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Keene Little : 1/24/2007 10:14:37 PM

Thursday's pivot tables: Link and Link

OI Technical Staff : 1/24/2007 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

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Marc Eckelberry : 1/24/2007 6:48:50 PM

Overnight signal: short YM 12694, stop 12719.

Marc Eckelberry : 1/24/2007 6:49:26 PM

The settled close changed on YM and is 12661. Should have held on. In any case, R1 is now at 12695, making the entry different on overnight.

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2007 6:11:43 PM

MBA's Weekly Mortgage Application Survey at this Link

Table with DJUSHB at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2007 5:49:43 PM

March Crude Oil (cl07h) settled up $0.33, or +0.60% at $55.37.

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2007 5:41:58 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2007 5:37:30 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 1/24/2007 5:20:47 PM

I am going to cancel the ES short signal, even though it might be very valid. Too crowded, just stick to the YM.

Marc Eckelberry : 1/24/2007 5:11:38 PM

These are suggestions, play around with them as I might not be around the monitor, but keep track overnight and do some re-entries especially at 8:30 AM. There should be some MSFT fear at some point and hopefully, this will give a cushion.

Marc Eckelberry : 1/24/2007 5:01:24 PM

No short signals for NQ.

Marc Eckelberry : 1/24/2007 5:06:20 PM

In that spirit, let's put in a YM short at 12701, stop 12721, GTC. (daily R1 entry 1 tick below and stop 11 ticks above monthly R2).

Marc Eckelberry : 1/24/2007 4:56:09 PM

Overnight often gets pops at precise points that can give a good entry with a cushion by the time the open comes.

Marc Eckelberry : 1/24/2007 4:51:12 PM

There is no bad news after hours, even though the economic docket is loaded. YM short is exited for -15, no need to lose sleep. Jeff had the right idea and put in a good trade.

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2007 4:39:42 PM

YM alert ... 12,670

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2007 4:25:42 PM

QQQQ went out at $44.30 ... ticking $44.40 extended.

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2007 4:24:12 PM

eBay (EBAY) ... Earnings Press Release Link

Consensus was for EPS of $0.28 on Revenue of $1.67B

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2007 4:21:41 PM

eBay (EBAY) $30.00 +4.82% .... Surging to $32.25 on headline numbers.

Keene Little : 1/24/2007 4:13:28 PM

Futures are holding steady so no fear or pre-positioning short after the cash close. That could mean at least a brief push higher tomorrow morning. I wouldn't count on it but that's the risk. We should be getting at least a pullback now.

If we don't get a pullback started tomorrow but instead see the market continue its rocket ride higher to the upper Fib targets (SPX 1451-1455, DOW 12727) then there will be little question in my mind that we're getting the blow-off top. That's a low-odds scenario in my mind but possible and that's the risk facing shorts here.

Marc Eckelberry : 1/24/2007 4:12:21 PM

I only want to find a swing short with the VIX sub 10 CLOSE. It marked a top in November (22) and in December (18).

Marc Eckelberry : 1/24/2007 4:10:10 PM

Back for a sec. YM stop at 12667 held, but the overnight session could run it. I would raise the stop to 12677 (short entry should have been 12657). If stopped , re-enter order at 12705, stop 12725. ES has risk to 1449, so if you would rather sit it out, take it off now for even.

Keene Little : 1/24/2007 4:01:03 PM

Golf clap for the Boyz--they held this up all the way into the close. SPX finally tagged its Fib target at 1439.74. This by no means says it will immediately turn around and head south tomorrow but that's the risk for the bulls at today's close.

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2007 4:00:01 PM

YM long exit alert 12,665

Marc Eckelberry : 1/24/2007 3:49:49 PM

Play it even safer and lower a YM short stop to 12667, risk only 10 point if your entry was 12557. If we get above 12668, they will shoot for 12710, your next entry if I am not around to give it. Have to go, be safe.

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2007 3:49:25 PM

YM long raise stop alert ... to 12,653

YM 12,660

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2007 3:48:12 PM

YM 12,661 ... gets the trade at WEEKLY R1.

