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OI Technical Staff : 12/22/2006 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

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Jeff Bailey : 12/22/2006 5:39:36 PM

S&P Depository Receipts (SPY) ... similar WEEKLY Interval chart as QQQQ and DIA with a high Friday close and "pre-bull confirmed" low Friday close from 07/14/06. Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/22/2006 5:39:27 PM

Change In Posture At the close of today's trade, I'm changing my broader market posture as depicted by the S&P 500 (SPX.X) 1,410.76 / SPY $140.75 from Bullish (mid-September) to "Neutral."

Jeff Bailey : 12/22/2006 5:39:14 PM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) $123.18 -0.65% ... similar WEEKLY Interval chart as QQQQ with a high Friday close and "pre-bull confirmed" low Friday close from 07/14/06 close. Link

Note: Horizontal green lines with prices are Monthly Option Expirations.

Keene Little : 12/22/2006 4:14:29 PM

Boxing day...is that what the bears just did to the bulls this week?

I'll add my best wishes for a Merry Christmas, Happy Hanakkah and a joyous long weekend with family and friends. It's what it's all about. Life is short, the market is here all year but time with family and friends is precious little when we look back on our lives. Enjoy the moments this weekend, be safe and we'll see you back here on Tuesday.

Jeff Bailey : 12/22/2006 4:09:50 PM

QQQQ $42.93 -1.03% ... closes a penny below its 19.1% ($42.9406) 07/21/06 to recent 11/24/06 low/high closes.

Chart Link from 11/27/06 Market Wrap Link

Jane Fox : 12/22/2006 4:06:54 PM

Merry Christmas everyone and we will see you all on boxing day. You all know what boxing day is don't you?

Jane Fox : 12/22/2006 4:04:49 PM

Now that the cash markets are closed we get the the selloff I was expecting all day. Go figure!!!!

Jeff Bailey : 12/22/2006 4:02:32 PM

I thought there's be enough bullishness for a YM closer to DAILY S1, but the Grinch rules the day for the most part.

Jeff Bailey : 12/22/2006 4:00:38 PM

Sell Program Premium ... SPY 140.86 : YM 12,428

Jeff Bailey : 12/22/2006 3:56:43 PM

YM long exit alert here at 12,434

Jane Fox : 12/22/2006 3:55:30 PM

A little late but better late than never. Here is McMillan's weekly commentary.

Some serious cracks are beginning to appear in the veneer of this market, but outright broad market sell signals are not yet in effect. The main bullish fact is that $SPX remains in its uptrending channel. As long as that continues, one cannot be bearish on the market, no matter what other technical indicators might be saying 'sell.' The bottom of the $SPX channel has now risen to nearly 1410. So, any close below 1405, say, would be a breakdown and thus a sell signal from the $SPX chart.

Lacking that, the chart pattern would remain bullish.

The equity-only put-call ratios have both given confirmed sell signals. This is an important and very negative intermediate-term development. The first negative clue came when our computer analyses 'predicted' that the ratios were about to roll over. Right on cue, within a few days, both had indeed begun to rise -- the definition of a sell signal.

Market breadth has been poor and sell signals have been generated. These are confirming indicators, and so the combination of put-call ratio sell signals and breadth sell signals is definitely a cause for concern.

Finally, the volatility indices ($VIX and $VXO) remain at or near historically low levels -- trading at 10 or below. As such, they remain in a passive mode: as long as they are low, the market can continue to rise. However, if $VIX were to begin to trend higher, then it would generate a sell signal as well.

In summary, the $SPX chart is bullish, while volatility indices are still supportive, but put-call ratios are breadth have turned negative. There is also a seasonal factor at work: the market is typically bullish and non-volatile as the year winds down. There is a name for this: the Santa Claus rally, which identifies a normally bullish pattern spanning the last 4 trading days of one year and the first 2 trading days of the next year. However, if this period is bearish, then it often implies a more bearish period lies ahead. 'If Santa Claus should fail to call, Bears may come to Broad and Wall.'

Keene Little : 12/22/2006 3:54:45 PM

ES weekly S1 is 1422 also so that's not a bad place to stop today.

Keene Little : 12/22/2006 3:53:53 PM

Instead of parking the DOW at its downtrend line, wondering if it will break to the upside, we may get ES parked on top of its broken downtrend line (just under 1422 right now) wondering if it will give us a bounce on Tuesday.

