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Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2007 11:20:17 PM

YI up a penny at $12.91

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2007 11:18:46 PM

YG down 10 cents at $633.30

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2007 11:12:03 PM

YM off 8 at 12,631

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2007 11:09:36 PM

Forex Currency (Live) Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2007 11:08:26 PM

USD/JPY 120.85-120.88

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2007 11:07:07 PM

USD/JPY 120.796-120.829

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2007 11:06:12 PM

USD/JPY 120.637-120.667

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2007 11:04:18 PM

Forex News: The Bank of Japan has informally told the government that it would not announce an increase in interest rates this month, Tokyo Broadcasting System (TBS) reported.

TBS said it was rare for the central bank to inform the government of its intentions before they are announced publicly.

The Bank of Japan has independence in setting monetary policy, but it has been under pressure from the government not to raise interest rates too hastily in case it derails the economic recovery.

The central bank will announce its decision on interest rates when the two-day meeting of its policy board ends this afternoon here.

At present the overnight call rate is 0.25 pct.

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2007 11:01:29 PM

Bank of Japan Leaves Rates Unchanged at 0.25%

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2007 10:56:22 PM

USD/JPY 120.77-120.80 +0.10, or 0.11%

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2007 10:47:15 PM

DJ- Japan 30-year: 2.3% Coupon At 98.29; Issue Price To Yield 2.38%

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2007 10:44:10 PM

US Dollar Index (DXY) 84.79 ... down 0.19 point from its 03:00 PM EST close.

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2007 10:39:43 PM

China's Central Bank Drains CNY176B From Market This Week

DJ- China's central bank continued to mop up a large amount of funds from the money market this week through its open market operations, though the net tightening of CNY176 billion was less than the CNY200 billion drained last week.

The People's Bank of China said Thursday it sold CNY30 billion worth of three-month bills at 2.5023%, the same as the rate on the three-month bills it sold last week. It also sold CNY10 billion worth of 21-day repurchase agreements at 1.90%.

The PBOC carries out regular open market operations Tuesdays and Thursdays.

Tuesday, the PBOC sold CNY210 billion worth of one-year bills at 2.7961% and CNY90 billion worth of seven-day repos at 1.25%.

This week, CNY164 billion worth of bills and repos mature, compared with CNY160 billion last week.

The PBOC has been aggressively draining funds through its open market operations as other tightening measures it has taken have failed to change the excessive liquidity conditions in the money market, traders say.

The PBOC raised banks' reserve requirement ratio by a further 50 basis points Monday, following three such hikes and two interest rate increases last year.

China's broadest measure of money supply, M2, was up 16.94% at the end of December from a year earlier, outpacing the central bank's full-year 2006 target of a 16% expansion.

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2007 10:15:50 PM

Wednesday's Forex Economic Recap at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2007 10:09:05 PM

Knockout Punch for Foreman?

DJ- George Foreman Enterprises, Inc. (the "Company") (OTC Bulletin Board: GFMEE), was informed today of the determination of the Listing Qualifications Hearings Panel that its securities are not eligible for continued quotation on the OTC Bulletin Board and that all quotations of the Company's securities on the OTCBB will be deleted effective with the open of business on Friday, January 19, 2007, because the Company has not yet filed its Form 10Q-SB for the quarter ended September 30, 2006.

Jeremy Anderson, the Chief Financial Officer of the Company, stated, "We anticipate the Company will return to quotation on the OTCBB in the near future. We were unable to file our Form 10Q-SB for the third quarter because our new independent accountants advised us that, in their view, our original accounting treatment for our transaction involving George Foreman in August 2005, should be revised -- in a way that we believe would actually be more favorable to the Company. This proposed accounting treatment is different from the treatment reflected in the financial statements included in the Company's quarterly and annual SEC filings from September 30, 2005 forward. The new accountants informed us that, in their view, certain items previously expensed by the Company should be listed as assets and certain items previously recorded as liabilities should be classified as components of shareholders' equity. The impact of the revised accounting treatment considered proper by our new independent accountants would, therefore, include an increase in assets and shareholders' equity and a reduction in liabilities and expenses, and, we believe, improve the overall financial position shown in our financial statements."

"Due to the complexity of this issue and the different views of our prior and new independent accountants, the Company submitted the issue to the staff of the Securities and Exchange Commission for its input as to whether to adopt the new approach or continue our historical treatment of this issue. Upon receiving input from the SEC staff, the Company will take immediate action to file the appropriate documents with the SEC and seek to be returned to quotation on the OTC Bulletin Board. After filing the appropriate documents, we believe it should take about 3 business days for the Company to again be quoted on the OTC Bulletin Board. In the meantime, we expect that the Company's common stock will be quoted in the Pink Sheets."

Keene Little : 1/17/2007 10:04:33 PM

Thursday's pivot tables: Link and Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2007 10:01:57 PM

Nikkei-225 ($NIKK) up 82 points, or +0.48% at 17,343.80. Link

Session high/low has been 17,408.62/17,220.42.

X gets the squares to 17,400.

OI Technical Staff : 1/17/2007 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2007 9:58:33 PM

No word on Japan's Interest Rate Statement at this time.

Forecast is for 25 bp hike to 0.50%.

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2007 9:31:44 PM

Venezuela's Chavez: Special Presidential Powers Could Last 18 Month

DJ- Venezuela President Hugo Chavez said late Wednesday he has formally asked Congress to give him special presidential powers for a period of 18 months.

"We've asked for a special presidential powers law to last a year-and-a-half," Chavez said during televised remarks.

Members of Congress are expected to approve Chavez's request in a first reading Thursday. The special powers law would give Chavez freedom to tinker with or overhaul a host of economic laws over the next few months without congressional approval.

The leftist leader has said that the approval of special powers would be needed to push forward what he calls 21st century socialism in Venezuela.

The president is expected to change major tax legislation that covers a value-added tax and even income-tax rules for the oil sector. He is also expected to retool the commerce code, which underpins the way business is conducted in the Andean country.

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2007 8:02:20 PM

QQQQ $44.91 -0.81% ... last tick in extended was $44.77.

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2007 8:01:35 PM

Apple Computer (AAPL) $94.95 -2.21% ... last tick in extended was $94.17.

