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OI Technical Staff : 12/1/2006 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

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Jeff Bailey : 12/1/2006 9:48:29 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

The Barrick Gold ABX Dec $30 Calls (ABX-LF) were stopped at the bid of $1.45 when ABX traded $31.20.

Jeff Bailey : 12/1/2006 9:40:01 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/1/2006 9:33:12 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/1/2006 4:43:02 PM

DaimlerChrysler Nov. U.S. Sales Up 5%

DJ-DaimlerChrysler AG (DCX) on Friday posted a 4.7% rise in November U.S. auto sales to 186,835 cars and trucks.

Analysts polled by Thomson First Call had expected to see a 1.1% decline. The Chrysler side handed in a 2.9% increase to 164,556, benefiting from the launch of 10 all-new vehicles in 2006.

In the luxury Mercedes-Benz group, sales surged 20.8% to 22,079 vehicles, due primarily to strength in its light-truck lineup.

Jeff Bailey : 12/1/2006 4:41:12 PM

Ford Nov. U.S. Sales Down 9.6%

DJ- Ford Motor Co. (F) on Friday posted a 9.6% decline in November U.S. auto sales to 182,259 cars and trucks.

The car side showed a 2.6% retreat while truck sales fell 12.9%.

The Lincoln and Volvo brands turned in double-digit improvements while Jaguar continued its trend of plunging sales, down 35.2% to only 1,256 cars.

Ford said it plans to build 620,000 vehicles in the fourth quarter, down 15,000 units from prior forecasts.

In the first quarter 2007, Ford plans to produce 750,000 cars and trucks, which the automaker said is consistent with the high end of its prior targets.

Ford earlier said first-half 2007 production would be down 8% to 12% from a year ago.

Jeff Bailey : 12/1/2006 4:38:56 PM

GM Nov. Sales 297,556, Up 5.8%

DJ- General Motors Corp. (GM) on Friday posted a 5.8% rise in November U.S. auto sales to 297,556 cars and trucks.

The car side handed in a 7.9% slide to 109,985 units, but light trucks jumped 16.6% to 183,573 on the strength of its new GMT900 lineup.

The GMC brand showed the biggest gains, up 30.1% to 37,440 trucks.

GM also said its first-quarter production plans are off 9% from a year ago, mainly because of the automaker's move away from rental fleet sales.

Jeff Bailey : 12/1/2006 4:34:52 PM

What is it about "2" with the YM lately? YM 12,222

Jeff Bailey : 12/1/2006 4:26:31 PM

Will give this a shot ... $0.20 box chart of DIA Link

DIA closes $122.05.

Keene Little : 12/1/2006 4:08:11 PM

Monday I'll be watching to see if ES finds resistance again at its downtrend line from last week's high, at 1400.50 (nearly there), or if instead it heads back up for another test of its broken uptrend line from Tuesday's low, currently approaching 1406. Pretty crazy market to figure out here. Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/1/2006 4:05:47 PM

I think several did as there were 86 traded, now 92 and only saw $1.65

Jeff Bailey : 12/1/2006 4:04:59 PM

I got a cross fill at $1.65 on the DAW-NP

Jeff Bailey : 12/1/2006 4:04:04 PM

VIX 11.78 +7.97% ...

VXO 11.44 +10.4% ...

Keene Little : 12/1/2006 4:02:18 PM

One of the reasons I say we'll be left guessing as to what happens Monday is due to the wave pattern in the pullback from yesterday's high. Right now it's just a 3-wave pullback and that's corrective and suggests a new high will be next on the agenda. But if this afternoon's bounce is just a correction to the leg down from today's high then we could have a very bearish EW pattern setup for Monday--the kind that gaps down and runs a lot lower. It's too hard to tell from here and therefore too risky making a bet over the weekend. Flat is a good position.

Jeff Bailey : 12/1/2006 4:01:44 PM

DIA trades for another 15-minutes.

DIA $121.94 DAWNP $1.55 x $1.70.

Jeff Bailey : 12/1/2006 4:00:05 PM

Swing trade put alert ... for one (1) of the Dow Diamonds DIA Feb07 $120 Puts (DAW-NP) at the offer of $1.70

DIA $121.93

Jane Fox : 12/1/2006 3:48:33 PM

PDL have been left in the dust now.

Jane Fox : 12/1/2006 3:47:22 PM

Here is McMillan Weekly commentary.

