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Jeff Bailey : 12/1/2006 1:48:19 AM

Weekly/Monthly Index Matrix at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/1/2006 1:19:52 AM

November Trade Blotter of CLOSED trades the I profiled as well as Current OPEN Positions with updated stops/targets at this Link

Note: The $3.00 target for the RCV-OV is in the option itself.

Jeff Bailey : 12/1/2006 1:10:47 AM

There are 11 trading sessions left until December equity option expiration.

Jeff Bailey : 12/1/2006 12:56:51 AM

Bullish swing trade raise stop alert ... on the 1/2 bullish position for the StreetTracks Gold (GLD) to $63.85. (just under its h/s bottom price objective of $64) target remains $65.00.

Jeff Bailey : 12/1/2006 12:36:08 AM

Bullish swing trade call adjustment alert (stop/target) for the Barrick Gold ABX Dec. $30 Calls (ABX-LF)

Establishing a stop at $31.20 in the underlying, and lowering target to $32.35 from $33.00.

Keene Little : 11/30/2006 10:18:08 PM

Friday's pivot tables: Link and Link (includes the new monthly pivots).

OI Technical Staff : 11/30/2006 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 7:27:51 PM

I've got to get ready for a dinner appointment. I'll update OPEN and November trade blotter later this evening when I get back.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 7:27:21 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 7:16:55 PM

That LU/ALA volume may explain today's TRIN action for sure.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 7:13:13 PM

GM $29.23 -0.91% ... was heavy too at 87.3 million

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 7:15:11 PM

LU $2.55 -0.77% ... I'm showing LU churned what looks to be a single-day record volume of 995.8 million. OK... makes sense as today marks completion of merger with Alcatel (ALA) $13.28 +0.22%, which churned 31.6 million.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 7:03:43 PM

NYSE Seeks To Change Stock-Trading Fees; Eliminates Cap

DJ- The New York Stock Exchange said it is moving to eliminate a "cap" that now limits the transaction fees that member securities firms pay to the exchange each month.

While the pricing changes announced by the Big Board on Thursday include increases in fees, NYSE Group Inc. (NYX) Chief Financial Officer Nelson Chai said other changes will offset the increases so that a majority of firms actually would see a reduction in their "all-in cost of trading here." He said the changes wouldn't boost the NYSE's revenue in the near term.

The cap, now at $750,000 a month, was raised only recently as part of a summer fee overhaul in which the NYSE sought to clarify its pricing and better profit from increases in trading activity on its market. But the NYSE said Thursday that it will eliminate the cap starting Friday.

The NYSE also is raising its per-share fees on equity transactions to $0.000275 from the current $0.00025. The exchange said it filed a pricing-change proposal for immediate effectiveness with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

Chai said the pricing changes would be "revenue neutral" in the short term, but "will enhance our ability to attract share volume in our listed stocks and will allow us to capture incremental revenue as volume grows."

To soften the blow of the transaction-fee increase, the NYSE said it is also eliminating specialists' commissions on their assigned NYSE securities, including exchange-traded funds. Specialists are the elite auctioneer trading firms that handle assigned NYSE stocks on the exchange floor. Getting rid of these commissions "will generally lead to a lower effective trading cost" for the exchange's customers "when compared to the current structure," the NYSE said in a statement.

To help the specialists, the NYSE said it will put in place a program to share transaction revenue with the firms and also will cut their fixed costs by eliminating certain fees.

Prices for trading on NYSE Arca, an electronic market also owned by NYSE Group, will remain unchanged.

Earlier Thursday, NYSE Group shares rose 4.5% to $100.10.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 7:00:08 PM

Good Gravy! Just over 4 billion change hands at the NYMEX.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 6:59:02 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 5:53:16 PM

Building/Building Products Bullish % (BPBUIL) Link ... had to go back to late 2002 to find similar levels of risk found this summer.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 5:43:09 PM

DJUSHB ... WEEKLY Interval bar chart Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 5:38:56 PM

I like that 20-point box for the DJUSHB. Not as noisy. Also ties with a Weekly Interval bar chart's trends and check out a conventional retracement from the all-time high to recent low. Until it gives a "sell signal," tie in that 900.00 bullish vertical count with a 61.8% retracement.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 5:24:08 PM

DJUSHB 5-point chart Link

10-point Link

and a 20-point Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 5:21:21 PM

Dow Jones Home Construction (DJUSHB) 728.75 +5.69% Link closes above both its 200-day SMA and 200-day EMA.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 4:28:53 PM

So true Keene ... ride the wave as long as it lasts, or follow the herds as a play on words. Once sellers take control and the internals and price tops, a wise old bull always uses stops.

