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Tab Gilles : 11/15/2006 12:41:28 AM

Open Positions Portfolio & Stock Watch List Link



$NASI Link

Profunds Ultra Short OTC (USPIX) & UltraShort Small Cap (UCPIX) Link Link

Energy Select (XLE) Link

Keene Little : 11/14/2006 11:10:20 PM

Wednesday's pivot tables: Link and Link

OI Technical Staff : 11/14/2006 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 11/14/2006 6:56:56 PM

India's RBI Reddy Concerned By Property Price Rise

DJ- Reserve Bank of India Governor Y.V. Reddy has expressed concern about the rate at which property prices are increasing in his country, The Financial Times reported on its Web site Tuesday evening.

"We don't take a view as to whether there's a bubble, but there is slight discomfort that asset prices have been moving too fast," the FT quoted him as saying.

Reddy said the RBI was monitoring property loans bank-by-bank and branch-by-branch, and making direct contact with those deemed to be lending too aggressively, according to the FT. "On the whole, my assessment is that our warnings would have had some impact and given the exposure of the banks, I would not expect damage to our banking system in a systemic sense, assuming there is a localized bubble that bursts," he said.

Jeff Bailey : 11/14/2006 6:49:30 PM

DELL Link ... just above its 200-day SMA.

DAR Link ... just below its 200-day SMA

Jeff Bailey : 11/14/2006 6:46:09 PM

Michael Dell Cuts Darling Intl (AMEX:DAR) Stake to 5.3M vs. 7.2M Shares

Jeff Bailey : 11/14/2006 6:32:25 PM

Soros Fund

Reports No YHOO Link Holding as of 09/30/06

Reports holding 126,000 shares MCD Link

Reports holding 326,000 shares TGT Link as of 09/30/06

Cuts MSFT Link stake to 35,625 vs. 126,350

Holding 5,360 shares GOOG Link

New stake in CMG Link of 238,200

Ups stake in BRCD Link to 386,600

Holding 60,000 shares of BKS Link

Not holding ABT Link as of 09/30/06

Jeff Bailey : 11/14/2006 6:06:05 PM

Blue Dolphin Energy (BDCO) $4.04 +3.32% Link ... swims lower to $3.60 on headline numbers.

Earnings Press Release Link

No analysts covering the stock for a consensus.

Jeff Bailey : 11/14/2006 6:00:27 PM

Trader Chatter: ... US Nat. Gas: Fund Buying Drives NYMEX Gas Higher

DJ- Natural gas futures extended gains for the second day in a row but closed just shy of a price level indicating the market is not ready for a sustained price increase amid mild temperatures and high levels of gas in storage, traders said Tuesday.

Natural gas for December delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange settled 8.3 cents higher Monday at $7.97 a million British thermal units, just under the $8.00/MMBtu.

The market rallied Tuesday on funds buying the December contract in an attempt to support long market positions. Adding to the rally were traders who bought contracts to cover short positions, a trader said.

The upward shift in prices cannot be sustained and the market still has not closed above $8.00/MMBtu, a price indicating that higher prices are here to stay, a trader said. The market hit a high of $8.22/MMBtu in intraday floor trading Tuesday.

"Every day they take it up and it never holds near highs," the trader said. "This is a low demand period. The price can't be sustained."

Natural gas prices rise in winter on the need for gas as a heating fuel for some 60% of homes across the U.S. Generally, gas prices rise when temperatures drop and remain low and force consistent heating demand.

"We're a long way from the core part of winter," said a trader. "The fundamentals are not supportive. We're too long from too high of an average price."

The market is likely to drop steeply about $1.00 or $1.50 with no sustained demand for gas to heat homes, the trader said.

In the meantime, forecasts for colder weather are not predicted until the end of November when temperatures are expected to reach into the 30s in large cities on the East Coast. Winter forecasts are mixed with some meteorologists calling for below-normal temperatures and others calling for above normal.

This has not stopped speculative traders from trying to "maintain a bullish aura" around the market, said Tim Evans, an energy analyst with Citigroup in New York.

Evans said the current price of gas is "expensive."

"Traders are guessing at the winter climate," he said. "Even if this is the second-warmest winter it's not going to support prices. It's not going to help us erode the storage surplus."

Current gas in U.S. storage is at 3.445 trillion cubic feet, nearly 8% over the five-year average.

In addition, with warm weather last week, analysts are expecting another build in storage for the week ended Nov. 10. The U.S. Energy Information Administration releases a report showing the amount of gas in storage on Thursday at 10:30 a.m. EST.

"To some extent it's nice to try and push the price higher now because after Thursday there might not be an opportunity to push price over $8.00," Evans said.

Jeff Bailey : 11/14/2006 5:51:06 PM

CBOE Index Put-Call Ratio Tuesday/Monday comparison) at this Link

VIX is S&P 500, VXO is narrower S&P 100.

Jeff Bailey : 11/14/2006 5:47:04 PM

Wow ... check out that VXO 10.89 -1.08% action in the last 5 minutes.

Jeff Bailey : 11/14/2006 5:36:43 PM

Most actives today were ... EMC (convertible), QQQQ, SPY, INTC and IWM.

Jeff Bailey : 11/14/2006 5:36:38 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Buyers turned the NASDAQ's A/D line inside out didn't they? 3-days left until November expiration.

Jeff Bailey : 11/14/2006 5:12:05 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/14/2006 4:57:50 PM

La-Z-Boy (LZB) $13.19 +5.09% Link ... Flat on headline numbers.

