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OI Technical Staff : 1/19/2007 9:59:59 PM

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Jeff Bailey : 1/19/2007 9:38:00 PM

Four out of the last five sessions, the SPX has closed 1,430.73 ... 1,431.90 ... 1,430.62 ... and today's 1,430.50.

Not giving traders much of a clue.

Jeff Bailey : 1/19/2007 9:25:21 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/19/2007 9:24:41 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/19/2007 5:47:50 PM

Plug those numbers into your EPS forecast model! (wink)

Jeff Bailey : 1/19/2007 5:47:27 PM

Some of today's dividend declarations (too long to list fully) at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/19/2007 5:44:39 PM


DJ- Alcoa says it plans to buy back up to 10% of its outstanding stock and hike its annual dividend by 13% to 68c a share, rewarding shareholders with cash amassed during a global industrial spurt.

AA finished up $1.10, or 3.63% at $31.40 today.

Jeff Bailey : 1/19/2007 5:41:33 PM


DJ- General Electric earnings rose to $6.58 billion, or 64c a share, as sales rise 11% to $44.62 billion. GE to restate earnings going back to 2001 to account for reporting interest rate swaps. CEO expects to sell flagging plastics unit.

GE finished $36.95 -2.76% today.

Jeff Bailey : 1/19/2007 5:03:33 PM

Plug those numbers into your economic model! (wink)

Jeff Bailey : 1/19/2007 5:03:11 PM

US Bank Business Loans Down $1.2 Billion in Latest Week

DJ- Large U.S. banks' commercial and industrial loans fell $1.2 billion to $1.191 trillion in the week ended Jan. 10, the latest week for which data are available, after rising $4.9 billion the previous week, the Federal Reserve said Friday.

Jumbo certificates of deposit at the large banks in the survey fell $19.4 billion to $1.710 trillion in the latest week after rising $16.8 billion the previous week. Revolving home equity loans rose $700 million to $472.6 billion after falling $700 million the previous week.

Federal Reserve Statistics Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/19/2007 4:36:28 PM

QQQQ ... so what do you (the subscriber) think of QQQQ from my 01/10/07 bearish stance at $44.26?

Was the bold move to $45.40 a NAKED Call squeeze? And if so, was the recent decline simply an inverse move of that as market participants got squared up?

Be honest and unbiased.

StockCharts.com's $BPNDX Link

Dorsey/Wright's BPNDX Link

Keene Little : 1/19/2007 4:21:01 PM

Considering what IBM could have done to the market today I'd say it held up very well. The DOW was up 12 points this week. Woohoo, don't spend all your profits in one place. Hope everyone has a great weekend. See you Monday.

Jane Fox : 1/19/2007 4:16:13 PM

Economic Reports for Monday January 22:

10:00a.m. Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index/ Previous: +0.1%.

10:00a.m. Dec Chicago Fed Natl Activity Index. Previous: -0.26.

Jeff Bailey : 1/19/2007 4:09:43 PM

QQQQ not official, but $44.17 was 04:00 tick. $44.12 extended.

Jeff Bailey : 1/19/2007 4:08:43 PM

7 minutes until cash close ... DIA $125.53, SPY $142.92

Jeff Bailey : 1/19/2007 4:07:33 PM

Labranche (LAB) $9.07 +0.88% ... didn't even put up a fight for $10.00 and at today's expiration the LAB-AB go no bid. No "tax loss bounce" and this NYSE specialist firm's trade action may well suggest the computerized trade execution the trend for the future.

Keene Little : 1/19/2007 4:05:22 PM

Here's another reason to think the rally in MER is done, and this time the pullback could be a lot more severe than 20%. As the wave count shows on this daily chart, it has completed a 5-wave move up from June and hit its Fib projection where wave-5 = wave-1 (at 97.54). Getting a complete retracement of the rally from June would be expected (for a -33% correction). Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/19/2007 4:04:11 PM

AMTD $17.47 -0.51% ... they got it below $17.50.

