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Keene Little : 2/6/2007 10:12:39 PM

Wednesday's pivot tables: Link and Link

OI Technical Staff : 2/6/2007 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2007 8:34:17 PM

USD/CNY Central Parity Set Below USD/HKD Trading Band

USD/CNY Central Parity 7.7496 Vs. Tuesday OTC Close 7.7555.

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2007 8:30:13 PM

China PBOC Aims To Increase Yuan's Flexibility

DJ- A deputy governor of China's central bank has reiterated that the bank aims to steadily increase the yuan's flexibility this year, while paying attention to inflation pressures, the central bank-backed Financial News reported Wednesday.

The People's Bank of China will also continue a prudent monetary policy in 2007, said Deputy Governor Xiang Junbo during the bank's recent working conference on credit and the financial markets, according to the report.

Xiang also repeated previous comments by the central bank that it would strengthen liquidity management and reasonably control credit growth.

Marc Eckelberry : 2/6/2007 8:28:42 PM

Not much excitement for YM, but NQ takes off on CSCO. Frankly, it's safer to get out of any short now, but see if NQ can get above 1811.50, 20 DMA. Still resistance for now. YM R1 is at 12722, stop stays at 12725 for those who want to ride this out. I might update overnight.

Keene Little : 2/6/2007 6:55:18 PM

Here are some updated RUT charts showing the bull and bear wave counts. Based on the break above 800 it would appear there's some upside work to be done on this index. I show the bullish wave counts in green (dark green for the preferred bullish count and then light green for an alternative possibility). The two upside targets are just above 820 (after a pullback) and then 845. The bearish wave count shows only a minor new high and then start a decline. Daily chart: Link

The long consolidation since November makes it difficult to figure out where the consolidation (wave-4) ended and where the 5th wave started. The bearish wave count here says wave-5 started from the January 19th low and we only need a minor new high to finish this one off. That's reflected in this bearish count: Link

But if the bulls are going to rule for a little longer, even after a pullback, then the two bullish possibilities are shown a little closer here: Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2007 5:31:58 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2007 5:22:45 PM

Natural Gas futures holding above $7.00 for several days. Long time since that has been the case.

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2007 5:21:50 PM

March Crude Oil (cl07h) settled up $0.14, or +0.24% at $58.88

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2007 5:09:06 PM

That's looking like a "good call" from Goldman ... CSCO $28.46

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2007 5:05:24 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2007 4:55:10 PM

Navistar (NAV) ... NYSE Moves To Delist Company From Exhcange; Trading Suspension Set For 02/14/07; Appeal Planned.

Company Press Release Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2007 4:50:27 PM

Fed's Yellen: Says US Economy Growing Just Under Trend Rate

DJ- U.S. economic growth in most parts of the economy is doing well, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Janet Yellen said Tuesday. While "inflation is a little higher than I'd like" and should come down further, Yellen told an audience in Irvine, Calif., that the "economy continues to grow at quite a healthy, trend-like pace." The central banker said the Fed was also close to achieving its officially mandated goal, which is to promote maximum sustainable employment and contained inflation pressures, adding that the current jobless rate of 4.6% puts the economy "pretty close to full employment."

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2007 4:49:08 PM

Plum Creek Timber (PCL) $40.85 +1.06% ... boosting quarterly dividend 5% to $0.42/share.

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2007 4:46:07 PM

CSCO's CEO Sees FYQ3 Sales Growing 19%-20%

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2007 4:43:32 PM

QQQQ $44.05 ... $44.15 extended.

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2007 4:42:55 PM

Cisco (CSCO) $27.28 -0.83% ... connected to the upside at $27.44 now.

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2007 4:41:47 PM

Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) $27.76 +0.25% ... Earnings Press Release Link

Consensus was EPS of $0.24 on Revenue of $359.6M.

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2007 4:36:02 PM

Navistar (NAV) $46.74 +0.53% ... halted for trade. News pending.