Earnings Press Release Link

Consensus was $0.02/share on Revenue of $433.63M

Jeff Bailey : 11/14/2006 4:48:25 PM

Back in the day, BORL was widely followed by analysts. Today, just 2 covering the stock.

Jeff Bailey : 11/14/2006 4:47:24 PM

Borland Software (BORL ... Earnings Press Release Link

Consensus was for a loss of $0.07/share on Revenue of $75.79M

Jeff Bailey : 11/14/2006 4:44:22 PM

Borland Software (BORL) $5.43 +1.30% Link ... ticks higher at $5.67 on headline numbers.

Jeff Bailey : 11/14/2006 4:42:30 PM

Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) ... Earnings Press Release Link

Consensus was for $1.10/share on Revenue of $853.84M

Jeff Bailey : 11/14/2006 4:40:40 PM

Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) $76.61 +3.01% Link ... called lower at $73.89 on headline numbers.

Jeff Bailey : 11/14/2006 4:35:18 PM

Analog Devices (ADI) ... Earnings Press Release Link

Consensus was $0.40/share on Revenue of $646.16M

Jeff Bailey : 11/14/2006 4:32:08 PM

Analog Devices (ADI) $33.03 +2.57% Link ... jumps to $35.10 extended on headline numbers.

Jeff Bailey : 11/14/2006 4:29:26 PM

Analyst Sees US Ethanol Production Up 50% in 5 Years

DJ- U.S. ethanol production will probably increase by at least 50% within the next five years to 7.5 billion gallons, a senior international analyst said Tuesday.

John Cropley, senior economist with U.K.-based LMC International Ltd., told Dow Jones Newswires that ethanol capacity in the U.S. had in recent years increased to about 5 billion gallons at present.

Production capacity costs about $1 to $1.50 per gallon, "and in the last few years there have been added over 2 billion gallons of new capacity in the U.S., so we're talking about $3 billion in investment," Cropley said.

He said the official U.S. target is to see renewable fuels - mostly corn-based ethanol - capacity at least 7.5 billion gallons by 2012, but many people in the market believe that's conservative and that the target will be reached much sooner.

Cropley also said that about 20% of current U.S. corn production is directed toward the ethanol industry, and based on the current trends for ethanol growth, at least 50% more corn will be needed for the fuel in the next five years.

Jeff Bailey : 11/14/2006 4:14:16 PM

Hooper Holmes Q3 Losses $0.63/share vs. $0.04/share

AMEX:HH $3.38 +2.73% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/14/2006 4:10:03 PM


DJ- Investors now can search through annual and quarterly reports, registration statements, and other documents filed over the past four years by typing in key words and limiting their search to a particular date range.

Keene Little : 11/14/2006 4:06:10 PM

Correction to my previous post. I should have stated that the Fib projection for ER at just under 804 is based on the 2nd leg up (wave-C from the November 9th low) being 162% of the 1st leg up (not equality as I misstated in my post).

Jeff Bailey : 11/14/2006 4:05:13 PM

Good Gravy! Stock was trading $75 last time I looked (earlier this month) Link

Now THAT'S a bullish triangle!

Jeff Bailey : 11/14/2006 4:03:22 PM


DJ- Exchange wins SEC approval to list and trade two series of Wachovia securities, with the returns linked to the performance of an equally weighted commodities basket of WTI crude oil, natural gas, copper, aluminum and gold.

Jeff Bailey : 11/14/2006 4:02:00 PM


DJ- Chair of FDIC acknowledges diverse viewpoints that weigh in as agency mulls whether to allow commercial companies to hold banking charters. Wal-Mart and Home Depot applied for industrial loan charters. Target and Harley Davidson have them.

Keene Little : 11/14/2006 4:01:52 PM

Last week I had speculated about a potential inverse H&S pattern on the 60-min chart for ER. It has decisively broken above the neckline and the price objective based on this pattern is just above 802. A Fib projection based on two equal legs up from November 2nd is just under 804 so there's good correlation for a potential high in the 802-804 area. The timing for a market high during this opex week is looking better and better. Link

Keene Little : 11/14/2006 3:46:34 PM

I wouldn't be a bit surprised to learn some day that today's rally had as much to do with the KBR IPO as anything else. With a few of the mega-banks having a big piece of the pie for this IPO, and their ability to shove the market around at will, spiking the market higher will only help their bottom line with this IPO. More manipulation to help themselves. Greed at its best (worst).

Jeff Bailey : 11/14/2006 3:36:54 PM

UK / KBR (update)DJ- The pricing of Halliburton Co.'s (HAL) KBR Inc. unit's initial public offering was delayed by one day Tuesday as the company revealed that the United Kingdom has asked it to withdraw the IPO or risk losing its interest in a dockyard venture there.

KBR, which was initially scheduled to price Tuesday night for trading Wednesday, is now slated to price Wednesday for Thursday trading, say underwriters.

The delay is customary after an amendment is filed to an IPO prospectus with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission; in KBR's case, that amended prospectus revealed that the United Kingdom's Ministry of Defence on Monday asked the Halliburton unit to withdraw its pending initial public offering so that it could perform a financial analysis on the standalone unit.

The U.K. told KBR that if it goes forward with the IPO without satisfying the ministry's concerns, the ministry would have "little option but to take steps to cause the MoD to use its power to safeguard the essential security interests of the United Kingdom with respect to the Devonport Royal Dockyard," according to Tuesday's filing.

