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Jeff Bailey : 1/9/2007 1:59:10 AM

Dow Diamonds (DIA) $124.14 ... Daily Interval Chart with September, October, November, December and January Monthly Pivot retracement at this Link

The WEAKEST the DIA has been since September is a trade at first level BELOW MONTHLY Pivot. For January, that would be a close below $122.49.

Jeff Bailey : 1/9/2007 1:45:23 AM

YM 5-minute interval chart with QCharts' Daily Pivot Levels turned on Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/9/2007 1:37:55 AM

YM 15-minute interval chart with QCharts' Daily Pivot Levels turned on Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/9/2007 1:31:16 AM

YM 30-minute interval chart at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/9/2007 1:21:13 AM

YM 60-minute interval chart at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/9/2007 12:55:12 AM

YM Pivot Matrix for Tuesday at this Link

Daily S1-R1 and S2-R2 ranges almost identical for a 3rd-straight session. Day traders may want to utilize Stochastics tool.

Keene Little : 1/8/2007 11:34:02 PM

Tuesday's pivot tables: Link and Link

OI Technical Staff : 1/8/2007 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 1/8/2007 6:20:41 PM

Compania Anom Venezuela (VNT) $16.80 -14.37% ... remains halted.

Jeff Bailey : 1/8/2007 6:20:37 PM

DJ- Venezuela's CANTV Hasn't Been Notified About Nationalization (update to 03:28:42)

Jeff Bailey : 1/8/2007 6:13:35 PM

NYSE Summation Index ($NYSI) 20-point box chart at this Link ... slips, or is "pulled" lower to +760.

$NYSI from 12/27/06 wrap Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/8/2007 6:10:04 PM

NASDAQ Summation Index ($NASI) 20-point box chart at this Link ... slips further lower to -40.

$NASI from 12/27/06 wrap Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/8/2007 5:59:19 PM

Major Market Bullish % (Souce: Dorsey/Wright & Assoc.) and NYSE, NASDAQ, SPX NH/NL Measures Table (since 11/14/06) found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/8/2007 5:30:51 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Note: At the conclusion of today's trade, the NASDAQ 5-day NH/NL ratio reverses lower by 3-boxes (66.00%).

Keene Little : 1/8/2007 5:17:31 PM

If NQ drops tomorrow and we get two equal legs down from last Thursday's high would be at 1781.50 (NDX 1766.67). A 50% retracement of last week's rally is at 1781.75 (NDX 1765.39) so good Fib correlation at that level for support to end the pullback and launch the next rally leg.

Jeff Bailey : 1/8/2007 5:09:29 PM

Notable "doji" for the QQQQ $43.88 +0.06% today.

Keene Little : 1/8/2007 4:23:07 PM

If GOOG does in fact break below your blue neck line at 451, would you assume that your third wave high near 510 needs to be relabeled as the wave 5 high - particularly if we close the gap and break the red rising trendline? If we close the gap, would you the call the gap an exhaustion gap, thereby portending the recent action in GOOG as very bearish? What is your downside price target and project EW count to the downside?

Referencing the GOOG chart I posted earlier (3:37), from a pure EW count it's not violated until price drops back below 390 but by that time a large 4th wave pullback would look so far out of whack that I wouldn't trust the count (it wouldn't pass the "smell" test). So I'd answer your first question yes, I'd then call a top to GOOG at its November high, at least for many months.

With the number of gaps to the upside for GOOG, if the November high is it then I'd say the last gap up in October was very likely the exhaustion gap. Looking at the bearish divergences on MACD and RSI in November and December certainly makes it look that way. What the bears want to see on GOOG is a gap down that leaves an island reversal where all the candles from late October to the present are left as an island in space. You can't get a better reversal signal than that.

Downside projections for any decline would be the center of the sideways triangle that formed from January to October 2006, at 400. That might be wave-A and would likely be a good spot for a big bounce in wave-B. But then wave-C down into the 38-62% Fib retracement zone (354 down to 255) would be logical targets. The 2005 summer lows around 275 would also be a logical support level. This is all conjecture of course since GOOG is still looking bullish but those are some ideas.

Jeff Bailey : 1/8/2007 4:22:54 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/8/2007 4:08:07 PM

YM 12,490 ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/8/2007 4:05:44 PM

YM short cover alert 12,492

Keene Little : 1/8/2007 4:04:52 PM

Best guess for ES and YM tomorrow is similar to that for NQ--a small run up tomorrow morning to a high just above this afternoon's and then another decline to finish the pullback from last week's high.

