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Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2007 2:34:28 AM

German Retail Sales (m/m) +2.4% vs. -0.7% Previous. Forecasted +1.2%.

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2007 2:32:48 AM

Japan Housing Starts (y/y) +10.2% vs. +4.0% Previous. Forecasted +9.0%.

Keene Little : 1/31/2007 12:48:12 AM

At the end of the day on Tuesday I showed a setup for the RUT and SPX that calls for an immediate decline on Wednesday (which could be followed by a bounce to a lower high into FOMC). An alternative EW pattern calls for additional upside tomorrow. This looks especially plausible for the DOW which looks like it has done a sideways consolidation after the initial bounce off last Friday's low. This gives it the appearance that we're going to see another leg up to perhaps the 12575 area.

SPX could rally up to its broken uptrend line from January 8th which will be near 1433 by Wednesday afternoon (ES 1439). It would still look like a setup for a continuation of the decline post-FOMC but it would obviously mean a decline from a little higher than Tuesday's close. Link

An early rally would spoil the bearish wave pattern for the RUT (with a rally above 799.30) and that would raise the likelihood that we're going to see a choppy rally for another few weeks before finding a market top (as the bears groan in unison). One leg at a time until that possibility becomes more apparent, but it means don't get married to either side yet.

Keene Little : 1/31/2007 12:34:27 AM

Wednesday's pivot tables: Link and Link

OI Technical Staff : 1/30/2007 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Keene Little : 1/30/2007 9:40:58 PM

Wednesday's pivot tables: Link and Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2007 9:24:10 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2007 5:03:44 PM

March Crude Oil futures (cl07h) settled up $2.96, or +5.48% at $56.97.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2007 5:02:29 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Keene Little : 1/30/2007 4:16:04 PM

Looking at the SPX 15-min chart the setup is there for a decline out of the gate tomorrow morning. So far it looks like a nice 3-wave A-B-C bounce off Friday's low which should be a 2nd wave correction to a 1st wave decline last week. We've got equality between the A and C-waves and a 50% retracement of last week's decline. If the count is correct then we're due a strong 3rd wave decline next. Link

Thinking about FOMC/end of month, we could see a drop tomorrow morning and then a bounce to a lower high. That would then set us up for a strong 3rd of a 3rd wave down post-FOMC. A move like that would say we've got too many lining up on the bullish side and could get taken by surprise post-FOMC. This is speculation at this time but the setup is there and now we'll see what happens tomorrow morning.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2007 4:06:15 PM

If still day trade long YM, I'd let it go 12,559

Keene Little : 1/30/2007 3:59:15 PM

This is an ideal spot to sell a bear call spread or buy a bear put spread on the RUT. If it rallies above 799.30 just jump back out of the spread. Can't ask for a much better setup with miniscule risk.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2007 3:57:06 PM

Caterpillar (CAT) $62.96 +1.88% Link ... pretty good bounce after test of bullish support trend.

Keene Little : 1/30/2007 3:54:03 PM

The RUT is hanging near its high and is going to make it a nail biter for anyone who shorted ER at that 802.50 line of resistance. For the EW pattern and what I believe is an A-B-C bounce off the low on January 19th, this is what it looks like on this 30-min chart of the RUT. Wave-C = wave-A at 797.81, tagged this afternoon. Wave-C is forming an ascending wedge with bearish divergences (typical for a c-wave). The pattern is set up for a decline from here and now all it has to do is do it! Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2007 3:52:22 PM

YM 12,556

Keene Little : 1/30/2007 3:37:37 PM

It looks like they're doing just enough buying to keep the bears at bay. They won't let it drop but nor will it really rally. Just kind of chopping its way higher which is typically bearish. We may have to wait for tomorrow afternoon before we see which way this is going to go (leaning towards a breakdown but could be from a slightly higher level).

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2007 3:19:17 PM

Union Pacific To Repurchase Up To 20M Shares By End Of 2009; Increases Dividend

DJ- Union Pacific Corp. (UNP) on Tuesday said its board has voted to authorize buying back of up to 20 million shares by the end of 2009.

The board has also increased the quarterly dividend 17% to 35 cents. The transportation company said the dividend is payable April 2 to shareholders as of Feb. 28.

Keene Little : 1/30/2007 3:14:26 PM

While ER is pushing up to its broken uptrend line it's also forming a potential ascending wedge for price action since Friday's low, with the bearish divergences to support the bearish interpretation of this pattern. I would not want to be long here.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2007 3:13:24 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 1/30/2007 3:12:27 PM

Remember the key level for the RUT is 799.30--a rally above that level and the bearish count is busted.

Keene Little : 1/30/2007 3:11:23 PM

I don't need no stinkin' stops! (If I believed that I wouldn't be around to trade for very long). Watch ER 802.50 where it will test a broken uptrend line that held back the bounce on January 25th.

Jane Fox : 1/30/2007 3:09:25 PM

Keene hopefully you have a stop :)

Keene Little : 1/30/2007 3:08:18 PM

Short. :-)

Jane Fox : 1/30/2007 3:07:08 PM

Would you be long or short here? Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2007 3:02:18 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2007 2:57:53 PM

AT&T (T) $37.06 +1.53% ... ditto.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2007 2:57:26 PM

North American Telecom Index (XTC.X) 952.75 +1.41% ... threatens to close a 52-week high.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2007 2:49:47 PM

Walgreen (WAG) $45.40 (unch) ... back to WEEKLY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2007 2:40:06 PM

Thumbs Up for Bernanke on First Year

AP Story Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2007 2:28:39 PM

Schlumberger (SLB) $63.27 +2.03% ... sticks its head back above 200-day SMA ($63.17). Volume light at 6.8 million shares.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2007 2:26:21 PM

S&P Reports High Rtgs Stability For 2006 North American CMBS

DJ- North American commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) completed a very strong year in 2006, continuing a trend of positive credit performance. There were 889 upgrades and 116 downgrades, resulting in a 7.7 to 1 upgrade-to-downgrade ratio, according to a recent report by Standard & Poor's Ratings Services.

