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Keene Little : 2/5/2007 2:09:25 AM

I haven't been able to update the shorter term charts to match the ones I just posted for the NDX but I wanted to show the DOW and SPX 15-min charts before trading starts on Monday. They both have very similar patterns and both suggest Friday's consolidation should lead to a continuation higher on Monday but one more push higher could do it. Upside targets are DOW 12707 and SPX 1453, and then 12750 and 1457.
DOW: Link
SPX: Link

The longer term upside target for SPX is in the 1452-1455 range so these Fib projections on different time frames are coming together and it looks like we're close. Again, I wouldn't want to take the chance with "one more new high" since we might not get it. If we do, it could set up a very nice short play.

Keene Little : 2/5/2007 1:44:01 AM

I've been trying to figure out a way to present different wave counts without making it too confusing (and not just after the fact when a price move requires a change in the count). The best way is to identify a bullish and a bearish wave count and then let the achievement of a price level help determine which count floats to the top as the preferred count. That way it should help identify which direction you might want to concentrate your trading. Please provide feedback if you find this helpful, confusing or any other comments.

I'll try to concentrate on a few indices and major stocks that are influencing the market. First up is the NDX. Your first reaction when seeing this daily chart will probably be some confusion but perhaps print it out and then make reference to it as I explain a couple of things and when you look at a closer view of each potential wave count: Link

The red price depiction shows the bearish wave count and says NDX topped out on January 16th. The current bounce should fail, either here or slighly higher at a Fib projection near 1827, and we'll see a continuation of the decline. The "Make" level for this count is 1763--a decline below that level puts us on track with this count. Until that price level is broken then it's entirely possible we'll see price works its way higher.

This 120-min chart shows a closer view of the bearish wave count: Link This shows the make or break level at 1763 which is needed to confirm the bearish wave count. If NDX instead rallies up through 1830 (it could pull back first and then rally up throught that level) then it would be time to switch to the bullish wave count: Link

There's a fairly wide spread between the make or break prices on this (1763 to 1830) and I'll be trying to identify moves earlier that support one count vs. the other. But for those who might be in spread postitions, or in longer term directional plays, these levels should provide some help in managing your plays. Again, please provide feedback as to how I might be able to make this more useful to you. Look for more of this on the other indices.

Keene Little : 2/5/2007 12:51:54 AM

Interesting Fib projection on the NYSE weekly chart. The wave count for the move up from 2002 shows a nice clean 5-wave move and that means the current move up from July 2006, as the 5th wave, will end the rally from 2002. Link

Wave-1 of the rally from 2002 is an "extended" wave (larger than wave-3) and when that happens it's very common to see wave-5 = 62% of wave-1. That's the projection I show at 9333.22. Friday's high was 9329.05. Close enough? I wouldn't want to be long the market any more.

Keene Little : 2/4/2007 10:25:19 PM

Monday's pivot tables: Link and Link

OI Technical Staff : 2/4/2007 9:59:59 PM

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