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Tab Gilles : 11/16/2006 12:41:26 AM

Open Positions Portfolio & Stock watch List Link

$NAHGH/$NALOW/$NDX/$NDXA200 weekly Link

$BPNDX Link

$NASI Link

Profunds UltraShort OTC (USPIX) & UltraShort SmallCap (UCPIX) Link Link

Energy Select SPDR (XLE) Link

Marc Eckelberry : 11/16/2006 12:15:22 AM

Private sector job creation in the present recession-recovery cycle is amongst the weakest recovery since World War II. In a nation of 300 million people, with a work force of 145 million, creating less than 1.2 million jobs per year for 5 years barely amounts to a drizzle. In simple math terms, job growth has been about 0.8% gains per year over that 5 year period. Link

Keene Little : 11/16/2006 12:10:57 AM

In the "how stretched is this rally?" category the SPX is considered stretched and ready for a correction when it reaches a level that is 6% away from its 200-dma. Today it is 7.4% above its 200-dma, a very rare occurrence.

I noticed today when reviewing a bunch of weekly charts that many look like the weekly SPX chart where price is at or near the top of a parallel up-channel for price action since 2004. This is the weekly chart for the COMP: Link

As you can see price has rallied up to the top of its channel and hit its Fib projection at 2452.43 (Wednesday's high was 2452.56) where the move up from July is equal to the first leg up in this channel from August 2004 to January 2005, so it could be considered a measured move that is complete. There are more and more pieces falling into place that tell me we're now really close to making a major high.

It's still possible, based on some short term patterns, that we'll pull back and then finish rallying into Thanksgiving but at this point I consider the long side to be very risky.

Keene Little : 11/15/2006 10:57:48 PM

Jeff, interesting article on hiring. However, I completely disagree on the premise that hiring is a leading indicator for an expected "soft landing". As has been shown consistently in the past, the employment picture is a lagging indicator. Typically the unemployment rate bottoms After a recession begins, as it did in 2001. When the market turns down and the economy slows (as it has already started doing) that's when companies start reporting less need for hiring. It'll happen again.

Keene Little : 11/15/2006 10:53:14 PM

Thursday's pivot tables: Link and Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/15/2006 10:33:13 PM

Here's a recent article on hiring trends Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/15/2006 10:29:30 PM

Was reading today's FOMC minutes ... check out MAN $73.89 +2.96% Link and ADO $16.60 +0.78% Link and KFY $23.60 +1.68% Link and RHI $38.60 +2.74% Link and MPS $15.36 +1.99% Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/15/2006 10:00:45 PM

Sectors whose bullish % charts changed by more than 2% Autos & Parts +2.1%, Protection/Safety +2.9%, Wall Street +4.9%, Waste Management +2.1%.

OI Technical Staff : 11/15/2006 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 11/15/2006 9:58:27 PM

LEISure's sector bullish % achieved "bull confirmed" status in today's trade.

Jeff Bailey : 11/15/2006 9:27:42 PM

Dorsey/Wright's NH/NL breakdown by sector at this Link

Please Note: I do not use Drosey/Wright's NH/NL measures when populating the intra-day, or closing internals. Data sources do differ. However, very good information here as to bullish/bearish leadership among sectors.

Jeff Bailey : 11/15/2006 9:11:10 PM

Applied Materials (AMAT) $18.65 +0.81% ... last tick in extended was $18.30. Extended session low/high was $18.09/$18.94

Jeff Bailey : 11/15/2006 8:57:51 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Today's 289 new highs at the NASDAQ surpasses the 220 found on 10/16/06 when the NASDAQ Comp closed 2,363.84.

While a rising tide tends to lift a lot of boats, I would note today's 54 new lows at the NASDAQ are nearly double the 23 found on 10/16/06.

4 and 5-lettered stocks that are trading at/near 52-week lows are out of favor, and may become tax loss sell candidates in year's end.

Jeff Bailey : 11/15/2006 8:38:06 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/15/2006 4:45:26 PM

AMAT $18.65 +0.81% ... $18.49 extended. Very calm ... Conference call begins.

Jeff Bailey : 11/15/2006 4:44:38 PM

AMAT earnings Press Release at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/15/2006 4:43:06 PM

Mid-point of upward regression channel right at AMAT's close.

