Option Investor
Printer friendly version
Jeff Bailey : 11/8/2006 12:05:40 AM

YM 12,169

Jeff Bailey : 11/8/2006 12:05:07 AM

Well ... I'm off to bed. Will watch some of the evening coverage there. Long lines here in Colorado and results may not be known for hours.

Jeff Bailey : 11/8/2006 12:01:28 AM

Pretty good blog site on election coverage Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/7/2006 11:47:14 PM

YM 12,172

Jeff Bailey : 11/7/2006 11:46:51 PM

FOX News Reporting ... GOP's Pryce Wins Ohio House Seat In District 15

Jeff Bailey : 11/7/2006 11:29:15 PM

The Power of Veto ... Some background ... Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/7/2006 11:22:53 PM

Trend Table For US Senate Races 11:12 PM EST Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/7/2006 11:13:24 PM

Mini-gold (yg06z) up 80 cents, or +0.12% at 628.70.

Jeff Bailey : 11/7/2006 11:12:07 PM

U.S. Dollar Index (dx00y) 85.40 -0.40% ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/7/2006 11:10:31 PM

YM 12,178

Jeff Bailey : 11/7/2006 11:10:02 PM

NBC Reporting ... Democrats Take Control Of US House Of Representatives ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/7/2006 11:06:34 PM

Independent Sen Lieberman Retains Conn US Senate Seat

DJ- Sen. Joe Lieberman won re-election in Connecticut as an independent candidate, defeating anti-war Democrat Ned Lamont,the Associated Press and CNN reported Tuesday.

Lieberman led Lamont 49%-40%,CNN said. The outcome is a reversal of the Aug. 8 Democratic primary, when Lamont beat Lieberman 52%-48%, a major political upset for the three-term U.S. senator and 2000 vice presidential candidate.

Lieberman's victory came after he formed the "Connecticut for Lieberman" party and continued campaigning for the state's Republican and independent voters, who comprise about 66% of the state's electorate. The strategy has been enormously successful: since his Aug. 8 drubbing, Lieberman has led in all polls, according to a compilation by RealClearPolitics.com.

Though re-elected as an independent, Lieberman has said he will caucus with the Democrats.

Jeff Bailey : 11/7/2006 11:03:52 PM

YM 12,177 ... down 11, or -0.09%. High/Low has been 12,183/12,170

Jeff Bailey : 11/7/2006 11:01:25 PM

Trend Table For US House Races ... 10:49 PM EST Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/7/2006 10:57:54 PM

Dems' Whitehouse Picks Up Rhode Island US Senate Seat

DJ- U.S. Sen. Lincoln Chafee, R-R.I., has been defeated in his bid for a second term by former Rhode Island Attorney General Sheldon Whitehouse, CNN and Fox News projected.

The defeat would be a blow to Republican efforts to retain control of the Senate. Chafee's was one of nine races considered to close to call heading into Tuesday's elections. Democrats will need to win eight of those nine races to have a 51-to-49 Senate majority in January.

The U.S. Chamber of Commerce had predicted that business interests would suffer if Chafee, the U.S. Senate's most liberal Republican, lost his re-election bid.

While Chafee hasn't been the most consistent of business allies, he's probably the best business could hope for in liberal Rhode Island. As such, he's been endorsed by the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the BPW/PAC, the political arm of Business and Professional Women/USA.

Keene Little : 11/7/2006 10:40:49 PM

Wednesday's pivot tables: Link and Link

OI Technical Staff : 11/7/2006 9:59:53 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 11/7/2006 7:22:36 PM

Thought for the day (email I received)-

In case we find ourselves starting to believe all the anti-American sentiment and negativity, we should remember England 's Prime Minister Tony Blair's words during a recent interview. When asked by one of his Parliament members why he believes so much in America , he said:

"A simple way to take measure of a country is to look at how many want in ... And how many want out." Only two defining forces have ever offered to die for you:

1. Jesus Christ

2. The American G. I.

One died for your soul, the other for your freedom. If you want to pass this on I think it would be appropriate, as many seem to forget BOTH of them.

Jeff Bailey : 11/7/2006 7:19:13 PM

YM 12,174 ... I'd better get to the voting booth! Looks like the Ds are winning and I've got to do my part to turn that tide!