Keene Little : 11/30/2006 4:19:06 PM

Yep, you're right Jeff. This wave has been building and building. The north shore of Oahu has nothing on this market right now. But Lord help the poor soul who falls off the top of this wave. Those coral reefs are only a few inches below the surface at the bottom of the wave.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 4:15:44 PM

YM 12,249

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 4:14:22 PM

I know some "wavers" from September that sure hope so Keene. (wink, wink)

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 4:12:29 PM

Like I said late last night ... quiet trade. ;-)

DIA $122.29 -0.03% ...

SPY $140.47 (unch)

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 4:10:40 PM

DIA $122.31

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 4:09:29 PM

YM 12,251

Keene Little : 11/30/2006 4:08:44 PM

It won't matter much Jeff where monthly pivot is. By the time we get well into December YM will be below its monthly S2 at approx. 11800 anyway (wink).

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 3:59:34 PM

YM close of 12,250 would have pivot at 12,209

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 3:58:36 PM

I think I angered some bears ... YM 12,250

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 3:55:40 PM

YM 12,260 ... back to test WEEKLY S1.

Keene Little : 11/30/2006 3:53:40 PM

Instead of a sideways consolidation that will lead to another rally leg I'm definitely getting the feeling we're forming ascending wedges for the rally off Tuesday's low. It would be a fitting end to this on-forever rally. I'll show a couple of examples in tonight's Wrap. I don't think we've seen the highs yet but I do think, based on this pattern, that we've only got another push to go and that will be it. SPX looks like it will make a new high but the DOW will probably truncate and not beat last week's high.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 3:53:28 PM

Forecasting a $31.50 close for ABX ... MONTHLY Pivot Levels ... $26.85, $29.17, Piv= $30.41, $32.73, $33.97.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 3:49:24 PM

Barrick Gold (ABX) $31.47 +3.99% ... daily interval bar chart with retracement(s) at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 3:45:28 PM

Barrick Gold (ABX) $31.42 +3.83% ... threatens to close above 50% retracement of 05/11/06 intra-day high and 06/14/06 intra-day low.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 3:43:14 PM

CDE looks like it wants to ring up a WEEKLY R2 ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 3:42:37 PM

A YM close of 12,275 gets a pivot of 12,217

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 3:39:56 PM

Forecasting a MONTHLY close of 12,300 ... MONTHLY Pivot Levels for December in the YM would be ...

11,831, 12,066, 12,225, 12,460 , 12619.

MONTHLY Pivot look familiar?

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 3:36:19 PM

YM 60-minute interval chart Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 3:33:25 PM

YM 12,292 ... what's a short goin to do? Now without trend he's got no friend except asses risk to 12,322

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 3:30:11 PM

NYX $99.57 +3.98% Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 3:29:25 PM

Swing trade call option alert ... for one (1) of the NYSE Group NYX Dec. $100 Calls (NYX-LT) at the offer of $4.20. Stop $95.00, target $110.

Keene Little : 11/30/2006 3:24:19 PM

There might be an effort to tag YM's pre-market high of 12290.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 3:23:24 PM

Speaking of volume ... check out SIRI $4.26 last 10 minutes.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 3:20:01 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 11/30/2006 3:18:44 PM

The DOW is now into its resistance zone of 12265-12270. It's a good place to try a short (YM 12283 here) and see if we get a pullback into the close. Stop would be at 12303.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 3:11:19 PM

I feel some pressure in this ABX option chain.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 3:10:33 PM

Look at that volume spike in ABX right here $31.25. What'd we pay for those $30's?

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 3:09:12 PM

Coeur d'Alene Mines (CDE) $5.40 +4.24% ... sticks its head above WEEKLY R1

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 3:02:27 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Keene Little : 11/30/2006 2:48:31 PM

The DOW will also retest its broken uptrend line from July, again, at 12265. It's amazing the relative strength of the SPX as compared to the DOW the past few days. We have SPX about to challenge last week's high whereas the DOW is struggling with its 62% retracement of the decline since that high, here at 12251.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 2:46:33 PM

again ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 2:46:26 PM

BEARS look to be in some trouble

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 2:46:06 PM

BIX.X down just a fraction 393.84

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 2:45:39 PM

YM 12,272 ... testing that trend here.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 2:44:38 PM

YM does have a short-term downward trend from last Wednesday's high to this morning's gap morning high. Just tested within last 15-minutes.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 2:43:29 PM

That's why I had an itchy trigger finger on the long at 12,238. It traded 12,241, then stalled at an intra-day downward trend.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 2:40:39 PM

May be some day traders playing the h/s top on the five minute intervals, but shoulder broken at WEEKLY S1.