Keene Little : 1/24/2007 3:44:37 PM

The DOW is also just shy of its first Fib target at 12621.40 (with its longer term Fib projection at 12626.10). As with SPX, its next higher Fib target is 100 points higher but this is the first place to try a short.

Keene Little : 1/24/2007 3:42:28 PM

ES did manage to finally tag its Fib target at 1445.75 but SPX is 20 cents shy of its target at 1439.74. Surely it can make it too.

Keene Little : 1/24/2007 3:39:48 PM

They're working hard to hold this up. If they manage to hold it up into the close I'll be curious to see what the futures do after 4:00. If they remain stable then we could see at least a brief continuation higher tomorrow morning. If futures take a nose dive then cash could follow out of the gates tomorrow.

Marc Eckelberry : 1/24/2007 3:38:45 PM

YM tags weekly R1 at 12660 on the nose. The VIX is frozen a tlows and it looks like they will not let up on shorts for now. Nevertheless, a YM short at 12660 looks decent. Stop should be right above monthly R1 at 12668. Worth a try, the DOW is the weakest today due to higher interest rates creeping in.

Keene Little : 1/24/2007 3:33:08 PM

Correction, MSFT earnings tomorrow. Sorry about that.

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2007 3:32:41 PM

YM Long Raise Stop Alert ... to 12,650

YM 12,657

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2007 3:31:10 PM

All-time High Alert! Dow Industrials (INDU) 12,615 ...

Keene Little : 1/24/2007 3:29:47 PM

What we don't know of course is how the market will react to Mr. Softee's earnings announcement after the bell.

Keene Little : 1/24/2007 3:26:14 PM

ES has tagged 1445.50 twice, a tick shy of its 1445.75 Fib projection for wave-C = 62% of wave-A. SPX target is 1439.74 and its high so far is 1439.18. It's certainly close enough to try the short side. It may not be until tomorrow before we get any kind of pullback though so consider the risk of an overnight hold if you want to try a short here vs. waiting until tomorrow mornng.

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2007 3:19:37 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 1/24/2007 3:18:26 PM

2006 opening day high for YM at 12652 is R as is triple top ES. VIX hits the pre-Thanksgiving low. Watch weekly R1 for ES at 1443.75.

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2007 3:11:04 PM

QQQQ $44.25 ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2007 3:09:32 PM

YM 12,654 ... gets a trade at DAILY R2.

Marc Eckelberry : 1/24/2007 3:07:12 PM

The VIX staying at 100% lows is supportive today. It's also right where we started selling off in December.

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2007 3:03:23 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2007 3:00:57 PM

APEX Silver (SIL) $14.41 +2.34% ... edges above the correlative WEEKLY R2/DAILY R2. (see yesterday's MM)

Keene Little : 1/24/2007 2:58:09 PM

The thing to be cautious about here, if trying the short side, is that an afternoon trend (up in this case) rarely gets reversed into the close. Having said that, if we're in a topping process we could see selling kick in as smart money starts distribution into the close.

Keene Little : 1/24/2007 2:55:02 PM

ES has gone a little parabolic on us and is due for at least a rest. When the last (steepest) trend line breaks it should be a good short from there (but could make a slightly higher high as it retests the broken trend line). Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2007 2:53:48 PM

YM long raise stop alert ... to 12,635

YM 12,640

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2007 2:47:54 PM

AMEX Gold Bugs ($HUI.X) 334.03 +1.27% ... 50% retracement of 05/10/06 high close to 06/13/06 low close.

Keene Little : 1/24/2007 2:43:04 PM

I was thinking the same thing Jane. Looks like they saved it for this week. This is the chart updated through last Friday. Big spike up in the last two weeks. Link

Jane Fox : 1/24/2007 2:40:32 PM

Keene this is all that M3 money coming into the market.

Keene Little : 1/24/2007 2:40:13 PM

For the DOW's A-B-C move up from the January low, the first upside Fib target is 12621. It's time to start thinking about testing the highs and get short. Just keep nibbling and stay disciplined with your stops. It shouldn't take too many tries and when it sticks it could be a good long term play. I'll be watching the form of a pullback for evidence that we put in a top or instead just a pullback in preparation for another high. But we're close enough now to start trying the short side.

