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Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2007 11:33:47 PM

Energy Observations: Why is/did BHI do what it did on the bull side, then fall like a rock after my bullish exit on 12/14/06 at $77.17?

Why did SLB fall like a rock after bull entry on 12/14/07 at $68.21?

Why did PTR's puts provide a "handsome" gain 01/04/07 entry and partial 01/05/07 exit at $130.40. Then a "gorrila" gain on 01/10/07 remaining position exit at $122.59 and despite a nice BOUNCE in oil/USO with as many reasons as long as your arm, PTR sticks near $122 at today's close.

Why has oil fallen just after the last two EIA Weekly Inventory reports, only to whip back higher within an hour's time on 01/24/07 and again on Wednesday?

Why, why, why?

I will attempt to explain WHY I think oil and related stocks are trading the way they are in later commentary. My trade blotter may be KEY in understanding what the EIA data and HEADLINE RISK (Chavez) is having on things.

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2007 11:17:20 PM

January Trade Blotter of CLOSED Trades that I've made at this Link

Keene Little : 1/31/2007 10:53:46 PM

Thursday's pivot tables: Link and Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2007 10:41:54 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List at this Link

OI Technical Staff : 1/31/2007 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2007 6:46:09 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2007 6:24:59 PM

Sunoco (SUN) $63.13 +0.17% ... marked higher at $63.50 extended.

Earnings Press Release Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2007 5:52:33 PM

"In addition, we witnessed some promising signs of stabilization at the conclusion of the quarter, and into the first month of 2007, although it's too early to tell how strong and sustainable this may prove to be in the months ahead. The cancellation rate, which declined to 34.7% in the fourth quarter from 35.8% in the third quarter, continued to improve into January 2007. Going forward, Pulte will maintain its keen focus on balance sheet improvement, while working diligently to build pre-sold inventory as the selling season unfolds." - Richard J. Dugas, Jr., President and CEO of Pulte Homes

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2007 5:48:08 PM

Pulte Homes (PHM) $34.34 +4.72% ... marked lower at $33.60 extended.

Earnings Press Release at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2007 5:45:49 PM

March Crude Oil futures (cl07h) settled up $1.17, or +2.05% at $58.14.

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2007 5:35:32 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2007 5:29:27 PM

J.B. Hunt (JBHT) $25.13 +2.36% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2007 5:25:56 PM

YRC Worldwide (YRCW) $44.35 +0.36% ... perking up too.

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2007 5:22:56 PM

Good Gravy! ... NASDAQ-100 Component ... C.H. Robinson Worldwide (CHRW) $53.20 +21.57% surged today.

AP Earnings Story Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2007 5:10:30 PM

Ligand Pharma (LGND) $12.99 +0.69% ... halted for trade.

Company Press Release Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2007 4:52:16 PM

QQQQ $44.03 extended.

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2007 4:51:06 PM

Dell Computer (DELL) ... release for trade. $25.50 extended.

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2007 4:48:28 PM

Dell (DELL) $24.22 -0.28% ... Still halted ... indicated $26.71 ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2007 4:45:39 PM

Sunoco (SUN) $63.13 +0.17% ... waiting on earnings.

Consensus is for EPS of $0.95 on Revenue of $6.60B

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2007 4:42:26 PM

Pulte Homes (PHM) $34.34 +4.72% .... waiting on earnings.

Consensus is for EPS of $-0.01 on Revenue of $4.14B.

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2007 4:37:20 PM

SBUX $35.35 extended.

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2007 4:37:06 PM

GOOG $488 extended.

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2007 4:36:46 PM

QQQQ $43.91 extended.

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2007 4:36:21 PM

Dell Computer (DELL) ... NASDAQ trading halt should be lifted somewhere between 04:45-04:50 PM EST.

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2007 4:33:54 PM

Dell Computer (DELL) ... Michael Dell Assumes Duties as CEO of Dell. Company Press Release Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2007 4:32:14 PM

Dell Computer (DELL) $24.22 -0.28% ... halted for trade (news pending)

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2007 4:22:57 PM

Starbucks (SBUX) $34.94 +1.09% ... $35.10 extended.

Earnings Press Release Link

Consensus was for EPS of $0.26 on Revenue of $2.35B

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2007 4:18:48 PM

GOOG $501.50 +1.45% ... looks to be the official close.

$490.50 extended. Low/high extended has been 473.21-507.24

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2007 4:17:11 PM

Incredible after-hours trade for the GOOG.

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2007 4:14:57 PM

QQQQ Went out at $44.06 +0.98% ... $44.06 extended.

February MONTHLY Pivot Levels ... $41.13, $42.59, Piv= $44.00, $45.46, $46.87.

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2007 4:13:09 PM

Microsoft (MSFT) $30.86 +1.24% ... quiet at $30.86.

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2007 4:10:47 PM

Baidu.com (BIDU) $124.94 +0.70% .... $124.19 extended. Extended low/high so far $123.01-$124.94.

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2007 4:09:08 PM

Yahoo! (YHOO) $28.31 +0.96% ... $28.13 extended. It has traded $27.79-$28.49 extended.

Keene Little : 1/31/2007 4:07:52 PM

I'm looking for a pullback tomorrow but then a continuation higher into early next week. I suspect tomorrow will look more like a consolidation day that won't be fun to trade.