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2007 7:28:34 PM

NASDAQ Summation Index ($NASI) 10-point box chart Link ... would tie directly to NASDAQ 10-day NH/NL ratio reversing up 3-boxes.

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2007 7:24:39 PM

NASDAQ Summation ($NASI) 20-point box chart Link ... still in column of "O" with closing reading of -39.31.

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2007 7:21:11 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Note: At the close of today's trade, NASDAQ 10-day NH/NL Ratio reverses up 3-boxes to 68.00%. (see today's chart at 10:36:23 AM EST.

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2007 7:04:54 PM

QQQQ Option Montage from 01/10/07 (NAKED CALL squeeze thoughts) at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2007 6:59:37 PM

Closing QQQQ Option Montage Link (CBOE Volume Only)

and QQQQ Option Montage from 01:48:14 Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2007 6:29:42 PM

QQQQ $44.76 ... snug at WEEKLY Pivot.

Maybe, just maybe that was some NAKED CALL squeeze action late last week.

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2007 6:28:48 PM

SMH $34.10 extended. 2-cents below WEEKLY S1. If this were "regular session" I'd be giving a bearish growl.

Keene Little : 1/17/2007 6:22:29 PM

One other interesting Fib projection for NDX that I didn't mention on its daily chart (reference the chart posted at 5:31) is that wave-5 (the move up from January 3rd) will equal 162% of wave-1 (the move up from July to early August) at 1866.44. So we have the trend line across the January 2004 and 2006 highs at 1866, this projection at 1866 and a projection for the 5th wave of wave-5 (shown on the 60-min chart) at 1866 (assuming today's low is it for the pullback).

This is good correlation for an expectation that the NDX will get there and that it will mark a major high for that index. Bears get ready and then we'll just have to see what the other indices are up to at the time we start a pullback (assuming we'll get one, which for this market is a big assumption).

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2007 6:07:20 PM

PetroChina (PTR) finished $122.43.

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2007 6:06:02 PM

March Crude Oil futures (cl07h) settled up $1.17, or +2.25% at $53.13.

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2007 6:04:15 PM

February Crude Oil futures (cl07g) settled up $1.03, or +2.01% at $52.24.

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2007 6:03:28 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Keene Little : 1/17/2007 5:49:17 PM

If tomorrow morning we get a new low for the pullback in the techs, a common retracement for the 4th wave shown on the NDX 60-min chart is 38% of the 3rd wave. That would pull NDX down to 1820.49 (NQ 1834) and change the upside projection to about NDX 1862 (NQ 1876.75). Just some numbers to keep in mind for tomorrow morning.

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2007 5:38:21 PM

QQQQ ... $44.79 extended. Did see trade at WEEKLY Pivot with extended session low of $44.75. "Makes sense" per SMH/GSO.X action.

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2007 5:35:55 PM

AAPL $94.10 extended.

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2007 5:34:58 PM

Fed's Pool Says He Is Still Inflation Hawk

Keene Little : 1/17/2007 5:31:08 PM

Man, this guy is making my brain hurt (smile). Good back and forth here and I think worth sharing since we're getting conflicting signals between sectors and indices (as I had mentioned a couple of times today).

If the EW count for INTC is unfolding correctly to the downside in a third wave, not sure that your count for NQ to the upside (1890) will transpire since INTC is a major component to the Nasdaq 100. Is there another EW count playing out on the NQ given that we are breaking down below your 4th wave low scenario (around 1853)? I'm thinking maybe that the high beta techs already hit their high and will be the first to selloff. Can you post a quick alternate EW count for NQ (NDX as well)?

The difference between NQ and NDX is that NQ is presently running about 14 points higher than NDX so I'll just use NDX here. As far as the comparison between INTC and NDX we could see a new high in NDX but only a correction of today's decline in INTC (which was a lot more significant than the pullback in NDX). In other words they could both rally but NDX could make a new high without INTC.

Starting with the 60-min chart of NDX, the wave count is clean and the current pullback fits best as a 4th wave correction. It pulled back further than where it was when I posted a chart of NQ earlier today so assuming this afternoon's low is the end of the pullback I show a projection for the 5th wave up at 1881.45. The same projection for NQ is at 1866.37 so again about +14 (15) points. That projection changes if it pulls back a little further on Thursday. Link

It would be nice to see this move happen by the end of the week as it would be somewhat appropriate to see a high during opex week. The reason I'm showing a Fib projection for wave-5 = 62% of wave-1 is because wave-1 and 3 are nearly equal. When that happens the 5th wave is typically 62% or 162% of wave-1. I don't see NDX heading for 1934 (162%) so my preference is to call 1866 as the correct upside target.

Looking at the daily chart of NDX, the broken uptrend line from August and the trend line across the highs of January 2004 and 2006 intersect this week near the same 1866 Fib target mentioned above: Link The choppy mess from November to the spike low on January 3rd was proven corrective once we got the new high this month. The count is clean and says the move up from January 3rd is the 5th wave and will be the end of the rally from July.

The only alternative wave count for NDX's move up this month is a forced count therefore I don't like any alternatives at this point. It takes a break below 1800 (NQ 1816.50) to say something else is going on otherwise I'm looking for a 5th wave higher to finish off the rally from July. For this index it will then be time to get shorty for a position trade.

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2007 5:09:21 PM

QQQQ $44.89 extended.

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2007 5:08:32 PM

AAPL ... $96.28 extended. Extended low/high has been $95.39/$99.48

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2007 5:04:39 PM

AAPL $96 ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2007 5:04:13 PM

Wouldn't surprise me a bit if James Cramer selling some strength below his $100 target on AAPL. He may have hit the GOOG $513 just right at WEEKLY R1 yesterday.

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2007 5:02:53 PM

AAPL $94.95 -2.21% ... $97.00 extended.

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2007 5:02:30 PM

QQQQ $44.91 -0.81% ... $44.91 extended.

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2007 4:56:56 PM

AAPL 3.6 million shares in extended. Extended low/high has been $96.63/$99.48

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2007 4:54:40 PM

QQQQ $44.91 -0.81% ... $45.00 extended.

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2007 4:53:29 PM

That's gone. AAPL $99.39

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2007 4:53:10 PM

AAPL $99

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2007 4:52:36 PM

AAPL $98.65 ... see 57K at $99.00 INET

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2007 4:51:23 PM

AAPL $99.00

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2007 4:50:36 PM

Apple Computer (AAPL) $94.95 -2.21% ... released for trade. $97.20 extended.