Jane Fox : 1/24/2007 2:39:43 PM

Hopefully you were not caught short. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2007 2:37:36 PM

Schlumberger (SLB) $64.25 +0.99% ... get'n green.

Keene Little : 1/24/2007 2:37:13 PM

Looks like a patriotic rally, don't you think? YM is getting closer to testing its December high at 12668.

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2007 2:35:50 PM

IBM $97.26 +0.18% ... would be nice for a YM day trader if IBM could fill Thursday-Friday morning gap today.

Jane Fox : 1/24/2007 2:34:52 PM

TICKS +1000

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2007 2:34:46 PM

It either goes, or it doesn't above 12,640.

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2007 2:34:12 PM

YM Long raise stop alert ... to break even.

YM 12,635

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2007 2:31:10 PM

YM 12,639 ... again ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2007 2:25:40 PM

Broadcom Upped To "Buy" From "Neutral" at DA Davidson

BRCM $30.64 +4.00% ...

Marc Eckelberry : 1/24/2007 2:11:30 PM

SPX comes within a point of November 2000 high and falls back in the wedge.

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2007 2:09:49 PM

TRIN 0.85 ... session lows

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2007 2:08:49 PM

IBM $97.11 +0.03% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2007 2:07:48 PM

Nobody's "flinched" in the YM 12,630 at this point.

Keene Little : 1/24/2007 1:59:48 PM

And then there's ES 1445.75 which is where wave-C = 62% of wave-A in the move up from the January low. That's the first level where we could find a top. It becomes more risky for the bulls now since a hard failure could occur at any time (especially with the potentially bearish patterns I see for NDX and RUT).

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2007 1:59:04 PM

YM 12,635 ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2007 1:58:40 PM

SPX 1,436.34 +0.58% ... jumps to highs of day ... clears WEEKLY R1. should bring in some retail short covering.

Keene Little : 1/24/2007 1:57:41 PM

ES 1443-1444 still has the potential to be the high for the day so watch for a potential setup there for a scalp short play.

Jane Fox : 1/24/2007 1:51:01 PM

If you are trading the Russell you are doing OK long but if not then today has been quite frustrating so far.

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2007 1:42:38 PM

YM 12,627

Keene Little : 1/24/2007 1:33:07 PM

NDX and the RUT still have me wondering about what's going to happen next with those two. After a clear 5-wave impulsive decine from its January high, the RUT could be in the tail end of its corrective bounce. After last Friday's low we've got a potential a-b-c bounce where the 2nd leg up would achieve 162% of the 1st leg up at 792.46. The RUT is currently printing 791.33. Link

NDX is not quite as clear in its decline from the January high but it too is sporting what could be an a-b-c bounce off its Monday morning low. The 2nd leg up for that one is 162% of the 1st leg up at 1801.91 which was hit this morning. If that's all there is for both then we'll see new lows next. This makes it difficult to believe the DOW and SPX will rally to new highs (perhaps after a pullback into tomorrow) so the picture is by no means clear here. Link

Jane Fox : 1/24/2007 1:29:31 PM

TICKS +800

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2007 1:22:34 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Jane Fox : 1/24/2007 1:21:13 PM

ER leads the pack to a new daily high.

Jane Fox : 1/24/2007 1:09:52 PM

... and you know how I read a MACD falling while price moves sideways. HMMM. Maybe it is lucky I didn't but those SPX puts.

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2007 1:09:00 PM

USO $45.80 +0.32% ... probes WEEKLY R2.

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2007 1:08:00 PM

YM slipping below its WEEKLY Pivot ... 12,615

Jane Fox : 1/24/2007 1:07:49 PM

This is hard for a permabear to "bear" but ES is building a very nice bullish triangle. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2007 1:02:08 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 1/24/2007 1:02:07 PM

The VIX is not making new daily lows but it is hovering around daily lows so I think our next move will be higher.

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2007 12:58:35 PM

There was a rather large 2 million share volume spike in IBM yesterday from $96.95-$97.09 and may be a point of influence near-term.

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2007 12:55:09 PM

BIX.X 400.90 (unch) ... sloppy on either side of its WEEKLY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2007 12:54:24 PM

SPX 1,434.29 +0.44% ... has been bumping up against its WEEKLY R1 this morning.