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2007 4:33:59 PM

Pacific Sunwear (PSUN) $19.67 (unch) ... released for trade. $20.00 extended.

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2007 4:22:31 PM

Pacific Sunwear (PSUN) $19.67 (unch) ... halt should be lifted between 04:25-04:30 PM EST.

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2007 4:21:13 PM

Pacific Sunwear (PSUN) ... Form 8-K Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2007 4:18:38 PM

Pacific Sunwear (PSUN) $19.67 (unch) ... Halted with news pending.

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2007 4:17:39 PM

Nortel (NT) $25.93 -2.07% ... flat extended.

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2007 4:17:07 PM

Alcatel-Lucent (ALU) $12.85 +0.78% ... flat extended.

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2007 4:15:48 PM

Juniper Networks (JNPR) $18.63 +0.97% ... $18.60 extended.

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2007 4:14:21 PM

Intel Corp. (INTC) $21.31 +0.14% ... $21.28 extended.

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2007 4:13:31 PM

QQQQ $44.05 -0.15% ... $44.04 extended.

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2007 4:12:26 PM

Cisco Systems (CSCO) $27.28 -0.83% ... Earnings Press Release Link

$26.90 extended.

Keene Little : 2/6/2007 4:08:20 PM

Update on SPX 30-min chart--on track to a new high from here with an upside Fib target at 1453.38. I don't know if it'll be pretty much straight up or a lot of back and forth tomorrow but if we see price getting up there and some sell signals associated with it I'll be all over it for a ride back down. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2007 4:06:15 PM

eBay (EBAY) $32.85 +1.86% ... highest post-earning's close.

Jane Fox : 2/6/2007 4:00:47 PM

Dateline WSJ - WASHINGTON -- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke cautioned that widening inequality may make Americans "less willing to accept the dynamism. so essential to economic progress," but warned politicians to avoid responding by limiting the flexibility of labor markets or erecting barriers to international trade and investment.

Wiser responses, he said, would be to improve education and training and cushion the dislocations caused by technology and globalization, such as making health and pension benefits more portable and offering retraining and job-search assistance to displaced workers.

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2007 3:58:34 PM

US Commodities: Silver Hits 7-wk High; Gold, Copper Up

DJ- Gold futures closely eyed the moves of the oil market Tuesday at the New York Mercantile Exchange after easing from a high by the close. Most-active April gold settled up $2.60 at $658.70 a troy ounce. Earlier the contract traded as high as $663.70 an ounce. March silver settled up 11.5 cents at $13.675 an ounce after hitting a seven-week high of $13.88. Crude oil's failure to advance led to a sell-off in that market and subsequent easing of precious metals. April platinum settled $18.60 higher at $1,190.30 an ounce while March palladium settled $1.70 higher at $344.05. Platinum and palladium have been range-bound over the past month, showing weaker gains when compared to gold and silver in the same period, noted Neal Ryan of Blanchard Economic Research. London afternoon gold traded at $653.25 an ounce versus $649.40 Monday. U.S. spot gold at 2:25 p.m. ET traded at $653.25 an ounce, up $4.80. The most-active March copper contract settled up 8 cents to settle at $2.4965 per pound. "It's a combination of things," said Dave Meger, senior metals analyst with Alaron Trading. "We had continued stock declines at the London Metal Exchange. There was also a decent amount of physical demand down around the $2.40 mark." March copper in a sell-off on Friday had tumbled as far as $2.3850, its weakest level in roughly 10 months, and was as soft as $2.4050 on Monday before recovering. Front-month March light, sweet crude contract settled up 14 cents at $58.88 a barrel. March heating oil settled up 1.53 cents at $1.6909 a gallon. Front month March reformulated gasoline blendstock for oxygen blending, or RBOB, settled up 1.26 cents at $1.5725 a gallon. March natural gas settled down 1.8 cents at $7.616 per million British thermal units. On the New York Board of Trade, March Arabica coffee futures settled down 0.10 cent at $1.1650 a pound, with May off 0.10 cent at $1.1965. Most-active March cocoa settled up $19 at $1,653 per metric ton. Futures on raw sugar in foreign ports for March settled down 0.29 cent at 10.19 cents a pound, with May off 0.32 cent at 10.36 cents On the Chicago Board of Trade, March corn ended 5 1/2 cents lower at $3.96 1/2 per bushel, and December finished 3 1/2 cents lower at $3.91 1/2. March soybeans closed 1 1/4 cents lower at $7.38 3/4 per bushel, and May soybeans ended 2 1/4 cents lower at $7.54 1/4. March wheat fell 2 3/4 cents to $4.58 1/2 per bushel.