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2007 4:49:39 PM

AAPL ... should be released for trade in 30 seconds.

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2007 4:48:27 PM

QQQQ ... $44.99 extended

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2007 4:47:43 PM

AAPL ... INET bidding 1,000 at $98.10

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2007 4:46:59 PM

AAPL ... INET bid $100.00

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2007 4:46:38 PM

AAPL not yet released for trade.

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2007 4:46:13 PM

AAPL INET bid $98 and offer $94.85

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2007 4:45:49 PM

Apple Computer (AAPL) ... this could get wild ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2007 4:43:58 PM

Equity Office (EOP) $50.94 +2.18% ... higher at $51.30.

Vornado Team Makes Takeover Bid (Story) Link

Keene Little : 1/17/2007 4:43:22 PM

When I say a new high for SPX in March (just speculation on that) I meant in time not price. If we get another high after pulling back I like the upside Fib target of 1451. Understand this is all just speculation at the moment as I try to read the tea leaves (EW pattern).

Keene Little : 1/17/2007 4:36:19 PM

Now for a look at CME (to answer the reader's question posted at 4:03). This one doesn't look nearly as bearish as GOOG at the moment. It could be close to topping out in its current leg up from December (watch the trend line across the highs from August, currently near 587) but I don't think that will be the end of its run higher. The reason has to do with the count for the move up from August--the 3rd wave can't be the shortest one and I don't know how else to count it other than shown here: Link

This count says we'll be due a 3-wave pullback soon and then another rally to a new high to finish it off. There's a Fib projection just under $609 that could be the ultimate high. This chart raises an interesting question for the broader market--if this hasn't finished making its high then does that mean the broader market will not be finished after putting in a high for the leg up from December?

When I showed this CME chart towards the end of December and pointed out the wave count needed a new high I speculated at the time that it could mean we'll get new highs in the broader market as well and sure enough we have. If this CME chart is correct then the leg up from December for SPX and the DOW is only wave-A of an A-B-C move to its ultimate high.

That says we'll get a larger pullback in the DOW and SPX to correct the rally from December and then a continuation of the rally to another new high. Are you ready for that one bears? That might mean a market high in March to match the one (for SPX) in March 2000.

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2007 4:34:45 PM

Apple Computer (AAPL) should be release for trade between 04:45 and 04:50 PM EST.

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2007 4:32:45 PM

QQQQ $44.91 -0.81% ... $44.91 extended ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2007 4:32:18 PM

Apple Computer (AAPL) ... Earnings Press Release Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2007 4:31:15 PM

Apple Computer (AAPL) halted for trade. News pending.

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2007 4:21:01 PM

S&P Price/Earnings Ratio At 18.28, Down From 18.29

DJ- The price/earnings ratio of the Standard & Poor's 500 Index at the close of trading Wednesday was 18.28.

On Tuesday, the ratio ended at 18.29.

The price/earnings ratio for the S&P 500 measures the index's closing level divided by the index's total earnings, as reported under generally accepted accounting principles, or GAAP, for the most recent year.

In 2005, the most recently reported year, S&P 500 companies reported earnings of $78.28 a share.

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2007 4:11:55 PM

Washington Mutual (WM) Earnings Press Release Link

Consensus was EPS $0.88 on Revenue of $3.66B

Keene Little : 1/17/2007 4:11:17 PM

BTW, one of the reasons I like this EW count on GOOG, which says we've seen THE high, is because of the negative divergences between the 3rd and 5th waves in wave-3 and between wave-3 and wave-5. This helps confirm the wave count and suggests that it will be down hill from here for GOOG. Just understand that's a very early call here so seller beware.

But I like the risk:reward to try a longer term short play on this one. Then take profits (or sell a spread) when it hits its uptrend line/200-dma, trade it long for a bounce (into the spring) and then get short for a real good ride down (into the summer/fall).

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2007 4:09:17 PM

Washington Mutual (WM) $43.73 -0.74% ... $44.20 extended on headline numbers.

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2007 4:07:13 PM

AAPL $94.95 -2.21% ... WEEKLY Pivot Levels ... $79.88, $87.26, Piv= $92.53, $99.91, $105.18.

January "Max Pain Theory" currently tabulated at $75.00 ($2.50 increments below $75; $5 increments above $75.00)

Keene Little : 1/17/2007 4:06:25 PM

Corrected an error on the wave count for GOOG so here's an updated daily chart for it: Link

Keene Little : 1/17/2007 4:03:13 PM

Now that GOOG tagged $513, do you see a completed EW count for GOOG? Looks like an impulse wave down from the 513 high. Also CME tagged 575-578 target. Could you post a updated EW count for CME and GOOG with your downside targets (price & time) for these high flyers.

This daily chart of GOOG shows the completion of what looks like a 5-wave move up from the December low. That could be the completion of wave-5 of (5), as labeled (which says we've seen THE high), or it could be just the first wave of wave-5 up. So far the move down from the high is a 3-wave move so it's entirely possible this will turn around and head higher after pulling back here. Link

The move down has achieved two equal legs down at 496 so now we'll watch for either a continuation lower or if instead it turns around and heads higher again. The uptrend from December has been broken and this is confirmation that that leg up is done. If the decline continues watch for an eventual pullback to its 50-dma and we'll see what happens from there.

As for a projetion for the downside I have no clue. This market has been supported far longer than I would have thought possible and that could continue, even in a decline (or most especially in a decline). It takes a break below its December low near 452 and then its longer term uptrend line down near 430 to suggest a major high is in. In the meantime just play each leg one at a time. We've got too many discrepancies between indices and sectors to be of assistance here.

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2007 3:53:55 PM

S&P Retail Index (RLX.X) 513.12 -0.45% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2007 3:53:29 PM

TJX Cos. (TJX) $29.51 -1.13% ... resumed trading at 03:37 PM EST.

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2007 3:51:50 PM

Apple Computer (AAPL) $95.32 -1.83% ... earnings after the bell.

