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OI Technical Staff : 11/22/2006 9:59:59 PM

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Jeff Bailey : 11/22/2006 6:33:48 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/22/2006 4:25:13 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/22/2006 4:23:45 PM

NYX $108.96 +4.16% ... couldn't quite close the deal at $110.91 today. I STRONGLY suggest bull use some type of trailing stop at, or just below the bullish vertical count of $106.

Jeff Bailey : 11/22/2006 4:22:22 PM

Oh my! LAB $12.05 +12.61% Link ... was one of those "upside al_rts" that I was swamped with this morning. I was trying to get them cleared as they were hitting (most indices) and missed this one for a trade. They're perhaps the biggest executer of NYSE trading.

Jeff Bailey : 11/22/2006 4:02:17 PM

YM alert 12,359

Jeff Bailey : 11/22/2006 4:00:59 PM

Have a safe and Happy Thanksgiving!

Jeff Bailey : 11/22/2006 3:59:22 PM

YM 12,351

Jeff Bailey : 11/22/2006 3:59:11 PM

Well... a little gas money to get me where I'm going. I'm taking the 1/2 day off on Friday, will be back Monday morning. Goose opener this weekend and while I'll be enjoying a turkey dinner with family and friends on Thursday, Drake and his visiting friend "Foster" want some bird too.

Jeff Bailey : 11/22/2006 3:57:12 PM

Decided to go with 2 today, instead of the default 1 as I didn't think there was going to be much price action from profile. Still, thought there'd be more than 12,337-12,349

Jeff Bailey : 11/22/2006 3:55:15 PM

YM 12,349

Jeff Bailey : 11/22/2006 3:54:16 PM

YM long exit alert both of the buggers (2) at 12,347

Jeff Bailey : 11/22/2006 3:48:07 PM

YM long lower bullish target alert .... to 12,354.

YM 12,347 ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/22/2006 3:46:30 PM

YM long finger on the button alert ... with YM 12,343 ...

Keene Little : 11/22/2006 3:41:34 PM

Another look before the market closes and I see we got a small pop higher out of today's congestion. Each of the majors is showing a slightly different pattern over the past few days and it's making it more difficult to figure out whether this is topping action or preparation for another run higher.

If ES can continue its choppy move higher on Friday we could be getting very close to putting in a significant high. NQ looks like it could be close to putting in a top. YM looks like it needs to pull back and then rally. ER and NYSE look like ES and NQ. Speaking of NYSE I still like the 9000 level for a high in that index and another minor new could do it for that one (today's high was 8960). And that's the general feeling I'm getting now from this market.

But getting a sense of market direction from a week like this is not always helpful so we'll get through Friday's half day of trading and then see how next week goes.

Tab Gilles : 11/22/2006 3:25:54 PM

EIA Report Link Happy Thanksgiving everyone!

Jeff Bailey : 11/22/2006 3:12:40 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/22/2006 3:02:05 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/22/2006 2:54:31 PM

Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI) $4.35 +9.57% ... probes its trending lower 200-day SMA ($4.37)

Jeff Bailey : 11/22/2006 2:41:25 PM

YM long entry alert .. for two (2) at 12,340. Stop 12,332, target 12,359.

Jeff Bailey : 11/22/2006 2:29:26 PM

Bullish swing trade long alert for just under 1/4 bullish and 500 shares of Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI) at the offer of $4.26 +7.30%. Place the stop at $3.90 and target $5.00.

Jeff Bailey : 11/22/2006 2:24:31 PM


DJ- Mike Wedge, who had been CEO for 4 years, departs the warehouse club, a far-back No. 3 behind Costco and Sam's Club. Chairman Zarkin named interim CEO. Resignation could reignite takeover rumors and sends stock up 10%.

BJ $32.63 +10.49% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/22/2006 2:16:56 PM

Alyeska Pipeline Resumed Tanker Loading Late Tuesday

DJ- The Trans-Alaska pipeline's Valdez port facilities were able to load crude oil into awaiting tankers late Tuesday, a spokesman for Alyeska Pipeline Service Co. said Wednesday.

