Option Investor
Printer friendly version
Tab Gilles : 11/2/2006 12:02:41 AM


Put 50% of that money into the Profund UltraShort OTC (USPIX) and Short Small-Cap (SHPIX).

Open Positions Portfolio & Stock Watch List Link

$NALOW 10/15-ema Link Link

$NDX Link

Profunds UOPIX, UAPIX, USPIX & SHPIX Link Link Link Link

Keene Little : 11/1/2006 11:10:32 PM

Thursday's pivot tables: Link and Link

OI Technical Staff : 11/1/2006 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 11/1/2006 9:40:15 PM

LEH really got hit harder than other XBD.X components, with MS -3.48%. LEH has more of a specialty in bonds and the recent weakness in the dollar, and today's sharp move lower, may have been viewed as a negative too.

Weakness in dollar has the look that money leaving some U.S. assets, but it sure isn't leaving the bond market.

Jeff Bailey : 11/1/2006 9:36:08 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List at this Link

Stopped out of the LEH long at adjusted stop (from $76.00 to $75.94).

Closed out the BGO at $4.41, but looking for re-entry back at $4.30.

Jeff Bailey : 11/1/2006 9:22:47 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/1/2006 8:59:30 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/1/2006 8:52:55 PM

SPY Most Active Options at this Link

Most notable in my opinion is that while not the most active, a very bullish (15up to 1down) bias at the $136 Call. My best guess here is that somebody wrote a lot of NAKED calls and trying to get squared up today? If so, then a "buy to close" transaction (just the opposite of a buy to open) would have OpenInterest falling.

The arrows I've placed by/under Title, would depict a BIAS, based on the Dn/UpTick trade of that option.

If you're trading a LONG PUT option for November, or have been holding some for a couple of weeks now (let alone several weeks and are way out the money $132-$136), you'll want to be VERY ALERT should you see a near-term VIX.X spike close to a 14.00 measure, perhaps REGARDLESS of where the SPY itself is trading. VIX 13.95 is at November's MONTHLY R2.

Keene Little : 11/1/2006 5:23:22 PM

The COMP looks the same as NDX in that it has dropped to its uptrend line from August and its 20-dma. Actually as can be seen in this 240-min chart it has run sideways over to its uptrend line. If I looked at nothing else other than this chart I'd be buying this big time. Link

In the bull vs. bear debate this chart is the Democrat's--it's theirs to lose. If the bulls lose the battle here it's all over for them and we could see some swift selling hitting the market. This is one of those edge-of-the-cliff plays where the odds tell you to buy this, especially since you can keep your stop very tight (just watch for the head fake break). I still don't like the upside but I'm trying to fight my bearish bias and this chart has me paying attention.

Keene Little : 11/1/2006 5:10:25 PM

Looking at the RUT however makes me think Jim is in the right play--short that puppy and hang on for dear life. As usual we have mixed signals, including between indices, which is going to make it much more difficult to determine whether or not we've made an important high. I sure wish they'd just ring the bell at the high but of course then there wouldn't be any market. Confusion is important in order to maintain the constant bull vs. bear battle.

Keene Little : 11/1/2006 5:00:53 PM

Well, maybe trying a long here is not such a bad idea after all. The techs got beat to the downside almost as hard as the small caps and yet NDX stopped at its uptrend line from August, at its 20-dma and it hit the level where it had two equal legs down from the high on October 26th (just under NDX 1706). In other words it could count as an A-B-C pullback from that high and now it's ready to rally back up. Link

Having seen this market perform over the past couple of months I've learned to not discount the possibility for a continuation higher in the face of lots of bearish signals. For one thing, if there's still a lot of money coming into the market from the Fed then that money will float all boats.

Jeff Bailey : 11/1/2006 4:35:48 PM

Phelps Dodge (PD) $96.27 -4.09% Link

Keene Little : 11/1/2006 4:34:26 PM

The DOW was ahead of SPX in breaking its uptrend line along the bottoms of RSI on its daily chart and today SPX has done the same. Those uptrend lines are from July and to me that's a big heads up that we're at the start of a trend change. The DOW and SPX are hitting their 20-dma's so the test is here and now for the bulls. Other than ES making brief spikes below that moving average back in August and early September (YM stayed above it or didn't even pull back to it), there hasn't been a close below the 20-dma since July.

By the same token, if you believe this market is headed higher, buying support at the 20-dma is the right play. For YM that's at 12030 and for ES it's just under 1372.50 (where it's currently trading). Based on some mixed signals, including some very bearish ones, I can't recommend a long play at this time. But I've been wrong a couple of times during this rally so take that recommendation fwiw.

