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Jeff Bailey : 12/28/2006 1:31:05 AM

StockCharts.com's Major Market Bullish %

NYSE Bullish % ($BPNYA) still in a column of "X" to 74%, currently 73.19% bullish Link

NASDAQ Comp. Bullish % ($BPCOMPQ) still in a column of "X" to 58%, currently 58.15% bullish Link

S&P 500 Bullish % ($BPSPX) still in a column of "X" at to 78%, currently 77.40% bullish Link

S&P 100 Bullish % ($BPOEX) still in a column of "X" to 84%, currently 80% bullish Link

NASDAQ-100 Bullish % ($BPNDX) has recently reversed into a column of "O" to 66%, currently 66% bullish Link

Very narrow Dow Industrials Bullish % ($BPINDU) still in a column of "X" to 90%, currently 86.66% bullish Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/28/2006 1:09:19 AM

YM Pivot Matrix for Thursday at this Link ... YM gapped above Wednesday's "triple correlation" and only for a few minutes (moment of silence at NYSE for President Ford) slipped back under and once back above 12,525 it was "off to Pampalona."

Keene Little : 12/28/2006 12:18:27 AM

Thursday's pivot tables: Link and Link

OI Technical Staff : 12/27/2006 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 12/27/2006 5:12:21 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/27/2006 5:02:58 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 12/27/2006 5:05:23 PM

Q4 below 10% would be a first since 2003. Q4 to Q4 will have a tough time living up to SPX 14% at 1425. Projected next quarter is 7%, if I am not mistaken. Decelerating earnings and rising rates are not bullish.
NYSE might close one day this week for Ford. If you are long, you should not hold overnight.
Techs are particularly vulnerable. Note that QQQQ moved below January highs of 43.31 after the close. This low volume is treacherous and it can work both ways.

Jeff Bailey : 12/27/2006 4:38:39 PM

NASDAQ December Short Interest 6.92B Shares vs. 7B in November

DJ- Short interest in all Nasdaq securities fell to 6.92 billion shares in December from 7 billion in November.

This equals 3.60 days average daily volume, compared with last month's average of 3.39 days.

Short interest in Nasdaq Global Market securities totaled 6.78 billion shares, compared with 6.86 billion shares in the month of November.

The December Global Market short interest equals 3.71 days average daily volume, compared with 3.46 days in November.

Short interest in the Nasdaq Capital Market totaled 147.3 million shares for December, compared with 139.9 million shares in November.

This represents 1.56 days average daily volume, compared with last month's figure of 1.7 days.

Jeff Bailey : 12/27/2006 4:29:25 PM

First Call: Q3 Earnings up 19.5% vs. 2005; Up 6.1% vs. Views

DJ- The earnings of companies in the Standard & Poor's 500 index that have issued third-quarter reports are running 19.5% higher than year-earlier results, according to Thomson First Call.

Of the 500 companies, 486, or 97%, had reported earnings for the quarter as of Wednesday. So far, third-quarter earnings have come in 6.1% higher than analysts' expectations.

Compared with a year earlier, earnings of S&P 500 companies are expected to rise 19% in the third quarter. That figure reflects actual earnings for the companies that already have reported and average estimates for the rest.

For the fourth quarter, analysts, on average, expect earnings of the S&P 500 companies to rise 9.9% from the year-earlier period.

Jeff Bailey : 12/27/2006 4:25:05 PM

Dow Jones Corporate Bond Index 195.96; Yield 5.68%; YTD % Change +4.04%

Jeff Bailey : 12/27/2006 4:04:34 PM

EIA: Natural Gas Inventory will be released Friday morning at 10:30 AM EST.

Jeff Bailey : 12/27/2006 4:04:02 PM

EIA: Crude Oil, Distillate and Gasoline will be released tomorrow morning at 10:30 AM EST.

Marc Eckelberry : 12/27/2006 4:05:06 PM

The primary concern will be, as it always has been, interest rates. It might not show now, but it is a problem the markets will have to face. The jobs data tomorrow will be key. The TNX chart I showed is clear: the rally was based on falling rates and high multiple stocks like NDX components were held back by the December reversal and rally in rates.

Keene Little : 12/27/2006 3:52:47 PM

Now that they've driven the DOW to another "record all-time high" for public consumption, and with price pressed up against its broken uptrend line from December 1st, I'm not sure what they'll do for an encore tomorrow. All they really need to do is hold it up now.