Keene Little : 11/30/2006 2:40:01 PM

Two equal legs up off this morning's low for the DOW is at 12263. That gives us a relatively tight area to watch for a reversal back down.

Keene Little : 11/30/2006 2:38:48 PM

The top of the DOW's expanding triangle that I showed earlier (1:37) is now at 12270.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 2:37:07 PM

Some volume too

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 2:36:26 PM

Oh my! An afternoon high!

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 2:36:03 PM

YM 12,258

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 2:35:49 PM

Buy Program premium

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 2:35:29 PM

YM 12,252

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 2:35:22 PM

I can't type fast/accurate enough for today's action.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 2:34:48 PM

YM 12,242 here.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 2:34:37 PM

should be 12,238

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 2:34:13 PM

YM Long exit alert 12,228

"Two, two, two mints in one!"

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 2:20:54 PM

YM 12,222

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 2:20:19 PM

YM long alert ... for two (2) at 12,222.

Stop 12,200, target 12,242.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 2:17:12 PM

YM ... 12,214 ... gives back WEEKLY S2. Probes primary trend.

Keene Little : 11/30/2006 2:06:07 PM

A little less "wild" of a consolidation pattern is shown here for ES. Again, if this consolidation is to lead to another rally leg higher (vs. chopping higher in an ending pattern), then a pullback to near 1397.50 could set up the next rally leg. I'd want to see MACD stay above the zero line on the 30 and 60-min charts since so far it looks like bearish divergence at today's highs. A break down below 1394 would negate this bullish pattern. Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 2:06:13 PM

Ah heck ... it's the last day of the month ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 2:02:06 PM

End of month squaring? Anything goes and it might as well be a triple witch expiration.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 2:01:33 PM

TRIN 1.20 ... WEEKLY Pivot right here.

I can't figure out a trade at this point.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 2:00:30 PM

TRIN a "surginig" 1.18

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 2:00:06 PM

YM 12,215 ... back below WEEKLY S2

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 1:59:38 PM

YM ... 12,225 after the spike to 12,253

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 1:43:49 PM

YM 12,234 ... "had to be" futures related move. Just don't see individual stock impact.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 1:42:45 PM

Boeing (BA) $88.36 -0.59% ... WEEKLY S1 $88.27 ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 1:41:26 PM

IBM $92.50 +0.92% ... session highs and sitting on top of its WEEKLY S2 ($92.32) ...

Keene Little : 11/30/2006 1:37:35 PM

It's possible we've seen just a 3-wave correction to the rally that started on Tuesday and now up we go in the next rally leg but the internal wave pattern has me thinking we'll see a further consolidation with another pullback before setting up the next leg higher. The pattern for the DOW is looking like an expanding triangle with the top of it near 12268 (cash). It would get pretty wild if this pattern plays out so be aware of the possibility. Link

Jane Fox : 11/30/2006 1:34:10 PM

TRIN on its way up as VIX falls - not in sync however the VIX is in sync with the AD volume. Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 1:33:11 PM

SPY 140.61 +0.09%

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 1:32:37 PM

DIA $122.33 (unch), and WEEKLY S1.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 1:31:34 PM

All majors now in the green

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 1:31:00 PM

BIX.X 392.81 -0.28% ... comes to DAILY Pivot/WEEKLY S1 correlation.

Keene Little : 11/30/2006 1:30:21 PM

LOL, Jeff, I read your post as "...new bagel regs..." and thought this market will rally on anything.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 1:30:04 PM

DJUSHB +5.51% ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 1:28:57 PM

More volume!

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 1:28:32 PM

YM ... 12,243

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 1:28:10 PM

Only "hot news" I see at 01:15 when YM surged is Fed's Bies: New Small Bank Basel Regs Expected "Very Soon"

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 1:26:27 PM

Sure has the look that a short just couldn't take it anymore in the YM

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 1:25:09 PM

YM 12,230 ... coiling at DAILY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 1:23:05 PM

YM 12,231

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 1:22:33 PM

TRIN 0.91 ... still bound between DAILY Pivot and DAILY R1.

Keene Little : 11/30/2006 1:22:14 PM

If we've got the larger sideways consolidation pattern to play out, watch ES 1404.50 for resistance and then the start of another pullback towards 1396 to set up the next rally leg. It could of course launch from here. Nothing would surprise me anymore with this market's ability to rally in the face of bad news.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 1:20:29 PM

BIX 392.51 -0.36% ...

