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Tab Gilles : 11/14/2006 12:56:27 AM

Open Positions Portfolio & Stock Watch List Link



Profund Ultra Short OTC (USPIX) & UltraShort SmallCap (UCPIX) Link Link

Energy Select (XLE)Trailing Stop 20-ema per 11/13 11:16AM post. Link

Keene Little : 11/13/2006 10:57:44 PM

Tuesday's pivot tables: Link and Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2006 10:42:44 PM

StockCharts.com's Major Market Bullish %

NYSE Comp. Bullish % ($BPNYA) 70.63% Link ... very broad with more than 3,000 point and figure charts.

NASDAQ Comp. Bullish % ($BPCOMPQ) 56.29% Link ... very broad with more than 3,000 point and figure charts.

S&P 500 Bullish % ($BPSPX) 75.8% Link ... broad with 500 point and figure charts (Dorsey/Wright's currently 74.85%).

S&P 100 Bullish % ($BPOEX) 82% Link ... narrow with 100 point and figure charts (Dorsey/Wright's currently 77% as charts not "adjusted" for dividends).

NASDAQ-100 Bullish % ($BPNDX) 64% Link (Dorsey/Wright's currently 63%. Not big dividend payers in NDX/QQQQ).

OI Technical Staff : 11/13/2006 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2006 5:20:48 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2006 4:59:13 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2006 4:47:45 PM

QQQQ's 30-largest Market Cap components at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2006 4:26:53 PM


DJ- CME's planned purchase of Chicago Board of Trade could lead an increase in spread trading, or the simultaneous buying and selling of products offered at the two exchanges, which could lead to increased overall trading volume.

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2006 4:16:59 PM

QQQQ Closes at multi-year high! $43.46 +0.99% ... highest level since moving to NASDAQ listing on 12/01/04.

Keene Little : 11/13/2006 4:02:22 PM

Tale of two markets here--NQ is climbing into the close and spiking higher at the close while ES and YM are sinking at the close. It's possible NQ is forming a bearish ascending wedge which calls for a little more upside before running out of steam. Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2006 3:58:07 PM


DJ- Already in a frenzied push to expand its auto output, Toyota is stepping up its race to open new factories as part of a confidential blueprint to grab a 15% global market share by 2010 amid an expected surge in car sales in India, China and other emerging markets.

TM $120.78 -0.85% Link ...

Keene Little : 11/13/2006 3:50:46 PM

INTC is also hitting its downward sloping 20-dma at 21.10 (today's high so far is 21.07). INTC last tested this moving average at last Tuesday's high and was rejected.

Keene Little : 11/13/2006 3:48:38 PM

Jane, that would help explain the jump. INTC is up about 2% for the day. Too bad today's bounce only brings it up to its previously broken uptrend line from August through the Sept low. With the SOX pressing its 200-dma and INTC pressing its broken uptrend line, both could be ready for a kiss and slap goodbye.

Jane Fox : 11/13/2006 3:43:11 PM

Keene is the culprit for your 2:54 post "NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stocks rose Monday as concerns over slowing growth eased after a Fed official said the economy was growing "forcefully," with Intel Corp. a notable gainer after broker Citigroup upgraded the semiconductor sector."

Jane Fox : 11/13/2006 3:41:22 PM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Treasury prices closed under pressure Monday afternoon, sending yields higher, after Dallas Federal Reserve President Richard Fisher Bank characterized the economy as "growing forcefully."

The remark stirred worries that the Fed may have to maintain an aggressive rates policy.

Prices are also being pressured as investors reposition their holdings ahead of a stream of important data reports and a large amount of corporate issuance later in the week.

Jane Fox : 11/13/2006 3:40:34 PM

BOSTON (MarketWatch) -- The nation's largest home builder is expected to post lower earnings in a week that could see heavy trading in the housing sector, on the release of the minutes of the latest Federal Reserve meeting on interest rates along with October starts.