Jeff Bailey : 11/1/2006 4:25:14 PM

December Copper (hg06z) closed below trend and does look to be breaking below HUGE pennant Link

Jane Fox : 11/1/2006 4:14:49 PM

Economic Reports for Tomorrow include.

8:30a.m. Initial Jobless Claims. For Oct 28 Week. Consensus: +2K. Previous: +8K.

8:30a.m. 3Q Preliminary Productivity. Consensus: +1.0%. Previous: +1.6%.

8:30a.m. 3Q Preliminary Unit Labor Costs. Consensus: +3.5%. Previous: +4.9%.

10:00a.m. Sept Factory Orders. Consensus: +3.6%. Previous: Unch.

Keene Little : 11/1/2006 4:14:07 PM

The parallel down-channel for ES will also be important to watch. If the 5-wave move down, as labeled on the chart, marks the end of this leg down, it should break above the channel tomorrow (currently at 1374.75). If price continues to find resistance at its downtrend line then we should look for this to stair-step lower tomorrow. Easy, no? If only. Link

Keene Little : 11/1/2006 4:10:20 PM

The shocker is that DOW 12K held (wink). There may be some bearish things afoot here though. From an EW perspective a small bounce that fails and heads for new lows tomorrow morning would be bearish. And it would likely mean DOW 12K is breaking. But until that happens I'll stick with my long hedge position and see how it sets up tomorrow morning. I got long at 1371 so at least I can keep my stop very tight right now.

Jim Brown : 11/1/2006 4:09:38 PM

My ER short from 772 yesterday is feeling pretty good tonight. I wrote that I expected it to be a multi-day position and I still believe that. The Russell futures were down a whopping -17 points today when the Dow was only down -49 and the S&P -10. I wrote twice last week in my market wraps that the Russell would be the canary in the coal mine and it did exactly that. My first target for a partial exit is 740 with a complete exit at 720 if I should be so lucky.

Jeff Bailey : 11/1/2006 4:11:12 PM

Final tally of sell program premiums for S&P 500 (arbitrage between cash and futures) looks to be 6.

Keene Little : 11/1/2006 3:50:41 PM

Brokers also still heading lower, now down -2.3%. That one also looks like a strong 3rd of a 3rd wave down this afternoon and makes me think only small bounces and more lows tomorrow. I'm starting to rethink this hedge position of mine. I don't particularly like the upside from here when I look at some of the other indices/sectors.

Keene Little : 11/1/2006 3:48:46 PM

One bearish thing I see, looking at the COMP for today's price action, is the possibility we had a quick 1-2, 1-2 wave count down from this morning's gap up. The strong decline from the high just before 2:00 looks like a 3rd of a 3rd wave down (strong and fast). That suggests we'll only see a couple of sideways/up bounces followed by stair-stepping lower tomorrow. I may not hang around in my long hedge for long if I see that setting up tomorrow morning.

Keene Little : 11/1/2006 3:45:36 PM

RUT and NAZ still making new lows.

Keene Little : 11/1/2006 3:44:38 PM

FYI I'm only looking for a bounce into tomorrow and I'm playing ES long to hedge my longer term short positions. But just in case that DOW chart is correct about another run to a new high...

Keene Little : 11/1/2006 3:41:49 PM

Come on bulls (and nervous shorts), don't let me down now.

Keene Little : 11/1/2006 3:37:21 PM

ES tagged 1371. From a perfect Fib projection standpoint now, 1370.50 should hold as support. And of course DOW 12K. I like it for an attempt at the long side here, stop at 1398.50.

Jeff Bailey : 11/1/2006 3:37:15 PM

Bullish swing trade long alert ... GTC for 1/2 bullish position in shares of Bema Gold (BGO) $4.43 +2.30% ... to go long at $4.31

Jeff Bailey : 11/1/2006 3:30:26 PM

Bullish swing trade exit alert ... for Bema Gold (BGO) $4.41 ... $HUI.X fading fast.

Keene Little : 11/1/2006 3:28:09 PM

As long as DOW 12K holds I suspect shorts are going to want to cover before the close. That should give us a boost into the close so watch for that possibility.

Jeff Bailey : 11/1/2006 3:19:21 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 11/1/2006 3:18:29 PM

The RUT is still making new lows.

Keene Little : 11/1/2006 3:16:49 PM

The DOW should lead us in the bounce so if YM gets back above 12060 I'd say the low is in.

Jane Fox : 11/1/2006 3:14:34 PM

The bullish markets today have been Gold Link

and TBonds Link

Keene Little : 11/1/2006 3:13:57 PM

Still no short term divergences to tell me I should have bought that last low. Just some DOW bulls front-running DOW 12K.

Jane Fox : 11/1/2006 3:11:52 PM

I hope you have been watching these ducks today. Link

Jane Fox : 11/1/2006 3:10:33 PM

Well it certainly looks like that interception never came to pass (pardon the pun) and the bears still have the ball.

