Option Investor
Archive
HAVING TROUBLE PRINTING?
Printer friendly version
Marc Eckelberry : 1/10/2007 7:33:57 AM

NAZ new high/ new lows divergence: Link

Keene Little : 1/9/2007 11:24:46 PM

Wednesday's pivot tables: Link and Link

OI Technical Staff : 1/9/2007 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 1/9/2007 8:54:04 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/9/2007 8:50:32 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/9/2007 4:37:05 PM

Alcoa (AA) $28.52 +0.14% ... released for trade ... $29.74 extended.

Jeff Bailey : 1/9/2007 4:28:39 PM

Alcoa (AA) $28.52 +0.14% ... still halted. No time schedule for resumption of trade.

Jeff Bailey : 1/9/2007 4:16:30 PM

YM 12,484 ... smack in the middle of today's range.

Jeff Bailey : 1/9/2007 4:13:54 PM

Alcoa (AA) Earnings Press Release Link

Consensus was $0.65/share on Revenue of $7.63B

Jeff Bailey : 1/9/2007 4:10:07 PM

Alcoa (AA) $28.52 +0.14% ... halted on earnings.

Keene Little : 1/9/2007 4:09:57 PM

I'm still waiting for the next leg down to finish the pullback. We could get an early pop at the open but then a continuation lower. A rally above ES 1425 would suggest something more bullish but I don't see anything yet that negate my expectation for the move down first. SPX 1400 area should be the downside target/support.

Keene Little : 1/9/2007 3:44:22 PM

Two equal legs up fro YM from this morning's low is at 12507 which is also at its downtrend line from last week through this morning's high. If tagged I'd try a short from there.

Keene Little : 1/9/2007 3:40:09 PM

Back up and knocking on the monthly pivot door (1424.25) and a potential retest of this morning's high. If there are no more bulls then this bounce will likely not get any further. The Boyz have 20 more minutes to hold this in positive territory.

Jeff Bailey : 1/9/2007 3:37:27 PM

SPY $141.33 +0.09% ... back at MONTHLY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 1/9/2007 3:33:04 PM

RUT.X 778.54 +0.19% ... the comeback kids.

Jeff Bailey : 1/9/2007 3:32:29 PM

YM 12,492 ... highs of the afternoon.

Keene Little : 1/9/2007 3:30:29 PM

Watch for a retest of the afternoon high to see if it's accompanied with bearish divergences and if so, and it rolls back over, then it's another shorting opportunity. But end-of-day shenanigans is a definite possibility.

Jeff Bailey : 1/9/2007 3:18:43 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 1/9/2007 3:15:03 PM

If ES 1423 continues to hold this down I'm still looking for another leg down tomorrow to finish the pullback. If this is the correct interpretation of the month-long pattern then we'll be set up for a rally into opex week. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/9/2007 3:02:44 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/9/2007 2:46:54 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List at this Link

Keene Little : 1/9/2007 2:46:29 PM

If you shorted ES up near 1423 I'd lower my stop now to 1423.25, two ticks to a new afternoon high. It shouldn't get there if we've started the next leg down. If it makes another high now I suspect it will just keep on truckin' in the northbound lane.

Jeff Bailey : 1/9/2007 2:30:40 PM

PIRA Group Cuts '07 Crude Outlook To $59/Bbl Vs. $64/Bbl

DJ- PIRA Energy Group, a long-time bullish New York-based energy consultancy, has downgraded its crude oil price outlook for 2007 by $5 a barrel, underscoring the negative sentiment that's pulled benchmark crude prices down some 9% year-to-date.

In a report reviewed by Dow Jones Newswires, PIRA said it cut its 2007 forecast for West Texas Intermediate crude to $59 a barrel from $64 a barrel previously.

"The reductions are much larger for the first half of 2007 than for the second half," the report said, echoing other analysts' views. "The first half of the year lacks a significant price catalyst to grip the market and reverse the impact of relatively weak fundamentals."

The often market-moving report came in the wake of a brutal start to the year for benchmark oil prices, depressed by unusually warm weather in the U.S. Northeast and hefty doubts about the extent to which OPEC is complying with production cuts.

The front month February contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange was trading Tuesday afternoon at $56.20 a barrel, down 19 cents and off its intraday and 19-month low of $53.88 a barrel.

Several major forecasters and Wall Street Banks have also recently lowered their 2007 outlooks. Last week, Goldman Sachs cut its 2007 forecast for WTI to $69 a barrel from $72 a barrel.