Jane Fox : 1/24/2007 12:53:26 PM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The New York Stock Exchange said Wednesday that orders for stocks trading under the hybrid system can automatically be filled outside of the NYSE if the orders cannot be matched at the Big Board.

Automatic routing, which is intended to help investors find the best price in all markets, is the third phase in the NYSE's move to hybrid electronic and manual trading. The NYSE said that 20% of share volume is handled through trading-floor brokers and specialists using new electronic tools.

In the next stage, the NYSE plans "immediate or cancel" and "intermarket sweep orders" that will not route to other markets. The exchange is a subsidiary of NYSE Group (NYX) .

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2007 12:53:24 PM

YM 12,621

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2007 12:52:48 PM

IBM $97.24 +0.16% ... WEEKLY Pivot $97.20 ... only real "big tech" in YM.

Jane Fox : 1/24/2007 12:51:04 PM

The VIX not making new daily lows is why we are in chop. New daily highs will not be sustained until the VIX makes new daily lows. THe best trade right now is no trade. Sorry but that is how I see it. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2007 12:50:12 PM

Barrick Gold Target Cut On Potential "value Trap:"

DJ - While RBC Capital Markets expects strong results for Barrick Gold Corp.'s (ABX) fourth quarter, analyst Stephen Walker cautioned that expected cost escalation and no production growth over the medium term could create a potential "value trap."

In a research report Wednesday, Walker lowered his target on the company to $36.00 from $43.00.

He cited a lag in post-merger share performance, noting that Barrick's shares have underperformed relative to its peers in the 12 months following its merger with Homestake Mining and again following its acquisition of Placer Dome.

He also noted that Barrick's leverage to the gold price is declining, prompting investors to look to smaller cap gold companies and various gold ETF products to gain exposure to the gold price.

He said he believes the next major upside catalyst for Barrick shares will be the production, earnings and cash flow growth generated in 2010 and 2011 from the start-up of the Pascua Lama, Donlin Creek and Pueblo Viejo projects.

Walker said he expects fourth-quarter earnings of 51 cents a share and cash flow of 67 cents, driven by increased gold and copper production.

He maintained his rating at sector perform, average risk.

ABX $29.14 -0.68% ...

Jane Fox : 1/24/2007 12:41:06 PM

In other words we had bullish price patterns.

Jane Fox : 1/24/2007 12:40:24 PM

Here is an updated look at my last post. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2007 12:40:13 PM

YM 12,629 ... Day trader's 5-minute interval chart at this Link

Jane Fox : 1/24/2007 12:39:32 PM

I meant to post this a while ago. Link

Keene Little : 1/24/2007 12:39:54 PM

Using the SPX 60-min chart, you can see that price has stalled near the intersection of the trend line along the highs of December and January and the broken uptrend line from January's low (light red line on the chart). Link

If SPX were to rally up to its upper Fib target of 1451.70, notice that it crosses the top of a parallel up-channel (for price action since January's low) on January 30th. The broken uptrend line (light red) intersects that level on the same date. Makes one want to go hmm...

The other interesting thing about the January 30th date is that it would be 2 weeks after MER's earnings and market top (so far). This would follow the exact same pattern between MER and the broader market back in April following its earnings. This is of course all conjecture at this point but it does make for a very interesting scenario. Speaking of MER, it's had a nice recovery off its low and could be headed to a new high as well.

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2007 12:31:11 PM

YM Long entry alert ... go long here at 12,625 , stop 12,610 , target 12,670.

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2007 12:29:39 PM

Wal-Mart (WMT) $48.58 +1.58% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2007 12:23:12 PM

US Senate Rejects Minimum Wage Bill Lacking Cuts

Keene Little : 1/24/2007 12:18:03 PM

I'm still not sure how wave-C of the A-B-C move up from January's low will play out. It could head up in a steep parallel channel as it's currently in or we could get a deeper pullback (breaking down from this channel) before heading higher again, forming an ascending wedge in the process. Link

Short term resistance might be at the shallow downtrend line from the December high, currently at 1442.50(although that may not have any influence considering SPX has already pushed higher than December's high). ES 1442.50 is also at the top of its up-channel for this week. The 30 and 60-min charts look they could roll back over soon if not now.