Keene Little : 11/1/2006 3:08:24 PM

This is the chart of the DOW I posted earlier this morning (12:19 AM). The DOW is now approaching 12K where I've got some Fib support and the bottom of a new parallel down-channel based off this morning's high. The choppy look of the pullback from last week's high has me wondering if this pullback will lead to antoher rally. Bears beware of this possibility. Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/1/2006 3:03:28 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Keene Little : 11/1/2006 2:59:57 PM

ES is now hitting its uptrend line from Sept 11th through the Sept 22nd low, here at 1374.

Keene Little : 11/1/2006 2:54:53 PM

I still see the possibility for ES to get hammered down to near 1371 before it rallies.

Keene Little : 11/1/2006 2:53:09 PM

This is looking like it could set up for a final hour rally into the close. That would certainly frustrate the bears.

Keene Little : 11/1/2006 2:52:01 PM

Brokers are getting hit pretty hard today, down -1.3% at this point, and it's broken its uptrend line from October 19th, its last significant pullback. If I've got the wave count correct on this one we should see some hard selling start to take hold in it. But first it also is due a bounce after today's decline. Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/1/2006 2:37:53 PM

Bullish swing trade stop alert on Lehman Bros. (LEH) $75.94 -2.40% ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/1/2006 2:36:53 PM

LEH $76.00

Keene Little : 11/1/2006 2:36:21 PM

VIX is starting to peep above its downtrend line which is the top of its descending wedge. This is bullish for VIX and just the opposite for equities. Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/1/2006 2:33:50 PM

Not sure if 6 cents fudge will matter (from profiled stop of $76.00)

Jeff Bailey : 11/1/2006 2:32:48 PM

Bullish swing trade adjust stop alert ... on LEH $76.04 ... to $75.94.

Jeff Bailey : 11/1/2006 2:29:50 PM

VIX 11.34 +2.16% ... creeps above its DAILY R1.

SPY $137.21 -0.42% ... slips below its DAILY S1.

Keene Little : 11/1/2006 2:29:35 PM

From an EW perspective we've now achieved a 5-wave move down today and we should be setting up for a bounce back up. Whether from here or a little lower first is hard to say but I think chasing this to the downside now is too risky. Link

Keene Little : 11/1/2006 2:25:27 PM

I don't see confirming evidence with bullish divergences to tell me we've found a tradeable bottom. I think it's too early to be testing the long side.

Jeff Bailey : 11/1/2006 2:21:34 PM

Lehman Bros. (LEH) $76.14 -2.18% ... looks very "oversold" near-term, but set to test Monday morning's low of of $76.01. WEEKLY S1 no help until $75.72.

Keene Little : 11/1/2006 2:20:01 PM

If ES makes it down through 1375 I've got potential Fib support in the 1371-1372.50 area.

Keene Little : 11/1/2006 2:18:15 PM

There's a trend line along the lows since Monday's, currently at ES 1375.50 that could provide support here.

Jeff Bailey : 11/1/2006 2:15:26 PM

SPY $137.30 -0.35% ... current November "Max Pain" theory tabulated at $136.00 ($1 increments).

Marc Eckelberry : 11/1/2006 2:13:34 PM

This could build into a much more negative day than people think.

Marc Eckelberry : 11/1/2006 2:12:50 PM

Depends on QM 59.

Marc Eckelberry : 11/1/2006 2:11:08 PM

NQ should go furher down to 1722/1724.50.

Keene Little : 11/1/2006 2:09:29 PM

If you'd like to scalp a long play, look at a new low with bullish divergences to set that up.

Keene Little : 11/1/2006 2:09:02 PM

Using SPX, today's drop is a 3-wave move down but the current bounce could be a 4th wave correction. As shown on the chart, in order for it to count as a 4th wave correction it can't overlap the bottom of the 1st wave which is this morning's dip to 1375.59. If it drops to a new low from here it will look good as the 5th wave down. Link

From there we'd be due another bounce for another 2nd wave correction, probably into tomorrow. After that bounce we'd then be due a strong 3rd of a 3rd wave down. I'll believe it when I see it. In the meantime the larger pullback from last week, especially on the DOW looks suspiciously like all the other corrections we've seen lately, ones that lead to new rallies. I don't discount that possibility yet.

Tab Gilles : 11/1/2006 2:05:28 PM

EIA Weekly Report Link

Keene Little : 11/1/2006 1:51:19 PM

Nice little spike back up right there, which then immediately got sold into. Keep the bears at bay while the Boyz unload. That should be the modus operandi for a while, and one of the reasons why it will difficult to scalp trade the short side. Once we get a clearer idea that support is breaking and we're getting some impulsive moves to the downside then we'll start looking for swing trades on the short side. It'll require opening up the stops a bit, and keep them clear of price action.

