Option Investor
Archive
HAVING TROUBLE PRINTING?
Printer friendly version
Keene Little : 1/4/2007 10:35:49 PM

Friday's pivot tables: Link and Link

OI Technical Staff : 1/4/2007 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 1/4/2007 5:15:00 PM

2006 "Santa Claus Rally" results

INDU +59, or +0.48%

SPX (unch)

OEX +1, or +0.15%

NDX +26.5, or +1.50%

RUT +7, or +0.90%.

Jeff Bailey : 1/4/2007 5:05:05 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Note: At the conclusion of today's trade, the NYSE 5-day NH/NL ratio reverses lower by 3-boxes to 92.00%.

Keene Little : 1/4/2007 5:02:44 PM

One more thing to add to Scott's observation below on the OEX--he mentioned 670 as the 62% retracement of the 2000-2002 decline. In the wave count for the move up from early November the 5th wave will equal 62% of the 1st wave (common in an ascending wedge pattern) at 669. Also, on the weekly chart we have an A-B-C wave count for the 2002-2007 rally and wave-C (the move up from June) will equal 62% of wave-A at 673. I'd say we've got some very good correlation around this 670 area to mark a top (assuming of course we rally up to there in the next few days).

Keene Little : 1/4/2007 4:49:35 PM

I'll be using a 120-min chart of SPX in tonight's Wrap that shows the exact same count as Scott just described for the OEX.

Keene Little : 1/4/2007 4:47:19 PM

For followers of the OEX and wave counts, this from a sharp reader (and the reason I'm looking for another rally leg, but only if it continues rallying tomorrow):

I'm looking at a finishing 5 wave pattern on the daily chart of the OEX. Wave 1 being the Nov. 22nd high of 655, Wave 2 being the low of 640 on Nov. 28th, Wave 3 being the high of 665 on Dec. 15th-20th, Wave 4 the low of 656 from yestaerday and today. Wave 5 should end up at about 670 which would be the 61.8% retracement area of the March 2000 high and the July 2002 low which should act as strong resistance. Your thoughts would be appreciated even if it's just to tell me I'm nuts.
Scott

Welcome to the nutty club that spends all it's time counting to 5 and saying their abc's. I'm with you on this one Scott. Now let's see if the bulls concur tomorrow.

Jeff Bailey : 1/4/2007 4:32:15 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Keene Little : 1/4/2007 4:09:15 PM

This SPX 60-min chart is a bit crowded with trend lines but the bullish side of me says yesterday's sharp decline may have been the completion of an A-B-C correction to the rally from July and that would mean we'll start another rally leg. Yesterday's leg down was to a Fib projection for two equal legs down from the December high and therefore could be the completion of the 4th wave (instead of completing it at the December 22nd low). Link

Right now I don't like the fact that SPX can't get back above its broken uptrend line since it looks like a setup for a bearish kiss goodbye. But we'll need tomorrow to determine whether this is a bearish or bullish setup. The EW pattern for today's bounce is potentially a 1-2, 1-2 wave count to the upside and if that's correct we'll see a strong rally tomorrow, perhaps even with a gap up above its trend line. Otherwise a decline to new lows below yesterday's/today's would be potentially very bearish.

Keene Little : 1/4/2007 3:59:51 PM

SPX is giving up its uptrend line as we head into the close. That could be bearish for tomorrow but honestly today leaves me with a big question mark. I could argue equally strongly for a move in either direction.

Jane Fox : 1/4/2007 3:36:12 PM

See the market just had to bring out its chain saws. NQ's PDH was 1811 and NQ just hit 1811.75. YM's daily high was 12555 and it just hit 12563.

Keene Little : 1/4/2007 3:31:38 PM

The move up from mid day looks like it should have another stair step or two higher which would put SPX back above its broken uptrend line if it can do it into the close.