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2007 4:06:31 PM

Google (GOOG) ... Earnings Press Release Link

Jane Fox : 1/31/2007 4:05:33 PM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Treasury prices closed higher Wednesday, sending yields lower, after the Federal Open Market Committee held steady on rates and issued a stance initially viewed as vigilant on inflation.

Although the statement left the door open for further rate hikes, the bond market initially responded well in part because the central bank acknowledged that core inflation is improving.

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2007 4:05:20 PM

Google (GOOG) $501.50 1.45% ... $488 extended. Has traded 473.21.

Jane Fox : 1/31/2007 4:04:38 PM

Economic Reports for tomorrow include:

7:30a.m. Jan Challenger Layoffs Survey. Previous: -29%.

8:30a.m. Initial Jobless Claims. Expected: -10K. Previous: +36K.

8:30a.m. Dec Personal Income. Expected: +0.6%. Previous: +0.3%.

8:30a.m. Dec Personal Spending. Expected: +0.8%. Previous: +0.5%.

10:00a.m. Jan ISM Mfg Index. Expected: 52.0. Previous: 51.4.

10:00a.m. Dec Pending Home Sales. Previous: -0.5%.

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2007 4:04:25 PM

Ohhhhh Myyyyyy!

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2007 4:03:16 PM

Sell Program Premium ... YM 12,660 : SPY $143.80

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2007 4:02:42 PM

Google (GOOG) goes out at $501.33 +1.41% ... Consensus is for EPS of $1.54 on Revenue of $2.19B

Jane Fox : 1/31/2007 3:56:53 PM

The VIX and ES were mirror images of each again today. Link

Keene Little : 1/31/2007 3:30:33 PM

SPX to new highs also now. While some longer term Fib projections point to SPX 1452-1455 the shorter term pattern, similar to what I just posted for the DOW, shows SPX 1447-1448 for an upside target to end the rally. This correlates to the DOW 12707 target. I'll watch to see if anything changes this expectation over the next couple of days. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2007 3:23:02 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 1/31/2007 3:18:41 PM

Based on today's price action and the new high for the DOW (and RUT) I'm now expecting to see the market push a little higher before the rally can be considered complete (as in Really complete). A little consolidation followed by another push higher towards a Fib target of DOW 12707 (maybe higher if SPX is going to push up to its Fib target near 1452-1455) by mid week next week is what I'm now expecting to see. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2007 3:02:19 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2007 2:57:16 PM

USO Daily Interval bar chart with retracement at this Link

Keene Little : 1/31/2007 2:57:12 PM

Looking at the short term pattern on the DOW now, and the daily chart, the shot higher today now gives me the impression that we're going to see a little higher in a stair-stepping fashion (probably shallow consolidations followed additional pushes to the upside). We could see the DOW up near 12700 before the rally is kaput.

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2007 2:53:17 PM

USO $48.31 +2.00% .... has probed WEEKLY R2 $48.43.

Jane Fox : 1/31/2007 2:51:14 PM

It will be interesting and very telling to see if the bulls can hold on to these gains and even more interesting if they can add to them. I suspect we will see a retracement that will be scary.

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2007 2:50:05 PM

Dow Transports (TRAN) 4,898 +2.29% ... stick their head above November's relative high.

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2007 2:48:40 PM

GOOG $504.55 +2.06% ... for those going to sleep

Keene Little : 1/31/2007 2:47:49 PM

Yawn, new all-time highs for the DOW.

Jane Fox : 1/31/2007 2:46:16 PM

NQ has a long ways to go to make new yearly highs. Link

Jane Fox : 1/31/2007 2:45:13 PM

New yearly highs and so new all time highs here, however. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2007 2:43:21 PM

"Rooster alert" ... BIX.X 403.08 +0.63% ... probes overlapping WEEKLY R1/MONTHLY Pivot.

Jane Fox : 1/31/2007 2:43:04 PM

Not here either. Link

Jane Fox : 1/31/2007 2:42:06 PM

We have a very bullish day today for sure but let's step back and look at the dailies. Here is ER, no new yearly highs yet. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2007 2:42:05 PM

RUT.X 801.47 +0.43% ... the canary might be singing, but the rooster has yet to crow.

Keene Little : 1/31/2007 2:41:38 PM

If the market has been rallying the past many months because of the expectation for lower rates from the Fed then one might ask why it's rallying still. If the best-case scenario now is that the Fed will stand pat on rates and might even raise them then the stock market should be selling the news. This is of course an unanswerable question and one more reason not to trade this market based on funnymentals. It has to do with money supply and human emotions (which is over-the-top bullish right now). Don't fight it until we see evidence it's turning.

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2007 2:40:17 PM

EBAY $32.33 +0.74% ... yesterday's high was 1/25/07 post-earnings close.

Jane Fox : 1/31/2007 2:39:32 PM

Can someone say let's get real. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2007 2:39:32 PM

BIDU $125.05 +0.78% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2007 2:39:18 PM

YHOO $28.31 +0.96% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2007 2:39:00 PM

GOOG 503.85 +1.92% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2007 2:38:27 PM

MIVA $4.41 +2.79% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2007 2:37:13 PM

RUT.X alert! 801.97

Keene Little : 1/31/2007 2:36:32 PM

Now we're looking more bullish here. With the RUT above 799.30 (my little canary) all bearish bets are off the table for now.