For ultimate upside targets I show the two Fib projections for the c-wave at 1445.75 and then 1457.50. For SPX these Fib projections are 1439.74 and 1451.7. Interestingly I have been suggesting for weeks now that we could see SPX top out in the 1437-1439 area or if it presses higher then the 1451-1455 area. These are based on longer term pattern projections and here we are in the final stretch and the short term pattern is pointing to the same target areas.

Marc Eckelberry : 1/24/2007 12:04:36 PM

And wishy washy Cramer has sure done some damage. Buy techs he said two weeks ago, then he says sell them on Monday, now he says buy some... You need to have a plan that is consistent with longer term logic and reasoning. It was the hardest thing in the world to see a bear market in March of 2000. But those who follow interest rates and company guidance saw it coming. Everyone was lowering guidance even though they showed record earnings that 1st quarter of 2000. Did you listen? Or did you just keep buying like nothing happened?

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2007 12:02:13 PM

Conoco: Reserves Down In Caspian, North Sea, Alaska Ops

DJ- A preliminary downgrade in ConocoPhillips's (COP) 2006 reserves amounted to 260 million barrels of oil equivalent, Chief Executive Jim Mulva said Wednesday.

About 65% of the revisions were due to a new technical assessment of the company's reserves in the Kashagan oilfield in the Caspian region, as well as lower facility life expectancy in some North Sea fields, the executive said in a conference call.

"We've taken a more conservative view of reserves in Kashagan, well by well. But we expect with more drilling to put reserves back on," Mulva said.

Another 25% of the revisions came from well performance and contract- extension issues in Alaska and the company's exit from Dubai, Mulva said.

In early January, Houston-based ConocoPhillips released reserve numbers that showed little growth from its legacy projects, disappointing analysts. Mulva said that the company expects reserve replacement to continue being "somewhat uneven" on an annual basis, due to the complexity of major development projects and challenges in accessing resources.

Keene Little : 1/24/2007 11:59:23 AM

Marc, you're not trying to bring rationality to this market are you? (wink)

Marc Eckelberry : 1/24/2007 11:59:08 AM

The YHOO and TXN rallies are just as absurd as the AAPL rally last week. Over a yet to be released cell phone (that is not even 3G and can't change batteries) and now Yahoo over an unproven ad gimmick without even getting more traffic in the first place and lowering guidance. Same with TXN. This is the same silly reverse mindset we see at bottoms.

Marc Eckelberry : 1/24/2007 11:55:25 AM

You don't build bull markets on lowered guidance from key sectors. You end bull markets on them and usually just like this, with new highs and shorts throwing in the towel.

Marc Eckelberry : 1/24/2007 11:53:57 AM

Everyone has forgotten the lower guidance from big tech, but It will could back to haunt the bulls.

Marc Eckelberry : 1/24/2007 11:52:24 AM

Yes, indeed.

Keene Little : 1/24/2007 11:45:33 AM

Marc, that massive divergence has been there since October. This puppy is going to be hurting soon.

Marc Eckelberry : 1/24/2007 11:44:04 AM

Cash symbol is king when it comes to this, since ES had lots more premium back in December. So forget ES for now and look at the SPX chart.

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2007 11:43:40 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 1/24/2007 11:38:46 AM

Ok, went through. See that whopper of a wedge and RSI negative div.

Marc Eckelberry : 1/24/2007 11:37:32 AM

I'm trying that SPX chart again, did not post earlier: Link

Keene Little : 1/24/2007 11:37:09 AM

Monday's low is definitely the critical level now for the bulls. Any drop below ES 1426 would have me turning long term bearish but not yet.

Keene Little : 1/24/2007 11:35:59 AM

The leg up today is either the 3rd wave of the final 5th wave or part of the 3rd wave. That means we'll be due a pullback and then another final push higher. We're close but we're not there yet.

Keene Little : 1/24/2007 11:33:57 AM

ES 1443 will likely be resistance as it's the high from last Wednesday and the top of a parallel up-channel for price action since Monday. Two equal legs up from Monday's low will get it near last Monday's high just above 1444 so a scalp short could set up in the 1443-1444 area.