A minor corrections of sorts occurred in the last week. Once again, it was a 2-day affair, not lasting long enough to generate sell signals from our technical indicators. So, once again, we continue to view this market bullishly.

$SPX continues to remain within its uptrending channel. During the correction, it probed down to 1377, near the bottom of that channel, and then rebounded. So, we can safely say that the 1375-1380 area represents support on $SPX. The subsequent rally was aided by month-end window dressing, and most of it occurred on the day before month-end (Wednesday, November 29th, in this case). On the actual month-end, there were fairly heavy sell programs at the close. Those prevented $SPX from making new highs. Hence, one might say there is short-term resistance at 1408, the recent high on $SPX. If the recent past is any guide, though, that will shortly be overcome.

The equity-only put-call ratios continue to remain on buy signals, as they generally are still trending lower. The 2-day correction did force them to 'blip' upward, but that has now been overcome as they are making new lows once again -- and that's bullish. These important indicators will remain bullish unless they roll over and begin to trend higher.

Market breadth (advances minus declines) is the only indicator that gave a sell signal during the correction. But, breadth switched camps with a vengeance during Wendesday's strong rally. This leaves the breadth oscillators in overbought territory once again. They would only give sell signals if breadth began to turn negative again.

Finally, the volatility indices ($VIX and $VXO) spiked up briefly -- but rather sharply -- during the correction. In fact, $VIX advanced for 3 consecutive days, which is often the beginning of a sell signal. However, in looking at the chart of $VIX, we would not call it a 'sell' unless $VIX closed above 13. That has not yet happened. Since the rally resumed, $VIX fell back towards its lows near 10. Thus, it remains in an overbought state, but the market can rally while $VIX is in that state.

In summary, the market remains in an intermediate-term uptrend, but since breadth and volatility have returned to overbought levels, the possibility of another sharp, but short-lived correction is possible at any time. This is the same opinion that we've held for quite some time.

Jeff Bailey : 12/1/2006 3:46:00 PM

I don't think it can, I don't think it can

Jane Fox : 12/1/2006 3:45:37 PM

TICKS +1000. Rescue team is out in full force now.

Keene Little : 12/1/2006 3:45:34 PM

The last of the shorts should have been shaken out of the trees on this spike up into the close. It will leave us guessing which way this will head Monday morning.

Jeff Bailey : 12/1/2006 3:45:21 PM

YM 12,186

Jane Fox : 12/1/2006 3:45:21 PM

Markets are now testing their PDLS (except NQ that is)

Jeff Bailey : 12/1/2006 3:38:53 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

Keene Little : 12/1/2006 3:31:21 PM

It's looking much more likely that we'll see SPX at least parked on its July uptrend line at 1394, if not pushed back above it. Nice manipulated rally higher into the end of the day. Easy to do during a lighter volume period like a Friday afternoon.

Keene Little : 12/1/2006 3:31:38 PM

ES is hitting its downtrend line from yesterday's high at 1394. YM's is slightly higher at 12173. Watch the head fake break for ES but I wouldn't want to see if get above 1396 if you want to give it a little extra room.

Jeff Bailey : 12/1/2006 3:14:37 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/1/2006 3:02:20 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Keene Little : 12/1/2006 3:00:25 PM

I see that NQ found support at its uptrend line from July, right at its 1762.50 low. The DOW and SPX have broken their uptrend lines (and for SPX it broke it for a 2nd time this week). That uptrend line for SPX is currently near 1394. I woudn't be surprised to see a late-day push to get it parked on the trend line for the close. That way it would keep both sides guessing for Monday. That would take ES up to about 1396 and should have everyone out of their short positions. In the meantime, let price prove it can break today's downtrend line.

Keene Little : 12/1/2006 2:50:29 PM

As Jane likes to point out, the a-d volume and issues are not yet suggesting selling pressure is waning. I don't see enough bullish divergences at the lows yet to tell me I should be thinking of reversing long. Staying short until some more bullish signs start showing up. The risk, as always, is for some buy programs to come out of nowhere.

Keene Little : 12/1/2006 2:47:02 PM

If the drop continues then the next downside target I'm looking at is where we'd have two equal legs down from yesterday's high--ES 1384 and YM 12066. Before that 12066 though is Tuesday's low of 12094.