Jeff Bailey : 11/15/2006 4:42:25 PM

AMAT's 61.8% retracement from 1/12/06 high close to recent 07/21/06 low close right in here at $18.50.

Jeff Bailey : 11/15/2006 4:40:23 PM

AMAT $18.50 extended ... still waiting ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/15/2006 4:39:35 PM

Planar Systems (PLNR) $12.00 -0.41% Link ... jumps to $12.50 on headline numbers.

Jeff Bailey : 11/15/2006 4:38:07 PM

Valero Port Arthur Refinery Mulls $800M Expansion- DJ Source

VLO $54.25 +2.31% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/15/2006 4:31:36 PM

AMAT $18.53 extended ... still waiting....

Jeff Bailey : 11/15/2006 4:30:34 PM

DJ Survey: 10-year Treasury Yield Seen Ending Year At 4.7%

Yield Curve Inversion To Moderate By Year End

Jeff Bailey : 11/15/2006 4:28:07 PM

AMAT ... WEEKLY Pivot Levels ... $16.60, $17.12, Piv= $17.55, $18.07, $18.50

Jeff Bailey : 11/15/2006 4:25:00 PM

AMAT ... $18.40 extended.

Jeff Bailey : 11/15/2006 4:24:44 PM

Applied Materials (AMAT) $18.65 +0.81% ... was quiet today. Earnings should be released shortly.

Keene Little : 11/15/2006 4:03:20 PM

The setup is there for a quick drop tomorrow out of the gates but again with this being opex week and apparently more money being pumped in to hold up the market it's risky business trying to short this market. If we do get a quick drop that's when I'll be looking for ES 1396.50 to offer some support for at least a bigger bounce back up. Choppy price action should be the order of the day.

Jeff Bailey : 11/15/2006 4:01:31 PM

Buy Program Premium ... SPY $140.07 : YM 12,296

Jeff Bailey : 11/15/2006 4:10:48 PM

Commercial Metals (CMC) $27.41 +0.29% Link ... not as "tight" of a bearish signal reversed. Low Pole warning has given shorts some time to cover.

Jeff Bailey : 11/15/2006 4:10:09 PM

Countrywide Financial (CFC) $40.48 +0.87% Link ... nice "tight" bearish signal reversed.

Keene Little : 11/15/2006 3:39:45 PM

If the corrective bounce has completed and we get another leg down now, look for downside targets where we'll have two equal legs down from today's high. That would currently be at YM 12257 and ES 1396.50. The way price is being held up I'm not sure we'll get much in the way of a downside move into the close but that's the current potential.

Jeff Bailey : 11/15/2006 3:34:41 PM

From what level I don't know ... 2 to 3?

Jeff Bailey : 11/15/2006 3:34:23 PM

Colombia's Auto Sales Rise 52% In Oct. Vs. Year Ago

Jeff Bailey : 11/15/2006 3:32:23 PM

Turkish Officer: Ties Suspended On Armenian Genocide Bill

Jeff Bailey : 11/15/2006 3:31:38 PM

Turkish Commander: Military Ties With France Suspended

Jeff Bailey : 11/15/2006 3:15:08 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 11/15/2006 3:11:13 PM

ES getting a bigger jump here. It will retest its broken uptrend line along today's lows at 1403.

Keene Little : 11/15/2006 3:07:08 PM

If the current bounce is to lead to another leg down watch for the bounce to stall out at YM 12297 and ES 1402 (two equal legs up and 38% retracement of the drop).

Jeff Bailey : 11/15/2006 3:03:11 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Keene Little : 11/15/2006 2:58:37 PM

ES came within a point of achieving two equal legs up from its November 3rd low (YM was 2 ticks shy of achieving equality). It remains to be seen if that will be the high for now. I am expecting to see a pullback over the next day or two, which should then be followed by another push higher. I'm thinking a rally into Thanksgiving is making more and more sense.