A spokeswoman for Halliburton didn't immediately return a phone call seeking comment.

KBR is the majority owner of Devonport Management Ltd., which owns and operates Western Europe's largest naval dockyard complex in Plymouth, England. Its shipyard operations provide nuclear submarine refueling and surface vessel maintenance for the defense ministry there.

KBR currently owns 51% of the Devonport joint venture. Balfour Beatty PLC and Weir Group PLC own the remaining interests. The defense ministry has the right at any time to assume control of the dockyard and to dispose of KBR's stake at fair value if it feels it's in the security interests of the U.K. to do so, KBR said in its prospectus.

KBR said the loss of the company's interest in the dockyard could have a material adverse effect on its future prospects, results of operations and cash flow.

IPO analysts said Tuesday they were uncertain what effect the U.K.'s demands would have on the pricing of the deal, which aims to sell 27.84 million shares at $15 to $17 a share.

The fact that KBR chose to file an updated prospectus with the new warning, rather than withdraw the offering, indicates that the company is determined to go ahead with the IPO despite the U.K.'s concerns; the offering prior to the amended filing also appeared to be attracting strong investor interest.

KBR previously disclosed in its IPO prospectus that the ministry had expressed concern that the separation of KBR from Halliburton may not suit the ministry's security interests and that it wanted to assess the governance arrangements at the Plymouth dockyard to ensure Devonport Management Ltd. has sufficient freedom to act in the essential interests of the ministry.

Jeff Bailey : 11/14/2006 3:33:24 PM

Russell 2000 Index (RUT.X) 780.86 +1.09% .. set to test its all-time closing high of 781.83 from 05/05/06.

Jane Fox : 11/14/2006 3:32:08 PM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Nymex on Tuesday increased the estimated price range of its initial public offering by 10% and added 500,000 more shares as investors line up for the commodities bourse.

Nymex Holdings Inc. (NMX) said it'll offer 6.5 million shares at $54-$57 a share, richer than its earlier terms of 6 million shares at $48-$52 a share.

Under the new terms, the corporate holding company for the New York Mercantile Exchange will raise about $361 million in its IPO based on the midpoint of its new range, up from its earlier purse of $300 million.

The New York Mercantile Exchange's IPO is "massively oversubscribed," according to Scott Sweet, managing director of IPO Boutique.

"Deals like this come rarely in a given year," said Sweet, who reiterated his top rating of 5 on the IPO.

Nymex will have to generate an opening pop of more than 100% to take the cake as the biggest IPO opener of the year.

Jeff Bailey : 11/14/2006 3:28:03 PM

UK Asks Halliburton's KBR to Withdraw IPO

HAL $32.07 +0.25% Link ...

Keene Little : 11/14/2006 3:23:07 PM

Here's an update to NQ's ascending wedge (if that's what we have here). Price has stabbed above the pattern so bulls will not want to see price fall back inside (below 1788) otherwise that would be a sell signal. MACD is showing bearish divergences at the new highs. Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/14/2006 3:13:40 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 11/14/2006 3:12:55 PM

This move at least clears up the EW pattern a little. We are obviously finished with the pullback from the November 7th high (3-wave a-b-c pullback) and now we should get a 5-wave move up to finish the rally. This leg up should be the 3rd wave so we'll be due a 4th wave pullback, perhaps tomorrow, followed by a final 5th wave up. The upside Fib target is now ES 1406.75. Link

Keene Little : 11/14/2006 3:04:04 PM

The VIX is nosediving to its lows last seen in 2005. No fear. The bullish divergences continue on the daily chart. Payback is not far away but probably not until at least after opex week is finished.

Jeff Bailey : 11/14/2006 3:03:20 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 11/14/2006 3:01:58 PM

What the Sam Hill is going on today!

Jeff Bailey : 11/14/2006 2:59:18 PM

TRIN 0.96 ... slips below 1.00 and sits at DAILY Pivot. Trouble for shorts.

Jeff Bailey : 11/14/2006 2:57:54 PM

SFB-KI 16,350 trade all market makers. Low/High $0.30/$0.91.

Jeff Bailey : 11/14/2006 2:55:03 PM

I've got the SPY Nov. $139 Calls (SFB-KI) most active at 10,014 (CBOE only) with OI as of last night at 32,528

Jeff Bailey : 11/14/2006 2:52:57 PM

VIX 10.63 -2.11% ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/14/2006 2:52:35 PM

Somebody coughed up a fur ball in the options pits.

Keene Little : 11/14/2006 2:51:54 PM

It's now looking like the Boyz and their trading teams did some call buying at this morning's spike down, which was of course engineered by them as well. My sneaking feelings about that turned out to be correct. Too bad I didn't trade those feelings. I bought the bottom but reversed short way too early.

Jane Fox : 11/14/2006 2:49:24 PM

Don't even think about shorting. Link

Jane Fox : 11/14/2006 2:48:22 PM

What the heck has just happened we are going straight up! Wow!

Keene Little : 11/14/2006 2:48:08 PM

And then again, it might not.

Keene Little : 11/14/2006 2:47:49 PM

With a move to new daily highs now, the top of a potential parallel up-channel for price action off Friday's low is at ES 1396.25 which might offer resistance.

Keene Little : 11/14/2006 2:45:08 PM

I take back what I said about normal ebb and flow of buying and selling. This looks like another one of those manufactured buying spikes.