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2007 2:35:31 PM

Homebuilder (DJUSHB) 749.52 +3.91% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2007 2:34:05 PM

Buy Program Premium YM 12,635 : SPX 1,435

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2007 2:31:45 PM

NASDAQ a/d squared at 1,500/1,500

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2007 2:31:28 PM

NYSE a/d 1,953/1,258

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2007 2:30:38 PM

RUT.X 799.28 +0.16% ... cleaned out some retail short no doubt. Question become the institutions at MONTHLY R1.

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2007 2:29:32 PM

GOOG 503.45 +1.84% ... hands full here. Earnings after the close!

Keene Little : 1/31/2007 2:28:54 PM

This is the updated ES 60-min chart I posted at the end of the day yesterday which shows the broken uptrend line from January 10th. This trend line is a little higher than the equivalent one for SPX which just shot higher than the trend line. Regardless, this is a potential kiss goodbye in the making. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2007 2:27:42 PM

XOM $74.19 -0.26% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2007 2:27:25 PM

PTR $123.08 -1.33% ....

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2007 2:26:54 PM

USO $48.25 +1.87% ... oooooeeee!

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2007 2:25:40 PM

YM 12,628 ... tags WEEKLY R1 and just above my bull target from yesterday.

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2007 2:24:53 PM

PHF $10.12 ....

Keene Little : 1/31/2007 2:24:36 PM

We got a bigger push up than I thought we'd see. ES almost tagged the Fib level where the 2nd leg up in the bounce from last Friday's low achieved 162% of the 1st leg up (at 1440.25). Depending on your risk tolerance that level is a good place to try a short but the appropriate stop is above last week's high at 1446.50. However, any rally above 1442 would have me standing aside rather than trying any more short attempts today.

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2007 2:24:29 PM

TYX.X down 3.8 bp and probes its WEEKLY Pivot. Buyer gobbled up YIELD this morning juuuuust above 5.00% again.

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2007 2:21:36 PM

RUT.X "key level" 801.43 and MONTHLY R1.

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2007 2:21:00 PM

RUT.X alert 800.00

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2007 2:20:41 PM

No mention of "energy prices."

Jane Fox : 1/31/2007 2:20:27 PM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The Federal Reserve held overnight interest rates steady for the fifth straight meeting on Wednesday, seeing little reason to act as the economy looks stronger and inflation is declining gradually.

In the statement, the Federal Open Market Committee that inflation risks remain and that additional tightening may be needed.

The statement following the meeting acknowledged both firmer growth and more moderate inflation. "Overall, the economy seems likely to expand at a moderate pace over coming quarters," the committee said.

"Some tentative signs of stabilization have appeared in the housing market," the committee said.

On inflation, the committee said "readings on core inflation have improved modestly in recent months, and inflation pressures seem likely to moderate over time. However, the high level of resource utilization has the potential to sustain inflation pressures."

The vote was unanimous.

Jane Fox : 1/31/2007 2:19:42 PM

Markets are going CRAZY!!!

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2007 2:19:35 PM

No surprise on my part regarding "housing" observation from FOMC. See my CME housing futures tables.

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2007 2:18:48 PM

Some shift ... "firmer economic growth" from "growth has slowed."

"tentative signs of stabilization have appeared in the housing market" from "substantial cooling of the housing market."

Jane Fox : 1/31/2007 2:17:04 PM

* FOMC says key price risk is high resource use
* FOMC says core inflation has improved modestly
* FOMC sees firmer growth, signs of stable housing
* FOMC vote unanimous
* FOMC repeats further tightening 'may' be needed
* FOMC statement more upbeat on economy, inflation
* FOMC still concerned with inflation

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2007 2:16:52 PM

Today's FOMC Statement Link

12/12/06 Statement at this Link

Jane Fox : 1/31/2007 2:15:43 PM

NO sorry TICKS +1000

Keene Little : 1/31/2007 2:15:15 PM

Watch for the cha-cha-cha before setting a direction.

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2007 2:15:13 PM

Alternating buy/sell program premiums ...

Jane Fox : 1/31/2007 2:15:01 PM

TICKS -1000.

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2007 2:14:37 PM

FOMC: Leaves Rates at 5.25%

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2007 2:14:01 PM

NASDAQ a/d 1,270/1,701

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2007 2:13:47 PM

NYSE a/d 1,585/1,614

Jane Fox : 1/31/2007 2:13:13 PM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- U.S.-listed shares of Chinese companies tumbled Wednesday, tracking sharp losses in their home markets, after a senior legislator warned the mainland stock market could be overheating after a stunning 130% gain last year.

Keene Little : 1/31/2007 2:09:50 PM

Getting a quick push up into FOMC. That's usually not what bulls want to see. Keep an eye on how SPX behaves if it jumps up and tags that 1431-1432 area (ES 1437-1438). I'd consider a short there.

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2007 2:08:48 PM

Approximately 7 minutes until FOMC statement.

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2007 1:57:46 PM

"The rest of the story...." Today's EIA inventory data should be viewed as "bearish for crude oil" near-term in my opinion (based on fundamental analysis), but the recent inflection low found on 01/18/07 and my 01/17/07 09:31:44 MM Post Link as well as today's 12:08:22 headline brings traders up to speed.