D.R. Horton Inc. (DHI) is expected to release financial results for its fiscal fourth quarter ended Sept. 30 before the market opens Tuesday. In early October, the company preannounced some results, saying that net sales orders for new homes fell 25% from the previous year as cancellations surged. Analysts surveyed by Thomson First Call see the Fort Worth, Texas-based builder posting quarterly profit of 69 cents a share, down from $1.77 the prior year. Full-year net income is predicted to drop to $3.72 from $4.62 a share

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2006 3:42:26 PM


DJ- Hitachi and GE combine nuclear-power divisions through a joint shareholding arrangement, forming two joint-venture companies, as they aim to win contracts for new plant construction in the U.S. and other promising markets.

HIT $59.47 +0.83% Link ...

GE $35.39 +0.62% Link ...

Jane Fox : 11/13/2006 3:39:31 PM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- A handful of initial public offerings that have the potential to be blockbusters -- from the parent of the New York Mercantile Exchange, car-rental giant Hertz and engineering-services mainstay Kellogg Brown & Root -- highlights a pre-Thanksgiving rush of $3.2 billion in new issues this week.

With the IPO market riding the overall stock market's rally, the second-richest slate of deals so far this year are scheduled to go off, led by the $1.5 billion IPO from Hertz Global Holdings (HTZ) , a former unit of Ford (F) .

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2006 3:19:02 PM

United Parcel Service (UPS) $76.17 +0.80% ... has been bumping its WEEKLY R1 ($76.25) today. Also its longer-term 200-day SMA ($76.33).

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2006 3:14:41 PM

On October 26, the SPY closed $138.78.

SPY $138.73 +0.35% ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2006 3:12:34 PM

SPX NH/NL now 40:0

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2006 3:12:12 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 11/13/2006 3:08:41 PM

The way this is chopping sideways/higher since today's low gives me the impression we're going to get another leg down in the pullback that started at this morning's high. If it instead continues to chop its way higher to marginal new highs then that will actually begin to look more intermediate term, if not long term, bearish.

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2006 3:02:55 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2006 2:55:51 PM

Internet Bullish % (BPINET) still "bull alert" status (from 09/05/06 at 36.00%) and 52%. Would take a 60.00% reading to achieve "bull confirmed" status, or a reversing lower reading of 46% to revert back to "bear confirmed" status.

Keene Little : 11/13/2006 2:54:34 PM

I'd like to know who's impersonating the SOX today--they're one of the strongest sectors today. They could be playing catch-up and might be a good buy. Or with the SOX reaching up to its 200-dma it could be a goodbye. The SOX's 200-dma is at 470.82 and SOX is currently pressing up towards 469. The SOX was strongly rejected at its 200-dma when it last touched it on October 16th. SMH, currently at 34.11, is not yet as close to its 200-dma at 34.54.

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2006 2:50:43 PM

Baidu.com (BIDU) $102.81 +6.74% Link ... has cleared 50% retracement ($99.21) from post-IPO high $153.98 to January's low of $44.44.

Keene Little : 11/13/2006 2:36:31 PM

Drawing downtrend lines along today's highs and lows gives us a downward facing megaphone which could be interpreted as a bullish consolidation pattern. The bottom of the pattern, if we're to get another leg down inside it (which is the way I'm leaning) is currently near 1385. The top of the pattern is at 1390.75. I'd consider a short play at the top of the pattern and then buy the bottom. Other than that this is a choppy mess today.

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2006 2:32:50 PM

SPY $138.78 +0.39% ... 60-minute interval chart with updated WEEKLY Pivot retracement at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2006 2:11:20 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2006 2:05:51 PM

US Govt. September Budget Surplus Revised To $56.16B vs. $56.03B

October Deficit $49.29B

DJ- The U.S. federal government ran a monthly budget deficit of $49.29 billion in October, up 4.3% from a year earlier, the Treasury Department said Monday.

Treasury's monthly budget statement shows outlays were $216.98 billion last month, up 10.3% from a year earlier.

Government receipts in October were $167.69 billion, up 12.2% from a year earlier.