Jeff Bailey : 11/14/2006 2:42:40 PM

Bullish swing trade long alert ... for shares of Fannie Mae (FNM) $59.23 -0.47% here, stop $58.50, target $62.25

Jeff Bailey : 11/14/2006 2:41:23 PM

S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) 399.43 -0.06% ... back to test its WEEKLY Pivot.

Keene Little : 11/14/2006 2:38:32 PM

Popped me out of my short. Over to the sidelines and watch for a while now.

Jeff Bailey : 11/14/2006 2:37:57 PM

President Bush tells auto CEOs that Govt. Is Addressing Health Care Costs; Will bring up fair trade at APEC summit

Keene Little : 11/14/2006 2:34:23 PM

The question here, after this consolidation during the last hour, is whether the consolidation is bullish or if it instead looks like a rolling top on the 5-min chart. I guess it depends on your bias. I'm still short so I think it looks like a rolling top, or is that hope creeping in there? I just hope I don't get stopped out on a quick spike up to be followed by a strong drop. I might jump back in short on a drop through 1387.50 if that happens but not sure. Read and react I guess. I don't like chasing choppy markets.

Jeff Bailey : 11/14/2006 2:29:27 PM


DJ- Chairman and CEO Lloyd Blankfein sees opportunities to expand its investment-banking activities from large companies to those in the middle market.

GS $188.18 +0.23% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/14/2006 2:25:27 PM

Biotech Index (BTK.X) 757.98 -0.72% Link ...

Keene Little : 11/14/2006 2:24:30 PM

Even though we've had a bit of a price range today it seems to me that price action is a lot tamer than previous opex weeks. Just maybe we might get back to some more normal ebb and flow of buying and selling. Wouldn't that be nice?

Jeff Bailey : 11/14/2006 2:24:29 PM


DJ- Deputy commissioner proposes boosting the fees companies pay the agency to review their drugs to hire additional staff members, who could monitor patients' responses to the drugs after they're approved and place restrictions if needed.

Jeff Bailey : 11/14/2006 2:23:27 PM

Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) $94.90 +7.23% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/14/2006 2:21:49 PM


DJ- Deutsche Boerse is close to abandoning its effort to merge with Euronext, says supervisory board members. Frankfurt Stock Exchange Walter Allwicher says their proposal for Euronext stands.

Jeff Bailey : 11/14/2006 2:20:08 PM


DJ- Underwriters for New York Mercantile Exchange increase the expected price range for the company's proposed initial public offering from $48 and $52 a share to $54 to $57 a share. Offering size is also increased to 6.5 million shares.

Jeff Bailey : 11/14/2006 2:18:54 PM


DJ- Internet advertising reaches a new high of $4.2 billion in the 3Q, up 2% on 2Q and marking the eighth consecutive quarter of growth, according to a new study. Online advertising revenue is 33% higher than a year ago.

Keene Little : 11/14/2006 2:18:45 PM

Pressing higher again and my stop was missed by a tick (but maybe not for long). The market has that magical support under it still. Bad news is good news, or so they'll want us to believe. We're in the middle of a very choppy price range and it's obvioulsy whacking both sides so it could be best to just wait for some clarity before trying to trade this.

If stopped out I'll wait for ES to drop below 1387.50 before thinking about trying another short play. I still like that downside target near 1378 but not if it proceeds directly higher from here.

Jane Fox : 11/14/2006 2:11:11 PM

TICKS +800

Keene Little : 11/14/2006 1:49:07 PM

YM has retraced 62% of this morning's decline at 12175.

Jane Fox : 11/14/2006 1:45:39 PM

* NYSE advancers outnumber decliners 19 to 13
* Nasdaq decliners outnumber advancers 15 to 13

Keene Little : 11/14/2006 1:42:04 PM

Welcome to the chop zone. The timing still looks good for a leg down to the bottom of ES's big bull flag pattern--the bottom of the pattern intersects its uptrend line from July about mid day tomorrow at 1378. I don't know if that's what will play out but that's the reason I'm trying a short here. I'm just hoping to survive the chop at this point. Link

Jane Fox : 11/14/2006 1:40:47 PM

These are all bullish. Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/14/2006 1:38:33 PM

Disk Drive Index (DDX.X) 161.42 +1.67% Link ... creeps to highs for the month of November.

Jane Fox : 11/14/2006 1:38:04 PM

Here come the buyers. TICKS +800

Keene Little : 11/14/2006 1:31:31 PM

I see a potential upside Fib target for this move just under 1390 so I've moved my stop up a point to 1390.50. It's a hard stop, no questions asked, get out of Dodge if it's hit.

Jeff Bailey : 11/14/2006 1:22:36 PM

BIIIIIG wedge forming in shares of Nokia (NOK) $19.83 +0.40% ...

Keene Little : 11/14/2006 1:15:47 PM

If this is going to roll back over here it's certainly taking its own sweet time doing it.

Jeff Bailey : 11/14/2006 1:13:25 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/14/2006 1:04:51 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Keene Little : 11/14/2006 12:58:01 PM

ES 1387.50 tagged. Now let's see if it turns back down. Stop at 1389.50 if you're trying it.

Jeff Bailey : 11/14/2006 12:59:02 PM

Corning (GLW) $21.27 +2.80% Link ... comes to life.

