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Tab Gilles : 10/25/2006 12:18:58 AM

Biotechs sold off and oil stocks gained today...however after the close Murphy Oil Posted 3.5 Percent Drop in 3rd-Quarter Profit, Shares Fall on Guidance. Link Link

Atherogenics (AGIX) reported was down on the day but in AHT it is up. Link Link Link

Open Positions Portfolio & Stock Watch List Link


$NDXA50 & $NDXA200 Link Link

Bullish Percentage $BPNDX Link

Nasdaq Summation ($NASI) Link

Nasdaq High/Low $NAHL daily-ema Link

Profunds Ultra OTC (UOPIX) & Ultra SmallCap (UAPIX) Link Link

Keene Little : 10/24/2006 10:52:28 PM

I've been talking about an SPX target zone of 1378-1381. For a reminder, two equal legs up from the October 2005 low at 1168 (to the May high and then from the June low) gives us an upside target for a "measured" move at 1377.79. The Gann Square of Nine chart shows 1381 to be an important number (360 degrees + 180 degrees up from the 1168 low. I don't think the proximity of these numbers is coincidental and even with market manipulation there is a sense of balance and order to the market. This 1378-1381 would make for a natural place for a market turn.

If you're not interested in the details of why I'm liking this 1378-1381 area, skip to the bottom paragraph. Without getting into the gory details of the EW count, which has been a challenge to figure out since June, it's looking like an A-B-C up from June could be nearing completion. (It's an A-B-C rather than an impulsive 5-wave count because of the large ascending wedge playing out since 2004). The C-wave is the move up from the July low and an internal Fib projection for the 5th wave of the C-wave is at 1381.06. Not bad correlation.

Looking at this 5th wave up from the September 22nd low (also an A-B-C move because the C-wave is forming its own ascending wedge), this 60-min chart shows another small Fib projection for the final 5th wave of the smaller C-wave at 1380.43. Again, good correlation. Link

The fact that I'm getting so many Fibs and trend lines lining up in this 1378-1381 area makes me sit up and take notice. As I depict on the chart, if we get a choppy rise into Wednesday's FOMC announcement we could be set up to make a top in this market. If we see a bit of a sell off first then keep an eye on the uptrend line near 1370 for support before making a final assault (I think final) at a high.

Bottom line for me here is that SPX 1370 needs to hold on any pullback on Wednesday and if it holds then there's still the likelihood that we'll see it press higher towards 1381. If we see an early push higher that stalls at/under 1381, especially if it's a choppy rise into the afternoon, prepare for a sell off. I will of course update as this pattern changes.

Keene Little : 10/24/2006 10:06:01 PM

Wednesday's pivot tables: Link and Link

OI Technical Staff : 10/24/2006 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/24/2006 5:39:09 PM

I automate a lot of my trading with OCA's and conditionals and IB execute's flawlessly. In fact, overnight traders should always set up stop and close orders and use the OCA feature to be completely out when executed on target reach. Unless you want to stay up all night watching paint dry, automate your trading.

Keene Little : 10/24/2006 5:38:37 PM

Ronald, here's a screen shot of a chart I just pulled up for SPX from IB and a menu of the studies available. This is their real-time chart (I haven't added any studies to it) and they have a separate historical chart that comes from BigCharts.com. Link

Keene Little : 10/24/2006 5:33:12 PM

Ditto what Marc said in answering the readers's questions.

Jim Brown : 10/24/2006 5:33:10 PM

I use IB as well but not their charts. Also, don't expect any customer service. This is a low commission, low frills broker. Fast platform and I just reported today they are going to trade options in pennies to narrow the spreads even further.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/24/2006 5:33:35 PM

Would be interested on any comments on trading emini futures with Interactive Brokers as far as reliability and execution and also if their charting is adequate. I normally trade using multiple timeframes charts with DMI, MACD, and CCI indicators. Thanks, Ronald.

IB is fine, I use them. Good platform, the charts are much better than they used to be, they even give you pivots (stand alone software, not the web version), but I use Qcharts and Quote tracker for charting. In fact, IB has a great link with Quotetracker.
Make sure you set your stops for after hours trigger (configure/order/trigger). A note to everyone: if you trade QM, Nymex after hours market stops will not be honored, you must use limit. All others work pretty well.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/24/2006 5:25:15 PM

Ok, the trade is now above 1723.75. Pivot is 1727.50, so there is your scalp target. See you later.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/24/2006 4:48:57 PM

But realize that NQ is under the 10 dma, so this is a scalp trade until proven otherwise.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/24/2006 4:47:26 PM

Yes I know it is an NYSE stock, but it is a Vista play, so you need to watch it.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/24/2006 4:44:09 PM

Bit of a scalp trade with a very tight stop, but I see STX bouncing. If that fails, let it go until tomorrow.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/24/2006 4:42:43 PM

If STX bounces out of this, NQ is a buy right here at 1724, stop 1722.75.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/24/2006 4:37:23 PM

Seagate (STX) means much more to the tech sector than AMZN. This is why futures are down for now.