Consensus EPS $0.78 on Revenue of $6.42B

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2007 3:47:08 PM

NASDAQ-100 Components/Weightings (as of 12/29/06) via CBOE Link

Jane Fox : 1/17/2007 3:44:20 PM

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- TJX Cos. (TJX) on Wednesday reported an unauthorized intrusion into its computer systems, and the company said some customer information has been stolen. The Framingham, Mass.-based retailer said the full extent of the theft is not yet known. The intrusion involves the company's computer network that handles credit card, debit card, check, and merchandise return transactions for customers of its T.J. Maxx, Marshalls, HomeGoods and A.J. Wright stores in the U.S. and Puerto Rico, and its Winners and HomeSense stores in Canada, and may involve customers of its T.K. Maxx stores in the U.K. and Ireland. The break-in could also extend to TJX's Bob's Stores in the U.S, the company added. TJX said it has alerted law enforcement authorities and is cooperating with credit and debit card issuers. "We are deeply concerned about this event and the difficulties it may cause our customers," said Ben Cammarata, chairman and acting chief executive, in a statement. Cammarata said the company is working to strengthen the security of its computer systems.

Jane Fox : 1/17/2007 3:43:57 PM

Odds of rate cut through 1st-half '07 18% vs. 28% late-Tues.

Keene Little : 1/17/2007 3:38:43 PM

Any bounce here followed by a new low could be at least a good scalp short. In the meantime ES appears stuck in the same trading range between Friday's high and the lows of the past two days. YM has been chopping its way higher and continues to look like it could try for another new high tomorrow. It will need to hold above 12600 though in order for that possibility to hold.

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2007 3:34:21 PM

Trading Halts Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2007 3:33:22 PM

TJX Cos. (TJX)

DJ- Victimized by Computer Systems Intrusion; Provides Information to Help Protect Customers

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2007 3:32:25 PM

DJ- Chile Stocks End At 4th Straight Record High; Select Gains

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2007 3:31:47 PM

TJX Cos. (TJX) $29.85 (unch) ... halted; news pending.

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2007 3:23:10 PM

CSCO $27.00 -3.70% ... ditto

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2007 3:22:53 PM

Rackable Systems (RACK) $20.39 -37.07% ... new session low.

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2007 3:15:43 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2007 3:02:43 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 1/17/2007 2:58:34 PM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Monetary policy is currently "well-positioned" to bring inflation down, said San Francisco Fed president Janet Yellen on Wednesday. Recent readings on inflation have been encouraging, although the inflation situation remains "uncertain" and there are upside risks, especially having to do with the tight labor markets, Yellen said in a speech prepared for delivery to the Arizona Council on Economic Education. The persistence of tight labor markets given the recent slowdown in growth is a puzzle, Yellen said. If labor markets are as tight as the unemployment rate suggests, "there may be reason for concern about building inflationary pressures," she said. Yellen said the Fed is close to achieving its goal of slowing the economy enough to dampen inflationary pressures. She said fears of a devastating collapse in the housing market that might have been big enough to push the economy into recession "have been largely allayed."

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2007 2:57:50 PM

Fed's Yellen: Rate Policy Positioned To Cool Inflation

DJ- The current stance of monetary policy appears well positioned to bring inflation back down to more acceptable levels, even as risks remain that price pressures could yet move higher, a top U.S. Federal Reserve official said Wednesday.

"The funds rate is currently within the moderately restrictive range that appears appropriate," Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Janet Yellen said. Indications are "that the current policy stance is sufficient to bring inflation down to more acceptable levels," she said.

Uncertainty over monetary policy's influence on the economy argues "for policy to be responsive to the data as it emerges," Yellen said. She added "the decision to keep policy on hold allows us more time to observe the data so that appropriate adjustments can be made over time."

Yellen was speaking in comments prepared for delivery in Phoenix, before the Arizona Council on Economic Education. Yellen was a voting member at the Federal Open Market Committee's 2006 meetings, but she won't be a voting member this year.

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2007 2:54:25 PM

BTK.X 783.43 -0.16% ... WEEKLY Pivot "way down" at 773.62.

Keene Little : 1/17/2007 2:54:12 PM

Given that INTC is releasing its earnings after the bell, could you post a quick EW count for INTC. Given that MOT and AMD have posted poorer numbers and INTC max pain (Jan) is $20, it looks like the results could be met with some selling after the bell. Wanted to see if your EW count fits with this posture.

Sorry I didn't get your email until this afternoon so obviously I can't answer your question before INTC's earnings. However, your thought that INTC would sell off was downright brilliant! I hope you traded it that way. As for the EW count, here's a daily chart with my count, and yes, it does support the idea that the bounce is now over. Link

The move up from the December low looks like an a-b-c wave-(ii) bounce that got just above equality in the a-b-c (at 22.16). The move down today should be starting wave-(iii) of 1 of (3) by this count. It should be noted that this count calls for a long slide back down for INTC. Vista or no Vista, new chips or not, lack of demand will be the culprit if this wave count is correct. This is a very early call on that so we'll have to see if the decline continues through its 200-dma at 19.56, which should happen relatively quickly if we're starting a 3rd wave down.

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2007 2:53:54 PM

SMH $34.26 -1.32% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2007 2:53:38 PM

GSO.X 185.68 -0.03% ... slips red. Set to retest WEEKLY S1.

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2007 2:53:02 PM

Big near-term pivot test for QQQQ is $44.76. Overlap of WEEKLY Pivot and MONTHLY 19.1% retracement.

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2007 2:52:03 PM

Some of the "big guns" in the NDX/QQQQ softening up.

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2007 2:51:47 PM

MSFT $31.09 -0.22% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2007 2:51:28 PM

Google (GOOG) $500.00

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2007 2:49:45 PM

Sell Program Premium ... YM 12,628 : SPY $142.96 : QQQQ $44.96

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2007 2:37:32 PM

MBA's Weekly Application Survey Link

Keene Little : 1/17/2007 2:35:12 PM

Bonds sold off on the Beige report, showing the worry about higher interest rates. With higher wage inflation the Fed continues to be boxed into a corner where it will be very difficult for them to lower rates even if the economy slows down from the continued slowing in the housing market. Don't confuse optimism, otherwise known as wishful thinking, in the home builders for an improving housing market. That market has a long way to go yet before it sees improvement. The sub-prime mortgage lenders are in a world of hurt right now and it's going to get worse.

Jane Fox : 1/17/2007 2:30:21 PM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Sales of new and existing homes will continue their slide this year, due largely to investors pulling out of the housing market, mortgage-finance company Fannie Mae said Wednesday.