Jeff Bailey : 1/8/2007 3:59:32 PM

YM short lower stop alert to 12,495

YM 12,491

Jeff Bailey : 1/8/2007 3:55:55 PM

YM short lower stop alert to 12,500

YM 12,495

Keene Little : 1/8/2007 3:54:36 PM

Based on the larger price pattern for NQ I've been thinking it will rally to new highs but shorter term (tomorrow) I'm not so sure it's ready to do that. The climb off Friday's low looks very corrective (like a bear flag) and that has me thinking we could see another leg down as part of a larger pullback from last Thursday's high. I've got an upside potential Fib target for this bounce at 1814.25 but it could then turn right back down and head towards 1780 before setting up its next rally leg.

Jeff Bailey : 1/8/2007 3:53:49 PM

YM short finger on the button alert

YM 12,495

Jeff Bailey : 1/8/2007 3:48:53 PM

YM short lower stop alert to 12,507.

YM 12,496

Keene Little : 1/8/2007 3:47:41 PM

And of course add in weekly pivot at ES 1423.50.

Keene Little : 1/8/2007 3:45:06 PM

Between monthly pivot at 1424.25 and daily R1 at 1425.25 this is pivot hell for bulls to get through. They're running the gauntlet here and they're getting their butts kicked. But they just might make it through.

Keene Little : 1/8/2007 3:43:13 PM

ES is now testing its broken downtrend line. If it drops back underneath 1422 then we'll know this market is just whipping around to catch stops on both sides of the market.

Keene Little : 1/8/2007 3:41:13 PM

The neckline on GOOG, instead of the way I have it on my chart, could instead be a straight line across the top of its gap. If GOOG breaks that support (about 452) there's nothing but air below it.

Keene Little : 1/8/2007 3:37:29 PM

notice the almost-perfect wide H&S on goog, and the big gap still to be filled? lynne

Thanks Lynne, good observation on GOOG. Here's the daily chart showing what Lynne has pointed out: Link The neckline is along the lows of November and December. The gap fill is the one left in October, down at 426.06. Now we'll watch to see if the current bounce stalls out and forms the right shoulder. GOOG is nearing overbought so it just might.

But, and there's always a but, I've got an EW count that calls for a new high in GOOG before the rally from August is finished. Notice the 3-wave pullback from the November high--that's corrective. It's a rough count that I've shown before (a few weeks ago was my last update) but if we get a retest of November's high, or a slightly higher high, it should be accompanied by all kinds of bearish divergences. I guess it will depend on whether the broader market manages to rally higher into opex week which is the way I'm currently leaning.

Jeff Bailey : 1/8/2007 3:32:22 PM

YM short alert 12,504 , stop 12,516, target 12,475

Jeff Bailey : 1/8/2007 3:28:42 PM

Venezuala's CANTV ADRs Plunge After Chavez Nationalizes Co.

DJ- Shares in Venezuela's CA Nacional Telefonos de Venezuela (VNT), or CANTV, plunged Monday after President Hugo Chavez said he will nationalize the company.

The American Depositary Receipts of CANTV, Venezuela's top telecommunications company, plunged 14.2% to $16.84 before being halted on the New York Stock Exchange around 3 p.m. EST. The NYSE's official halt price was $18.90 per ADR.

Immediately before the announcement, shares of CANTV were up 0.7% at $19.69.

Investors weren't expecting such a drastic move, but Chavez has consolidated power around his figure and has the ability and track record for making these types of decisions, said George Raby, a New York-based ADR trader at Jefferies & Co.

"It doesn't surprise me," Raby said.

Chavez didn't give a timeline for the nationalization, so it remains to be seen whether this announcement is "rethoric" or whether it will actually be carried out, he said.

Jeff Bailey : 1/8/2007 3:26:49 PM

Compania Anom Venezuela (VNT) $16.84 -14.16% ... halted for trade.

Keene Little : 1/8/2007 3:16:52 PM

If we've got higher to go now, any retest of the broken downtrend line at ES 1422 should hold.

Jeff Bailey : 1/8/2007 3:13:47 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 1/8/2007 3:12:43 PM

Looks like a break of the downtrend line in progress. Could be a run higher into the close today.