PIRA said the WTI contract on the Nymex could reach $50 a barrel "on any given day in the first half of the year," despite what it terms relatively strong supporting factors in the medium term.

The consultancy said the widening gap between the spot contract and futures prices is not only pressuring prices but also limiting fresh investment in the market. This can discourage funds that track major indexes such as the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index from allocating more capital to these asset classes.

"The refining outlook is also much less bullish than it has been because of recent demand weakness, new capacity and expanding biofuel production," PIRA analysts said.

Higher prices for outer month contracts can cost oil investors dearly, as those holding the most current contract tend to roll them into the next month to maintain their positions. This means investors get hit both with losses in the current contracts and with the rollover to outer month, testing their mettle when prices are sliding.

PIRA noted that political risk factors are also fading as a catalyst for higher prices.

"While geopolitical risks continue to offer substantial upside to prices, there are already substantial output losses in Nigeria, Iraq has been able to sustain southern exports without interruption and conflict over Iran's nuclear developments looks less likely, and if it does, looks like a 2008 event," the report said.

Meanwhile, confusion about production from the Organization on Petroleum Exporting Countries is further pressuring prices, PIRA said.

"Weak demand growth because of extremely warm winter weather and sub-trend U.S. economic growth undermines not just oil demand but also the demand for inventory," PIRA noted. "Rebounding non-OPEC supply as U.S. and Canadian production recover from extraordinary output declines the year earlier is another bearish element."

The consultancy said relatively high oil stocks, along with a quickly approaching second quarter - traditionally the weakest demand period of the year - all contribute to downward pressure on prices.

Keene Little : 1/9/2007 2:19:16 PM

ES came within a tick of resistance at 1423. A short from there should work. To prevent a whipsaw stop though you need to keep your stop above this morning's 1425 high. We shouldn't get above there if there's another leg down coming.

Keene Little : 1/9/2007 2:06:01 PM

Jane, I'm still getting price quotes on QCharts.

Jeff Bailey : 1/9/2007 2:05:05 PM

Buy Program Premium ... YM 12,480 : SPY $141.10

Jane Fox : 1/9/2007 2:00:07 PM

I am not getting data for $RUT and $SPX. Anyone else having the the same issue?

Keene Little : 1/9/2007 1:55:51 PM

With the TRIN working its way higher as this bounce has progressed, with a-d volume barely making any headway to the upside, it looks like the bounce will fail.

Keene Little : 1/9/2007 1:53:41 PM

Otherwise if this continues higher again then it's looking like they're fishing for stops along the way.

Keene Little : 1/9/2007 1:53:02 PM

Hmm, looks like a liquidity spike--goose it to get some buyers (and short covering) going in order to push up the volume so that big money could sell into it. If ES drops back below 1417 then we might have seen the high for the bounce.

Keene Little : 1/9/2007 1:48:17 PM

ES pushing higher still so now watch 1423 for resistance. If it manages to break that then we of course still have resistance in the same 1425-1425 area that's been holding this down. Any break above that level and we'll probably be seeing some program buys associated with it (the Boyz doing their thing to get this back up).

Jane Fox : 1/9/2007 1:47:59 PM

Oh my goodness gracious the rescue has arrived to help our poor Hansel. TICKs +800.

Jeff Bailey : 1/9/2007 1:47:10 PM

YM 12,475 ... comes to DAILY Pivot.

Jane Fox : 1/9/2007 1:44:21 PM

So far Hansel has held back the dyke. Link

Keene Little : 1/9/2007 1:32:47 PM

ES hit the old downtrend line from last week (the one through last Thursday's high instead of the one through this morning's high) at 1418.75 so watch for resistance to hold here for a continuation lower. A short here with a stop at 1419.75 is all I'd give it. The downtrend line through this morning's high is at 1423.

Jeff Bailey : 1/9/2007 1:31:04 PM

Apple Computer (AAPL) $90.11 +5.44% Link ... Huuuuge reversal after morning low of $85.15.

Jeff Bailey : 1/9/2007 1:18:12 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Jane Fox : 1/9/2007 1:06:53 PM

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Apple Computer Inc. (AAPL) Chief Executive Steve Jobs on Tuesday unveiled the iPhone, its new touch-screen mobile phone that will be able to play music and take pictures, among other features. "Apple is going to reinvent the phone," Jobs said during his keynote speech at Macworld. The iPhone will have a 3.5-inch diagonal screen and be 11.6 millimeters thick. It will sync with iTunes and have a 2 megapixel camera. The phone will use new "multi-touch" technology, Jobs said.