This ES chart is similar to the one I posted earlier for SPX and is obviously just speculation at this point but again it would be a typical pattern for what I believe is the final rally leg. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 11/15/2006 2:57:01 PM

Here is the link to the ES chart I posted elsewhere. It does not get any cleaner than this: Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/15/2006 2:50:55 PM

TYCO 4Q NET JUMPS 38%

DJ- Conglomerate posts net income of $1.27 billion, or 62c a share, which includes 12c gain and 1c loss from discontinued operations. Executives feel good about global economy. Firm says it didn't record $171 million in options costs.

TYC $29.77 -0.53% Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/15/2006 2:46:13 PM

CITIGROUP-LED TEAM SET TO WIN GDB

DJ- Consortium led by the banking giant is set to be named the preferred bidder for 85% of China's Guangdong Development Bank in a deal valued at around $3.1 billion, according to people with knowledge of the transaction.

C $50.32 -0.84% Link ...

Marc Eckelberry : 11/15/2006 2:50:05 PM

Blow off top ES 1405.50, 23.6% projection of triangle (1365.50/1398). Pretty cut and dry. Also COMP 2450. Bulls could pull out of this, but they would need NDX to close above 1800. Not likely at this point. Even if they do, risk reward favors accumulating short positions on rallies. The Feds will not lower rates it seems. My possible other scenario was 1408/1410, confluence Monthly R2 and 38.2% projection triangle, but we are nickel and diming at this point.

Jeff Bailey : 11/15/2006 2:43:43 PM

LEHMAN SEES STRONG GROWTH IN INDIA

DJ- Executive says firm is well-positioned to grow banking and capital-markets fees in the U.S. and is hiring rapidly to take advantage of Asian opportunities. Lehman Brothers forecasts fees for Wall Street will grow 7.3% annually.

LEH $75.43 +0.68% Link ... bad tick today. LEH's session high has been $75.99.

Jeff Bailey : 11/15/2006 2:41:21 PM

RAILAMERICA TO BE TAKEN PRIVATE

DJ- RailAmerica agrees to be acquired by alternative-asset manager Fortress Investment for $16.35 a share, a 32% premium to yesterday's closing price. Deal's $1.1 billion value includes refinancing of debt.RRA $15.83 +27.86% Link

Keene Little : 11/15/2006 2:41:18 PM

The break down now looks real--it's got some impulsive qualities to it. I fully expect we'll see a very choppy pullback/consolidation before pressing higher again but the correction has the potential to pull back to ES 1394 before getting a bounce and then drop lower again before finding firmer support at its uptrend line from November 3rd, currently near 1390.

Jeff Bailey : 11/15/2006 2:39:35 PM

US PENSION AGENCY REPORTS $18.1B '06 DEFICIT

DJ- Federal agency that insures private pension plans logs a lower deficit for fiscal 2006 as compared to last year's $22.8 billion. Agency attributes reduction to new law giving extra time to bankrupt airlines' pension plans.

Jeff Bailey : 11/15/2006 2:38:44 PM

REID WANTS $75B MORE FOR US MILITARY

DJ- Incoming Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid says his plan for Iraq, in addition to initiating a phased withdrawal of troops, will be to provide another $75 billion to repair badly damaged combat units.

Jeff Bailey : 11/15/2006 2:38:06 PM

LOTT WINS GOP SENATE NO 2 POST

DJ- U.S. Sen. Trent Lott, ousted from the Senate's leadership job four years ago because of remarks considered racially insensitive, has won election to the party's No. 2 Senate post.

Jeff Bailey : 11/15/2006 2:35:11 PM

The main thought behind pointy finger traders cite for the "bearish signal reversed" pattern being so powerful is that shorts have been systematically shorting each bounce, when all heck brakes loose and bulls and bears begin buying on the buy signal, that's when demand really outstrips any type of supply.

Jeff Bailey : 11/15/2006 2:33:10 PM

Now THAT'S a "bearish signal reversed" pattern. 7 columns of lower highs and lower lows, trade at $77 was the trigger.

Purdue University study found that pattern to be profitable 92% of the time, average gain 23.2% in 2.5 months when "bull phase" found. It is the most POWERFUL bull pattern.

Jeff Bailey : 11/15/2006 2:30:16 PM

BOEING POISED TO GET $10B IN NEW BUSINESS

DJ- After winning 200 more airplane orders than it expected this year, Boeing is poised to receive more than $10 billion worth of additional business in the coming weeks as airlines scramble to snap up delivery slots.