"We started loading two vessels last night," said Alyeska spokesman Mike Heatwole.

Heatwole couldn't specify whether the curtailment of the pipeline's flow, or the bad weather that caused it, had ceased.

The company had said Monday that the pipeline was operating at 25% of its 800,000 barrel-a-day capacity as strong winds in the port of Valdez, Alaska, hampered tanker loading.

Alaska oil firms were producing at 35% of their capacity on Tuesday morning, said Rhea DoBosh, a spokeswoman with Alaska's Joint Pipeline Office.

With tankers being unable to load oncoming crude, inventories at the port facility reached 85% to 90% of their 7 million barrel capacity on Tuesday. Once conditions are favorable, tankers can load up to 100,000 barrels an hour of crude, Heatwole said.

Jeff Bailey : 11/22/2006 2:05:33 PM


DJ- Investment vehicle of Kirk Kerkorian plans to buy 15 million shares of MGM Mirage at $55 each, a 12% premium to yesterday's closing price. If completed, offer would raise Tracinda's stake in casino giant to 62%.

MGM $54.13 +10.46% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/22/2006 1:58:34 PM


DJ- Shares of General Motors fall 3%, losing ground for fourth-straight session as speculation over plans of No. 3 shareholder Kirk Kerkorian weigh on the stock. Auto maker also says it will scrap plans to develop a new family of minivans due to a shift in product strategy that has GM focusing intently on the growing crossover segment.

GM $31.03 -4.87% Link ...

Keene Little : 11/22/2006 1:53:03 PM

Taking a peak at the market here tells me I'm not missing anything by starting my travels early. It's gone even flatter than I thought it would. After this morning's quick spike down it looks as though we could start another choppy climb similar to what we've been seeing the past week. Looking at the 30-min chart of ES over the past week shows this choppy climb, quick sell, choppy climb, quick sell pattern and it's beggining to look more bearish.

That's a distribution pattern if I ever saw one. But even this pattern looks like it needs at least another choppy climb to a minor new high before it counts complete. Just be careful if you're long since the next big surprise for the market could be a nasty one.

Jeff Bailey : 11/22/2006 1:25:18 PM

JP Morgan ups Brazil, Russia debt to "overweight" in EMBIG Index

DJ- JPMorgan has increased its exposure to Brazilian and Russian debt to overweight from neutral in the model portfolio of its Emerging Markets Bond Index Global, according to a research note.

JPMorgan said it implemented the change by buying two million of Brazil's 2037 Global bonds at $104.90, as it was underweight the long end of Brazil and the 2037s have under-performed recently against other bonds in the Brazil curve. The bank also said it would buy five million Russia 2030 Global bonds at $112.68.

The changes reflect a broader move to overweight in the EMBIG portfolio by favoring commodity exporters and higher beta credits, JPMorgan said. The bank is already overweight Argentina, Mexico, Venezuela, Serbia and Qatar, it said.

The bank said it expects EMBIG spreads to narrow toward 150 basis points during 2007, supported by liability management, robust inflows, scarcity value of external debt and a supportive global backdrop.

On Wednesday, the EMBIG was one basis point wider at 194 basis points over Treasurys, tighter than the 237 basis points at which it ended 2005. Through Tuesday's close, the EMBIG had returned 8.6% year-to-date.

Referring to the portfolio adjustments, JPMorgan said Brazil's debt will benefit from the strong market tone, upward revisions in the capital account surplus and the start of a reform agenda.

President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva starts a second, four-year term in January and has indicated he may be prepared to try to tackle large structural problems such as the large social security deficit.

Russian fundamentals should continue to improve in 2007, supported by high oil prices and the build-up of a significant fiscal reserve, JPMorgan added.

Across the broader outlook for 2007, the bank said the signs are encouraging for emerging market bonds.

"Over the coming year, EMBIG spreads are likely to continue to grind tighter and trade well inside the current ratings level, driven by buybacks and sovereign liability management," it said.