Jeff Bailey : 11/7/2006 7:15:44 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/7/2006 7:09:45 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/7/2006 6:58:47 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/7/2006 5:07:46 PM


DJ- Financial-services company will decide by 1Q of calendar 2007 what to do with its subprime mortgage business as it explores alternatives, including a possible sale of unit.

HRB $23.28 +6.34% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/7/2006 5:05:40 PM


DJ- AMD cracks another account at Dell, making further inroads with a key hardware maker that until this year had an exclusive agreement to buy its chips from Intel.

Jeff Bailey : 11/7/2006 4:51:32 PM

National Semiconductor (NSM) $23.95 +0.16% Link ... slips to $23.65 in extended session.

Company Press Release (Revises Outlook for Q2 2007) Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/7/2006 4:07:14 PM

DIA $121.53 ... either side of $121.50.

Keene Little : 11/7/2006 4:05:46 PM

It's hard to read today's pattern and it leaves me guessing about tomorrow. We've either about completed a corrective pullback and we're going to continue higher tomorrow morning (I'm thinking not far though) or we're set up for a gap down and run down tomorrow. Roll the dice and place your bets. Or wait for the dust to settle tomorrow morning and we'll pick a direction from there.

Jeff Bailey : 11/7/2006 4:05:23 PM

YM ... afternoon low here has been DAILY R1 of 12,176. That might be it. Came within a point of my stop, so might be fitting a point within target.

Jeff Bailey : 11/7/2006 4:00:34 PM

Maybe not ... 12,183

Jeff Bailey : 11/7/2006 4:00:03 PM

Might just do it. YM 12,178

Jeff Bailey : 11/7/2006 3:57:15 PM

YM short cover alert 12,183

Keene Little : 11/7/2006 3:54:01 PM

NQ is dropping to a new low for this pullback so the others could follow it into the close. If this pullback is going to lead to another push higher tomorrow morning then we should find support near where we'd have two equal legs down in this afternoon's pullback. That would be at ES 1384 (the same level as yesterday's late afternoon low) and YM 12173.

YM is just now coming down to the trend line along its lows since yesterday morning's first pullback. I'm not sure about this pattern for YM but the overall look of today's pullback looks somewhat bullish, at least for another leg up. The test is here (12180) to see if it holds. Link

Keene Little : 11/7/2006 3:38:30 PM

SPX hasn't topped its October 26th high at 1389.45 and I'd be surprised if that's not accomplished. Maybe at least a brief spurt higher tomorrow followed by a pullback or worse.

Keene Little : 11/7/2006 3:35:23 PM

The short term chart signals are not very effective today--each time it begins to look bearish we see another buy program hit. These guys know exactly how to play this market.

Jeff Bailey : 11/7/2006 3:27:02 PM

YM short entry alert ... go short here at 12,196 , stop 12,206, target 12,175.

Keene Little : 11/7/2006 3:26:01 PM

Good Boyz--nice buy program. You get to keep your jobs a little longer so you can get those fat 20% bonuses.

Keene Little : 11/7/2006 3:23:20 PM

Come on Boyz, time to hit it with another buy program. Your job is not done yet.

Keene Little : 11/7/2006 3:19:47 PM

The a-d issues line has now given up the bulk of today's gains. The a-d volume has pulled back to about the mid point. This is more evidence of the bearish divergence that we're seeing at the new highs. Less participation and, dare I say, more manipulation of the indices.

Jane Fox : 11/7/2006 3:16:06 PM

* Sept. nonrevolving credit falls by $4.05 bln, or 3.21%
* Sept. revolving credit rises by $2.85 billion, or 4.00%
* Consumer credit down by most since April 1992
* Sept. consumer credit falls by $1.20 billion, or 0.61%

Jeff Bailey : 11/7/2006 3:15:27 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 11/7/2006 3:09:23 PM

ES and YM both just tested and are now pulling back from their broken uptrend lines along the lows since this morning's spike up. That looks bearish but one of the reasons I suspect we're going to see this move higher is because the pullback from today's high looks like just a corrective 3-wave move. That suggests we haven't seen the final high yet.

