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Keene Little : 12/26/2006 11:00:35 PM

Wednesday's pivot tables: Link and Link

OI Technical Staff : 12/26/2006 9:59:59 PM

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Jeff Bailey : 12/26/2006 8:00:58 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/26/2006 7:27:36 PM

YM Pivot Matrix for tomorrow at this Link ... Triple correlation at R1s tomorrow (12,524, 12,525, 12,527) and dual correlations at Daily Pivot/Weekly Pivot and Daily S2/Monthly Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 12/26/2006 5:37:18 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List at this Link

Traders should have been swing trade short stopped out of the 1/2 StreetTracks Gold (GLD) $61.98 +0.53% position at this morning's gap higher open of $62.24.

Jeff Bailey : 12/26/2006 5:17:41 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/26/2006 4:47:02 PM

Pacholder High Yield (PHF) $9.72 +0.10% ... SEC Yield currently tabulated at 9.259% ($0.90 per share per year / $9.72 = 9.259%) ... a bit "expensive" relative to 04:31:56 news item. I'd want about twice the 5.62%

PHF's historical Net Asset Values (NAV)/Stock Prices Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/26/2006 4:31:56 PM

Dow Jones Corporate Bond Index 196.59; Yield 5.62%

Jeff Bailey : 12/26/2006 4:26:38 PM

NYSE Moves To Delist Wolverine Tube; Market Cap Below Listing Standard

WLV $1.34 +0.75% Link ...

Jane Fox : 12/26/2006 4:25:23 PM

Economic reports for tomorrow

10:00a.m. Dec Richmond Fed Mfg Business Index:-6. Previous: 7.

10:30a.m. Dec Dallas Fed Mfg Production Index:-5.2. Previous: 8.5.

Keene Little : 12/26/2006 4:03:31 PM

Mr. Little, please comment on the RUT. What is your take on it. Thank you, Bill

I went looking for my father to answer this (wink) but couldn't find him so I'll take a shot at answering your question Bill. I'm going to assume we'll see bullish things into January just because we've been in a bullish market environment and let's let the market prove itself bearish before jumping on the bear wagon. This daily chart shows an idea: Link

If price continues to chop sideways for another week or two then we could see a bullish resolution out of it and a rally perhaps up to the 820 area. But if price drops below the November 28th low of 767 then that would be a break of its parallel up-channel and a confirmed break of the sideways triangle idea. There is the possibility that the bounce off Friday's (12/22) low is just a correction to the start of its decline but until we get another drop lower we're still in an up trend.

Jeff Bailey : 12/26/2006 4:02:21 PM

Buy Program Premium ... YM 12,495 : SPY $141.58

Jane Fox : 12/26/2006 3:41:50 PM

On Friday the internals were bearish all day but the markets never budged then as soon as the cash markets closed the futures crashed. I wonder if we will see the exact opposite today. Internals have been bullish all day and I wonder if we will see the bulls take the ball and run for that touchdown I was talking about earlier after the cash markets close at 4:00EST.

Keene Little : 12/26/2006 3:37:26 PM

ES and YM have now achieved their upside targets (and a little more for YM) so it's an area I'd watch for a short play to set up. But not now. We're just as likely to see some buy programs keep this elevated into the close. I'd rather wait to see if there's any follow through tomorrow morning.

Jeff Bailey : 12/26/2006 3:33:16 PM

YM 12,487 .... DAILY R1 here. Shorts may be pressured here with overlapping resistance not until WEEKLY R1/MONTHLY R1.

Jeff Bailey : 12/26/2006 3:17:26 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 12/26/2006 3:11:39 PM

If the market can hold up here and push a little higher into the close then YM and ES both have a good chance to hit their daily R1 levels (12490 and 1428). Because of the difference between the indices I'm not sure what's playing out here but this ES 10-min chart shows one idea for an A-B-C bounce off this morning's low. Link

YM would achieve the level where it has two equal legs up (wave-A = wave-C) at 12487 but ES is struggling to achieve 1428.50 where the 2nd leg up would be 62% of the 1st leg up (a common relationship if not two equal legs). A rally to that level would take it to the top of a little parallel up-channel that price appears to be in for wave-C. I continue to like 1428-1428.50 to try a short play but only if it's not close to the end of the day. No shorts overnight.

Jeff Bailey : 12/26/2006 3:02:48 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Keene Little : 12/26/2006 2:11:48 PM

With YM having the more bullish pattern today, watch for it to achieve two equal legs up from this morning's low. That would be at 12487 which would get it up to its 30-min 100 and 130 moving averages (12486 and 12483, resp.) and a potential place to look for a short play. Daily R1 is at 12490. Daily R1 for ES is at 1428 and might also be the top of today's bounce.