Jeff Bailey : 1/9/2007 1:02:07 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Keene Little : 1/9/2007 1:01:35 PM

It's a pretty well known stock tip that once a stock reaches $90 it is very likely to make a run to $100 before profit taking hits. IBM hit $90 in October, floundered a bit and then took off in December. It tagged $100 today (high so far is 100.05) and is at the top of a parallel up-channel for price action since December's run up started. It's also showing bearish divergences against its October high. Could be a good time to nibble on some IBM puts. The caution there is that if the broader market does indeed rally I suspect IBM will also.

Keene Little : 1/9/2007 12:51:03 PM

Now watch for a Fib retracement of this morning's drop (from either here or after one more minor new low). We should get some kind of 3-wave bounce followed by another leg down later this afternoon. So far the pattern for ES that I showed earlier (10:14) is playing out. Of course Jeff raises an interesting point--if big money wants to save the "First 5-day pulse" as he calls it, there's no telling what kind of manipulation we might see later this afternoon.

Jane Fox : 1/9/2007 12:45:53 PM

I think Apple is going to change the way we watch movies. Soon we will not have to drudge down to BlockBusters and pick out a DVD and drudge back to return it, we will get all our movies digitally just like the theaters. I can hardly wait.

Jeff Bailey : 1/9/2007 12:44:57 PM

YM 12,454 ... MONTHLY 61.8% (12,545) pretty much marks December's close.

Jeff Bailey : 1/9/2007 12:43:40 PM

Could be some fireworks after 01:00 PM EST. Last day for "First 5-day pulse"

Jane Fox : 1/9/2007 12:43:26 PM

* Apple changes iTV name to Apple TV
* Apple TV device has 40GB hard drive, stores 50 hrs video
* Apple TV device holds movies, TV shows, music, photos

Jeff Bailey : 1/9/2007 12:42:24 PM

YM 12,449

Jeff Bailey : 1/9/2007 12:41:13 PM

Coeur D' Alene (CDE) $4.25 -4.92% ... after plunge to $4.07 as MONTHLY S2 $4.37 gave way.

Jeff Bailey : 1/9/2007 12:39:50 PM

iShares Silver (AMEX:SLV) $124.05 +1.53% ... moves into recent gap from Friday's open. WEEKLY Pivot just above at $124.30.

Jane Fox : 1/9/2007 12:35:12 PM

If short try to hold on because we are getting into a "Don't even think about been long" kind of day.

Keene Little : 1/9/2007 12:33:18 PM

NQ looks to be leading to the downside today. The current leg down looks like it could be wave-C of an A-B-C pullback from last week's rally. The first downside target for it is 1785 which is where the pullback would have two equal legs down, and would essentially be a retest of Friday's low (if it holds). The next downside targets are Fib retracements at 1781.75 and 1773.50 (50% and 62%, resp.) and then finally 1766 which is where the 2nd leg down would be equal to 162% of the 1st leg (wave-C = 162% of wave-A). Link

The descending wedges for ES and YM and the potentially bullish pattern for NQ lead me to believe that this decline will set up a buying opportunity. Some breaks of longer term uptrend lines have me seriously questioning this bullish interpretation so caution is advised. Watch SPX 1400 area for support to help gauge whether or not we're going to bottom soon. Otherwise the decline has just begun.

Jane Fox : 1/9/2007 12:29:12 PM

So much for no further downside.

Jane Fox : 1/9/2007 12:28:55 PM

* Apple CEO Jobs: Nov. iPod sales had 62% market share
* Apple CEO Jobs: Paramount to sell movies on iTunes
* Apple CEO Jobs says more than 2B song sold on iTunes

Jeff Bailey : 1/9/2007 12:21:22 PM

YM 12,447

Jane Fox : 1/9/2007 12:12:37 PM

My 50 TICK charts are now showing a reverse H&S so although the internals are still bearish I don't think we are going to see further downside for a while now. In other words, the easy trading is over.

Jane Fox : 1/9/2007 12:09:09 PM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The National Association of Realtors is launching a $40 million advertising campaign to encourage Americans to buy houses amid the ongoing housing slump.

The Realtors' campaign includes $26 million in television advertising, about double what the group spent in 2006. Television ads will begin running Jan. 15, while new radio ads will begin to air Jan. 29.

NAR President Pat Vredevoogd Combs said Tuesday at a press conference that now is a good time for consumers to buy a home, given low interest rates and high inventories. "You can walk into a marketplace and have a choice what you buy," Combs said.