Jeff Bailey : 11/1/2006 1:48:03 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List found at this Link

Jane Fox : 11/1/2006 1:47:21 PM

Oh yawn TICKS +800

Jeff Bailey : 11/1/2006 1:37:00 PM

SPY 137.42 -0.26% ... 60-minute interval chart with updated MONTHLY Pivot retracement at this Link

Keene Little : 11/1/2006 1:34:37 PM

I'm back and I see ES has taken out yesterday's low while YM came within a point of its low. So far the move down today is a 3-wave move so if we now get a small bounce and new low it'll give us a 5-wave move down. Otherwise a rally back up from here could be just a continuation of a larger sideways consolidation. Both will look bearish but it will be a matter of when we get the new lows. It looks good for a short on this bounce with a tight stop just above.

Jeff Bailey : 11/1/2006 1:20:55 PM

01:05 Internals found at this Link

Tab Gilles : 11/1/2006 1:17:22 PM

Recently I've been posting the $NDX charts focusing in on the $NALOW & $NAHGH. Here's a look at the $NYSE along with it's respective Low & Highs. Expectations of a pullback towards its 50 weekly ma? Link

Jane Fox : 11/1/2006 1:14:59 PM

ES is testing its bottom trendline and a break will bring song to the hearts of bears. AT least some bears but not this one because I think a retracement back to May highs support would not only be healthy for the bulls but could be a very good spot from which to launch another attack at yearly highs. Now if the May highs support should break then that is another story but that is a long ways off. Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/1/2006 1:07:35 PM

01:05 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/1/2006 1:03:49 PM


DJ- Insurer's net rises 15% to $298 million, or $2.75 a share. Adjusted EPS of $2.48 tops analysts' estimate of $2.17. Revenue gains 2.9% to $4.14 billion. Cigna sees '07 medical membership growth of 4%-6%.

CI $120.97 +3.41% Link ...

Jane Fox : 11/1/2006 12:39:04 PM

The bears have once again regained control of the ball and also have field advantage. One has to wonder if the bulls have enough to make an interception and run for a touchdown. Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/1/2006 12:35:07 PM

AMEX Gold Bugs ($HUI.X) 318.82 (unch) ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/1/2006 12:33:57 PM


DJ- Media giant earns $2.32 billion, or 57c a share, as earnings from continuing operations, excluding items, rise to 19c, missing estimates by a penny. Revenue up 7% to $10.9 billion. Time Warner sees up to $1.5 billion gain from sale of AOL Europe.

TWX $19.93 -0.39% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/1/2006 12:29:10 PM


DJ- Shares rally 16% as credit-card firm earns $193 million, or $1.42 a share, as revenue climbs 14% to $902 million in its first full quarter after May IPO. Results handily top expectations for EPS of $1.07 and revenue of $871.2 million.

MA $85.75 +15.72% Link ...

Jane Fox : 11/1/2006 12:06:06 PM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The odds of an interest rate cut in early 2007 has increased following a surprise drop in the Institute of Supply Management's gauge of manufacturing activity and weaker-than-expected data on construction spending. February fed funds futures rose 0.02 to 94.80, which implies a 20% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut its target on overnight rates to 5% from 5.25% by the end of its policy setting meeting on Jan. 31, 2007. Late Tuesday, the futures were pricing in a 12% chance of a rate cut. Earlier, the ISM index fell to 51.2% in October from 52.9% in September, while economists surveyed by MarketWatch had been expecting a rise to 53.2%, on average. In addition, the U.S. Commerce Department said construction spending fell 0.3% in September, vs. expectations that spending would be flat.

Jeff Bailey : 11/1/2006 11:56:45 AM

Copper under pressure ... hg06z $3.27 -2.38%

Jane Fox : 11/1/2006 11:55:23 AM

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Unleaded-gasoline futures climbed as much as 3% Wednesday after U.S. government data showed that supplies of the fuel have tallied a three-week decline of nearly 11 million barrels.

At the same time, crude futures weakened on the heels of a rise in last week's inventories, but the fall in gasoline supplies helped keep prices above the previous session's 16-month low of close to $57 a barrel.

Overall, the data offered "little in the way of news to a market that is still groping in the dark for direction," said Rakesh Shankar, an economist at Moody's Economy.com.

Crude for December delivery was last down 43 cents at $58.30 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract touched a low of $57.05 Tuesday, its weakest level since mid-June 2005, before ending that session higher. It still lost more than 8% for the month of October amid easing threats to global oil inventories and concerns about U.S. economic weakness.