Might get some momentum going from MACD juuuust above Signal Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/14/2006 12:36:27 PM

May 16, 2000 FOMC Minutes (raised 50bp to 6.5%) which many, including myself, thought was a mistake. LABOR trends were a major focus of the Fed. Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/14/2006 12:28:45 PM

Fed's Poole: Uncertain Labor Growth Complicating Policy

DJ- The U.S. economy faces considerable uncertainty over labor force participation rates, which will complicate the task of conducting monetary policy and increase the need for productivity rates to stay strong, a top Federal Reserve official said Tuesday.

"Uncertainty over trend labor force growth will complicate the Fed's job next year," Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President William Poole said in comments prepared for delivery before the Chartered Financial Analysts Society of Philadelphia, in Wilmington, Del.

"If actual employment growth slows, we will have to make the judgment as to whether the slowing is consistent with a slowing of trend labor force growth or is a sign of impending recession," Poole said.

"If employment growth next year remains only modestly below this year's average pace of about 150,000 per month" the path could be different, Poole said. "We will have to make the judgment as to whether this growth is outrunning available labor, which would be the case if we accept the low estimate of trend labor force growth, or whether one of the higher estimates of trend labor force growth is being realized."

Poole is not currently a voting member of the interest rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee, which is expected to maintain the current stance of monetary policy for some time as policy-makers expect inflation to moderate. He did not address near-term economic conditions in his speech, which was largely centered on the longer term implications of big changes in the labor force participation rates, a situation with significant implications for the long-term growth outlook.

Keene Little : 11/14/2006 12:24:06 PM

The small pullback we've been getting for the past hour could lead to another leg up in the bounce off this morning's low. If we get two equal legs up today that gives us an upside target of ES 1387.50. From there, two equal legs down from this morning's high gives us a downside target of 1377.75, magically close to the 1378 level I cited earlier as the bottom of the wide bull flag pattern.

This is all specualation at the moment since we're just chopping around but I'd look at that 1387.50 (assuming we get there) for an opportunity to get short and then look to reverse long at 1378.

Jeff Bailey : 11/14/2006 12:19:56 PM

Red Hat (RHAT) $16.82 -4.05% Link ... sitting on its WEEKLY S1 and 200-week SMA.

Jeff Bailey : 11/14/2006 12:09:42 PM

IAEA: Traces Of Enriched Uranium In Iran Waste Facility

DJ- International Atomic Energy Agency experts have found unexplained plutonium and enriched uranium traces in a nuclear waste facility in Iran and have asked Tehran for an explanation, an IAEA report said Tuesday.

The report, prepared for next week's meeting of the 35-nation IAEA, also faulted Tehran for not cooperating with the agency's attempts to investigate suspicious aspects of Iran's nuclear program that have lead to fears it might be interested in developing nuclear arms. As well, the four-page report made available to The Associated Press confirmed that Iran continues uranium enrichment experiments in defiance of the U.N. Security Council.

Jeff Bailey : 11/14/2006 12:05:56 PM

Dorsey/Wright's Distribution Curve for Protection/Safety stocks found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/14/2006 12:03:18 PM

Wondering if that has anything to do with recent Rumsfeld news? Democrats taking control of House and Senate?

Jeff Bailey : 11/14/2006 12:00:48 PM

Yesterday's action did see Dorsey/Wright's PROTection Safety Equip reverse back to "bear confirmed" from "bull alert" status at 40% (currently 38.24%). Would now take a higher 48% reading to achieve "bull confirmed" status.

Jeff Bailey : 11/14/2006 11:57:19 AM

Lam Research (LRCX) $53.58 +0.61% Link ... tough to assess reward longer-term as stock has achieved its bullish vertical count.

Keene Little : 11/14/2006 11:57:16 AM

The small bounce off this morning's low has now become a bigger bounce (in time if not price) and it's beginning to look less like a small 4th wave correction and more like a b-wave in the move down from this morning's high. What that suggests to me is that, while the upward correction could continue a little higher it's looking like we'll get another leg down once this bounce is finished.

That makes it a stronger likelihood that we'll see ES drop down to the bottom of the pattern I've been showing (last update 10:05 AM) near 1378. That would mean a break of the DOW's uptrend line which could bring in some quick selling. Then the Boyz can jam it with some buy programs to achieve new highs and make their big bucks (and further frustrate the bears). So that's my guess what will happen. Now for the market to tell me whether I've been smoking some of that funny stuff.

Jeff Bailey : 11/14/2006 11:55:13 AM

Applied Materials (AMAT) $18.26 +1.16% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/14/2006 11:40:59 AM

Both the QQQQ and SMH pegged their WEEKLY R1 to the penny this morning.

SPY missed its WEEKLY Pivot by a penny.

Has me thinking some Op-Ex gyrations.

Throw in the economic and political news and we've got a wild one on our hands.

Tab Gilles : 11/14/2006 11:24:42 AM

OKAY Jeff...:)

Jeff Bailey : 11/14/2006 11:22:41 AM

Sounds like we shop at the same Home Depot Tab.

Send a complaint on HD's website. They will send you a $10.00 coupon.

Tab Gilles : 11/14/2006 11:21:22 AM

Home Depot missed expectations on 3Q.

I was just shopping at my local HD and noticed less orange aprons and difficulty in getting help. Where as in the past I was approached with employees eager to help me. I asked, why was there a lack of help...did everyone quit? The Home Depot employee told me that his store and other stores had reduced hours. Telling part-time workers to stay home until further notice. A sure sign of a financial problem at the home improvement chain. I asked if sales had declined and he told me at his store they had, but not by much. His opinion was more customers were leaving because there wasn't anyone to give customer service.