Keene Little : 10/24/2006 4:21:56 PM

I wonder if there was any significance about where SPX stopped today--1377.78 is a penny off its Fib target of 1377.79 which is where it has two equal legs up from October 2005. I don't expect it to hit it to the penny but it'll be interesting to watch it around here. There's still the Gann number at 1381.

It's possible we're seeing a small choppy move higher here as it sneaks in a top. That kind of high (as opposed to a quick stab higher that looks like a final exhaustion spike) would catch a lot of traders leaning the wrong way.

Jane Fox : 10/24/2006 4:17:27 PM

Dateline WSJ - Amazon.com Inc.'s profit slid 37% despite a sharp revenue climb as heavy spending continued to eat into the company's bottom line.

The Seattle-based online retailer reported third-quarter net income of $19 million, or five cents a share, compared with net income of $30 million, or seven cents a share, a year earlier.

Total revenue climbed 24% to $2.31 billion from $1.86 billion last year.

Amazon's spending on new technology and content, which rose 65% in the first half of the year, will take some time to pay off, analysts say. A prime example is Amazon Unbox, the company's much-anticipated video downloading service, which debuted in early September.

The company also spends heavily on promotional efforts and free shipping, including its Amazon Prime membership program.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/24/2006 4:15:38 PM

NQ closes right at 10 dma.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/24/2006 4:13:33 PM

Shorting NQ today at highs was a nice trade, but as with any shorts these days, trade the pivots religiosuly and get out (today S1 was support). I do not recommend shorting ES as it is the most manipulated of the lot and in fact also a heavily shorted index these days, so don't go there except on bounces. Never short ES on a breakdown. It has very few chances of succeeding if your stop is 2 points, unless the market is in a freefall. Not the case.

Jeff Bailey : 10/24/2006 4:11:07 PM

Buy Program Premium ... SPY $137.88 +0.29% : YM 12,177

Jeff Bailey : 10/24/2006 4:06:29 PM

Bearish swing trade put establish stop alert ... on the Exxon/Mobil XOM Nov. $70 Put (XOM-WN) at $70.35 in the underlying.

XOM $69.89 -0.04% at the close.

Marc Eckelberry : 10/24/2006 4:09:15 PM

Watch NQ 10 dma at 1725.75. A close belwow would be a first this month.
The big winners today are gold and oil (in the "must hold support" category). Strong reversal bounce off key 576 support for YG along with a strong rally by oil off July 2005 lows yesterday (58.15). The dollar is once again weaker as rates drop. It could all change tomorrow, but the game is still to accumulate gold on dips. If we get a confirmed inverse H&S for gold, upside target will be 648/650. Support at 580 is must hold now.

Keene Little : 10/24/2006 4:03:56 PM

Ho hum, another record DOW high. They should engineer this up just a point at a time so they can stetch it out to the elections.

Keene Little : 10/24/2006 3:58:34 PM

Can you spell distribution?

Jane Fox : 10/24/2006 3:58:17 PM

ES tags its PDH and retreats.

Keene Little : 10/24/2006 3:56:21 PM

We should be due for a sharp reversal back down tomorrow morning before rallying higher, IF we're going to rally higher out of this consolidation. If instead we continue to rally in this choppy fashion into tomorrow afternoon I'll be forced to short the market again.

Keene Little : 10/24/2006 3:51:46 PM

Here's an update to the Trannie chart I posted earlier. I had mentioned it could bounce up to about 4725 to retest its broken uptrend line from October 18th. That trend line is now closer to 4740 which would be another test of its high. A failure there would be a more significant one. A continuation higher would obviously be bullish. Link

Jane Fox : 10/24/2006 3:50:58 PM

ER and NQ are nowhere near their PDH.

Jane Fox : 10/24/2006 3:50:38 PM

YM has already broken past its PDH.

Jane Fox : 10/24/2006 3:50:22 PM

ES's PDH is 1384.50 so expect some resistance here.

Jeff Bailey : 10/24/2006 3:49:37 PM

I've got my pick for Jim's contest.

Jeff Bailey : 10/24/2006 3:48:23 PM

Altria (MO) Moody's Upgrade Story Link ... This is/was likely the intra-day reason stock found a bid.

Jane Fox : 10/24/2006 3:47:42 PM

TICKS +1000

Jeff Bailey : 10/24/2006 3:46:57 PM

Altria (MO) $79.85 -0.38% ... Morgan Stanley analyst note story Link

Keene Little : 10/24/2006 3:39:57 PM

Jeff, I looked at it. I thought if you're bailing on RIO maybe I should take the other side ;-).