Keene Little : 12/26/2006 2:06:03 PM

NQ shows more of a sideways coil off Friday's low and gives me the impression that it's a small 4th wave correction and means we need to see another leg down (which should start now) in that one to a minor new low before a larger bounce sets up. But ES and YM look like they could get another leg up after consolidating sideways today. Another leg up should be followed by another pullback at least (or lower, not sure yet). Still a mixed up picture for me to be able to recommend a play here.

Jane Fox : 12/26/2006 1:53:49 PM

Egads I misspoke I see only YM has made new daily highs. I was looking at TICK charts and needed to go to a longer timeframe to see the "bigger" picture. TKs Keene.

Keene Little : 12/26/2006 1:53:16 PM

NQ is relatively weak here as it tests its mid-day high but not its early morning high.

Keene Little : 12/26/2006 1:51:53 PM

ES hasn't quite reached its morning high for a test while YM is making a new high. ES's high was a 38% retracement of last week's decline whereas YM just tagged its 38% (missed by 2 points actually) on that last thrust higher.

Jeff Bailey : 12/26/2006 1:51:26 PM

SPY $141.36 +0.43% ... challenges morning high and its WEEKLY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 12/26/2006 1:50:44 PM

YM 12,468 ... trades WEEKLY Pivot.

Jane Fox : 12/26/2006 1:50:39 PM

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Plains All American Pipeline L.P. (PAA) on Tuesday confirmed that a crude oil spill occurred on Dec. 24 in the Gulf of Mexico, south of Texas City, Texas. Houston-based Plains said it believes the oil was released from the High Island Pipeline System, which is operated by Plains Pipeline L.P. There were no injuries or casualties reported in connection with the release. Plains said all appropriate agencies have been notified, and an investigation will be made as soon as possible. The company said it was uncertain how the incident occurred, and that it has mobilized Airborne Support Inc., Clean Gulf Associates and other resources in an effort to minimize the consequences.

Jane Fox : 12/26/2006 1:48:52 PM

New highs across the board. Well timed comments me thinks.

Jane Fox : 12/26/2006 1:47:05 PM

Here is more evidence. Link

Jane Fox : 12/26/2006 1:45:55 PM

If you are asking yourself, "Should I be buying the dips or selling the rallies," hopefully these charts will give you the answer. Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/26/2006 1:31:19 PM

Bema Gold (BGO) $5.02 -0.39% ...

Jeff Bailey : 12/26/2006 1:30:59 PM

Barrick Gold (ABX) $30.06 +0.53% ... right back near the $30.00 strike.

Jeff Bailey : 12/26/2006 1:29:58 PM

My gut feel is the GLD short simply got "knee jerk" stopped on this morning's Iran news (using its oil production as a weapon).

Jeff Bailey : 12/26/2006 1:29:05 PM

Newmont Mining (NEM) $45.12 +0.22% ... this morning's high $45.96 a penny above my day trade bullish stop from 12/20/06.

Jeff Bailey : 12/26/2006 1:26:19 PM

Labranch (LAB) $9.91 +2.27% ... session high so far has been $9.96.

Jeff Bailey : 12/26/2006 1:25:56 PM

In the 12/21/06 evening MM (10:13:49) Link I had noted some "weird trades" in various stocks. One was KGC at $11.72.

Jane Fox : 12/26/2006 1:22:35 PM

* NYSE most active stocks: F TWX PFE LLY EMC
* Nasdaq most active stocks: TELK SIRI INTC MSFT AAPL

Jeff Bailey : 12/26/2006 1:22:11 PM

Kinross Gold (KGC) $11.37 (unch) ... after morning jump to as high as $11.73

Jeff Bailey : 12/26/2006 1:18:15 PM

01:05 Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 12/26/2006 1:16:10 PM

Today's slow price action makes it difficult to get a bead on this market but while it's slow I'll show an idea that I've been watching that is bullish for the upcoming week. Using the DOW's daily chart I show an ascending wedge that has been forming since October. This pattern needs another leg up to finish the wave count inside it. Link

The reason I'm entertaining the thought about this pattern (other than the fact that I don't trust the downside) is because of all the 3-wave moves inside it. Even the moves up since October have only been 3-wave moves and for the rally that's not what I expect to see, except in a wedge. And if it's a wedge it may not be finished.

Bears should remain cautious here as the Fib projection, based on the move up from July, is to DOW 12626, or about 250 points from here. It takes a break below the November 28th low of 12072 in order to put to rest this possibility and tell us the rally is finished.

