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Jeff Bailey : 1/23/2007 1:21:32 AM

Intuit (INTU) Upgraded To "Overweight" from "Neutral" By JP Morgan

INTU $31.03 +0.09% Link ...

Keene Little : 1/22/2007 11:47:42 PM

Since we got a small bounce started Monday afternoon it will be important to hold above the Monday low. For the DOW, as can be seen in the 120-min chart, a break below Monday's low will also be close to breaking below its uptrend line from the end of November, currently near 12440. That uptrend line is the bottom of what I believe is the ascending wedge for the 5th wave of the rally from July. Link

The 5th of the 5th wave, as I'm counting it, started at the January low and it should be an a-b-c move to a new high and that's what I'm depicting on the chart. Monday's pullback should have completed wave-b and now I'm looking for a rally in wave-c to finish off the whole rally from July. We're that close.

We could be even closer if the market continues lower from Monday afternoon's bounce. In that case the January high would be labeled wave-5 instead of just wave-a of 5. A drop below January's low (DOW 12337, SPX 1404) would seal it for the bears. At this point I'd say heads up for the possibility of a top if DOW drops below 12440 but until that happens I'm still looking up.

For an upside target the January high was close to the Fib projection near 12630 that I had been discussing for most of January. In the rally from July the 5th wave (which started in early November) would be 162% of the 1st wave (back in July) at 12626. The most common relationships between these two waves, and between a-waves and c-waves, is 62%, 100% and 162%.

Now looking at the move up from January's low, if Monday's low is the end of the wave-b pullback then wave-c will equal 62% of wave-a at 12621. Not bad Fib correlation there.

But if wave-c is to equal wave-a then we get an upside target at 12727. That upper target also gets SPX closer to its potential 1450 target area. First things first though--we'll see if we get a rally on Tuesday and then take it from there.

Jeff Bailey : 1/22/2007 11:42:32 PM

Dorsey/Wright's S&P 100 Bullish % (BPOEX) also fell by 2% with a net loss of 2 stocks to reversing lower PnF sell signals (BA and CAT). Still "bull confirmed" at 79% (reached 83% on 12/14/06).

Jeff Bailey : 1/22/2007 11:36:48 PM

According to Dorsey/Wright & Associates the very narrow (just 30 stocks) Dow Industrials Bullish % (BPDJIA) fell 6.66% to 76.66% with a net loss of two (2) stocks to reversing lower PnF sell signals. Boeing (BA) $86 and Caterpillar (CAT) $58.

Keene Little : 1/22/2007 10:07:41 PM

Tuesday's pivot tables: Link and Link

OI Technical Staff : 1/22/2007 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

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Keene Little : 1/22/2007 8:08:35 PM

I see that I left pretty much at the bottom of today's pullback so long was the place to be from just after lunch. Unfortunately that would have made you only lunch money. But the pattern for the bounce is constructive and looks like it should press higher on Tuesday. If you're long from today's pullback I'll be looking for two equal legs up and we'll see what happens from there. That gives us ES 1433 and YM 12539.

That's not a lot of upside and I see YM tagged that level just before 4:00 so it's possible we'll see another leg down from this bounce. Therefore only trade this move--don't hang onto it (that goes for both directions for now). The 30 and 60-min charts have moved up into overbought (fast stochastics setting) so it means caution on the long side as long as the daily is pointing down.

Jeff Bailey : 1/22/2007 6:26:21 PM

February Crude Oil (cl07g) settled down $0.86, or -1.65% at $51.13.

March Crude Oil futures (cl07h) settled down $0.82, or -1.53% at $52.58.

I will "roll" unleaded, heating oil and nat gas futures in the U.S. Market Watch to March starting tomorrow morning.