Jane Fox : 1/8/2007 3:04:38 PM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - U.S. consumer debt increased a seasonally adjusted $12.3 billion, or a 6.2% annual rate, during November, after falling $1.3 billion, or 0.6% annualized, in October, the Federal Reserve reported Monday. It was the strongest growth in three months. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch were expecting credit to rise by $4.5 billion in November. Most of the increase in November came in credit card debt, which surged 11.9% annualized, or $8.6 billion. Nonrevolving credit, such as auto loans, increased by $3.8 billion, or a 3% annual rate, in November.

Jane Fox : 1/8/2007 3:04:25 PM

* Nov. credit card debt up 11.9% annualized
* Nov. consumer credit up 6.2% annualized
* Nov. consumer credit up $12.3 bln vs. $4.5 bln expected

Jeff Bailey : 1/8/2007 3:03:03 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/8/2007 3:02:04 PM

Buy Program Premium ... YM 12,484 : SPY $141.10

Jeff Bailey : 1/8/2007 2:54:18 PM

St. Jude Sees Q4 Above Street Expectations

DJ- Shares gain 5.7% after medical-device company pre-announces 4Q revenue above Wall Street expectations, signaling a possible turnaround in the market for its key implantable defibrillator device.

STJ $37.00 +5.71% Link ...

Keene Little : 1/8/2007 2:52:17 PM

If you shorted ES 1423 I'd now have my stop at 1424, two ticks to a new high. This should start a choppy decline to a new low (perhaps around 1410) if the descending wedge that I showed earlier (11:05) is in play. If it proceeds higher instead then it will be a legitimate break of the downtrend line from last week.

Jeff Bailey : 1/8/2007 2:48:34 PM

Speaking of last 20-days ...

INDU -0.26%, SPX -0.21%, NDX +0.26%, NYA.X -0.25%, COMPX +0.18%

Jeff Bailey : 1/8/2007 2:43:44 PM

CDE ... for those that may be playing a "dead cat bounce" from Friday's commentary/observation. I should now note WEEKLY Pivot $4.61 and MOTNLY S1 $4.64 as well as MONTHLY 19.1% retracement at $4.64.

Might be tough to see $4.75.

Jeff Bailey : 1/8/2007 2:34:47 PM

CDE -13.93% last 20-days.

SIL -11.34% last 20-days.

Jeff Bailey : 1/8/2007 2:34:07 PM

Apex Silver (AMEX:SIL) $14.68 -2.58% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/8/2007 2:33:21 PM

Coeur D' Alene Mines (CDE) $4.52 +1.11% ... edges to highs of session.

Keene Little : 1/8/2007 2:29:40 PM

ES tagged its weekly pivot at 1423.50 so trying a short here with a stop around 1425 is a good play.

Jane Fox : 1/8/2007 2:28:42 PM

Interestingly we have not had any TICKS +800 readings today. That comment should be enough to get them going.

Jane Fox : 1/8/2007 2:27:44 PM

VIX just spiked down and right after we get new daily highs.

Jeff Bailey : 1/8/2007 2:26:09 PM

President Bush To Address Nation Wednesday

DJ- President Bush will address the nation at 9 p.m. EST Wednesday about his new approach for the war in Iraq. Bush is expected to announce an increase of up to 20,000 additional U.S. troops.

Jeff Bailey : 1/8/2007 2:23:07 PM

INDU 12,422 +0.19% Link ... can "see" the tie between falling commodity price having "less of a tax."

Morgan Stanley Cyclical Index (CYC.X) 888.73 +0.24% Link ...

Jane Fox : 1/8/2007 2:19:52 PM

I have fixed my link in the 2:19 post

Jane Fox : 1/8/2007 2:19:28 PM

TRIN is still out of sync with the VIX and AD volume but at 1.06 I am not worrying about it. The bulls have the ball my friend. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/8/2007 2:16:46 PM

One "pattern" in the MONTHLY Pivot matrix looks to be repeating itself today. INDU/DIA test of MONTHLY Pivot finds buyers and a decent reversal back higher.