Keene Little : 1/4/2007 3:21:21 PM

With the July-Nov uptrend line for SPX at 1419.50 at today's close it will be interesting to see if it gets parked there today. It will leave both sides still guessing--bounce up for another bearish kiss goodbye or instead holding the uptrend line. All depends on your perspective. Short term I'd use today's uptrend line and use that as a guide--long above, short below (currently at SPX 1415, ES 1424).

Jeff Bailey : 1/4/2007 3:16:04 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 1/4/2007 3:07:10 PM

SPX is challenging its broken uptrend line again so let's see what the bulls, or the bears for that matter, can do here.

Jane Fox : 1/4/2007 3:07:28 PM

Here I go out on a limb and I know the market has its chain saws ready to cut me down like the chain saw massacre but I do not think YM will make a new daily high nor will NQ break its PDH.

Jane Fox : 1/4/2007 3:04:52 PM

The only bullish internal is the VIX making new daily lows and that is not be enough to get me long. Don't get me wrong I really like the VIX as an internal but if it is not being confirmed by at least one other internal I will not trade with it.

Tab Gilles : 1/4/2007 3:04:11 PM

Bill Gross of PIMCO sees 4 rate cuts in 2007 and Fed Funds rate of 4.25%. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/4/2007 3:03:35 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 1/4/2007 3:02:43 PM

YM is testing its daily highs but there are not enough buyers to break thru. NQ is just about to test its PDHs but I don't think it will break through.

Jane Fox : 1/4/2007 3:00:07 PM

New daily highs while the AD line and volume look like this? Does not compute. If long, don't expect much. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/4/2007 2:59:30 PM

MMM $77.69 -0.72% ... holding... holding its 200-day SMA right here. Still refusing to give up $77.50.

Keene Little : 1/4/2007 2:59:07 PM

In the meantime oil is now down close to -5%. Big move over there today, and this follows a sharp decline since December 20th. Needless to say the oil stocks are not doing well over the past couple of days.

Jane Fox : 1/4/2007 2:58:09 PM

ES and ER to new daily highs.

Keene Little : 1/4/2007 2:57:30 PM

NQ is about to test yesterday's high so watch for any weakness and bearish divergences, the opposite of what we saw this morning with ES and YM testing yesterday's lows.

Jeff Bailey : 1/4/2007 2:55:08 PM

NYSE a/d 1,509/1,759

Jeff Bailey : 1/4/2007 2:54:54 PM

NASDAQ a/d 1,654/1,402

Jeff Bailey : 1/4/2007 2:53:57 PM

YM 12,546 ... set to test DAILY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 1/4/2007 2:50:40 PM

YM 12,530 ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/4/2007 2:47:33 PM

YM 12,517

Jeff Bailey : 1/4/2007 2:45:50 PM

BIX 408.53 -0.02% ... still pinned under DAILY Pivot (408.82)

Jane Fox : 1/4/2007 2:53:59 PM

Jeff my TRIN high so far today has been 1.49. Be careful of the early spikes, I never like to take a TRIN reading until at least the first 5 minute bar closes.

Jeff Bailey : 1/4/2007 2:43:22 PM

Continental Airlines (CAL) $45.49 +3.38% ... probes recent 52-week highs.

Jane Fox : 1/4/2007 2:43:09 PM

PDLs have all held today. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/4/2007 2:41:14 PM

Last day count of "Santa Claus Rally" has the day trade bear side of me a bit cautious.

Jeff Bailey : 1/4/2007 2:40:06 PM

YM 12,513

Jeff Bailey : 1/4/2007 2:39:57 PM

TRIN 1.33

Jeff Bailey : 1/4/2007 2:39:46 PM

TRIN 1.24 ... while U.S. Market Watch has 1.25 as hod, I'm showing "spike" to 1.70 earlier this morning.

Jeff Bailey : 1/4/2007 2:39:01 PM

NYSE a/d 1,382/1880

Jeff Bailey : 1/4/2007 2:38:32 PM

WEEKLY Pivot still trying to hold resistance, but feels bullish.

