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Keene Little : 1/15/2007 10:28:57 PM

At the end of the day Friday I had shown an idea for ES that suggested it might have topped at Friday's closing high but any push higher out of the gate on Monday will negate that (if a move higher holds). If we see a quick move higher and then down for the rest of the day then there's a decent possibility that we've seen the high. It's clearly too early to make that call and I'll need to see how impulsive vs. corrective a decline looks.

In the meantime, with a few Fib projections for the DOW pointing to the 12630 area as a potential high (SPX 1438) this 60-min chart shows we're not far from that happening and could happen on Monday. Getting some follow through to the upside from last week's rally would by typical. Link

If price were to follow the path that I show on the above chart, I'd feel comfortable calling a top (again). But as I said, it will be the pattern of the decline that will be important. For now the trend is still strongly up and that's what needs to be respected, and traded. It takes a break below DOW 12350 to suggest the bears have taken over.

Keene Little : 1/15/2007 10:12:21 PM

Monday's pivot tables: Link and Link

OI Technical Staff : 1/15/2007 9:59:59 PM

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