Jane Fox : 11/7/2006 3:09:22 PM

I find it amazing how ES's PDR is used as support or resistance?

Jane Fox : 11/7/2006 3:08:01 PM

I was running out of virtual memory on one of my computers so I just increased its virtual memory. Now if I could just figure out how to do that with the old computer between my ears.

Jeff Bailey : 11/7/2006 3:05:06 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Keene Little : 11/7/2006 3:02:34 PM

A Fib projection for the last leg up (5th wave), if that's what we're getting here, is for only a retest of today's highs. Watch for more bearish divergences with a rollover from there as a setup to get short. Just realize the extra risk around election results tonight.

Keene Little : 11/7/2006 3:00:02 PM

The pattern of the rally from Friday's low would actually look better with another new high after this pullback so bears beware of that possibility. We could see this held up right to the end of the day but then it's almost too perfect a setup for a post-election sell the news.

Jeff Bailey : 11/7/2006 2:57:30 PM

Corning (GLW) $21.11 +2.47% ... after an afternoon low of $21.00.

Jeff Bailey : 11/7/2006 2:56:11 PM


DJ- Seattle transportation company's 3Q earnings rise to $63.8 million, or 29c a share, from $48.4 million, or 22c, a year earlier. Revenue increases 18% to $1.23 billion from last year's $1.05 billion.

EXPD $46.74 -1.32% Link ...

Keene Little : 11/7/2006 2:51:29 PM

Jeff, that home builders chart looks more like a bear flag. The ol' dead cat bounce after its steep sell off in the first half of the year.

Keene Little : 11/7/2006 2:47:13 PM

You mean this one Jane?

Jeff Bailey : 11/7/2006 2:46:20 PM

I don't know as if I'd say "the homebuilders have had such a sharp move off the bottom." Link

Jane Fox : 11/7/2006 2:40:12 PM

Dosen't it just feel like there is a buy program lurking in the crevasses just waiting to bounce on unsuspecting bears.

Keene Little : 11/7/2006 2:34:31 PM

ES was able to recapture its uptrend line from Sept 11th through Sept 25th which is currently at 1382 so that could be where we're headed today if the pullback continues. A 38% retracement of this week's rally is at 1382.50. This 60-min chart shows MACD and RSI rolling over and crossed down. Link

Jane Fox : 11/7/2006 2:29:23 PM

Ok this is getting a little more interesting now. ES is now testing its PDH support and VIX has spiked to new daily highs. Will ES's support hold, VIX says no.

Jeff Bailey : 11/7/2006 2:28:55 PM

Software and N. Amer. Telecom slip red

Jane Fox : 11/7/2006 2:27:00 PM

Oh my goodness the bears are getting stronger - VIX almost to new daily highs.

Jeff Bailey : 11/7/2006 2:23:34 PM


DJ- Net income helped by recent acquisitions rises to $1.46 billion, or $3.15 a share, compared with $598 million a year ago. Revenue more than doubles to $3.5 billion. Without acquisitions and gains, firm earns about $1.75 a share; analysts expected $1.35.

APC $47.27 -2.27% Link ...

Jane Fox : 11/7/2006 2:22:27 PM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The Federal Reserve Bank of New York met Monday with primary bond dealers to discuss "ways to strengthen market practices" after officials warned about suspicious trading.

Officials from the New York Fed and the Treasury Department met with the senior management and compliance officers of 22 Wall Street bond-dealing firms, the New York Fed said in a statement. New York Fed officials "highlighted the importance of integrating strong management oversight and compliance in day-to-day operations," the statement added.

The meeting followed a Sept. 27 speech by James Clouse, the Treasury's deputy assistant secretary for federal finance. He said that Treasury has seen an increase in suspicious trading practices in the cash, repo and futures markets for Treasury securities.

"We have observed instances in which firms appeared to gain a significant degree of control over highly sought-after Treasury issues and seemed to use that market power to their advantage," Clouse said in a speech to the Bond Market Association's government securities and funding division.

As a result, according to Clouse, prices in those three markets appear to have been distorted.

The statement from the New York Fed said that the discussion focused on "ways to strengthen market practices in the Treasury market so as to maintain its status as the deepest and most-liquid sovereign debt market in the world.