"Real estate fundamentals continued to be positive as well in 2006, benefiting from increased tenant demand and constrained supply," said credit analyst Eric Thompson, a director in Standard & Poor's CMBS Surveillance group. "With ample liquidity in the commercial real estate sector, the environment was conducive to yet another year of solid CMBS credit performance."

The strong CMBS credit performance resulted from low delinquency levels that helped contain downgrades, while loan paydowns and defeasances fueled upgrades. "Against this backdrop, all rated classes had very stable transition ratios, at both ends of the credit spectrum," said credit analyst Larry Kay, a director in Standard & Poor's CMBS Surveillance group. For the full year 2006, the 'AAA' and 'B' rating categories posted stability ratios of 100.0% and 96.6%, respectively, both improvements over 2005. Rating stability is defined as a rating that was unchanged or raised.

"The stability ratio for the 'B' rating category in 2006 was notable, given its speculative-grade characteristics," said Mr. Thompson. "An active market for financings and purchases helped keep loss severities low, tempering both the number and severity of downgrades on lower-rated classes."

There were also fewer defaults in 2006, declining to 14 from 22 in 2005. Nine of the defaults were due to interest shortfalls, and five attributed to principal losses. Industrial loans had the highest increase in default contributions among the property types in 2006 and were the only asset class to experience an increase in delinquencies. "The contraction in the automotive and manufacturing industries contributed to the increase in industrial defaults and delinquencies," said Mr. Kay.

"We expect the number of defaults and downgrades to be comparable with current levels, as many of the same positive forces that drove strong credit performance in 2006 are expected to carry over into 2007," said Mr. Kay.

The commentary article, "North American CMBS Ratings Achieve High Levels Of Stability In 2006," published Jan. 29, 2007, is available on RatingsDirect, the real-time Web-based source for Standard & Poor's credit ratings, research, and risk analysis.

Keene Little : 1/30/2007 2:26:09 PM

The market is just floundering around and not giving us a lot of clues at the moment. We could be seeing the market being held up for various reasons (FOMC, end of month, wanting a positive January) which is fighting the urge by some to sell and take profits.

This morning's bounce finished a potential A-B-C bounce off Friday's low and that sets us up for a continuation lower after last week's decline. The question here is whether or not the bounce will make it higher before rolling back over, and that's the risk for shorts currently. I'd rather be short but recognize it could take a couple of attempts to find the top of the bounce. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2007 2:24:02 PM

NYSE Group (NYX.X) $99.83 -0.26% ... Yepper... WEEKLY Pivot $99.79.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2007 2:23:14 PM

Tokyo Stock Exchange CEO: Very Close To Pact With NYSE

DJ- The Tokyo Stock Exchange is "very close" to an agreement on an alliance with the New York Stock Exchange, the TSE's chief executive said Tuesday.

Taizo Nishimuro, the Tokyo exchange's CEO, said that an agreement may be announced Wednesday. He said the two markets may cooperate on areas such as new products, listings and systems.

Nishimuro spoke Tuesday at the Japan Society in New York, where he was joined by John Thain, CEO of NYSE Group Inc. (NYX), the Big Board's parent.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2007 2:21:54 PM

YM 12,540 ... brutal isn't it?

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2007 2:20:03 PM

Berkshire Hathaway Class A (BRK.A) 108,450 +0.23% ... set to test correlative 21-day and 50-day SMA (108,700)

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2007 2:09:57 PM

YM 12,536 ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2007 2:03:37 PM

EPA Scientists To Propose Tougher US Smog Rules, Less Ethanol

DJ- Federal scientists want to tighten smog standards, a step that would allow tens of millions of Americans to breathe easier - but also would clash with President George W. Bush's plan to wean Americans away from gasoline and to use more ethanol.

Despite Bush's goal, the EPA scientists will recommend allowing less smog-causing ethanol. The smog is produced mainly when tailpipe and smokestack pollutants react with summer heat, the official said.

More than half the nation, or nearly 160 million people, breathe illegal levels of smog. They live mostly in and around major cities in California and the East.

Scientists with the Environmental Protection Agency are due to recommend by Wednesday a range of options for healthier air. Last year, EPA identified hundreds of the nation's most populated counties that were polluting the air with too much smog, and ordered them to clean it up.

What the scientists will recommend has stirred "a great deal of controversy" within EPA and could complicate Bush's push for more ethanol use, said a senior government official speaking on condition of anonymity because the announcement had not yet been made.

In his State of the Union speech, Bush called on Americans to reduce projected gasoline consumption by 20% over 10 years by substituting alternative fuels, mainly smog-causing ethanol, in its place.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2007 2:01:46 PM

S&P:Motorola Rtgs,Otlk Unaffected By Icahn Hldg

DJ- Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said today that the confirmation by Motorola Inc. (A-/Stable/A-1) of its received of notice that Carl Icahn-related entities beneficially own 1.4% of Motorola's shares, and that Mr. Icahn has been nominated to a seat on Motorola's board at the 2007 shareholders' meeting, will not affect its ratings or outlook on the company. All 13 of Motorola's board seats will be up for re-election at the meeting, which has not yet been scheduled. Motorola is reviewing the notice of nomination, but has made no other statements concerning the matter, and there has not yet been any other disclosure concerning Mr. Icahn's intentions. Mr. Icahn has called for strategic changes at some of the other companies where he has invested.

Motorola's stock price stands at 25% below the 52-week high, reflecting a sharp decline in profitability in the December quarter because of phone prices. Ratings on the company continue to reflect the company's strong financial profile and expectations that profitability will recover in coming quarters as the company balances its market-share initiatives with appropriate profitability metrics. We will continue to monitor the situation, and will comment as appropriate when additional information becomes available.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2007 1:58:58 PM

S&P Revises Xerox Outlook To Positive

DJ- Standard & Poor's Ratings Services today said it revised its rating outlook on Stamford, Conn.-based Xerox Corp. to positive from stable. Ratings on the company, including the 'BB+' long-term and 'B-1' short-term corporate credit ratings, were affirmed.