Both receipts and outlays were records for the month of October, Treasury said, while noting that the government has run a deficit every October since 1954.

The Treasury on Monday also revised the government's September surplus to $56.16 billion from a previously reported $56.03 billion.

The October deficit figure was in line with the Congressional Budget Office's estimate of a $49.0 billion deficit during the month.

The White House has projected the budget deficit for fiscal year 2007 will total $339 billion, about one-third larger than last fiscal year.

But the CBO has projected a $286 billion budget gap for the full fiscal year, and private-sector analysts likewise expect less government red ink for the coming fiscal year.

Individual income-tax receipts totaled $86.22 billion in October, up 15% from the same period last year. Corporate income taxes totaled $9.35 billion last month, up 53% from the same period last year.

Last month the government paid net interest last month on the federal debt of $18.95 billion. Net interest on the federal debt excludes interest paid on nonmarketable government securities held by federal trust funds, such as Social Security.

The Treasury said it plans to release budget data for November on Dec. 12.

Keene Little : 11/13/2006 1:57:46 PM

If this leg up is instead the 5th wave in the move up from Friday's low then a Fib projection for it is at 1392.25 which would be a retest of this morning's high. Watch for bearish divergence if it rolls back over from there since it would be a good short play setup.

Keene Little : 11/13/2006 1:54:02 PM

Getting another spike up. If it's finishing a corrective bounce from the low near 1:00 PM then it should stall out below ES 1390 and YM 12182. Otherwise today's downtrend line near 1391 could be resistance.

Jane Fox : 11/13/2006 1:52:40 PM

Guess who is back in town - the rescue team TICK +800

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2006 1:51:03 PM

DJ NEWSWIRES SURVEY- US Retail Sales, PPI Seen Lower

DJ- Falloff in auto sales and weakness in gas prices are expected to pull down retail sales 0.4% in October. Producer price index is expected fall 0.6% in October, but the nonfood, non-energy core is expected to rise 0.1%.

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2006 1:47:59 PM

QQQQ $43.31 +0.62% ... back to test DAILY R2 ($43.28).

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2006 1:40:34 PM


DJ- Citigroup bids $3 billion for 85% of Guangdong Development Bank, which has assets of $48 billion. IBM could take 5% stake of the Chinese bank if Citigroup bid is successful, says source.

C $50.70 +0.13% Link

IBM $92.16 +0.43% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2006 1:37:57 PM


DJ- Shares slide 5.5% as Western Refining amends deal to buy Giant, lowering price to $77 per share from $83 a share. Giant's 3Q earnings fall to $44 million, or $3 per share, but exceed analysts' expectations for profit of $2.47 a share.

GI $76.58 -5.39% Link ...

WNR $25.33 +1.32% Link ...

Jane Fox : 11/13/2006 1:27:40 PM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The New York Mercantile Exchange's initial public offering is already "massively oversubscribed," with the deal still not expected to price until Thursday night, according to Scott Sweet, managing director of IPO Boutique. "Deals like this come rarely in a given year," said Sweet, who reiterated his top rating of 5 on the IPO. Nymex plans to offer 6 million shares priced at $48 to $52 each with underwriters J.P. Morgan and Merrill Lynch.

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2006 1:24:25 PM


DJ- Wall Street analysts dole out some tough predictions for the beverage industry, particularly soft drink bottlers. Two analysts cite headwinds from raw material inflation, sluggish demand for soft drinks, and expected price increases.

Jane Fox : 11/13/2006 1:22:57 PM

Just to add to the confusion today the TRIN is a bullish 0.76.

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2006 1:22:34 PM


DJ- Philadelphia Fed's 4Q survey shows economists expect economy to grow by a 2.5% annual rate, versus original estimate of 2.9%. First quarter 2007 economic growth is seen at a 2.7% annualized increase, down from the previous estimate of 2.9%.

Jane Fox : 11/13/2006 1:21:17 PM

AD line is now below 0 at -165. Not a big deal but certainly not where you want to see the AD line if you are hoping for new daily highs.