Marc Eckelberry : 1/24/2007 11:33:34 AM

Everyone is waiting for ES 1450. It might happen, it might not. Just scalp your trades, short or long, until one sticks.

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2007 11:33:07 AM

Jan/Feb/March Fed Fund futures all 94.75 ... (100 - 94.75) = 5.25%

Marc Eckelberry : 1/24/2007 11:32:06 AM

I know it sounds crazy (and maybe I am), but unless SPX gets above that massive wedge resistance from a 6 month rally with the VIX at 10 and techs lagging on a relative basis, frankly, the trade is short, not long.

Marc Eckelberry : 1/24/2007 11:30:35 AM

When ES gets down to 1439.25, it better not falter or we just witnessed a blow off top.

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2007 11:30:19 AM

13-week Treasury Bill Yield ($IRX.X) 5.00% ... Current Fed Funds Target at 5.25%

Marc Eckelberry : 1/24/2007 11:27:48 AM

And a pretty massive bearish divergence, I might add. With the VIX at 10 and right against that SPX wedge, I would not chase an ES long here. But that's me. In fact, I would even short it if it stays below 1443.

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2007 11:27:38 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 1/24/2007 11:19:37 AM

SPX is bumping up against stiff wedge resistance. This is no time to be long ES unless that breaks to the upside(1436). Link

Marc Eckelberry : 1/24/2007 11:10:33 AM

Rates keep climbing.

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2007 11:09:32 AM

VIX.X 10.03 ... undercuts WEEKLY S1.

Marc Eckelberry : 1/24/2007 11:08:54 AM

The big short squeeze is on.

Jane Fox : 1/24/2007 11:06:54 AM

This is no time to be short.

Jane Fox : 1/24/2007 11:06:42 AM

The TRIN was telling us that the bears were getting stronger and the market did take a dip. The TRIn has now retreated back to 1.13 and the bulls have taken control once again.

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2007 11:04:18 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2007 11:01:32 AM

VXN.X 16.75 -3.40% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2007 10:59:48 AM

Swing trade put close out alert ... for the three (3) QQQQ Feb $43 Puts (QQQ-NQ) at the bid of $0.30.

QQQQ $44.15 +1.30% ...

Jane Fox : 1/24/2007 10:57:34 AM

DAVOS, Switzerland (MarketWatch) -- The world economy is less beholden to the U.S. as an engine of growth, but a "hard landing" in America could still spell trouble for global prospects, according to a panel of high-profile international economists.

In a discussion that drew a standing-room crowd as the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum got fully under way Wednesday, American International Group Vice Chairman Jacob A. Frenkel argued that 2006 will go down as the "year of things that did not happen," with the global economy largely riding out a surge in energy prices and a housing-related slowdown in U.S. growth.

Meanwhile, China's efforts to trim its reliance on export-led growth and reforms by other emerging economies could have positive long-term effects, said Laura D. Tyson, professor of economics at the University of California, Berkeley. She noted that emerging economies for the first time accounted for more than 50% of the global economy.

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2007 10:56:10 AM

EIA: SPR's Weekly Crude Oil Stockpiles unchanged at 688.6 million barrels.

Keene Little : 1/24/2007 10:53:42 AM

ES's uptrend line from yesterday's low is near 1437 now so hopefully that will hold any pullback. In the meantime if ES can successfully climb above 1439 and hold then we should see it get up to the next resistance level near 1442.

Marc Eckelberry : 1/24/2007 10:43:54 AM

If QM can't hold 54.20, it will test 53.475 soon.

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2007 10:41:50 AM

EIA: Weekly Percent Utilization of Ref. Op. Capacity comes in at 87.38%, down from prior week's 87.92%.

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2007 10:40:11 AM

EIA: Weekly Refinery Operable Capacity Unchanged at 17,397,000 BPD.

Jane Fox : 1/24/2007 10:40:10 AM

Bulls should be taking note of the TRIN at 1.33 and above its PDH.

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2007 10:39:16 AM

EIA: Weekly Gross Inputs Into Refiners down 400,000 BPD.