"The outlook revision reflects an improved leverage profile and a strengthening revenue mix," explained Standard & Poor's credit analyst Molly Toll-Reed. "The ratings reflect mature and highly competitive industry conditions and a short, recent record of total revenue growth." These factors are partially offset by the company's good position in its core document management business, stable nonfinancing operating profitability, and moderate leverage.

Xerox reported total revenues of $4.4 billion in the fourth quarter ended Dec. 31, 2006, up 3% from the prior-year period. Although equipment sales were down 1% in the quarter (including a 3% positive currency effect), post-sale revenues grew 6% from the prior-year period (including the positive currency effect).

Demonstrating sustainable long-term revenue growth is the primary challenge for Xerox. Ongoing competitive pricing pressures have dampened total equipment sales growth. Although revenues from color equipment and color after-market sales continue to increase as a percentage of total revenues (37% at year-end 2006 versus 34% at year-end 2005), growth in color equipment revenues in 2006 has been offset by pricing pressure in the black & white equipment revenue base. However, growth in total post-sale revenues turned positive in 2006, and continued to strengthen during the year. Strong growth in the installed equipment base of key products (such as color production presses and multifunction devices), along with the moderating impact of declining light lens revenues, is expected to drive continued growth in post-sales revenues, which represent more than 70% of total revenues.

XRX $17.11 +0.52% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2007 1:52:56 PM

PetroChina (PTR) $124.44 +2.52% ... back for another look at its WEEKLY Pivot ($124.77)

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2007 1:51:16 PM

YM 12,555 ... still couldn't do much with a bull stop.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2007 1:50:35 PM

Still building to the "bull side" intra-day. Surprised buyer let YM slip below DAILY Pivot there after 01:00 with that type of a/d line.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2007 1:49:40 PM

NYSE a/d 2,094/1,112

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2007 1:48:42 PM

YM 12,552

Jane Fox : 1/30/2007 1:47:03 PM

Just enough selling to stop out long positions (mine included) and then back up again. TICKs +1000

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2007 1:44:09 PM

Even the DXY 85.02 at WEEKLY Pivot.

Keene Little : 1/30/2007 1:38:03 PM

After this morning's high in the RUT it's now do or die time for the bears. With a Fib projection at 797.81, for the leg up from last Friday's low, and this morning's high of 797.41 I'd say that was close enough. For a bearish wave count that leg up completed an A-B-C bounce from the low on January 19th and should now set up a big decline. Any rally above the January 16th 799.30 high negates that bearish wave count. Therefore it's here that you want to be short the small caps since the risk can be kept small.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2007 1:32:38 PM

Broad brush to say small caps might have more "junk rated" debt, just because they are smaller cap, but they tend to feed off each other.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2007 1:31:33 PM

RUT.X 795.16 ... I'm thinking the same ... PHF $10.12 (unch)

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2007 1:30:55 PM

SMH $33.68 -0.20% ... ditto.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2007 1:30:38 PM

BIX 400.36 +0.22% ... WEEKLY Pivot here too.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2007 1:29:56 PM

DIA $125.00 +0.14% ... just can't make up its mind.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2007 1:27:57 PM

YM 12,545 ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2007 1:18:40 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 1/30/2007 1:18:06 PM

The uptrend line from yesterday afternoon's low for ES is at 1429.50 and that looks to be providing some support at the moment.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2007 1:13:08 PM

XOM $74.24 +1.42% ... not as "bullish" as I'd of thought. #5 weight in INDU/DIA/YM

Keene Little : 1/30/2007 1:11:40 PM

For those who are short ES, two equal legs down from this morning's high is at 1428.25. If this is going to be just a corrective pullback which leads to another push higher into tomorrow then watch for support there. We've also got daily pivot at 1427.50 so bears want to see a break below that level.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2007 1:11:20 PM

Gulp! USO $47.00 +4.53% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2007 1:10:52 PM

TYX.X 4.980% ... off 0.2 bp

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2007 1:10:21 PM

YM 12,530 ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2007 1:10:01 PM

MMM $75.31 -4.62% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2007 1:09:44 PM

IBM $98.75 +0.21% ...

Jane Fox : 1/30/2007 1:09:11 PM

HMMm 1:00EST and the sellers are coming back just like yesterday.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2007 1:06:43 PM

YM long stopped alert at 12,536

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2007 1:06:09 PM

YM 12,539 ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2007 1:01:43 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 1/30/2007 12:56:02 PM

ES 20 dma support at 1430.50 and 10 dma resistance at 1433.50. Pretty tight range entirely dependent on TNX. Overall line in the sand is NYSE 9180, bullish above, bearish below, but with a heads up from ES 1430.50 on a break below.

Keene Little : 1/30/2007 12:54:35 PM

Just for the record I'm short ES after it touched 1433.75 and looked like it was going to hold. I think short is the place to be with a stop at a new daily high. Personally I've lowered my stop to 1432.75 now just to keep things tight. If we continue to consolidate in a sideways move then I'll be thinking higher again.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2007 12:49:56 PM

YM 12,546

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2007 12:49:19 PM

YM 12,543

Jane Fox : 1/30/2007 12:42:12 PM

Jeff has the right idea when he posted the YM long trade with a stop 1 tick under the last swing low. AD volume and VIX are telling me this trade has good odds of being a winner.

Jane Fox : 1/30/2007 12:38:17 PM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Home-price appreciation weakened to its slowest pace in more than 10 years in the 12 months ending in November, MacroMarkets and Standard & Poor's reported Tuesday.

Home prices fell in 17 of 20 cities in November compared with October.

The S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index for 10 major metro areas fell 0.4% in November compared with October, bringing the year-on-year price gain down to 1.3%. The index covering 20 cities also fell 0.4% in November and has gained 1.7% in the past 12 months.