But RIO looks like it could rally just a bit further. At 25.21 it's getting close to a 62% retracement of its May-June decline so who knows, it could be close to a high. It's in the process of finishing a 5-wave move up from its September low so I think this leg up is about done. I see an upside possibility to 26.55-27.10 if it can get past 25.45.

Jim Brown : 10/24/2006 3:37:03 PM

I don't know if anybody saw this press release from Interactive Brokers this morning:

Interactive Brokers is pleased to announce the immediate availability of Penny Option Pricing. This exciting development will be available to general investors sometime in 2007. However, IB clients can use IB's technology immediately to trade US options in penny price increments and gain maximum control over their options trading and investment strategies.

Jeff Bailey : 10/24/2006 3:33:37 PM

Hopefully I was the only one with them anyway.

Jeff Bailey : 10/24/2006 3:32:51 PM

Thought for sure I could get Keene to take them earlier this morning. ;)

Jeff Bailey : 10/24/2006 3:30:17 PM

Go bid alert ... Can't get an up-tick to save my soul!

Going bid on the RIO-XX at $0.30 with RIO $25.26 +4.03%

Keene Little : 10/24/2006 3:28:48 PM

GE is making new daily lows as well. Its pattern does not look healthy to me. A 3-wave bounce off last week's low looks like it will be followed by new lows. This is the stock that reflects the health of the economy, or so they say. It looks like it should drop down to its 50-dma soon (at 34.87 and currently printing 35.35).

Keene Little : 10/24/2006 3:25:31 PM

YM and ES made that push to new daily highs and SMH just made a new daily low. Not a lot of clarity yet.

Jane Fox : 10/24/2006 3:19:20 PM

How are our ducks doing? Two of them are lined up, the AD volume and VIX but I see the TRIN is off in nadda land. However if you look at it a little closer you will see 0.79 is still a pretty bullish number. So as far as I can see all is well in bull country. Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/24/2006 3:16:50 PM

Has given YM and DIA a boost last 10 minutes.

Jeff Bailey : 10/24/2006 3:16:10 PM

I closed out the Jan $80 Calls yesterday, but had an al_rt set at $81.00

Jeff Bailey : 10/24/2006 3:15:31 PM

Altria (MO) alert $80.90 +0.86% ... surging from $79.20

Jeff Bailey : 10/24/2006 3:07:42 PM

03:05 Market Watch found at this Link

Keene Little : 10/24/2006 3:02:06 PM

Build it and they will come.

Jim Brown : 10/24/2006 2:57:54 PM

I have been thinking about having an energy seminar. I would organize presentations from the top 20 energy companies, not the largest but ones that are on the top of my investment list. They would present 30 min each telling attendees why they should invest in their stock and then take questions from the floor. I would have some speakers on Peak Oil and its current status and some rebuttal speakers who think we will never run out. I have talked to a couple of speakers who would talk on current technology and discuss things like oil shale, tar sands, coal to liquids, etc. It would be a 3 day seminar somewhere like Vegas and cost about $995 a person. What do you think? Do you think anybody would come?

Keene Little : 10/24/2006 2:45:23 PM

Hey Jim, when are we going to have another one those seminars? That was a really good one and I've been to a few.

Jeff Bailey : 10/24/2006 2:41:37 PM

Oil Service HOLDRs (OIH) $133.59 +2.92% ... get a trade at WEEKLY R1 ($133.57)

Jim Brown : 10/24/2006 2:41:03 PM

Reader Challenge Alert - This week's reader challenge is going to be a little different. It is nice to play pin the tail on the indexes as we have the last couple weeks but it does not help us make any money. This week we need to make some money to support our trading habit.

I am going to ask everyone to submit a play for next week. The person whose play makes the most money will win a copy of an Option Investor Seminar on video. This is the seminar package we sold for $1,995 several years ago. There are videos of numerous Option Investor traders including myself, Jeff Bailey, Austin Passamonte and about a dozen others. There is a huge workbook with all the power point slides from three days of presentations. While the charts will be old the option training is still 100% the same.

Here is how this will work:

I want you to submit a potential option play to me by email at jim@optioninvestor.com before the close on Thursday. I will organize them and then list them in the monitor on Friday. The starting price will be Friday's closing price. Monitor readers can follow along with any plays they choose. The play that gains the most on a percentage basis by next Friday's close (11/3) will be the winner.

You can't say "short the QQQQ" or "buy Google". You have to give a specific option like a "QQQQ $45 Call option QQQ-LS." You need also to give a two or three sentence reason why you are recommending the play. Nothing fancy but before readers blindly put on money on it they will want to know why. Equity options plays only, no futures.

I will list the plays on Friday 10/27 but without names. I don't want anybody to not play because they are afraid of being embarrassed if the play does not work. Been there, done that! I will disclose the names on the top 3 plays at the end of next week. I will also give number 2 and 3 a prize but I have not decided yet what it will be.