Keene Little : 12/22/2006 3:51:55 PM

Hmm, a little fear before the weekend.

Keene Little : 12/22/2006 3:48:41 PM

I can't view a YM chart for this afternoon's price action because QCharts seems to think we shouldn't be trading it after 2:00 PM (no more price data after that). So, using the DOW chart you can see that it hasn't quite tested its downtrend line from yesterday yet. It would be a good place to park price by the close (about 12375). At that point it would look like a completed a-b-c bounce off this morning's low and set up a potential decline on Tuesday. Or a gap above and run higher. Or it could go flat. There, all my bases covered. Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/22/2006 3:46:28 PM

YM long finger on the button alert for the two (2) contracts.

YM 12,449

Keene Little : 12/22/2006 3:36:53 PM

ES has broken above its downtrend line so if it now pulls back and finds it to be support, currently near 1422.50 and dropping, then we could get another leg up on Tuesday. So far, and this is a very early call, the bounce looks corrective and supports the idea that we'll get a bounce that stays below ES 1429 before heading for new lows. This also supports the idea that Santa will be a no-show which is the way I've been leaning (way too many people expecting it). Link

It might even get ugly. As one reader (thanks Dave) said, we may be seeing some movie goers leaving the movie during the credits so as to be out of the parking lot before the exits get jammed. With so many expecting they'll take profits in January we could get some early selling to try to beat the crowd. If that thinking picks up momentum, look out below. But that's pure speculation on my part.

Jeff Bailey : 12/22/2006 3:16:37 PM

03:00 Internals at this Link

Keene Little : 12/22/2006 3:15:53 PM

Trying to put patterns around slow price action is not always helpful but if ES stays stalled under 1425, it looks like a small ascending wedge for today's bounce (and getting a little throw-over the top here). A drop back down could see new lows if this is a small 4th wave correction to the decline. But a continuation higher would look like a legitimate break of the downtrend line from yesterday's high.

Jane Fox : 12/22/2006 3:13:14 PM

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Innotrac Corp. (INOC) on Friday said the Securities & Exchange Commission is investigating a "totally false" press release from Dec. 20. The press release, which Innotrac said it did not originate, indicated that the company had signed a multiyear, multimillion dollar customer service and technical support agreement with the Siemens (SI) Information and Communication Mobile Group. Innotrac, an Atlanta-based logistics provider, said it is cooperating with the SEC's investigation.

Jeff Bailey : 12/22/2006 3:12:08 PM

03:00 Market Watch at this Link

Keene Little : 12/22/2006 2:57:41 PM

As I study the pullback that we've had so far this week, trying to pull out clues as to whether it's just a pullback or the start of something bigger to the downside, this SPX 60-min chart shows what I'll be watching. Link

First of all the drop from Monday's high is only a 3-wave move, and that means it is so far just a corrective pullback. The bears need to see a consolidation that matches Tuesday's bounce (probably in more of a sideways/up kind of bounce that chews up time) followed by another low, thus creating a 5-wave move down.

Bears also want to see SPX break below 1407, the bottom of a potential parallel up-channel for price action since November, and especially below 1404 to get below the December 8th low. But if we get a 5-wave move down that finds support at 1408 that would set up a multi-day bounce that definitely should be shorted.

The bulls want to see this pullback stay a 3-wave move. Any rally back above 1430 from here would confirm that and would suggest to me that we could see a move up to the 1440 area, if not higher. I don't see that as a possibility here but I didn't think we'd be rallying this long and this high as it is so take my opinion on that fwiw. As someone who is in longer term short positions I will become more worried with a rally back above 1420 but until then I'm holding my shorts (literally and figuratively).

Jeff Bailey : 12/22/2006 2:48:34 PM

TRIN 1.15

YM 12,443

Jeff Bailey : 12/22/2006 2:48:05 PM

YM long entry alert for an addition contract here at 12,443

Jeff Bailey : 12/22/2006 2:39:42 PM

NYSE a/d 1,175/2,012

Jeff Bailey : 12/22/2006 2:38:42 PM

TRIN 1.18

YM 12,439

Keene Little : 12/22/2006 2:28:20 PM

ES 1424.50 just got tagged so this would be the place to try a short, stop no more than 1426.50. In fact if it breaks above 1424.50 and comes right back down to retest its broken uptrend line, and holds above, I'd be looking to get out of the short and switch long. The bottom line right now though is that we have lethargic trading on this Friday afternoon before a holiday weekend. Do you really want to trade this stuff? Many traders have already started their long weekend.