The last time prices were rising so slowly was in late 1996, at the end of a six-year period of flat or falling prices. A year ago, home prices were rising about 16% year-over year.

"Countrywide, home-price declines appear to show no signs of slowing down," said Robert Shiller, chief economist for MacroMarkets, in a press release.

Jane Fox : 1/30/2007 12:36:10 PM

Duncan Energy Partners (DEP) plans to offer 13 million common units at $19 to $21 a share in a bid to raise about $260 million, with underwriters Lehman Brothers and UBS Investment Bank.

Launched by Enterprise Products Partners in September of last year, Duncan was formed to own, operate and acquire a portfolio of midstream energy assets.

Scott Sweet, managing partner and principal researcher at IPO Boutique, said that the deal is "well oversubscribed" with a strong retail concentration. He wrote in a note that Duncan's yield of 8% has been attracting investors.

HFF (HF) plans to offer 14.3 million shares at $15 to $17 a share in a bid by the Pittsburgh-based commercial real-estate and capital-markets services firm to raise about $228 million, with underwriters Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley.

HFF marks the second deal in a week from the real-estate sector after Meruelo Maddox Properties (MMPI) kicked off Thursday at $10 a share. The stock is trading at $10.64 now.

Finally, Animal Health International (AHII) : plans to offer 11.8 million shares at $10 to $12 a share in a bid to raise about $130 million, with underwriters J.P. Morgan and William Blair.

The distributor of animal-health products for pets and livestock drew kudos from fund manger Renaissance Capital, which tapped it as its IPO of the week.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2007 12:34:33 PM

YM long entry alert go long here at 12,547, stop 12,536, target 12,600

Jane Fox : 1/30/2007 12:34:22 PM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- A $400 million initial public offering from Employers Holdings Inc. on Tuesday headlines what could be the busiest day in the IPO market so far in 2007, with as many as four deals ready to take off Wednesday.

Duncan Energy Partners plans to raise $260 million, HFF Inc. wants to raise $228 million and Animal Health International Inc. is anticipating proceeds of $130 million.

Employers Holdings (EIG) plans to offer 26.75 million shares at $14 to $16 a share with underwriters Morgan Stanley, Cochran Caronia Waller, Fox-Pitt, Kelton and Keefe, Bruyette & Woods.

The workman's compensation company is changing its name from EIG Mutual Holding Company as part of the IPO

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2007 12:33:05 PM

S&P Cuts Sprint/Nextel Corporate Credit Rating to 'BBB'

S $17.55 +0.45% ...

Keene Little : 1/30/2007 12:28:47 PM

If ES can get below 1427.50 now it will drop back below daily pivot and the price congestion this morning. That's what the bears want to see happen. Stay aware of the upper Fib target near ES 1437 which would likely get tagged if we're to see a continuation higher into tomorrow's FOMC.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2007 12:27:01 PM

Van Eck Global To Launch Russia ETF

DJ- Van Eck Global plans a new ETF to expose investors to Russia, where the economy grew more than 6% in 2006. Fund would invest only in securities of Russian companies that trade on international exchanges, largely gas and oil giants.

Jane Fox : 1/30/2007 12:19:32 PM

... which is why we have stops. If we were 100% sure then no need for stops heh?

Jane Fox : 1/30/2007 12:19:04 PM

VIX to new daily lows and AD volume to new daily highs. Now I know we saw this yesterday and at 1:00EST the sellers were able to overtake the buyers but I want you to think in probabilities. The highest probability trade right now is long you may get stopped out like yesterday but that is what playing the odds means, sometimes you are not right.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2007 12:18:38 PM

GSO.X 184.11 +0.26% ... still hesitant at its MONTHLY Pivot (184.69)

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2007 12:17:49 PM

XAL.X -1.77%, SMH -0.11%, QQQQ either side of unchanged.

Keene Little : 1/30/2007 12:17:10 PM

This morning the DOW broke above its downtrend line from last week's high and is now coming back for what could be a retest of the line, currently at 12516. If it holds we could see a continuation higher. A break below 12510 (YM 12540) would start to look a little more bearish.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2007 12:16:08 PM

Mind you ... there's probably just as many YM "bears/shorts" contemplating FOMC too.

If not, there should be.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2007 12:13:41 PM

YM 5-minute interval chart at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2007 11:58:36 AM

YM Pivot day traders see the dilemma. YM bull target probably the correlative 12,605, but is it worth it at 12,556 with FOMC tomorrow?

IF IBM finds gap selling at WEEKLY R2, then what? Count on MMM for strength?

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2007 11:55:01 AM

IBM #1 weight in INDU/DIA/YM

MMM #4

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2007 11:54:12 AM

MMM $75.96 -3.79% ....

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2007 11:53:41 AM

YM 12,558 ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2007 11:53:03 AM

IBM $98.86 +0.32% ... WEEKLY R2 right in here too at $98.95.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2007 11:47:31 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2007 11:40:50 AM

SAFECO 4Q NET SURGES ON COST CUTS

DJ- Rigorous cost-cutting, along with lowered catastrophe and other losses, boosts insurer's net income 14% to $216.4 million, or $1.96 a share. Revenue falls 4% to $1.53 billion. Wall Street expected EPS of $1.53.

SAF $63.78 +3.69% ...

Keene Little : 1/30/2007 11:40:09 AM

Looks like sell the earnings news at CME today--it gapped down big and is currently -2.3% but well off its spike low this morning. CME is bouncing off this morning's low but it looks like it will head even lower once the corrective bounce is finished.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2007 11:38:44 AM

US RETAIL SALES RISE 1.6% IN JANUARY

DJ- U.S. chain store sales increase 1.6% in the first four weeks of January, in line with expectations, according to Redbook Research. ICSC-UBS Retail Chain Store Sales Index decreases by 0.9% in the week ended Jan. 27.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2007 11:38:02 AM

WEATHERFORD 4Q NET RISES 12%

DJ- Oil-field products and services provider posts profit of $272 million, or 78c a share. Revenue rises 24% to $1.81 billion. Excluding items, Weatherford earns 76c, beating analysts' expectations by 3c.