Put on those thinking caps and fire up your chart programs. Let's make some money next week!

Jeff Bailey : 10/24/2006 2:35:50 PM

Companhia Vale Do Rio Doce (RIO) $25.23 +3.91% ... Today's trade at $25.00 gets the stock back on a "buy signal." Dorsey/Wright lists the stock as a METAls Non Ferrous.

On 09/15/06 RIO was trading $20.85, fell to as low as $19.16 intra-day on 09/15/06 ($19.50 on chart), and for the most part, has traded higher since.

Keene Little : 10/24/2006 2:36:01 PM

If the current little bounce is just part of a larger sideways consolidation then watch for resistance at two equal legs up from the low near 1:00. That's at YM 12169 and ES 1382.25, being tagged as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 10/24/2006 2:23:40 PM

Swing trade put cancel order alert, then replace ... Cancel prior order to sell the two (2) RIO-XX for $0.40 and replace with $0.35.

Jeff Bailey : 10/24/2006 2:21:09 PM

09/15/06 to 10/23/06 Sector Bell Curve found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/24/2006 2:10:11 PM

09/08/06 to 09/15/06 Bell Curve Link ... what sectors do you think SHOULD have shown further internal strength/weakness?

Jeff Bailey : 10/24/2006 2:06:57 PM

Question from Richard: ... Could you please post a current "sector bell curve". I am curious to compare it to your last post in September on the 18.

Reply ... coming up!

Keene Little : 10/24/2006 2:05:31 PM

The rally from the June/July lows has been one of the more difficult ones I've tried to tag an EW count on to. The stair-stepping higher hasn't looked like the normal ebb and flow of selling and buying but instead looks more manipulated. EW Theory depends on normal buying and selling which reflects human emotions in the market. It's been a challenge to say the least.

The DOW though has reached a level where I'm paying close attention to what happens from here. In its count from the July low I show a Fib projection for the 5th wave up at 12135 (cash) which is where it is equal to wave-1 (the move up from July to the August 4th high). This is probably the most common relationship between the 1st and 5th waves. Today's high thus far is just under 12134. Link

For EW followers, I've got each of the 5 waves in the move up counted as a corrective count. I could force an impulsive count in there but it doesn't look right and a corrective count within each of the 5 waves would indicate an ending pattern which I believe this to be.

While the current high level consolidation looks bullish, this wave count and Fib projection makes me wonder about the bullish outcome here. Could this be the consolidation that fails and takes out the bulls who are jumping in long on this? Certainly a possibility. It takes a break below Monday's 11972 (cash) low to confirm that a high of importance is in.

Otherwise I show another upside Fib target at DOW 12197, which is based on the internal wave count within the 5th wave up. That could coincide with an SPX high near 1381 and would be extremely tempting to short. In the meantime it's a bit of a coin toss here and I don't like to play coin tosses.

Jeff Bailey : 10/24/2006 2:02:27 PM

FOMC 2-Day Meeting Begins at 02:00 PM EDT, As Scheduled

Jeff Bailey : 10/24/2006 1:57:18 PM

U.S. House Speaker Hastert Goes Before Ethics Panel

DJ- House Speaker Dennis Hastert on Tuesday sat down with ethics investigators trying to pin down when he and his staff learned about ex-Rep. Mark Foley's come-ons to congressional pages and what they did to stop it.

The timeline that Hastert and his staff have given conflicts with the accounts of others. Hastert, R-Ill., has said that he didn't find out about Foley until late September, when Foley's approaches to the former pages became public.

Jeff Bailey : 10/24/2006 1:52:11 PM

November and December Fed Funds futures (ff06x)/(ff06z) are 94.75. (100 - 94.75 = 5.25%), thus predicting no Fed action.

Keene Little : 10/24/2006 1:30:09 PM

If the current pullback is to see a bullish resolution out of it, this shows what I could see happening, especially if we just meander sideways/down into tomorrow's FOMC announcement. Link

If ES slides on down to its uptrend line from September 22nd, say near 1370 (cash) by tomorrow afternoon, we could then get a fast rally up to a new high where it would bang its head on the trend line along the highs from August 4th. Just maybe that would be the last one. I'm still thinking SPX 1378-1381 is going to mark a turning point for this market. We might have topped or another new high could do it. It takes a firm break below it's uptrend line to tell me we might have seen THE high.

Jeff Bailey : 10/24/2006 1:18:08 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

The NASDAQ's 5-Day NH/NL ratio is currently colored "red" as it is below its 10-day NH/NL ratio. It would currently take a 78.00 or lower reading for the NASDAQ's 5-day NH/NL ratio to reverse lower by 3 boxes (point and figure chart).