After the straight shot up the past two days, to say that the market is a wee bit overbought is an understatement but of course we know this is not a normal week of trading and the buy/sell indicators can't be trusted. If we're to get a continuation higher into early January though I think we'll get a pullback first. Perhaps tomorrow, perhaps not. These are strange times for the market.

With total trading volume running much less than this period last year there's no telling how carried away to the upside this could get, especially if there continues to be a lot of Fed buying pressure. As you can see by this calculated M3 chart, updated as of last Friday, money creation is going through the roof. The light blue line (annual rate of change) has been going straight up for the past few weeks. We have a Fed that is out of control (and clearly worried about our economy). Link

Jane Fox : 12/27/2006 3:51:47 PM

Of course when the DOW makes new yearly highs it is new all time highs.

Jane Fox : 12/27/2006 3:50:31 PM

Heh I guess the DOW did make new yearly highs today.

Jane Fox : 12/27/2006 3:50:52 PM

With internals like this the markets should be making new yearly highs. These are about a bullish as they can get. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 12/27/2006 3:30:44 PM

TNX: Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/27/2006 3:28:01 PM

Bullish day trade exit alert ... for the QQQQ at the bid of $43.36

Jeff Bailey : 12/27/2006 3:17:08 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 12/27/2006 3:08:05 PM

The DOW's broken uptrend line from December 1st is now at 12513.

Jeff Bailey : 12/27/2006 3:03:02 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Keene Little : 12/27/2006 2:57:01 PM

The bears are deathly afraid to step in front of this and it takes next to nothing in buying volume to continue to press the market higher. That may be the name of the game through the rest of the week.

Marc Eckelberry : 12/27/2006 3:00:06 PM

Jobless claims and CC tomorrow. INTC is finding resistance right at 10 day ema and old trendline support, now apparently resistance. I like INTC as a dog of the dow, but not until January. Right now, it is a tax loss seller.
QM (oil) made a lower low with a bullish divergence. Oil bulls want to hold 60.30, double bottom off November 24th doji.
Interest rates could keep climbing if the data stays good and we could be headed for a Fed "gap" close. The last time the ten year came close to 5.25%, equities sold off very hard. So far, there are no reasons for the Feds to lower rates, especially if oil bottoms on this low volume selling. Again, be careful.

Jeff Bailey : 12/27/2006 2:49:46 PM

Intel (INTC) $20.49 +1.63% ... session high and WEEKLY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 12/27/2006 2:49:20 PM

No "major" earnings slated for tonight or tomorrow.

Jeff Bailey : 12/27/2006 2:30:08 PM

The only "resistance" near-term (other than WEEKLY/MONTHLY Pivots) for the QQQQ is the still trending higher 50-day SMA ($43.36)

Jane Fox : 12/27/2006 2:56:29 PM

With the internals as strong as they it makes one wonder why the bulls cannot get more traction than this and if it is due to the low volume or something else more endemic.

Keene Little : 12/27/2006 2:19:21 PM

Here's a 60-min chart showing that broken uptrend line for the DOW. It tested it early this morning and appears ready to test it again this afternoon. Link

Keene Little : 12/27/2006 2:17:06 PM

It looks like the DOW is going to continue pressing up against its broken uptrend line from December 1st, currently at 12509. This is something of a specialty for the DOW--push up against a broken uptrend line but not recapture it.

Keene Little : 12/27/2006 2:15:22 PM

The DOW at least tagged 12500 on that last thrust up, after missing it last week by less than 2 points.

Jeff Bailey : 12/27/2006 2:12:13 PM

Labranche (LAB) $10.26 +2.10% ... traded 50% retracement of 11/03/06 relative low close to recent 11/22/06 high close.

Jane Fox : 12/27/2006 2:11:43 PM

Here is your AD volume update. Not many days we see it this strong. Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/27/2006 2:10:52 PM

NQ sure didn't have a problem backfilling this morning's gap did it?

YM did spend more that 3 minutes below its WEEKLY R1.

Jeff Bailey : 12/27/2006 2:07:15 PM

TRINQ's WEEKLY S1 at 0.58

Jeff Bailey : 12/27/2006 2:06:41 PM

NASDAQ a/d 2,018/997

TRINQ 0.89

Keene Little : 12/27/2006 2:01:58 PM

2:00 PM and the buy programs hit. Sometimes these 2:00 moves can be false moves though so it's a tough call here as to whether or not we'll see follow through to the upside.