WFT $39.73 +1.99% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2007 11:34:45 AM

CME 4Q PROFIT SURGES 35%

DJ- Exchange posts net income of $102.6 million, or $2.91 a share, slightly below Wall Street expectations of $2.97. Revenue increases 26% to $281.3 million as volume climbs 36% to average 508,000 daily contracts.

CME $562.47 -2.32% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2007 11:33:52 AM

Wonder "why" margins getting squeezed at a cereal maker?

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2007 11:33:29 AM

KELLOGG NET OFF 5.2%; MARGINS WEAKEN

DJ- Nation's largest cereal maker posts net income of $182.4 million, or 45c a share. Revenue increases 7.9% to $2.58 billion. Analysts expected EPS of 46c on revenue of $2.53 billion.

K $50.55 -0.51% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2007 11:32:02 AM

BLACK & DECKER 4Q EARNINGS FALL 3%

DJ- Firm earns of $95.7 million, or $1.38 a share, as sales slip 7% to $1.61 billion. Wall Street expected a profit of $1.32 a share on revenue of $1.57 billion.

BDK $86.21 +3.69% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2007 11:31:04 AM

SONY 3Q NET DROPS 5.3% ON WEAKER GAMING DIVISION

DJ- Japanese electronics giant posts net profit of $1.30 billion, saddled by losses at its games division. Revenue rises 9.8%, while operating profit drops 15%. Its Sony BMG Music joint venture settles FTC charges over CDs that secretly track listeners' habits.

SNE $46.58 -0.89% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2007 11:30:06 AM

COLGATE-PALMOLIVE 4Q NET RISES 11%

DJ- Firm posts net income $401.2 million, or 73c a share, which includes 7c of charges. Sales climb 11% to $3.21 billion, helped by strength in Latin America. Wall Street expected EPS of 77c on sales of $3.12 billion.

CL $66.82 +0.16% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2007 11:28:46 AM

WYETH 4Q PROFIT SURGES 17% BUT MISSES VIEWS

DJ- Drug company posts net income of $855.4 million, or 63c a share. Excluding items, earnings are 66c a share. Sales rise 10% to $5.22 billion. Analysts expected earnings of 71c on sales of $5.12 billion.

WYE $49.57 -2.03% ...

Keene Little : 1/30/2007 11:28:09 AM

Two equal legs up from Friday's low at ES 1433.75 got tagged so that was the first opportunity to try a short. If it presses higher then watch for 1437.25.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2007 11:27:13 AM

MERCK 4Q NET FALLS 58%, BACKS GUIDANCE

DJ- Drug firm posts net income of $473.9 million, or 22c a share, as sales of its blockbuster drug Zocor plummet 65%. Excluding charges, it earns 50c, matching estimates. Sales rise 4.8% to $6.04 billion, above analysts' estimate of $5.37 billion.

MRK $45.18 -0.72% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2007 11:26:22 AM

US CONSUMER CONFIDENCE EDGES HIGHER

DJ- Consumer confidence index for January moves to 110.3, from the revised 110.0 in December, amid softer expectations for the economy's outlook. Economists were expecting a reading of 110.0.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2007 11:25:39 AM

UPS NET UP 7.5%; '07 GUIDANCE DISAPPOINTS

DJ- United Parcel Service earns $1.13 billion, or $1.04 a share, boosted by increase in average daily package volume. Revenue rises 5.6% to $12.63 billion. Analysts expected EPS of $1.04 on revenue of $12.87 billion.

UPS $71.26 -3.24% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2007 11:24:40 AM

PROCTER & GAMBLE 2Q NET RISES 12%, BOOSTS OUTLOOK

DJ- Consumer-products company earns $2.86 billion, or 84c a share, beating its estimate by a penny. Sales increase 7.6% to $19.73 billion. Company sees fiscal-year results at or above the high end of its expectations, noting its acquisition of Gillette will cut per-share earnings by less than expected. It warns 3Q earnings may fall short of analysts' estimates.

PG $64.23 -1.00% ...

Keene Little : 1/30/2007 11:23:53 AM

A slightly more bullish possibility for SPX today is a push up to its broken uptrend line from January 8th. By this afternoon that line will be near a 62% retracement of last week's decline (1431.16). That would be at ES 1437.25. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2007 11:19:53 AM

NYSE Comp (NYA.X) 9,189 +0.54% ... clearing its WEEKLY Pivot 9,179.15.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2007 11:19:03 AM

Could be the bull move ... YM 12,558.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2007 11:18:05 AM

YM 12,554 ... "in the zone" between WEEKLY Pivot 12,555 and MONTHLY 61.8% 12,545.

Jane Fox : 1/30/2007 11:14:44 AM

AD volume has now dragged the VIX to new daily lows. All is well in bull country. TICKs are going crazy.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2007 11:14:29 AM

Can really sense/observe the "inchworm" analogy in developing NH/NL. NL are fewer and fewer as the "tail" digs in. NH are fewer and fewer as he "head" pulls back. Coiling, coiling in anticipation of a rapid move.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2007 11:12:30 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 1/30/2007 11:11:23 AM

Price action is certainly choppy and whippy. As long as this hold above this morning's low I'm looking for it to press a little higher. I'm hoping to see a good short set up around ES 1434 and until then I want to try to avoid some of this chop.

Jane Fox : 1/30/2007 11:07:10 AM

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) - Crude-oil futures rose Tuesday morning after a report said Saudi Arabia plans to cut output by 158,000 barrels a day starting Thursday, and that the kingdom has cut almost double the amount it agreed on previously.

At the same time, natural-gas futures rallied as much as 5% as the March contract recovered from the previous session's weakness to trade near a one-week high.

Crude for March delivery was trading up 89 cents at $54.90 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. On Monday, the contract lost 3% of its value as traders questioned OPEC's commitment to the agreed-upon output cuts.