"It is essential to maintain market standards that promote market efficiency and do not adversely affect the cost of borrowing for the U.S. government," the statement added.

The Fed didn't name banks that may have engaged in questionable trading.

Keene Little : 11/7/2006 2:21:57 PM

With this push higher by the DOW, and it might not be quite finished yet, it has come within spitting distance of a potentially important Fib projection just under 12215 (cash) which is where we'd have a measured move in the market--two equal legs up from October 2005. On a larger time frame, in looking at the move up from October 2002, there's another Fib projection at 12198 so the 12200 area holds some very interesting potential here for a major top. And we're within the Fibonacci turn window now. All very interesting... Link

Also interesting is how daily RSI has jumped back up to test its own broken uptrend line from June. If it were to roll back over from here it would leave a very nasty bearish divergence against the October 26th high. I'm beginning to think of legging into a few December 2007 puts now.

Jeff Bailey : 11/7/2006 2:21:30 PM

FDX $114.58 +0.56% Link

UPS $75.18 +0.77% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/7/2006 2:19:48 PM


DJ- Package-delivery company agrees to acquire 15 new 777 Freighter aircraft from Boeing, with an option to purchase an additional 15 more, and cancels an order for 10 A380 aircraft from Airbus citing significant delays.

BA $83.91 +4.26% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/7/2006 2:11:51 PM

DDX.X 158.47 -0.30% ... of 0.50 point, but when it slipped red, things just flattened out for tech

Jeff Bailey : 11/7/2006 2:10:21 PM

Well ... that was an "exciting" couple of hours wasn't it?

GLW best was $21.20.

Jeff Bailey : 11/7/2006 2:09:13 PM

Bullish day trade stop alert ... for Corning (GLW) $21.04

Jane Fox : 11/7/2006 2:07:31 PM

HMMM internals turning a little more bearish? Certainly more bearish than yesterday but that is not saying much. Link

Keene Little : 11/7/2006 2:06:25 PM

It's still all very minor selling in the larger pattern but the up close and personal pattern is taking on a bearish smell.

Jane Fox : 11/7/2006 2:06:10 PM

This consolidating at daily highs usually means higher highs but I don't think today is one of your "normal" days. Link

Keene Little : 11/7/2006 2:05:34 PM

This selling is starting to look more serious.

Keene Little : 11/7/2006 2:01:41 PM

The way this is chopping its way higher, and as can be seen on the YM 5-min chart it's forming a small ascending wedge, the whole thing looks like an ending pattern to me. YM is threatening to break below the bottom of the pattern now, at 12206, but if it manages to get another buying spike up to the top of the pattern, currently near 12224, I'd consider shorting it up there. In the meantime I'm waiting to see if we start to break down. Link

Keene Little : 11/7/2006 1:53:26 PM

On my YM 60-min chart RSI has now reached the extreme overbought level that has marked highs in previous buying spikes since July. We're due for a rest so either this afternoon or certainly tomorrow. I'm still thinking sell the news once elections are over. Are there really that many more shorts to spike out of the market to get another big buying spike post-elections?

Keene Little : 11/7/2006 1:37:42 PM

We also have a-d volume pulling back, something that didn't happen yesterday. The a-d issues line keeps pulling back as well. So it's weaker but by no means weak. The buying spike as I type tells us there is money that's bound and determined to hold this up.

Seems a few bankers may have been given some cash to play with yesterday and today with simple instructions--"I want to see new highs and do not let it sell off before the elections." With a snappy salute and an "aye aye Sir" the dutiful bankers' traders are doing their bidding. But as the afternoon wears on that may become less and less of a requirement.

Keene Little : 11/7/2006 1:30:26 PM

The 30-min stochastics (fast setting) is now dropping a little faster than it had started dropping yesterday so by that measure we have something a little different today than we saw yesterday.

Keene Little : 11/7/2006 1:28:29 PM

But NQ is still within today's trading range and could easily see this flip right back around and head for new highs again. It's risky either way here so tight stops if you're trading this.

Keene Little : 11/7/2006 1:26:21 PM

ES and YM are testing, oops, make that breaking, today's uptrend line.