Jeff Bailey : 1/4/2007 2:37:49 PM

YM 12,519

Keene Little : 1/4/2007 2:36:05 PM

One thing about the price pattern for NQ though--it could, with another high and potentially at yesterday's high, finish a 5-wave move up from yesterday's low. That could set up a bigger pullback for the techs and drive ES and YM to new lows. I'm not quite sure how to resolve the disparity between these indices at the moment and it says be careful about either side right now.

Jeff Bailey : 1/4/2007 2:33:56 PM

QQQQ $43.90 best levels of session.

Keene Little : 1/4/2007 2:33:28 PM

NQ may be our canary here. In this case it's merrily chirping away. But ES and YM seem to be dragging their feet, not exactly feeling merry.

Jeff Bailey : 1/4/2007 2:33:07 PM

YM 12,519 ... get covered if short ... oil is closed.

Jeff Bailey : 1/4/2007 2:32:31 PM

Buy Program Premium ... YM 12,523 : SPY $141.46

Jeff Bailey : 1/4/2007 2:32:02 PM

YM short stop alert 12,519

Jeff Bailey : 1/4/2007 2:24:47 PM

YM 12,505 ... doesn't want to give up on "dynamic" 38.2% of 12,501.

Jeff Bailey : 1/4/2007 2:23:46 PM

NASDAQ a/d 1,414/1615 ... not far off.

Jeff Bailey : 1/4/2007 2:23:13 PM

NYSE a/d matches 01:00 internals.

Jeff Bailey : 1/4/2007 2:20:56 PM

YM 12,501

Jeff Bailey : 1/4/2007 2:20:50 PM

TRIN 1.21 ... set to test intraday high of 1.23

Jeff Bailey : 1/4/2007 2:18:26 PM

NYSE a/d 1,292/1,972

Jeff Bailey : 1/4/2007 2:18:04 PM

YM short lower stop alert to break even (12,519).

A/D lines holding firm.

TRIN 1.15

Keene Little : 1/4/2007 2:10:00 PM

ES and YM look weak but NQ gives me the impression it's going to press higher. Tough call here for the market.

Jeff Bailey : 1/4/2007 2:09:30 PM

YM short target correction alert ... target should be 12,455 (not 12,445 as typed). I'm not messing with MONTHLY Pivot today.

YM 12,504 ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/4/2007 2:06:04 PM

Sell Program Premium ... YM 12,506 : SPY $141.23

Jeff Bailey : 1/4/2007 2:00:49 PM

YM 12,519

Keene Little : 1/4/2007 1:57:32 PM

Oil is getting punished today--down more than 4% and still going. I've abandoned all thoughts of a bullish bounce in oil.

And the US dollar is stronger than I thought it would be, having broken its downtrend line from October. It now looks like it could bounce a lot higher (bad for gold) although it's currently stalled at its declining 50-dma.

Jeff Bailey : 1/4/2007 1:53:51 PM

YM 12,511

Jane Fox : 1/4/2007 1:47:56 PM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Rep. Nancy Pelosi on Thursday became the first woman to be elected speaker of the House as the 110th Congress convened under Democratic control. The Californian's election to the top position, which also leaves her second in the line of succession to the presidency, was assured after Democrats achieved a House majority in last November's midterm elections, ending 12 years of Republican rule. "This is an historic moment for the Congress, and for the women of this country. It is a moment for which we have waited more than 200 years," Pelosi said in remarks prepared for delivery on the House floor. Pelosi reiterated the Democratic campaign pledge of a "new direction" on a range of issues, particularly the war in Iraq.

Jeff Bailey : 1/4/2007 1:47:40 PM

YM short lower stop alert to 12,526

YM 12,498

Jeff Bailey : 1/4/2007 1:39:52 PM

YM 12,511 ... mid-point of day's range.