Jane Fox : 2/6/2007 3:54:49 PM

Economic Reports for tomorrow include:

8:30a.m. 4Q Non-Farm Labor Productivity, prelim. Expected: +1.5%. Previous: +0.2%.

8:30a.m. 4Q Unit Labor Costs, prelim. Expected: +2.0%. Previous: +2.3%.

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2007 3:54:45 PM

TSN $18.25 +0.49% ... going one way.

ADM -1.73% and CAG -0.19% going the other.

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2007 3:51:18 PM

That looks like a "good tick" to $15.16 in SIL this morning.

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2007 3:50:26 PM

Apex Silver (SIL) $14.34 -2.38% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2007 3:49:47 PM

Coeur D Alene Mines (CDE) $4.35 -0.68% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2007 3:48:20 PM

Bolivian Miners Protest In Capital Over Proposed Tax Hike

DJ (partial) - More than 20,000 miners from across Bolivia marched into La Paz Tuesday, tossing bits of dynamite that sent booming explosions echoing through the streets in a protest of President Evo Morales' plans for a steep hike in mining taxes. The hard-hatted miners whistled and chanted as they filed through the center of the capital city in the protest against the tax proposal they say would unfairly burden hundreds of small independent miners' cooperatives.

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2007 3:38:08 PM

Pacholder High Yield (PHF) $10.20 +0.19% ... Its 52-week high was $10.30 on 09/25/06.

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2007 3:37:00 PM

RUT.X 809.28 +0.32% ... RUT.X and ER traders that may be using a retracement from the 07/21/06 low close to Friday's high close.

By now you've asked yourself "why" regarding the 11/02/06 and the two (11/28/06 and 01/09/07) lows that "don't make sense."

Drag up your 0% to 828.

Keene Little : 2/6/2007 3:30:28 PM

Getting some quick feedback, thanks. Seems I'm not alone in being confused by the market (or my charts). Smile. Once I get the format down and start zeroing in on the moves, such as with the 30-min charts, then that should be more helpful in identifying some day trades. But first I want to be sure we're looking at the same map and we all know where north is. Keep letting me know what's working and what's not working, and thanks.

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2007 3:30:19 PM

Pulte Homes Grants Both Chairman, CEO Stock Valued at $3.44M

DJ- Pulte Homes Inc. (PHM) granted stock valued at $3.44 million to President and Chief Executive Richard J. Dugas Jr., and it granted the same amount to Chairman William J. Pulte, according to regulatory filings Tuesday. Dugas and Pulte each received 100,000 common shares on Monday, according to two filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Based on that day's closing price of $34.40 a share, the awards would be worth $3.44 million each.

PHM $34.17 -0.66% Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2007 3:26:42 PM

General Motors (GM) alert $33.52 +2.47% ... moves back above 61.8% retracement of 10/24/06 to recent 11/30/06 close.

Jane Fox : 2/6/2007 3:26:04 PM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - The Securities and Exchange Commission said Tuesday that it is examining dealings between some of Wall Street's biggest brokerages and hedge funds, looking for suspicious trading patterns that may suggest insider dealing.

At issue are big orders made by institutional investors. Regulators suspect that big Wall Street banks may be tipping hedge funds about the orders in a bid to curry favor of those firms. Big orders can move a stock price allowing traders to make risk free bets when they know such an order is coming.

