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Keene Little : 11/6/2006 10:03:08 PM

Tuesday's pivot tables: Link and Link

OI Technical Staff : 11/6/2006 9:59:59 PM

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Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2006 5:23:37 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2006 5:17:27 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 11/6/2006 4:05:23 PM

I'm not sure what today's bounce is all about but for the time being I'm going to assume its the first leg up in a run to a new all-time high for the DOW. It would fit with a run into the mid-month turn window. If that's a correct assumption, we should get a pullback followed by a continuation higher. Possible support for YM is at its broken downtrend line where it intersects a 38% retracement of today's rally at 12088. I'm hoping to cover my short there and try a reversal long again. Link

Keene Little : 11/6/2006 3:54:44 PM

This little sell off is more better. I've now lowered the stop on my YM short to 12145 breakeven. Can't hurt me now.

Keene Little : 11/6/2006 3:46:31 PM

The a-d volume just keeps heading to new highs. Not even a minor pullback in that all day. Not natural but so what else is new.

Keene Little : 11/6/2006 3:44:23 PM

I'm lowering my stop on my YM short to 12151, 3 ticks to a new high. This close to the end of the day and I'm just not willing to risk another rally going against me. This play needed to work right away otherwise I'm out.

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2006 3:28:56 PM

PetroChina (PTR) $113.58 +1.17% Link ... threatens to close above bar chart's downward trend (~$112.62) Link

Keene Little : 11/6/2006 3:27:36 PM

I'm trying a short here to see if we get a sell off in the last 30 minutes. I'm not willing to risk much on the play.

Keene Little : 11/6/2006 3:26:34 PM

Shorting YM at the top of its little parallel up-channel for price action since this morning's spike up, currently near 12145, could work here. You're picking a top and fighting a trend but it provides for a tight stop just above 12157.

Keene Little : 11/6/2006 3:22:49 PM

All those traders who bought YM on its gap up on Nov 1st could be looking at this rally as "thank you God for letting me out and I promise I'll never hold onto a long like that again." Until next time that is.

Keene Little : 11/6/2006 3:19:36 PM

YM has a double-top for its bounce on Oct 30th and Nov 1st at 12153 and 12157 and that would be a likely resistance level.

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2006 3:17:41 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 11/6/2006 3:10:04 PM

Redrawing the uptrend line for ES from its Sept 11th low through the Sept 22nd low looks better as it gives a better looking parallel up-channel for the Sept-Oct rally. That broken uptrend line is at 1385 so it will be important to see whether or not it holds back any further rally, particularly on a closing basis. This 120-min chart shows it rapidly getting overbought. If MACD holds below zero and curls back over that would be a bearish sign. Link

Jane Fox : 11/6/2006 3:05:41 PM

Oh Yawn TICKS +1000

Keene Little : 11/6/2006 3:05:41 PM

A nice buying spike just to make sure they drive a few more shorts out of the market.

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2006 3:02:55 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Keene Little : 11/6/2006 3:02:38 PM

The trend line along the lows for ES has not broken yet (like it did for YM). ES needs to get below 1382.50 now (and climbing) for a break. A confirmation would be a break below its last low at 1381.25. There's been no let up in a-d volume so I agree with Jane--we'll probably see this held up into the close.

Jane Fox : 11/6/2006 3:30:43 PM

WE didn't get our late day rally - the markets have been ralling all day instead.

Jane Fox : 11/6/2006 3:00:37 PM

... even though my trusted old VIX is not confirming ES's new highs.

Jane Fox : 11/6/2006 2:59:47 PM

There is very little probabability of any meaningful decline today.

Keene Little : 11/6/2006 2:53:37 PM

Support for YM might not be far away though--it's broken downtrend line from its high on Oct 26th is currently at 12098 so I'm going to watch to see if that offers support.

Keene Little : 11/6/2006 2:51:41 PM

That's a pretty good break for YM now. That 1384.25 for ES must might have been the ticket to a good short entry.

Keene Little : 11/6/2006 2:49:26 PM

YM is the first one to threaten breaking down below its trend line along the lows since 10:30 AM, now at 12119. It's been relatively weaker all day.