Keene Little : 11/30/2006 1:20:16 PM

My earlier post this morning, "Falling home sales and prices, higher unemployment, recessionary levels for Chicago PMI, higher inflation than the Fed wants to see...hmm, sounds like a reason to rally don't you think? Time for the Fed to do their liquidity push to keep this market afloat."

And you thought I was kidding?

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 1:19:46 PM

BIG volume spike above WEEKLY S2

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 1:19:15 PM

YM ... jumped from primary trend to as high as 12,236 !

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 1:18:24 PM

YM short stopped alert ... at 12,225

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 1:16:47 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 1:14:05 PM

TRIN ... 1.00

YM 12,215

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 1:13:49 PM

TRIN ... 0.90

YM 12,215

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 1:13:03 PM

TRIN ... 1.06

YM 12,211

Jane Fox : 11/30/2006 1:11:20 PM

Very interesting article. Of course I agree so I think this guy is right on. Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 1:09:49 PM

TRIN alert ... 1.08

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 1:09:38 PM

50-pd SMA up at 12,225

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 1:08:59 PM

YM ... 10-minute interval chart ... 21-pd and 200-pd converge here at 12,205.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 1:02:29 PM

01:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 12:59:04 PM

YM 12,203

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 12:58:02 PM

Good Gravy! DJUSHB +4.83% ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 12:55:18 PM

YM ... 12,207

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 12:55:01 PM

Gulp! ... NYSE A/D currently 1,807/1,322

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 12:52:47 PM

YM 12,207 ... back at trend.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 12:52:08 PM

If YM is going to trade 12,140 today, it SHOULD NOT trade above 12,223 again today.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 12:51:12 PM

YM ... with solid "dynamic" and a dashed purple "pulled lower dynamic" (which is what my PROFILED short is trading off of) at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 12:43:45 PM

YM 12,196 ... back under a "pulled down dynamic (0% @ 12,140) 61.8% retracement.

Day traders short does NOT want to see YM leverage here and jump back above WEEKLY S2 like yesterday afternoon.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 12:40:59 PM

YM 12,197 ... back to test DAILY S1.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 12:38:00 PM

YM 12,201 ... undery the intra-day "dynamic" 19.1%

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 12:36:37 PM

YM 12,205 ... pushed back below PRIMARY trend.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 12:35:01 PM

YM 12,210 ... back above PRIMARY longer-term trend.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 12:33:53 PM

GSO.X 186.58 +0.32% ... nearing best levels and its DAILY R1 (186.80)

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 12:32:58 PM

SMH $34.54 +0.81% ... best levels of session.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 12:30:57 PM

BIX 391.79

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 12:30:32 PM

YM 12,208

Keene Little : 11/30/2006 12:29:17 PM

If ES manages to bounce up to 1402, two equal legs up from this morning's low, and then starts to pull back again, it will begin to look like we actually might have a larger consolidation of the rally from Tuesday (rather than a small consolidation of this morning's drop). That would be bullish. The consolidation pattern would call for some more up and down, probably consolidating in a tightening pattern between 1396 and 1402, and if it were to do that then I'd be looking for an upside resolution out of this. Too early to tell but I'll be watching to see if it develops.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 12:10:36 PM

YM 12,198 ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 12:09:37 PM

Jan/Feb Fed Fund Futures 94.77 and 94.79.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 12:08:31 PM

The one supply/demand dynamic an equity traders begins to be alert to is dollar weakness, but Treasury strength, then having equities "starved" for cash.

Is treasury buying defensive, or reflecting future Fed action?

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 12:05:19 PM

YM 12,193 ...

Keene Little : 11/30/2006 12:05:18 PM

A possibility for what we'll see today, and it's still early to get a better feel for this, is a sideways consolidation after this morning's drop. That would tell me we'll get another leg down to match this morning's but we could see a couple of hours or boring chop before then.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 12:04:27 PM

BIX.X ... 5-minute interval chart Link ... with QCharts' DAILY/WEEKLY Pivot levels and short-term trend (dashed green)

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 11:57:54 AM

YM 12,191

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 11:57:32 AM

BIX 391.02 -0.74% ... session low has been WEEKLY S2.

Some pressure with some curve steepening for sure.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 11:55:03 AM

YM 12,185 ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 11:54:47 AM

To get a YM DAILY S2 target, TRIN action gives some guidance ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 11:53:53 AM

TRIN hasn't been able to get a 5-minute close above its DAILY R1 so far today.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 11:53:07 AM

TRIN 0.95 ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 11:51:20 AM

Great observation Keene ... feeling/observing some pressure in here.