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2007 1:19:37 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2007 1:11:54 PM

But now you know ... "a portion of the story."

Keene Little : 1/31/2007 1:10:58 PM

It's interesting how the ascending wedge and Fibs for SPX, as shown on this 30-min chart, are pointing to the 1431-1432 (cash) area by the time we get the FOMC announcement. If I were to guess price action here I'd say we're going to get a throw-over on the reaction and then start a sell off post-FOMC. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2007 1:10:34 PM

USO $47.36 (unch) ... Yes indeed. Some "sell the news" on Chavez.

Jane Fox : 1/31/2007 1:07:09 PM

I am not dipping my toe in the water today. It has been a choppy mess since the early morning surge and after the FED announcement (which we all KNOW will be) the markets are so wild it leaves all the indicators virtually useless. FED announcement days are just not worth trading.

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2007 1:04:10 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 1/31/2007 1:02:46 PM

DAteline WSJ - The official committee of unsecured creditors for Delta Air Lines Inc. today rejected the hostile takeover bid by US Airways Group Inc. and formally endorsed the Atlanta airline's plan to reorganize and exit from bankruptcy this spring as an independent company.

US Airways said in a statement today that it has withdrawn its offer, formally valued at $9.75 billion in cash and stock, which would have expired Thursday. The Tempe, Ariz., carrier had expressed a willingness to add another $1 billion in cash if the creditors committee agreed to demand that Delta open its finances to due diligence by US Airways, support the start of a federal antitrust review and petition the bankruptcy court for a 30-day postponement of the Feb. 7 hearing on Delta's restructuring plan.

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2007 12:54:51 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List found at this Link ... Closed partial USO, raised stop on rest.

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2007 12:47:01 PM

CME Share Correction (see 11:47:11 AM Post) ... DJ- About 197,800 Chicago Mercantile Exchange Holdings Inc. (CME) shares will be released each month as a result of the decision to lower the share requirement for clearing members.

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2007 12:43:58 PM

Baidu.com (BIDU) $125.54 +1.18% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2007 12:43:28 PM

Yahoo! (YHOO) $28.11 +0.24% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2007 12:42:52 PM

Google (GOOG) $502.27 +1.60% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2007 12:41:29 PM

Texas Pacific Land Trust 4Q EPS $1.79 Vs $1.01

DJ- Texas Pacific Land Trust's (TPL) fourth-quarter net income rose to $3.8 million, or $1.79 a share, from $2.18 million, or $1.01 a share, a year ago.

The Dallas-based real estate investment trust said rentals, royalties and other income fell to $3.13 million from $3.53 million, while land sales rose to $6.58 million from $713,368.

The company's income-tax provision grew to $1.77 million from $876,035.

TPL $231.00 +0.87% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2007 12:22:33 PM

XOM $74.03 -0.48% ...

PTR $122.35 -1.91% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2007 12:11:44 PM

Bullish swing trade sell 1/4 position alert ... of the US Oil Fund (AMEX:USO) here at $47.89 +1.11% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2007 12:08:50 PM

US Oil Fund (AMEX:USO) $47.93 +1.20% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2007 12:08:22 PM

Venezueala's Congress Approves Special Presidential Powers For Chaves

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2007 12:04:58 PM

Altria's Q4 Net Up 29%, Kraft Q4 Net Drops 19%

DJ- Altria Group Inc.'s (MO) fourth-quarter net income rose 29% on higher operating income, while Kraft Foods Inc.'s (KFT) fourth-quarter profit fell 19%, hurt by higher costs and lower revenue.

Earlier Wednesday, Altria, a Dow component, approved the long-awaited spinoff of its 88.6% stake in Kraft Foods Inc. (KFT).

Altria's fourth-quarter net income rose to $2.96 billion, or $1.40 a share, from $2.29 billion, or $1.09 a share, a year earlier.

Excluding items, such as asset impairment and exit costs, earnings rose $1.27 a share from $1.17 a share a year earlier.

Revenue increased 3.7% to $25.4 billion from $24.49 billion a year ago.

Analysts polled by Thomson Financial expected Altria, on average, to earn $1.22 a share on revenue of $18.14 billion.

Operating income rose 16.2% to $4.2 billion helped by such things as a $488 million gain from the reorganization of tobacco and beer equity holdings.

At Altria's Philip Morris USA, market share increased 0.1 point to 50.1%, helped by Marlboro and Parliament cigarette brands. Operating companies income rose 4.2% to $1.1 billion due to lower wholesale promotional allowance rates.

Philip Morris USA had shipment volume of 45.3 billion units, down 0.4% from a year ago.

Philip Morris International shipment volume increased 3.9% in the quarter, to 191.4 billion units.

Altria expects 2007 earnings from continuing operations of $4.15 to $4.20 a share, including charges of about 8 cents a share and excluding Kraft. Including items, earnings from continuing operations are expected to be in the mid-single-digit range, from an adjusted base of $4.05 a share for 2006.

Kraft, one of the world's largest food makers, had fourth-quarter net income of $624 million, or 38 cents a share, down from $724 million, or 46 cents a share, a year earlier. Sales fell 3% to $9.37 billion from $9.66 billion as the latest quarter had one less week than the year-ago quarter.