Jeff Bailey : 1/22/2007 6:18:10 PM

NASDAQ NH/NL Ratio Chart at this Link

Note: "f"ive day NH/NL measures, and X/O are 10-day NH/NL measures. YELLOW "f"ive day are inflection high/low measures from 12/01/06 (see table 05:23:55)

Jeff Bailey : 1/22/2007 5:32:55 PM

NYSE, NASDAQ and SPX NH/NL table (from 12/01/06) at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/22/2007 5:09:32 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/22/2007 5:00:51 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/22/2007 4:15:51 PM

Buy Program Premium ... YM 12,535

Jane Fox : 1/22/2007 4:15:09 PM

Economic Reports for tomorrow:

10:00a.m.Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index. Expected: +0.3%. Previous: +0.1%.

10:00a.m. Jan Richmond Fed Mfg Business Index. Previous: -6.

Jane Fox : 1/22/2007 3:21:09 PM

TICKS -1000 Wowser!!

Jeff Bailey : 1/22/2007 3:17:30 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/22/2007 3:02:43 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/22/2007 2:33:05 PM

Windows Vista Expected to Generate $2 Billion in New Revenue for Massachusetts IT Industry in 2007

Expected to drive 5,000 new jobs in state.

DJ- Massachusetts's IT industry is expected to experience a significant financial impact as a result of the launch of the Windows Vista(TM) operating system. According to a research study recently completed by IDC and commissioned by Microsoft Corp., within the first year of the Windows Vista shipment, Massachusetts's IT industry will begin seeing considerable increases in new jobs and revenue. The study's findings indicate that Windows Vista will provide a foundation for the IT market, with more than 18 percent of total IT employment being related to Windows Vista. In addition, total Windows(R)-related employment in Massachusetts is expected to jump by more than 5,000 new jobs.

Windows Vista, together with the 2007 Microsoft(R) Office system, was made available on Nov. 30 to Volume Licensing customers and will be broadly available on Jan. 30.

"Windows Vista will create additional revenues for Microsoft in Massachusetts, but will also create even bigger economic ripples throughout the ecosystem that sells products and services in Massachusetts that run on or work with it," said John Gantz, chief research officer and senior vice president of IDC. "Windows Vista's footprint in the state will be wide, as original equipment manufacturers sell PCs that run on it, software companies sell applications that run it, and services and distribution firms deliver, install, support and train on it. We expect that in the first year of Windows Vista shipments, this ecosystem will sell more than $2 billion of Windows Vista-related products and services in Massachusetts."

Microsoft partners -- companies that sell hardware, write software, provide IT services or serve as IT distribution channels -- will also feel the impact of Windows Vista because it will drive substantial revenue and growth for Microsoft-centric companies. According to the study, the release of Windows Vista will help strengthen the more than 6,500 Massachusetts IT companies that will produce, sell or distribute products and services running on Windows Vista. The study also forecasts that each dollar of Windows Vista- related revenue earned by Microsoft in 2007 will generate more than $18 in revenue for the ecosystem beyond Microsoft.

"Microsoft is proud to bring products to market that help infuse economic growth here in Massachusetts," said Ted MacLean New England District general manager at Microsoft. "This launch is generating economic opportunities in Massachusetts and across the nation by creating jobs, enabling organizational efficiencies and helping solve business challenges for our customers, partners and the IT industry as a whole."

Microsoft's ecosystem is making a sizable investment to prepare for and roll out Windows Vista worldwide, according to the IDC study. Between now and the end of 2007, IDC expects Microsoft partners to invest approximately $400 million in Windows Vista-related products and services.

The complete Massachusetts IDC study on the economic impact of Windows Vista is available at Link

Jane Fox : 1/22/2007 2:10:59 PM

This little rally should be a good spot to get short again. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/22/2007 2:04:23 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List at this Link

January's Trade Blotter of CLOSED Trades found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/22/2007 1:51:53 PM

CME's May, August and November Housing Futures benchmarks at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/22/2007 1:23:25 PM

01:10 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/22/2007 1:12:40 PM

01:10 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 1/22/2007 1:12:04 PM

* NYSE decliners outnumber advancers 21 to 11
* Nasdaq decliners outnumber advancers 20 to 9

Jane Fox : 1/22/2007 1:10:36 PM

TICKS +800 - all over the dang place today.