Wonder if Bob Nardelli is earnings all those bonus dollars as the stock declines? Link

Lowe's is winning... Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/14/2006 11:16:21 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Jane Fox : 11/14/2006 11:13:36 AM

BOSTON (MarketWatch) -- D.R. Horton Inc. said Tuesday that fourth-quarter profit fell 51% from a year earlier as the largest U.S. residential builder took charges for land options it decided not to purchase and for inventory impairments.

However, the Ft. Worth, Texas-based company's revenue and per-share profit handily topped consensus expectations. The stock gained 7% to $23.94 in late-morning dealings, helped by falling Treasury yields.

The company (DHI) said net income fell to $277.7 million, or 88 cents a share, in the fourth quarter, which ended Sept. 30, down from the $563.8 million, or $1.77 a share, earned in the year-ago period.

The latest quarter included charges of $142 million, or 28 cents a share, covering inventory impairments as well as $57.2 million, or 11 cents a share, covering write-offs of deposits and pre-acquisition costs related to land-option contracts that the builder doesn't intend to pursue.

D.R. Horton said consolidated quarterly revenue fell to $4.8 billion from $5.02 billion.

Keene Little : 11/14/2006 11:06:11 AM

ES 1384-1385 is providing some support, not to mention the DOW's uptrend line, but so far it's looking like a small consolidation rather than a hard bounce off support. It looks like we'll get another move down and that's when I'd start looking for bullish divergences. After a small 5-wave move down today we'll be ready for at least a corrective bounce if not the start of a new leg up.

Jeff Bailey : 11/14/2006 11:03:41 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/14/2006 10:59:25 AM

U.S. Sen Reid Elected Senate Majority Leader

Jeff Bailey : 11/14/2006 10:56:45 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List at this Link

Keene Little : 11/14/2006 10:53:58 AM

The small bounce that we're getting now could lead to another move lower which would give us a 5-wave move down from this morning's high. We may not get it but if you went long here and get stopped out and we then get a new low accompanied with bullish divergences I'd try it again.

Jeff Bailey : 11/14/2006 10:47:41 AM

The WUE-AV have traded 710 contracts, low/high $1.80/$1.85

Keene Little : 11/14/2006 10:47:21 AM

The DOW has been chopping sideways/down since November 7th and has now slid over to its uptrend line from July. It looks like another bull flag so based on this it should be a great place to get long for another leg up. The big question of course is whether or not support will hold (or if we'll get a head fake break below it). It's a good place to test a long but realize the potential for the head fake move to the downside. Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/14/2006 10:46:35 AM

I'm showing the EMC-LN having traded 309 contracts (all market makers) with low/high $0.80/$0.85

Jeff Bailey : 11/14/2006 10:45:20 AM

EMC Option Chain sorted by CBOE volume (options) at this Link (more later)

Jane Fox : 11/14/2006 10:44:12 AM

PDLs are coming into play as support today. Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/14/2006 10:36:09 AM

Traders/investors want to be careful with a stock when they see a convertible.

Some traders that DO NOT hold the convertible, will come in and short, looking for eventual dilution from the convertible, but without it (the convertible) they are NOT hedged on the short.

I've seen stocks rocket higher on a short squeeze, I've also seen the shorts get control, or "bad news" eventually come. Then, as the convertible matures, the HEDGED short converts at a significantly lower stock price.

A couple of years ago, ADI did a convertible which I had written up for an Ask the Analyst column. They did it at $90 if memory serves me correct. Stock was not the same for a couple of years.

Jane Fox : 11/14/2006 10:34:37 AM

Pretty clear as to who has the reins this morning. Link

Keene Little : 11/14/2006 10:32:46 AM

Why do I have this sneaking feeling that the Boyz are pushing this down, maybe even break some support levels, in order to load up on some really cheap November call options? Then all they'll have to do is light the fuse and watch this rocket higher, pocketing a few gazillion in the process.

Keene Little : 11/14/2006 10:30:09 AM

The DOW is now approaching its July uptrend line at 12082.

Jeff Bailey : 11/14/2006 10:28:10 AM

Keep an eye on that one (EMC) in coming weeks. Stock likely being shorted today as a hedge against the convertible (for those that bought the convertible). The 2011 and 2013 notes pay a rather low semiannual rate of 1.75%.

I'll have to read more, but this is why the stock is so heavily traded.

Jeff Bailey : 11/14/2006 10:25:45 AM

EMC Corp. (EMC) $12.65 +0.31% ... atop this morning's most active with 110.8 million traded. I see the company has priced $3.45 billion of convertible senior notes.

Story Link

Keene Little : 11/14/2006 10:22:46 AM

ES's 30-min 100/130-pma's are located at 1384-1385 so watch for potential support in this area. A Fib projection for this leg down, based on the corrective structure since yesterday morning's high, is at 1384.25.

Jane Fox : 11/14/2006 10:21:22 AM

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- December crude climbed 33 cents to $58.91 a barrel in early New York dealings after losing more than 4% in the last two trading sessions. Most analysts expect Wednesday's Energy Department data to reflect a rise in crude inventories, but a fall in distillate supplies. December natural gas was up 4.6 cents at $7.94 per million British thermal units.

Jeff Bailey : 11/14/2006 10:20:49 AM


DJ- Earnings rise to $230.6 million, or 48c a share, up from a year-ago profit of $155.3 million, which was affected by charges. Wall Street expected 46c a share. Sales rise 11% to $4.5 billion from $4.04 billion.