Jeff Bailey : 12/1/2006 2:44:26 PM

SPY 139.09 ... YM 12,114

Jeff Bailey : 12/1/2006 2:43:43 PM

VIX ... 12.28

Keene Little : 12/1/2006 2:40:04 PM

Got the gap closure for ES and tagged 12126 for YM. It's a good place to take some money off the table if you trade multiple contracts and just chase your stop lower on the remaining.

Jeff Bailey : 12/1/2006 2:37:56 PM

I'm going to have to start thinking ... dollar weakness and buying of treasuries "defensive"

Jeff Bailey : 12/1/2006 2:35:53 PM

SPY moving into its recent gap from 11/28 close

Jeff Bailey : 12/1/2006 2:35:18 PM

Sell Program Premium ... SPY $139.27 : YM 12,129

Jeff Bailey : 12/1/2006 2:32:41 PM

The BGO, CDE longs weren't too bad either.

Lost too much time in the ABX in my opinion, for a December expiration.

My good friend, fellow trader, and long-time subscriber Guitar George would agree!

Jeff Bailey : 12/1/2006 2:29:49 PM

What "gets to me" this month in my overall blotter is two trades. OATS and LEH. Take out those two trades, and I do "OK."

Best trades of the month without a doubt was the exit on UPS and the close out on those SPY puts.

Jeff Bailey : 12/1/2006 2:26:14 PM

And the bullish % are actually right two times a cycle. Just like clockwork. They tell you when it time to get MORE bullish, or MORE bearish.

True ... the PRICE tops are often found before the bullish % signal more bearish, and the PRICE bottoms are found before the bullish % signal its time to get more bullish.

But its the good stuff in the middle where the money is made!

Jeff Bailey : 12/1/2006 2:20:14 PM

Hey ... YM 12,143

Keene Little : 12/1/2006 2:18:15 PM

A little more aggressively you can pull your stops down to follow the downtrend line from noon. That would currently place your stops near ES 1395.50 and YM 12175 (I always like to use a stop just above the last high that touched the downtrend line).

Jeff Bailey : 12/1/2006 2:18:25 PM

Here's my YM Trade Blotter where a trade blotter can actually be very informative and keep a trader honest, and hopefully, on the right side of the trade, or market Link

I'm the type of trader that doesn't always have a bullish, or bearish view of things (some trader ONLY short, others ONLY buy), as I tend to use supply/demand charts, then pivot levels to try and ascertain what the market is doing and follow the market's guide. Always be a contrarian and it is tough to win.

I've tried to teach traders that they NEED to keep a trade blotter, with targets and stops, as well as dates and points of entry.

So far, it looks like my MAX bullishness has been YM 12,370 from any point in time, and MAX bearishness has been 12,142.

Keene Little : 12/1/2006 2:16:06 PM

On the ES short I recommend lower your stop to 1397 and for YM place it at 12195. That keeps the stops above the downtrend line from yesteday and above the lows of the price consolidation around noon. It would give up a lot of points but I'm trying to stay away from the whipsaws. Watch the downside targets for taking some money off the table though. And as we get closer to those downside targets, pull your stops down a little tighter.

Jane Fox : 12/1/2006 2:12:13 PM

Just like clockwork TICK +1000

Keene Little : 12/1/2006 2:10:10 PM

There's a real battle going on here at the lows. Buyers like the dips, sellers like the rallies.

Keene Little : 12/1/2006 2:07:34 PM

OK, nice little head fake move to the upside and now new lows. Watch for gap closure on ES and YM Fib/daily S2 support at 12126.

Keene Little : 12/1/2006 2:05:23 PM

Now you're scaring me Jeff, going short that many times (wink). Of course I've been bearish the past couple of months while you correctly rode this one higher. A broken clock is correct twice a day and I think my time is coming. And you're welcome for that uptick.

Jeff Bailey : 12/1/2006 2:01:49 PM

Keene ... interesting comment. I was just reviewing my trade blotter of YM trades and noticed that I was seeing a few more YM shorts that I've profiled.

Since November 7 to date, I've profiled 12 YM trades.

7 have been bull, and 5 bear.

Actually, didn't you give me an up-tick today?

:-)

Keene Little : 12/1/2006 1:57:03 PM

Right now the 5-min chart looks like a choppy decline in what could be a small bullish descending wedge. So either this is setting up for a stronger bounce or else the bottom is going to drop out soon. Flip a coin here.

Keene Little : 12/1/2006 1:55:49 PM

ES is still finding support near the top of Wednesday's gap up, at 1392. A drop below it should see a quick close of the gap at 1388.75.