Jane Fox : 1/24/2007 10:37:35 AM

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- The Energy Department said distillates supplies rose for a sixth week in a row, up 700,000 barrels to 142.6 million for the week ended Jan. 19. Crude supplies rose 700,000 barrels to 322.2 million, up a second week. Motor gasoline stocks climbed for a sixth week, up 4 million barrels to total 220.8 million barrels. Following the news, March crude dropped 64 cents to $54.40 a barrel. February reformulated gasoline fell 2.23 cents to $1.425 a gallon and February heating oil traded at $1.56 a gallon, down 1.63 cents.

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2007 10:36:52 AM

EIA: Weekly Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel Stockpiles up 17,000 barrels.

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2007 10:36:19 AM

EIA: Weekly ULS Diesel Stockpiles up 2.5 million barrels.

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2007 10:35:29 AM

EIA: Weekly Total Distillate Stockpiles up 750,000 barrels.

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2007 10:34:58 AM

EIA: Weekly Gasoline Stockpiles up 4 million barrels.

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2007 10:34:30 AM

EIA: Weekly Crude Oil Stockpiles up 789,000 barrels.

Keene Little : 1/24/2007 10:34:08 AM

OK, back up and running normally. Now let's see if this market can act normal. YM looks lieast bullish at the moment but its pullback this morning certainly looks corrective and suggests it will resolve higher.

Jane Fox : 1/24/2007 10:32:20 AM

* Crude supply up 700,000 brls last week: Energy Dept.
* Distillate supply up 700,000 brls: Energy Dept.
* Gasoline supply up 4 mln brls: Energy Dept.
* March crude falls 54 cents to $54.50/brl in NY

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2007 10:30:03 AM

Schlumberger (SLB) $63.14 -0.75% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2007 10:29:41 AM

US Oil Fund (USO) $45.50 -0.32% ... EIA Weekly Inventory due out any minute now.

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2007 10:26:39 AM


DJ- Shares jump 5% as drug services provider posts earnings of $122.2 million, or 63c a share, as total revenue rises 14% to $16.73 billion. Analysts expected earnings of 56c a share on revenue of $16.93 billion.

ABC $50.84 +5.76% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2007 10:25:21 AM


DJ- Railroad company's 4Q net income rises to $385 million, or 95c, one cent shy of analysts' expectations, from $362 million, or 87c, a year earlier. Revenue increases 2.7% to $2.32 billion.

NSC $51.37 -4.39% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2007 10:24:11 AM


DJ- Defense contractor's net income rises less than 1% to $408 million, or $1.01 a share. Excluding charge, it earns $1.13 a share. Sales increase 13% to $6.51 billion. Analysts expected EPS of $1.14.

GD $78.80 -2.58% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2007 10:23:14 AM


DJ- Shares rise 10% after maker of fiber-optic equipment and liquid-crystal-display glass posts net income of $646 million, or 41c a share. Excluding items, it earns 31c a share. Revenue jumps 14% to $1.37 billion. Analysts expected EPS of 28c.

GLW $20.66 +9.66% ...

Jane Fox : 1/24/2007 10:18:34 AM

TICKS +1000

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2007 10:16:08 AM


DJ- Pharmaceutical firm posts loss of $476.2 million, or 31c a share, down from year-ago profit of $976.4 million, on purchase of Kos. Sales rise 3% to $6.22 billion on the continued surge of its blockbuster drug Humira.

ABT $53.38 (unch) ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2007 10:14:58 AM


DJ- Oil company reports 4Q earnings of $3.2 billion, or $1.91 a share, reflecting a reduction of 17c a share related to previously disclosed impairments. Revenue falls 19% to $41.5 billion. Analysts expected profit of $1.95 a share.

COP $65.19 +0.33% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2007 10:14:04 AM


DJ- Fast-food chain earns $1.24 billion, or $1 a share, by same-store sales growth and gains from the sale of Chipotle Mexican Grill. McDonald's profit from continuing operations is 61c a share, matching expectations.

MCD $44.28 -1.27% ...

Marc Eckelberry : 1/24/2007 10:08:00 AM

The VIX between 10.20 and 10.25 has a recent pattern of attracting SPX sellers. This is an eerie reminder of the January 1994 10% correction set up after 2 sub 10 closes in December 1993. It is virtually identical.