Excluding items such as asset impairment, exit and implementation costs, earnings fell to 51 cents a share from 56 cents a share a year earlier.

On average, Kraft was expected to earn 51 cents a share on revenue of $9.44 billion.

Kraft will give its 2007 outlook on Feb. 20.

MO $87.73 +0.22% ... #3 weight in INDU/DIA/YM

KFT $34.92 +0.25% ...

Jane Fox : 1/31/2007 12:01:23 PM

Dateline WSJ - Delta Air Lines creditors reject US Airways merger bid, reach agreement with Delta on standalone plan. Full story to follow shortly.

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2007 11:59:08 AM

Fannie Mae To Secure $200M In Savings By Year-End

DJ- Fannie Mae (FNM) Chief Executive Daniel Mudd said the government-sponsored mortgage company expects to realize $200 million in cost savings this year and to cut its operating expenses to less than $2 billion annually.

"The costs of running the business rose as we focused on restatement, remediation and growing the business," Mudd said in remarks Wednesday at an investor conference organized by Citigroup Inc. (C) in New York. "The emphasis was speed, but not efficiency. We need to operate smarter and cheaper, and we can."

He said the company's chief operating officer, Mike Williams, is leading the effort to "drive out inefficiency in our company operations, with a real emphasis on reengineering how we do business." To achieve the cost-saving goal in 2007, Mudd said the company began by freezing headcount and space, conducting line-by-line reviews of every business and staff-function budget, among other measures. "These are brute-force cost measures, taken in real time," he said.

Fannie Mae, which was chartered by Congress but whose shares are owned by shareholders, buys home mortgages from lenders and packages them into securities.

FNM $56.09 +0.46% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2007 11:57:10 AM

Chile: Govt. Sees 2007 Copper Price At $2.40 Per Pound

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2007 11:56:09 AM

Peru: New Car Sales Surge 40.8% On Year In 2006

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2007 11:54:43 AM

US Airways Withdraws Offer For Delta Air Lines

DJ- U.S. Airways Group (LCC) withdrew its hostile takeover offer for Delta Air Lines Inc. (DALRQ) on Wednesday, unable to persuade Delta's creditors to allow the company to open its books to U.S. Air by a deadline of Thursday, Feb. 1.

U.S. Airways Chief Executive Doug Parker said he was disappointed. "It is now clear that there will not be an opportunity with the [Delta] committee to move forward in a timely or productive manner and as a result, we have withdrawn our offer," he said.

U.S. Air's offer was for about $10.2 billion in cash and stock for Delta, currently in Chapter 11 reorganization.

LCC $52.75 -0.65%

DALRQ $1.13 -2.58% ...

Keene Little : 1/31/2007 11:50:38 AM

Considering the potential ascending wedge for ES that I just posted, if we get another push higher keep an eye on 1436.25 as that is a Fib projection for the move. The other Fib is at 1437.25 which is a 62% retracement of last week's decline.

If the Boyz are worried about a post-FOMC sell off then they could be making an effort to push the market, the DOW in particular, up into FOMC in order to maintain a cushion above where we started January (12462). Keeping January in the green could be the goal for today.

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2007 11:47:58 AM

Chicago Merc. (CME) $564.62 -0.63% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2007 11:47:11 AM

CME Lowers Class-A Shr Floor For Clearing Members

DJ- Chicago Mercantile Exchange Holdings Inc. (CME) reduced its class-A share requirement for clearing members in a bid to cut transaction costs for existing members and attract new ones.

The exchange said new firms applying for clearing-member status will be required to acquire 8,000 shares of Chicago Mercantile Exchange class-A shares, down from the previous requirement of 15,000 shares.

About 197,8000 shares will be released each month as a result of the decision. In the fourth quarter, CME shares traded an average of 711,554 shares a day.

The requirement for existing clearing firms will drop by about 2,300 shares a month over a three-month period starting Feb. 1, CME said.

Each of the exchange's current clearing firms will benefit from the release about $4 million in additional equity capital over time, CME said.

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2007 11:40:29 AM


DJ- Firm says net income more than doubles to $44.9 million, or 85c a share, as average daily volume rises 36%. Excluding charges, it earns $1.03 a share. Revenue climbs 48% to $169.3 million. Analysts expected 99c EPS and revenue of $172.2 million.

BOT $168.48 -0.39% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2007 11:39:09 AM


DJ- Holding company posts net income of $42.3 million, or 48c a share. Revenue increases 40% to $124.8 million. Excluding a gain, it earns 46c. Analysts expected 38c EPS on revenue of $126.39 million.

NMX $129.06 -1.86% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2007 11:37:11 AM


DJ- Electric utility posts 4Q profit of $405 million, or $2.22 a share, as total revenue falls 10% to $4.59 billion. Excluding a gain from sale of power plants, earnings rise 24% to $1.08 a share. Wall Street expected EPS of 89c.

CEG $72.05 -0.40% ...

Keene Little : 1/31/2007 11:36:52 AM

ES is forming a potential ascending wedge but we're not getting bearish divergences yet to support that. That means the risk is for additional upside as we head into FOMC. What that means post-FOMC is still a coin toss here. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2007 11:35:53 AM


DJ- Hotel operator posts net income of $207 million, or 50c a share, as revenue more than doubles to $2.23 billion amid Hilton's $5.7 billion purchase of Hilton International. Wall Street expected EPS of 33c.