Keene Little : 12/1/2006 1:45:47 PM

Actually when Jeff tries to short this market with me is when I get nervous. :-)

Jane Fox : 12/1/2006 1:45:21 PM

Doesn't happen that often does it Keene. :)

Keene Little : 12/1/2006 1:44:29 PM

Thanks for the reminder Jane, I may need to exit my short position here (wink).

Jane Fox : 12/1/2006 1:42:57 PM

Egads Keene and Jane on the same side.

Jane Fox : 12/1/2006 1:42:27 PM

The internals are telling me the path to least resistance is down. AD volume is making new daily lows and with an AD line at -1032 your highest probability trade is short.

Keene Little : 12/1/2006 1:41:06 PM

I've got some downside Fibs lining up for YM support at 12126. Daily S2 is 12125. So if this manages to push down to there I'd think about taking some money off the table and maybe, depending on how things look there, trying a long play. But first we need to get there. Keep pulling your stop down in the meantime.

Jeff Bailey : 12/1/2006 1:39:56 PM

Hmmmm... USO threatens to Friday close ABOVE a WEEKLY R2 ($53.39) for the first time since July 14.

Jeff Bailey : 12/1/2006 1:36:45 PM

U.S. Oil Fund (USO) $54.58 (unch) ... hanging around the $54.50 bullish exit point from 10/03/06. Almost two months to the day.

Keene Little : 12/1/2006 1:35:16 PM

Semis and small caps making new lows. NQ could be headed to new lows next.

Jeff Bailey : 12/1/2006 1:28:42 PM

MM OPEN Profiles (underlying) ...

RHAT $17.15 -1.43%

ABX $31.16 -0.89% (was stopped this morning at $31.20)

GLD $64.03 -0.55%

SIRI $4.18 -1.87%

BHI $73.55 +0.16%

NYX $98.03 -2.06%

KGC $12.39 -1.11%

Jeff Bailey : 12/1/2006 1:26:29 PM

I'm having to rebuild my MM Profiles portfolio tracker this morning. Got scrambled.

Jeff Bailey : 12/1/2006 1:24:25 PM

House to Vote on Offshore Drilling Bill .. FOX News Story Link

Keene Little : 12/1/2006 1:22:38 PM

ES and YM both got a bounce off the levels where they had two equal legs down so that raises the possibility that we're just going to consolidate near the lows for the rest of the day. It could mean a bounce back up near this morning's high so beware of that possibility here.

I'm hanging onto my short a little longer to see if it rolls right back over to a new low, which would give us another impulsive decline from this morning's bounce. But it needs to turn right back down from here in order to get that. I can't say that I'm feeing terribly confident about the short side right here.

Jeff Bailey : 12/1/2006 1:18:45 PM

01:05 Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 12/1/2006 1:11:50 PM

In order to lower your risk on the short play you can now draw a downtrend line from yesterday afternoon through this morning's bounce high. Just chase your stop lower by keeping it out of harms way from a head fake break above it but try to keep as much of your profit as you can in case this comes whipping back up to new highs for the day. Right now that downtrend line is at ES 1398.75 and YM 12206.

Jeff Bailey : 12/1/2006 1:07:11 PM

01:05 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/1/2006 1:04:45 PM

BIX slips red.

Jeff Bailey : 12/1/2006 1:04:16 PM

Fed's Moskow making comments.

Keene Little : 12/1/2006 1:03:37 PM

Feeling a little better with another leg down here. Now if we're going to just chop up and down near today's lows watch for potential support where we'll have two equal legs down. That would be at ES 1393.25 and YM 12154.

Jeff Bailey : 12/1/2006 1:02:14 PM

IBM loses lows of session $90.96

Jeff Bailey : 12/1/2006 1:01:30 PM

YM 12,170 alert

Keene Little : 12/1/2006 12:56:06 PM

So far I like where ES stopped on this morning's bounce--at the intersection of its broken uptrend line from Tuesday and a downtrend line that I had left on the chart from last week's high. I'll continue to stay short until that last high of 1401.75 is violated. If the broken uptrend line remains resistance with a push higher I could be enticed to short it again but for now I'm obviously hoping the retests of that line are finished. Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/1/2006 12:55:21 PM

BIX.X 393.57 +0.07% ... hanging in there just enough at this point. Still above WEEKLY S1/Daily pivot overlap.

Jeff Bailey : 12/1/2006 12:53:36 PM

YM 12,182 ...