Jeff Bailey : 12/27/2006 2:01:25 PM

Should go MONTHLY Pivot ($43.50) / WEEKLY Pivot ($43.55)

Jeff Bailey : 12/27/2006 2:00:51 PM

QQQQ $43.38 +0.62% ... session highs ...

Jeff Bailey : 12/27/2006 1:53:53 PM

BUSH TO HOST NATIONAL SECURITY TEAM

DJ- President Bush will host a National Security Council meeting tomorrow with Vice President Cheney, Defense Secretary Gates and Secretary of State Rice, among others, that will take him a step closer to deciding a new U.S. policy in Iraq.

Jeff Bailey : 12/27/2006 1:52:31 PM

CHICAGO FED INDEX EDGES HIGHER

DJ- Fed Bank of Chicago says manufacturing activity in the Midwest rises 0.3% in November, compared with October, with the machinery, resource and auto sectors all posting monthly gains.

Jeff Bailey : 12/27/2006 1:50:10 PM

US NEW-HOME SALES CLIMB 3.4%

DJ- Sales rise to 1.047 million annual rate in November, above economists' average estimate, and inventories fall 1.4%, signaling the slumping housing market may be stabilizing. Median price up 5.8% from year earlier, but sales are still down 15% from November 2005.

Keene Little : 12/27/2006 1:44:00 PM

AAPL's recovery is quite impressive. Too bad the bounce back up is on lower and lower volume. AAPL closed its gap and if you're a bear on this stock it's a good place to short it.

Jeff Bailey : 12/27/2006 1:43:39 PM

NASDAQ-100 Heatmap Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/27/2006 1:42:28 PM

"Not Impressive" ... QQQQ $43.32 +0.48% ...

Jeff Bailey : 12/27/2006 1:41:09 PM

"Impressive" ... AAPL $81.31 -0.24% ...

Keene Little : 12/27/2006 1:39:29 PM

At this point, like after yesterday's high level consolidation, we should be looking for another resolution higher. I don't like to rely on that interpretation alone, especially in a low volume environment like this, but the pattern says the odds are higher for another leg up.

Jeff Bailey : 12/27/2006 1:19:40 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 12/27/2006 1:17:54 PM

I had made a comment about selling could start at any time since the 3-day settlement would have the sale being reflected next week. I got an email from Joe saying that's not so (thanks for the update Joe). I wanted to pass along the information so that you're aware.

From my understanding for tax planning purposes buying and selling longs goes by the trade date. Covering shorts goes by the settlement date. Selling a long before January 1 hoping to use the settlement date could be a mistake IMO. Joe

Here's what I found at the Roth & Co. site (rothcpa.com) that Joe had forwarded to me: "For most stock positions, the "trade date" is the effective date of a stock sale for tax purposes. For "short" positions sold at a loss, however, the "settlement" date is the effective date. At this point, the problem of losses on short positions is only theoretical, as they can only occur if a stock price rises."

Marc Eckelberry : 12/27/2006 1:29:55 PM

Just a quick note to give readers a word of caution. SPX is up 14% for the year, when earnings growth have been for the most part single digit. Risk reward does not favor the long side at this point, so use caution in the next three days. QQQQ January highs at 43.31 remains resistance. The lagging techs, many of which, including GOOG and INTC, are exhibiting bear flags today, remain a deep concern going forward. COMP 20 DMA at 2433 is resistance should QQQQ breakout. RLX (retail) is facing 2003 bull market trend line ex- support, now resistance and is about to keel over. Be careful. Internals are bullish, but that means little in this low volume. VIX is at 10 day ema support. The long side is a scalp play only or day trade, but again, this is not the time to get greedy or careless.

Jeff Bailey : 12/27/2006 1:03:07 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Keene Little : 12/27/2006 1:02:03 PM

Long term puts. Which puts are you looking at??

There are so many choices that it's hard to say which one is the right choice. Thinking that the techs will lead the way down I've been buying some QQQQ March 44 puts and then selling January 43 puts on the dips, covering on the rallies and working my cost basis down. For an intermediate term trade I think people could look at SPY March 140 puts and look to sell them on the January/February sell off. You want to get rid of them well before March.