As cash bonds in external debt are becoming increasingly scarce, market participants are no longer willing to take profits whenever they reach a target since they are increasingly forced to buy them at an even higher price a few weeks later, JPMorgan said.

Technicals on external debt are supportive for 2007, with continuation of robust inflows seen in 2006 and positive cash flows generated due to a limited issuance pipeline, it said.

External debt coupons and amortizations will amount to $46.5 billion in 2007, while emerging market governments will need only about $39 billion of overseas financing, of which $7 billion has already been raised in 2006, JPMorgan said.

"The global backdrop will also remain supportive in 2007, with emerging market (economic) growth expected to exceed 5% next year and commodity prices expected to remain firm," it said.

"Given all these factors, JPMorgan expects EMBIG spreads to grind toward 150 basis points during the course of next year," it said.

Jeff Bailey : 11/22/2006 1:17:04 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link ... NASDAQ's a/d not nearly as strong as I would guess with TRINQ pinned down at 0.36.

Jeff Bailey : 11/22/2006 1:04:59 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/22/2006 12:58:48 PM

Sector Bell Curve Comparison (10/31 to 11/21) at this Link

PROT reversed lower a few days ago to "bear confirmed" at 40%, then on 11/17, reversed right back up to "bear correction"... bugger is now 47.06% and only needs 48% to get "bull confirmed."

Jeff Bailey : 11/22/2006 12:36:15 PM

Hey! ... a "low pole warning" on GLD's $0.40 box (and that of futures) ... with a h/s bottom pattern. Here's GLD chart with the pattern, and retracement for that pattern Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/22/2006 12:26:13 PM

The reverse h/s pattern on the GLD that is still in play (head $56, neckline $60) has pattern objective of $64.

Jeff Bailey : 11/22/2006 12:24:41 PM

StreetTracks Gold (GLD) $62.45 +0.28% ... same bar chart with retracement at this Link

$0.40 box chart of GLD at this Link (futures traders will view on $4.00 box)

Jeff Bailey : 11/22/2006 12:17:55 PM

iShares Silver (AMEX:SLV) $129.91 -0.29% ... same bar chart with retracement I've been following, sometimes trading here in the MM, at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/22/2006 12:11:37 PM

Barrick (ABX) $28.92 -0.58% ... WEEKLY R1 pretty much marked this morning's highs.

Jeff Bailey : 11/22/2006 12:10:53 PM

StreetTracks Gold (GLD) $62.27 (unch) ... backfills this morning's gap higher. "Usually" finds buyers intra-day from here. Time will tell.

Jeff Bailey : 11/22/2006 12:06:51 PM

EIA Weekly Nat Gas Storage Table Link ... Decline of 1 BCF

Jeff Bailey : 11/22/2006 12:05:28 PM

Jabil To Acquire Taiwan Green Point

DJ- Pricey $880 million acquisition is part of Jabil's effort to strengthen its ability to design and make components for electronic-device makers. Taiwan Green Point works closely with Motorola, while Jabil's customers include Nokia.

JBL $29.14 +0.30% Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/22/2006 11:58:34 AM

NYSE Group (NYX) adjusted my "bull fit 38.2%" at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/22/2006 11:53:31 AM

Check it out ... on the NYX, take your retracement from the 06/13/06 low close of $49.98, but then eeeeedge up the 38.2% to the relative high of $78.79 on 10/10/06. That really "makes sense" as to how the stock has been traded by the MARKET.

Jeff Bailey : 11/22/2006 11:46:10 AM

Good gravy! ... NYSE Group (NYX) $110.95 +6.08% Link ... achieves its bullish vertical count and then some. A "bull fit 38.2%" from 6/13/06 low close to early October closes ($77.59) has 61.8% at $94.66, 80.9% $108.47 and 100% at $122.28.

Jeff Bailey : 11/22/2006 11:42:18 AM


DJ- Newspaper rejects a proposal by a group of Boston businessmen, including former General Electric CEO Jack Welch and advertising executive Jack Connors, to buy the Boston Globe, reports the Globe.