Jeff Bailey : 12/1/2006 12:53:05 PM

Schlumberger (SLB) $68.81 +0.48% ...

Jeff Bailey : 12/1/2006 12:52:21 PM

Baker Hughes (BHI) $73.44 +0.01% ...

Jeff Bailey : 12/1/2006 12:51:59 PM

House GOP Reaches Consensus On Offshore Drilling Bill

Keene Little : 12/1/2006 12:43:52 PM

This move down needs to get going. It's making me nervous. I have no idea why being short makes me nervous in this market (wink).

Jeff Bailey : 12/1/2006 12:41:51 PM

YM 12,187

Jeff Bailey : 12/1/2006 12:41:24 PM

YM sitting on its 5-minute curling higher 21-pd sma.

Jeff Bailey : 12/1/2006 12:40:28 PM

Yesterday afternoon, the YM did get a 5-minute close above its 61.8% dynamic, which did seem to be enough to have buyer (like you and I here in the MM) buying that pullback at WEEKLY S2.

A little different today as YM below WEEKLY S2.

Jeff Bailey : 12/1/2006 12:38:10 PM

YM 12,185

Jane Fox : 12/1/2006 12:36:54 PM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Nvidia Corp. and Advanced Micro Devices Inc, the two largest makers of graphic video cards used in computers, said that they have received subpoenas related to a federal investigation into potential antitrust violations.

In separate statements, the companies said that the U.S. Justice Department has not made any "specific allegations," and both vendors pledged to cooperate in the probe, which relates to graphics processors and video cards.

Nvidia has long been a market leader in the sale of video cards. Many computer users who play graphic-intensive video games on their PCs often add high-end cards such as Nvidia's GeForce and nForce brands to enhance their gaming experience.

AMD, the chief rival of Intel Corp. in the market for computer processors, entered the video-card business with its late October acquisition of ATI Technologies. ATI is Nvidia's main competitor with its Radeon line of graphic cards.

Prices for video cards generally range from $50 to as much as $500.

Keene Little : 12/1/2006 12:33:37 PM

If the current pullback is followed by another push higher then all bearish bets are off. Until that happens though this morning's bounce looks like a correction to the decline from yesterday's high. Stay short until the last bounce high is exceeded.

Jeff Bailey : 12/1/2006 12:30:39 PM

YM 12,200

Jeff Bailey : 12/1/2006 12:30:18 PM

YM 12,195

Jeff Bailey : 12/1/2006 12:28:24 PM

And the pattern of early dips below the MONTHLY Pivot getting bought.

Jeff Bailey : 12/1/2006 12:27:09 PM

YM 12,188 ... you "know where we are" in relation to yesterday's trade. That short at 12,182 that got pushed back higher.

Jeff Bailey : 12/1/2006 12:24:50 PM

YM short close alert 12,194

Jeff Bailey : 12/1/2006 12:21:39 PM

YM 12,184

Jane Fox : 12/1/2006 12:21:38 PM

I wouldn't be getting too bullish the Ad line is still -789.

Jeff Bailey : 12/1/2006 12:19:40 PM

YM short lower stop alert ... to 12,200

YM 12,189

Jeff Bailey : 12/1/2006 12:15:21 PM

YM 12,190

Jeff Bailey : 12/1/2006 12:13:49 PM

YM 5-minute interval chart at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/1/2006 12:08:01 PM

Monitor 12,187/12,188 near-term. That's DAILY S1/dynamic 38.2% overlap.

Keene Little : 12/1/2006 12:06:58 PM

OK, nice kiss goodbye for YM. If you shorted it there (I jumped back in), move your stop to 3 ticks above that high, so now at 12231. A stop on an ES short can be placed 2 ticks above so 1402.25. Daily pivot for ES is at 1402.50 so there's risk to that level.

Jeff Bailey : 12/1/2006 12:05:35 PM

YM ... 12,196 ... slips back below MONTHLY Pivot (12,208) and 50% dynamic 12,204.

Jeff Bailey : 12/1/2006 12:02:52 PM

YM short alert ... here at 12,216, stop 12,243, target 12,170

Jeff Bailey : 12/1/2006 12:01:18 PM

YM 12,227

Keene Little : 12/1/2006 12:00:04 PM

YM is back up to its broken uptrend line from Tuesday, at 12220 so here too could be a resistance level (kiss goodbye test).