Jane Fox : 11/1/2006 11:52:43 AM

Dateline WSJ - The New York Stock Exchange, in a symbolic decision that underscores the decline of floor trading amid the rising popularity of electronic trading, plans to shut about 20% of its floor-trading space in the next 18 months.

The Big Board -- practically the last bastion of the centuries-old system of putting together investors through auctions on a hardwood trading floor -- announced the move late yesterday, saying it would cut costs. Costs have become an increasing focus for NYSE Group Inc., the new for-profit parent company of the NYSE that resulted from the March merger of the Big Board and electronic exchange operator Archipelago Holdings Inc.

The 214-year-old exchange, of course, is still committed to running part of its business on the floor. The exchange will have four remaining trading rooms -- the Main Room, the Garage, the Blue Room and the Extended Blue Room -- with about 36,000 square feet. The floor the NYSE plans to close, called the New Room and a few doors away from its landmark building in Lower Manhattan, has about 10,000 square feet.

"It's just the beginning of the floor closings," said Richard Repetto, an analyst with brokerage firm Sandler O'Neill & Partners LP

Tab Gilles : 11/1/2006 11:54:10 AM

Here's a weekly chart with the $NDX, $NALOW 10 and 15 ema, $NDXA200 and $NASI. Highlighting buy and sell points. I recently issued a 1/2 position sell on the Profunds UOPIX & UAPIX. I'm looking for a pullback here and then a year end rally. Link

Jane Fox : 11/1/2006 11:19:30 AM

Good news for anyone looking to lock in a re-fi at a better rate.

Jeff Bailey : 11/1/2006 11:19:24 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Jane Fox : 11/1/2006 11:19:03 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Treasury prices threw off early losses to trade higher Wednesday, sending yields lower, after the Institute for Supply Management reported a deceleration in factory activity last month to the lowest level since June 2003.

Other reports showed a decline in pending home sales and an unexpected decline in construction spending.

"There's nothing in the data that would come out that would deter one from thinking the economy is slowing," said John Spinello, chief fixed-income technical analyst at Jefferies & Co. "So bonds are moving higher."

Jeff Bailey : 11/1/2006 11:04:54 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Keene Little : 11/1/2006 11:04:40 AM

I've got to leave for a couple of hours and go get my checkup at the doctor's. Hopefully I won't be delayed long. Price action is still choppy and looks like we could continue to chop up and down. That would likely be a continuation pattern for lower prices but with this market one never knows for sure.

The Boyz may try to pump the market up repeatedly so that they can sell into it. Whipsaws would be common in this environment. Continue to exercise caution and make scalping trades. If yesterday's lows get broken then we could see some acceleration in the selling.

Jeff Bailey : 11/1/2006 11:02:03 AM

EIA Weekly Gross Inputs, Refinery Op. Capacity, Pct. Utilization Table found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/1/2006 10:57:26 AM

EIA Weekly Crude Oil, Gasoline, Distillate, ULS Diesel, Jet Fuel, Heating Oil Table found at this Link

Keene Little : 11/1/2006 10:53:26 AM

I think oil has found a bottom. After chopping lower, which is a bullish ending pattern, oil dropped to a new low yesterday and achieved, to the penny, a Fib target at 57.05. This is the level where the 5th wave down equaled the 1st wave. Link

If the little pullback today leads to another high (resistance should be at 59) it will give us an impulsive 5-wave move up off yesterday's low and that would look constructive for oil bulls. A pullback from 59 would then set up the move to break its downtrend.

Jane Fox : 11/1/2006 10:52:10 AM

Rescue team back TICKS +800. The selling never lasts long does it?

Jeff Bailey : 11/1/2006 10:49:56 AM

EIA: Weekly Percent Utilization of Refinery Operable Capacity 88.94% (up 2.72%) from prior week.

Jeff Bailey : 11/1/2006 10:48:43 AM

EIA: Refinery Operable Capacity unchanged at 17.39 million BPD

Jeff Bailey : 11/1/2006 10:47:29 AM

EIA: Gross Inputs into Refineries up 473,000 BPD

Jeff Bailey : 11/1/2006 10:40:03 AM

EIA: SPR added 243,000 barrels of Crude Oil to inventory in latest week.

Jeff Bailey : 11/1/2006 10:38:20 AM

EIA: Heating Oil Inventories (Distillate >500 ppm Sulfer) down 1.5 million barrels.