Keene Little : 1/8/2007 2:11:11 PM

I noticed that calculated M3 money supply took a nosedive last week, or at least the rate of growth did. So the Fed was less active last week in creating money and the market pulled back. Link

Hmm, makes one wonder about who's been propping this market up the past several months. Might the Fed have been helping their banker friends make their end-of-year numbers? Nah, that would be considered collusion and we know we don't have that between our Fed and the banks (cough). Why, that would be downright unethical. Perhaps the Russians aren't the only ones with oligopolies. But that's all conspiracy stuff and I don't want to be accused of being a conspiracy theorist.

Jeff Bailey : 1/8/2007 2:09:34 PM

EMC Corp. (EMC) $14.18 +4.18% Link ... also strong on the IBM upgrade. Could be vulnerable to some unhedged short squeeze on 11/14/06 convertible.

Jeff Bailey : 1/8/2007 2:06:55 PM

IBM Upped To Buy at UBS

DJ- Computer giant upgraded by UBS to "buy" from "neutral," which cites improving fundamentals in IBM's core businesses and the belief that acquisitions in the software market will expand growth rates and margin expansion.

IBM $99.25 +1.87% Link

Note: On 12/09/05 ($87.50), UBS downgraded IBM to "neutral" from "buy"

Jeff Bailey : 1/8/2007 1:57:33 PM


DJ- Analyst Jason Goldberg raises 4Q earnings estimates for the commodities exchanges in light of improved rates per contract and lower expenses. He also cuts earnings forecasts for IntercontinentalExchange and Nasdaq.

BOT $157.94 +0.76% Link

CME $533.15 +0.73% Link

ICE $126.50 +1.55% Link

Keene Little : 1/8/2007 1:54:11 PM

I just noticed a slight error on my Fib projection for this leg up in ES. It's slightly above 1423 which gets it closer to weekly pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 1/8/2007 1:51:09 PM

A/D lines positive now

NYSE 1,766/1,391

NASDAQ 1,530/1,434

Keene Little : 1/8/2007 1:51:06 PM

ES weekly pivot is at 1423.50 so that's the other level I'd watch for resistance.

Keene Little : 1/8/2007 1:48:58 PM

Now that ES has made it over the 1420 hurdle it should act as support on a pullback. In the meantime, keep an eye on that Fib target at 1422.75 (and downtrend line from last week). That could be the end of this run and we'll start another chop leg down to a final low for the pullback (withink a bullish descending wedge).

Jeff Bailey : 1/8/2007 1:44:15 PM

Buy Program Premium ... YM 12,472 : SPY $140.94

Jeff Bailey : 1/8/2007 1:43:38 PM

CRB Index ($CRB) 290.88 -0.07% Link ... Did see trade at 290 on Friday and again today. A spread tiple bottom sell signal. Becomes a focal point of traders and investors not only on "inflation" or lack of it, but global demand for various raw materials, which may be cooling as global growth cools.

Keene Little : 1/8/2007 1:37:22 PM

It looks like Faber's call for a bullish run on September 22nd was rather prophetic. The S&P 500 ran from 1310 to 1430 after his call for higher prices.

Jeff Bailey : 1/8/2007 1:29:26 PM

StockCharts.com's S&P 500 Bullish % ($BPSPX) Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/8/2007 1:25:10 PM

Marc "Dr. Doom" Faber ... 09/25/03 Link and recently a bullish call 09/22/06 Link

Marc Eckelberry : 1/8/2007 1:23:27 PM

VIX and VXN at top of envelopes is what is giving support and could make for a short covering rally. But it could also signal a major shift if the uptrend in volatility continues. Watch 10 day ema support for VIX on any downswing.

Jeff Bailey : 1/8/2007 1:16:09 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 1/8/2007 1:07:50 PM

As I look around at different indices and sectors I'm not seeing anything very exciting. Most markets seem to be listless today. Don't force trades just to trade. So far there's not much setting up here to get me interested. If anything though it still looks like we should expect more upside, even if it's only a little higher. The pullback continues to look corrective.

Jeff Bailey : 1/8/2007 1:03:01 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 1/8/2007 1:02:25 PM

QQQQ 44 is max pain with call resistance. Looks like some 43 trading next week if bulls stay this optimistic. I still think we will close the Nov gap at 41.90/42.10.

Marc Eckelberry : 1/8/2007 12:58:43 PM

Small caps down means worries about rates. So far, ER is holding up well, which would suggest we do not fall apart today and maybe even rally ES to the gap. But bulls are just buying time. The SPX double top on opening day is the same as in January 1994, when we corrected 10% after two -10 VIX closes in December and a similar double top.