Keene Little : 12/1/2006 11:59:18 AM

ES is about to tag its 62% retracement at 1402 so that's the next potential resistance level for this bounce.

Keene Little : 12/1/2006 11:58:25 AM

Nope, looks like the bad news bulls are back in town and looking to snap up some bargain prices.

Keene Little : 12/1/2006 11:54:16 AM

YM is hitting its Fib target at 12201 and ES is couple of ticks away from its target at 1400. Look to short it here with a 20 (YM) or 2 (ES) point stop.

Keene Little : 12/1/2006 11:36:04 AM

If the current bounce can get another leg up to where there would be two equal legs up off the this morning's low, that gives us ES 1400 and YM 12201. These levels also at a 50% retracement of ES's decline and a 38% retracement of YM's. We might just chop up and down near the lows instead but if we get a bounce to the above levels I'll be watching to short it.

Jeff Bailey : 12/1/2006 11:25:06 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/1/2006 11:05:34 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 12/1/2006 11:04:39 AM

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) - Home Depot Inc. shares rose almost 5% Friday after a newspaper reported that two of the largest private equity firms are preparing a $100 billion buyout of the home-improvement giant.

Fort Worth-based Texas Pacific and New York-based Kohlberg Kravis Robert & Co. are constructing the deal, which would be a record-breaking leveraged buyout, according to The New York Post. Neither of the companies would comment.

The Atlanta-based home-improvement retailer (HD) before easing to $39.24.

Home Depot shares have climbed about 10% in the last two weeks as speculation has increased that private-equity investors were eyeing the company. Still, the stock is below its 52-week high of $43.95 reached in March, and it's 44% under its trading value five years ago.

Jane Fox : 12/1/2006 11:01:48 AM

BOSTON (MarketWatch) -- Amvescap Plc (AVZ) unit PowerShares Capital Management LLLC launched five exchange-traded funds Friday on the American Stock Exchange: PowerShares Financial Preferred Portfolio, PowerShares Dynamic Large Cap Portfolio, PowerShares Dynamic Mid-Cap Portfolio, PowerShares Dynamic Small Cap Portfolio and PowerShares Value Line Industry Rotation Portfolio. The Amex said it now has 216 ETF listings, with 55 from PowerShares.

Keene Little : 12/1/2006 11:01:34 AM

The move down from yesterday afternoon's high looks impulsive. That suggests we now have a downtrend to work with. We're due a bounce after the 5-wave move down and a 38-62% retracement of the drop gives us a zone to watch for resistance to short. For ES that gives us 1397.75-1402. The 30-min 100/130-pma's are near 1397.75 so that's the first level I'd watch for a short play to set up.

Jeff Bailey : 12/1/2006 11:00:56 AM

Bullish swing trade long alert ... for 1/2 position (round to 400 shares) for Kinross Gold (KGC) $12.56 here, stop goes $11.40 to begin, target $14.50.

Jane Fox : 12/1/2006 11:00:51 AM

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Nvidia Corp. (NVDA) shares fell more than 3% Friday after the company said it has received a subpoena from the San Francisco office of the antitrust division of the Department of Justice in connection with the agency's investigation into potential antitrust violations related to graphics processing units and cards. Santa Clara, Calif.-based Nvidia said no specific allegations have been made against the company and that it plans to cooperate with the DOJ in its investigation.

Jane Fox : 12/1/2006 10:51:03 AM

HOUSTON (MarketWatch) -- Americans' ability to cruise big cars along endless blacktop is as iconic as apple pie.

But a new report by a major energy-research group shows that the nation's love affair with driving has cooled somewhat in response to higher gasoline prices.

According to a report published by Cambridge Energy Research Associates, the rate of growth in gasoline demand slowed sharply last year to 0.3% from 1.6% per year from 1990 to 2004. Gasoline demand has picked up this year from the previous one but still trails historical growth rates, rising at a 1% rate during the first 11 months of 2006.

This contrasts sharply with significantly faster rates of growth from 1990 through 2005 in most emerging countries including China (6.6%), India (6.2%) and Brazil (4.5%), said the report. Furthermore, motorists' average mileage dropped for the first time in 25 years.

The drop in gasoline demand neatly coincides with the rise of gasoline prices. Retail-pump prices rose from $1.59 per gallon in 2003 to $2.30 in 2005. Through mid-November of this year, prices have averaged $2.61, hitting a high of $3 in July, according to the report.