Jane Fox : 10/24/2006 1:13:14 PM

Even though the AD line is saying don't be long the VIX hugging daily lows is telling me not to be short.

Keene Little : 10/24/2006 1:06:49 PM

GM has been on a tear this week, up another 2.6% today, making new highs here at 36.17. Pretty amazing when you think this stock was half this price back in April. I guess making cars nobody wants anymore (OK, that was mean) is good for business.

Jeff Bailey : 10/24/2006 1:02:23 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 10/24/2006 1:02:13 PM

I see the AD volume falling but the VIX and TRIN are mostly just meandering sideways. Still no clear direction but you must keep in mind that the AD line has spent most of the day BELOW 0. This is not bullish folks.

Keene Little : 10/24/2006 12:57:50 PM

It would take a break below ES 1376.50 to tell me something more bearish is going on so that would have to be your stop level if you want to try a long play. Better to just use a normal 2-pt stop and try it again if you like the setup. I don't like the long side, period. But that's nothing new. Breaking lower as I type.

Jane Fox : 10/24/2006 12:56:45 PM

Here is how the markets are trading in relation to their PDRs. Link

Keene Little : 10/24/2006 12:55:31 PM

ES has already pulled back to its potential support level where it has two equal legs down at 1379.50.

Keene Little : 10/24/2006 12:54:14 PM

If you like the idea of trying a long out of this consolidation, the current pullback is your opportunity to try it. Two equal legs down from the high around noon is at YM 12144 and would be the first place I would look for support.

Keene Little : 10/24/2006 12:49:34 PM

Jeff, you've seen my head, eh?

Jeff Bailey : 10/24/2006 12:46:32 PM

SPY ... a MACD trader that looks at its 60-minute chart has been pulling his/her hair out since about $131.00.

Keene Little : 10/24/2006 12:43:19 PM

The COMP could get a bounce here though. It's come back down to its broken downtrend line from the 16th. Link

Keene Little : 10/24/2006 12:41:21 PM

Techs making new lows.

Jeff Bailey : 10/24/2006 12:39:45 PM

VIX.X 11.10 +0.18% ... "nailed" to its WEEKLY Pivot.

SPY $137.48 (unch) ... I get the feeling, based on observation that there's some downside potential with Fed just ahead.

Keene Little : 10/24/2006 12:38:39 PM

If the market continues to hold up, and especially if it runs a little higher as we approach the FOMC announcement tomorrow, I can only think the market is setting itself up for a big disappointment. Everything good is now priced into the market. With the number of non-confirmations we're seeing I think we're getting our warning shots across the bow.

Keene Little : 10/24/2006 12:34:35 PM

ES and YM look like they're in another bullish consolidation since yesterday's high. If this is to resolve to the upside again it should happen after one more pullback which should stay above this morning's low. The one caution is that one of these days a bullish-looking consolidation is going to fail hard because too many traders have become accustomed to seeing it take off to the upside again. And that kind of failure is usually fast so if you try a long don't let it go much against you.

Jeff Bailey : 10/24/2006 12:30:30 PM


DJ- Asset manager posts net income of $143.7 million, or $1 a share, in line with firm's warning from earlier this month. Revenue more than doubles to $1.03 billion amid recent acquisitions.

LM $86.77 +0.15% Link ... Note: LM warned on 10/11/06 and is an equal weighted component of the XBD.X.

Keene Little : 10/24/2006 12:21:09 PM

The Trannies have provided a glaring non-confirmation of the rally in the DOW and it continues to look weaker. After breaking its uptrend line from September 25th, yesterday's retest and failure at the line looks like another kiss goodbye. Link

Now on a smaller time frame, the uptrend line from the low on the 18th was broken yesterday and today's bounce might try for a retest of that line, currently near 4725. Another failure there would likely send it much lower and that would be another heads up that the broader market's rally could be on borrowed time here.

Jeff Bailey : 10/24/2006 12:20:57 PM


DJ- Lucent earns $371 million, or 7c a share, as revenue rises 5.3% to $2.56 billion. Merger partner Alcatel sees its 3Q net drop bigger-than-expected 42% due to intensifying competition in the mobile-phone equipment market.

LU $2.51 +7.26% Link

ALA $12.99 +7.98% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 10/24/2006 12:14:48 PM


DJ- Railroad company reports earnings of $488 million, or $1.33 a share, besting analysts' expectations of $1.30 a share. Revenue rises 19% to $3.94 billion, also ahead of Wall Street estimates. Firm sees 4Q EPS growth of 20%-25%.

BNI $78.24 -0.96% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 10/24/2006 12:12:13 PM


DJ- Copper producer earns $888 million, or $4.36 a share, which includes 54c charge and 17c gain. Sales rise 59% to $3.46 billion. Analysts expected EPS of $4.85.