Keene Little : 11/13/2006 1:19:03 PM

The ES chart that I showed at 11:14 shows the bottom of the potential bull flag pattern intersecting the July-Sept uptrend line on Wednesday at 1378. As Jane pointed out, maybe I'll get my wish today. I shorted this morning's high in ES and have now moved my stop down (not much) to 1392 which is two ticks above the last high at 1391.50. We could see a very choppy decline so I'm going to try to stay away from the chop.

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2006 1:13:41 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Jane Fox : 11/13/2006 1:10:49 PM

Maybe Keene is going to get his wish today. The bullish MACD I was seeing earlier has morphed into a bearish divergence, AD volume is falling and the VIX is climbing.

Tab Gilles : 11/13/2006 1:05:16 PM

$GASO Has the unleaded gasoling index made a bottom? Link

Valero (VLO) Link Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2006 1:03:48 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Keene Little : 11/13/2006 1:03:32 PM

Could you post a chart with technicals for pwi?

Regan, the chart on PWI is ugly. Any more questions? OK, all kidding aside, this stock doesn't look so good. Here's the weekly chart: Link

The 2004-2006 rally has been given up relatively quickly and that certainly looks bearish. There doesn't appear to be much support below the current price before the 2004 low at 15.35. MACD is in full dive mode with no hint of turning and certainly no bullish divergence. RSI could give a hint of bullish divergence if price finds support soon.

From a Fib perspective I could see this one finding support at 19.12. That's where the 2nd leg down from its 2006 high will equal 162% of the 1st leg down. Whether the move down this year is an A-B-C move or a 1-2-3 can't be known yet (not until we see what kind of bounce develops after the current leg down is finished). A 78.6% retracement of the 2004-2006 rally is at 19.11 so good correlation with the Fibs for support there.

Zooming in a little closer on the daily chart doesn't show me anything different: Link While there's a hint that we could see some bullish divergences developing soon, there's absolutely nothing telling me I should jump in front of this southbound train. Another dollar lower and I might be interested in playing a bounce but not yet.

Hope that helps.

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2006 1:00:05 PM


DJ- Anadarko is selling its Genghis Khan discovery in the Gulf of Mexico for $1.35 billion to owners of the adjacent Shenzi field including Australian mining company BHP Billiton, Hess and Spain's Repsol YPF.

APC $46.78 -0.99% Link ...

BHP $40.41 -4.49% Link ...

HES $45.21 +0.46% Link

REP $35.65 -0.50% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2006 12:52:53 PM


DJ- Sun Microsystems is making its Java software available on an open-source basis, part of the company's effort to keep current with a technology trend that has changed how programs are written and distributed.

SUNW $5.35 +1.51% Link ...

Keene Little : 11/13/2006 12:51:43 PM

YM also tagged its equivalent level for two equal legs down--at 12169.

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2006 12:50:43 PM


DJ- Shares climb 6% after Wynn Resorts declares a special dividend of $6 a share to shareholders of record as of Nov. 23. Company says Jack Binion will give up his day-to-day operational responsibilities at Wynn Macau to become a director of Wynn Resorts.

WYNN $87.81 +6.83% Link ...

Keene Little : 11/13/2006 12:50:22 PM

The sudden spike down now is either finishing today's consolidation (wave-C of an A-B-C pullback) or else it's the start of a deeper retracement/move back to the bottom of the past week's consolidation. If it's the former then two equal legs down is at ES 1388, just tagged as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2006 12:49:00 PM


DJ- Communications company loses an appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court on whether it must turn over privileged documents in class-action suits related to accounting fraud allegations against the company.

Q $8.26 +0.36% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2006 12:46:53 PM

S&P 500 Index (SPX.X) 1,383.89 +0.36% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2006 12:45:44 PM


DJ- Dallas Fed president notes the U.S. economy continues to grow robustly in the current global environment. Fisher also says policy-makers must be mindful of global economic environment when they determine the correct path for interest rates.