HLT $35.39 +2.87% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2007 11:34:44 AM


DJ- Media company reports net loss of $648 million, or $4.50 a share, due to write-down of assets at New England Media Group, which includes the Boston Globe. Earnings excluding items would have risen 39% to 61c.

NYT $23.58 +2.96% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2007 11:33:27 AM


DJ- Photo giant posts earnings of $16 million, or 6c a share, its first quarterly profit in two years. Excluding items, Kodak earns 59c, beating Wall Street estimates of 55c. Sales fall 9% to $3.82 billion.

EK $25.84 +1.25% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2007 11:32:17 AM


DJ- Net income falls 81% to $132.3 million, or 12c a share, on costs for plant closings and settlement of product-liability case. Sales rise 9% to $4.25 billion. Excluding charges, it earns 85c, beating expectations of 82c.

LLY $53.22 +0.92% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2007 11:31:07 AM


DJ- Aluminum producer earns $422 million, or $1.13 a share as revenue jumps 23% to $6.22 billion. Analysts expected EPS of $1.28 on revenue of $5.88 billion.

AL $50.43 -0.78% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2007 11:29:56 AM


DJ- Media giant earns $1.75 billion, or 44c a share, in 4Q, helped by sale of European unit and tax benefits. Revenue rises 8.2% to $12.47 billion. Excluding items, Time Warner earns 23c a share, a penny better than expected.

TWX $21.90 -0.63% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2007 11:26:47 AM


DJ- Airplane maker posts net income of $989 million, or $1.29 a share, which includes 13c in gains. Revenue jumps 26% to $17.54 billion. Analysts expected EPS of 98c on revenue of $16.48 billion. Shares rise 4% as firm boosts 2007 earnings forecast.

BA $89.77 +4.38% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2007 11:20:13 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2007 11:02:51 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Keene Little : 1/31/2007 11:01:53 AM

The techs have been consolidating near their lows for the past 3 days and some internal Fibs for the move point to NDX 1789-1790 (near NQ 1800) for a potential high if it can push up to there today. The sharp rally off this morning's low looks like it could be the leg to complete the consolidation and then set up the next decline.

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2007 10:58:19 AM

USO $47.35 -0.02% ... probes WEEKLY R1 ($47.34) ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2007 10:54:12 AM

Bullish swing trade raise stop alert

For the 1/2 position in the US Oil Fund (AMEX:USO) $47.08 -0.59% ... to $46.44.

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2007 10:46:14 AM

US Oil Fund (USO) $47.03 -0.69% ...

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2007 10:44:26 AM

EIA: Percent Utilization of Refinery Operable Capacity (%) 87.06%; Down from prior week's 87.38%.

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2007 10:43:01 AM

EIA: Weekly Refinery Operable Capacity unchanged at 17.397 million BPD

Keene Little : 1/31/2007 10:42:34 AM

The DOW, being the stronger index today, has rallied up to the top of a potential bear flag for price action since last Friday's low. It has also achieved two equal legs up at 12573. Be careful if long as this could cap off the bounce attempt. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2007 10:42:19 AM

EIA: Weekly Gross Inputs for Refiners down 56K BPD

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2007 10:39:49 AM

Morgan Stanley Cyclical Index (CYC.X) 925.41 +0.41% ... threatens 52-week high!

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2007 10:38:50 AM

EIA: SPR unchanged at 688.6 million barrels.

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2007 10:37:51 AM

EIA: Weekly Heating Oil Inventory down 3.43 million barrels.

Keene Little : 1/31/2007 10:37:28 AM

Looks like a maneuver to shoo the bears back into their caves.

Jane Fox : 1/31/2007 10:37:25 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Wal-Mart Stores Inc., Home Depot Inc. and other companies may have to wait longer to know the fate of their applications for industrial-loan-company charters after the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. meets on Wednesday, an analyst wrote.

Stanford Group Co. analyst Jaret Seiberg wrote in a research note Tuesday that an extension on a moratorium for chartering ILCs is "likely" but still a close call.

The FDIC meets at 2 p.m. Eastern on Wednesday to address the expiration of the moratorium, which began in July

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2007 10:36:47 AM

EIA: Weekly Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel Inventory up 17K

Jane Fox : 1/31/2007 10:36:23 AM

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) - Altria Group Inc. released the long-awaited details for its planned spinoff of Kraft Foods Inc. on Wednesday, and said that it will distribute the 89% of the company it owns to its shareholders on March 30.

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2007 10:35:54 AM

EIA: Weekly Diesel Invetory up 979K barrels.

Jane Fox : 1/31/2007 10:35:53 AM

* NYSE decliners outnumber advancers 17 to 12
* Nasdaq decliners outnumber advancers 16 to 10

Jane Fox : 1/31/2007 10:35:09 AM

AD line is now a neutral +2.17 and AD volume above 0 and climbing.

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2007 10:34:48 AM

EIA: Weekly Total Distillate Inventory down 2.64 million barrels.

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2007 10:34:15 AM

EIA: Weekly Gasoline Inventory up 3.8 million barrels.

Jane Fox : 1/31/2007 10:33:57 AM

The Rescue team has done a very nice job of turning the market around this morning. TICKS +1000

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2007 10:33:44 AM

EIA: Weekly Crude Oil Inventory up 2.68 million barrels.