Jeff Bailey : 1/19/2007 3:59:07 PM

Good Gravy! ... SLB $61.00 +5.35%

Jeff Bailey : 1/19/2007 3:55:43 PM

Motorola (MOT) $19.30 +3.15% ... on today's "bad news."

Another Red Hat-like trade in the making?

Keene Little : 1/19/2007 3:54:05 PM

Just pulled this off stansberryresearch.com (by Jeff Clark). Makes one want to go hmm...

It's dij` vu all over again.

Last April, as the market marched higher in spite of numerous technical sell signals, Merrill Lynch (MER) announced record earnings. The stock gapped higher, reversed, and then closed near the lows of the day. Over the following two months, shares of MER would go on to lose 20%.

The action in Merrill Lynch last April preceded an 8% correction in the S&P 500 by about two weeks.

Yesterday, as the market marched higher in spite of numerous technical sell signals, Merrill Lynch announced record earnings. The stock gapped higher, reversed, and then closed near the lows of the day.

Care to guess what comes next?

So if we get a new high in the DOW by the end of next week that will could be close enough to 2 weeks after MER's high. Hmm...

Jeff Bailey : 1/19/2007 3:51:24 PM

BIX.X 400.60 -0.38% ... not "known" for heavy option action, but you've got to wonder.

Jeff Bailey : 1/19/2007 3:49:40 PM

A lot can still happen ... UP and DOWN, but DIA $125.50

Marc Eckelberry : 1/19/2007 3:57:33 PM

The DOW should hit 12158 before Q1 is over. Maybe a trip to YM 12700 first, which is why it is easier to cost average short on bounces. Daytrading this as bulls and bears struggle will just clean you put. Go for the bigger picture and use those declining premiums. It's 40 points now between cash and YM. Use it to your advantage as the quarter unwinds.

Jeff Bailey : 1/19/2007 3:49:09 PM

YM 12,609 ... should be get'n some at 12,610

Jeff Bailey : 1/19/2007 3:47:51 PM

YM short close out alert ... stick a bid at 12,610

Jane Fox : 1/19/2007 3:47:13 PM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Core inflation is too high and must come down before the Federal Reserve can consider another stance for monetary policy, said Thomas Hoenig, the president of Kansas City Fed bank and a voting FOMC member this year. At the moment, the FOMC has a "tightening bias," leaning in the direction of more rate hikes to combat inflation. Some economists have said the Fed might move to a more balanced stance in coming months. But in a speech, Hoenig threw some cold water on the Fed relaxing its vigilance. He said core CPI inflation was at 2.6% year-on-year and this "higher than where it needs to be." "My own view is that core inflation needs to be much closer to 2.0%," he said. "So for me, we want to see assurances that that is coming down... and that it is sustainable. So as that begins to occur, then we can begin to talk about other [policy] choices that might be out there," he said. Hoenig said the Fed funds rate at 5.25% was at a level that would bring inflation down steadily.

Keene Little : 1/19/2007 3:41:02 PM

Unless they can do a final push into the close it's looking like QQQQ will close closer to 44 than 44.50.

Jeff Bailey : 1/19/2007 3:31:58 PM

YM short lower stop alert to 12,622.

YM 12,610.

Jeff Bailey : 1/19/2007 3:30:03 PM

IBM $96.17 -3.29% ... $97.50, or $95.00? ... 30-minutes until its close.

Marc Eckelberry : 1/19/2007 3:27:07 PM

I think the index to short is YM. It has benefited from an inordinate amount of "safe parking", when in fact it can get in real trouble if rates go up, which is what is happening. Every time those yields go up, "safe" money will be attracted by them and shuffle things around.

Jeff Bailey : 1/19/2007 3:26:41 PM

SPY $142.87

Jeff Bailey : 1/19/2007 3:26:25 PM

QQQQ $44.15

Jeff Bailey : 1/19/2007 3:25:38 PM

DIA $125.52 ... YM 12,613

Jeff Bailey : 1/19/2007 3:21:01 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/19/2007 3:03:14 PM

03:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/19/2007 2:55:21 PM

Have you also slapped a "dynamic" retracement on the YM? Yep... need it back below 50% of 12,605 on a consistent basis.