Jane Fox : 1/30/2007 11:05:45 AM

Internals are telling you the highest odds trade is long.

Jane Fox : 1/30/2007 11:03:52 AM

ER is having a tough time breaking its PDH.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2007 11:03:48 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2007 10:45:27 AM

IBM $98.87 +0.33% ... has backfilled its 01/18 to 1/19 gap.

Jane Fox : 1/30/2007 10:36:25 AM

VIx is now making new daily lows supporting the AD volume's new daily highs and it is now safe to go back in the water.

Jane Fox : 1/30/2007 10:32:52 AM

ER is testing its PDH at 799.30.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2007 10:30:36 AM

Icahn Nominated To Motorola Board

DJ- Shares of Motorola Inc. (MOT) perked up nearly 7% after the company said Tuesday that activist investor Carl Icahn has been nominated to the company's board of directors.

Icahn has had a history of taking an active role in companies he perceives are underperforming or improperly run. His interest in Motorola could be seen by investors as an attempt to turn around the company's recent struggles.

Motorola recently traded at $19.52, up $1.20, or 6.6%. They still continue to trade at the bottom end of their 52-week range; the 52-week low was $17.90, set Jan. 12.

The world's No. 2 handset maker recently hit a snag after reporting weak quarterly results for the second-straight period. Prices for its flagship handset Razr have plummeted, and its growing presence in the emerging markets has made turning a profit tougher for the company.

Analysts, however, are skeptical over how much Icahn can do, if he does anything at all. "It's a little different from what he's done in the past," said Bill Choi, an analyst at Jefferies & Co.

Unlike companies such as Time Warner Inc. (TWX), which Icahn tried to take over through a proxy fight last year, there are fewer strategic moves the investor could take to improve Motorola's results. The company has spent the past year streamlining its operations by spinning off its semiconductor unit and selling its automotive assets. Much of Motorola's problems stem from its product line-up, which Icahn would have little influence over.

A spokesman for Icahn couldn't immediately be reached for comment. No details regarding Icahn's intentions were given, according to a press release issued by Motorola. The investor owns 33.5 million shares, or roughly 1.4% of the company's shares outstanding. A vote on his nomination will take place at the annual shareholder meeting, of which no date has been set.

It's unclear whether Icahn will take any action. While Motorola has struggled recently - it posted a 48% decline in fourth-quarter net income - Chairman and Chief Executive Ed Zander is still well regarded on Wall Street.

During the company's 2007 outlook presentation to investors, Zander acknowledged the company's problems and said it was taking steps to increase its profitability. Among them were cost-cutting moves including the elimination of 3,500 jobs.

Zander took responsibility for the missteps and made himself and his team available to investors, a move that Choi said likely endeared him to Wall Street even more.

"Even with this very difficult quarter, he earned some respect," Choi said.

The analyst doesn't own a stake in Motorola, but his firm advised the company on its acquisition of Broadbus Technologies Inc.

Still, others offered a more optimistic view. Prudential Financial analyst Inder Singh believes Icahn's involvement could lead to potential partnerships, mergers or acquisitions, or a change in direction. Until Icahn's intent becomes clearer, shares should move up in anticipation, he said in a note.

The analyst has no conflicts of interest to report.

Tying the two men closer was Zander's recent election to the Time Warner board, which Icahn has had an active hand in. Last year, the investor attempted to take over the media conglomerate through a proxy fight that culminated earlier this month with a report by Lazard, Icahn's investment bank, recommending the company be broken up. He has since backed away from the proxy contest, although the company took some of the steps he had been urging.

Last year, Icahn took over the chairmanship of ImClone Systems Inc. (IMCL) and has had a string of so-called activist investments in companies such as Blockbuster Inc. (BBI) and Kerr-McGee Corp. made through his hedge fund.

Keene Little : 1/30/2007 10:29:43 AM

SPX is struggling with its downtrend line. If it manages to get above it and hold, two equal legs up from yesterday afternoon's low is at 1428.44 and a 50% retracement of last week's decline is at 1428.64. At this point I'd like to see that level get tagged as I think it would set up a good shorting opportunity. That would be about ES 1434.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2007 10:27:23 AM

Correction: to my earlier post regarding NYSE Comp. (NYA.X). It has NOT broken above yesterday's high (9,176.63) at this point.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2007 10:23:35 AM

Walgreen (WAG) $45.78 +0.83% ... back above 50% retracement (05/17/06 low close to recent 9/11/06 high close). Testing a rounding lower 21-day SMA here.

Keene Little : 1/30/2007 10:22:33 AM

SPX is pushing above its downtrend line at 1424.

Keene Little : 1/30/2007 10:21:49 AM

With the DOW lagging the SPX watch to see if it gets a little more bullish with a climb above its downtrend line from last week's high, currently at 12524.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2007 10:20:51 AM

NYSE Composite (NYA.X) 9,175 +0.38% ... edges above yesterday's high. "Doji" from 01/26/07.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2007 10:19:07 AM

3M Earnings ... Press Release Link

Consensus was for EPS of $1.14 on Revenue of $5.76B.

Jane Fox : 1/30/2007 10:14:06 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - A gauge of U.S. consumer confidence edged higher in January, pointing to "moderate" improvement in the first half of the year, the Conference Board said Tuesday.

The consumer confidence index rose to 110.3 in January from a revised 110.0 in December, the private research organization said. It's the highest since May 2002.

Economists were looking for an increase to about 111.0, according to the median forecast of economists surveyed by MarketWatch.

Consumers were more upbeat about the present situation, primarily because of a more favorable job market, said Lynn Franco, head of the consumer research center at the organization. Attitudes about the future declined.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2007 10:12:14 AM

DJ- US "Hot Stocks:"

Agere Systems Inc. (AGR, $20.04, $0.07, 0.35%) reported first-quarter earnings of $16 million, or 9 cents a share, up from a year-ago loss of $19 million, or 11 cents a share. On a non-GAAP (generally accepted accounting principles) basis, the Allentown, Pa., provider of communications semiconductors and software reported a profit of $32 million, or 19 cents a share, in the latest quarter. Revenue slipped in the latest three months to $372 million from $403 million in the same period a year earlier. The average estimate of analysts polled by Thomson Financial was for a profit of 22 cents a share in December period on sales of $380 million. Agere sees earnings and revenue for the March quarter coming in roughly flat with its performance in the December quarter. The stock closed Wednesday at $22.30, up 4.4%.