Jeff Bailey : 11/7/2006 1:20:33 PM

CDE $5.08 +3.46% ... CDE-KA are $0.15 x $0.20.

Jeff Bailey : 11/7/2006 1:16:25 PM

SPX NH/NL currently 33:0

On 10/26/06 at same price level, SPX NH/NL finished 40:0

10/18/06 was "best" NH of 73:2

Jeff Bailey : 11/7/2006 1:13:26 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 11/7/2006 1:11:11 PM

Those who are holding this up will want to maintain higher lows for the pullbacks so based on that one could buy this pullback and just use the last low as your stop. Once again draw a trend line along the lows since the first pullback after this morning's spike up and use that as your guide--long above, short below.

Keene Little : 11/7/2006 1:04:33 PM

The buying spikes are followed by selling and this chopping higher is what continues to give me the impression we're in a topping process even if only for the day. It looks more like distribution. Of course we chopped higher like this yesterday and then spiked higher out of it this morning. I can't quite put my finger on it but I don't like a long play here so I sit and I watch. Maybe some normal ebb and flow trading will return after the elections.

Jeff Bailey : 11/7/2006 1:02:34 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 11/7/2006 12:58:07 PM

The bulls still have the ball I'm afraid. Link

Jane Fox : 11/7/2006 12:48:09 PM

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Following the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries' decision to cut output, the price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil will likely climb over the next several months, according to a monthly report from the Energy Information Administration, the reporting arm of the Energy Department. The report said crude prices will average around $66 per barrel in 2006 and $65 in 2007. World petroleum demand will likely rise by 1 million barrels per day in 2006 and by 1.5 million in 2007, it said. The EIA said it doesn't expect any growth in total natural-gas demand for 2006 vs. 2005, but it predicts a 1.3% demand increase in 2007.

Keene Little : 11/7/2006 12:41:22 PM

I'm getting the impression they're just holding this up now and am wondering at one point they'll be done holding it up.

Jeff Bailey : 11/7/2006 12:40:59 PM

Bullish day trade raise stop alert ... on the GLW $21.14 +2.62% .... to $21.04.

Jeff Bailey : 11/7/2006 12:39:48 PM

CSCO and NWX.X juuuust under their respective WEEKLY R2.

Jane Fox : 11/7/2006 12:38:15 PM

* Energy Dept. expects WTI crude to average $66/brl in '06
* Energy Dept. expects WTI crude to average $65/brl in '07
* World-oil demand seen up 1 mln brls/day in '06: Energy Dept.
* Energy Dept. expects no growth in '06 natural-gas demand
* Energy Dept. sees 1.3% rise in '07 natural-gas demand

Jane Fox : 11/7/2006 12:36:49 PM

* NYSE volume 776.7M
* NYSE has 2,087 advancers
* NYSE has 1,020 decliners
* NYSE has 162 issues unchanged *
NYSE has 268 issues setting 52-week highs
* NYSE has 20 issues setting 52-week lows
* Nasdaq volume 1.07B
* Nasdaq has 1,941 gainers
* Nasdaq has 1,001 losers
* Nasdaq has 121 issues unchanged
* Nasdaq has 164 issues setting 52-week highs
* Nasdaq has 51 issues setting 52-week lows

Jane Fox : 11/7/2006 12:22:01 PM

Here is the AD Line and AD Volume. Link

Keene Little : 11/7/2006 12:21:41 PM

That last quick spike higher got sold into. Could be an indication of topping for the day. If this continues to chop a little higher it will start to look more bearish for the afternoon.

Jeff Bailey : 11/7/2006 12:21:41 PM

Nymex Seat/Share Bundle Sells For Record $5.8M Before IPO

DJ- A New York Mercantile Exchange seat bundled with 90,000 shares sold for a record $5.8 million Monday, as the bourse readies to go public next week.

The price, posted on the Nymex Web site, beat the previous record of $5.5 million set April 28, shortly after parent company Nymex Holdings Inc. started on the path to becoming a public company.

The exchange, which is selling about 7% of what will be its total stock, is due to price its initial public offering Nov. 16, according to its road show presentation. That timing indicates it is due to list on the New York Stock Exchange Nov. 17.