If you want to play an even longer term move then December 2007 or 2008 puts is a set-and-forget play. Except again I would sell puts against them each month and work your cost basis down, so in other words manage your plays instead of setting and forgetting. Perhaps buy some SPY December 07 140 puts (currently 5.20 x 5.40) and then use the daily charts to gauge when short term bottoms are likely and then sell shorter term puts to start recapturing the cost of the long puts.

These are obviously just a couple of suggestions to show some ideas of how you can use, and manage, some bearish option plays. Buy some longer term puts now with low VIX and then sell premium when the VIX spikes up, rinse and repeat. It should work well for at least the early part of next year.

Jane Fox : 12/27/2006 12:50:06 PM

If you can't bring yourself to be long this market please do not try shorting it. Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/27/2006 12:48:25 PM

TRINQ 0.96

Jeff Bailey : 12/27/2006 12:48:00 PM

NASDAQ a/d 2,008/944

Jeff Bailey : 12/27/2006 12:46:39 PM

NQ bulls could probably raise stop to 1,776.25

Jeff Bailey : 12/27/2006 12:45:32 PM

QQQQ $43.35 +0.55% ... probes morning high

Jeff Bailey : 12/27/2006 12:14:06 PM

Russell 2000 Growth (IWO) $79.44 +0.79% ... up 0.78% last 5 days, up 0.63% last 20 days.

Jeff Bailey : 12/27/2006 12:13:16 PM

Russell 2000 Value (IWN) $80.82 +0.83% ... up 1.32% last 5 days, 1.45% last 20 days.

Jeff Bailey : 12/27/2006 12:08:45 PM

A couple of things I'll be noting in this evening Market Wrap is the tie between QQQQ chart shown Friday evening, and action in the NASDAQ's NH/NL and Summation (a/d) charts. I think there will be a setup for some "tax gain selling" early in January.

GOOG's PnF chart may play into those thoughts.

Keene Little : 12/27/2006 12:05:53 PM

While I keep warning of a potential top this week, this chart of the DOW that I had posted yesterday says we shouldn't expect a top for at least another week or so. This says look for a small pullback and then a final push to a new high to finish the ascending wedge pattern from October. An upside Fib projection at DOW 12626 could be achieved in the first or second week of January. Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/27/2006 12:05:28 PM

QQQQ $43.28 +0.39% ... still watching the paint dry.

Jeff Bailey : 12/27/2006 12:04:42 PM

Apple (AAPL) $79.78 -2.13% ... claws its way back to overlapping DAILY S2/Weekly S1.

Jeff Bailey : 12/27/2006 11:59:06 AM

BIX 411.73 +0.39% ... juuuust above their WEEKLY R2. DAILY R2 only pivot level left for resistance at 412.22.

Jane Fox : 12/27/2006 11:56:04 AM

Internals are bullish so don't try the short side but with the volume as low has it has been I'm not sure of the long side either. Yesterday the internals were bullish and that didn't help our trading other than to make sure we didn't go short.

Jeff Bailey : 12/27/2006 11:54:37 AM

Cisco (CSCO) $27.44 +0.91% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 12/27/2006 11:54:01 AM

Microsoft (MSFT) $30.00 +0.03% Link ...

Keene Little : 12/27/2006 11:48:59 AM

Banks have been leading the way higher since the end of November and as this daily chart shows they too look like they could be nearing resistance at the top of a parallel up-channel. Link

RSI is as overbought as it was in May and the current new high could be showing signs that it will be met with a negative divergence, the same as we saw in May. The top of its channel is near 412.60 so less than a point above its current price. Just another potential warning of topping action here.

Jeff Bailey : 12/27/2006 11:41:43 AM

GOOG's WEEKLY R1 at $474.68 and right near that triple bottom sell signal of $476.

Jeff Bailey : 12/27/2006 11:39:39 AM

Google (GOOG) $465 +1.64% Link ... WEEKLY Pivot $463.51.

Jeff Bailey : 12/27/2006 11:36:17 AM

QQQQ $43.28 ... at DAILY R2. I'm thinking there just aren't going to be too many sellers into the close and NQ/NDX/QQQQ gravitate toward WEEKLY Pivots.

Jeff Bailey : 12/27/2006 11:34:59 AM

WEEKLY R1s have been traded for INDU/DIA, SPX/SPY, OEX and RUT

Jeff Bailey : 12/27/2006 11:21:55 AM

Bullish day trade long alert ... for the QQQQ $43.28 here, stop $43.17 with target of $43.49.