Jeff Bailey : 1/4/2007 1:37:49 PM

YM 12,519

Jane Fox : 1/4/2007 1:33:17 PM

Here is an interesting article on the housing market and more in-line with reality. Link

Keene Little : 1/4/2007 1:32:54 PM

All 3 indices on my chart (NQ, ES and YM) were pushed down simultaneously and are now bouncing together. Makes me wonder if that selling spike was a head fake move.

Jane Fox : 1/4/2007 1:31:23 PM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- MetroPCS Communications Inc. on Thursday filed to raise up to $1.125 billion in an initial public offering, helping the IPO market kick off the year with a major deal from the telecom sector.

MetroPCS Communications marks a rare planned entry from a billion-dollar-value company after only six deals of that size came to market out of about 200 IPOs in 2006.

While telecom companies have been rare in the IPO market, investors have been receptive to any businesses with profitable track records.

MetroPCS, a Dallas-based provider of wireless broadband personal communication services with 2.6 million subscribers, reported net income of $70.6 million on revenue of $1.1 billion in the nine months ended Sept. 30.

Jeff Bailey : 1/4/2007 1:29:30 PM

SLB $59.45 -2.25% ... WEEKLY S2 at $60.47. For most part, was resistance for morning "bounce" to $60.68.

Jane Fox : 1/4/2007 1:28:42 PM

There has been no TICKS alerts today. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/4/2007 1:28:14 PM

PTR $132.69 -3.77% ... set to test its morning low of $131.81. WEEKLY S2 at $129.18.

Jeff Bailey : 1/4/2007 1:27:19 PM

XOM $72.550 -2.15% ... moves to new intra-day low.

Jane Fox : 1/4/2007 1:25:36 PM

AD volume to new daily lows here and I will never be long while the AD volume is bearish.

Jeff Bailey : 1/4/2007 1:24:31 PM

Sell Program Premium ... YM 12,511 : SPY $141.28

Jeff Bailey : 1/4/2007 1:24:04 PM

YM short alert ... let's go short the YM here at 12,519 , tight stop at 12,537, target 12,445.

Keene Little : 1/4/2007 1:22:29 PM

Have we got the quiet before the storm here? Will program trading kick in at 1:30? Traders want to know.

Jeff Bailey : 1/4/2007 1:14:52 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/4/2007 1:03:01 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/4/2007 12:56:52 PM

Cisco Systems (CSCO) $28.09 +1.29% Link ... notable new 52-weeker at the NASDAQ.

CSCO announced today that it has agreed to pay $830 million in cash and stock to acquire privately held IronPort Systems, a maker of antispam and antivirus security products. Deal is expected to close in 3Q of fiscal 2007.

Jane Fox : 1/4/2007 12:51:49 PM

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Harriet Miers on Thursday submitted her resignation as White House counsel, according to media reports. The White House said Miers' resignation takes effect Jan. 31, and a search for her successor is under way, the Associated Press reported. Bush nominated Miers in October of 2005 to replace retiring Supreme Court Justice Sandra Day O'Connor, but she met with resistance from conservatives who questioned her qualifications. The White House eventually withdrew the nomination.

Keene Little : 1/4/2007 12:51:30 PM

We've been consolidating sideways for the past two hours. This is following a rally leg so it normally means we'll see a continuation higher. If it were to break down instead we could see another rush for the exit doors.

Jane Fox : 1/4/2007 12:50:06 PM

Harriet Miers resigns as White House counsel

Jeff Bailey : 1/4/2007 12:27:49 PM

Geron Corp. (GERN) $8.92 +1.82% Link ...

Keene Little : 1/4/2007 12:31:10 PM

Yields have pulled back sharply today as bond prices rally. TYX (30-year) has pulled back to its 20 and 50-dma's which cross today near 4.71 (the low so far, just hit, is 4.711. Two equal legs down from its December 28th high is at 4.703. If yields are to head higher still (bond prices lower), this is where we should see a reversal.

While the daily chart for yields looks bearish (oscillators rolled over), this would be the place to try a short on the bonds (ZN or ZB). TNX (10-year yield) bounced off its 50-dma at 4.598 (low so far is 4.593). Its 20-dma is a tad lower at 4.590.