NYT $24.29 -0.32% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/22/2006 11:35:45 AM


DJ- Fast-food chain agrees to pay $35.75 a share, or a total of $801.3 million, for 22.4 million of the 27.89 million shares offered under a modified Dutch auction tender.

WEN $33.58 +1.57% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/22/2006 11:32:58 AM


DJ- An estimated 38.3 million people will travel 50 miles or more during the five-day Thanksgiving holiday period beginning today, according to AAA. The estimate is up 1 million from last year.

Jeff Bailey : 11/22/2006 11:32:07 AM


DJ- An index gauging future prospects in U.S. commercial real estate sector rises for sixth-straight quarter, suggesting continued growth in the commercial market, the National Association of Realtors says.

Jeff Bailey : 11/22/2006 11:31:42 AM


DJ- Energy Department says crude inventories rise 5.1 million barrels last week, much higher than the 400,000-barrel gain analysts on average expected. Jump sends crude futures sharply lower.

Jeff Bailey : 11/22/2006 11:31:02 AM


DJ- Jobless claims rise more sharply than expected last week, by 12,000 to 321,000, suggesting some slackening in labor market. University of Michigan consumer confidence index slightly erodes ahead of holiday shopping season, falling to 92.1.

Jane Fox : 11/22/2006 11:16:00 AM

I will also be back on Friday, to the monitor at least, however, I will still be in Alberta.

Jane Fox : 11/22/2006 11:15:09 AM

And I am getting ready for my trip to Canada over the Rockies, fortunately I have a 4x4. I will miss cooking turkey dinner and all the trimmings but I need to take care of family matters.

Internals are neutral now but watch to see if price consolidates at daily lows and if so that is a very good indication we will see lower lows.

Jeff Bailey : 11/22/2006 11:14:10 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 11/22/2006 11:10:43 AM

I'm getting ready to leave for my trip over the Cascade mountain pass to get to eastern Washington. I decided to get my trip started early since the pass conditions are not great and I don't want to get stuck behind a line of trucks and cars trying to get over the pass.

I believe the market will head higher out of the consolidation it's been in the past few days but the current bounce this morning (more so in ES and YM) has me wondering if we're going to see either a slight drop to the uptrend line from November 3rd (ES 1400) or a continuation of the choppy up and down and work sideways over to it by Friday or Monday.

If it were to drop to 1400 I'd be a buyer there. Otherwise today stands the chance of being just a choppy mess like the previous few days. It's probably a good day to get away from the market anyway before you hurt yourself. I hope everyone has a great Thanksgiving holiday with friends and family. I'll check back in later if I can and I'll also be back here with you on Friday.

Jeff Bailey : 11/22/2006 11:02:31 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/22/2006 10:58:28 AM

iShares Silver (SLV) $130.59 +0.22% ... has retraced 61.8% of its May/June decline. Pressure here and bulls could really gain control on move much higher.

Jeff Bailey : 11/22/2006 10:55:04 AM

Bullish swing trade long alert ... for 1/2 position in the StreetTracks Gold (GLD) $62.60 +0.52% here, stop $61.00, target $65.00.

Jeff Bailey : 11/22/2006 10:48:22 AM

Dollar Index (dx00y) ... breaks below upward trend from 12/31/04 low to recent 05/12/06 relative low.

Jeff Bailey : 11/22/2006 10:46:56 AM

U.S. Dollar Index (dx00y) 84.58 -0.77% (30-min. delayed) ... pounded lower to MONTHLY S1.

Keene Little : 11/22/2006 10:44:45 AM

We're getting a bounce but I can't say it's of the bullish variety. It looks more like a corrective bounce. Except NQ--after showing relative weakness it now is bouncing a little more strongly. Good time to be flat since I don't like either side here.

Jane Fox : 11/22/2006 10:43:32 AM

So much for the get long and stay long day. This are bearish and I would not be long here. Link

Jane Fox : 11/22/2006 10:40:37 AM

Me thinks that last post about the Michigan Sentiment was the culprit for the reversal.