Keene Little : 11/6/2006 2:47:13 PM

An interesting point about the relatively poor performance of funds vs. the S&P 500 is that it helps explain the significant run-up we've seen in the market. All those funds have been desperate to chase the market higher out of fear they're going to miss the rally. Poor performance in a fund is a quick way out of a job.

Conversely, if the market starts any kind of sell off, especially if support lines/moving averages start breaking, they'll be just as quick to exit their positions (probably quicker) so as not to lose what meager profits they've made. Selling could get ugly in a hurry out of pure fear of losses.

Jane Fox : 11/6/2006 2:45:24 PM

Notice how the cracks I see make no difference as long as the AD volume is steaming ahead. You don't see AD volume this strong often but when you do get on the train and enjoy the ride. I know I did.

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2006 2:43:56 PM

Amerigroup (AGP) $32.25 +9.28% Link ... edges above last Tuesday's Illinois court gap lower open.

Keene Little : 11/6/2006 2:39:12 PM

ES has tagged its Fib projection target at 1384.25. The top of its channel since this morning is at 1385.50 so if it presses higher I could be tempted to short it there. But I'm still watching and waiting for a breakdown. These kinds of runs have tended to go all day without an afternoon reversal so I don't have high hopes for a short play today. Still, the pattern suggests this should be topping around here. Link

Jane Fox : 11/6/2006 2:38:29 PM

I am starting to see some cracks. Es is making new daily highs but VIX is not making new daily lows however, with the AD volume so dang strong I mention this as an observation only.

Keene Little : 11/6/2006 2:34:04 PM

For all those who have struggled to trade and make money this year, you're not alone. This from Denise:

Well we aren't the only ones who had trouble trading lately--Morningstar on CNBC is saying only 27% of the funds beat the S&P 500 this year.

Now don't you feel better? Me neither.

Jane Fox : 11/6/2006 2:33:37 PM

Here is the AD volume Keene was talking about in his 2:28 post; a train you do not want to step out in front of. Link

Keene Little : 11/6/2006 2:28:39 PM

The a-d volume has been in a very steady climb all day and this tells me there's a lot of money coming into the market today--just keep feeding it in to keep everything propped up. But it isn't in everything. The a-d issues has leveled off since this morning's early spike up. So the money is going into those issues that keep the indices inching higher. These are the kinds of days I've learned to stay away from since it seems artificial and you have to wonder where and when the artificial support will end. Link

Keene Little : 11/6/2006 2:05:39 PM

A Fib projection at ES 1384.25 makes for a good place to watch for this to top out and try a short there. Otherwise don't argue with money when the Boyz are using it to buy this market.

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2006 1:51:54 PM

Weekly/Monthly Pivot Matrix found at this Link

Keene Little : 11/6/2006 1:46:53 PM

NQ has to break below 1738.50 to break its very shallow uptrend since 10:30 AM. That one actually appears more bullish, more of a sideways consolidation, where ES and YM have been chopping their way higher and that looks more like an ending pattern for the bounce.

Keene Little : 11/6/2006 1:42:27 PM

Brief little selling spurt there. No damage is done until a trend line along the lows since 10:30 AM is broken. That would be at ES 1381.50 and YM 12110. Hmm, we're there now.

Keene Little : 11/6/2006 1:28:22 PM

VIX is back down to 11. If it comes back down for a test of its recently broken downtrend line (top of its bullish wedge) at about 10.75 and bounces back up, that should be associated with a top in the stock market bounce. But if VIX drops back into its wegde then there's likely going to be a test of the 10 level. A move to sub-10 would likely mean we're making new market highs and that's when I'll be backing up 2 trucks to load up on some very cheap Dec 07 puts. Link

Jane Fox : 11/6/2006 1:23:29 PM

These are all in sync. Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2006 1:19:06 PM

Freeport McMoran (FCX) $61.44 +0.47% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2006 1:18:45 PM

RIO $26.94 +1.85% Link ...

Keene Little : 11/6/2006 1:16:52 PM

I still see ES 1384 as potentially strong resistance.

Keene Little : 11/6/2006 1:16:12 PM

This needs to keep pressing higher here otherwise the short term negative divergences are going to start kicking in. Could be time to try one more shrot play but I'm thinking of waiting for a break down and then catch a bounce. I don't trust the people with money who may want to see this market propped up into tomorrow. And there goes some buying as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2006 1:18:27 PM

Phelps Dodge (PD) $102.78 +3.18% Link ... new 52-weeker and all-time high!