What's more, many Americans are doing the once-unthinkable -- foregoing gas-guzzling SUVs for smaller, more fuel-efficient vehicles.

Jane Fox : 12/1/2006 10:48:18 AM

AD line is -1240, this is your field advantage.

Jane Fox : 12/1/2006 10:47:21 AM

These are certainly in sync. Link

Jane Fox : 12/1/2006 10:42:58 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - The New York Stock Exchange is eliminating monthly caps that limit transaction fees it charges member firms.

The move was one of four sweeping changes the NYSE is making to its fee structure. Other changes include the establishment of a flat fee of $0.000275 per share for NYSE-listed securities trading on the Big Board, the elimination of specialist commissions and the implementation of a revenue sharing program.

The changes go into effect today at the NYSE. NYSE Arca transaction pricing remains unchanged.

"Specialist firms ... will experience lower fixed costs and participate in a revenue sharing program that will reward them for providing liquidity to our market," NYSE Group Inc. Chief Financial Officer Nelson Chai said.

Under the revenue sharing plan, specialists will receive a monthly rebate of $0.000275 per share of specialty securities they buy or sell on the exchange. Specialists will also receive a rebate based on their absolute market share in a stock if the share exceeds 35%, according to a regulatory filing.

Keene Little : 12/1/2006 10:36:36 AM

We're slicing through support levels so this sell off could be serious. The top of the gap up on Wednesday is at ES 1392.25, being tested now. Next support is gap closure at ES 1388.75.

Jeff Bailey : 12/1/2006 10:34:32 AM

YM 12,157 ... vulnerable to 12,125-12,115

Jane Fox : 12/1/2006 10:28:11 AM

Pelosi picks Rep. Reyes as House Intelligence chair

Jeff Bailey : 12/1/2006 10:23:56 AM

YM 11/30/06 Closing and Settlement Values for Dec/Mar/June at this Link

Keene Little : 12/1/2006 10:21:27 AM

The market found a bottom and the bad news bulls stepped in around 10:30 AM yesterday. As this drops down towards potential support around ES 1394 and YM 12174, as we near 10:30, watch for a repeat performance.

Keene Little : 12/1/2006 10:14:05 AM

There's also this potential expanding triangle pattern for the DOW that I showed yesterday. Price rallied right up to the top of it and pullbed back sharply. I'm now watching to see if support is found at the bottom of it at 12156. This is a bullish pattern for another leg higher out of this triangle, if that's what's playing out. Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/1/2006 10:10:38 AM

VIX.X 11.50 ... WEEKLY R2 here.

Keene Little : 12/1/2006 10:09:04 AM

A little further down is ES support at 1394.50 at its uptrend line from July.

Jane Fox : 12/1/2006 10:08:32 AM

* NYSE volume 209M
* NYSE has 1,411 advancers
* NYSE has 1,269 decliners
* NYSE has 219 issues unchanged
* NYSE has 229 issues setting 52-week highs
* NYSE has 6 issues setting 52-week lows
* Nasdaq volume 279M
* Nasdaq has 1,195 advancers
* Nasdaq has 1,267 decliners
* Nasdaq has 167 issues unchanged
* Nasdaq has 82 issues setting 52-week highs
* Nasdaq has 21 issues setting 52-week lows

Keene Little : 12/1/2006 10:07:17 AM

But since a slowing economy means the Fed will be quicker to lower rates (I'm not so sure about that), the bad news bulls should step in and buy this. Let's see if it happens again.

Jane Fox : 12/1/2006 10:06:48 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Factory activity in the United States contracted in November for the first time in more than three years, the Institute for Supply Management reported Friday. The ISM index fell to 49.5% in November from 51.2% in October. The decline was unexpected. The consensus forecast of estimates collected by Marketwatch was for the index to rise to 51.8%. Readings below 50 indicate contraction. This is the time the index has been below the 50 threshold since April 2003. New orders fell to 48.7% in November from 52.1% in October. Production fell to 48.5% from 51.9%.

Jane Fox : 12/1/2006 10:06:19 AM

Keene those are the same economist who said the housing industries worries are over.

Keene Little : 12/1/2006 10:05:03 AM

So much for the theory that the Chicago PMI was only a regional problem due to the slowing auto industry. It's now confirmed that the national economy is slowing faster than economists have been predicting. Why am I not surprised.