Jeff Bailey : 1/4/2007 12:26:16 PM

StemCells, Inc. (STEM) $3.00 +12.78% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/4/2007 12:25:04 PM

DEMOCRATS REGAIN CONTROL IN CONGRESS

DJ- Democrats to elect Rep. Nancy Pelosi as the first woman to run the House of Representatives as the party takes control of both chambers of Congress for the first time in 12 years, with early focus on boosting both the minimum wage and stem cell research.

Jeff Bailey : 1/4/2007 12:18:23 PM

Canada Gets New Environment Minister In Cabinet Shuffle

DJ- Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper Thursday named John Baird as the country's new environment minister, taking over from the embattled Rona Ambrose who has been criticized for her performance in the portfolio.

Ambrose was appointed minister of intergovernmental affairs. Vic Toews, previously the justice minister, took over the post of Treasury Board president vacated by Baird.

Rob Nicholson, formerly government leader in the House of Commons, is the new justice minister.

The Cabinet shuffle comes amid speculation that there will be a general election later this year. It's nearly a year since the Conservatives defeated the Liberals at the last election, but the party doesn't have a majority of the 308 seats in the House of Commons. Minority governments in Canada have typically survived for about 18 months.

The Conservatives have 124 seats and the Liberals 102. The Quebec-based separatist Bloc Quebecois and the left-leaning New Democratic Party have 51 and 29 seats, respectively. Two seats are held by independents.

Monte Solberg is the new Human Resources Minister and Diane Finley becomes Minister of Citizenship and Immigration, swapping their previous portfolios.

Peter Van Loan, who was only recently appointed Intergovernmental Affairs Minister, was moved to the post of government leader in the House of Commons.

Harper also appointed several secretaries of state, or junior ministers.

Keene Little : 1/4/2007 12:02:10 PM

The bulls have their work cut out for them today when I look at SPX. They need to get it back above its broken uptrend line from July, currently near the 50% retracement of yesterday's decline at 1418.64. So far we've got a 3-wave bounce up to that trend line and if it should fall back from here it will look like a corrective bounce back up for a kiss goodbye on that trend line. That's what the bears want to see happen. So bulls need SPX back above 1419 and to stay above.

Jeff Bailey : 1/4/2007 11:52:34 AM

BJ'S WHOLESALE FALLS AFTER SLASHING 4Q EPS VIEW

DJ- Shares fall 5% after wholesale club operator lowers its earnings outlook for its fiscal 4Q to earnings of 17-25c a share from 83-87c a share, citing lower than planned sales and margins and the establishment of certain reserves and charges.

BJ $30.45 -4.42% Link ...

Keene Little : 1/4/2007 11:38:27 AM

It looks like we could be consolidating for another push higher in which case keep an eye on ES 1428-1430 for resistance and a short play setup (for a scalp play since I'm not yet sure which way we're headed next).

Jane Fox : 1/4/2007 11:37:53 AM

Internals are not giving me a lot here. AD volume is under 0 which is bearish but it is currently not making new daily lows. The VIX, which I don't want to put too much emphasis on today, is making new daily lows. TRIn is mostly neutral at 1.15.

Jane Fox : 1/4/2007 11:22:14 AM

... Although it is making new daily lows.

Jane Fox : 1/4/2007 11:21:58 AM

VIX is really weird today so I am not going to use it. Link

Jane Fox : 1/4/2007 11:19:43 AM

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Microvision Inc. (MVIS) shares rose 19% to $3.66 in Thursday morning trade. The Redmond, Wash.-based company announced that it plans to unveil during the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas an ultra-thin, miniature full-color projection display that is small enough to be embedded in hand-held devices. Microvision said the projection display prototype was developed in collaboration with one of its manufacturing partners.

Jeff Bailey : 1/4/2007 11:19:33 AM

SPX NH/NL currently 9:2 and matches a daily total from 12/22/06.