Nymex has 816 seatholders and in March issued them with 90,000 shares each. The shares have since been traded among seatholders.

Keene Little : 11/7/2006 12:18:21 PM

We have indices pressing to new highs and the a-d volume is on a steady climb like yesterday. Money just keeps pouring in. But a-d issues, like yesterday, has been dropping since this morning's high. Need I say again something just isn't natural about this rally?

Keene Little : 11/7/2006 12:16:09 PM

Since the high just after 10:00 AM it looks like ES is forming a sideways triangle which should be a continuation pattern for a move higher. Starting as I type?

Jeff Bailey : 11/7/2006 12:09:50 PM

Bullish day trade long alert for shares of Corning (GLW) $21.11 +2.47% here, stop $20.90, target $21.40

Jeff Bailey : 11/7/2006 12:01:26 PM

S&P Banks (BIX.X) 398.91 +0.31% ... have been sitting on top of WEEKLY R1 since 10:00 AM EST.

Jeff Bailey : 11/7/2006 11:58:21 AM

Bema Gold (BGO) $5.14 -2.65% ...

Kinross Gold (KGC) $11.83 -1.49% ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/7/2006 11:57:17 AM

Coeur d'Alene Mines (CDE) $5.04 +2.64% ... pops its head above WEEKLY R1 ($5.03)

Jeff Bailey : 11/7/2006 11:52:59 AM

Motorola (MOT) $22.07 -3.28% Link ... slips back under its rather flat 200-day SMA Link

Tab Gilles : 11/7/2006 11:51:27 AM

$NAHGH/$NALOW/$NDX As I mentioned i yesterday's post at 11:19 AM, I expected the 1750 level to be re-tested. Possiblly more to go, reason only 1/2 position is short via USPIX.


%NDXA200 Link Link


$NASI Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/7/2006 11:41:00 AM

Cancel prior covered call alert cancel prior order to sell five (5) of the Coeur d'Alene Mines CDE Nov $5 Calls for $0.25.

Jeff Bailey : 11/7/2006 11:39:52 AM

Swing trade covered call alert ... Let's go ahead and sell ten (10) of the Coeur d'Alene Mines CDE Nov. $5 Calls (CDE-KA) at the bid of $0.15.

CDE $5.00 x $5.01.

Keene Little : 11/7/2006 11:36:15 AM

I can't help but feel this market is set up for a major sell-the-news event once this election is over.

Jeff Bailey : 11/7/2006 11:28:15 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 11/7/2006 11:09:27 AM

The DOW is still stalled at its previous high but so far we can't say it's anything other than a consolidation near the high. The longer it consolidates here the more bullish it should be. Conversely if a consolidation breaks down it would likely be a strong sell off. From a short term perspective it looks like a minor new high could lead to at least a larger pullback.

Jeff Bailey : 11/7/2006 11:02:07 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 11/7/2006 11:01:41 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The New York Mercantile Exchange said the volume of crude oil futures traded electronically Monday was double that of open outcry, or floor, trading for the first time.

Nymex crude futures traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's (CME) Globex platform had a volume of 220,532 contracts, compared with 100,563 contracts in the New York trading pit, where brokers deal by shouting and using hand signals, Nymex said in its daily volume report, released Tuesday.

Screen volumes have surged since Sept. 5 when Nymex extended its hours to the same as those of the 134-year-old exchange's floor trading. While electronic trading looks to have been a successful ploy in regaining market share lost to IntercontinentalExchange Inc. (ICE), floor volumes look to be dropping fast.

Screen volume Monday was the second-highest ever while open outcry volume was the third-lowest since Sept. 5. Before simultaneous screen and floor trading was allowed, screen volumes were usually below 20,000.

In the first four trading days of November, screen trading volume averaged 202,876 contracts, compared to 115,799 on the floor. Before the introduction of side-by-side trading, floor volume averaged more than 200,000 contracts a day.

Jeff Bailey : 11/7/2006 10:56:50 AM


DJ- Redbook says national retail sales edge higher during the first week of November. Reading misses target of a 0.2% rise. International Council of Shopping Centers-UBS Retail Chain Store Sales Index increases by 1.0%.