In an economic and housing outlook, Fannie Mae (FNM) said sales of new homes are expected to drop by 7.1% in 2007, while sales of existing homes are expected to drop 8.1% this year.

Fannie Mae's projections follow similar estimates released Tuesday by the Mortgage Bankers Association. The trade group forecast declines in 2007 of 7% in existing-home sales and 8% in new-home sales.

Fannie economists said the projected sales for 2007 would be the lowest since 2002.

The two-year drop in sales during 2006 and 2007, the economists said, would be the largest since the 1989-1991 housing downturn.

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2007 2:26:12 PM

GOOG $502.79 -0.29% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2007 2:25:52 PM

MSFT $31.21 +0.16%

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2007 2:25:05 PM

Sensing some of the hedges that went on last week, may be subsiding.

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2007 2:24:20 PM

TRINQ 2.02 +106.12%

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2007 2:24:00 PM

VXN 17.01 now ... WEEKLY Pivot at 17.34.

QQQQ $45.00 -0.61%

Jane Fox : 1/17/2007 2:22:39 PM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. economic growth is only expanding at a modest pace, but there is no sign of any cooling in the hot labor market, the Federal Reserve's latest survey of current economic conditions found.

The Fed's "beige book," released Wednesday, found that reports from its 12 districts "generally described labor market conditions are tightening and cited examples of some businesses having difficulty finding qualified workers."

Overall, wage gains for workers has been "relatively moderate" but certain business lines are experiencing wage increases and are worried about rising benefit costs, the survey found.

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2007 2:20:05 PM

Most Actives ... INTC $20.91 -6.23%, CSCO $27.12 -3.28%, QQQQ $45.05 -0.50%, SIRI $3.92 -5.54%, F $8.04 +1.25%, SUNW $6.01 -0.82%, LVLT $6.30 -4.68%, MSFT $31.24 +0.25%, SYMC $17.86 +0.39%, MOT $18.67 +2.92%

Keene Little : 1/17/2007 2:19:44 PM

I had mentioned earlier this morning that the corrective move higher could be an indication that we'll chop our way higher and to expect some whipsaws. I still see that possibility here. The move up today might have been the completion of the 1st of a 5-wave move higher that could create an ascending wedge. This possibility stays alive until ES drops below 1436.

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2007 2:15:56 PM

Sell Program Premium ... YM 12,635 : SPY $143.06 : QQQQ $45.03

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2007 2:15:10 PM

QQQQ alert $45.02 ... undercuts "bull fit 38.2% retracement's" 80.9% of $45.04. Downside "risk" to WEEKLY Pivot (see SMH/GSO.X)

Keene Little : 1/17/2007 2:14:03 PM

The DOW is sneaking up towards the 12630 Fib resistance area and SPX is working its way higher towards Fib resistance in the 1436-1439 area. While I think those are setting up a potential short play I'm hesitant about it because of what I see for NQ. It's being held down by INTC today but I see the probability for another rally leg.

If that happens and whether or not it could drag the broader market higher is the question. It's possible that we just completed a high on that last poke higher on the Fed Beige Book news. If SPX drops back below 1436 then it becomes even more possible that we've seen the high.

Jane Fox : 1/17/2007 2:13:03 PM

When the bulls are clearly in control (like today) you usually see the TICKS going crazy and +800 readings are more common than not but lately no matter how bullish the internals have been the TICKS have been just plain anemic. Very strange indeed.

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2007 2:12:46 PM

Fed's Mishkin: Exotic Mortgage Products Don t Raise Red Flag

Link Between Money Demand and Inflation Weak

Ctrl Bks Can Control Rates In Long Run

Ctrl Bks Must Keep Inflation From Fluctuating

Low Long-Term Rates Factor in House Prices

Ctrl Bks Should Not Target Asset Prices

Jane Fox : 1/17/2007 2:07:11 PM

ES and YM made new daily highs on that last push. ER tested its daily highs but was not able to push through and NQ is not anywhere near its daily highs.

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2007 2:04:38 PM

Buy Program Premium ... YM 12,661 : SPY $143.40

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2007 2:03:45 PM

Fed Beige Book Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2007 1:57:02 PM

TRINQ 1.78 +81.63%

VXN 16.95 -1.90%

QQQQ Option Montage (CBOE Volume Only) Link ... BIIIIIG pressure building.

Keene Little : 1/17/2007 1:55:09 PM

INTC is dropping to new lows, now down -6%. This is hurting the techs (marginally) and the semis (SMH down -1% but SOX only down -0.46%) but the broader market continues to sing Elmo's song (lala la la...).

Keene Little : 1/17/2007 1:40:36 PM

Interesting though that the OJ futures (March contract) are seeing new highs but with some very bearish divergences.

Keene Little : 1/17/2007 1:38:16 PM

How true. Too bad they can't make frozen orange juice directly from frozen oranges. Of course that's where most of the damaged oranges (that are salvagable) go--OJ.

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2007 1:36:06 PM

You look at a chart on Orange Juice and you've gott'a say "squeeeezed" from mid-October.

Keene Little : 1/17/2007 1:35:19 PM

The drop in the value of the US dollar (although it has bounced pretty good from the December low) is expected to help our exporters. The thinking is that our exports will do better (and maybe is part of the reason for capacity utilization going up) while imports decline (hurting China and other countries who depend on our buying power). The net result will be beneficial to us as our trade balance improves. The thinking is that could actually strengthen our dollar.

Jane Fox : 1/17/2007 1:33:31 PM

Here is how the markets are trading in relation to their respective PDRs. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2007 1:33:24 PM

March Frozen Concentrated OJ (oj07h) 205.80 +2.66% ...

Keene Little : 1/17/2007 1:29:21 PM

Much of the demand in commodities has been the strong growth in China. Much of their growth has been based on exporting their production (they're working on encouraging internal consumption). If U.S. consumers slow their spending, as will likely continuje to happen, then China will get hurt. They already have excess production capacity and any slowing in their exports will cause a real challenge for their economy (the other countries don't have the purchasing capacity to make up for our spending slowdown. I think the drop in commodity prices is reflecting this coming event.