Jane Fox : 12/22/2006 2:15:11 PM

Flights resume at Denver Airport after two-day shutdown: AP

Jane Fox : 12/22/2006 2:13:33 PM

Just no conviction on either side but the internals remain bearish.

Keene Little : 12/22/2006 1:56:04 PM

Two equal legs up in ES's bounce off this morning's low is at 1424.50 which is also where its downtrend line from yesterday is currently located. That could be a good short play setup there. Otherwise a break above that level means a break of the downtrend and a bigger bounce in progress.

Jeff Bailey : 12/22/2006 1:51:47 PM

I hear bells, they're a ringin ...

Jane Fox : 12/22/2006 1:50:55 PM

Although I said I was not going to use the TRIN today I would like to make note that it is now at a new daily high. This is not bullish folks.

Jeff Bailey : 12/22/2006 1:50:35 PM

Boy do I need some holiday spirit.

Jeff Bailey : 12/22/2006 1:50:14 PM

YM 12,437 ... need some holiday spirit.

Jeff Bailey : 12/22/2006 1:29:57 PM

YM 12,431 after near re-test of DAILY S2. WEEKLY 38.2% right here too and needs to hold.

Jeff Bailey : 12/22/2006 1:28:53 PM

Not good YM 12,430

Jane Fox : 12/22/2006 1:27:22 PM

I am not using the TRIN today - as you saw in my last post, it is flat and neutral and not giving us any hints or confirmations today as opposed to yesterday when it was the canary in the mine.

Jane Fox : 12/22/2006 1:25:32 PM

I see Jeff is trying a long position but I truly don't think we have too much upside from here. As a matter of fact I think we are going to see new daily lows. Sorry Jeff. Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/22/2006 1:19:28 PM

YM long entry alert here at 12,441, stop 12,425, target 12,465.

Jeff Bailey : 12/22/2006 1:15:40 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/22/2006 1:02:35 PM

01:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jane Fox : 12/22/2006 1:00:34 PM

The only thing that will help the bulls is a little thing called the "Rescue Team" but I think it has gone to the Hamptons for Christmas. Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/22/2006 12:58:20 PM

TRIN 1.17 ... high so far 1.35

Jeff Bailey : 12/22/2006 12:57:30 PM

YM long cancel order alert at this time YM 12,445

Keene Little : 12/22/2006 12:56:16 PM

ES has dropped down in a parallel down-channel from the high and now we should be ready for a bigger bounce. It's possible my wave count is off by one (meaning another low is possible) but the move down from Wednesday's high looks very close to completion, if not already complete as shown on this 15-min chart: Link

Assuming the bottom is in for this leg down we should get some kind of A-B-C bounce. The top of the down-channel, near 1425 could be the first leg up and then we'll get a pullback followed by antoher leg up that breaks the downtrend. It takes a break of the downtrend line to confirm the first leg down (labeled wave-1 on the chart) is complete. Until that happens we're obviously in a downtrend.

Jane Fox : 12/22/2006 12:46:44 PM

I would use this little spurt of buying for getting a better entry on a short.

Jeff Bailey : 12/22/2006 12:39:55 PM

YM 12,446

Jeff Bailey : 12/22/2006 12:39:20 PM

YM long alert ... I did not get the YM long trade (entry 12,438) posted in time. Keep that open for now (no fill) at 12,438.

Jeff Bailey : 12/22/2006 12:37:06 PM

YM long alert here at 12,438, stop 12,420, target 12,460

Jeff Bailey : 12/22/2006 12:34:19 PM

At 12:03 PM EST, the GLD $61.49 +0.17% ... was trading $61.42 ($614.20)

Jeff Bailey : 12/22/2006 12:33:00 PM

CRB Index (CEC:CRY) 308.94 -0.05% ... 30-minute delayed

Jeff Bailey : 12/22/2006 12:32:19 PM

Dollar Index (dxy) alert 83.93 ... sticks its head back above MONTHLY Pivot (30-minute delayed) ...