Jeff Bailey : 11/7/2006 10:54:45 AM


DJ- Toyota Motor says its group net profit soared 34% in the July-September quarter from a year earlier, driven by robust sales in North America and Europe and a weaker yen. The automaker also raises its full fiscal year outlook to $13.16 billion.

TM $121.59 +1.55% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/7/2006 10:48:50 AM


DJ- Auto maker reduces its 3Q loss by $24 million to $91 million, because of additional loan sales that hadn't been previously reported by its GMAC arm. GMAC loses $324 million, not the previously reported $348 million.

GM $34.75 +0.14% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/7/2006 10:42:07 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List at this Link

Keene Little : 11/7/2006 10:30:31 AM

Gotta get that all-time high as we head into the polls. Manipulated? Nah, too hard to do (cough).

Jane Fox : 11/7/2006 10:30:17 AM

TRIN at 1.35 and making new daily highs is saying something smells but who will be the first to good check out what is smelling. Not me!

Keene Little : 11/7/2006 10:29:37 AM

The DOW made a minor new all-time high and is currently stalled. I get the feeling there's more to the upside though.

Keene Little : 11/7/2006 10:22:16 AM

NQ has exceed its previous high at 1757. It might struggle here with some profit taking.

Keene Little : 11/7/2006 10:20:47 AM

Pretty relentless buying again. YM is close to tagging its October 26th high at 12213.

Jane Fox : 11/7/2006 10:14:51 AM

The TRIN is the only internal that is saying something is amiss but with the VIX and AD volume so dang bullish by itself is not even reason to get out of a long let alone get into a short. Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/7/2006 10:12:03 AM


DJ- Profit declines to $91.9 million, or $2.19 a share, as revenue rises 4% to $1.88 billion, beating expectations of $1.65 a share on sales of $1.51 billion. New orders decline 58%.

BZH $42.19 +0.59% Link ...

Jane Fox : 11/7/2006 10:12:02 AM

AD volume is in the same tajectory as it was yesterday. However, I have NEVER seen it go straight up (like yesterday) two days in a row.

Keene Little : 11/7/2006 10:11:09 AM

YM has a bit more of a broadening formation since yesterday morning's spike up. This is typically an ending pattern so be careful about a short term top being put in here. Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/7/2006 10:10:06 AM


DJ- Luxury home builder's 4Q revenue falls 10% to $1.81 million, as its backlog drops 25% to $4.49 billion and signed contracts slip 55% to $710 million. Toll cuts its delivery guidance for the next fiscal year, expecting to deliver 6,300 to 7,300 homes, compared with previous view of 7,000 to 8,000. Firm says it doesn't see a recovery in sight.

TOL $27.97 -0.28% Link ...

Jane Fox : 11/7/2006 10:10:02 AM

TICKS +1000

Jane Fox : 11/7/2006 10:09:50 AM

The sellers will come back to town at some point but I surely don't know when.

Jeff Bailey : 11/7/2006 10:05:06 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 11/7/2006 10:03:18 AM

These are telling you now is not the time to be short. Link

Keene Little : 11/7/2006 10:02:03 AM

You can see in the 5-min chart I just posted the bearish divergence at the new highs for this move. I know, so what else is new.

Keene Little : 11/7/2006 9:58:26 AM

ES's tight up-channel since mid-morning yesterday is still holding after a brief break at this morning's spike down. The top of the channel is approaching 1388 and the bottom is now near 1384.50. A break of this channel should indicate we're starting at least a larger consolidation/pullback. Until then this is bullish. Link

Jane Fox : 11/7/2006 9:55:51 AM

TRIN above its PDH so bulls beware.

Jane Fox : 11/7/2006 9:55:32 AM

ES has not been able to break its PDH which look like will be the top today.

Keene Little : 11/7/2006 9:42:03 AM

Getting a little volatility this morning. Now it looks like the quick sell off was snapped up as a buying opportunity. Being short term overbought this is not where I'd want to buy in but it's hard to tell these days. I'm waiting for the dust to settle.

Jane Fox : 11/7/2006 9:40:16 AM

AD line is sort of bullish +573 and AD volume is above 0 and climbing.