Keene Little : 11/30/2006 11:49:34 AM

After getting a bounce off its uptrend line from October 2005, the banks are pulling back towards the line again, currently near 390. BIX is currently trading 390.79 as I type. The daily oscillators look like they could support a stronger bounce up from here but the flip side to the oscillators is that they could flatten out in oversold and indicate a downtrend in progress. This one could provide some important clues as to what's next for the broader market. Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 11:49:01 AM

YM short alert here at 12,182 , stop 12,225, target 12,142

Jane Fox : 11/30/2006 11:46:04 AM

VIX making new daily USUALLY means ES will make new daily lows but you never know nowadays. :)

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 11:30:30 AM

YM ... 5-minute chart where I drag 0% "dynamic" down to 12,140 as if that might be a desiny trade intra-day.

Jane Fox : 11/30/2006 11:29:47 AM

Netlist opened at $7.50, above $7 price

Keene Little : 11/30/2006 11:29:41 AM

If the sellers can overpower the buyers today, gap closure for ES is at 1388.75 which is near a 62% retracement of the 2-day rally at 1389. Gap closure for YM is at 12156 which is below its 62% retracement at 12169.

Jane Fox : 11/30/2006 11:29:28 AM

Netlist (NLST) IPO rises 55 cents to $7.55

Jane Fox : 11/30/2006 11:29:11 AM

Dec. gold trades nearly 7% above the month-ago close

Dec. gold last up $12, or 1.9%, at $647.50/oz in NY

Feb. gold last up $12 at $653.80/oz

Jane Fox : 11/30/2006 11:26:50 AM

YM is the weaker market today. Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 11:26:09 AM

Drag your "dynamic" down some more ... while your doing that, drag it down to DAILY S2 of 12,140. See 50% at WEEKLY S2, 61.8% at DAILY Pivot?

Keene Little : 11/30/2006 11:23:43 AM

Keep an eye on ES 1393 though--that's the uptrend line from July that was broken and then recovered on yesterday's gap up.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 11:23:29 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List at this Link

Jane Fox : 11/30/2006 11:23:14 AM

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Moody's Investors Service said Thursday its ratings outlook for U.S. retail and apparel companies over the next 12 months is negative, with downgrades expected to "modestly outpace" upgrades. The agency said new leverage, either from strategic acquisitions or leveraged buyouts, is leaving many companies vulnerable to any downturn in consumer spending. "A primary driver to our cautious view is that we believe more strategic transactions are possible in retail and that these transactions will add leverage to a number of retail segments," said Moody's Senior Credit Officer Elaine Francolino in a statement.

Keene Little : 11/30/2006 11:20:46 AM

If we get another leg down now, two equal legs down is at ES 1392 which is also a 50% retracement of the past 2-day rally.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 11:16:47 AM

YM short cancel setup (10:12:09) alert ... YM 12,203

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 11:15:45 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 11:10:51 AM

5-10 year spread +0.17

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 11:10:13 AM

5-30 year spread +0.23

Jane Fox : 11/30/2006 11:07:40 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Guidance Software on Thursday said it plans to offer 5 million shares at an estimated price range of $12.50-$14.50 a share in a bid to raise about $68 million in its upcoming initial public offering. The Pasadena, Calif. maker of forensic software for digital investigations plans to trade on the Nasdaq under the symbol GUID.

Keene Little : 11/30/2006 11:03:22 AM

Other than an occasional jab above its broken uptrend line from Tuesday, ES is sliding up underneath this line and it looks like a bear flag here. It should set up another leg down. But we are at the end of the month and we could still see some upside surprises.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 11:02:38 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 10:53:22 AM

YM battles at WEEKLY S2 (12,216) ... 12,222 now.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 10:47:30 AM

Wouldn't it be something to see some rotation back out of equities at high bullish % levels and have some of that cash roll back into hard assets like land, housing, gold, etc?

Keene Little : 11/30/2006 10:46:32 AM

The DJUSHB is hitting its 200-dma here at 715. This is the first resistance level I've been watching and pointing out in each week's Market Wraps. Between here and 734 is trend line resistance and the 38% retracement of this year's decline. We're finally getting close to the point where I'm thinking a short play is setting up in the housing market again.

Jane Fox : 11/30/2006 10:46:30 AM

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- The Energy Department said natural-gas inventories fell 32 billion cubic feet for the week ended Nov. 24. Global Insight expected a decline of 18 billion. Total stocks now stand at 3.417 trillion cubic feet, up 185 billion cubic feet from the year-ago level, and 230 billion cubic feet above the five-year average, the government data said. January natural gas rose 12.9 cents to $8.99 per million British thermal units after reaching an over two-month high of $9.05.