The ad campaign comes as the U.S. real estate market is weathering a prolonged downturn. The Realtors' latest data show sales of existing homes down 10.7% over the past year.

New homes sales, meanwhile, have fallen 15.3% in the past year, according to the latest government figures. However, sales rose in November, the Commerce Department reported late last month.

Jeff Bailey : 1/9/2007 12:08:23 PM

U.S. To Express Concern About Venezuela Energy Plays: DOE Secretary

DJ- U.S. Energy Secretary Samuel Bodman said Tuesday he has real concerns about Venezuela's move to nationalize its power and telecommunications industries, and exert government control over part of the oil industry.

Bodman said the U.S. government wants to make clear that it opposes any action by Venezuela that would undermine the sanctity of contracts.

"We can express concern because it is real," Bodman said. "I think the goal is to enforce the sanctity of contracts. There is a possibility that (what Venezuelan President Hugo) Chavez has talked about would violate that."

Jeff Bailey : 1/9/2007 12:06:56 PM

EIA: OPEC 10 December Crude Output Steady Vs. November Levels

Jeff Bailey : 1/9/2007 12:06:09 PM

EIA: Q1 '07 US Oil Use Seen Up 2.1% Vs. Q1 '06

Jeff Bailey : 1/9/2007 12:05:20 PM

EIA: Q1 US Oil Use Forecast Cut 0.5% To 20.8 Million B/D

Jeff Bailey : 1/9/2007 11:53:36 AM

YM 12,457 after test of MONTHLY Pivot. Sellers did get some traction on break below DAILY Pivot.

Jane Fox : 1/9/2007 11:52:50 AM

$RUT has already closed below its 50EMA and because of that I bot IWM puts this morning.

Marc Eckelberry : 1/9/2007 11:54:47 AM

If you must go long, then this was the time on the ES test of 1416 and NQ 1800. When AD lines are not clear, you are in a range and you must buy S and sell R and not trust momentum. Traders are still stuck in the fall bull run. This is not the same game. Personally, I am not bothering much with the long side and I just patiently wait for rallies to short, that way when the correction hits, I will be in. And it will happen. The only time I will hold on to a long is on a +1000 addec day.

Jane Fox : 1/9/2007 11:51:19 AM

Same date for the $SPX.

Jane Fox : 1/9/2007 11:50:33 AM

Remember ES has not closed below its 50EMA since 07/24.

Jane Fox : 1/9/2007 11:49:13 AM

Hansel is getting really tried so the rescue team better show up real soon or the dam will break.

Jeff Bailey : 1/9/2007 11:47:06 AM

VIX-BV $1.60 x $1.75 ... Those "long" this volitility should have order to sell at $2.10.

Jeff Bailey : 1/9/2007 11:44:37 AM

VIX 12.20 +1.66% ... DAILY Pivot here.

Keene Little : 1/9/2007 11:44:14 AM

The move down from this morning's high is now a 5-wave move so expect to see a bounce that corrects that leg down. After the bounce we should get another leg down to finish the decline from last week.

Jeff Bailey : 1/9/2007 11:43:56 AM

YM 12,455 ... nearing MONTHLY Pivot.

Jane Fox : 1/9/2007 11:42:43 AM

And ER breaks to new daily lows. I love it when the internals talk to me.

Marc Eckelberry : 1/9/2007 11:41:41 AM

Traders should also learn to not chase rallies when small caps are lagging. It might all change, but for now bulls are not able to gain momentum for very long.

Jeff Bailey : 1/9/2007 11:39:28 AM

CBOE Oil Index (OIX.X) 609.62 -2.15% ... probes its rising 200-day SMA.

Jeff Bailey : 1/9/2007 11:38:59 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Jane Fox : 1/9/2007 11:37:30 AM

... and the internals agree.

Jane Fox : 1/9/2007 11:37:21 AM

I trade the 50 TICK charts and I see ER hovering at daily lows which tells me we have further downside.

Marc Eckelberry : 1/9/2007 11:36:05 AM

Pretty basic day to go short. NDX double top was clear at 1800 and only novice traders went long with the AD lines negative at that point. Interest rates are climbing, commodities are diving, shorting rallies is the game until proven otherwise. A break above NQ 1816 negates the bearishness and sets up 1826, but bulls will have to conquer 1811/1812 first. ES weekly pivot sold off right when NQ hit that double top. Another sign. Bulls need 1424.25 back badly.