TJX $28.42 (unch) Link ...

Keene Little : 11/14/2006 10:20:36 AM

Looks like the stock market did a collective "Doh!" on this morning's economic news and decided it's not so good for equities. Really? What a shocker. But the pullback from yesterday morning's high looks very corrective and suggests we're not done making highs. I want to see if ES manages to pull back to the bottom of its pattern near 1378 (which should suck in some bear fuel) and then look to buy it. It would be a heck of a run to 1400 from there (if that's what we're going to see).

Jane Fox : 11/14/2006 10:18:43 AM

Careful bears the TRIN is falling and is now at 0.96 and is not confirming the bearishness this morning.

Jeff Bailey : 11/14/2006 10:18:21 AM


DJ- Office-products retailer earns $289.9 million, or 39c a share, as worldwide e-commerce sales climb 27% to $1.2 billion. Sales rise 12% to $4.76 billion. Excluding items, Staples earns 36c a share, matching Wall Street expectations.

SPLS $25.21 -3.26% Link ... Note: Stock has achieved its bullish vertical count of $27 twice now.

Jeff Bailey : 11/14/2006 10:15:57 AM


DJ- CBOE asks CFTC to deny petition, contending SEC is more appropriate regulatory agency to handle matter because CME's proposed credit event futures are more closely tied to options on a security, not options on futures.

Jeff Bailey : 11/14/2006 10:11:23 AM


DJ- U.S. chain store sales rise 0.3% in first two weeks of November compared with the previous month, according to Redbook Research. International Council of Shopping Centers-UBS Retail Chain Store Sales Index decreases by 0.8%.

Jeff Bailey : 11/14/2006 10:09:42 AM


DJ- Home-improvement retailer posts net income of $1.49 billion, or 73c a share. Operating income is flat at $2.47 billion, with 3Q sales up 11% at $23.1 billion. Analysts expected EPS of 75c on sales of $23.4 billion.

HD $36.20 -0.54% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/14/2006 10:08:21 AM


DJ- Net profit rises 12% to $2.65 billion, or 63c a share, aided by a penny gain on a favorable tax ruling. Revenue jumps 12% to $83.54 billion. Wal-Mart warns new pricing strategy may affect its bottom line in 4Q.

WMT $47.69 +2.95% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/14/2006 10:06:31 AM


DJ- Retail sales decrease for a second straight month during October by a seasonally adjusted 0.2%. Analysts expected a 0.4% decline. Excluding both autos and gasoline, all other retail sales increase 0.3% for a second straight month.

Jeff Bailey : 11/14/2006 10:05:53 AM


DJ- Producer price index for finished goods falls 1.6% last month, matching the record decline and beating expectations of a 0.6% drop, after decreasing 1.3% in September. Core rate, which excludes food and energy, falls 0.9%; analysts expected a 0.1% climb.

Keene Little : 11/14/2006 10:05:19 AM

This ES 60-min chart that I showed yesterday is still a distinct possibility. This morning's high tagged the top of the wide bull flag pattern. The low on Friday could have been it for the pullback and we'll proceed higher once the current pullback is finished or we could pull all the way back to the recent lows. Either way it's looking to me like we should see this market push higher before completing the larger upside pattern. Link

Jane Fox : 11/14/2006 10:03:47 AM

Keene you were right.

Jeff Bailey : 11/14/2006 10:03:09 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Keene Little : 11/14/2006 9:59:29 AM

Jane, I interpreted the economic report as bearish for equities. Retail sales still slowed down and the big slowdown in inflation (not to mention the long-inverted yield curve) is pointing to the stronger possibility of recession. This is bearish for equities. It's just a matter of someone taking a 2x4 to the stock market and catching its attention.

Jane Fox : 11/14/2006 9:58:48 AM

See how the VIX and AD volume are moving in opposite directions. This is the way it is supposed to work and is bearish folks. Link

Jane Fox : 11/14/2006 9:56:48 AM

Ok this is getting really interesting now. When was the last time you saw a strong economic report released and the market sell off.

Keene Little : 11/14/2006 9:55:27 AM

So much for this morning's gap up in equities. They're now close to closing their gaps so we'll see if they offer support for another push higher.

Jane Fox : 11/14/2006 9:52:09 AM

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- December gold rose $1.90 to $627.70 an ounce after losing a total of $11 in the past two sessions. The metal found support as the U.S. dollar declined on the back of a tamer-than-expected October wholesale inflation report. December silver was up 7.5 cents at $12.96 an ounce and December copper traded at $3.1025 a pound, up 2.75 cents. Metals shares were higher, with the CBOE Gold Index ($GOX : CBOE Gold Index News , chart, profile, more Last: 147.38+1.46+1.00% 9:51am 11/14/2006 Delayed quote dataAdd to portfolio Analyst Create alertInsider Discuss Financials Sponsored by: $GOX147.38, +1.46, +1.0%) up 0.6%.

Keene Little : 11/14/2006 9:50:25 AM

Keep an eye on this pattern for NQ. The techs have been relatively stronger lately but if the move higher is a catch-up move lacking in internal breadth then this ascending wedge would be indicating to us that this push higher is on its last legs, literally. The uptrend line from November 3rd is currently near 1763 and the top of the pattern is about 1785. Link

We could see this chop its way higher this week to finish it off. These patterns are typically filled with choppy moves so it'll be tough to trade. I'm hoping by the end of the week (or sooner) we'll see price topping out in this pattern which would be a good setup for a short play.