Jane Fox : 1/17/2007 1:28:43 PM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Russell Investment Group on Wednesday launched its Russell Global 10,000 family of indexes as it jockeys with Morgan Stanley Capital International to tap into a hunger for overseas stocks.,p> The Global 10,000 includes the stocks in the existing, U.S.-based Russell 3,000, plus 7,000 additional stocks covering 63 countries in 22 regions.

David Grieger, managing director, of Tacoma, Wash.-based Russell Indexes, said the companies in the Russell Global Indexes are selected with similar methodology as its domestic indexes, using float-adjusted market capitalizations and a liquidity threshold.

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2007 1:27:08 PM

What do you think of those capacity utilization rates? (see 12:42:24)

I was a bit shocked to see U.S. capacity utilization running so strong/high.

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2007 1:25:04 PM

SeekingAlpha: Looking at Commodity and Foreign ETFs in 2007 ... Article Link

Keene Little : 1/17/2007 1:24:11 PM

And I think the collapse in commodity prices is a pretty good indicator that we're facing a slowing global economy.

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2007 1:18:23 PM

Or it could be that as commodity prices tumble... lumber too?

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2007 1:17:07 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 1/17/2007 1:13:11 PM

Interesting that the home builders are up today but lumber prices (March contract) have dropped below December's low and have dropped sharply from the January bounce. I think the futures traders in lumber are probably a little more in touch with reality than the buyers of the home builders.

Jane Fox : 1/17/2007 1:11:48 PM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. home builders are slightly more optimistic about the housing market and are "starting to see that the worst is behind them," the National Association of Home Builders reported Wednesday.

The NAHB/Wells Fargo housing market index improved to 35 in January from an upwardly revised 33 in December. It's the highest level for the sentiment index since July. A year ago, the index was at 57. The index bottomed at 30 in September.

The index shows that roughly one-third of builders are upbeat about the market. A reading over 50% would indicate that most builders were optimistic that the market is improving.

The index is created by asking builders three questions: How are sales? How is buyer traffic? And how do you expect sales to be in six months?

Jane Fox : 1/17/2007 1:11:01 PM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The Federal Reserve shouldn't try to prick an asset bubble, but should be prepared for possible sharp reversals in prices of homes or other assets to ensure they do not do serious harm to the economy, said Fed governor Frederic Mishkin on Wednesday.

"Because subsequent collapses of...asset prices might be highly damaging to the economy, as they were in Japan in the 1990s, should the monetary authority try to prick, or at least slow the growth of, developing bubbles? I view the answer as no," Mishkin said in remarks prepared for delivery to the Forecaster's Club.

But Mishkin added: "I do think that central banks can ensure that sharp movements in the prices of homes or other assets do not have serious negative consequences for the economy."

Keene Little : 1/17/2007 1:06:08 PM

For QQQQ players, if NQ manages a rally to 1890 by the end of the week then QQQQ will hit $46.

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2007 1:02:22 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2007 12:59:38 PM

JPMORGAN CHASE NET SURGES 68% ON INVESTMENT BANKING

DJ- Bank earns $4.5 billion, or $1.26 a share, as strength in investment banking driven by heavy merger activity and a gain on the sale of its corporate trust business offset a decline in retail banking. Excluding gains from its trust business and a 10c-a-share tax benefit, company earns 99c a share, as revenue climbs 15% to $16.9 billion. Wall Street analysts expected earnings of 95c a share.

JPM $48.45 +0.12% Link ... #15 most heavily weighted Dow component.

Jane Fox : 1/17/2007 12:57:02 PM

The bulls have the ball and have very good field position as well. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2007 12:55:53 PM

BROOKFIELD TO BUY MILLS FOR $1.35B

DJ- Brookfield Asset Management agrees to pay $21 a share for the ailing REIT, an 18% premium to yesterday's closing price. Toronto money manager will also give Mills financing until the deal's 2H closing.

BAM $48.30 +0.62% Link

MLS $20.95 +17.83% Link ...

Keene Little : 1/17/2007 12:53:00 PM

NQ has rallied much stronger this month than ES or YM but NQ is now lagging, possibly due to money again rotating into the blue chips. NQ appears to be still stuck in its consolidation from yesterday but it too should continue higher once it's finished. The uptrend line from January 3rd for NQ is holding and as long as that continues to be true I'd say you want to be on the long side. There are a few Fib projections that point to NQ 1890 for a potential high for the rally. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2007 12:51:05 PM

PE INVESTORS' EXPECTATIONS RISING

DJ- Survey shows private-equity investors' expectations are rising along with the increasing returns of their investments, with 47% of investors expecting net 3-to-5-year returns of 16% or more.

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2007 12:49:44 PM

CNBC- Vornado Bid For Equity Office Seen Within 24 Hrs

EOP Link jumps from $49.50 to $50.10.

Jane Fox : 1/17/2007 12:47:27 PM

These are telling me the odds are against you from the short side. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2007 12:46:29 PM

PARKER HANNIFIN 2Q NET CLIMBS 50%

DJ- Parker-Hannifin earns $193 million, or $1.64 a share, in its fiscal 2Q, helped by a renewal of a federal tax credit for increasing research activities. Sales rise 16% to $2.51 billion and company boosts full-year view.

PH $83.21 +6.17% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2007 12:42:24 PM

US INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION RISES MORE THAN EXPECTED

DJ- Industrial production increases 0.4% in December after retreating a revised 0.1% in November. Capacity utilization rises to 81.8% from November's revised 81.6%. Economists expected a 0.1% gain in output and an 81.8% utilization rate.

Note: This data was released earlier this morning.

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2007 12:37:19 PM

DIGITAL MUSIC SALES DOUBLE IN '06

DJ- Global digital music sales almost double in 2006 to around $2 billion, or around 10% of all sales, but fail to compensate for an overall decline in sales of CDs, the global music industry trade body says.

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2007 12:34:22 PM

PAULSON FOCUSING ON CAPITAL MARKETS

DJ- Treasury secretary plans to convene a high-profile conference this spring to pursue his campaign to address concerns that U.S. capital markets are losing their competitive edge in intensifying global competition.

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2007 12:30:11 PM

HEALTH MANAGEMENT TO PAY $2.4B DIVIDEND

DJ- Hospital operator announces a $3.25 billion recapitalization that will include a one-time dividend payment of $10 a share. Firm also projects 2007 earnings below analysts' expectations.