Jeff Bailey : 11/1/2006 10:37:01 AM

EIA: Kerosene-type Jet Fuel up 563,000 barrels

Jeff Bailey : 11/1/2006 10:36:12 AM

EIA: ULS Diesel Inventories up 3.2 million barrels

Jeff Bailey : 11/1/2006 10:34:57 AM

EIA: Total Distillate Inventories down 2.7 million barrels

Jeff Bailey : 11/1/2006 10:33:37 AM

EIA: Gasoline Inventories down 2.79 million barrels

Jane Fox : 11/1/2006 10:33:12 AM

* Crude supply up 2 mln brls last week
* Distillate supply down 2.7 mln brls:
* Gasoline supply down 2.8 mln brls

Jeff Bailey : 11/1/2006 10:32:50 AM

EIA: Crude Oil Inventories up 1.9 million barrels

Tab Gilles : 11/1/2006 10:32:30 AM

EIA OIL Inventories Report

Crude +2.0 M bbl

Gasoline -2.8M bbl

Distillates -2.7M bbl

Keene Little : 11/1/2006 10:32:10 AM

ES is finding support at its short term uptrend line from yesterday's low, currently at 1380. It looks like it will break and then watch for support at yesterday's low of 1377.

Jane Fox : 11/1/2006 10:28:25 AM

ER has tested its PDL but so far the only market to do so.

Jane Fox : 11/1/2006 10:26:59 AM

For those you who trade Crude remember the Inventories out at 10:30.

Jeff Bailey : 11/1/2006 10:24:49 AM

October ISM

DJ- U.S. factory activity saw its weakest month of growth in over three years in October, amid a broad pullback in price pressures, a report Wednesday said.

The Institute for Supply Management, a private research group, said that its index of manufacturing activity slowed to 51.2 in October, from 52.9 in September and 54.5 in August. Readings above 50 point to expansion in activity, and October's level was above the 53.5 mark that was the forecast of economists in a survey conducted by Dow Jones Newswires.

"The manufacturing sector fell to its lowest level of growth since June 2003," said Norbert Ore, who directs the survey for the ISM. He noted that "there was significant movement in most of the indexes," and "there was particularly good news on the pricing front as the prices index fell 14 points, signaling some relief for buyers for the first time in 15 months." Ore added that exports are being supported by a "weaker" dollar.

In the report, the organization noted that the inflationary forces faced by manufacturers retreated, with the prices index coming in at 47.0, after 61.0 in September. The prices index was 73.0 in August.

The ISM's new orders index moved to 52.1, from 54.2 the month before, while the production index hit 51.9, versus 56.1 in September. Hiring at factories improved: the employment index rose to 50.8, from 49.4 in September.

Meanwhile, the ISM said its inventories index came in at 49.4, versus 46.4 in September.

Jane Fox : 11/1/2006 10:23:39 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- RRSat Global Communications Network Ltd priced its initial public offering near the top of its $11-$13 range for its stock market debut on Wednesday.

The Israel satellite firm offered 3.8 million shares at $12.50 in a bid to raise $47.5 million. CIBC World Markets, Thomas Weisel Partners and William Blair are underwriting the IPO, which will begin trading on the Nasdaq.

RRSat Global (RRST) has drawn kudos for its rapid growth and operating income as a provider of satellite and terrestrial TV and radio transmissions.

Although the pace of such listings has slowed from the 1990s, others such as Cellcom are planning to list shares here.

RRSat marks only the second initial public offering from Israel to debut on the Nasdaq this year after IncrediMail Ltd. (MAIL) debuted Jan. 31 at $7.50 a share. It's trading at $7.20 now.

Jeff Bailey : 11/1/2006 10:21:32 AM

US ISM Oct Mfg Business Index 51.2 Vs Sep 52.9

US ISM Oct Mfg Business Index Expected 53.5

US ISM Oct Prices Index 47.0 Vs Sep 61.0

US ISM Oct Employment Index 50.8 VS Sep 49.4

US ISM Oct New Orders Index 52.1 Vs Sep 54.2

US ISM Oct Production Index 51.9 Vs Sep 56.1

US ISM Oct Inventories 49.4 Vs Sep 46.4

ISM: Oct Mfg Growth Lowest Since June 2003

ISM: Price Idx Pullback 'Particularly Good News'

ISM: 'Weaker' Dollar Supporting US Exports

Jane Fox : 11/1/2006 10:20:14 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - A gauge of future home buying fell 1.1% in September, a signal that sales will be roughly flat for the next few months, the National Association of Realtors said Wednesday.

The pending home sales index fell 1.1% in September after a 4.7% increase in August. The index is down 13.6% in the past year. Home sales are also down about 14% in the past year, while building permits have plunged 27%.

The pending home sales index is based on contracts to buy existing homes signed in September. Sales typically close a month or two later, when they would be recorded in the industry trade group's existing home sales index.

Earlier Wednesday in a separate report, the Mortgage Bankers Association said applications for mortgages tumbled 3% last week. Applications for purchase loans fell 1.8% to a three-year low, despite lower mortgage interest rates.