Keene Little : 12/22/2006 12:16:50 PM

ES is now tagging the bottom of its potential parallel down-channel at 1421 and YM is only 5 points from its 12420 target. This would be the next level I'd watch to get long. Jane's tools (a-d, VIX and TRIN) suggest not going long here so understand this is an attempt to find a bottom. If these levels don't hold then it could get ugly.

Keene Little : 12/22/2006 12:06:38 PM

The COMP's 50-dma at 2402 is getting a workout.

Jeff Bailey : 12/22/2006 12:06:01 PM

TRIN 1.20 at DAILY Pivot

Jeff Bailey : 12/22/2006 12:05:11 PM

YM 12,437 after kiss of DAILY S2 (12,427)

Jane Fox : 12/22/2006 11:59:40 AM

AD volume says we are in for new daily lows.

Jane Fox : 12/22/2006 11:53:37 AM

NOtice how ER is using its PDL as support. Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/22/2006 11:52:19 AM

RESEARCH IN MOTION 3Q REVENUE TOPS VIEWS

DJ- Shares flat after BlackBerry maker reports net income rising 47% to $176 million, or 93c a share. Revenue is up 49% to $835.1 million. Wall Street expected EPS of 94c on revenue of $815.9 million.

RIMM $132.61 -0.81% Link ...

Keene Little : 12/22/2006 11:51:56 AM

COMP 2402 is still holding.

Keene Little : 12/22/2006 11:51:04 AM

ES is showing bullish divergence on the 5-min chart but only if it turns back up here. If it drops lower though, look at going long YM or ES if YM 12420 is tagged. Weekly S2 for ES is at 1422. If all these levels are busted to the downside then it becomes more apparent that the fund managers are throwing in the towel and protecting profits (and not worry about tax gains which many are hoping to put off until January).

Jeff Bailey : 12/22/2006 11:50:35 AM

TOYOTA MAY SURPASS GM IN 2007

DJ- Japanese auto maker is poised to top struggling U.S. giant General Motors as world's biggest auto maker next year, saying it plans to produce 9.42 million vehicles in 2007. Projection exceeds the 9.18 million vehicles that GM is building this year.

Jeff Bailey : 12/22/2006 11:42:13 AM

WALGREEN 1Q NET JUMPS 25%

DJ- Shares rise 1.5% as drugstore chain reports a jump in 1Q net income to $431.7 million, or 43c a share. Sales rise 17% to $12.71 billion, with prescription sales up 18.7%. Results beat analysts' EPS estimate of 41c on sales of $12.55 billion.

WAG $46.72 +1.65% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 12/22/2006 11:40:50 AM

MICRON FISCAL 1Q NET SURGES

DJ- Chip maker reports profit of $192 million, or 25c a share, helped by stronger sales and prices for its memory chips. Sales rise to $1.58 billion. Analysts expected EPS of 20c on revenue of $1.6 billion.

MU $14.06 +4.22% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 12/22/2006 11:39:01 AM

MICHIGAN SENTIMENT INDEX FALLS TO 91.7

DJ- University of Michigan's full-month report on consumer sentiment slips to 91.7 in December from 92.1 the previous month. Preliminary report showed a reading of 90.2. Economists had expected the index to come in at 90.2.

Jeff Bailey : 12/22/2006 11:38:27 AM

US SPENDING GAIN OUTPACES INCOME; INFLATION GAUGE EASES

DJ- Personal spending matches expectations, advancing by 0.5% after rising a revised 0.3% in October. Personal income increases by 0.3% for a second month in a row, slightly less than economists had predicted. Personal consumption expenditures, excluding food and energy, are flat in November. However, the core PCE price index rises 2.2%, slowing from a 2.4% climb in October, but still above the Fed's inflation comfort zone of 1%-2%.

Keene Little : 12/22/2006 11:34:51 AM

The downside risk for ES, if this morning's low doesn't hold, could be to the bottom of a parallel down-channel for price action this week. Currently that's near 1421. If YM has a date with 12420 then this kind of move might happen and is the other place I'd look to play a bounce. Link

Keene Little : 12/22/2006 11:29:38 AM

A retest of the lows here, with bullish divergences, could be a good opportunity to test the long side for a scalp play. Take a nibble and go long ES here at 1423.50 with a stop at 1421.50. The low either holds or it doesn't in which case get out of the way.