BA $86.91 +1.35% Link ...

Keene Little : 11/15/2006 2:30:02 PM

I had to rub my eyes there--is that a red candle I see? Will wonders never cease? A drop below the spike down post-FOMC minutes would be bearish.

Keene Little : 11/15/2006 2:28:25 PM

The market has now spiked down and up and centered where price was before the FOMC announcement. Flip a coin as to which way it's going to go from here. If the Boyz have more Fed money, we're going up. If they've spent today's dough, we're going down. It's not a good day to trade since technicals are being overridden. There will be better times than this and it's just not necessary to force trades. That's what's nice about our job--every day is another opportunity.

Jeff Bailey : 11/15/2006 2:28:02 PM

NY FED'S MANUFACTURING INDEX RISES

DJ- Manufacturing activity in the New York Federal Reserve district increases this month, with the index rising to 26.66 from an unrevised 22.92 in October. Economists expected a reading of 15.50.

Tab Gilles : 11/15/2006 2:19:10 PM

EIA Weekly Report Link

Keene Little : 11/15/2006 2:13:13 PM

One has to wonder how a strong stance on inflation and a worry about a recession could be considered bullish. And yet we rally. It obviously doesn't make any sense but "don't fight the Fed" has a whole new meaning now and it has nothing to do with their interest rate policy.

Keene Little : 11/15/2006 2:09:59 PM

If the stock market doesn't sell off on that news then there should be little question about the amount of manipulation we have in our "free" market place.

Keene Little : 11/15/2006 2:08:36 PM

Bonds are rallying on the news (yields dropping).

Keene Little : 11/15/2006 2:06:55 PM

Linda just wrote me real quick: "Strong stance about inflation and concerns about recession: something is really, really rotten in Denmark if this doesn't drive the markets lower, without a bounce. In fact, something already is rotten, to have equities driven up into these minutes." I couldn't agree more Linda.

Jeff Bailey : 11/15/2006 2:03:41 PM

Thirty-day Fed Funds Jan and Feb both 94.75/94.76.

100 - 94.75 = 5.25%

Keene Little : 11/15/2006 2:03:28 PM

Maybe we are in normal times. I would have felt better to see a head fake spike up before selling off. ES quickly dropped below the uptrend line along today's lows but bounced right back up so the question is whether the initial move down was the head fake move to suck in some bear fuel. Tought to tell right here and clearly risky for both sides at the moment.

Jeff Bailey : 11/15/2006 2:01:39 PM

FOMCE 10/24-10/25 Minutes at this Link

Keene Little : 11/15/2006 1:58:28 PM

They're really jamming this higher into the FOMC minutes announcement coming up. They either know something or else they're loading up on cheap November puts and will drop this like stone. Normally a run up like this into this kind of announcement would be a pretty classic setup for a short. But we're clearly not in normal times.

Jeff Bailey : 11/15/2006 1:58:33 PM

QQQQ 25-cent box Link

Note: Not a single "sell signal" since trade at $37.00 in late September. Most distribution seen has been 4-boxes ($1.00) and a trailing $1.25 stop for a bull has kept new entries safe.

Jeff Bailey : 11/15/2006 1:55:28 PM

QQQQ $44.29 +0.81% Link ... Today's trade at $44.00 has X getting the square.

Stockcharts.com's $BPNDX Link

Keene Little : 11/15/2006 1:52:30 PM

Another great link from Joe--stocktiming.com--where he found this chart: Link

The liquidity expansion phase is from the Fed pumping money into the monetary system (likely out of fear the economy will slow down too much from a collapsing housing market) and from foreign buyers pumping their money into our system. As stated by the author, "At some point, Institutions, Mutual and Hedge Funds will start a pattern of 'profit taking'. When that happens, it will put a serious stress on the market as the small investor can't keep the market up by himself."

Jeff Bailey : 11/15/2006 1:50:15 PM

Dow Transports (TRAN) 4,835 +1.47% ... retrace 80.9% of their 05/09/06 high close to recent 08/11/06 low close.

Keene Little : 11/15/2006 1:43:52 PM

ES is now very close to its upside Fib target at 1404. Obviously if there's a lot of money coming into the market then that won't matter but it's a level I'd watch for a potential high. But this could be one of those days where price just keeps sneaking higher and in hindsight you realize you should have just gone long and stayed there.