Jane Fox : 11/1/2006 10:19:33 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Outlays on U.S. construction projects fell 0.3% in September, led by drops in spending on private residential construction and federal building projects, the government said Wednesday.

Private residential construction spending fell 1.1% in September after declining by 1.6% in August, according to the Commerce Department.

In a reflection of the ongoing housing slowdown, September marked the sixth consecutive month that spending on private residential construction fell. Over the past twelve months spending is down 6.9%

Overall private construction spending dropped by 0.7%. But it is up 0.6% in the past year. Spending on federal construction projects dropped by 1.5% in September.

Total construction spending was revised to neither rise nor fall in August

Keene Little : 11/1/2006 10:19:27 AM

That quick buy program had no follow through to help those who wanted to use it to sell into. Unloading of inventory continues and things are turning more bearish. But, this continues to chop around and could easily spike back up as part of a larger sideways consolidation.

Jeff Bailey : 11/1/2006 10:16:34 AM

Dollar getting hit after ISM too.

Jane Fox : 11/1/2006 10:09:41 AM

Look at how the VIX spiked up as ES spiked down. Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/1/2006 10:15:18 AM

AMEX Gold Bugs ($HUI.X) 326.95 +2.54% Link ... breaches its 200-day SMA (325) in early morning trade. Bar chart Link

Jane Fox : 11/1/2006 10:06:11 AM

Keene I think the scenario you talked about earlier was spot on.

Jane Fox : 11/1/2006 10:05:39 AM

Didn't think it could last long TICKS +1000

Keene Little : 11/1/2006 10:05:26 AM

Here come the buy programs. They're late.

Keene Little : 11/1/2006 10:03:19 AM

Thanks to Denise for finding an error in the pivot tables for ES--I mistyped the closing price (I was only off by 100 points). Corrected tables: Link and Link

Jane Fox : 11/1/2006 10:02:54 AM

Internals are aligned at least for now. Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/1/2006 10:02:45 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Keene Little : 11/1/2006 10:02:32 AM

Well that's not what I expected. I expected a sell off but not until after a spike up. This sets up a potential reversal to get the new high but obviously not if the selling continues.

Jane Fox : 11/1/2006 10:01:41 AM

Whoa the bears are actually taking the ball away from the bulls this morning. VIX to new daily highs and AD volume to new daily lows. That TRIN was telling us something wasn't it?

Marc Eckelberry : 11/1/2006 9:55:58 AM

Real resistance is at 628 if you want to press higher, but we could pullback before that.

Keene Little : 11/1/2006 9:55:32 AM

Push it down before 10:00, suck in some bears and then spit them out with some buy programs. Spike it up, suck in some bulls and then spit them out by selling into the rally. Still looks like a good setup from here. Be careful. Even the EW count for this leg up from yesterday afternoon looks like this is a 4th wave correction and all we need is another new high to finish the count to the upside.

Marc Eckelberry : 11/1/2006 9:53:33 AM

Gold is approaching my initial target of 620/623. Gap close from Sepbember is around 623, 200 dma is at 618, you should start considering booking partial profits.

Keene Little : 11/1/2006 9:49:44 AM

The VIX is certainly showing very little concern this morning--back below 11.

Jane Fox : 11/1/2006 9:49:34 AM

TRIN is rising as price is rising and in conflict with the VIX and AD volume. These ducks are not aligned this morning. Link

Keene Little : 11/1/2006 9:47:17 AM

The same kind of exapnded flat correction pattern for YM that I showed for ES gives us an upside target for this leg at 12169. That's a lower target, relatively speaking, than ES's. So watch for potential stalling once that level is hit.

Jane Fox : 11/1/2006 9:47:14 AM

TICKS +800

Keene Little : 11/1/2006 9:44:19 AM

It looks like we're just sitting tight until we get through the 10:00 reports. My suspicion here is that no matter what the numbers we're going to see some big buy programs hit so that they knock the shorts out, create a buying panic and then start selling into it. Just a guess but it would fit the pattern.

Jane Fox : 11/1/2006 9:40:35 AM

TRIN and VIX both below their respective PDLs supporting the bullishness.

Jane Fox : 11/1/2006 9:39:29 AM

AD line is +767 and AD volume above 0 and climbing. The bulls have the ball.

Keene Little : 11/1/2006 9:27:52 AM

One possibility for the EW pattern is for a quick thrust up today to be followed by lots of selling. The pattern from Monday's low could be what's called an expanded flat correction which has the 2nd leg up of an A-B-C equal to 162% of the 1st leg up (and wave-B commonly dips below the previous low). That gives us an upside target just under ES 1390.50. This coincides (a little higher) with the SPX chart I posted below (12:19 AM) where an early rally could get reversed into some hard selling (wave-3 down). Link

Jane Fox : 11/1/2006 9:21:04 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures rallied Wednesday, buoyed by recent dollar weakness, continued reports of robust physical demand linked to the holiday season and buying on the first day of the new month.