HMA $20.60 -0.14% Link

S&P cut HMA's debt rating to "junk" status. Reuters Story Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2007 12:25:45 PM

GM POSTS GROWTH OVERSEAS AS US SALES DROP

DJ- Auto maker sells 9.09 million cars and trucks worldwide in 2006, a drop of less than 1% from the year before, reflecting lower fleet sales and growth in overseas markets. For first time, GM sells more Buicks in China than in U.S.

GM $30.94 +0.29% Link ... #27 most heavily weighted Dow component.

Keene Little : 1/17/2007 12:24:29 PM

The home building index (DJUSHB) is getting a nice bounce today as they continue to see the glass as half full (relief that LEN didn't lose more?). The move up from the low on January 8th has two equal legs up at 721.10 which is also at its downtrend line from the December high. I've noticed that this index trades these Fib projections very close. Today's high so far is 720.67 so caution if you're long any of the home builders.

The bullish thing I see for the home builders is that the daily chart looks like a bull flag since the December high (with price at the top of the flag today). But if that bull flag should fail to the downside then it would very likely be a quick flush.

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2007 12:23:22 PM

MCDONALD'S SALES STRONG, SEES ABOVE-TARGET EPS

DJ- Fast-food giant posts 7.2% rise in global comparable-store sales in December and 6.3% gain for 4Q. U.S. same-store sales rise 6.9% last month and 5.9% for 4Q. It sees 4Q EPS of $1 a share, which includes a 39c gain. Wall Street expects 58c a share.

MCD $44.97 +0.89% Link ... #19 most heavily weighted Dow component.

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2007 12:20:55 PM

AMEX Broker/Dealer (XBD.X) 257.17 -0.04% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2007 12:19:34 PM

SCHWAB 4Q NET MORE THAN DOUBLES

DJ- Schwab's 4Q earnings rise to $467 million, or 37c a share, including a $205 million non-cash tax benefit relating to pending sale of U.S. Trust. Revenue climbs 14% to $1.1 billion. Analysts expected EPS of 21c.

SCHW $19.94 -1.18% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2007 12:15:47 PM

TRAN sticks its head back above downward trend from 5/10/06 high (5,013) to 07/03/06 relative high (4,975)

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2007 12:13:45 PM

Dow Transportation Average ($TRAN) 4,855.57 -0.12% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2007 12:12:48 PM

AMEX Airline Index (XAL.X) 65.87 -1.49% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2007 12:12:00 PM

AMR POSTS PROFIT; SOUTHWEST NET DOWN

DJ- AMR ekes out surprise 4Q profit of $17 million, or 7c a share, beating expectations, as revenue rises 4.4%. Southwest Airlines has a 19% drop in net income on fuel-hedge accounting.

AMR $40.40 +0.42% Link ...

LUV $16.11 -2.77% Link ...

Keene Little : 1/17/2007 12:07:14 PM

Pressing higher again. This could end up being a very choppy rally so watch out for whipsaws. There are several layers of Fib resistance just above with the first one at 1443.75. Two equal legs up from this morning's low is at 1443.

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2007 12:05:46 PM

Centex (CTX) $53.49 +3.64% Link ... recoups all of yesterday's declines.

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2007 12:03:50 PM

Dow Jones Home Construction (DJUSHB) 719.44 +2.84% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2007 12:02:33 PM

LENNAR SWINGS TO 4Q LOSS

DJ- Home builder swings to loss of $195.6 million, or $1.24 a share, from year-ago profit of $581.2 million, on land-related write-downs. Revenue falls 15% to $4.27 billion. Analysts say its strategy could allow it to recover faster than peers.

LEN $51.93 +4.44% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2007 12:01:00 PM

PANEL SAYS OIL ROYALTY RELIEF IMPOTENT

DJ- U.S. oil and gas royalty relief program, which is designed to encourage new exploration and production, is not delivering the economic benefits it's supposed to, according to a new Congress Joint Economic Committee report.

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2007 11:57:07 AM

Medtronic unit halts U.S. shipments ... Reuters Story Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2007 11:54:20 AM

Medtronic (MDT) $54.15 -0.66% ... not sure if Medtronic Emergency Response Systems was spun off.

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2007 11:52:52 AM

ZOLL's competitors all look to be privately held. Link Might be Guidant.

Keene Little : 1/17/2007 11:50:16 AM

We got a small a-b-c move up from this morning's low and now it's coming back down. This leaves me guessing as to what's next. We could chop higher (which would be an indication we're in the last leg of the rally) or we could chop sideways/down. Without more clarity here I'd say flat is a good position. Boring but good.

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2007 11:43:41 AM

Zoll Medical Up 10% As Competitor Suspends Shipments

ZOLL $70.74 +10.28% Link ...

Keene Little : 1/17/2007 11:25:19 AM

This market has a bad case of the slows.

Keene Little : 1/17/2007 11:14:04 AM

If ES drops below 1439 then we could stay trapped in the consolidation for a little longer.

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2007 11:12:56 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 1/17/2007 11:12:55 AM

ES briefly pushed above 1440 and if the small pullback can stay above 1439 we should see a continuation higher. Another minor new high should lead to another test of the 1439 area which would then be a good buying opportunity.

Keene Little : 1/17/2007 11:11:16 AM

Tab's mention of oil reminded me to show the parallel down-channel I mentioned last week and my expectation for it to get down to $48-$49. Eventually it could make it to a Fib projection at $45 (or lower) but I suspect a touch of the bottom of the parallel channel, with it being deeply oversold at this point, should be good for a bounce (although I expect it to be a small bounce as the EW pattern calls for more donwside). Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2007 11:02:24 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Tab Gilles : 1/17/2007 10:57:31 AM

$NAHGH/$NALOW/$NDX/$NDXA200 Link

Tab Gilles : 1/17/2007 10:55:06 AM

Crude Oil is now flirting with the $50 level.

Looking at the USO/XLE chart.... Does the XLE have to catch upto the USO? Link

Here's an update of the 10-week emas of the Nasdaq New Highs & New Lows. Similarities to last January.