Marc Eckelberry : 1/8/2007 12:55:19 PM

So far, they are keeping TNX barely below 4.7, but if we climb above again, I would get a little worried. The Feds are talking tough and that is not good news.

Marc Eckelberry : 1/8/2007 12:53:20 PM

The VIX has reversed at these levels in December. It is important for bulls that it do so today or tomorrow. Trading above 12 is seen by many as a sell signal.

Jeff Bailey : 1/8/2007 12:48:38 PM

Applied Materials (AMAT) $18.99 +1.71% Link ... challenges its October relative high.

Jeff Bailey : 1/8/2007 12:46:24 PM

Fed's Kohn: Still Too Early To Relax Inflation Concerns

DJ- Though recent inflation data are "encouragingly consistent" with the Federal Reserve's forecast for a gradual decline, it's too still too early for officials to relax their worries about price pressures, Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Donald Kohn said Monday.

Meanwhile, while housing remains a downside risk to economic growth, recent employment data suggest "no signs of cumulating weakness" in manufacturing or services sectors, and the economy should expand near its potential by the second half of 2007, Kohn said.

"I believe it is still too early to relax our concerns about whether the run-up in price pressures in the spring and summer of last year is truly unwinding and whether it is unwinding rapidly enough to forestall a pickup in inflation expectations," Kohn said in prepared remarks to the Atlanta Rotary Club.

Kohn's views are consistent with the Fed's most recent policy statement and suggest officials are in no hurry to lower interest rates. Officials last month held the federal funds rate unchanged at 5.25% for a fourth-straight meeting but also maintained their tightening bias should price pressures persist.

Kohn welcomed recent inflation reports showing a decline in both headline and core inflation, and he said his economic forecast is consistent with a "gradual decline" going forward.

But he warned of the need to be "cautious about extrapolating trends from a couple of months of data."

Marc Eckelberry : 1/8/2007 12:42:04 PM

This is starting to feel and trade like a bear market.

Marc Eckelberry : 1/8/2007 12:34:25 PM

Faber rarely gets it wrong: Link
Bloomberg -- Marc Faber, who predicted the U.S. stock market crash in 1987, said global assets are poised for a "severe correction" and it's time to sell. "In the next few months, we could get a severe correction in all asset markets," Faber said in an interview with Bloomberg Television in New York. "In a selling panic you should buy, but in the buying mania that we have now the wisest course of action is to liquidate."

Marc Eckelberry : 1/8/2007 12:23:27 PM

Now all of a sudden, with the fall in crude oil prices, this heavily weighted in oil executives administration is going to start worrying about global warming.
QM is bouncing around but key support is 55.30. I still think they could bring the March contract down to 55, which would be 54 or so for February, the current contract. But watch the tape and 55.30 (February).

Jane Fox : 1/8/2007 12:19:32 PM

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Crude-oil futures fell under $56 a barrel Monday, reversing course with weather still warmer-than-usual in the Northeast and an early estimate for this week's U.S. supply reports calling for the first climb in crude inventories in seven weeks as well as an across-the-board rise in petroleum products.

"The oil market is extremely volatile as traders try to sift through all of the news and figure out what Mother Nature has in store next," said Kevin Kerr, editor of Global Resources Trader, a newsletter service of MarketWatch, the publisher of this report.

U.S. temperatures are still warmer than normal for this time of year, setting record highs across large parts of the Northeast over the weekend.

Jane Fox : 1/8/2007 11:57:49 AM

Hopefully Hansel is ready to hold back the dyke. Link

Keene Little : 1/8/2007 11:47:35 AM

ES has broken its downtrend line from Thursday's high, gave it a brief test on the dip to 1416.25 and is now trying to push higher again. So far so good for a possible push up to just shy of 1423. Still has to get through 1420 though. Another drop below 1416 and we could just be stuck in the same trading range as Friday afternoon's.

Jane Fox : 1/8/2007 11:41:11 AM

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- February gold fell $1.10 to $605.80 an ounce Monday morning, retreating from an earlier high of $611.10 as oil prices fell. February oil dropped $1.01 to $55.30 a barrel, pressured by continued mild weather in the Northeast as well as bets that this week's supply data will show a rise in crude supplies. March silver was up 1 cent at $12.24 an ounce after trading as high as $12.42.