Jane Fox : 11/14/2006 9:46:04 AM

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) -- Shares of Wal-Mart Stores jumped in early trading Tuesday to lead the retail sector's main measure to positive terrain. The S&P Retail Index ($RLX) saw its strongest opening in more than a week, rising to 494.34. Shares of Wal-Mart (WMT) , a Dow component, trekked higher by 3.5% to $49.79 after turning in an 11% increase in third-quarter earnings.

Jane Fox : 11/14/2006 9:44:31 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- KBR Inc. is expected to price its initial public offering after the closing bell Tuesday for its stock market debut on Wednesday.

The unit of Halliburton (HAL) plans to offer 27.84 million shares at $15-$17 a share in a bid to raise about $445.4 million. KBR Inc. (KBR) , the corporate name for engineering and construction firm Kellogg, Brown & Root, will trade under the symbol "KBR" on the New York Stock Exchange.

Underwriters on the deal include Credit Suisse Securities, Goldman Sachs, UBS Securities, Citigroup Global Markets Inc, HSBC, Lehman Brothers and Merrill Lynch.

KBR traces its history to two businesses, the M.W. Kellogg Company, a pipe fabrication outfit founded in 1901, and Brown & Root, a Houston firm founded in 1919 that built the world's first offshore platform in 1947.

Halliburton bought Brown & Root in 1962 and Kellogg was acquired in 1998 through its merger with Dresser Industries.

Jane Fox : 11/14/2006 9:42:01 AM

WE have the VIX climbing along with the AD volume climbing. This is not the way it is suppposed to work.

Keene Little : 11/14/2006 9:41:24 AM

The 30-year bond made a new high this morning (above its November 1st high) but not the 10-year. After gapping down on November 2nd they've both now closed those gaps. The daily chart continues to suggest the bonds may be ready for a deeper pullback though--the bearish divergences against the November 1st high make today's high appear as a last stab at a high before turning back down.

Jane Fox : 11/14/2006 9:36:22 AM

OK AD line is now +1041 and little doubt as to who has the ball this morning.

Jane Fox : 11/14/2006 9:32:00 AM

TRIn at 1.04 and no VIX yet.

Jane Fox : 11/14/2006 9:31:34 AM

Interestinly the AD line is anemic +333 no +447 no +475. Maybe not so anemic.

Keene Little : 11/14/2006 9:26:40 AM

It looks like bonds recognize the slow down in the economy and inflation (not that the two are necessarily tied together). With retail sales down and inflation down the bond market is looking for an easing in the Fed's rate policy. For some reason the stock market thinks a slowing economy is a good thing since futures are up sharply as well.

The disconnect between bonds and the stock market continues where the bond market is predicting an economic slowdown and the stock market is predicting good times ahead. I think I know who will win that argument and it's just a matter of time before the stock market recognizes reality.

Tuesdays of opex week are sometimes volatile in that they can sometimes be reversal days. I have no idea if that will happen today but the early euphoria in the stock market (short covering anyway) may not last. But the bulls are still running and trampling warning flags so don't get in their way. Join them but be careful of a quick reversal of the herd lest you be trampled.

Jane Fox : 11/14/2006 9:06:51 AM

I fully expected to see Gold take a major hit because it is used as an inflation hedge and when inflation takes a hit you expect Gold would as well. I guess the rally in Gold was not an inflation hedge.

As per usual the two energy markets I follow, Crude and Natural Gas were not affected by the 8:30 PPI.

TBonds really liked the 8:30 data and, as I predicted, have made a new yearly high. Link

Jane Fox : 11/14/2006 9:01:41 AM

The markets really liked the 8:30 economic data but you have to wonder how many more buyers are out there to keep this train on the tracks. Link

Jane Fox : 11/14/2006 8:53:01 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Inflationary pressures eased in October as wholesale energy prices and prices for light trucks dropped.

The producer price index fell a sharp 1.6%, which matches a record low set in October 2001, the Labor Department reported Tuesday.

The decline in the PPI pushed the year-over-year rate on finished-goods prices to negative 1.6%, the first time it has been below zero since September 2002.

The core PPI, which excludes food and energy costs, fell 0.9%, the biggest drop since August 1993.

The weak numbers were a surprise. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch were expecting the index to fall by 0.5%, while core prices were expected to rise 0.1%.

It's the first back-to-back drop in the PPI since July 2004.

Over the past year, the core rate is up 0.6%.

Jane Fox : 11/14/2006 8:52:02 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - U.S. retail sales fell in October for the second month in a row, pushed lower by falling gasoline prices, the Commerce Department reported Tuesday.

Auto sales showed a surprising gain, while demand at most other stores was weak.

Retail sales fell 0.4% in October after sinking a downwardly revised 0.8% in September. Sales have risen in just two of the past six months. Retail sales are up 4.5% in the past 12 months.

Gasoline station sales fell 6% in October after an 11.1% drop in September, reflecting the sharp decline in pump prices. Excluding gasoline, retail sales rose 0.4%.

Motor vehicle sales rose 0.6% by dollar value, somewhat of a surprise given the 2.8% decline in unit sales reported earlier by the automakers. Excluding autos, retail sales dropped 0.4% after a 1.2% decline in September.

Sales excluding autos are up 3.1% in the past year.

Jane Fox : 11/14/2006 8:48:21 AM

Dateline WSJ - U.S. wholesale prices tumbled last month, suggesting that inflationary pressures are waning even more quickly than had been expected.

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