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2006 12:43:56 PM


DJ- Stock-options fraud scandal claims one of the nation's most successful and highly paid chief executives, KB Home's Bruce Karatz, who agrees to leave the company after an internal investigation finds that he backdated his own option grants to increase his pay. Chief Operating Officer Jeffrey Mezger will succeed Karatz as CEO.

KBH $44.72 +2.05% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2006 12:36:39 PM

NH/NL data set for NYSE, NASDAQ and S&P 500 at this Link

Keene Little : 11/13/2006 12:32:23 PM

If the current leg up now, from today's sideways/down consolidation, can move to a new high, I've got a Fib projection now at ES 1393.75 where the 5th wave up will equal the 1st wave in the move up from Friday's low. That would also be a retest of Thursday's high.

Jane Fox : 11/13/2006 12:24:43 PM

I have been riding the fence today. Bullish because of the AD volume tajectory and VIX yet cautious because AD line was less than +500. I see the AD line has now fallen to 0 but the AD volume is still above 0 and climbing.

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2006 12:18:03 PM

NASDAQ NH/NL Ratio Chart at this Link

On 11/03/06 the NASDAQ's 5-day NH/NL ratio pulled back to a closinig reading of 63.7% (64.00 on chart) and has rebounded from that level of 5-day NH/NL ratio support area.

Shorter-term (5-day) bullish leadership as once again resumed.

It would currently take a 76.00% reading for the 10-day (X,O) to reverse back higher, which might come should the 5-day NH/NL ratio achieve 78.00% or more.

Keene Little : 11/13/2006 12:08:26 PM

On Friday I had recommended a short in the Euro (either a currency trade or the futures, either of which can easily be done in IB) based on the US dollar's chart looking like it was bottoming. Today the dollar bounced so if you're short the Euro I would pull my stop up just underneath Friday's low in the dollar (84.84) and high in the Euro (1.2902). Currently both are trading 85.32 (30-min delay) and 1.2807, resp. Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2006 12:05:18 PM

NYSE NH/NL Ratio Chart at this Link

f= five day

X,O= 10-day

3-box reversal method (it would currently take a closing 96.00% reading for the five-day NH/NL ratio to reverse back up. It would currently take a 90.00 reading for the 10-day NH/NL ratio to reverse lower.)

Keene Little : 11/13/2006 11:48:04 AM

NQ has clearly been more bullish today. Two equal legs down in its pullback is at 1769.25 which just got tagged.

Keene Little : 11/13/2006 11:46:37 AM

And if the 2nd leg down this morning goes to 162% of the 1st leg down, that gives us a downside target of 1387.75. Any drop below that level brings up the stronger possibility that we're going to pull back to the bottom of the recent consolidation since last week's high.

Keene Little : 11/13/2006 11:42:11 AM

If ES drops a little further, its uptrend line from Sept 11th, which it has been cycling around, is now at 1388.50 and could provide some support.

Keene Little : 11/13/2006 11:40:19 AM

ES now has two equal legs down in its pullback, at 1389.25, so if there's another leg up coming we should find support around here.

Keene Little : 11/13/2006 11:37:38 AM

Interestingly the VIX has been climbing for the past 30 minutes.

Keene Little : 11/13/2006 11:31:08 AM

I know what you mean Jane and it's why I'm not going to short this although I'm tempted (just because). But one of these days the indicators are going to fail the bulls just as they have been failing the bears for a long time now.

Jane Fox : 11/13/2006 11:27:45 AM

Keene MACD is saying today is not the day. This is your classic bullish MACD setup, price moving sideways as MACD falls. Link

Keene Little : 11/13/2006 11:26:52 AM

I'm still waiting for the day when one of these consolidations, which have been bullish for so long now, will fail to the downside. That would catch a lot of traders leaning the wrong way, fully expecting another rally, and the downside flush could be swift as a result. In other words if you're buying these consolidations, be careful of that possibility. This market is vulnerable.