Jeff Bailey : 1/19/2007 2:49:43 PM

11-minutes until the top of the hour. The "most important hour of the day." And January's option expiration!

Jeff Bailey : 1/19/2007 2:48:54 PM

YM 12,610 ...

Keene Little : 1/19/2007 2:48:44 PM

I didn't draw it on the RUT chart I just posted but the uptrend line from August through the October 3rd low will be at 787 on Monday. This line has been acting as support and resistance as the RUT has cycled up and down around it since first breaking it this month, recovering above it and then breaking it again this week. The Fibs and that trend line at 787 makes for a very interesting level to look to short this index (assuming of course it gets there). This would be at ER 791.90

Jeff Bailey : 1/19/2007 2:48:28 PM

Then keep your finger on the button.

Jeff Bailey : 1/19/2007 2:48:06 PM

Then click to a 60-minute interval.

Jeff Bailey : 1/19/2007 2:47:41 PM

click to a 10-minute interval chart of YM with 21-pd and 50-pd SMA's. Both at 12,604 and curling lower. 200-pd stillllllll trending up a bit at 12,619.

Keene Little : 1/19/2007 2:40:56 PM

While I've been talking about my expectation for a new high for the market I will say I'm getting a completely different read from the RUT. While it's certainly possible we'll see the blue chips rally to new highs while the techs and small caps sink lower, I'm never comfortable (with either side) when the market displays a large divergence. That would of course be bearish for the broader market but not necessarily all at the same time.

The RUT has given us a very clean 5-wave move down this week and that impulsive move tells me its trend has changed to down. We're currently getting a bounce and if it turns out to be a 3-wave (a-b-c) bounce, as it currently is, and then turns back down and makes a new low then I'll be thinking nothing but short on this index. Two equal legs up for the bounce lands it on top of a 50% retracement of this week's decline, at 787. Link

In the meantime I'm waiting for more clarity on SPX and DOW but until proven otherwise I see higher for them next week.

Jane Fox : 1/19/2007 2:40:44 PM

This is no time to be short. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/19/2007 2:32:50 PM

YM 5-minute interval chart at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/19/2007 2:30:47 PM

In other words ... "no 10 lots"

Jeff Bailey : 1/19/2007 2:28:24 PM

NYSE a/d 2,186/1,047 ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/19/2007 2:27:24 PM

Slap a regression channel on this thing from Wednesday afternoon's high to that 02:15 PM relative high.

Keene Little : 1/19/2007 2:27:04 PM

We started the week at DOW 12553. It's currently at 12565 so a whopping 12 point gain so far for the week. But I supposed that's better than NDX which is down 44 (-2.4%) and the RUT which is down 10 (-1.3%). The RUT was even worse off this morning (down 19 points) but has recovered half of this week's loss just today.

Jeff Bailey : 1/19/2007 2:26:16 PM

YM 12,607 ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/19/2007 2:23:15 PM

YM 12,618 bumping QCharts' DAILY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 1/19/2007 2:21:10 PM

YM short alert here at 12,614, stop 12,626, target 12,565

Jeff Bailey : 1/19/2007 2:15:45 PM

Is DIA influence $125.00 (like QQQQ $44), or $126.00?

Jeff Bailey : 1/19/2007 2:14:16 PM

Now's a time when I wish I had been following DIA's OI into January expiration.

Jeff Bailey : 1/19/2007 2:13:39 PM

DIA $125.48

YM 12,610

Jeff Bailey : 1/19/2007 2:11:14 PM

Did see a build in Crude Oil Inventory last week too. Other refiners doing some maintenance in other regions?

Keene Little : 1/19/2007 2:10:18 PM

One thing to keep in mind about the program trading volume data on the NYSE--several months ago they changed how they measure it. They used to measure both sides of the trade for program trades. This makes sense since total trading volume still includes both sides of the trade. Since the program trading volume now includes only the one side (e.g., a program buy only includes the buy side but ignores the sell side) you need to double their figures for the real program induced trading volume.