PD $97.50 -1.52% Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/24/2006 12:04:43 PM


DJ- Online broker's net income jumps to $128.1 million, or 21c a share, as revenue soars 78% to $488.7 million amid acquisition. Firm posts non-GAAP earnings of 25c. Analysts expected EPS of 22c. Company lowers fiscal 2007 view by 1c.

AMTD $15.97 -3.96% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 10/24/2006 12:02:56 PM


DJ- Chicago Mercantile Exchange Holdings posts net income of $104 million, or $2.95 a share, beating analysts' expectations of $2.87. Revenue increases 22% to $275 million as average daily volume rises 28%.

CME $497.71 -1.10% Link ...

Jane Fox : 10/24/2006 11:42:05 AM

Ducks knew where they were supposed to go but got confused along the way. Like I said Land of confusion today.

Jane Fox : 10/24/2006 11:41:18 AM

Yup that is exactly what those darn ducks did today, Keene.

Keene Little : 10/24/2006 11:40:14 AM

Jane, ever see a line of ducks start across the road, they stop all traffic and then they stand there wondering which way to go? I'm getting that sense here. FOMC lock on the market already?

Jane Fox : 10/24/2006 11:31:01 AM

Ducks knew where they were heading this morning.

Jeff Bailey : 10/24/2006 11:29:52 AM

Swing trade put close out alert ... with RIO $25.10 +3.37% ... close out the two (2) RIO Dec $22.50 Puts (RIO-XX) for $0.40 (currently $0.35 x $0.45)

Jeff Bailey : 10/24/2006 11:26:07 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 10/24/2006 11:25:33 AM

Looking at the little squiggles here and trying to get a sense of which way this is going to go. If NQ gets only a small 3-wave bounce off its low and hits two equal legs up at 1729.75 and rolls back over I would look for new lows. The bounce in ES and YM are not looking bullish and it's making me think the market will roll back over. But we've been here before.

Jane Fox : 10/24/2006 11:08:56 AM

All your ducks in a row would be AD volume climbing, VIX and TRIN falling. Link

Keene Little : 10/24/2006 11:06:42 AM

At this point ES looks like it's in a bull flag pullback. It's got a choppy look to it which looks bullish. Based on that I'd say we should be looking to buy it. But I don't like the other signals I'm getting from the market--the techs in particular. The banks and brokers are bordering on bearishness here.

So the mixed signals this morning tell me it's probably better to wait for clarity (that's a relative term) before jumping on a direction. If ES were to break down from this bull flag then it will be a bearish sign. Until then the short side is still risky.

Jeff Bailey : 10/24/2006 11:02:02 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Keene Little : 10/24/2006 10:57:05 AM

NQ had attempted to recapture its uptrend line from October 3rd but failed to do so. At this point it looks like a kiss goodbye. But if it can bounce back up here it's still possible we're seeing only a corrective 3-wave pullback that will lead to another push higher. It takes a break below yesterday morning's low of 1713.25 to make a more bearish statement. Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/24/2006 10:55:00 AM

RIO update alert ... with RIO acquiring more than 75% of Inco's shares, it does NOT look to me as if a bidding war will continue, or at least NOT have negative impact.

Jane Fox : 10/24/2006 10:52:45 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The dollar traded fractionally higher against major currencies Tuesday, continuing to draw support from expectations that the Federal Reserve will highlight its concerns over inflation at the conclusion of its interest-rate meeting Wednesday.

The Federal Open Market Committee started its two-day policy meeting and will announce its interest-rate decision Wednesday at 2:15 p.m. Eastern. This would be the third straight Federal Open Market Committee meeting with no change in policy after the central bank pushed interest rates higher in 17 straight meetings starting in 2004 and ending in June. The Fed funds rate is now at 5.25%.

"The market's view of the Fed stance has turned more hawkish in recent days and this is buoying the greenback," said Marc Chandler, global head of currency strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman. "The risk is that the pendulum of market sentiment is over-correcting, like some driver who drifted in the wrong lane is apt to do."

Jane Fox : 10/24/2006 10:51:14 AM

Brinker International (EAT) said fiscal first-quarter earnings rose to $47.6 million, or 57 cents a share, from $31.8 million, or 36 cents a share, a year earlier. Revenue increased to $1.04 billion from last year's $975.9 million, as restaurant capacity growth of 7.3% offset a 2.1% decline in same-store sales. Analysts surveyed by Thomson First Call had been expecting earnings of 46 cents a share and revenue of $1.04 billion, on average.

Jeff Bailey : 10/24/2006 10:50:12 AM

Companhia Vale Do Rio Doce (RIO) $24.81 +2.18% ... Takes control of Inco, acquires more than 75% of shares, extends offer Link

Jane Fox : 10/24/2006 10:48:56 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Douglas Emmett took its place among the richest initial public offerings of the year Tuesday as the real estate investment trust with properties in Los Angeles and Honolulu raised more than $1.4 billion.