Keene Little : 11/7/2006 9:37:25 AM

Seeing this kind of sell off right after the open I get the feeling the futures were manipulated higher overnight in order to accommodate the selling. But the trend lines along the lows after yesterday morning's spike up are still holding for ES and YM (not NQ), currently at 1384 and 12129, resp. A break below these levels would say we're probably now starting a deeper pullback at least.

Keene Little : 11/7/2006 9:31:38 AM

So far YM's pop higher at its open (8:20 AM) and drop back down is a pretty clear gap n crap. Now we'll see what happens after gap closure (assuming that's where we're headed).

Keene Little : 11/7/2006 9:17:09 AM

As Jane commented in her 9:07 post, yes, I'm pretty disgusted by the story about the bonuses for the investment bankers. It's highway robbery condoned and supported by our Fed and SEC and now they're getting doubly rewarded for criminal behavior. Some day it will all end and I truly hope some people are thrown in jail for it. Power and money corrupts and that's always been true but it seems to have been taken to a new level in our political, corporate and financial circles. We need a good cleaning to get us back to health.

Jane Fox : 11/7/2006 9:13:20 AM

I think I am going to submit a new spelling for "the" - teh. Seems to be a lot easier for me to type.

Jane Fox : 11/7/2006 9:12:14 AM

The dollar is down so what do you think Gold is doing? Yup it is up although not to its PDH yet. I remain bullish on Gold.

TBonds are making a nice recovery from the drubbing they took last week due to the employment data.

The energy markets were mostly neutral overnight. I will take a look at their daily charts later in the day. Link

Keene Little : 11/7/2006 9:11:29 AM

We've got another gap up in the making, unless futures come back to even before the open. Short term we're overbought (actually long term too with the DOW bullish percent at an astounding 87%) but so what else is new. But we should get at least a consolidation if not a pullback before proceeding higher and I wouldn't trust a gap up open this morning to hold. NQ is getting hit harder in the last 30 minutes and is closer to getting back to the flat line for the open.

Jane Fox : 11/7/2006 9:07:37 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Investment bankers can expect bonus increases of more than 20%, according to a survey released Tuesday by Johnson Associates, a Wall Street consultant. Bonuses should rise 10% to 15% across the board for prime brokerage, equities, asset management, senior managers and corporate staff. Retail, fixed income and commercial bankers may see increases between 5% and 10%, Johnson Associates said. (Keene will love this story)

Jane Fox : 11/7/2006 9:06:42 AM

Both ES and YM broke their PDHs and I anticipate higher highs before the bulls get tried of all this gorging and take a rest (ie traders take some profits off the table). However, I wouldn't even think of shorting this market until the internals tell me it is OK and even then I'm not sure I will try. What we are seeing is unexplained exuberance and when it comes to an end it will not be pretty. That end though is not anywhere in sight. Link

Jane Fox : 11/7/2006 8:57:33 AM

BOSTON (MarketWatch) -- Toll Brothers Inc. early Tuesday said contracts for new homes fell 57% in its fiscal fourth quarter from the previous year as the luxury home builder said it hasn't yet sighted a recovery in the housing market. The Horsham, Pa., company (TOL) said home orders for the quarter ended Oct. 31 fell to 1,035 from 2,426 a year earlier, while home-building revenues declined 10% and its backlog of homes awaiting construction fell 25%.

Toll said its orders were hit by higher cancellations, which as a percentage of contracts in the fourth quarter rose to 37% from 18% in the fiscal third quarter. Nearly 25% of all fourth-quarter cancellations were centered in its Orlando and Northern California markets.

The company said it is scaling back its land position and expects to take write-downs on owned and optioned land between $50 million and $100 million in the latest quarter, which would lower after-tax quarterly earnings by about 18 cents to 36 cents a share.

Toll said it will update its earnings outlook for fiscal 2007 during its conference call on Dec. 5, the day it's scheduled to release full fourth-quarter results. The company lowered its home-delivery estimate for fiscal 2007 to a range of 6,300 and 7,300 homes, down from its previous forecast of 7,000 to 8,000 deliveries.

"We continue to look for signs that a recovery is imminent but can't yet say that one is in sight," said Chief Executive Robert Toll in the earnings release.

Market Monitor Archives