Jeff Bailey : 12/26/2006 1:07:08 PM

01:05 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/26/2006 1:02:12 PM

StreetTracks Gold (GLD) $61.90 +0.40% ... darts into this morning's up gap. Probes MONTHLY S1.

Keene Little : 12/26/2006 12:34:59 PM

Those who would like to see this market held up into the end of the year (fund managers sitting a bunch of profits) would probably be more than happy to see each day look like today--an early pop in the morning and then flat from there. Repeat that each day this week and a good part of last week's decline could be erased.

Jane Fox : 12/26/2006 12:27:45 PM

We may not be moving much but the bulls have the ball and you may see them try for a touchdown later. Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/26/2006 12:21:30 PM

Microsoft's Vista Security Bugs Spark Some Buzz

DJ- Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) has stressed the security features of its Windows update Vista as one of the most improved aspects of the new operating system, and it could be a force in sparking customers' purchases.

But two recent reports by security experts about a bug contained in the Internet Explorer browser shipping with Vista, which allows malware to navigate unsuspecting users to a malicious Web site, is causing some concern in a number of online media reports. Five other flaws were also cited by the researchers.

The reports, one issued last week by Determina, a security firm in California, and another earlier one by a Russian programmer, were featured in a story in the New York Times on Tuesday.

Microsoft said on its security Web site that it hasn't received any reports of attacks involving the flaws. Microsoft wasn't immediately available for comment.

The business version of Vista went on sale Nov. 30, and the consumer product will hit the marketplace on Jan. 30. Vista's development suffered from many delays due to trying to improve security without too much intrusion.

Microsoft shares were up 13 cents, or 0.4%, at $29.77, on volume of 11 million shares, compared with average daily volume of 59.2 million.

MSFT $29.68 +0.13% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 12/26/2006 12:00:23 PM

Telkonet (AMEX:TKO) $2.85 +15.85% Link ... higher after the company announced that the Department of Homeland Security's Transportation Security Administration (TSA), in collaboration with the U.S. Army Information Systems Engineering Command Technology Integration Center, has successfully completed evaluation of the Telkonet's powerline networking platform. The Telkonet iWire System, which was approved for use, is scheduled for deployment within multiple Category II-IV airports starting in January 2007. Telkonet's enterprise IP-over-powerline system will be used to enable the rapid, cost-effective deployment of secure, high-speed network connectivity and other security applications to TSA-owned and operated workspaces within these airports.

Keene Little : 12/26/2006 11:42:08 AM

Oil stocks (OIX.X) saw a good bounce this morning but the bounce has been totally erased and now the index is into the red. This will be a drag on the SPX. My sector list shows energy at the bottom of the pile. Joining them is the retail sector. At the top of the pile is the gold bugs index (HUI.X). Bullishly I also see that financials are holding up well. Some techs and small caps are also doing well today. But overall I still see too many mixed signals to make a call on market direction from here.

Keene Little : 12/26/2006 11:28:27 AM

Oil got clocked to the downside this morning. In its pullback from the high on December 1st two equal legs down for QM is at 60.33 so I'd watch that level for support if you'd like to try a long play. QM is currently printing 61.10, down 1.30.

Jeff Bailey : 12/26/2006 11:17:44 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/26/2006 11:02:31 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 12/26/2006 10:56:21 AM

* NYSE most active stocks: F TWX EMC MOT PFE
* Nasdaq most active stocks: TELK INTC SIRI MSFT MAMA

Jane Fox : 12/26/2006 10:55:14 AM

Here is how the markets are trading in relation to their PDRs. Link

Keene Little : 12/26/2006 10:50:15 AM

After being the first to jump higher out of the gate NDX is now the first one in the red. Right now it looks like distribution continues in the techs. The question now is whether or not rotation into the blue chips will give them a bigger lift. I've got a lot of mixed signals presently on my charts and has me on the sidelines just watching. This is not the week to get aggressive in your trading.

Jeff Bailey : 12/26/2006 10:49:19 AM

I do think the GLD backfills this morning's gap higher. An adjusted stop could be placed just above this morning's high of $62.45.

Oil and CRB Index are weak. Dollar Index (CEC:DXY) down fractions.

Jeff Bailey : 12/26/2006 10:47:57 AM

Swing trade short stopped alert ... should be swing trade short stopped for the 1/2 position StreetTracks Gold (GLD) $62.33 +1.10% at this morning's open of $62.24 (profiled stop was $62.00)

Jane Fox : 12/26/2006 10:40:20 AM

-- Japan's Meteorogical Agency says an earthquake off Taiwan had a prelimary magnitude of 7.2 and that a 3-foot high tsunami is headed for the east coast of Philippines, The Associated Press reports.