Jeff Bailey : 12/27/2006 11:20:08 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 12/27/2006 11:16:54 AM

One other caution for those who might be thinking of holding onto long positions into the new year is that with a 3-day settlement on stock purchases and sales we could see selling start at any time since the settlement wouldn't show up on the books until after this month's books close.

Jeff Bailey : 12/27/2006 11:02:52 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/27/2006 10:58:52 AM

Good Gravy! SPX NH/NL 40:0

Yesterday's 19:1 and Friday's 9:2

Jane Fox : 12/27/2006 10:57:59 AM

Just want to make sure you are buying the dips and not selling the rallies. This is not the time to be short. Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/27/2006 10:47:43 AM

TRIN 1.04

Jeff Bailey : 12/27/2006 10:47:27 AM

YM either side of DAILY R2/Monthly 80.9% last hour. YM 12,557

Keene Little : 12/27/2006 10:46:20 AM

The little sideways shuffle here looks like another high (for the DOW at least) in the making. It seems they're going to be determined to get the DOW over 12500 as we see it consolidate just underneath that level.

Jeff Bailey : 12/27/2006 10:45:42 AM

Symbol Change ... E*Trade moves from NYSE to NASDAQ (ETFC) $22.75 +0.53% ...

Jeff Bailey : 12/27/2006 10:38:26 AM

HEARD ON THE STREET Scarce Rigs Help Anadarko

The boom in deep-water oil and natural-gas wells off the coasts of Brazil and West Africa could pay off for energy company Anadarko, who have a large inventory of the sought-after, highly specialized rigs needed.

APC $43.05 +0.81% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 12/27/2006 10:36:15 AM

Surge Of New ETFs Expected In 2007

DJ- The rollout of new exchange-traded fund products just keeps on going and going, writes John Spence. No less than 144 ETFs were launched this year, with 92 spawning on the American Stock exchange and 52 on NYSE Arca.

Jeff Bailey : 12/27/2006 10:32:34 AM

BOEING GETS $1.15B APACHE HELICOPTER CONTRACT

DJ- Boeing's plant here has won a $1.15 billion contract from the government to build 126 Apache helicopters over the next three years. The deal calls for Boeing to overhaul older Apache helicopters with millions of dollars in technology upgrades.

BA $89.21 +0.47% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 12/27/2006 10:30:57 AM

SEMPRA GAINS ON BOOSTED 2006 FORECAST

DJ- San Diego energy company's shares rise 2% after saying it expects '06 earnings from continuing operations, excluding asset sales, to exceed $4 a share, up from its previous forecast of between $3.50 and $3.70 a share.

SRE $56.38 +1.97% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 12/27/2006 10:27:35 AM

US NOVEMBER NEW HOME SALES SEEN UP 1.6%

DJ- New home sales are expected to rise in November after October's larger-than-expected decline. Economists expect a 1.6% increase in new home sales to an annual rate of 1,020,000, compared to October's 3.2% decline to 1,004,000.

Jeff Bailey : 12/27/2006 10:25:22 AM

APPLE SLIPS ON GOVERNMENT PROBE REPORT

DJ- Shares drop 4% on a report that federal prosecutors are examining stock option administration documents apparently falsified by company officials to maximize the profitability of options grants to executives.

AAPL $78.15 -4.13% Link ...

Keene Little : 12/27/2006 10:25:14 AM

The difference between NDX and the DOW couldn't be sharper right now. The DOW is challenging the December highs while NDX hasn't been able to retrace even 25% of it decline. And NDX (the generals) is underperforming the Nasdaq. These are such clear signs that this market is in serious trouble and it's just a matter of time before the unloading begins. Whether it starts to happen this week or next, or the week after that, it will happen. Now is a good time to add a few more longer term puts. They should pay off handsomely in the next couple of months.

Jeff Bailey : 12/27/2006 10:23:37 AM

US RETAIL SALES FALL 1.6%

DJ- Chain store sales drop in first four weeks of December compared with the previous month, according to Redbook Research. Fall was slightly worse than targeted 1.3% decrease. ICSC says weekly US chain-store sales were up 1.7%

Jeff Bailey : 12/27/2006 10:23:02 AM

FORMER PRESIDENT FORD DIES AT 93

DJ- Former President Gerald R. Ford, who declared "Our long national nightmare is over" as he replaced Richard Nixon, dies at 93. The nation's 38th president, and the only one not elected to the office, died at his Rancho Mirage, California, home Tuesday. Ford was the longest living former president. President Bush says Ford was a "gentlemen who reflected the best in American character" and helped heal a nation divided by Watergate.