Gold for December delivery was up $10.30 at $617.10 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange, its highest level since Sept. 11. The contract fell Tuesday on diminishing geopolitical worry after North Korea agreed to resume six-party nuclear talks, but gained $3 on the month amid worry about a U.S. economic slowdown.

"The recent weakening in the dollar due to last week's poorer than expected U.S. economic figures has pushed up the gold price in dollar terms," said analysts at Numis Securities. They also noted that the close correlation between the oil price and gold price seen since the end of 2005 has weakened this week, with gold prices rising but oil prices falling.

Jane Fox : 11/1/2006 9:19:47 AM

Dateline WSJ - Time Warner Inc.'s third-quarter profit nearly tripled, due largely to several asset sales and adjustments related to its deal to acquire cable systems from Adelphia. The company also reaffirmed its 2006 full-year business outlook.

The New York media company reported Wednesday net income jumped to $2.32 billion, or 57 cents a share, from $853 million, or 18 cents a share, in last year's third quarter.

The latest results included 23 cents a share in discontinued operations related to cable systems that Time Warner has since transferred to Comcast Corp. as part of a three-way deal with Comcast to acquire the systems of Adelphia Communications Corp.

Revenue rose 6.5% to $10.91 from $10.24 billion a year earlier, led by growth at the cable and networks segments. Analysts, on average, had been looking for earnings of 20 cents a share on revenue of $11.07 billion, according to estimates compiled by Thomson First Call.

Keene Little : 11/1/2006 9:18:41 AM

Looks like we'll start the day with a thrust to the upside. I can't find anything that caused the futures to take that big jump before 8:30 AM. Maybe the Boyz playing with the futures to try to get a buying spike at the open so they can sell into it? I'd be a little careful at the open.

Jane Fox : 11/1/2006 9:00:18 AM

Here is another bullish chart. (Natural GAS) Link

Jane Fox : 11/1/2006 8:58:43 AM

On the other hand this is a very bullish chart. (TBOnds) Link

Jane Fox : 11/1/2006 8:57:43 AM

I truly can find nothing bullish about this chart of oil. I think the best it can do now is move sideways. Link

Jane Fox : 11/1/2006 8:53:43 AM

Oh my gosh Gold's overnight high was 616.80 and it looks like resistance may break today. This is pretty bullish for Gold considering how weak Oil has been lately. Quickly now without looking what do you think the $ is doing? Down or up? Link

Jane Fox : 11/1/2006 8:48:03 AM

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stock market futures rallied Wednesday after data showing a rebound in hiring within the private sector, and ahead of data expected to show a slight rise in manufacturing sentiment and improving auto sales.

A multi-billion merger between CVS Corp. and Caremark Rx also helped lift sentiment. S&P 500 futures 3.50 points to 1,386.70 and Nasdaq 100 futures tacked on 6.75 points to 1,749.50. Dow industrials climbed 36 points to 12,155.

Tuesday saw a mixed performance in U.S. markets, with the Dow industrials losing 5.8 points but the Nasdaq Composite rose 2.9 points and the S&P 500 ended nearly unchanged. For the month, the indexes closed with their biggest October gain since 2003.

The monthly ADP employment report indicated that the U.S. economy added about 128,000 private-sector jobs in October, after averaging 95,000 additions over the last 3 months. If you add expected government job additions, nonfarm payrolls likely rose 140,000, topping the average economist estimate compiled by MarketWatch of a 121,000 increase. Link

Jane Fox : 11/1/2006 8:41:03 AM

Dateline WSJ - WASHINGTON -- Employment costs gained in the third quarter at their fastest pace in more than two years, a development likely to keep Federal Reserve officials on edge about inflationary risks to the economy.

The employment-cost index rose 1% during the quarter after gaining 0.9% in the second quarter, the Labor Department reported. Employment costs were 3.3% higher than a year earlier, up from a 3% increase the previous quarter.

Since labor is the biggest expense for many businesses, the report suggests rising labor costs have the potential to keep underlying inflation high despite the recent drop in energy prices. "Labor costs remain a thorn in the side of the Fed's forecast for easing inflation pressures," wrote Gina Martin, an economist at Wachovia Corp., in a research note.

Jane Fox : 11/1/2006 8:40:06 AM

Economic Reports today include:

10:00a.m. Sept Construction Spending. Consensus: Unch. Previous: +0.3%.

10:00a.m. Sept Pending Home Sales. Previous: +4.3%.

10:00a.m. Oct ISM Manufacturing Business Index.Consensus: 53.5. Previous: 52.9.

Market Monitor Archives