Jane Fox : 11/30/2006 10:46:16 AM

Ballmer: Vista "most significant" launch for Microsoft

Microsoft CEO Ballmer unveils Vista, Office 2007

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 10:44:57 AM

Will have to check in on the CME housing futures ...

Jane Fox : 11/30/2006 10:44:53 AM

But heh Denise 50 WSJ economists said last week the worst was over in the housing market. Looks like you don't agree, as most of didn't.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 10:43:30 AM

I know several people that left prior careers right at the housing "top" to get into the mortgage/realtor business.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 10:42:38 AM

Hang in there Denise!

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 10:42:10 AM

Dow Jones Home Construction (DJUSHB) 713.43 +3.47% ... surging!

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 10:40:42 AM

EIA Weekly Nat. Gas Table Link ... draw of 32 bcf

Keene Little : 11/30/2006 10:40:16 AM

Denise, a reader and a realtor in Phoenix, sent me the following as an update on the housing market there:

Housing is in the toliet here--my realtor friends have no biz. Some are leaving the biz or getting jobs..two lenders closed their doors this week due to loans going bad..preforeclosures are up--this Fed is doing nothing to rescue it. I think far worse ahead..if it does not turn around soon--they need to lower rates to get the buyers off the waiting game. That is what I am seeing in the Phoenix market--huge inventory and builders incentives, and commissions [from builders to realtors] that were 3% are now 4-6% even 10% on some.

Thanks Denise. Good to get input from the "ground pounders". I'll add a comment about the Fed not coming to the rescue--they can't. They're creating an inflationary environment with their excessive cash creation in an effort to keep the economy up. They've made it clear that their #1 priority is to fight inflation. I've read "inside" reports saying the Fed is willing to sacrifice economic growth and accept higher unemployment in order to fight inflation. A reduction in interest rates, imho, is a pipe dream by many.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 10:39:28 AM

U.S. Dollar Index (dx00y) alert WEEKLY S1 (30-min delayed)

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 10:34:08 AM

Baker Hughes (BHI) $73.95 +0.14% ... of its lows of $73.20 on nat gas data.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 10:32:57 AM

StreetTracks Gold (GLD) $64.27 +1.75% ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 10:32:29 AM

Barrick Gold (ABX) $30.89 +2.08% ...

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 10:32:05 AM

AMEX Gold Bugs ($HUI.X) 351.62 +2.40% ... retraces 61.8% of its 05/11/06 intra-day high to 06/13/06 intra-day low. Has broken above bar chart downward trend.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 10:30:32 AM

"dynamic" gets lowered to 12,193. Now some overlap at DAILY Pivot (12,229/12,230)

Keene Little : 11/30/2006 10:27:52 AM

And daiy S1 is 1392.75 so that 1393 could be good for a bounce if you want to try a scalp long from there, or take some money off the table if short.

Keene Little : 11/30/2006 10:26:10 AM

Below potential support at ES 1395 I've got some trend line support at 1393 which is also near the top of yesterday's gap up.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 10:24:54 AM

YM 5-minute bar chart at this Link ... YM now 12,194 so I'd have to drag "dynamic lower" again ... downside risk now assessed to DAILY S2.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 10:17:39 AM

YM traders that utilize my "dynamic" intra-day retracement technique ... drag down the 0% to 12,200 now. See the overlap at 61.8% with WEEKLY S1? 50% now at 12,245. I want to try and short as CLOSE to WEEKLY S1 as possible.

EIA Nat Gas at 10:30.

Jane Fox : 11/30/2006 10:14:18 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. home values increased at an annual rate of 3.5% in the third quarter, the slowest price appreciation since 1998, the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight reported Thursday. Home prices are up 7.7% in the past year. Prices had risen 57% in the previous five years. Prices fell 0.6% in Michigan over the past year. Prices fell from the second quarter to the third quarter in five states: New York, Rhode Island, Michigan, New Hampshire and Massachusetts. Idaho showed the fastest year-over-year growth at 17.5%. Prices fell quarter-to-quarter in more than half of the cities in California. Large price gains were seen in the cities hit by Hurricane Katrina.

Jane Fox : 11/30/2006 10:13:53 AM

Internals agree with going short. Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 10:12:09 AM

YM short setup alert ... look to short the YM on a bounce back to 12,246. Stop goes 12,260 with a target of 12,205.

Keene Little : 11/30/2006 10:10:19 AM

YM hitting support here at 12210 by its uptrend line from Tuesday.