Keene Little : 12/27/2006 10:11:07 AM

YM is currently stalled at the broken uptrend line from December 1st.

Jeff Bailey : 12/27/2006 10:10:44 AM

YM 12,557

Jeff Bailey : 12/27/2006 10:10:10 AM

MBA's Weekly Mortgage Application (Survey) Link

Jane Fox : 12/27/2006 10:09:04 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Sales of new homes rose 3.5% in November to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.047 million, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday. Sales are now down 15.3% in the past year. October's sales pace was revised to 1.013 million, from an earlier-estimated 1.004 million. The median sales price of a new home rose to $251,700 from $243,800. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch were expecting sales to rise to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.02 million from the previous 1.00 million.

Jeff Bailey : 12/27/2006 10:05:06 AM

10:00 Market Watch at this Link

Keene Little : 12/27/2006 10:03:07 AM

I don't know if it means anything yet (but could be potentially very bearish) but the bounce in ES from December 19th to the 20th had retraced 78.6% of the leg down from the December 18th high. The bounce yesterday and today just tagged (actually missed 1436 by a tick) the 78.6% retracement of the decline from the 19th.

I don't know if 1436 will hold but if it does then there is the potential we have a 1-2, 1-2 wave count to the downside and that would be a very bearish setup. I have trouble with that interpretation for this week but it is a heads up for those who might be long and holding for an expected push into January.

Jeff Bailey : 12/27/2006 10:00:09 AM

Sell Program Premium ...

Jane Fox : 12/27/2006 9:57:12 AM

Consolidating at daily highs usually means a breakout to the upside.

Jane Fox : 12/27/2006 9:54:58 AM

Here is how the markets are trading in relation to their overnight ranges. Link

Keene Little : 12/27/2006 9:52:08 AM

If today will be like yesterday then most of the buying will be finished by 10:00 and then all they'll have to do is hold it up for the rest of the day, like they did yesterday. The volume this week is even lighter than it was last year at this time so this kind of manipulation is very easy for those who have the money to do it.

Jeff Bailey : 12/27/2006 9:48:31 AM

Shopper Trak

DJ- Retail sales for the week ended Dec. 23 rose 5.2% on a surge of last-minute spending that should bring total holiday sales "relatively close" to original projections despite recent shortfalls, according to ShopperTrak RCT Corp.

The weekly gain was driven by big sales increases during the final two shopping days of the week, the Chicago-based firm said. Sales on Dec. 23 totaled $8.72 billion, making it the second-biggest holiday shopping day of the year behind Black Friday, which racked up $8.96 billion in sales.

Saturday's sales "provided a much-needed boost to the weekly year-over-year sales figure, as up to the weekend consumer spending appeared relatively flat last week," ShopperTrak said in a written statement Wednesday.

The 5.2% gain also came despite a 1.3% decline in foot traffic, according to data from ShopperTrak, which counts traffic at more than 50,000 retail and enclosed-mall locations in the U.S.

"It might just indicated that shoppers were making bigger spends with fewer trips last week, which is a trend retailers see from time to time throughout the holidays," ShopperTrak cofounder Bill Martin said in a written statement.

Over the weekend, ShopperTrak had reported holiday sales were up 4.3% to date, and said a surge of gift-card spending during the final week of December might be needed to make the firm's forecast for a 5% gain in total holiday sales.

ShopperTrak over the weekend reported that retail sales for Dec. 22 and Dec. 23 jumped 22.5% to $16.28 billion from the same two-day period in 2005. The firm noted, however, that year-over-year comparisons were "a bit skewed," given that the Saturday before Christmas was also Christmas Eve in 2005, making it a shorter shopping day for most retailers.

Jane Fox : 12/27/2006 9:48:03 AM

ER and YM broke their overnight highs. ES is testing its ON high now and NQ is not anywhere near its overnight high.

Jeff Bailey : 12/27/2006 9:45:21 AM

YM 12,469 becomes significant level of support today.

Jane Fox : 12/27/2006 9:44:43 AM

VIX just spiked downwards putting upward pressure on the markets.