So the 30.1% for January 8-12 is in actuality 60.2%. That makes quite a difference when you see how much is being driven by these computer programs. No doubt the NYSE made this change so as to make it look like there's less program trading being done. Just another deceitful practice by the industry.

Jeff Bailey : 1/19/2007 2:08:38 PM

Hmmmm.... for Denver,CO region, that may have gasoline/diesel prices staying firm at the pump.

Jeff Bailey : 1/19/2007 2:07:19 PM

Suncor Energy begins planned maintenance activities at Commerce City refinery

DJ- Suncor Energy (U.S.A.) Inc. announced that a planned maintenance shutdown on one of the refinery's crude units will begin today.

The remainder of the plant will remain in operation and Suncor will continue to produce products throughout the shutdown. Suncor has made the necessary preparations for the shutdown to ensure all customer supply agreements will be met.

The maintenance activities on the crude unit are expected to take approximately 16 days, including shutdown and start-up.

Suncor's objective is to complete all work safely while minimizing any impacts on our neighbors, our customers and the environment.

Suncor Energy (U.S.A.) Inc. is a wholly-owned subsidiary of Suncor Energy Inc., an integrated energy company based in Calgary, Canada. Suncor Energy U.S.A.'s business includes refining operations and retail sales in the Denver area under the Phillips 66(R) brand, and pipeline operations in Colorado and Wyoming. Suncor's common shares (symbol: SU) are listed on the New York and Toronto stock exchanges.

Marc Eckelberry : 1/19/2007 2:05:36 PM

Shorting tech is a little dangerous for now, since Cramer told everyone to do it (after telling everyone to buy techs last week, including AAPL and GOOG, which only full time daytraders could do correctly and get out ok). Let some short covering take place first and see how far they push MSFT ahead of earnings.

Jeff Bailey : 1/19/2007 2:03:46 PM

NYSE Program Trading Averaged 30.1% Of Volume (Jan. 8-12)

DJ- Educational Table Link

Keene Little : 1/19/2007 1:50:04 PM

It seems like a slow low volume day but actually total volume is on par with the volume we've seen this week. Just lots of churning as stocks and sectors get pinned to certain option levels. QQQQ 44 certainly seems to be one of them. There's a lot of open interest at both 44 and 45 and coming into this week I was wondering if we'd see the cubes (quads?) pinned to 44.50 by the end of Friday.

Marc Eckelberry : 1/19/2007 1:45:45 PM

My scalping YM chart: Link

Keene Little : 1/19/2007 1:39:58 PM

Correction to my post on uptrend support for QQQQ--it should be 43.35, not 44.35. But you knew what I meant (wink).

Jeff Bailey : 1/19/2007 1:37:39 PM

baaaa.... YM 12,598

Marc Eckelberry : 1/19/2007 1:42:39 PM

As a rule, don't short a breakdown on any day that is not -1000 AD line or more, which is most of the time. Days like yesterday are not very common. You have to learn to only short bounces. Right now, I would patiently wait for NQ to move back up to its 5 and 10 DMA at 1827/1829. That way, you can use a tight stop. If you don't get it, don't bother. Shorting is a pro's game and many lose money at it because they break the simple rule: only short bounces. That is especially true for scalpers and daytraders using intraday exponential moving averages (simple for day + week charts, exponential for intraday).

Jeff Bailey : 1/19/2007 1:35:36 PM

Unusual NYSE Stock Moves Hottrend: ENT, ELY, TXT, AZZ, WL, BEC, CCI, AHT, ITC, TRI, CXW, RAS, WY, TRW, IHG

Jeff Bailey : 1/19/2007 1:34:24 PM


Keene Little : 1/19/2007 1:34:06 PM

It's going to be especially important for the techs to stay above this morning's low. If they drop to a new low then there goes the 50-dma support and next up for NDX would be its uptrend line from July through the January 3rd low, currently near 1764 (so that would be about NQ 1777 and QQQQ 44.35)

Jeff Bailey : 1/19/2007 1:29:51 PM

YM 12,610 ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/19/2007 1:28:09 PM

AA $31.44 +3.76% ... overtakes GM $31.26 +1.49% for #27.