Jane Fox : 1/8/2007 11:40:54 AM

EGads Crude is dropping like a Wylie coyote off a cliff.

Marc Eckelberry : 1/8/2007 11:39:39 AM

Watch NYSE 9005.

Tab Gilles : 1/8/2007 11:33:48 AM

Profund positions: Ultra Short OTC (USPIX) & UltraShort Small Cap (UCPIX) As per last post on Profunds 12/29/06 11:49 AM

Profunds has distributed dividends and Cap gains... Link

Adjustment to funds factoring having entered equally $1,000 at 1/2 positions and then reinvesting distributions...

USPIX $14.06, 71.124 shares; $13.10, 76.336 shares, distribution on 12/29/06 @ $0.58 per share, $13.48 reinvested price 5.7 shares.

Total USPIX shares 153.166 average cost basis $13.05 : Closing price 1/5/07 $13.12 Link

UCPIX $14.66, 68.213 shares; $13.85, 72.202 shares; distrb. $0.81 per share 8.656 shares at $13.14.

Total UCPIX shares 149.075 cost basis $13.42; Closing price 1/5/07 $13.81. Link

$NAHGH/$NALOW/$NDX This market is poised to either trade sideways or correct.

Updated chart Link

Jane Fox : 1/8/2007 11:29:42 AM

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Elron Electronic Industries Ltd. (ELRN) said Monday it has named Arie Mientkavich as chairman of the board. Mientkavich replaces Ami Erel, president and chief executive of Discount Investment Corp., a 49% shareholder of Elron. Erel will remain on the board, the Israeli tech-investment company said.

D'ya think this companay should change its name?

Keene Little : 1/8/2007 11:29:12 AM

ES made it up to 1419.75 which was exactly two equal legs up in its bounce off this morning's 1413 low. So far all moves have been very corrective and I see no intraday trend yet. If it can break above 1420 then I'd watch 1422.75 for resistance.

Jeff Bailey : 1/8/2007 11:22:27 AM

US Oil Fund (USO) $47.17 -1.37% ... reversing morning gains. Probes Friday's lows ($46.89).

Jeff Bailey : 1/8/2007 11:20:16 AM

NYC Mayor: Gas Smell Source Unkown, Appears Not Dangerous

DJ - New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg said Monday that the source of a mysterious gas smell that covered a wide area of the city remains unknown, but there was no indication that air is unsafe to breathe.

Bloomberg, speaking during a televised news conference, said there was a small gas leak in the city during the morning, but that it was too small to account for a strong and widespread smell, which was also detected across the Hudson River in New Jersey.

Bloomberg said "do not show any high concentration of natural gas that would give us cause to be concerned."

Jeff Bailey : 1/8/2007 11:16:46 AM

11:05 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/8/2007 11:07:17 AM

11:05 Market Watch found at this Link

Keene Little : 1/8/2007 11:05:48 AM

The way ES is chopping its way lower I'm getting the impression the pullback from mid December may not be finished yet. If ES can push a little higher today and get up to its downtrend line from January 3rd, at a Fib projection for a leg up to 1422.75, then we could see this chop lower again as it finishes a potential descending wedge for the January pullback. Link

If this descending wedge idea is correct we will then see another rally to a new market high before I'd be comfortable calling a market top. The alternative to this pattern is very bearish and calls for a strong move down soon. Based on the 3-wave pullback in December and then 3-wave bounce to the January 3rd high, I'm leaning towards this A-B-C pullback which calls for another rally once the pullback is complete.

Keene Little : 1/8/2007 10:49:42 AM

ES has stalled at its downtrend line from Thursday's high through Friday afternoon's high, currently at 1417.75. If it can get above it then we could see some more rally. In the meantime both sides are having trouble not having their stops get tagged.

Jane Fox : 1/8/2007 10:43:45 AM

TRIN climbs as the VIX is falls so now the TRIN is warning the bulls to beware. Oh my aching head!

Jeff Bailey : 1/8/2007 10:40:54 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List at this Link

Jane Fox : 1/8/2007 10:38:17 AM

All that little drop did was shake out a bunch of longs (me included) and it is now free to advance as much as it wants.