Jane Fox : 11/22/2006 10:40:45 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Consumer sentiment weakened slightly in late November, according to media reports Friday of proprietary research from the University of Michigan. The UMich consumer sentiment index inched lower to 92.1 in late November from 92.3 earlier in the month. The decline was unexpected. Economists were expecting the index to rise to 93.3. The index is below the 93.6 level in October.

Jane Fox : 11/22/2006 10:38:57 AM

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- The Energy Department said crude supplies rose 5.1 million barrels to 341.1 million for the week ended Nov. 17. Motor gasoline supplies rose for the first time in six weeks, up 1.4 million barrels at 201.7 million. Distillate inventories stocks fell for a seventh-straight week, down 1.2 million barrels to total 133.8 million barrels. Following the news, January crude fell by 62 cents to $59.55 a barrel.

Jeff Bailey : 11/22/2006 10:29:34 AM

Freeport McMoRan (FCX) $62.49 +7.00% ... speculation that even after recent offer to buy PD, FCX may be acquisition target of BHP.

Jane Fox : 11/22/2006 10:17:32 AM

Things have changed a lot now and it is certainly not time to be long. That was an amazing show the bulls put on but they are just plain Jane (only I can say that) tired.

Jane Fox : 11/22/2006 10:16:10 AM

According to the VIX the bears have the ball but the AD line and volume are saying they do not have field advantage - yet.

Keene Little : 11/22/2006 10:12:58 AM

We've now head a small head fake down, a BIG head fake up, and now a BIGGER head fake down? Let's see if ES 1404 holds which is where I'd try the next long play. But watch the head fake break below that level.

Jane Fox : 11/22/2006 10:10:17 AM

Buuuutttt AD line is +634 and the TRIN is 0.74. Don't you just wish these dang ducks could stay in line.

Jane Fox : 11/22/2006 10:08:58 AM

Ok bulls beware VIX making new daily highs confirming ES's new daily lows.

Jane Fox : 11/22/2006 10:07:56 AM

* NYSE volume 188.3M
* NYSE has 1753 advancers
* NYSE has 848 decliners
* NYSE has 208 issues unchanged
* NYSE has 193 issues setting 52-week highs
* NYSE has 2 issues setting 52-week highs
* Nasdaq volume 263M
* Nasdaq has 1,450 advancers
* Nasdaq has 927 decliners
* Nasdaq has issues 198 unchanged
* Nasdaq has 110 issues setting 52-week highs
* Nasdaq has 15 issues setting 52-week lows

Jeff Bailey : 11/22/2006 10:02:47 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 11/22/2006 10:02:25 AM

S&P 500 high of 1,407.89 is highest seen since Nov. 2000

Keene Little : 11/22/2006 9:57:13 AM

If ES does pull back further watch for support at 1404.

Jeff Bailey : 11/22/2006 9:57:13 AM

Homebuilders +2.72% and Gold Bugs +1.71% sector winners early.

Biotech -0.35 and Transports -0.17% fractionally weak.

Keene Little : 11/22/2006 9:52:10 AM

ES is now testing 1408 so it's a good place to try a long. But if it doesn't hold, get out of the way.

Jeff Bailey : 11/22/2006 9:52:09 AM

BRCD gave a spread triple top buy signal at $8.50. A Purdue University study showed that pattern profitable for a bull 85.7% of the time, average gain of 22.9% over 7.7 months when "bull phase".

Dorsey/Wright classifies BRCD as belonging to its COMPuters bullish %, which achieved "bull confirmed" status on 11/08/06 at 50%. Sector currently at 51.11%.

Keene Little : 11/22/2006 9:51:06 AM

NQ now back in the red.