Jeff Bailey : 1/4/2007 11:18:51 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 1/4/2007 11:11:19 AM

The techs are looking downright bullish this morning, having nearly wiped out yesterday's swift decline. Too bad they're not being joined by the others, including small caps. Unless the techs can ignite some bullish fervor in the other markets I'm wondering if the techs will get dragged back down. Often times techs lead the way so we'll see if that holds true into the close today.

Jeff Bailey : 1/4/2007 11:02:50 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Keene Little : 1/4/2007 11:01:49 AM

With ES daily and weekly pivots right around 1430 that would be another potential resistance level.

Keene Little : 1/4/2007 11:00:16 AM

If we're going to just consolidate rather than start another rally leg then two equal legs up from yesterday's low is at ES 1426.75 and YM 12544. If the 2nd leg up (the one off this morning's low) makes it up to 162% of the yesterday afternoon's bounce then we get upside Fib projections at ES 1433 and YM 12591.

Keene Little : 1/4/2007 10:55:59 AM

SPX's broken uptrend line from July is currently just above 1418 or about 3 points higher than here so that would put ES resistance at about 1428 which is its broken uptrend line from November 28th.

Jeff Bailey : 1/4/2007 10:47:33 AM

EIA Weekly Crude Oil Ending Stocks SPR unchanged for 7th-straight week at 688.6 million barrels.

Jeff Bailey : 1/4/2007 10:46:03 AM

EIA Weekly Heating Oil (>500 ppm Sulfer) build of 939,000 barrels.

Jeff Bailey : 1/4/2007 10:44:49 AM

EIA Weekly Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel Stocks build of 1.5 million barrels.

Jeff Bailey : 1/4/2007 10:44:17 AM

EIA Weekly Ultra Low Sulfer Diesel Stocks build of 1.78 million barrels.

Jeff Bailey : 1/4/2007 10:42:31 AM

EIA Weekly Distillate Stocks build of 1.97 million barrels.

Jeff Bailey : 1/4/2007 10:41:58 AM

EIA Weekly Gasoline Stocks build of 5.7 million barrels.

Jeff Bailey : 1/4/2007 10:41:23 AM

EIA Weekly Crude Oil Stocks draw of 1.3 million barrels.

Keene Little : 1/4/2007 10:40:07 AM

So far the test of yesterday's lows (for ES and YM whereas NQ is much stronger today) are holding so we'll see if the bulls can make something of this little bounce so far. Short term I'd say this morning's lows are the line in the sand for the bull/bear debate here--short below, long above.

Jane Fox : 1/4/2007 10:38:40 AM

WE have a sticky VIX today.

Jane Fox : 1/4/2007 10:38:16 AM

My VIX is now stuck at 12.12

Jane Fox : 1/4/2007 10:37:28 AM

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- The Energy Department said crude supplies fell for a sixth week, dropping 1.3 million barrels to 319.7 million for the week ended Dec. 29. But motor gasoline supplies rose 5.6 million barrels to 209.5 million. Distillate stocks climbed 2 million barrels to total 135.6 million barrels. Following the news, February crude dropped $1.72 to $56.70 a barrel. February reformulated gasoline fell 5.09 cents to $1.498 a gallon and February heating oil traded at $1.569 a gallon, down 1.91 cents.

Jane Fox : 1/4/2007 10:37:14 AM

* Crude supply down 1.3 mln brls last week: Energy Dept.
* Distillate supply up 2 mln brls: Energy Dept.
* Gasoline supply up 5.6 mln brls: Energy Dept.

Jane Fox : 1/4/2007 10:35:50 AM

Keene mine was "stuck" 12.21 as well. It is now 12.12.

Jeff Bailey : 1/4/2007 10:33:44 AM

CRB Index (CEC:CRY) 296.38 -0.70% Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/4/2007 10:32:35 AM

Ecuador's 2006 Inflation +2.87% Vs. +3.14% in 2005

Ecuador's December '06 Inflation -0.03% Vs. November

Keene Little : 1/4/2007 10:31:08 AM

Just after I posted that VIX popped up to 12.39.