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2006 1:12:45 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2006 1:04:00 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Keene Little : 11/6/2006 12:55:24 PM

The NYSE has also bounced up to potential resistance today at its broken uptrend line from Sept 25th, at 8800. That should be enough to cause a pullback but longer term I see this one as bullish for a new high. The pullback from its high on Oct 26th is clearly a 3-wave move and that suggests higher highs ahead. Link

What we don't know from this is whether or not we'll see it pull back further than Friday's low before continuing higher or if it'll continue higher from here (or after a minor pullback). It does tell me it's probably early to be thinking about longer term short plays.

Keene Little : 11/6/2006 12:48:13 PM

The RUT has stalled at its 20-dma at 759.53 so we'll get to see if that moving average now becomes resistance.

Keene Little : 11/6/2006 12:28:49 PM

DOW tagged its 62% retracement at 12090 (high is 12091.70) and has now pulled back to its broken downtrend line at 12078. A break back below the trendline will probably mean a deeper pullback from here. The equivalent downtrend line for SPX (from its high on Oct 26th) is near 1374 (cash) so about 2 points lower. Just watching for now...

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2006 12:27:15 PM

Cisco Systems (CSCO) $24.67 +3.78% ... threatens it mid-October highs of $24.78.

Tab Gilles : 11/6/2006 12:30:11 PM

Altria (MO) On Friday I posted at 1:22pm a chart of MO suggestive of a Bullish Wedge developing. Today's rally has not included MO, will it reverse and join the party? Link

The Jan $80 Call (MOAP) I mentioned are still trading at Bid $3.20/Ask $3.40.

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2006 12:14:09 PM

Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) $107,000 +1.90% Link ... new all-time high!

Keene Little : 11/6/2006 12:06:46 PM

Out of my short and on the sidelines. I have a feeling it's going to roll right back over but I'd rather not play in traffic here. Whipsaws during lunch makes it riskier than normal.

Keene Little : 11/6/2006 12:03:48 PM

A 62% retracement of the DOW's decline is at 12090 so we're close to that potential resistance level.

Jane Fox : 11/6/2006 12:03:35 PM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The U.S. economy should bounce back from the weak third quarter and average "somewhat below" a 3% real GDP growth rate over the next year, said Michael Moskow, the president of the Chicago Federal Reserve Bank on Monday.

"My baseline forecast is that GDP growth will pick up from the weak third quarter and average somewhat below its potential growth rate [3.0% GDP growth] over the next year or so," Moskow said in remarks prepared for delivery to the Chicagoland Chamber of Commerce/WBBM Newsradio 780 annual economic forecast breakfast. Real GDP increased at a 1.6% rate in the third quarter, the weakest quarterly growth rate in three years.

Moskow attributed much of the slowdown in the July-September quarter to the weak housing sector, but noted that this only accounted for 5% of U.S. gross domestic product.

"Home construction is on average only about 5% of GDP -- that's about the same as people spend on recreation items such as books, golf clubs, and tickets to theater and opera," Moskow said.

"Currently, we do not see the slowing in housing markets spilling over into a more prolonged period of weakness in the U.S. economy overall," Moskow said.

Keene Little : 11/6/2006 12:02:24 PM

I don't particularly like being in a trade as we enter the lunch hour. If stopped out at 12120 (close now), I'll just sit on the sidelines and watch for a little longer. The bullish thing I see here is that the DOW has broken its downtrend line from its high (currently at 12078 cash) so if that line holds on a retest and the DOW bounces higher then buy the dips because we may be headed for new highs again.

Jane Fox : 11/6/2006 12:00:37 PM

* NYSE volume 622.3M
* NYSE has 2,278 advancers
* NYSE has 771 decliners
* NYSE has 159 issues unchanged
* NYSE has 190 issues setting 52-week highs
* NYSE has 23 issues setting 52-week lows
* Nasdaq volume 850.7M
* Nasdaq has 1,912 gainers
* Nasdaq has 942 losers
* Nasdaq has 131 issues unchanged
* Nasdaq has 111 issues setting 52-week highs
* Nasdaq has 57 issues setting 52-week lows

Keene Little : 11/6/2006 11:55:10 AM

A break below ES 1379.50 would indicate the last high might have been it for at least a while. Until then the short term uptrend along the lows since 10:30 is a good guide.