Jeff Bailey : 1/19/2007 1:26:35 PM

BA $88.80 +0.90% ... overtakes MO $87.18 -0.88% for #2 spot in YM/INDU/DIA weighting.

Jeff Bailey : 1/19/2007 1:16:32 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 1/19/2007 1:15:15 PM

Crude is being jostled around by contract rotation (selling Feb, buying March). I suspect the buying in the March contract will subside Tuesday.

Keene Little : 1/19/2007 1:14:14 PM

As Denise has informed me, the DAX finished at a 6-year high today and believes "they are smoking some of our stuff". See, we're a generous people and share everyting. She also reminded me that MER is up, and in fact just spiked up as I'm typing. Follow mother MER and you'll often be on the right side of the market.

Jeff Bailey : 1/19/2007 1:09:23 PM

CRB still around its WEEKLY Pivot. Feb Crude Oil expires Monday.

Jeff Bailey : 1/19/2007 1:08:08 PM

Looks like a "back tick" this morning to 10.33, but 11.03 still on the chart

Keene Little : 1/19/2007 1:04:05 PM

If you think we've got more downside coming, watch the little bounce in progress now. Two equal legs up from this morning's low is at ES 1436.50 which should be resistance if this is going to turn back around and head lower. I'm not so sure about that idea and therefore will not be shorting it here. I'd rather wait to see how the larger pattern sets up which has me thinking a little more bullishly short term.

Jeff Bailey : 1/19/2007 1:02:15 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/19/2007 12:58:38 PM

Just got off the phone with my brother. He works for FRX and has a bunch of FRX stock options that he needs to do something with. Check out FRX's $54.76 +0.42% options montage.

Jeff Bailey : 1/19/2007 12:56:47 PM

YM 12,582 ... can I short here if my Day Trader's target is 12,556?

No, risk to a stop not favorable given the potential reward. Sometimes the MARKET gives a trader/investor a second chance.

I've also got to think that QCharts' DAILY S1 and DIA's S1 mark the lows. If that's the case, then I really don't want to short here.

Jeff Bailey : 1/19/2007 12:33:43 PM

Light bulb goes on?

Jeff Bailey : 1/19/2007 12:33:22 PM

CRB Index (CRY) 289.97 +1.43% (30-minute delayed) ... WEEKLY Pivot right here.

Jeff Bailey : 1/19/2007 12:32:14 PM

Where's the SMH and QQQQ?

Jeff Bailey : 1/19/2007 12:31:53 PM

My YM bias is bearish today, but I told myself last night that the IBM action was going to make today's DAILY Pivot Levels skewed, and to get some intraday observations before trying to trade.

Yesterday, the YM "jumped" within a point of my 12,646 stop to 12,645. Today's intraday high so far.... 12,635, so "6" does seem to be a key number.

That "overlap" down at 12,556 looks like a possible target.

Jeff Bailey : 1/19/2007 12:28:12 PM

What's perplexing about today is IBM's action/impact on futures into their close vs. DIA's close, and then the Option Expiration.

Keene Little : 1/19/2007 12:27:20 PM

Oh, I'm still a bear. I just like the SPX 1455 target from a Fib projection standpoint. I've given up on figuring out why this market is rallying and have no clue why it would rally another 2%. But so far that's the way I'm leaning. That will change in a hurry if SPX drops below 1404.

Jeff Bailey : 1/19/2007 12:26:46 PM

YM "coiling" around the 12,590 level now.

Jeff Bailey : 1/19/2007 12:26:27 PM

YM 5-minute interval chart with my (dark purple) DAILY Pivot retracement and R1/S1, as well as QCharts' DAILY Pivot levels at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 1/19/2007 12:19:25 PM

Not the time to throw in the towel...

Keene Little : 1/19/2007 12:18:40 PM

Marc, I've favored the short side for some time now. It hasn't gotten me very far (wink).