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2006 11:21:24 AM

11:05 Internals found at this Link

Tab Gilles : 11/13/2006 11:16:38 AM

Energy Select SPDR (XLE) One of the stock in my MM Open Position Portfolio has had a nice run since I recommended it back on Sept 21 at $51.50. Let's set a trailing stop using the 20-ema. Link

Keene Little : 11/13/2006 11:14:03 AM

This is the kind of pattern I'm thinking might play out. If ES finds resistance near 1393, at the top of a bull flag consolidation from last week's high, it would mean another leg down but that would set up a rally to new highs. Playing with some Fibs I get a projection to near ES 1405 for an ultimate high. If it just continues higher from here then the upside target is slightly higher and could happen much sooner. Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2006 11:07:44 AM

11:05 Market Watch found at this Link

Keene Little : 11/13/2006 11:05:22 AM

It's amazing how we get these quick spikes up and then it just stops. But so far this little consolidation looks like all the others and suggests we'll see another move higher. Short term though I'm thinking a minor new high could be met with lots of bearish divergences and a new high could set up a scalp short play. ES 1393-1395 is resistance from previous highs so watch that area for the setup.

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2006 11:05:13 AM

Interesting little "bull traps" trades in PD. See the trade at $94 in September (triple top buy signal, then reversal back lower?) and once again.

Actually, the "bull trap" pattern in PnF charting is the triple top buy signal and quick reversal back lower. Some of the ones to really be on the alert for is when a MARKET, or SECTOR bullish % is in a "bear" phase, or overbought above 70%.

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2006 10:57:58 AM

Phelps Dodge (PD) $93.73 -3.07% Link ... Today's trade at $95 (even though it gapped lower and session high has been $94.39) triggers a triple bottom sell signal.

Dorsey/Wright's Metals Non Ferrous sector bullish % was "bull confirmed" at 68% at Friday's close. Achieved "bull confirmed" at 46% in early October. It would take a reversing lower reading of 62% for the sector to reverse lower to "bull correction" status.

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2006 10:50:03 AM

December Copper (hg06z) $3.10 (unch) ... QCharts' WEEKLY Pivot Levels are ... $2.86, $2.98, Piv= $3.19, $3.31, $3.52.

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2006 10:45:06 AM

December Copper (hg06z) Daily interval bar chart I've shown in prior sessions at this Link ... Pink retracement is conventional high/low, while blue is attached to closes of same high/low.

I would expect shorts to be covering and provide a bounce. BLUE retracement of $3.376 should be a formidable level of closing resistance.

Keene Little : 11/13/2006 10:45:03 AM

So far it's looking like just a small consolidation that will lead to another push higher. That's when we might see ES 1393 become resistance and start a larger pullback.

Jane Fox : 11/13/2006 10:35:42 AM

It feels like the bulls are taking a rest until they stage their next attack. Rally then slow down rally then slow down.

Jane Fox : 11/13/2006 10:32:06 AM

Even though AD line is only +447 you can't ignore the tajectory of the AD volume and it continues to make new daily highs as I type. Link

Keene Little : 11/13/2006 10:26:49 AM

Watch for a minor new high with bearish divergences to indicate we're probably ready for a larger consolidation/pullback.

Keene Little : 11/13/2006 10:25:12 AM

If we're in a consolidation pattern from last week's high then we could be due for another pullback to the recent lows before setting up another rally leg. So the consolidation so far looks bullish whether it's directly from here (we're due at least a short term consolidation/pullback first) or after a deeper pullback.

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2006 10:24:02 AM

December Copper (hg06z) PnF chart and $0.04-box size at this Link ... did see trade at $3.04 with morning low of $3.02.

Trend is still longer-term bullish ($2.96), but overhead supply does look to be building at/above $3.36.

Should the bullish support trend get broken, the bearish resistance trend would be established (45-degree angle down) starting at $3.60, just above the mid-October relative high.

Jane Fox : 11/13/2006 10:20:01 AM

Do you think this could be just a tad overdone. Link

Jane Fox : 11/13/2006 10:18:55 AM

As long as the internals look like this you have no reason to be short. Link

Jane Fox : 11/13/2006 10:14:07 AM

Looks like this may be a push higher slow down, push higher slow down kind of day.