AllianceBernstein Holding LP (AB, $89.59, $0, 0%) reported its profits jumped a record 45.1% in the fourth quarter, aided by $10.6 billion in net inflows and a 23.9% boost in assets under management.

American International Group Inc. (AIG, $68.57, $0.22, 0.32%) said it offered to buy the 38.1% of 21st Century Insurance Group that it doesn't already own for roughly $690 million in cash.

AmeriCredit Corp. (ACF, $26.23, $0.21, 0.81%) said second-quarter net income rose, as revenue gained, to $95.4 million, or 74 cents a share, from $86.6 million, or 59 cents a share, during the same period in the prior year.

AT&T Inc. (T, $36.64, $0.13, 0.36%) said fourth-quarter income rose 17%, helped by record gains in the company's wireless business. AT&T's results largely exclude sales and profits from BellSouth, which the company acquired for $86 billion in the final days of 2006. In the fourth quarter, San Antonio, Texas-based AT&T reported a profit of $1.9 billion, or 50 cents a share, compared with $1.7 billion, or 46 cents a share, a year earlier. Revenue rose 23.1% to $15.9 billion from $12.9 billion, mostly owing to the acquisition of the old AT&T last year. SBC Communications bought AT&T and adopted the famous name as its own. Omitting merger-related costs and other one-time items, AT&T said it would have earned $2.4 billion, or 61 cents a share. On that basis, the company was expected to earn 59 cents a share, according to the consensus of analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial. Looking ahead, AT&T said it expects to generate sharply higher savings from the BellSouth merger than originally forecast and that the newly acquired business will contribute modestly to income growth in 2007. AT&T also said it expects overall revenue in 2007, adjusted for recent acquisition, to "return to growth."

Beazer Homes USA Inc. (BZH, $42.35, -$0.02, -0.05%) reported a net loss of $59 million, or $1.54 a share, in the first quarter ended Dec. 31, a reversal from the profit of $89.9 million, or $2 a share, generated in the same period during fiscal 2006. The Atlanta-based home builder said it would have posted net income of $15.9 million, or 41 cents a share, for the latest quarter adjusted to exclude charges for inventory impairments and abandoned land-option contracts. Quarterly revenue dropped to $806.4 million from nearly $1.11 billion a year earlier. Analysts were looking for earnings of 26 cents a share on revenue of $721 million, according to estimates compiled by Thomson Financial. "At this point, we have yet to see any meaningful evidence of a sustainable recovery in the housing market," said Ian McCarthy, Beazer's president and chief executive. The company's home closings totaled 2,660 in the latest quarter, down 31%. Beazer also said it's aiming to generate earnings of $1.25 to $1.50 a share for fiscal 2007, excluding any impact of inventory impairments and abandonment of land-option contracts; Wall Street's average stands at $2.47 a share. Shares of Beazer Home added $1.42, or 3.1%, to end Wednesday's trading at $47.01.

Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. (BMY, $27.58, $0.15, 0.55%) posted a fourth-quarter loss of $134 million, or 7 cents a share. In the year-ago period the drug maker earned $499 million, or 26 cents a share. Excluding items, it earned $380 million, or 19 cents a share, compared to $601 million, or 31 cents a share. Net sales slipped to $4.21 billion from $5.02 billion. Analysts, on average, expected it to earn 16 cents a share on revenue of $4.18 billion, according to Thomson Financial. The company expects to 2007 profit between $1.12 and $1.22. Excluding items, Bristol-Myers forecast profit of $1.20 to $1.30 a share. Analysts polled by Thomson Financial expect it to earn $1.22 a share, on average.

Cardinal Health Inc. (CAH, $71.45, $0.59, 0.83%) said second-quarter net income rose to $739.3 million, or $1.80 a share, from $304 million, or 70 cents a share. On a continuing operations basis, it earned 77 cents a share. Revenue rose to $21.78 billion from $19.35 billion. Analysts, on average, expected it to earn 78 cents a share, according to Thomson Financial. Cardinal Health backed its 2007 profit forecast of $3.25 to $3.40 a share, excluding the impact of proceeds from the planned sale of its PTS business. The company also said it agreed to buy SpecialtyScripts Pharmacy to broaden its specialty pharmaceutical service offerings for pharmaceutical manufacturers. Terms were not disclosed.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2007 10:07:32 AM

New Iraq Report Makes Case for Victory

PR Newswire- A new report on Iraq was released today that covers many subjects not touched on by the Iraq Study Group. Titled Citizens Report on Iraq: Attainable Victory vs. the Propaganda of Defeat, the report was conceived, researched and authored by independent citizens with experience in Iraq who are concerned that the American people and politicians are ill-informed about the situation in Iraq.

Report at this Link (pdf)

Jane Fox : 1/30/2007 10:06:06 AM

This is why you need to watch both of these internals, some days it is the VIX that leads and some days the volume. However, if both are heading in the same direction you know it is time to stand asdie.

Jane Fox : 1/30/2007 10:04:12 AM

TICKS +1000 - AD volume wins

Jane Fox : 1/30/2007 10:04:02 AM

VIX continues to make new daily highs along with the AD volume making new daily highs. WHich one will win?

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2007 10:02:15 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Keene Little : 1/30/2007 10:00:02 AM

Jane, that consolidation pattern has me wondering the same thing. The RUT has had the same kind of consolidation pattern and looks like it might run higher out of it. As long as the RUT stays below 799.30, the high on January 16th, I'm bearish the RUT. As soon as that high gets violated then we run the possibility of seeing several more weeks of a choppy move higher to a final high (possibly as late as March up around 820).