Keene Little : 11/15/2006 1:40:26 PM

We're starting to get a break to the upside so if this doesn't immediately drop back down then it'll be just another failed bearish wedge.

Jeff Bailey : 11/15/2006 1:36:10 PM

US AIRWAYS OFFERS TO BUY DELTA IN $8B DEAL

DJ- US Airways shares jump 13% as the carrier offers to buy Delta Air out of bankruptcy for $8 billion in cash and stock, making a public plea for a combination it says Delta has rejected despite two previous approaches. Delta creditors would receive $4 billion in cash and 78.5 million shares of US Airways stock. US Airways CEO says buyout can and must be completed by first half of 2007 in order to achieve $1.65 billion in expected synergies.

LCC $58.80 +15.47% Link

DALRQ $1.61 +9.52% (in bankruptcy) Link ... bond holders VERY happy today.

Keene Little : 11/15/2006 1:33:22 PM

This is the ascending wedge that's been building today. It looks bearish at the end of a run like this but proof obviously won't come until it breaks down. A drop below 1400 could usher in stronger selling. Resistance is currently near 1402.50. A throw-over above the pattern followed by a break below it should be a good sell signal. Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/15/2006 1:23:07 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/15/2006 1:19:32 PM

VIX 10.22 -2.66% ... last time VIX was this low (other than yesterday), the SPX closed at 1,318 (09/13/06).

SPX 1,398.06 +0.34% ...

Keene Little : 11/15/2006 1:15:24 PM

VIX is now 10.21. That one is getting very close now to going sub-10. Long term puts are getting a little cheaper with each drop.

Jeff Bailey : 11/15/2006 1:14:53 PM

GS $193.35 +1.54% Link ... back to test its 10/26/06 all-time high.

Bulls can leverage here with a tight stop at $182.

Jeff Bailey : 11/15/2006 1:12:39 PM

Broker/Dealer Index (XBD.X) alert 240.78 +0.82% ... edges above its 10/10/06 relative high.

Keene Little : 11/15/2006 1:09:29 PM

In its stair-stepping higher move since August the DOW has achieved its next higher step at 12250. These are approximate only but it does offer another reason why we could see a pullback. Link

The market is being slowly lifted higher into the FOMC minutes at 2:00 so it's a question now whether we'll get a sell-the-news event or if it will instead spike the market up out of this upward consolidation. I'm leaning towards the downside resolution but I'm not willing to bet big on that outcome. A couple of November puts is all I'll spend for a lottery ticket.

Jeff Bailey : 11/15/2006 1:07:11 PM

Might want to keep and eye on the 5-year and 10-year YIELDS in here. It has been several months since we've seen them inverted.

Jeff Bailey : 11/15/2006 1:03:36 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 11/15/2006 1:05:44 PM

Heh everyone. I forget to mention yesterday that I would be at the futures seminar in LV this week. I am on Denise's laptop and I really don't like laptops but she has been very gracious to let me use this.

Seminar has been great so for. I may log in later.

Jeff Bailey : 11/15/2006 12:54:18 PM

Somebody needs to get their "Fannie" out of bed!

FNM $58.96 -0.37%

Jeff Bailey : 11/15/2006 12:49:27 PM

MBA's Mortgage Data (Table) at this Link

Keene Little : 11/15/2006 12:44:31 PM

This chopping higher today either means it's an ending pattern (which is taking forever to play out) or it means get ready for a blast to the upside. I continue to think ending pattern but one can never be too sure with the Boyz and their money, especially during opex.

Jeff Bailey : 11/15/2006 12:37:14 PM

MBA's Weekly Application Survey Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/15/2006 12:33:27 PM

OPEC President

Oil At $58-$60/Bbl Not Good For Investment

OPEC Should Have Cut More Oil At Doha Mtg

Further Output Cut Probable At Dec Abuja Mtg

Nigeria Output Now 2.1M B/D Vs 2.4M B/D Oct

Jeff Bailey : 11/15/2006 12:30:49 PM

US Energy Shares Jump After U.S. Supply Data

DJ- Oil and gas shares jumped Wednesday after U.S. supply data showed that gasoline inventories have dropped more than 15 million barrels in five weeks.