Keene Little : 1/31/2007 10:31:29 AM

I wasn't watching bonds but just noticed a big reversal off this morning's early lows. Bonds are in the green (yields red). TNX and TYX are now testing their lows of the past 3 days. Normally this would look like the beginning of rotation into bonds so the danger for equity bulls is potential selling based on that. But price action in both on this FOMC day (even though the market is not expecting any changes) is hard to decipher.

Jane Fox : 1/31/2007 10:28:55 AM

TICKs +800

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2007 10:28:19 AM

MBA's Weekly Application Survey at this Link

Keene Little : 1/31/2007 10:25:45 AM

If ES manages to close its gap at 1434.25 watch what happens from there. It would be a good place to try shorting it.

Jane Fox : 1/31/2007 10:25:34 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The dollar fell slightly against major European currencies Wednesday, erasing early gains after a U.S. economic report showed business activity in the Chicago contracted this month.

The Chicago Purchasing Managers Index fell to 48.8 in January from 51.6 in December, suggesting a contraction in the regional manufacturing sector. Economists polled by MarketWatch were expecting a reading of 52. A reading above 50 would signal growth.

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2007 10:25:03 AM

Fed Activity Forecast / Analysis ... Chicago PMI should have FOMC doing nothing, leaving their target for Fed Funds at 5.25%. GDP Deflator also calm below 2.0%. Statement may have very slight bias toward ease.

Jane Fox : 1/31/2007 10:23:12 AM

Dateline WSj - Cigarette maker Altria announces plan to spin off Kraft Foods on March 30. Full story to follow shortly.

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2007 10:22:21 AM

Treasury's Ryan: For Now Sees Govt. Hitting Debt Limit In Fall

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2007 10:20:41 AM

Feb-June Fed Fund futures ... all currently 94.75. (100 - 94.75) = 5.25%

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2007 10:17:53 AM

Today's Economic Calendar (updated) from ForexFactory at this Link

Keene Little : 1/31/2007 10:11:58 AM

The market has stagnated already. Looking at the DOW, it being the strongest index this morning, I get the impression we'll see an effort to push a little higher. But I'm not sure it can pull the techs and small caps up with it.

Jane Fox : 1/31/2007 10:08:27 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - HFF Inc. and Employers Holdings priced above their ranges as the likely sparklers among four deals debuting on Wednesday, the busiest IPO day so far in 2007.

HFF and Employers Holdings offer Wall Street access to growing profits from financial-related businesses - one from real estate financing and the other in insurance.

Duncan Energy Partners and Animal Health also priced their IPOs as the new-issues market finishes out January with a flash of heat.

Employers Holdings (EIG) steps out as the day's richest deal, with 26.75 million shares priced at $17 to raise $455 million. The IPO opened at $20 and fell to $19.63 in the open market for a gain of about 16%.

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2007 10:06:14 AM

US Construction Spending -0.4% In Dec; Consensus Unch%

DJ- U.S. construction spending unexpectedly fell during December as rising outlays for commercial projects were offset by the steady plunge of the housing sector.

Total spending decreased 0.4% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1.178 trillion, the Commerce Department said Wednesday. Spending rose by 0.1% in November, revised from a previously reported 0.2% decline.

Wall Street had been expecting no change in December spending.

Residential construction spending in December decreased by 1.6% to $591.06 billion. Residential spending tumbled a revised 1.4% in November; originally, November residential outlays were estimated down 1.6%.

Non-residential private construction spending rose by 0.8% in December. Outlays for factories and schools climbed, while spending dropped on communication facilities. November spending rose 1.8%, revised from a previously reported 1.2% advance.

Private-sector construction spending decreased by 0.8% to $896.77 billion in December. November spending declined by 0.5%, revised from a previously reported 0.6% drop.

Government construction spending increased 0.6% to $280.89 billion in December. Public spending increased 2.1% in November; originally, November government outlays were estimated rising 1.0%. December federal government construction outlays dropped 6.4%, but state and local spending - much larger than federal spending in dollars - increased by 1.2% to $261.77 billion.

Jane Fox : 1/31/2007 10:05:53 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Spending on private residential construction projects fell for the ninth consecutive month in December, pushing total construction outlays down by 0.4% to $1.18 billion, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday.

The pace of spending was lower than the 0.1% increase expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch. However, November's outlays were revised higher to a 0.1% gain from a 0.2% decline previously.

For all of 2006, construction outlays were up 4.8%, the smallest gain since 2002. Compared with December 2005, however, outlays in December 2006 were down 1.4%. The figures are not adjusted for price changes.

Jane Fox : 1/31/2007 10:04:33 AM

Your highest odds trade is short. Link

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2007 10:03:04 AM

SanDisk (SNDK) $39.14 -8.61% ... DDX.X component.

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2007 10:02:11 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 1/31/2007 9:58:38 AM

TICKS have been quite neutral this morning printing between +600 and -500.

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2007 9:54:07 AM

Particle Drilling Tech. (PDRT) $3.99 +13.67% ... Upped to "outperform" at Morgan Keegan.

Jane Fox : 1/31/2007 9:53:15 AM

My goodness gracious Gold just spiked up to 655.00.