Jane Fox : 1/30/2007 9:59:59 AM

Makes no sense to think we will move higher from here but I have learned to not trade what makes sense but what I see on the charts.

Jane Fox : 1/30/2007 9:58:34 AM

If you play the offs then the highest odds for a move out of a consolidation at highs is a move higher.

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2007 9:55:33 AM

3M Execs: See Economy, Growth Accelerating in 2nd Half of 2007

Jane Fox : 1/30/2007 9:55:31 AM

You know I have talked many times about when a bearish MACD divergence is not bearish - when price moves sideways and MACD moves down. Does this not worry the bears out there, it does me. THen add the M3 charts that Keene has shown lately and you begin to think "this just may be a ramp up to the next bull move." Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/30/2007 9:52:43 AM

3M Execs: No Longer Providing Quarterly Guidance

Q1 Likely "Most Challenging" Of The Year

3M (MMM) $74.86 -5.23% ...

Keene Little : 1/30/2007 9:52:06 AM

The slightly bigger picture for me is bearish at the moment. Even with another bounce to slightly higher than yesterday's high it merely sets up a better shorting opportunity. Depending on your risk tolerance and what vehicle you're using to trade, you may want to ride out the noise.

Keene Little : 1/30/2007 9:50:12 AM

Looking at the DOW chart I posted below (1:40 AM) you can see I've depicted price dropping this morning and then rallying up into FOMC. If that plays out then we could see two equal legs down from yesterday's high to then set up the bounce. Potential support therefore could be at DOW 12447 and YM 12482 (if we get there).

The only problem with this scenario is that a further drop in SPX would look more bearish. That one suggests we could already be starting the 2nd leg up in the bounce off Friday's low. It's a mixed picture here with some choppy price action. Flat just might be the best position until this clears up a little more.

Jane Fox : 1/30/2007 9:46:55 AM

YM tags its PDLs and ER tags its PDHs. ES and NQ are stuck in the middle of their PDRs. Link

Jane Fox : 1/30/2007 9:42:52 AM

AD volume continues to make new daily highs but the VIX is also making new daily highs. It is very clear to me that this is not the time to be trading, which is just as important to know as which side to take.

Keene Little : 1/30/2007 9:39:19 AM

TNX (10-year yield) is pulling back this morning (ZN rallying a bit) and it looks like a consolidation at the highs (for yield). The consolidation is likely due to FOMC tomorrow but the pattern suggests rates will run higher again so whatever the Fed says my guess is bonds will sell the news. That will probably mean equities will sell the news as well.

Jane Fox : 1/30/2007 9:39:07 AM

YM is the first market to break its overnight lows. Now ER does as well.

Jane Fox : 1/30/2007 9:38:24 AM

I got caught long at 1:00EST yesterday but the internals were telling me things were bullish and I did not see the selling coming. I wonder if anyone could have picked that up.

Jane Fox : 1/30/2007 9:36:25 AM

TRIN opens below its PDL and VIX opens mid point in its PDR.

Keene Little : 1/30/2007 9:36:24 AM

Strange opening with SPX and DOW running in two different directions. The bounce attempt from yesterday afternoon's low looks like a bear flag on the DOW but SPX popped up out of its flag so I'm not sure what will happen next. It looks like the market wants to press higher though.

Jane Fox : 1/30/2007 9:35:43 AM

AD line is +894 adn ad volume above 0 and climbing. THe bulls have the ball this morning.

Keene Little : 1/30/2007 9:24:57 AM

On the SPX 60-min chart I posted below (1:40 AM) I show another leg up for the bounce from Friday's low. For ES if we get two equal legs up at 1433.75 (assuming yesterday's afternoon's low was the end of the pullback). A 50% retracement of last week's decline is at 1434.25 so there's some Fib correlation there for that possibility. Something to consider if you're short and hoping for a continuation lower today.

Keene Little : 1/30/2007 9:15:34 AM

Equity futures got a nice rally from 6:00 AM. YM has given back the most but all are at or above the overnight highs before that ramp up. I'm not sure what that will mean for the cash opening but certainly be aware we could see at least a retest of the pre-market highs.

Jane Fox : 1/30/2007 9:15:10 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The dollar traded little changed against other major currencies early Tuesday, ahead of an economic report expected to show an increase in U.S. consumer confidence this month.

Meanwhile, the Federal Open Market Committee, the Fed's policy-setting panel, starts its two-day interest-rate meeting, and is widely expected to leave overnight borrowing costs unchanged at 5.25% on Thursday.

"The pendulum of expectations has swung from several [first-half] rate cuts late last year to no cuts and that a further swing toward a hike is unlikely but in fact there appears to be some risk the pendulum could swing even further," said Marc Chandler, global head of currency strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman, in a note.

Jane Fox : 1/30/2007 9:12:05 AM

Crude up, Gold up and $ down so all is well with these three markets. Link

Jane Fox : 1/30/2007 9:10:44 AM

It was a bullish overnight session with the Russell 2000 breaking its PDH. When you have nice moves like this during the ON session the ON highs and lows can be very clear areas of support and resistance so please take note of them. Link

Jane Fox : 1/30/2007 9:04:45 AM

I get my economic reports from the WSJ and sometimes they get it wrong. The only economic report today is the 10:00a.m. Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index. Expected: 110.0. Previous: 109.0. I incorrectly posted Dec Personal Income and Spending reports to be released at 8:30 this morning.

Jane Fox : 1/30/2007 8:55:54 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The Chicago Mercantile Holdings Inc. said fourth-quarter earnings advanced 35% as rising trading activity in the red-hot derivatives markets boosted clearing fees and commissions, but the results still fell short of analyst expectations as rising expenses took a toll.

The company (CME), which expects to close its previously announced merger with cross-town counterpart the Chicago Board of Trade (BOT), said net income for the quarter rose to $103 million, or $2.91 a share, from $76.3 million, or $2.18 a share, a year ago.

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