$NAHGH/$NALOW/$NDX/$NDXA200 Link

Keene Little : 1/17/2007 10:46:09 AM

The small sideways triangle consolidation that ES has been in since yesterday's high may have finished with that last drop to 1435.75. Often times there's a little under-throw below the bottom of the pattern and I was hoping to see 1435.25 tested at that time. It's possible this is now complete. A break of 1440 with any pullback holding above 1439 would be the next buying opportunity. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2007 10:42:10 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List at this Link

Keene Little : 1/17/2007 10:39:44 AM

The current pullback should now be finishing up the consolidation from yesterday. ES needs to stay above 1434.50 otherwise a deeper pullback is in the cards. Until that happens I'd look to buy this. It's a little risky right here and I'm waiting for a retest of 1435.25 before getting long. If I miss an entry that's OK. Opex week makes it risky enough and I'd rather get a very tight entry (low risk to a stop) if I can. A break above 1440 would likely mean the consolidation is finished.

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2007 10:36:23 AM

NASDAQ NH/NL Ratio Chart as of yesterday's close at this Link ... Yesterday, on an intraday basis, the 10-day NH/NL ratio (X,O) flirted with 68%.

Jane Fox : 1/17/2007 10:10:13 AM

Ok I have my AD line back now and it is a neutral -46. AD volume is a tad above 0 so no one has the ball this morning.

Keene Little : 1/17/2007 10:09:52 AM

NQ is testing its uptrend line from January 3rd.

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2007 10:09:43 AM

Cold Ruins Nearly $1B of Calif. Citrus ... AP Story Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2007 10:07:32 AM

NASDAQ a/d 1,193/1,387

Keene Little : 1/17/2007 10:07:20 AM

The consolidation from yesterday continues. I see nothing here that tells me we should expect a sell off. This continues to look like a buying opportunity to me. We've got another leg up to finish the rally and it should be good for a nice trade. Just don't expect to hang around long for long.

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2007 10:07:18 AM

NYSE a/d 1,485/1,430

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2007 10:07:00 AM

10:05 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2007 10:04:11 AM

Microsoft (MSFT) $31.34 +0.57% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2007 10:01:00 AM

GSO.X $185.98 +0.12% ... 60-minute interval chart with my MONTHLY Pivot retracement and QCharts' WEEKLY Pivot levels turned on at this Link ... juuust undercut its WEEKLY S1 (see 09:39:00 AM Post)

Keene Little : 1/17/2007 9:47:40 AM

The bottom of a bull flag pattern for ES is near 1435 which is the pre-market low so a successful test of that level would be a good place to get long.

Keene Little : 1/17/2007 9:40:48 AM

It's actually pretty impressive that INTC is down so hard (-4.6%) but it's not putting any kind of huge damper on the rest of the market. It's as if INTC is being treated as an isolated problem, which of course this market has been doing for a long time (ignoring any hint of bad news). We don't call it lala land for nothing.

Jeff Bailey : 1/17/2007 9:39:00 AM

Semiconductor HOLDRs (SMH) $34.43 -0.83% ... after kiss of WEEKLY S1.

Jane Fox : 1/17/2007 9:25:07 AM

My 7-month pregnant daughter is having an ultrasound at 11:00EST this morning and I have been invited. This will be my first glimpse of my new granddaughter.

Jane Fox : 1/17/2007 9:20:17 AM

I do not have data for the AD line/volume, VIX, TRIN nor TICKs this morning. If this continues then I will be trading blind today. (HMMM and that is different how???)

Keene Little : 1/17/2007 9:19:04 AM

The PPI news looks like it will give us a negative open but that could get quickly reversed after the open. After the sideways consolidation in ES yesterday it looked like it needed one more pullback to finish the pattern and that last leg is often a news related spike. So be careful about chasing any early move to the downside as it may come back and bite you.

Jane Fox : 1/17/2007 9:08:31 AM

AS you can see bonds didn't much like the PPI data either.

Crude hit a low of 50.325 overnight. Link

Jane Fox : 1/17/2007 9:05:45 AM

The equity markets really did not like the PPI data, all except YM have broken their respective PDLs. Link

Jane Fox : 1/17/2007 8:55:14 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Crude-oil futures fell back under $51 a barrel early Wednesday in a continued response to Saudi Arabia's rejection of calls from major oil producers for further output cuts as a way to stem the almost 17% decline in the price of oil since the start of the year.

Crude for February delivery was down 40 cents at $50.83 a barrel in electronic trade. On Tuesday, the contract tumbled 3.4% after Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi said there is no need for the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to cut production further, rejecting calls from members Venezuela and Iran.

Al-Naimi said the oil market is "significantly healthier" now than it was in October, when OPEC agreed to cut output by 1.2 million barrels a day. OPEC decided on a second output cut at a meeting in December but deferred that cut --another 500,000 barrels a day -- until February.

"The minister stated that OPEC must wait and assess the effect of two reductions before implementing a third one," said Andrew Bradford, analyst at Canaccord Adams.

Jane Fox : 1/17/2007 8:53:25 AM

BOSTON (MarketWatch) -- Lennar Corp. said Wednesday it swung to a loss in the fourth quarter as home builders continue to struggle with plunging sales and write-downs in a weak housing market. The company estimated home deliveries will decline 20% in 2007 from the previous year.

The Miami-based company (LEN) said it saw a quarterly loss of $1.24 a share, compared with profit of $3.54 a share a year earlier when the builder rode the tail end of the housing boom. Analysts polled by Thomson First Call had predicted a quarterly loss of $1.11 a share.

Chief Executive Stuart Miller in a statement Wednesday said market conditions remained "depressed" through the end of the fourth quarter.

For the quarter ended Nov. 30, home-building revenue slipped to $4.1 billion from $4.87 billion, said Lennar, one of the nation's largest builders.

Jane Fox : 1/17/2007 8:52:00 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Prices paid to U.S. producers rose 0.9% in December, led by higher energy costs and a big jump in fresh food prices, the Labor Department reported Wednesday.

The core producer price index, which excludes food and energy prices, rose 0.2%.

The increases in wholesale inflation were slightly higher than expected. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch were looking for a 0.6% gain on the finished goods PPI and a flat reading on the core PPI.

Treasury prices were little changed after the report.

Energy prices surged for a second straight month after falling the three months previous. Energy prices rose 2.5% in December, with wholesale gasoline prices rising 7.1%.

Wholesale food prices rose 1.7%, the largest gain in more than three years. Fresh fruit prices jumped 26.3%, the most in six years, while fresh vegetable prices rose 21.7%.

Market Monitor Archives