Keene Little : 11/13/2006 10:13:44 AM

If this leg up is just a part of a larger consolidation since last Tuesday's high then we should watch for a reversal at recent highs. But NQ has already rallied higher so it's a tough call. ES 1393 could be resistance to watch for a pullback.

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2006 10:13:33 AM

Friday's Copper Action ... Reuters Story Link

Jane Fox : 11/13/2006 10:12:50 AM

Here is our next wave of buying.

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2006 10:07:16 AM

December Copper (hg06z) $3.06 -1.29% ... 4.5-month low and testing its rising 200-day SMA ($3.04)

Jane Fox : 11/13/2006 10:04:29 AM

So far this is looking like a get long and stay long kind of day but the level of the AD volume and AD line should be much higher. Oh am I just nit picking.

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2006 10:02:40 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 11/13/2006 10:02:26 AM

Even with this tajectory I still don;t like the feel of this rally. Link

Jane Fox : 11/13/2006 10:00:47 AM

BTW TRIn is falling as well.

Jane Fox : 11/13/2006 10:00:28 AM

We now have our classic bullish setup with AD volume climbing and VIX falling. Don't try shorting here folks.

Keene Little : 11/13/2006 9:58:48 AM

There's nothing bearish about this spike up. Short term overbought but no bearish divergences to suggest the ramp up is complete.

Jane Fox : 11/13/2006 9:56:49 AM

TICKS +800 and the buyers are alive and doing just fine.

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2006 9:56:08 AM

Prior 3 Weekly Pivot Matrix found at this Link

Keene Little : 11/13/2006 9:54:42 AM

A 62% retracement of the decline from last Thursday's high is at ES 1388.25. I've got an internal Fib projection now pointing at 1388.75 for a potential high for this bounce off Friday's low (if that's all it's going to be). The broken uptrend line from Sept 11th is at 1388.

Jane Fox : 11/13/2006 9:53:51 AM

Ad volume climbing but below 0 does not make me too bullish buuuutttt VIX is making new daily lows and that is bullish.

Jane Fox : 11/13/2006 9:46:01 AM

TRIN is 0.97 and within its PDR so it is neutral and not talking however, the VIX is falling telling me the bulls have the upper hand here.

Jane Fox : 11/13/2006 9:42:51 AM

Ad line -337 and AD volume below 0 but climbing. No direction yet.

Keene Little : 11/13/2006 9:42:22 AM

One of these days I'm going to just close my eyes and buy the initial spike down and get the reversal. My luck it'll be a real sell instead of a head fake.

Jeff Bailey : 11/13/2006 9:40:35 AM

Weekly/Monthly Index Pivot Matrix found at this Link

Keene Little : 11/13/2006 9:33:13 AM

The spike down at the open is hard to trust. We've seen way too many times these initial moves be the false move.

Keene Little : 11/13/2006 9:22:06 AM

I don't see anything in the overnight action in futures to help give us some clues about direction. If we get an early push lower keep an eye on the DOW for support by its uptrend line at 12067 (cash). That would be about SPX 1377.

YM's uptrend line and a short term downtrend line along the lows on Thursday and Friday intersect near 12079 which is also a 62% retracement of the rally last Monday/Tuesday. ES's uptrend line is lower but 1379 would be equivalent to YM 12080.

If we get an early push to the upside instead then that's when I'll be watching ES 1387-1388 for potential resistance. I'm hoping we'll get a sense of direction for the week from today's price action.

Jane Fox : 11/13/2006 9:02:33 AM

The three commodities I follow all broke their respective PDLS during the overnight session. I think YG had a bad tick overnight.

Tbonds remain bullish and I think the next test of yearly highs will break through. Link

Jane Fox : 11/13/2006 8:58:01 AM

Good morning everyone. Equity markets overnight were quiet with both ES and YM tagging their respective PDHs but neither having enough gun powder to break through. ER and NQ both did break their PDHs but not by much and have retreated back to their respective PDRs. Link

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