Jeff Bailey : 1/4/2007 10:30:42 AM

VIX 12.42 (10:30:14 AM EST)

Keene Little : 1/4/2007 10:30:30 AM

Well, I take that back. VIX is stuck at 12.21 since 10:00 AM.

Jane Fox : 1/4/2007 10:29:58 AM

Other than NQ all markets have used their PDLs as support today. Link

Keene Little : 1/4/2007 10:28:48 AM

Jane, I'm getting VIX on QCharts.

Jeff Bailey : 1/4/2007 10:30:25 AM

Jane ... my VIX.X is not coming through either with sideways ticks of 12.21 (10:29:31 AM EST is last trade I show). I am getting bid/offer of $1.70 x $1.80 on the VIX-BV though, last $1.75. Suggests VIX.X somewhere around 12.50.

Jeff Bailey : 1/4/2007 10:27:00 AM

RETAILERS POST MODEST DECEMBER SALES GROWTH

DJ- Wal-Mart's December same-store sales rise 1.6%, matching Saturday's estimate, and retailer expects U.S. same-store sales to be up 1%-2% in January. Target's same-store sales increase 4.1%, falling short of the 4.5% expected. It sees sales gaining 3.5% to 5.5% in January. Gap cuts its earnings forecast and says it is reviewing brand strategies for Gap and Old Navy.

WMT $47.67 +0.25% Link

TGT $56.96 -0.38% Link

GPS $19.33 +0.10% Link

Jane Fox : 1/4/2007 10:25:54 AM

Keene and Jeff are you two getting a VIX or is it just Tradestation (me) that is not.

Jane Fox : 1/4/2007 10:24:41 AM

I would not be long here. Link

Jane Fox : 1/4/2007 10:17:13 AM

I am not getting a VIX ARGHHH!!!

Keene Little : 1/4/2007 10:16:59 AM

NAR chief economist David Lereah says "That is another indicator that home sales likely bottomed-out in September" while Lennar is willing to take a $500M hit to the bottom line by selling a stake in their land ownership because they don't see a housing market bottom on the horizon. I think I'd prefer to believe Lennar (and the other home builders saying the exact same thing) rather than some economist working for the NAR.

Tab Gilles : 1/4/2007 10:23:30 AM

Sears Holdings (SHLD) Retail sales for December weak. Link

Watch for support at $165.

Daily: Targeting $155 @ 200 ma & ema. Link

Weekly Link

PnF: Bearish downside PO $152 Link

Jane Fox : 1/4/2007 10:13:03 AM

Dow industrials decliners outnumber advancers 22 to 8

Jane Fox : 1/4/2007 10:10:51 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The nonmanufacturing sectors of the U.S. economy continued to expand at a brisk pace in December, the private Institute for Supply Management reported Thursday. The ISM nonmanufacturing index fell to 57.1% from 58.9% in November, close to expectations. Readings over 50% in the diffusion index indicate growth. The new orders index dropped to 54.4% from 57.1%. The prices paid index rose to 59.1% from 55.6%.

Jane Fox : 1/4/2007 10:10:03 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - A leading indicator of existing-home sales dipped 0.5% in November, the third straight decline, the National Association of Realtors reported Thursday.

The pending home sales index fell to 107.0 November from 107.5 in October. The index is based on sales contracts for existing homes signed in November. Sales of existing homes are reported in a separate release once the sale closes, usually within a month or two.

The real estate trade group said the index is pointing to stabilization in the housing market.

The pending sales index is down 11.4% from November 2005. In July, when the index hit a three-year low of 105.6, the year-over-year decline was 16%.

"Because there is a stronger parallel between changes in the index from a year ago and the actual pace of home sales in coming months, the index is pointing toward fairly stable home sales in the near future," said NAR chief economist David Lereah, in a press release. "That is another indicator that home sales likely bottomed-out in September."