Jane Fox : 1/22/2007 1:06:01 PM

TICKS -800

Jeff Bailey : 1/22/2007 1:04:07 PM

QQQQ ... Now the daily interval chart with the "drag it up" (pink) retracement at this Link

On Friday, 12/22/06 the QQQQ close a penny ($0.01) below the then PINK 19.1% retracement.

Keene Little : 1/22/2007 12:58:32 PM

No bounce yet. It looks like we should be bouncing soon but if it breaks down instead it could be swift. Unfortunately I have to run off to a Dr.'s appointment (annual physical) and will most likely miss the rest of the day. I'll offer some closing commentary as soon as I return (and with luck it'll be before the market closes).

Jeff Bailey : 1/22/2007 12:53:57 PM

QQQQ 60-minute interval chart with WEEKLY/MONTHLY Pivot retracement at this Link

Jane Fox : 1/22/2007 12:53:43 PM

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Pfizer Inc. (PFE) said Monday it is restructuring its U.S. pharmaceutical operations into four business units, each led by a general manager, and a fifth business unit responsible for customer support. The New York-based pharmaceutical giant said also said it will simplify its research and development organization by consolidating each of the research teams focused on any given therapeutic area to one of four major sites. Each therapeutic area will be run by a single leader. Pfizer added that it plans to exit discovery research in gastroenterology and dermatology, but will continue to develop drug compounds already in the pipeline and to seek "external opportunities" in these areas. "Our simplified structure will help drive the growth of our expanding pipeline -- including our goal to deliver four new internally generated products per year by 2011 -- while maintaining current R&D investment levels," said John LaMattina, head of Pfizer global research and development, in a statement.

Keene Little : 1/22/2007 12:30:20 PM

That last little probe lower got SPX within 0.22 of its downside target for two equal legs down from last week. ES has now tagged its downside target at 1427 on the nose. Now we'll see if the bulls take over.

Keene Little : 1/22/2007 12:28:44 PM

As Jane pointed out, the uptrend lines and 50-dma's will be important to watch on the DOW and SPX. For the DOW, the uptrend line from the end of November is currently at 12431 (cash) so another 30 points lower. If the DOW is going to give us "one more high" (to finish its A-B-C move up from January's low) then that uptrend line will hold. With its 50-dma at 12352 and the January low at 12337, any break below these will be very bearish. At that point I'd give up on any expectation for another high and would say we've seen THE high for this market. But not yet.

Jeff Bailey : 1/22/2007 12:28:04 PM

Tax Reform Panel Backed Health Insurance Changes

DJ- President's plan to revamp tax treatment of employer-provided health care, to be unveiled in tomorrow's State of the Union speech, was one of several controversial ideas pushed by Bush's tax reform panel in 2005.

Jeff Bailey : 1/22/2007 12:20:09 PM


DJ- Royal Philips Electronics' 4Q net profit more than doubles to $882 million on divestiture and lower tax rate. Sales miss expectations and firm expects a "challenging" 1Q for its consumer-electronics unit.

PHG $37.33 -1.55% Link ...

Keene Little : 1/22/2007 12:16:34 PM

Oil has done a nice bounce the past two days but I'm not so sure that has put in its low yet. Looking at the February contract it has now made it up to its 10-dma at 53.45 (today's high so far is 53.44) and two equal legs up in its bounce off last week's low is at 53.41. If it tops out here in its bounce and turns back down then we could see it head for stronger support near 48. For the March contract that would be just above 49.

Jeff Bailey : 1/22/2007 12:12:52 PM


DJ- Jerry Moyes, founder of Swift Transportation, plans to take the trucking firm private for $31.55 per share, compared with Friday's closing price of $27.74. His group also will assume $332 million in debt.

SWFT $30.27 +9.12% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/22/2007 12:10:55 PM


DJ- Silicon Valley rivals appear ready to work together after negotiating an agreement under which Sun would buy Intel chips for use in server systems, according to people briefed about Sun's plans. Press conference set for 1 p.m. EST.