Jeff Bailey : 12/22/2006 11:19:49 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 12/22/2006 11:18:31 AM

With the 50-dma for the COMP at 2402 there could very well be a floor here.

Jeff Bailey : 12/22/2006 11:04:14 AM

11:00 Market Watch at this Link

Keene Little : 12/22/2006 11:02:35 AM

NQ got a sharper bounce off this morning's low but has since pulled back more than ES and YM. So far I'm getting the feeling we're going to just consolidate for a while.

Jeff Bailey : 12/22/2006 10:55:26 AM

YG07G $621.10 -0.06% ...

Jeff Bailey : 12/22/2006 10:54:37 AM

Swing trade short alert for 1/2 position in the StreetTracks Gold (GLD) $61.33 -0.08% , stop goes $62.00, target $57.50.

Jane Fox : 12/22/2006 10:34:29 AM

The truly wierd thing about those buy programs today though Keene is that they never got the TICKS past +600. That could be due to the low pre-holiday volume but nevertheless it is strange.

Keene Little : 12/22/2006 10:32:07 AM

Nice little buy program that hit all the indices at once. Now we'll see if it gets some follow through. If not then we'll have another sign with a change of character in this market.

Keene Little : 12/22/2006 10:26:42 AM

I was reminded to take a look at a couple of the banks (thanks George) and noticed that Mother Merrill (MER) has broken its uptrend line from December 1st with today's gap down (it had closed on the line yesterday). After this morning's drop it looks to be consolidating in preparation for antoher drop. I'm not using the low on December 14th for the trend line because I think that's a bad tick.

Goldman Sachs (GS) has for the first time since early September given up its 20-dma at 199.71. It looks like it's headed for its 50-dma coming up to 194 (currently printing 196.70).

Nothing major here and we've seen time and again the bulls come to the rescue. In a light trading environment I take nothing for granted, especially in a bullish market. But these are early signs, more cracks in the dam that I talked about in last night's Wrap.

Jane Fox : 12/22/2006 10:24:21 AM

Daily highs for the TICKS is a meer +459. Wow.

Keene Little : 12/22/2006 10:16:51 AM

The way this is looking I'd say YM 12420 has a decent chance of being tagged. The bottom of a parallel down-channel for ES for this week's price action is near 1421.50 and that's where this might head before setting up a bigger bounce. It's even possible that today will end up back at the flat line if not in the green. Don't discount the bulls yet.

Jane Fox : 12/22/2006 10:16:27 AM

These charts of the PDRs give you a very good perspective of which markets are the strongest and the weakest. Link

Jane Fox : 12/22/2006 10:10:53 AM

These are telling you you should not be trading on the long side. Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/22/2006 10:03:12 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Keene Little : 12/22/2006 10:00:47 AM

The DOW, which has been the stronger index during the market run up is now starting to show some relative weakness--it's making new lows here while NQ and ES hold their bounce. We could see a little consolidation here before all 3 make new lows (if they do).

Jeff Bailey : 12/22/2006 9:59:52 AM

Swing trade bullish stopped alert ... Traders should be stopped out of the 1/2 bullish position in shares of Kinross Gold (KGC) at $11.40.

Low/High so far has been $11.25/$11.55.

Keene Little : 12/22/2006 9:56:40 AM

From an EW perspective it would look better with another small drop to a minor low in order to finish the leg down from yesterday afternoon's bounce. From there I would expect to see a bigger bounce back up, one that could take a couple of days to play out. So if you're still short, look for another low with bearish divergences and think about taking some profits.

Keene Little : 12/22/2006 9:51:41 AM

YM 12420 is a downside Fib projection if this decline continues. Daily S2 is 12419.

Keene Little : 12/22/2006 9:46:51 AM

Bonds have given up most of yesterday afternoon's big bounce. I still have this feeling that the bond market is very confused about what's coming down the road.

Jane Fox : 12/22/2006 9:46:28 AM

Dateline WSJ - NAGOYA, Japan -- Toyota Motor Corp. said Friday it aims to produce 9.42 million vehicles next year, a level that will likely vault it past struggling U.S. auto giant General Motors Corp. as the world's top car maker.