The Amex Oil Index erased its initial losses and was up 0.9% to 1182.13 points as crude oil for December delivery gained a $1.02 to stand at $58.30 a barrel in commodities trading.

Meanwhile, the Philadelphia Oil Service Index added 1.7% to 201.70 points and the Amex Natural Gas Index shot up 1.4% to 452.14 points as natural gas jumped 2.1% to $8.15 per million British thermal units.

Motor gasoline supplies fell by 3.7 million barrels to 200.3 million for the week ended Nov. 10, the Energy Department reported Wednesday morning. The American Petroleum Institute said they fell 1.4 million barrels to 203.7 million.

Including the latest decline, gasoline inventories have tallied a fall of 15.2 million barrels since early October, according to government figures.

Crude supplies rose 1.3 million to 336 million, the Energy Department reported - though that was what some market analysts had been expecting. They are up 3.7 million barrels in three weeks, according to the data.

On the oil index, refiners surged following the supply data. Sunoco Inc. (SUN) climbed 3.3% to $66.79, while Valero Energy Corp. (VLO) added 2.9% to $54.56.

Repsol YPF (REP) was the index's sole decliner, sliding 2% to $35.70.

Among oil-service providers, Halliburton Co. (HAL) led the index forward, rising 4.5% to $33.50 in early action.

Halliburton now expects the initial public offering for its KBR Inc. to be priced Wednesday night after a one-day delay to recirculate its IPO prospectus. This puts the KBR spinoff on track to make its stock market debut on Thursday.

Calyon Securities praised the spinoff, shrugging off a disclosure from the company that it could lose a contract to maintain nuclear submarines in the U.K. because of a dispute with the British government over the IPO.

"We continue to see significant value at KBR, and believe investors should remain focused on the energy and chemical unit's bright growth prospects in the liquefied natural gas and gas to liquids gas monetization markets," Calyon Securities said.

Jeff Bailey : 11/15/2006 12:28:14 PM

Bk Canada Repurchases C$3.3M Of 9.50%, June 2010 Bonds

Jeff Bailey : 11/15/2006 12:27:59 PM

Bk Canada Repurchases C$322M Of 5.50%, June 2010 Bonds

Jeff Bailey : 11/15/2006 12:27:47 PM

Bk Canada Repurchases C$75M Of 4.25%, Sept 2009 Bonds

Jeff Bailey : 11/15/2006 12:22:32 PM

SPY option montage (OI as of last night's close) at this Link

Keene Little : 11/15/2006 12:22:27 PM

Really curious if you guys have any thoughts concerning the NMX(Nymex) IPO? Thnx, Kelly

Kelly, my only thought about this is that it's being so hyped up that it could be another sign of excessive bullishness in the market right now. We saw something very similar in 1999-2000 as the market was topping--IPOs were being hyped big time and it was an indication of the excessive froth in the market. My gut tells me the stock won't do well once the big players get their money out of the deal and after its initial spike up from those who couldn't get in on the first round. I could be totally wrong but I'd avoid it like the plague.

Keene Little : 11/15/2006 12:15:37 PM

YM 12287 would also ties in closely with a little higher than ES 1402.

Jeff Bailey : 11/15/2006 12:13:37 PM

SPY "Max Pain" for November tabulated at $137 ($1 increments)

Keene Little : 11/15/2006 12:11:16 PM

We've got a potential shallow ascending wedge developing here for ES, the top of which is at 1402. A little throw-over above that and a drop back down could be the end of this run up.

Jeff Bailey : 11/15/2006 12:00:41 PM

Broker Dealer Index (XBD.X) 239.79 +0.41% ... WEEKLY S1 has served session support and early October highs set to be tested. WEEKLY R1 at 242.22 darned near marks the old all-time high!

Jeff Bailey : 11/15/2006 11:53:58 AM

Will take the loss and $0.15 as instructed after the Illinois court decision. I'm going to let mine ride in personal account.

Jeff Bailey : 11/15/2006 11:52:24 AM

AGP-KG $0.10 x $0.30 now. That one got taken.

AGP $34.22 bid.