Jane Fox : 12/1/2006 10:04:13 AM

Dollar falls sharply after weak ISM data

Jane Fox : 12/1/2006 10:03:34 AM

* Nov. ISM new orders 48.7% vs 52.1% in Oct.
* Nov. ISM lowest since April 2003
* Nov. ISM manufacturing index below 51.8% consensus
* Nov. ISM manufacturing index 49.5% vs 51.2% in Oct.

Jeff Bailey : 12/1/2006 10:02:41 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Keene Little : 12/1/2006 10:02:40 AM

ES and YM hitting support here though so watch out for the bad news bulls to step back in and buy this.

Jane Fox : 12/1/2006 10:02:30 AM

I think you may be right Keene.

Jane Fox : 12/1/2006 10:02:02 AM

No ISM numbers yet.

Keene Little : 12/1/2006 10:01:59 AM

I'm guessing the ISM number was not so good.

Jane Fox : 12/1/2006 10:01:30 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Spending on U.S. construction projects dropped by 1.0% in October, as outlays on private residential construction matched a low hit in July 2006, the Commerce Department said Friday. Private residential construction spending fell by 1.9% in October, the latest evidence the U.S. housing market has pulled back sharply. Private construction spending dropped by a sharp 1.5% in October. Spending on private nonresidential construction projects fell by 0.7%. The decline in overall construction spending beat the 0.3% drop expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch.

Jeff Bailey : 12/1/2006 10:01:02 AM

Sell Program Premium

Jane Fox : 12/1/2006 10:00:12 AM

AD volume and TRIN are in sync but the VIX is not and when the VIX is out of sync I pay attention.

Keene Little : 12/1/2006 9:56:17 AM

It looks like a little rotation out of techs and small caps this morning into the big caps. NQ and ER continue to push lower while ES and YM hold basically flat.

Jeff Bailey : 12/1/2006 9:55:27 AM

Home Depot (HD) $39.66 +4.45% ... "hot" this morning.

Jeff Bailey : 12/1/2006 9:49:59 AM

ABX $31.44 (unch) ... ABX-LF $1.65 x $1.75 ... bugger.

Jeff Bailey : 12/1/2006 9:46:50 AM

Will look to roll out an expiration to January on ABX on potential weakness to MONTHLY Pivot of $30.39.

Keene Little : 12/1/2006 9:44:50 AM

NQ and YM got an early pop up and then dropped below their opening price. ES is sitting there not sure which way to go. Now pushing back up as I type. Watch the chop--still looking for an early pullback that could set up a long. But this price action is obviously tough to read.

Jeff Bailey : 12/1/2006 9:39:16 AM

Bullish swing trade calls stopped alert with ABX $31.20 ... ABX-LF $1.45 at the bid.

Jane Fox : 12/1/2006 9:34:54 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- CME Holdings (CME) , parent of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, said Friday its November volume averaged 5.3 million contracts per day, up 28 percent from November 2005. Total monthly volume was 110 million contracts. Average daily volume on the CME Globex electronic trading platform increased 38% from a year ago to 4 million contracts per day. The company said NYMEX volume on its CME Globex system averaged a record 375,000 contracts per day in November, up from 79,000 contracts per day in the second quarter and 175,000 contracts per day in the third quarter.

Jane Fox : 12/1/2006 9:34:09 AM

Both VIX and TRIN open within their PDRs.

Jane Fox : 12/1/2006 9:32:45 AM

AD line in anemic -80 and Ad volume is as close to 0 as it can get. No one has the ball this morning.

Jane Fox : 12/1/2006 9:28:01 AM

The VIX and ES certainly trade inverse to one another. Link

Keene Little : 12/1/2006 9:22:42 AM

The overnight session was bullish until after Europe opened for trading and since then futures have pulled back to the flat line. As I had mentioned late yesterday ideally we'll get a small pullback this morning and then another push higher inside what looks like small ascending wedges. Price action could continue to be choppy and there's just as much potential for an early pullback as for an early rally. We may want to wait until after the 10:00 AM reports to see how the dust settles (Construction Spending and ISM).

Jane Fox : 12/1/2006 9:14:37 AM

All markets stayed within their PDR overnight and are giving no hint as to direction today. Link

Jane Fox : 12/1/2006 9:12:43 AM

I forgot to mention the economic reports out today.

10:00a.m. Oct Construction Spending. Expected: -0.3%. Previous: -0.3%.

10:00a.m. Nov ISM Manufacturing Business Index. Expected: 52.0. Previous: 51.2.

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