Jane Fox : 11/30/2006 10:10:09 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Business activity in the Chicago region slowed to its lowest level in more than three years in November, according to Chicago purchasing managers index released Thursday. The Chicago purchasing managers index fell to 49.9% in November from 53.5% in October. This is the lowest level since April 2003. The drop surprised economists, who were expecting the Chicago PMI index to rebound slightly to 54.4%. Readings below 50 indicate contraction in the region. The employment index dropped to 49.4% from 57.0%. The prices paid index fell to 60.2% from 62.5% in October. The new orders index fell to 52.0% from 54.1%. Inventories fell to 57.7% vs 67.2%. The deliveries-diffusion index fell to 43.0% from 54.1%. This is the lowest since March 2001.

Jane Fox : 11/30/2006 10:09:50 AM

*NYSE volume 224M
*NYSE has 1,448 advancers
* NYSE has 1,232 decliners
* NYSE has 200 issues unchanged
* NYSE has 187 issues setting 52-week highs
* NYSE has 5 issues setting 52-week lows
* Nasdaq volume 291M
* Nasdaq has 1,110 advancers
* Nasdaq has 1,353 decliners
* Nasdaq has 165 issues unchanged
* Nasdaq has 50 issues setting 52-week highs
* Nasdaq has 8 issues setting 52-week lows

Keene Little : 11/30/2006 10:09:25 AM

Falling home sales and prices, higher unemployment, recessionary levels for Chicago PMI, higher inflation than the Fed wants to see...hmm, sounds like a reason to rally don't you think? Time for the Fed to do their liquidity push to keep this market afloat.

Jane Fox : 11/30/2006 10:06:52 AM

OFHEO home prices up 7.7% in past year

U.S. home prices growing at slowest pace in 8 years

Keene Little : 11/30/2006 10:06:43 AM

That's a big red candle. Watch for potential support at yesterday's pullback--near ES 1395 and YM 12190.

Jane Fox : 11/30/2006 10:06:29 AM

Home prices fall in 5 states in third quarter, OFHEO says

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 10:06:09 AM

YM has fallen quickly from WEEKLY S1 to WEEKLY S2 in just 5-minutes.

Jane Fox : 11/30/2006 10:05:58 AM

Oct. help-wanted index up 1 point to 30

Jane Fox : 11/30/2006 10:05:51 AM

Q3 OHFEO home price index up 3.45% annualized

Jane Fox : 11/30/2006 10:05:45 AM

Nov. Chicago PMI 49.9% vs 54.4% expected

Jane Fox : 11/30/2006 10:05:13 AM

AD line -181 and AD volume to new daily lows so these two are bearish as well.

Jane Fox : 11/30/2006 10:04:38 AM

Getting some real selling now.

Jane Fox : 11/30/2006 10:03:56 AM

VIX to new daily highs confirming ES's new daily lows. At least the VIX Is working.

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 10:03:31 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 11/30/2006 10:00:56 AM

iShares Silver (AMEX:SLV) $138.70 +2.22% ... retraces 80.9% of its 05/11/06 high close to 06/13/06 low close.

Keene Little : 11/30/2006 9:59:30 AM

Just enough of a push higher to trigger stops and then plunge lower. They're selling into rallies here but obviously it's difficult to hold onto a trade unless you're willing to open up your stops--trade smaller with wider stops in this environment.

Jane Fox : 11/30/2006 9:57:22 AM

TICKS +1000.

Jane Fox : 11/30/2006 9:52:46 AM

Yesterday really made me mad. That was not a normal market.

Jane Fox : 11/30/2006 9:52:17 AM

One needs a caveat with each comment you make about this market lately. It is not playing fair.

Jane Fox : 11/30/2006 9:51:29 AM

TICKS +800 and AD volume to new daily highs. Not a time to go short as far as the internals are concerned.

Keene Little : 11/30/2006 9:49:06 AM

SPX also closed its gap from November 27th, after missing it by a few pennies yesterday. The close on November 26th was 1401.44 and this morning's high is 1410.52. This also makes for a good place for your stop--if we continue higher after this pullback it's tough to tell how high it will go. First target would be the overnight highs in the futures. Starting back up as I type so we'll see what happens.

Keene Little : 11/30/2006 9:45:56 AM

DOW did a perfect tap against that 12250 resistance so if you shorted YM at that point you should now have your stop set a few ticks to a new high this morning, so at 12271.

Jane Fox : 11/30/2006 9:41:56 AM

TRIN falling to new daily lows and at 0.63 the bears are not in the driver's seat.

Jane Fox : 11/30/2006 9:35:51 AM

Ad line +303 and climbing. AD volume above 0 and climbing. The bulls have the ball but do not have field advantage.