SUNW $5.78 +0.17% Link

INTC $20.80 -0.09% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/22/2007 12:08:32 PM


DJ- Drug maker's 4Q net income jumps to $9.45 billion, or $1.32 a share, boosted by $16.6 billion sale of its consumer division to J&J. Revenue is nearly flat at $12.6 billion, while adjusted earnings fall 12% to 43c a share on loss of Zoloft exclusivity.

PFE $26.78 -1.61% Link ...

Jane Fox : 1/22/2007 12:02:44 PM

Same story for the DOW as for the S&P, I don't think the lower trendline will hold and a close below the 50EMA is the time I will start building a short position. Link

Keene Little : 1/22/2007 12:00:58 PM

Treasury yields have been consolidating sideways while stochastics (fast setting) drops down out of overbought. This looks to be setting up another run higher once the consolidation is finished. As the 10 and 30-year yields head higher towards 5% that will only add pressure to equities--more and more money managers will abandon the higher risk in stocks, especially considering the age of the bull market, and instead look to lock in some safe returns.

The daily chart of the 30-year yield (TYX) shows an old downtrend line from January 2000 that has acted as support and resistance since April 2006. It's currently acting as resistance but again, with the consolidation just underneath that trend line it's looking bullish here. A run up to its 200-dma would have the 30-year yield at 4.95%. I might even get me some zero coupon bonds at that rate and tuck them away in my IRA. Link

Jane Fox : 1/22/2007 11:59:37 AM

I think the next visit down to the lower trendline and the 50EMA will not hold. However am I brave enough to to buy OEX or even SPX puts? Nope not yet. I need to see a close below this support first. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/22/2007 11:51:28 AM

QQQQ $43.62 -1.24% ... QQQ-NQ $0.45 x $0.50

Jeff Bailey : 1/22/2007 11:50:41 AM

Swing trade put establish stop alert for the three (3) QQQQ Feb $43 Puts (QQQ-NQ) at $0.15/contract. Target will be $0.90/contract.

Jeff Bailey : 1/22/2007 11:42:22 AM

Weekly/Monthly Index Pivot Matrix (10-year YIELD correction) at this Link ...

Keene Little : 1/22/2007 11:39:49 AM

ES came within two ticks of its 1427 downside target (for two equal legs down from last week's high) and SPX was a little less than a point shy of hitting its target. It could drop to a slightly lower low today but with bullish divergences building here it would be risky to expect further downside. If anything I'd be nibbling on a long to see if it works. It's possible the pullback is finished and we'll see it head higher again. The techs and small caps look like they might have put in their highs but I'm not so sure about that for the blue chips.

Jane Fox : 1/22/2007 11:35:50 AM

Although these support the new daily lows from here. Link

Jane Fox : 1/22/2007 11:34:36 AM

I see a consolidation at daily lows which tells me we will see new daily lows but please take note of Keene's post about the bullish divergences.

Jeff Bailey : 1/22/2007 11:33:55 AM

Correction alert! I typed in 49.19 for last week's 10-year YIELD ($TNX.X) high and it should be 48.19.

Correct 10-year YIELD Weekly Pivot Levels ... 46.92, 47.33, Piv= 47.75, 48.16, 48.58.

Tab Gilles : 1/22/2007 11:22:43 AM

Sector rotation continues as technology stocks are being sold.

$GSO, $GHA, $SOX, $NDX rolling over. Link Link Link Link

As is the $RUT... Link

Profunds USPIX & UCPIX... Link Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/22/2007 11:21:35 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 1/22/2007 11:21:23 AM

NQ has been building a bullish divergence since the initial spike down this morning so it may be close to putting in a bottom for today.

Jane Fox : 1/22/2007 11:15:08 AM

Last week I was commenting on how quiet the TICKS were. Well today they have come alive again.