Jeff Bailey : 1/9/2007 11:28:56 AM

YM 12,467 ... slips below DAILY Pivot, testing downward trend that was broken to upside yesterday. (from 1/03/07 relative high)

Tab Gilles : 1/9/2007 11:27:56 AM

$WTIC & XLE Oil closed in 2005 at $61.04 and in 2006 at $61.05. Currently trading at $54.50, we could see the 2005 lows tested. Link

The XLE found support at $50 in 2006. Link Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/9/2007 11:22:46 AM

This could get a little more bearish intra-day than I thought.

Jeff Bailey : 1/9/2007 11:20:58 AM

SLB $57.43 -2.11%

Jeff Bailey : 1/9/2007 11:20:14 AM

PTR getting "hit" too $127.35

Jeff Bailey : 1/9/2007 11:19:24 AM

YM long stop alert 12,484

Jane Fox : 1/9/2007 11:19:23 AM

AD volume to new daily lows and VIX is climbing. That is a formula for shorts.

Jeff Bailey : 1/9/2007 11:13:36 AM

YM 12,498 ... testing short-term upward trend from yesterday morning's low.

Jane Fox : 1/9/2007 11:09:21 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The federal government's budget deficit fell by about $35 billion to $85 billion in the first quarter of the fiscal year compared with a year ago as the monthly surplus in December widened to about $40 billion, the Congressional Budget Office estimated Monday.

In the first quarter, which ended Dec. 31, revenues rose by $43 billion, or 8%, and outlays grew $8 billion, or 1%.

Revenues in December were about $18 billion higher, or 7% more, than in December 2005, CBO estimated. Corporate tax receipts grew by $13 billion, or 19%.

The official budget numbers will be released on Friday by the Treasury Department.

Outlays in December were about $11 billion lower this year, primarily because the government received about $13 billion from last summer's auction of telecommunications licenses. The receipts are classified as offsetting outlays, rather than as revenues, in the government's accounting.

Jeff Bailey : 1/9/2007 11:02:20 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Keene Little : 1/9/2007 10:59:20 AM

If we were going to break the downtrend line from last week we should get an accleration higher. The fact that we're still floundering around this line doesn't give me any bullish feelings here. But, not feeling confident enough in either direction I'm sitting here flat as I watch to see what it's doing. This is whipsaw country and I'd rather not risk my capital during times like this.

Jeff Bailey : 1/9/2007 10:29:42 AM

YM long alert ... go long the YM here at 12,515, stop 12,484, target 12,570

Jane Fox : 1/9/2007 10:20:23 AM

I need to just keep my fingers away from the keyboard today.

Jane Fox : 1/9/2007 10:19:46 AM

Looking at the tajectory of the AD volume is enough to keep me from the long side although a relatively neutral AD line tells me the volume could change direction quickly. The bears have the ball but they do not have field position. Link

Keene Little : 1/9/2007 10:14:28 AM

If the descending wedge is still in play then we could see a drop to weekly S1 at ES 1407 (or daily S2 at 1408.50) today/tomorrow. It's trying hard to hold onto its downtrend line that it broke above yesterday so there's still a chance that this will continue higher. But if it breaks down then I think we'll see the new low before setting up the next rally leg (probably into opex if it plays out this way). Link

Jane Fox : 1/9/2007 10:12:01 AM

BOSTON (MarketWatch) -- A pair of residential builders Tuesday said they're still seeing home orders decline as buyers anxious about falling home prices cancel their house purchases. D.R. Horton Inc.'s sales orders for new homes fell 23% during the first quarter from a year earlier, the company said.

The drop comes as home builders facing higher buyer cancellations in midst of a U.S. housing slowdown offer more inducements to sell houses.

Meritage Homes Corp. said quarterly net sales orders fell 42% to 1,201 homes from a fourth-quarter record of 2,072 in the year-ago period. As a percentage of quarterly gross sales orders, cancellations for the period ended Dec. 31 rose to a record 48%, the Scottsdale, Ariz.-based builder said Tuesday. Meritage (MTH) estimated pre-tax land and inventory charges of $55 million to $65 million, which would reduce quarterly earnings by $1.25 to $1.50 a share, although the company expects to deliver a fourth-quarter profit.

Other builders have also booked impairment charges on unexercised land options and real estate that's fallen in value.

Jane Fox : 1/9/2007 10:09:34 AM

AD volume making new daily lows so don't expect this itty biddy rally to last.