Jeff Bailey : 1/4/2007 10:08:07 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List at this Link

Jane Fox : 1/4/2007 10:07:48 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Orders for U.S.-made factory goods rose 0.9% in November on strong demand for computers, transportation equipment and defense goods, the Commerce Department reported Thursday. But excluding transportation, orders for U.S. goods fell by 0.5% in November, suggesting slack in the overall manufacturing sector. Orders for durable goods rose 1.6% in November, down from the 1.9% estimated by the government a week ago. Orders for nondurables, meanwhile, were flat.

Keene Little : 1/4/2007 10:07:39 AM

Watch to see if this test of yesterday's lows holds with a bullish divergences. Otherwise trying to buy it is too risky.

Jeff Bailey : 1/4/2007 10:03:18 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 1/4/2007 10:01:10 AM

VIX is trudging to new daily lows as the AD volume is making new daily lows as well. This is causing our lack of direction.

Jane Fox : 1/4/2007 9:49:46 AM

The TRIN's range yesterday was 1.41 to 1.00 not what you would call bullish and today I see the TRIN's high is once again 1.41.

Keene Little : 1/4/2007 9:47:51 AM

Techs are getting a nice lift back up while ES and YM wallow in the mud. But if the techs continue up that should pull the others up with it.

Jane Fox : 1/4/2007 9:43:48 AM

Interesting that yesterday the bulls had the ball but they fumbled it and the bears were able grab it and run for a touchdown. Then even though the bulls gained a little field position late in the day the bears have the ball again today.

Jane Fox : 1/4/2007 9:40:38 AM

AD line is a very bearish -1197 and AD volume well below 0 and falling. So far this is a "Don't even think long" day.

Keene Little : 1/4/2007 9:34:39 AM

Fading the opening move (up) would have worked again. The spike up at the open has been reversed sharply and now watch for a potential test of the overnight low. The volatility from yesterday (whipsaws) is likely to continue into today.

Jane Fox : 1/4/2007 9:28:21 AM

The last time Crude was trading at 56.875 was July '04

Jane Fox : 1/4/2007 9:26:41 AM

Crude to new yearly lows.

Jane Fox : 1/4/2007 9:16:17 AM

The $ broke it PDH overnight and is looking down right bullish lately, which is not good for gold. Although gold did not break its PDL overnight, I think there is a very good chance that it will intraday.

Crude broke its overnight low and Gold and Crude have a direct relationship ie they both move together. This relationship is not as strong and the Gold/$ relationship but it does give you more reason to think Gold will break its PDL. Link

Keene Little : 1/4/2007 9:17:30 AM

After slowly settling for most of the overnight session ES was down 7 points from its overnight high by 5:00 AM but since that time there's been a very steady bid back up. It almost looks like they'll get it to the flat line by the open. As usual YM is getting the better lift and is already at the flat line. We could see a test of the overnight lows today but short term it looks ready for a bounce so we'll see if there's more new money coming in to help lift the market back up after yesterday's hammering.

Jane Fox : 1/4/2007 9:11:37 AM

The equity markets started the overnight session and fell until about 5:30EST at which point they all turned and proceeded to march back upward. NQ's march has almost been to its overnight highs. I would watch the overnight lows for support and it they break there is a good chance the PDLs will as well. Link

Jane Fox : 1/4/2007 8:57:09 AM

MarketWatch WASHINGTON -- The number of Americans filing applications for unemployment benefits rose last week to its highest level since the beginning of the holiday season, indicating a weaker job market.

The number of workers filing for state unemployment benefits for the first time rose by 10,000 to 329,000 in the week ended Dec. 30, the highest amount since Nov. 25.

Jobless claims are often volatile during the holiday season, since some businesses hire workers part-time to meet extra demand.

The report comes a day before a key unemployment report for November is scheduled to be released.

Claims in the previous week were revised higher, to 319,000 compared with the initial estimate of 317,000.

Market Monitor Archives