Marc Eckelberry : 1/19/2007 12:13:00 PM

I'm just a little surprised we did not hit monthly R1's in ES and YM. I suspect many traders were waiting for it, but the tech collapse changed that scenario. If NQ regains 1828, then it is possible, which would mean ES 1449, probably a bump against that old trend line in a few days. Other than that, I favor the short side.

Jeff Bailey : 1/19/2007 12:12:40 PM

YM 12,601 ... QCharts' DAILY Pivot levels are R2=12,690 (close to my 12,693), R1= 12,647, D Piv= 12,621, S1= 12,578 (ties with DIA's and current session low), S2= 12,552 (well away from my 12,527)

Jeff Bailey : 1/19/2007 12:08:37 PM

YM pivot traders .... if you use QCharts, notice how the YM trades more inline with DIA (because of IBM impacting YM close) at DAILY S1, buy my CBOT close has DAILY Pivot also showing influence.

Then roll in the DIA expiration, option montage observation and $125-ish "Max Pain" look.

Marc Eckelberry : 1/19/2007 12:08:14 PM

Contrary to last year, the time to buy will be in April/May. The time to sell is now. They do that year over year contrary stunt almost every year now.

Marc Eckelberry : 1/19/2007 12:03:17 PM

One of the reasons I think we are close to done is RLX which shows signs of topping out, right along with the CC numbers. Bearish divergence on higher high and massively extended. Christmas is over with not many consumer purchase catalysts left, other than Vista next quarter. But that's next quarter.

Marc Eckelberry : 1/19/2007 11:56:38 AM

I was hoping for YM 12700 this week, but I never got it.

Jeff Bailey : 1/19/2007 11:55:44 AM

DIA Options Montage at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 1/19/2007 11:54:12 AM

opex pin is between QQQQ 44 and NDX 1800.

Marc Eckelberry : 1/19/2007 11:52:39 AM

ES 1439 might have been on final gift to shorts before heading lower. The action right now looks symptomatic of laggard bulls chasing a dying rally.

Keene Little : 1/19/2007 11:51:30 AM

The alternative to a blow-off move to the upside, especially considering it might take a week to finish putting in the high, is that we'll see a very choppy move up (creating a small ascending wedge in the process). It would be indicative of more distribution going on--push it higher, sell into it, push it a little higher, sell into it. But for this to happen this morning's lows need to hold otherwise we could be looking for SPX to drop down to the 1420 (ES 1427) area next.

Jeff Bailey : 1/19/2007 11:48:36 AM

Check out your DIA options montage. Note this morning's low at DAILY S1 of $125.20.

Marc Eckelberry : 1/19/2007 11:44:53 AM

Maybe, but bulls will need a big company with a strong forward guidance, which has been lacking 5 for 5 now. MSFT could be the catalyst. Right now, it's sell the rallies mode since everyone is missing on guidance.

Keene Little : 1/19/2007 11:42:59 AM

Marc, if we pull back further then you're right--we'll probably see VIX hitting 12. But I think we'll get the blow-off top and a VIX to new record lows. It would be a classic finish to this.

Jeff Bailey : 1/19/2007 11:40:50 AM

Dow Jones US Home Construction (DJUSHB) 731.46 +1.75% ... making a move to test another (2nd) downward trend Link

Marc Eckelberry : 1/19/2007 11:39:52 AM

Keene, the only problem I have with that is where the VIX is sitting. I think it moves up to 12 before we can start another sustained rally.

Keene Little : 1/19/2007 11:29:55 AM

In last night's Wrap I showed this weekly chart of SPX and a Fib projection at 1455 which is where it would have two equal legs up from the October 2002 low. Link

Dialing in much closer, since the pullback from December's high to the January low, I've been saying we need to get a 3-wave move to a new high in order to finish the rally from July (a 3-wave move for the 5th wave in an ascending wedge from November). We had one wave up from the January low to Wednesday's high. We've had a small pullback (larger for ER and NQ) to yesterday's low. If we now get another wave up to match the January 8-17 rally that projects to 1455. I can't make this stuff up. Link

The trend lines that cross at 1455 on the chart is on January 25th and makes for an interesting possibility here. This will all obviously change (maybe) if the pullback continues but for now it's looking like the pullback could be finished and we're starting the next leg (wave-C) up.