Keene Little : 11/6/2006 11:51:35 AM

YM and ES both got a little burst higher there but NQ and ER are not participating (yet). My short at YM 12100 may get spiked out quickly but if it rolls back over after NQ's and ER's non-participation I'll jump back in short with a stop at a new daily high.

Jane Fox : 11/6/2006 11:46:23 AM

And here we go TICKS +1000

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2006 11:45:52 AM

Coeur d'Alene Mines (CDE) $5.00 +1.83% ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2006 11:45:16 AM

Kinross Gold (KGC) $11.94 -9.95% ... released for trade.

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2006 11:44:46 AM

Bema Gold (BGO) $5.18 +8.36% ... released for trade.

Jane Fox : 11/6/2006 11:37:44 AM

You have seen the AD volume with this tajectory many many times and although it is not 100% it usually means stay on the long side. Link

Keene Little : 11/6/2006 11:33:06 AM

YM and ES appear to be in a gradual rise since the pullback to just past 10:30 AM. When I see this kind of choppy rise I get bearish. I'm looking to short this and have an order in to short YM at 12100 with a stop at 12120. It'll be a quick try and get out of the way if it doesn't work.

Jane Fox : 11/6/2006 11:31:27 AM

WE could see a blastoff late day rally.

Jane Fox : 11/6/2006 11:30:35 AM

That charts I showed in my last post is your typical bullish MACD moving down while price moves sideways.

Jane Fox : 11/6/2006 11:29:06 AM

Consolidating at daily highs as the MACD falls says your highest probability trade is long. AD volume continues to make new daily highs says your highest probability trade is long. Vix hanging around daily lows says your highest probability trade is long. Link

Keene Little : 11/6/2006 11:27:15 AM

I sure hope we're not into election freeze already.

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2006 11:24:26 AM

11:05 Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 11/6/2006 11:23:17 AM

The way this is sneaking higher looks bearish. This could be the "one more high". Watch for a roll over at any time which should be a good short play. If it can manage to push a little higher first, ES 1384 makes for a good upside target.

Tab Gilles : 11/6/2006 11:19:49 AM

It appears that the market wants to make a run and re-test that 1750 level. Looking at the $NAHGH/$NALOW chart, note the down turn in the $NALOW. Overall charts show market is overbought. Reason I recommended only taking a 1/2 position in the Profund USPIX and UCPIX funds.

Keep and eye on the $NDXA200 70 level as a sell signal. Link Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2006 11:17:47 AM

Kinross agrees to acquire Bema in $3.1 billion deal ... MarketWatch Story Link

Jane Fox : 11/6/2006 11:15:45 AM

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Kinross Gold Corp. (KGC) has agreed to acquire Bema Gold Corp. (BGO) in a $3.1 billion deal, the companies said Monday. Under the terms of the deal, each Bema common share will be exchanged for 0.441 of a Kinross common share. After the deal closes, 61% of the combined company will be owned by existing Kinross shareholders and 39% by existing Bema shareholders. The new company would be lead by Kinross' management team. The combined company would have mineral reserves and resources of 50 million ounces of gold; 80 million ounces of silver and 2.9 billion pounds of copper. Bema shareholders will vote on the deal in mid January. Bema would be required to pay a breakup fee of C$79 million under certain circumstances. Kinross is based in Toronto, while Bema is based in Vancouver, British Columbia.

Jane Fox : 11/6/2006 11:14:31 AM

Toronto-based Kinross will issue 0.441 share for each share of Vancouver-based Bema in a deal that gives Bema holders a 22% premium to Friday's closing prices.

"This acquisition will create exceptional value for shareholders," said Kinross chief Tye W. Burt. "By combining our assets, operations and expertise, we have dramatically increased our gold reserve and resource base to more than 50 million ounces. We will have a well-balanced gold reserve profile with 39% in Chile, 37% in Brazil, 16% in North America and 8% in Russia. These reserves, coupled with our enhanced exploration pipeline, will put Kinross in a unique position to take advantage of the robust gold price and provide investors with an excellent portfolio of world-class assets."