Keene Little : 12/26/2006 10:25:56 AM

The early flare up was finished before 10:00 and now the market is stalled. The question here is whether we're going to see some selling into the buying spike, as it appears we might, or else this pullback will be an opportunity to get in for the next leg up.

There's a way for me to call this morning's spike up the completion of an A-B-C corrective bounce that started at Friday's mid-day low. That interpretation suggests another leg down before seeing a larger bounce back up. NQ wasn't able to break its downtrend and bears watching here as I think that one could be our canary.

Jeff Bailey : 12/26/2006 10:03:53 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 12/26/2006 9:56:40 AM

TICKS +800.

Jeff Bailey : 12/26/2006 9:46:10 AM

Weekly/Monthly Index Pivot Matrix at this Link

Keene Little : 12/26/2006 9:44:29 AM

Not a whole lot happening yet. NQ is looking the most bullish but we've seen many times recently early bullishness has led to stronger selling in the techs as people take advantage of rallies to rotate out of them. NQ needs to break above 1776 in order to break last week's downtrend.

Jane Fox : 12/26/2006 9:44:09 AM

Interestingly though I see the TRIN to new daily highs as well.

Jane Fox : 12/26/2006 9:43:38 AM

AD volume is making new daily highs and as long as it is I will not go short.

Jane Fox : 12/26/2006 9:36:17 AM

Since December 15th the TICKS have only reached +800 twice, both on the 19th. Link

Jane Fox : 12/26/2006 9:33:23 AM

VIX opens well above its PDR, which gives the edge to the bears. TRIN open within its PDR so the only indication is coming from the VIX.

Jane Fox : 12/26/2006 9:32:16 AM

Ad LIne is a very neutral -85 and AD volume is about as close to 0 as it can get.

Jane Fox : 12/26/2006 9:27:46 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures rose early Tuesday, tracking higher oil prices against a background of increased tensions with Iran after the United Nations agreed to enforce sanctions against the Tehran government for enriching uranium.

Gold for February delivery was up $8.20 at $630.50 an ounce. Last Friday, the contract finished out the week with a more than $3-an-ounce gain on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Gold pushed higher again to start the holiday-shortened week as oil futures rose. Crude was last up 39 cents at $62.80 a barrel as Iran over the weekend rejected U.N. sanctions and said the West will have to accept it as a nuclear power. Iran has stated time and again that it's seeking nuclear power for non-military purposes.

Jane Fox : 12/26/2006 9:26:05 AM

Ok I have my charts corrected now - this may be a very long day for me.

Jane Fox : 12/26/2006 9:25:23 AM

I may have been using the wrong chart to trade Gold. If you remember I bailed on my long Gold because it closed below support on the Emini chart which was the prudent thing to do, according to this chart. Link

But if I had been using the chart of the big contract I would have never bailed and would still be in my long gold position.Link

Keene Little : 12/26/2006 9:24:19 AM

We saw very low volume on Friday and there's a good chance we'll see even lower volume this week. That could create a very lethargic market but we could see some volatility if any buy/sell programs hit since it won't take much to move the market. Most believe we'll get a rally this week and it's a tough call. It could become a self fulfilling prophecy or it could catch too many leaning the wrong way. Link

As of Friday's close here's what I've got on ES--price dropped to the bottom of a potential parallel down-channel for last week's price action but is still within a steep down-channel from Wednesday. A break above 1424 would break out of the steep down-channel and tell us we're at least correcting that leg down.

The move down from last Monday is only a 3-wave move and therefore could be just a corrective pullback against the rally from July. Bears need to be aware of this, especially since we're entering a typically bullish week.

Jane Fox : 12/26/2006 9:14:00 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) Tuesday said the 2006 holiday season was its "best ever" and noted that it shipped more than 99% of its orders in time to meet deadlines worldwide. The Seattle-based Internet retailer said Dec. 11 was its busiest day as customer orders exceeded four million items. The stock closed Friday at $40.34, up 35 cents.

Jane Fox : 12/26/2006 9:08:20 AM

Dateline CNN - Thieves trying to steal fuel from a pipeline outside Lagos, Nigeria, triggered an explosion and fire that killed at least 200 people, a Nigerian Red Cross spokesman told CNN.

Jane Fox : 12/26/2006 8:57:34 AM

Good morning all, I hope you all had a wonderful Christmas.

Markets didn't do much overnight but we didn't really expect them to do much did we? We also don't expect them to do much this week either do we. Link

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