Jeff Bailey : 12/27/2006 9:44:41 AM

YM 12,555

Jeff Bailey : 12/27/2006 9:44:27 AM

Shopper Trak: US Retail Sales Up 5.2% Week Ended Dec. 23

Jane Fox : 12/27/2006 9:43:52 AM

Not a time to be short. Link

Jeff Bailey : 12/27/2006 9:41:06 AM

A/D lines bullish early

NYSE 2,133/522

NASDAQ 1,827/613

Jane Fox : 12/27/2006 9:41:14 AM

Both VIX and TRIN open below their respective PDLs

Jane Fox : 12/27/2006 9:38:47 AM

TICKs +800

Jane Fox : 12/27/2006 9:37:39 AM

AD line +1136 and AD volume well above 0 and climbing. The bulls have the ball this morning.

Jeff Bailey : 12/27/2006 9:36:53 AM

The dip to 12,516 got snapped up above triple overlap real quick at cash session open.

Keene Little : 12/27/2006 9:35:52 AM

Seeing this price action out of the gates should leave little question in your mind how manipulated the market is right now.

Jeff Bailey : 12/27/2006 9:35:33 AM

YM short stopped alert 12,545

Jeff Bailey : 12/27/2006 9:32:53 AM

YM 12,423 ... day trader's 5-minute interval chart at this Link

Jane Fox : 12/27/2006 9:30:57 AM

All markets open above their PDHs.

Jane Fox : 12/27/2006 9:30:01 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - Shares of Apple Computer Inc. (AAPL) dropped 4% in preopen trades Wednesday after a news report suggested that some company officials may have falsified stock-option documents in the past to maximize profits for executives. The news report, which appeared on the Web site Law.com, said federal prosecutors are examining the documents to determine whether criminal charges should be filed. The story cited "individuals familiar with the case who requested anonymity." The report also said Chief Executive Steve Jobs has decided that he needs to hire his own attorney to deal with the Justice Department and Securities and Exchange Commission. Until now, Jobs has been represented by the company's outside law firm. Apple has previously said that its own internal investigation has found no misconduct by Jobs or other senior executives.

Jeff Bailey : 12/27/2006 9:17:58 AM

YM short alert here at 12,531 , stop 12,545, target 12,508.

Keene Little : 12/27/2006 9:16:18 AM

Between the low volume trading during the day and very light volume at night it certainly appears there's some big money using this opportunity to drive the indices higher into the end of the year. A straight up rally on low volume probably won't have a happy ending but for many fund managers what happens in January is of little importance to them. Most just want to see the makret go out at its highs by the end of this year. At this rate it won't take long.

ES and YM hit their respective daily R2 overnight but in this very light volume environment and the manipulated push higher I wonder if normal support and resistance means much. It's why trading this week is riskier than normal.

Jane Fox : 12/27/2006 9:09:14 AM

Overnight Gold traded within its PDR, which is bullish considering the gains it made yesterday. I expect Gold to hold these gains based on the chart of the US $.

Crude hovered around its PDLs suggesting it will make new lower lows intraday;

TBonds trading within their PDR overnight. Link

Jane Fox : 12/27/2006 8:55:22 AM

We had quite a bullish overnight session with all markets breaking their respective PDRs. We have very clear zones of support under the markets made up from PDHs and overnight lows. Link

Jane Fox : 12/27/2006 8:45:27 AM

Dateline WSJ - HONG KONG -- A strong earthquake off the coast of Taiwan disrupted telephone, Internet and data services across a broad swath of Asia Wednesday, forcing stock dealers in Hong Kong and elsewhere to use backup systems after some trading platforms went down.

Regional telecommunications giants in Taiwan, Hong Kong, Japan, Singapore and South Korea reported disruptions and said it was unclear how soon they could fix the problems. While not all services in Asia were affected, some telecommunications services to points as far away as the U.S. and Latin America were disrupted.

Chunghwa Telecom Co., Taiwan's largest telecom company, said only 2% of its capacity for phone calls to Southeast Asian countries was working following Tuesday night's earthquake and aftershocks that damaged undersea cables.

Chunghwa Telecom said it will take two to three weeks to repair the cable lines at a cost of more than 10 million New Taiwan dollars (US$305,900). However, the company said it aimed to partially restore capacity for some countries within hours by borrowing capacity from other countries. Chunghwa Telecom owns around 5% of the cable lines together with around 30 other operators, said Wu Chih-Ming, managing director of its international business group's network department. "We are still trying to evaluate any revenue loss," said T.F. Leng, a vice president at the company's international business group.

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