Jeff Bailey : 1/19/2007 11:27:21 AM

QQQQ Options Montage at this Link

QQQQ Options Montage from 01/10/07 13:38:07 capture at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/19/2007 11:16:17 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Note: It would take a closing measure of BELOW 72.00% for the NASDAQ's 5-day NH/NL ratio to reverse back lower. It would take a close measure of BELOW 62.00% for its 10-day NH/NL ratio to reverse back lower.

Jane Fox : 1/19/2007 11:05:57 AM

TRIN continues to climb and is now at 1.1.

Jane Fox : 1/19/2007 11:05:29 AM

VIX back to 10.49

Jeff Bailey : 1/19/2007 11:03:17 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/19/2007 11:00:12 AM

VIX 11.02 now

Jane Fox : 1/19/2007 10:58:34 AM

Jeff I think we just had a very bad tick on the VIX. Don't know how that happens but it does.

Jeff Bailey : 1/19/2007 10:58:20 AM

SPY $143.00 +0.31% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/19/2007 10:57:18 AM

VIX gets wild ... 10.33 -4.79% ... just went 11.02-10.37

Keene Little : 1/19/2007 10:57:02 AM

Interesting that Pulte Home (PHM) has splashed cold water on the "bottom" theory (by ridding itself of land, and options to buy more, they're saying they don't see a bottom in sight) and yet the home builder index continues to rally today. It looks like some wishful thinking there but don't argue with price.

As I showed in last night's Wrap, it looks like the index has been in a bull flag since the December high and gives me the impression it will push higher again. But the larger bear flag pattern on the weekly chart since the July low continues to suggest the home builders will get another leg down this year. Resistance for the index (DJUSHB) will be at its downtrend line from January through the December high, currently at 732 (printing 728.56 here).

Jane Fox : 1/19/2007 10:54:20 AM

TRIn started out very bullish this morning but has been climbing all day and has returned to neutral at 1.00. I never get too excited about a climbing TRIN if is under 1 but really bullish days would see it move sideways and not up. Not to say the bears are taking over but just shows the bulls are not as strong as they used to be.

Jane Fox : 1/19/2007 10:43:48 AM

BOSTON (MarketWatch) -- Pulte Homes Inc. shares traded higher Friday after the home builder warned it may post a fourth-quarter loss but said it would make an aggressive effort to strengthen its balance sheet by taking charges to reduce its land inventory.

Pulte, Bloomfield Hills, Mich., "continues to navigate through a challenging operating environment, with demand for new homes during the fourth quarter still far below pre-2006 levels," Chief Executive Richard Dugas said in a statement, throwing cold water on hopes that housing has bottomed.

Jeff Bailey : 1/19/2007 10:40:26 AM

Schlumberger (SLB) $60.26 +4.07% ... Earnings Press Release Link

Consensus was for EPS of $0.85 on Revenue of $5.14B

Jeff Bailey : 1/19/2007 10:36:33 AM

Citigroup (C) $53.90 -0.90% ... Earnings Press Release Link

Consensus was for EPS of $1.01 on Revenue of $22.45B

Keene Little : 1/19/2007 10:31:05 AM

The higher sentiment number shouldn't be a surprise. For several months now, and especially through the holidays, we've heard nothing but bullish statements. Retail spending has been good (not stellar but good), the DOW has made a gazillion new all-time highs, housing is bottoming and we'll have a strong spring season (cough), and we have a record high number of bullish analysts as compared to bearish.

We are in an extremely bullish frame of mind right now and it's reflected in the stock market. The big question of course is when that sentiment will turn. We're at an extreme so it will turn.

Jane Fox : 1/19/2007 10:31:05 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Treasury prices losses intensified Friday morning, sending yields higher, after the University of Michigan's monthly sentiment survey reached its highest level in three years.

An optimistic consumer is likely to stimulate economic growth, a development that in general is negative for the fixed-income market.