Shares in both companies were halted Monday.

Jane Fox : 11/6/2006 11:09:52 AM

BOSTON (MarketWatch) -- Investors are looking to home builder Toll Brothers Inc. to provide an update on the health of the luxury housing market later this week when it reports preliminary quarterly results.

The Horsham, Pa., company (TOL) is scheduled to release preliminary home-building revenues, contracts and backlog for the fiscal fourth quarter before the market opens on Tuesday, with a conference call later in the day to discuss its outlook.

"We expect orders to fall 34% year-over-year in the fourth quarter despite slightly easier comparisons, an anticipated 30% increase in communities and more attractive incentives," wrote Banc of America Securities analyst Daniel Oppenheim in a research note.

The analyst predicted Toll management will provide its outlook for fiscal 2007 when it reports complete fiscal fourth-quarter earnings on Dec. 5. Analysts polled by Thomson First Call are forecasting 2007 profit of $2.77 a share, on average. Previously, the company said it expects to deliver between 7,000 and 8,000 homes in fiscal 2007 at an average price of about $640,000.

In August, Toll said the number of contracts in its fiscal third quarter ended July 31 fell 48% from a year earlier. Other builders have reported tumbling home orders, although Toll is seen as a bellwether for the high-end luxury market.

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2006 11:07:19 AM

11:05 Market Watch found at this Link

Keene Little : 11/6/2006 11:06:58 AM

The pattern for YM has me a little baffled but the impression I get is that it's bullish. It could be "winding up" for a bad decline but right now it looks like a corrective pullback since its high. Link

Resistance by its downtrend line from the high is near 12105 and that's a good spot to try a short play and we'll see if and what kind of pullback we get from there. But if that downtrend line breaks we could be off to the races again.

Keene Little : 11/6/2006 11:00:06 AM

The brokers got a nice bounce this morning. They're starting to look as frenetic as the bonds. The bounce since the low on Thursday has two equal legs up at 234.52 and this morning's rally went slightly higher than that (235.02). That could be it for the bounce but if it manages to get a little higher then it may find resistance at the intersection of its downtrend line from October 10th and broken uptrend line from October 19th at about 237.40. Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2006 10:58:06 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List at this Link

Keene Little : 11/6/2006 10:45:21 AM

Right now ES is stalled at its broken uptrend line from Sept 11th, just under 1380. I'm waiting to see if we get "one more high" before shorting it but this trend line offers resistance that may make a short play a worthwhile try right here. Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2006 10:43:56 AM

Swing trade sell partial covered call alert ... let's look to sell five (5) of the Coeur d'Alene Mines CDE Nov $5 Calls (CDE-KA) for $0.25 if they trade there. Three levels of overlap this week at WEEKLY R2 $5.14, and MONTHLY R1 ($5.18)/MONTHLY Pivot retracement ($5.17).

CDE $4.98 +1.42% ... CDE-KA $0.15 x $0.20

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2006 10:33:10 AM

10:30 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2006 10:29:02 AM

alert! Possible covered call write for Coeur d'Alene Mines ... CDE $5.00 +1.83% ... Would look to write some CDE Nov $5 Calls (CDE-KA) for $0.20 (target is $5.20 in the underlying) if given the opportunity.

CDE-KA are $0.10 x $0.20 and seeing trade at $0.15.

Jane Fox : 11/6/2006 10:28:55 AM

These are telling me the current pullback is only that a pull back and should be bought. Link

Keene Little : 11/6/2006 10:26:17 AM

If the current small pullback is followed by another high which leaves bearish divergences I'll try a short. Another high from here would give us a quick 5-wave move up off Friday afternoon's low and that could complete an A-B-C move up from Friday's mid-day low. I'm not sure what kind of larger pullback we'd get but we should be due for one.

Keene Little : 11/6/2006 10:20:45 AM

I jumped out of my long ES position at 1378. It was a nice quick ride from Friday's 1365.50 low and I'm more than happy to take some money off the table. Now I'm watching to see what happens here.

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2006 10:19:42 AM

Still no news on BGO or KGC ... both still halted.