Jane Fox : 1/22/2007 11:13:54 AM

Look at how much more active the TICKS are today. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/22/2007 11:09:43 AM

RUT.X 777.67 was down 7.49 points, or -0.95% at 11:00 AM EST benchmark.

Keene Little : 1/22/2007 11:08:38 AM

That uptrend line for NDX is about 1763.20 (printing 1771.72 here) which would be about NQ 1776.

Jane Fox : 1/22/2007 11:06:08 AM

Seems like things are just getting bearisher and bearisher (new word for the day). TICKS -800.

Keene Little : 1/22/2007 11:04:53 AM

Speaking of the quads (QQQQ), its uptrend line from August through the January 3rd low is currently near 43.30. The Qs are at 43.57 here.

Jeff Bailey : 1/22/2007 11:03:52 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Note: "Last" should be current price, but data feed not showing updated "Net" and "Net%" changes for CBOE indices today (SPX, OEX, GSO.X, BIX.X, IUX.X, RLX.X, OIX.X)

Marc Eckelberry : 1/22/2007 10:59:04 AM

Remember our discussion about accumulating YM shorts on the March contract back in December on any moves above 12600? That was a good way to build a defensive position. The premium loss by the end of Q1 is 50 points already.

Marc Eckelberry : 1/22/2007 10:57:28 AM

Keene, QQQQ will probably close that gap at 41.90/42.10 before all is said and done. Yes, we will rally occasionally, but the selling has only begun. I think techs will be a buy in Q2, not in Q1. I am treating longs as day trades only, maybe NQ 1782.25 weekly S1, but I prefer waiting for rallies to short.

Jane Fox : 1/22/2007 10:54:10 AM

Needless to say these are very bearish. Link

Jane Fox : 1/22/2007 10:50:02 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- During Tuesday evening's State of the Union address, President Bush will offer "bold" in-depth proposals on big problems that Americans care about, White House spokesman Tony Snow told reporters Monday. Snow said Bush would address health care, global warming, immigration and education in his speech. Americans want a more "patient friendly" health-care system, Snow said. On global warming, Snow said Bush would not propose a cap on carbon emissions, but would continue to push for technological innovation to create new sources of energy. Bush will reach out to the Democratic-controlled Congress to get things done, Snow said.

Jane Fox : 1/22/2007 10:49:31 AM

Looks like the Rescue team needs to pump some more air into the patient because it is in need of life support.

Keene Little : 1/22/2007 10:48:58 AM

NQ is trying to find support at 1790 (62% retracement) but may find better support at the 1786 low on January 5th. Why do I have the feeling this pullback is going to be a bear trap? Maybe because I've seen it happen so often in the past many months? What looks bearish for NDX now is the fact that its decline from the January high now looks impulsive and says it has a trend change to the downside (joining the RUT). So far the DOW and SPX have only a corrective pullback.

Jane Fox : 1/22/2007 10:48:23 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- New York City is in danger of losing its status as a major global financial center unless regulatory and accounting changes are instituted, according to Mayor Michael Bloomberg and New York Senator Charles Schumer.

The two cited a report by consulting group McKinsey & Co that said London, Japan and other parts of Asia are growing in influence and jobs, while New York is declining.

The report interviewed 50 CEOs in the financial services industry and calls for legal changes to reduce litigation and urges consolidation of federal regulatory agencies.

"The 20th century was the American century in no small part because of our economic dominance in the financial services industry, which has always been centered in New York, Bloomberg and Schumer wrote in a letter accompanying a copy of the report on Schumer's website.

"But as technology has virtually eliminated barriers to the flow of capital, it now freely flows to the most efficient markets, in all corners of the globe. Today, in addition to London, we're increasingly competing with cities like Dubai, Hong Kong, and Tokyo," they concluded

Marc Eckelberry : 1/22/2007 10:43:55 AM

ES is living on the borrowed time of energy today, most other sectors are negative.

Jane Fox : 1/22/2007 10:39:47 AM

Rescue team just arrived. TICKS +800.