Jane Fox : 1/19/2007 10:16:12 AM

The consumer sentiment report out at 10:00 will put upward pressure on the market today. HMMM the TRIN was really low this morning, ever wonder why?

Jane Fox : 1/19/2007 10:11:46 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- A gauge of consumer sentiment improved in January to the highest level in three years, according to research at the University of Michigan on Friday, Reuters reported. The consumer sentiment index rose to 98.0 in January from 91.7 in December. The increase was well above the consensus forecast of Wall Street economists who had expected sentiment to rise to 92.0. The current conditions index rose to 112.5 in January from 108.1 in December. It's the highest since July 2005. The expectations index rose from 81.2 to 88.7, the highest since December 2004. Consumers' expectations about inflation over the next five years remained at 3%.

Jane Fox : 1/19/2007 10:07:20 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Crude-oil futures rose early Friday, finding support in rallying natural-gas prices amid forecasts for below normal temperatures across much of the U.S. in the coming days. "While certainly bullish, it will hardly be sufficient to significantly eat into the huge storage overhang," said Mike Fitzpatrick, energy analyst at Fimat USA. Natural gas was last up 26.4 cents at $6.586, a 4.2% gain. Crude rose 33 cents to $50.83 a barrel.

Jane Fox : 1/19/2007 10:06:49 AM

That little push from the Consumer Sentiment was short lived.

Jane Fox : 1/19/2007 10:04:47 AM

* Jan. UMich current conditions 112.5 vs. 108.1
* Jan. UMich 98.0, highest since Jan. 2004

Jane Fox : 1/19/2007 10:02:53 AM

Jan. UMich consumer sentiment 98.0 vs. 91.7: Reuters

Keene Little : 1/19/2007 10:01:54 AM

The way YM and ES have been chopping lower over the past two days leads me to believe that it's either a corrective pullback which will lead to antoher push higher (the way I'm currently leaning) or else it's getting ready to rip to the downside. I don't think short is the place to be today.

Jane Fox : 1/19/2007 9:58:47 AM

Market feel heavy doesn't it?

Keene Little : 1/19/2007 9:49:19 AM

DOW can't get a lift yet but it does seem to be finding some support at the moment at the lows of the past 2 days. If it drops lower then potential support is at the 30-min 100 and 130-pma's at 12511 and 12525 (cash).

Keene Little : 1/19/2007 9:39:33 AM

It looks like they're trying to push YM back up to near its 4:00 closing price whereas the DOW is doen 20 points. Cash should follow if they can keep the buying pressure up here.

Jane Fox : 1/19/2007 9:38:51 AM

AD line falling and is now -228 but AD volume still above 0. We are getting a lot of jostling around so far with no direction.

Jane Fox : 1/19/2007 9:36:01 AM

TRIn is printing a very bullish 0.54.

Jane Fox : 1/19/2007 9:36:23 AM

Well I wasn't far off, the AD line is +60 and AD volume barely above 0.

Keene Little : 1/19/2007 9:22:13 AM

IBM dropped $5 in after hours yesterday so they'll be a drag on the DOW, and YM is down a little more than ES and NQ but so far the futures are more neutral than anything. ER is down but after this week's decline it looks ready for a correction back up. It could easily go either way this morning so it may be best to let the dust settle for a bit. It being opex Friday we might also find most of the price action for the week has already happened.

Jane Fox : 1/19/2007 9:13:58 AM

I bailed on my short Q position when NQ made new yearly highs but will open another soon. THe screeching halt at the 100EMA has me wondering what kind of support it will be again. Link

Jane Fox : 1/19/2007 9:09:55 AM

ES is still trading in its upward channel and the 50 EMA is still following its lower trendline. And I still will remain on the sidelines until I see a close below the 50EMA. However, I am getting more and more convinced that the next test of the 50 will fail and iching to put on a short position. Link

Jane Fox : 1/19/2007 9:01:26 AM

The overnight session was mostly sideways but hugging PDLs suggesting there is more downside yet to come. I expect the AD line and volume will both be under 0 when they open. Link

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