Jeff Bailey : 11/15/2006 11:47:54 AM

AGP $34.09 +3.08% ... if I had just one Nov $35 call, I'd be tempted to ride it out, see what the "option gods" had in store. Bid appears at $0.05 on the AGP-KG ... CBOE is offering 1 at $0.15

Keene Little : 11/15/2006 11:45:23 AM

Banks are dropping to new daily lows although they've only pulled back marginally from yesterday. But they were also relatively weaker yesterday as well. The Trannies are very strong this morning, currently up 66 (+1.4%).

Jeff Bailey : 11/15/2006 11:41:11 AM

Coeur d'Alene Mines (CDE) $5.19 +0.97% ...

Barrick Gold (ABX) $29.44 +0.89% ...

Keene Little : 11/15/2006 11:39:40 AM

In case you don't receive the daily Market Wraps, here's the weekly SPX chart I've been regularly including in the report: Link

Keene Little : 11/15/2006 11:38:16 AM

A thought occurred to me this morning as I watch this market push higher this week. With the choppy price action it would be fitting for the final leg up in the big rally to see an ascending wedge develop for the final 5th wave. As depicted on this SPX chart it might look something like this: Link

I'm using this morning's high as the top of the 3rd wave inside a developing ascending wedge, which may or may not be the high so this is obviously speculation at this point. This pattern calls for a choppy pullback to be followed by another choppy rise to a final high.

When I Fib out the move from a couple of different degrees of the trend I'm getting SPX 1400-1405 for an upside target. The top of the long term up-channel (on the weekly chart) is closer to 1400 so maybe a little throw-over. From a timing standpoint this pattern suggests a high early next week, perhaps just before Thanksgiving.

Jeff Bailey : 11/15/2006 11:33:10 AM

AGP's WEEKLY R2 is $35.16 ... 2.5 days until expiration.

Jeff Bailey : 11/15/2006 11:31:39 AM

Amerigroup (AGP) alert $34.00 +2.75% ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/15/2006 11:25:18 AM

When I had profiled that LONG SPY $136 Puts, I had noted where the OI was at and while I lost on that trade, the exit was timed correctly. VIX action still suggests (especially yesterday) that there are some VERY NAKED CALL sellers out there and looking to hedge with each break higher, or pullback.

S&P futures are a GREAT TOOL to hedge against NAKED call/put positions.

Jeff Bailey : 11/15/2006 11:22:07 AM

VIX 10-minute interval chart with QCharts' WEEKLY/DAILY Pivot Levels Link

Keene Little : 11/15/2006 11:23:01 AM

Nice little buying spike. Now let's see if there will be follow through. Continue to watch YM 12287 for a potential high for this move. If it keeps going then I see ES 1404 as the next upside Fib target.

Jeff Bailey : 11/15/2006 11:17:29 AM

VIX 10.44 -0.57% ... set to test WEEKLY S1 again. If taken out, DAILY S1 is 10.16.

Jeff Bailey : 11/15/2006 11:15:50 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 11/15/2006 11:12:02 AM

Some big cap tech distribution on the unleaded gas spike. Watch NQ 1800. If that cracks, support is 1797.75, 1794 and 1784/1787. NQ hit weekly R2 (just shy by one point) and that seems to be where many got out. Note however all the put buying at QQQQ 44, although that could be some very serious hedging, typical at new highs. But it can be supportive by tomorrow.
I have a blow-off top target at NQ 1830 if we move past 1806 on volume. Line in the sand is 1757, so there is some good trading range coming.

Keene Little : 11/15/2006 11:05:47 AM

It's certainly a question of who's going to blink first. This continues to look like we're going to see an upside resolution but a sell program could just as easily knock this lower quickly if too many traders are leaning towards the upside resolution.

Jeff Bailey : 11/15/2006 11:03:42 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/15/2006 10:54:07 AM

SPR added 90,000 barrels of crude

Jeff Bailey : 11/15/2006 10:52:09 AM

EIA: ULS Diesel -1.3 million, Jet Fuel -3.41 million, Heat Oil +116,000

Keene Little : 11/15/2006 10:41:29 AM

Not only is price choppy but I also see mixed internals so direction is not at all clear here. Risky trading either way so not a bad time to sit and wait for a clearer picture.