Jeff Bailey : 1/24/2007 10:01:51 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Keene Little : 1/24/2007 10:00:20 AM

Still working on my connectivity problems so I'm limping along here. I'd like to see ES and YM hold above the uptrend line from yesterday's lows. As long as they hold then we should continue to march higher. The important low is Monday's and be aware that we could see some wild gyrations, including a deeper pullback towards ES 1430 and not have it mean anything bearish. But hopefully they can keep this pushing higher towards our final upside target.

Jane Fox : 1/24/2007 9:52:00 AM

TRIn now at 1.24 and has now broken its PDH so the bulls should start to worry and start to bail on long positions.

Jane Fox : 1/24/2007 9:51:13 AM

The only fly in the proverbial bullish ointment is the TRIN is climbing but at 1.19 I wouldn't worry too much about. Much higher and then the bulls should start to worry.

Jane Fox : 1/24/2007 9:46:03 AM

Bulls have grabbed the ball and are running with it. Link

Jane Fox : 1/24/2007 9:41:22 AM

TICKS +800

Jane Fox : 1/24/2007 9:41:12 AM

The bad TICKS on the VIX chart have been fixed. Link

Jane Fox : 1/24/2007 9:39:40 AM

Dow industrials advancers outnumber decliners 23 to 7

Jane Fox : 1/24/2007 9:39:26 AM

* NYSE advancers outnumber decliners 13 to 11
* Nasdaq advancers outnumber decliners 15 to 8

Jane Fox : 1/24/2007 9:38:28 AM

Look at how the PDHs are resistance this morning. Link

Jane Fox : 1/24/2007 9:37:16 AM

AD line is a neutral +161 and Ad volume barely above 0. No one had the ball this morning.

Jane Fox : 1/24/2007 9:24:14 AM

Take a look at the enormously bullish day the AD line and volume had yesterday Link and now look at what the markets did. Only ER was able to recover Monday's decline Link

Keene Little : 1/24/2007 9:23:50 AM

The techs are up big this morning and it looks like we'll start the morning on the bullish side. Bonds are neutral. I'm battling some connnectivity issues so will be distracted until I can get them solved. Dial-up is soooo slow anymore. Be back in a bit.

Jane Fox : 1/24/2007 9:16:51 AM

Overnight ES and YM hovered around their respective PDHs suggesting higher highs intraday. Link

Jane Fox : 1/24/2007 9:06:39 AM

Dateline WSJ - For some traders left working on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange, it appears the Big Board has dimmed the lights.

The exchange, a unit of NYSE Group Inc., is scheduled to finish today its long push to have its 3,618 securities traded almost exclusively electronically, a move that is translating into speedy service for investors. But for the employees who work on the NYSE's iconic trading floor it means fewer jobs and the biggest change to the way the Big Board has traded stocks in its 214-year history.

Big brokerage firms like Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. and J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. have let go some floor brokers in recent weeks, between five and 10 people each. Merrill Lynch & Co. has discussed with its brokers the possibility of transferring off the exchange.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc.'s Spear, Leeds & Kellogg trading unit, one of the NYSE's elite "specialist firms" that match buyers and sellers on the floor, is expected to announce layoffs of at least 10 staffers this week, according to a person familiar with the matter. Van der Moolen Holding NV, the Dutch company that owns a specialist firm on the NYSE, said yesterday it cut 30% of its U.S. staff, or about 50 people.

Jane Fox : 1/24/2007 9:04:31 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures traded slightly lower early Wednesday, as traders locked in some of the prior-session gains and the dollar regained some ground against major currencies.

Gold for February delivery was last trading down $2.2 at $643.7 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

On Tuesday, the contract closed at its highest level since Dec. 5, bolstered by rising oil prices and a declining dollar.

This morning, however, the dollar is displaying signs of recovery following its precipitous drop to a 14-year low against the British pound and two-week low versus the euro on Tuesday.

A rising dollar typically exerts downward pressure on gold.

"Gold's next target is the band of resistance, which lies between $648-56, but with the dollar running into pressure and oil prices stabilizing above $50/barrel, the outlook for gold remains positive," said James Moore of TheBullionDesk.com.

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