Jane Fox : 1/22/2007 10:39:28 AM

YM and NQ to new daily lows. So much for NQ having the strongest price pattern overnight.

Marc Eckelberry : 1/22/2007 10:35:17 AM

2nd time in a month that NQ loses its 50 DMA. This bull market is dying.

Marc Eckelberry : 1/22/2007 10:21:43 AM

I had a bad feeling about the DOW on Friday and pretty much thought we had topped out there. Looks bad. NQ lost 50 DMA and 20 DMA, YM lost its 20 DMA. ES is holding on better thanks to energy. I'm still looking at DOW 12158 in Q1.

Jane Fox : 1/22/2007 10:16:21 AM

ER is the only market to not break its PDL so far. Link

Keene Little : 1/22/2007 10:15:44 AM

The decline in ES, assuming for the moment that we'll see it drop to 1427 and find support there, could drop to about 1429, consolidate and then give us the final low. That kind of move would set up a potential long play.

Jane Fox : 1/22/2007 10:09:37 AM

All markets have broken their ovenright lows and both YM and NQ have broken their PDLs as well now.

Jeff Bailey : 1/22/2007 10:05:45 AM

Last 3 Weekly Index Pivot Matrix found at this Link

Keene Little : 1/22/2007 10:05:44 AM

Things are certainly not looking bullish here. SPX appears to be breaking its uptrend line (if it doesn't recover here right away). That raises the possibility that we'll at least see another leg down to match the one from last week's high (for a downside target of SPX 1420.51, ES 1427).

Keene Little : 1/22/2007 9:58:35 AM

SPX is about to test its uptrend line from January 9th, currently justunder 1429.

Jeff Bailey : 1/22/2007 9:55:11 AM

Weekly/Monthly Index Pivot Matrix found at this Link

Jane Fox : 1/22/2007 9:46:01 AM

AD line is -270 and AD volume is basically 0. No one has the ball this morning.

Keene Little : 1/22/2007 9:39:32 AM

For a bullish start NQ lost it all right away and just closed its gap. Looking at a 30-min chart of NQ leaves me with the impression its only forming a bear flag since Friday's low. If it drops lower then I'd watch for 1790 which would be a 62% retracement of its January rally.

Jane Fox : 1/22/2007 9:32:39 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The U.S. leading economic indicators for December will be released on Tuesday at 10 a.m. Eastern, instead of Monday, the Conference Board announced Monday. The private research group said the delay was due to "database and technical issues on our computing systems." Economists surveyed by MarketWatch expect the LEI to rise 0.2% after a 0.1% increase in November.

Keene Little : 1/22/2007 9:24:06 AM

NQ has had the most bullish overnight session whereas YM the most bearish. Rotation back to techs before the day even begins? We'll soon find out.

Jane Fox : 1/22/2007 9:14:05 AM

ES and ER broke their respective PDHs overnight but just barely so I think we have a level of resistance that we can use intraday. Above this resistance is bullish and below not bullish. Notice I didn't say bearish, just not bullish. If the markets break their overnight lows then we can start talking bearish but not until then.

Of all the markets I see NQ and ES have the most bullish price patterns and would use these two for long positions until you see things change. Link

Jane Fox : 1/22/2007 9:01:48 AM

Dateline WSJ - Sun Microsystems Inc. and Intel Corp., two Silicon Valley powers that have frequently taken opposing sides in technology battles, appear ready to work together.

The companies have been negotiating an agreement under which Sun would buy Intel chips for use in server systems, according to people briefed about Sun's plans. A deal, which could be announced as soon as today, may include an endorsement by Intel of Sun's Solaris operating system, these people said.

Sun's use of Intel chips, while not unprecedented, would be a blow to Advanced Micro Devices Inc., which is now Sun's exclusive source for chips based on the popular x86 design used in most personal computers and servers. It also would be a sign of the renewed competitiveness of Intel's chips, which outsell those of AMD but whose performance levels had fallen behind that of AMD's products until recently.

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