Toyota's new production targets represent a 4% increase from the 9.04 million vehicles the Nagoya-based company expects to produce in 2006. Indicative of Toyota's increasing reliance on foreign markets: Overseas production will jump 8% to 4.27 million vehicles, while domestic production will rise just 1% to 5.15 million vehicles.

GM, which hasn't released a forecast for next year's production, expects to build 9.18 million vehicles in 2006, up from the 9.11 million vehicles it produced in 2005.

Keene Little : 12/22/2006 9:44:12 AM

A straight shot down to ES 1423 means it's less likely to hold.

Jane Fox : 12/22/2006 9:43:24 AM

The two internals that work the best are the trajectories of VIX and AD volume irrespective of their absolute values and there are both quite bearish.

Keene Little : 12/22/2006 9:40:32 AM

Having said that I'd still watch ES 1423 for support. If that breaks though then we could see a continuation down to 1417 to test last week's lows.

Jane Fox : 12/22/2006 9:39:39 AM

Vix open within its PDR but is climbing at an alarming rate. TRIN opens below its PDR but is climbing as well.

Keene Little : 12/22/2006 9:38:56 AM

One of the risks for those holding long positions in the hope/expectation that we'll see higher prices into the new year is that fund managers may get nervous enough to just take profits now and not risk losing their gains. Multiply that by thousands of fund managers and selling could very easily and quickly get out of hand. We've had way too many people leaning over the bullish side of the boat and a tip over would not be at all surprising.

Jane Fox : 12/22/2006 9:34:59 AM

Ad line is a very neutral -31 and AD volume is about as flat as it can get. Raise your hands if you think this could an inkling of how the rest of the day will look.

Keene Little : 12/22/2006 9:33:18 AM

Looks like an immediate retest of the pre-market spike down on the 8:30 news, and now YM and ES are making new lows. NQ still holding up a bit better. But watch the head fake move that we often see--the initial move out of the gate is often reversed.

Keene Little : 12/22/2006 9:10:53 AM

The durable goods numbers show the drum beat of a slowing economy continues. We'll see what the market does with that news today. Big spike down on the news and then a spike right back up (as if to say we'll have none of that on my watch).

Yesterday afternoon's bounce looks like a bear flag so far but it could continue to chop sideways/up for a while. I've seen enough of these bear flags suddenly rally hard so that's a risk if you're still holding onto a short position. But right now I see a continuation lower. A rally back above ES 1435 would tell me otherwise. Two equal legs down from Monday's high is at 1423.

Jane Fox : 12/22/2006 9:07:53 AM

There was not a lot of reaction to the 8:30 economic data and the markets remain within their respective PDRs. Link

Jane Fox : 12/22/2006 8:54:34 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Consumer prices were flat in November, the Commerce Department reported Friday, bringing the year-over-year increase in core inflation down to 2.2%, closer to the Federal Reserve's comfort zone of 2%. The personal consumption expenditure price index was unchanged, as was the core PCE price index, which excludes food and energy prices.

It was the lowest core inflation in four years. Core prices have risen at a 1.8% annual rate over the past three months.

Before November's report, core prices had risen 2.4% year-over-year for three months in a row, heightening the Fed's concerns that inflation may not retreat as expected and that further rate hikes could be needed.

The government also reported that personal incomes rose 0.3% in November following a 0.3% gain in October. Employee compensation rose 0.4%. Real disposable incomes also increased 0.3%.

Economists polled by MarketWatch expected incomes to rise 0.4%.

Per capita incomes rose to $32,280 per year from $32,218.

Jane Fox : 12/22/2006 8:53:40 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - With demand for aircraft rising, new orders for durable goods increased 1.9% in November after an 8.2% drop in October, the Commerce Department reported Friday. Excluding transportation goods, however, orders fell 1.1%, the third decline in the past four months.

Orders for core capital equipment, excluding aircraft and defense goods, fell 1.4% after a 3.9% decline in October. It's the first back-to-back decline in core capital goods since early 2005.

Core capital goods represent the investments businesses make to expand production or to retool to increase productivity.

Shipments of durable goods rose 0.1% following October's 0.3% gain. Shipments excluding transportation goods fell 0.1%.

The report confirms a softening in factory output and demand seen in other reports in recent months. Most economists believe the easing is largely related to the corrections in housing and autos, as well as volatility in other key areas, such as aircraft and electronics

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