Jeff Bailey : 11/15/2006 10:36:09 AM

SPY $139.78 +0.11% ... DAILY R1 $140.18, with overlapping WEEKLY R2/MONTHLY R1 just above that.

Tab Gilles : 11/15/2006 10:32:13 AM

EIA: +1.3M Crude -3.7M Gasoline -3.6M Distillates

Keene Little : 11/15/2006 10:29:17 AM

If we do get another spike higher I am again not expecting it to go far. It's looking like we're finishing up the rally leg from yesterday, either here or a little higher first. So while I wouldn't chase this higher at this point (not worth the risk) it could be a touch early to try shorting it. Look to short a new high if we get it. YM 12287 is not far above but a continuation above that and I then have ES 1404 as a potential high.

Keene Little : 11/15/2006 10:25:55 AM

The only problem I see right here with the expectation for a pullback is that this sideways consolidation near the high makes it look like we're going to get another leg up. Be careful if you're trying to short it here as another buy program could quickly spike this higher again.

Jeff Bailey : 11/15/2006 10:22:44 AM

Russell 2000 (RUT.X) with an initial "bull fit 38.2%" at this Link ... I really want to get a retracement level to "fit" that pullback in early November.

Keene Little : 11/15/2006 10:21:39 AM

It seems like everyone is waiting for another buy program to fire off. Very little interest in selling or buying here as volume continues to taper off.

Keene Little : 11/15/2006 10:17:49 AM

YM is pushing back to its morning high but is starting to leave some glaring negative divergences. This looks ready for a pullback now.

Jeff Bailey : 11/15/2006 10:09:43 AM

In mid-to-late September, the 735 area was a formidable level of resistance, so that's where I'd be looking to place a "bull fit 38.2%" to begin.

Keene Little : 11/15/2006 10:08:53 AM

YM 12287 makes for a good upside Fib target if it manages to push higher again.

Keene Little : 11/15/2006 10:07:58 AM

If this can press marginally higher again it's looking like a very small ascending wedge this morning which would be appropriate for the last leg up in the rally from yesterday's low. That should then lead to a larger pullback correction.

Jeff Bailey : 11/15/2006 10:07:07 AM

Roll up those retracement!

Jeff Bailey : 11/15/2006 10:06:48 AM

Russell 2000 Index (RUT.X) 788.64 +0.45% ... New All-time High!

Jeff Bailey : 11/15/2006 10:02:48 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Keene Little : 11/15/2006 10:01:14 AM

We're obviously overbought on all time frames now and we're getting negative divergences showing up as this is pushing higher so I wouldn't chase this to the upside. We're due a pullback. Of course this is opex.

Jeff Bailey : 11/15/2006 9:58:59 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/15/2006 9:52:40 AM

Bullish swing trade raise stop alert for Coeur d'Alene Mines (CDE) to $4.85.

CDE $5.06 -1.55% ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/15/2006 9:47:58 AM

Bullish swing trade call raise stop alert for the United Parcel Service UPS Jan $75 Calls (UPS-AO) to $74 in the underlying shares.

UPS $77.80 +0.24%

Keene Little : 11/15/2006 9:43:32 AM

Nope, seems the Boyz just want to jam this higher. But I'm not expecting it to go much higher before we see it consolidate/pull back.

Keene Little : 11/15/2006 9:38:49 AM

I'm not sure what pattern is playing out on NQ but one possibility that I'm looking at calls for a move with two equal legs up from its Friday low at 1743.25. That gives us an upside target of 1801 to watch for resistance to any further rally today.

Keene Little : 11/15/2006 9:31:54 AM

Watch for an initial move lower get reversed again, a typical move we've seen so many times before.

Keene Little : 11/15/2006 9:12:45 AM

I hope no one stayed up last night to trade the overnight futures. We had a surprisingly flat session with a range of only 2 ES points. The move from 8:00 AM to 8:30 AM (1.50 points) was a big move move relative to the overnight range.

The small consolidation just before yesterday's close left me with the impression that we were going to get another move higher to a minor new high before consolidating in a larger sideways/down move that could take up most of the day. That should then be followed by another move higher again. This chart shows my latest guess as to what pattern is playing out. Link

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