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Jeff Bailey : 10/22/2006 11:26:10 PM

Last 3 Weekly Pivot Matrix found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/22/2006 11:18:04 PM

Weekly/Monthly Index Pivot Matrix found at this Link

Keene Little : 10/22/2006 10:42:22 PM

That's what I was thinking too Marc. That's why I was saying it's the grossest evidence of a stop run as I've ever seen. That's equivalent to stop running the DOW 200+ points.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/22/2006 10:40:44 PM

Keene, the T&S corraborates the spike up. It's pretty wicked and it lasted for enough time to stop out every single short out there. It also hit ES 1398 (could be a clue) and double top NQ at 1747.75. A 2% spike in two minutes is something I saw a year ago on a Sunday night as well. Pretty rare, but it happens. Screws up all the charts.

Keene Little : 10/22/2006 10:40:41 PM

While I'm not sure what the bullishness is all about in the early overnight session I thought I'd show two charts that show two different possibilities for the short term, both of which call for at leat a little more upside so perhaps this early spike up will see follow through in the morning. Then the question will be can new highs hold.

This ES 60-min chart shows the more bullish possibility but I had expected, as depicted on the chart, a quick dip before rallying. Obviously that may not happen. Running some Fib projections on the the leg up from Sept 22nd gives me a relatively wide range at this point of 1385-1395 for an upside target. Link

But I don't get the same bullish sense from the NYSE chart. I wonder if we'll see a gap up (based on the current futures) and then a failure to hold. Since the low on October 17th it looks like a small ascending wedge, with the negative divergences supporting the bearish interpretation. The trouble is we've seen many of these patterns failing to the upside and obviously the same thing could happen to this one. Link

If the wave count and bearish ascending wedge is correct, a bounce up above the wedge could tag the top of its larger ascending wedge for price action since July, currently near 8722. The longer term bearish divergence also supports the bearish interpretation here. A jump up to the top of the larger wedge, or a small throw-over, followed by a fall back under 8700 would be a sell signal. A drop back below 8600 would tell me we probably have a trend change in progress.

I'll update these charts as tomorrow progresses in hopes of determining what to expect for the coming week. For obvious reasons we'll need to be careful before we see what all this overnight bullishness is all about.

Keene Little : 10/22/2006 10:20:14 PM

Monday's pivot tables: Link and Link

Keene Little : 10/22/2006 10:17:41 PM

I just got back in from spending the day outside and was a little surprised to see that huge spike up in ES almost 30 minutes after it opened (spiked up at 18:26). I haven't checked any news (did Bin Laden get caught?) but that was either a real buying/short covering spike up to 1398 or else it was the grossest evidence of a stop run as I've ever seen. The volume for 2 minutes was very high (a little over 9K contracts in those 2 minutes) as the stops were hit. The 1-min chart shows it took about 5 minutes to return back under 1378 and then slowly settled back down to 1376 before rising back up to 1378.50 as I type, +4.25.

But the high registered by QCharts is 1378.50 and therefore I'm not sure if the spike "counts". In other words the trades up there may have been busted. That's just a guess since I'm not sure why QCharts is not registering anything higher than 1378.50. By the time YM opened at 19:15 ES was back down to the 1376.50 area. YM is also rising with ES now, with a high of 12073 for a 23 point gain. So we've got a bullish overnight session so far and we'll have to see what transpires before the cash market opens.

OI Technical Staff : 10/22/2006 9:59:59 PM

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Keene Little : 10/22/2006 9:56:47 PM

Monday's pivot tables: Link and Link

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