In a sign of strong investor interest, Douglas Emmett (DEI) increased the size of its initial public offering to 66 million shares and priced at $21 a share.

The Santa Clara, Calif. company priced at the top of its $19-$21 price range and added 10 million shares as Wall Street eyed its role in luxury real estate markets.

It's only the fourth U.S. IPO this year to raise more than $1 billion, along with Warner Chilcott (WCRX) , MasterCard (MA) and SAIC (SAI)

Douglas Emmett bills itself as one of the largest owners and operators of high-quality office and multifamily properties in Los Angeles and Honolulu.

Keene Little : 10/24/2006 10:45:18 AM

NQ is now breaking below the bottom of the flag I showed. Not good for the bulls. The semis have been consolidating near their recent low as shown in this SMH 60-min chart. Also note how MACD has come up to the zero line and is threatening to roll back over. When you see MACD return to the zero line and then "bounce" off it that's usually a good sign the original direction will resume, down in this case. Link

Jane Fox : 10/24/2006 10:45:15 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Lockheed Martin Corp. said Tuesday its third-quarter net income jumped 47%, helped by improved profit for its combat aircraft-making unit and its systems and technology businesses.

The No. 1 defense contractor also lifted its 2006 earnings forecasts, expecting better margins at its aeronautics unit and a lower tax expense.

Lockheed (LMT) said Tuesday its third-quarter net income rose to $629 million, or $1.46 a share, from $427 million, or 96 cents a share, in the year-earlier period. Its tax rate dropped to 22.8% in the quarter from 30.3% a year ago.

Analysts polled by Thomson First Call forecast earnings, on average, of $1.24 a share.

Jeff Bailey : 10/24/2006 10:44:52 AM

Semiconductor HOLDRs (SMH) $33.64 -0.62% ... 60-minute interval chart at this Link ... Easy to pick up on the SMH's leading weakness within the pivot levels.

Jane Fox : 10/24/2006 10:39:16 AM

Wasn't there a song called Land of Confusion? Me thinks Phil Collins.

Jane Fox : 10/24/2006 10:38:43 AM

These two are all over the place and are giving no hint as to direction. To add to the confusion please take note that the AD line is UNDER 0 and AD volume ABOVE. Link

Jane Fox : 10/24/2006 10:28:26 AM

Those buy programs are still coming fast and furious.

Jane Fox : 10/24/2006 10:28:01 AM

TICKS +800.

Jeff Bailey : 10/24/2006 10:23:02 AM

QQQQ 60-minute interval chart Link ... GOOG was big winner last couple of sessions and it is a market cap heavyweight. Software, biotech and semiconductors are sector heavyweights.

Keene Little : 10/24/2006 10:19:47 AM

Looking at NQ, it has pulled back to the bottom of a potential bull flag at 1728. Obviously the bulls are hoping this is in fact a bull flag whereas the bears want to see price break down below the flag. A bread down from here could start to accelerate lower. Link

Jeff Bailey : 10/24/2006 10:09:37 AM

10:07 Market Watch found at this Link

Keene Little : 10/24/2006 10:05:42 AM

Brokers to a new daily low here. That spike up may have been nothing but a liquidity push--the Boyz jam it higher to get a lot of buying going (short covering and longs) and sell into it. In other words more evidence of distribution.

Keene Little : 10/24/2006 10:02:50 AM

Brokers are also not participating in this morning's rally. Without the banks and brokers participating in a rally it becomes suspect.

Jeff Bailey : 10/24/2006 10:00:31 AM

S&P Dep. Receipts (SPY) $137.55 +0.05% ... same chart as shown in last night's Market Wrap, but 60-minute intervals Link ... At this point I see a pattern of WEEKLY Pivot finding buyers, then a new high. Weekly Pivot, then a new high. Weekly Pivot, then a new high. Weekly Pivot then a new high.

Keene Little : 10/24/2006 10:00:21 AM

Another small push higher would give us YM 12188 and my first look-see for a short play.

Jane Fox : 10/24/2006 9:55:13 AM

VIX is making new daily lows confirming ES's new daily highs so all is well here.

Jane Fox : 10/24/2006 9:54:37 AM

AD line hit a low of -952 but has recovered to -15. AD volume is above 0 and climbing. No clear winner yet.

Keene Little : 10/24/2006 9:53:25 AM

The DOW is trying to rally without the banks. That's not what the bulls want to see. BIX is testing the lows of the past week.

Jane Fox : 10/24/2006 9:47:34 AM

TICKS +800 and the rescue team has arrived.

Keene Little : 10/24/2006 9:39:03 AM

Oh look, a buying spike out of nowhere. We haven't seen one of those in a while (said tongue in cheek).