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2007 9:50:40 AM

Russian Prelim 2006 GDP Growth Estimated At 6.7%

DJ- Russia's economy grew 6.7% in 2006, according to preliminary estimates by the Federal Statistics Service, the news agency Interfax reported Wednesday.

That is up from an annual growth rate of 6.5% through the third quarter, and from 6.4% in 2005. It is a fraction lower than the 6.8% that was the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade's latest official forecast, however.

The construction, hospitality and financial services sectors all posted double-digit growth, while trade, transport and communications weren't far behind.

Growth in manufacturing heavy industries such as oil and gas wasn't as steep, however.

Indeed, growth in industrial output has been slowing steadily since the second quarter, when it peaked at 6.0%.

It rose 1.9% on the year in December.

Jeff Bailey : 1/31/2007 9:43:52 AM

Boeing (BA) $89.91 +4.54% ... Moves to #2 weighting for INDU/DIA/YM

Keene Little : 1/31/2007 9:42:44 AM

Boeing up nearly 5% this morning is the sole reason the DOW is outperforming the other indices.

Keene Little : 1/31/2007 9:39:38 AM

The RUT opened with a spike down. That's good for the bearish pattern. That's my little canary at the moment--as long as that stays below 799.30 I stay bearish here and now. A rise above 799.30 and I turn neutral to slightly bullish the rest of the market. Link

Jane Fox : 1/31/2007 9:37:14 AM

Once again the TRIN is not supporting the AD numbers in that it is a bullish 0.77 amd testing its PDL.

Jane Fox : 1/31/2007 9:35:59 AM

AD line is a bearish -804 and AD volume is falling. Bears have the ball this morning.

Jane Fox : 1/31/2007 9:34:42 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. private-sector employment rose by 152,000 in January, according to the ADP employment report released Wednesday.

"The acceleration of employment in January suggests that the economy remained on solid footing heading into the new year," said Joel Prakken, chairman of Macroeconomic Advisers, the economic firm that computes the number of jobs added based on anonymous payroll data supplied by Automatic Data Processing Inc.

Adding an estimated 15,000 or so additional government jobs that aren't included in the ADP index, the report suggests nonfarm payrolls likely rose by about 167,000 in January, relatively close to the median forecast of 150,000 in a MarketWatch survey.

Jane Fox : 1/31/2007 9:32:58 AM

I am bearish ER under 798.70 which happens to be the yearly open, the monthly open and the overnight low.

Keene Little : 1/31/2007 9:17:48 AM

Bonds sold off on the GDP and CPI numbers--the chances of the Fed lowering rates gets more remote with each passing day and the bond market has been reflecting that over the past several months. After selling off overnight to a low around 6:00 AM again, ES and NQ have recovered about half of their overnight loss while YM had managed to recover most of its loss before pulling back slightly after the 8:30 numbers.

It looks like an effort to get the futures back to even before the open in hopes no on noticed. A test of the overnight lows would be a test of yesterday afternoon's lows and that will be an important test for the bull/bear debate here, especially since I had commented at the end of the day yesterday that the charts were set up for a decline and now it just needs to happen.

Jane Fox : 1/31/2007 9:17:11 AM

Well look at what the bond market thought of the GDP data, not good. Although I must admit yesterday's anemic bond market does make this overnight move look a lot more dramatic than it actually is, you get the picture, bonds sold off on the GDP news.

Gold does not react to economic news, at least directly, so its sell off was due to the fact (at least partly) to the strength in the $. The fact that oil retained its PDH overnight should have held up gold more so but the relationship between these two needs to be observed on a daily basis (I watch this relationship on a weekly chart) although you can sometimes see it on the 20 minute chart. Link

Jane Fox : 1/31/2007 9:04:58 AM

Well the GDP data certainly did put the booster rockets under the markets but not one of them were able to regain their respective PDH. Overnight both YM and NQ tested their PDLs and although YM was able to regain some of that loss with the GDP rally, NQ was not.

Since we have had such a nice move overnight and intraday we will be in a wait mode for the FED, I don't expect many trading opportunities today, at least until 2:15 and then only for those brave enough to trade a FED announcement. I'm not. Link

Jane Fox : 1/31/2007 8:50:41 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The costs of employing a worker in the United States moderated in the fourth quarter, the Labor Department reported Wednesday.

Employment costs rose 0.8% in the fourth quarter, down from a 1.0% gain in the third quarter. This is the slowest pace since the first quarter of last year.

Wage costs increased 0.8% in the fourth quarter, also the slowest pace since Q1 2006. Benefit costs rose 1.1%.

The increase in the employment costs index was below expectations of Wall Street economists surveyed by MarketWatch, who forecast a 1.0% gain.

Jane Fox : 1/31/2007 8:48:27 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The U.S. economy shook off a summer slump and surged ahead at a faster-than-expected 3.5% annual growth rate in the fourth quarter, the Commerce Department estimated Wednesday.

Fed by robust consumer spending, a drop in energy prices and big turnaround in the trade balance, the economy notched its highest growth in a year, offsetting the drag of the weak housing and auto sectors.

The 3.5% growth rate was much stronger than the 2% recorded in the third quarter, and handily beat the 3% expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch.

Consumer prices fell 0.8% annualized in the quarter, the first quarterly decline in 45 years and the biggest drop in 52 years.

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