Keene Little : 11/6/2006 10:19:01 AM

One thing to keep in mind if we've started a more meaningful decline from the high on October 26th is that the bear market rallies will very likely be sharp like this morning's. Especially right now with shorts being an extremely nervous bunch. It will be easy to spike them out of the market and that creates these sudden flare-ups. But just as suddenly it can reverse to hard down. It will make trading difficult, especially to the long side IF (big if) we've started down now. The jury is still out on the longer term pattern here.

Jane Fox : 11/6/2006 10:15:44 AM

At this rate we are going to get trading halts on the indexes.

Jane Fox : 11/6/2006 10:15:11 AM

Wow TICKS +1000

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2006 10:08:46 AM

Coeur d'Alene Mines (CDE) $4.98 +1.42%

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2006 10:07:50 AM

NASDAQ Trading Halts ... Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2006 10:07:18 AM

Kinross Gold (KGC) $13.26 ... also halted for trade. News pending ...

Jane Fox : 11/6/2006 10:06:36 AM

All markets except YM have now broken their PDHs. Buyers are out in full force today.

Keene Little : 11/6/2006 10:06:04 AM

Still going. A 50% retracement is at 1380.50.

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2006 10:05:52 AM

alert! Bema Gold (BGO) $5.01 +4.81% ... halted for trade.

Keene Little : 11/6/2006 10:04:48 AM

ES 1378 is also the level where the 2nd leg up in the bounce from Friday's low is equal to 162% of the 1st leg up. If we've got something more bullish going on we should still see at least a consolidation near this high.

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2006 10:03:16 AM

It has to be my opinion that last week's trade of MONTHLY Pivot, after consecutive MONTHLY R2 trades, that that is simply too strong of support near-term (MONTHLY Pivot) for an inventory rebuild and the $136 out-the-money puts will likely NOT see much more than $0.90 until expiration.

Keene Little : 11/6/2006 10:02:55 AM

ES is now hitting its broken uptrend line from Sept 11th, at 1378. This could be tough resistance although the buying spike this morning certainly doesn't make it appear it will be. But it's a good spot to watch for a roll back over.

Jane Fox : 11/6/2006 10:02:10 AM

These three are bullish. Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2006 10:00:47 AM

SPY $137.28 +0.54% ... 60-minute interval chart with updated WEEKLY Pivot retracement at this Link

Jane Fox : 11/6/2006 9:56:58 AM

NQ is not only making new daily highs it is above its PDH. Now so is ER. ES and YM are still within their PDRs

Jane Fox : 11/6/2006 9:55:29 AM

Up Up and away!!!

Jane Fox : 11/6/2006 9:55:22 AM

TICKS +1000

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2006 9:54:02 AM

Swing trade put stop alert with SPY $137.15. SFB-WF $0.45 x $0.50.

Jane Fox : 11/6/2006 9:53:46 AM

AD volume continues to make new daily highs and if there is anything I have learned over the last few years of trading with the internals is NEVER fight the AD volume.

Keene Little : 11/6/2006 9:52:19 AM

If you're still long from Friday you should now place your stop just below Friday afternoon's low since a drop below that level (ES 1368) from here would leave just a 3-wave bounce. The drop might only be a retest of the low or it could continue south so it's better to keep the stop closer than Friday's low. If you're looking at the long play as just a scalp (pretty good idea) I'd watch 1377-1378 as a place to take some money off the table.

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2006 9:49:38 AM

There were some problems posting to the MM this morning. If traders closed out per Friday's lowered stop, then so be it, but would see if WEEKLY Pivot ($137.02) gets any traction this morning. Session high has been $137.10.

SPY $136.99 +0.32% ... SFB-WF $0.50 x $0.55 (low/high $0.50 x $0.60)

Jeff Bailey : 11/6/2006 9:47:28 AM

Swing trade put stop adjustment on the SPY Nov. $136 Puts (SFB-WF) from $137.00 to $137.15 in the underlying.

Keene Little : 11/6/2006 9:45:02 AM

I've got my MM back so all cylinders seem to be firing now on my computer.

Jane Fox : 11/6/2006 9:44:31 AM

Keene I had trouble with the MM this morning as well so it may not be you.