Jane Fox : 10/24/2006 9:37:30 AM

New York, June 21, 2006 - ProShares, together with The American Stock Exchange (Amex), today announced the launch of eight new innovative exchange traded funds (ETFs) designed to make it easier for investors to get short or magnified exposure to an index.

Four Short ProShares are the first ETFs designed to provide short exposure to well-known market indexes, seeking daily investment results that correspond to the inverse of those indexes, before fees and expenses. Four Ultra ProShares are the first ETFs designed to magnify daily index performance. They seek daily investment results that correspond to twice the performance of their underlying indexes, before fees and expenses.

Names of ProShares, their objectives and ticker symbols:
Short ProShares
Short QQQ ProShares Inverse of the NASDAQ-100 Index PSQ
Short S&P500 ProShares Inverse of the S&P 500 Index SH
Short MidCap400 ProShares Inverse of the S&P MidCap 400 Index MYY
Short Dow30 ProShares Inverse of the Dow Jones Industrial Average DOG
Ultra ProShares
Ultra QQQ ProShares Double the NASDAQ-100 Index QLD
Ultra S&P500 ProShares Double the S&P 500 Index SSO
Ultra MidCap400 ProShares Double the S&P MidCap 400 Index MVV
Ultra Dow30 ProShares Double the Dow Jones Industrial Average DDM

Keene Little : 10/24/2006 9:24:35 AM

There's a Fib projection for YM at 12188 which is at the top of its parallel up-channel for price action since October 3rd. If we get an early rally this morning I'll be watching that level for resistance and the first opportunity for a short play. Link

There's another reason why just a small push higher may be it for this market. SPX hit a potentially important level yesterday by nearly tagging 1377.79 (it reached 1377.40). That's the level where the leg up from the June low equals the leg up from October 2005 to the May high. These measured moves are often reversal points.

Another level of importance for SPX comes off its Gann Square of Nine chart. This chart has an uncanny ability to show where market turns will occur. Using the same October 2005 low of 1168, going 360 degrees around the chart (1309) and then another 180 degrees gives us 1381. Therefore I'm thinking 1377-1381 will be where the market tops out. Bold prediction but maybe not so bold. We know this rubber band has been stretched.

Jane Fox : 10/24/2006 9:19:49 AM

BOSTON (MarketWatch) -- M.D.C. Holdings Inc. before the opening bell Tuesday reported third-quarter net income fell 60% as profit margins narrowed in more competitive markets and home orders plunged 40% from a year earlier.

Profit at the Denver home builder (MDC) dropped to $48.7 million, or $1.06 a share, from $121 million, or $2.62 a share in the year-earlier period. Sales fell to $1.08 billion from $1.17 billion. A survey of analysts by Thomson First Call produced consensus estimates of $1.35 a share of profit on $1.09 billion of revenue.

The "operating environment in most markets became increasingly competitive in the face of continued expansion of unsold new and existing home inventories," said Larry A. Mizel, chairman and chief executive, in a statement.

M.D.C. shares are off about 21% for the year-to-date period.

Jane Fox : 10/24/2006 9:18:57 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Treasury prices were slightly higher early Tuesday, pushing yields down a bit, as the Federal Open Market Committee's two-day deliberation on interest rates got underway.

The Federal Reserve's monetary policy committee convened at 9 a.m. and will unveil a rate decision on Wednesday.

"There were few trading incentives, though the front end remained heavy in front of today's $20 billion 2-year notes auction, and as Fed policy expectations shift to the hawkish side," said Action Economics.

Bond market participants generally expect the Fed to leave rates on hold this week. However, the market is less certain than it was last month that a rate reduction is on the way.

Jane Fox : 10/24/2006 9:15:34 AM

Dateline WSJ - LONDON -- BP PLC said Tuesday its third-quarter earnings fell 3.6%, as a partial shutdown of its Alaskan oil field and a United Kingdom tax increase more than offset a rise in oil prices. The oil company also warned average daily production for the year would be lower than in 2005.

The U.K.-based company said net profit for the three months ended Sept. 30 stood at $6.23 billion, or 31.4 cents a share, compared with $6.46 billion, or 30.5 cents a share, a year earlier. Revenue rose 4.1% to $70.73 billion from $67.96 billion.

BP's numbers conform to international financial-reporting standards, which differ from U.S. generally accepted accounting principles.

Jane Fox : 10/24/2006 9:05:50 AM

Gold is testing its upper trendline of the bullish wedge and is giving Goldbugs a major ulcer. Will that trendline hold up as support? The MACD says it will but unforatunately we don't have a confirmation from the RSI. I think Gold will make a higher low here which would make a very nice reverse H&S but I certainly don't think Gold will make any new yearly highs.

I am bullish shortterm but bearish longer term. Link

Jane Fox : 10/24/2006 8:55:08 AM

Equity markets reopended for their overnight session and have moved in an almost straight line every since. Very quiet overnight session. Link

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