Jeff Bailey : 1/8/2007 10:32:19 AM

Swing trade call place order to sell alert ... Place an order to sell the three (3) VIX Feb 12.50 Calls (VIX-BV) for $2.10.

Jane Fox : 1/8/2007 10:27:31 AM

VIX and AD volume are bearish but the TRIN at 0.78 is telling me the bears don't have all that firm a grip on the ball and the bulls could intercept at any time. Link

Keene Little : 1/8/2007 10:17:05 AM

I'm not sure what the market is doing here since it appears to be chopping its way lower. That's either an ending pattern to the downside or else it's getting ready to rip to the downside. If it's an ending pattern watch ES 1413 which is where the trend line along last week's two lows is located.

Keene Little : 1/8/2007 9:59:29 AM

I'm keeping an eye on NQ because the pullback against last week's rally may not be complete. As I had shown in the chart last night (see below) we could get another leg down in which case I'd look for two equal legs down from Thursday's high. Currently that would be at 1777.

Keene Little : 1/8/2007 9:58:32 AM

So far the initial move out of the gate was the head fake move again and support held near ES 1415 so if long I'd have my stop at a new daily low now--1414.25. We're still in whipsaw country here so keep your risk small.

Jane Fox : 1/8/2007 9:50:29 AM

Both ES and Ym have tagged their respective PDLs, ER has broken its PDL but NQ has broken its PDH. Link

Jane Fox : 1/8/2007 9:45:54 AM

VIX opened above its PDR but is making new daily lows so that tells me the bears should beware. TRIN is a bullish 0.75.

Jane Fox : 1/8/2007 9:45:03 AM

AD line hit a low of -719 but is now at -443. AD volume has just printed above 0. Neither side has a firm hold on the ball.

Keene Little : 1/8/2007 9:38:46 AM

It's looking like we could get an early test of the ES 1415 area to see if support is going to hold or not.

Jane Fox : 1/8/2007 9:31:23 AM

I probably should have taken a short position in the Russell instead of the Qs because ER is the weakest of all four. It never did break its May highs, has now closed below its 50EMA and has confirmed a H&S pattern. Link

Jane Fox : 1/8/2007 9:28:41 AM

NQ's chart is not as clear as ES's nor YM's but has closed below its 50EMA although it has now retraced back and closed above the 50. NQ is weaker than both ES and YM and is why I have a short position in the Qs. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/8/2007 9:25:16 AM

Belarus Accused of Blocking Oil Exports (update) AP Story Link

Jane Fox : 1/8/2007 9:22:53 AM

Same story for YM. As you can see YM is a little stronger because it has not yet tagged its 50EMA. Link

Jane Fox : 1/8/2007 9:20:00 AM

ES has not closed below its 50EMA since 7/24/06.

Jeff Bailey : 1/8/2007 9:19:37 AM

Weekly/Monthly Index Pivot Matrix found at this Link

Jane Fox : 1/8/2007 9:18:11 AM

A close below the lower trendline, which just happens to be the 50EMA as well, would have me thinking ES could very well revisit its May highs at 1365. 1370 is a 38.20% retracement from the June/July lows as well. Link

Keene Little : 1/8/2007 9:12:20 AM

Assuming we see the market gap up this morning, a pullback to close the gaps would also be a test of the overnight lows so watch for support there to try a long. ES's pre-market high at 1420 is the same resistance it was finding Friday afternoon so that's obviously a line of resistance the bulls will need to break. Any break below 1415 could see a continuation lower.

Jane Fox : 1/8/2007 9:06:40 AM

Last week Gold closed below its support and once again I bailed but this time I used the big contract and not the emini. A close above support turned resistance would have me on the alert but I will have to have more evidence the support will hold before I take another long position in Gold. This chart is not giving me any hints that Gold will close above its resistance any time soon though. Link

Jane Fox : 1/8/2007 9:01:04 AM

Crude is edging upwards because the Saudis said they are committed to the agreed upon 158,000 barrels/day production cuts in February in addition to the November 380,000 barrels/day cut.

TNotes retraced about 50% of the drubbing it took on Friday but overnight was not able to add to those gains. Link

Jane Fox : 1/8/2007 8:51:11 AM

Good morning all. Overnight the equity markets mostly traded sideways but the new overnight highs at 8:30 across the board give them a little bit of a bullish flavor. I can't make any kind of predictions for what the intraday session will look like until I see the internals. Link

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