Jeff Bailey : 1/9/2007 10:03:37 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Keene Little : 1/9/2007 10:02:58 AM

Bonds look bearish in that they've been doing that sideways/up thing (bear flag) since they spiked down last Friday. So far it looks like we're going to get another leg down soon. Stocks have been doing the same thing and that gives me a bit of a bearish feeling for both stocks and bonds right now.

Keene Little : 1/9/2007 9:50:13 AM

ES daily pivot at 1420 is also potential support and weekly pivot at 1423.50 and monthly pivot at 1424.25 continue to be formidable walls for the bulls to break through.

Keene Little : 1/9/2007 9:48:29 AM

ES is threatening to break back below its uptrend line from last week. The DOW is relatively stronger than SPX this morning but any break down in SPX should be followed by the DOW. ES 1421 (SPX 1412) needs to hold.

Jane Fox : 1/9/2007 9:37:30 AM

Intraday ES and YM are not able to break their PDHs although they did overnight.

Jane Fox : 1/9/2007 9:35:10 AM

AD line -5 and AD volume slightly positive. How neutral can you get?

Jane Fox : 1/9/2007 9:30:40 AM

All markets open within their respectvie PDRs.

Keene Little : 1/9/2007 9:25:44 AM

Keeping with the DOW, if it drops back below 12400 then the upside scenario would look more doubtful. In either case I think this is clearly a market to scalp small moves until a direction becomes clearer.

Jane Fox : 1/9/2007 9:24:31 AM

Hansel was able to hold back the dyke yesterday but I don't think he will hold on much longer unless he gets some help from the Plunge Protection Team and we all know the PPT is very good at fixing holes in damns. Link

Keene Little : 1/9/2007 9:19:49 AM

I've been thinking that yesterday's bounce would lead to another leg down in the descending wedges that are apparent on ES and YM but with the break of the downtrend lines, and this morning's positive open (so far), we might have seen the bottom for the pullback. If ES retests and holds above its downtrend line (1421.50 at the open) then we could see a continuation of the rally. YM's downtrend line is even lower due to its different open and close times but using the DOW, it pulled back and closed on its downtrend line yesterday.

Jane Fox : 1/9/2007 9:17:49 AM

Here is your chart of Gold's big contract and support turned resistance has indeed been resistance. Link

Jane Fox : 1/9/2007 9:15:37 AM

Here is a chart that I have posted many times showing the relationships between Gold and the $, Oil and the swiss franc. As you can see all three are telling me to not be long gold. Link

Jane Fox : 1/9/2007 9:10:15 AM

Gold and Oil down and the US$ up. These are all in sync. Link

Jane Fox : 1/9/2007 9:05:28 AM

Both ES and Ym broke their respective PDHs overnight but ER and NQ were not quite able to attain that feat - yet. Link

Jane Fox : 1/9/2007 8:59:25 AM

* Feb. crude futures down 11% since end of 2006
* Feb. crude low of $53.88 is lowest seen since June 2005

Jane Fox : 1/9/2007 8:56:27 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- A 12% rally on Monday in China Life's U.S.-listed shares foreshadowed a doubling of the company's massive 1.5 billion share offering in Shanghai on Tuesday.

In its first day of trading in mainland China's biggest bourse, the offering closed at 38.93 yuan, more than double the offering price of 18.88 yuan. In the U.S., China Life (LFC) rose $5.84 to end at $53.91 on Monday.

The bullish Shanghai debut failed to provide much support in Hong Kong, however, where the listing fell 4.7%, confounding brokers who had expected shares to track Shanghai action.

Jane Fox : 1/9/2007 8:55:26 AM

Good morning all. For those of you who have to drive to work it will be a very good morning. Crude hit a low (using the emini) of 53.875/bl overnight.

Jane Fox : 1/9/2007 8:51:15 AM

BOSTON (MarketWatch) -- D.R. Horton Inc.'s sales orders for new homes fell 23% during the first quarter from a year earlier, the company said Tuesday.

The drop comes as home builders facing higher buyer cancellations in midst of a U.S. housing slowdown offer more inducements to sell houses. The Fort Worth, Texas-based builder (DHI) said net sales orders for the quarter ended Dec. 31 dropped to 8,771 homes from 11,463 in the year-ago period. The value of the orders fell to $2.92 billion from $3.17 billion.

D.R. Horton also said its cancellation rate for the quarter was 33%, down from 40% in the fourth quarter.

"Although our cancellation rate decreased ... we continue to experience higher-than-normal cancellation rates and an increased use of sales incentives in many of our markets," Chairman Donald Horton said in a prepared statement.

Market Monitor Archives