Keene Little : 11/30/2006 9:33:26 AM

Keep an eye on the DOW this morning--if it rallies up to 12250 that's where its broken uptrend line from July is currently located and could be a good place to try a short on YM, which should be about 12270. Its overnight high was 12290.

Keene Little : 11/30/2006 9:21:09 AM

Futures have pulled back to flat after a bullish overnight session. The high unemployment claims and higher core inflation rate than the Fed wants to see makes for a combination that is not market friendly. The question now is whether or not we'll see the market head back up and retest the overnight highs, or even continue higher, or start a pullback to correct the past 2-day rally.

As Jane mentioned, yesterday was strange and I don't know if it's an end of month push, more Fed money fighting an underlying urge to sell, or what. Ideally we'll get a test of the overnight high in order to reduce risk for a short entry. I want to see what kind of pullback we get next--it could turn into the next leg down or it might be just a pullback correction before heading higher. The short term price pattern has become muddy and I'm hoping that will clear up in the next day or so.

Jane Fox : 11/30/2006 9:20:08 AM

Here is how the commodities I watch and TBonds traded overnight. Please be aware Gold is now trading the February contract. Link

Jane Fox : 11/30/2006 9:16:50 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures rallied early Thursday as the dollar fell to a 14-year low against the British pound, while a bigger-than-expected rise in core inflation data burnished the metal's appeal as an inflation hedge.

Gold for December delivery was last up $8.50 at $644 an ounce. The benchmark contract closed lower Wednesday as traders weighed mixed economic data on the health of the U.S. economy and as the dollar won back some ground against the euro.

That trend reversed on Thursday with the dollar falling against all its major rivals, especially sterling, on continued concerns the U.S. economy will grow at a rate more slowly than other countries.

There was further support in data showing core inflation rose slightly faster than expected, at 0.2%, in October. This kept the year-over-year gain in the core personal consumption expenditure price index at 2.4%, well above the Federal Reserve's implied cap of 2%.

Jane Fox : 11/30/2006 9:15:50 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The number of U.S. workers applying for jobless benefits climbed by the highest amount in more than a year last week, to 357,000, the Labor Department said Thursday.

First time claims for state unemployment benefits rose by 34,000 to 357,000 for the week ending Nov. 25. The rise in claims is up from a revised 323,000 the prior week, the Labor Department said.

Initial claims are the highest since Oct. 8, 2005.

Higher levels of initial claims are not unusual at this time of year, when some employers close down for Thanksgiving and other holidays.

The four-week average of new claims, considered a more accurate indicator because it smoothes out events like holidays and strikes, rose by 7,250 to 325,000 for the week ending Nov. 25.

Meanwhile, the number of workers continuing to collect unemployment benefits jumped by 45,000 during the week ending Nov. 18, to 2.48 million. The four-week average of continuing claims also rose, by 18,750 to 2.45 million.

Jane Fox : 11/30/2006 9:14:54 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Real consumer spending in the U.S. rose 0.4% in October following two lukewarm months, the Commerce Department reported Thursday.

Core inflation rose slightly faster than expected at 0.2%, keeping the year-over-year gain in the core personal consumption expenditure price index at 2.4%, well above the Federal Reserve's implied cap of 2%.

Economists had been expecting core prices to rise just 0.1%, according to a survey conducted by MarketWatch.

With gasoline prices falling in September and October, overall consumer prices are up 1.5% in the past year, the lowest inflation rate in four years.

Nominal incomes rose 0.4%, the weakest growth since June, and a tenth lower than expected. However, with prices falling 0.2%, real (inflation-adjusted) after-tax incomes rose 0.6%, the second-best growth in more than a year.

Nominal spending increased 0.2 in October, a tick higher than the 0.1% expected. Nominal spending in September was revised lower to negative 0.2% from 0.1%.

Jane Fox : 11/30/2006 9:09:48 AM

Good morning all. Since the equity markets closed strong yesterday and near their daily highs it was no huge feat for them to break their respective PDHs overnight, which they all have done. Link

Yesterday was a totally bizarre day. The bulls were blindsided by the sell programs and just as soon as the bears thought they had control of the ball they were blindsided by buy programs. I never saw the sell programs coming because the internals were so bullish. I have seen many many days like this in the past and when the internals are as strong as they were the buying just never stops so I was playing the odds and the odds were that the bulls would retain control of the ball. Then once they lost that control I just quit watching the internals because I knew there was more to the markets yesterday than I was able to see.

A case in point; how many days have you seen +1000 TICKS reading along with -800 TICKS reading?

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