Jane Fox : 11/22/2006 9:49:12 AM

Dec. gold climbs $3.10 to $631.80/oz after $633.30 high
Dec. silver up 5.5 cents at $13.14/oz
Dec. copper rises 2.25 cents to $3.138/lb

Jane Fox : 11/22/2006 9:48:41 AM

Nasdaq advancers outnumber decliners 14 to 9
NYSE advancers outnumber decliners 5 to 2

Jeff Bailey : 11/22/2006 9:47:19 AM

Brocade Communications (BRCD) $9.19 +8.24% Link ... gap higher open. Careful of trend if thinking a new long here.

Jane Fox : 11/22/2006 9:47:04 AM

Sometimes trading is easy. When these two look like this don't even think about been short. Link

Keene Little : 11/22/2006 9:46:31 AM

NQ has now given up that entire jolt to the upside.

Jeff Bailey : 11/22/2006 9:43:26 AM

Dell Computer (DELL) $27.48 +10.71% Link ...

Keene Little : 11/22/2006 9:41:21 AM

Well, I guess it will. Straight up, again. Lots of people scurrying to join the party (or shorts are getting out of the way). ES 1408 needs to hold on any pullback now.

Jeff Bailey : 11/22/2006 9:40:27 AM

Getting quite a few upside al_rts for 52-week highs.

Jane Fox : 11/22/2006 9:40:26 AM

Obviously not today.

Jane Fox : 11/22/2006 9:40:09 AM

TICKS +1000

Jane Fox : 11/22/2006 9:40:03 AM

One has to wonder when this energizer bunny will run out of juice.

Keene Little : 11/22/2006 9:39:21 AM

Nice little buy program off that push down at the open. Still playing their familiar game. The overnight highs are close to being tested so we'll see if this spurt to the up side holds.

Jane Fox : 11/22/2006 9:38:46 AM

Internals are very clear and very bullish.

Jane Fox : 11/22/2006 9:38:27 AM

So far I see today as a "Get Long and stay long."

Jane Fox : 11/22/2006 9:37:56 AM

Not a day to try shorting. TRIN is 0.67 and falling. I see the VIX is falling as well. And there go the TICKS

Jane Fox : 11/22/2006 9:34:24 AM

VIX is climbing and TRIN is falling.

Jane Fox : 11/22/2006 9:33:17 AM

AD line is +389 and AD volume above 0 and climbing.

Keene Little : 11/22/2006 9:19:52 AM

Overnight action was bullish but I'm not sure why prices pulled back relatively sharply in the early morning hours (we're still only talking 3 ES points though). The top of the little ascending triangle over the past few days for ES is at 1408 and the overnight high was 1409.25 so that might be our clue that the consolidation is finished and up we go. Otherwise watch for the possibility for another very small pullback, as depicted on this chart, before starting the next rally leg. Link

Jane Fox : 11/22/2006 9:11:15 AM

Gold is doing just what the charts said it would do, rally. I love this market.

I see Oil has hung on to the gains it made yesterday but this fickle market could change on a dime, or any geopolitical event.

Overnight Natural Gas tested its PDL and looks like it could fall further.

TBonds are on their way to test yearly highs but the MACD on the daily chart is telling me the test will fail. I suspect TBonds will revisit the daily 50EMA (111'23) before it sees new yearly highs. Link

Jane Fox : 11/22/2006 8:54:03 AM

You are not going to believe this, both NQ and ES made new yearly highs overnight. And here I thought this was going to be a throwaway week. It just goes to show how strong the bulls are. Truly unbelievable. Link

Jane Fox : 11/22/2006 8:50:45 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose to their highest level since late October, climbing by 12,000 last week to stand at 321,000, the Labor Department reported Wednesday.

The four-week moving average of new claims also rose, moving up by 3,000 to 317,000 for the week ended Nov. 18. Some economists consider the four-week average a more accurate indicator of claims because it smoothes out distortions like holidays, weather or labor strikes.

Economists had been expecting initial claims of about 310,000.

The number of people collecting unemployment benefits climbed by 14,000 in the week ended Nov. 11, to 2.45 million, the Labor Department said. It's the highest reading in 10 weeks. Meanwhile, the four-week average of continuing claims rose to 2.43 million, up 3,000

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