Jane Fox : 11/6/2006 9:43:39 AM

AD volume making new daily highs tells me don't even think about been short but the VIX is also making new daily highs and that tells me to don't even think about been long. So the internals are very clear that you should not be trading yet.

Keene Little : 11/6/2006 9:42:48 AM

I've been having some connection issues this morning (still can't get into the Market Monitor). This morning we have ES jumping above its downtrend line from last Wednesday, at 1372.50, so watch for a retest of that broken downtrend line to hold if the bulls have something going here (instead of a gap n crap).

Two equal legs up from Friday's low is at 1374.25 which is where it just stopped. A 38% retracement of the decline is just under 1377 which coincides closely with Friday's high. That's where I'd consider a scalp short. I'm expecting this bounce to be followed by a pullback to then be followed by a 2nd leg up (for a larger A-B-C bounce than this) and that could take us through tomorrow and potentially up to 1384 (62%) to test the broken uptrend line from Sept 11th.

Jane Fox : 11/6/2006 9:39:39 AM

VIX is climbing as well.

Jane Fox : 11/6/2006 9:38:53 AM

TRIN started out in its PDR but has climbed to a high of 1.20. This should worry the bulls.

Jane Fox : 11/6/2006 9:37:35 AM

Ad line +1052

Jane Fox : 11/6/2006 9:24:23 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - Treasury price losses mounted early Monday, sending up yields, after Chicago Federal Reserve President Michael Moskow warned that the risk posed by inflation is greater than the risk of an economic slowdown, predicting that growth will pick up.

The bond market abhors inflation because it eats into the value of bonds and keeps pressure on the Federal Reserve to keep rates higher.

"Hawkish remarks from Fed's Moskow got the attention of the fixed income markets after he indicated that "more rate hikes may be needed," and pointed to greater risk of higher inflation than lower growth," said Action Economics.

Jane Fox : 11/6/2006 9:03:46 AM

Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT) , which just turned in softer-than-expected same-store sales growth for October and forecast flat results for November, on Friday said it was cutting prices on nearly a hundred electronics products, including high-definition TVs, digital cameras and cell phones.

Jane Fox : 11/6/2006 9:03:10 AM

Take-Two Interactive Software Inc. (TTWO) received a non-compliance notice from Nasdaq due to the company's delayed Form 10-Q filing for the quarter ended July 31. The company has scheduled a meeting with the Nasdaq listing qualifications panel to address its plan to regain compliance.

Jane Fox : 11/6/2006 9:02:43 AM

Starbucks Corp. (SBUX) said four laptops that are no longer in regular use are missing from the company's corporate support center in Seattle. The coffee giant said two of the laptops contained private information, such as names and social security numbers, of almost 60,000 United States employees, as well as less than 80 Canadian partners and contractors employed prior to Dec. 31, 2003.

Jane Fox : 11/6/2006 8:59:28 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Four Seasons Hotels Inc. said it received a takeover offer of $82 a share, or $3.7 billion, from investors including its current chief executive, Saudi Prince Alwaleed Bin Talal and Microsoft Chairman Bill Gates.

Four Seasons (FS) said the offer came from a team that includes Chairman and CEO Isadore Sharp; controlling shareholder Triples Holdings Ltd.; Kingdom Hotels, which is owned by Prince Alwaleed Bin Talal Bin Abdulaziz Alsaud; and Cascade Investment, which is owned by Gates.

The offer of $82 cash reflects a 28% premium to the stock's closing price on the New York Stock Exchange on Friday.

Shares were up 28% in premarket trading.

Jane Fox : 11/6/2006 8:56:44 AM

TBonds hugged their PDLs during the overnight session suggesting they will be seeing lower lows intraday.

Natural Gas opened with a gap down and was not able to close that gap and is breaking its overnight lows as I type.

Crude stayed within its PDR overnight not giving any hints as to direction intraday.

- Gold opened its overnight session above its PDH but has since made a series of lower lows and highs suggesting it will at least test its PDL intraday. Link

Jane Fox : 11/6/2006 8:52:18 AM

Good morning. From looking at the overnight charts one has a distinct impression that the bulls were the ones in control. Although no PDH was broken, ER did test its PDH and has the highest probability of breaking this barrier intraday. Link

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