A spokesman for the SEC confirmed that the commission is investigating the industry but declined to say what firms are being targeted and what methods are being used. Officials at Morgan Stanley (MS) and UBS (UBS) and Merrill Lynch & Co. (MER) may also be targets, according to media reports

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2007 3:23:09 PM

Venezuelan Shares End Sharply Higher On Demand For CANTV Stock

DJ- Venezuelan shares closed sharply higher Tuesday as the stock of the country's top telecommunications company posted a surprise recovery. The Caracas Stock Exchange's IBC index ended at 46,409.16, up 4.8% from the previous day's close. Shares in CA Nacional Telefonos de Venezuela (VNT), or CANTV, gained 6.4% to close at 9,150 bolivars per share. The gain came roughly a day after investors bought almost 6 million of CANTV's U.S.-traded American Depositary Receipts, or 6% of the company, traders noted. Market observers said they believe local investors are simply following the ADRs' lead. A group of socialist workers at CANTV denounced the sale of large blocks of ADRs overseas as an attempt by speculators to destabilize President Hugo Chavez's nationalization plans. Chavez announced last month he plans to nationalize CANTV as well as companies in the electric power and natural gas industries. For some traders, however, higher CANTV share prices mean investors now believe Chavez will likely pay a fair price for these shares. "This is one of those situations where no news is good news," said Xavier Vegas, a trader at local brokerage Activalores. Although Chavez has vowed to nationalize the company, he notes, he has yet to seize it or make a radical move to take control of the board.

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2007 3:14:43 PM

US Treasury Says Net $2.57 Billion Treasury's Stripped in January

DJ- There was a net stripping of $2.57 billion of U.S. Treasurys in January, the Treasury Department said Tuesday. That followed a net reconstitution of $3.46 billion in December and a net stripping of $937.15 million in November. By stripping the interest payment from the principal payment on outstanding Treasury securities, zero-coupon Treasurys are created. To reassemble, or reconstitute, a security, a financial institution or securities broker must obtain the appropriate principal component and all related unmatured interest components for the security being reconstituted.

(see also) Friday's 04:22:24 PM Post regarding Jumbo CDs.

Keene Little : 2/6/2007 3:14:06 PM

I'm going to be working up charts for the RUT, DOW and an update GOOG before the end of the day for those who might be interested in those.

Keene Little : 2/6/2007 3:11:48 PM

What I'm attempting to do with these charts is provide a roadmap. Once price tells me which route to take then we can focus on that wave count and dial into a shorter time frame and follow it to the next fork in the road. In this way I'm hoping to help you identify potential longer term trades. I know a lot of you are doing spread trades for example, perhaps following Parnos' trades. With the make or break levels that I'm trying to identify I'm hoping you'll be able to better manage your trades.

Again, send me some feedback whether this is too confusing and non-helpful (you won't hurt my feelings) or any suggestions as to how to make it more useful. So far I'm not getting much feedback so fire away as this is a fair amount of work and if it's not useful I'll go back to calling all the little squiggles during the day. You can use my email address at at Support so as not to clog up the support line. Thanks.

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2007 3:10:27 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 2/6/2007 3:06:55 PM

I cleaned CME up a little--the daily chart I posted earlier confused even me. It's still a little confusing with the multiple possibilities here and each one could see a fairly large move. Again, between 530 and 590 it could be full of whipsaws so be careful if you want to try this one.
Daily: Link
Bullish 120-min: Link
Bearish 120-min: Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2007 3:02:46 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Keene Little : 2/6/2007 2:59:07 PM

Next up is SPX. The important levels for this one are 1455 and 1417. A break down below 1440 would be a heads up that something more bearish is happening and a break below 1430, the uptrend line from November would be a stronger sell signal but it takes a break below 1417 to confirm the wave count has turned to a bearish one. A rally above 1455 would suggest at least a short term bullish pattern for the potential to rally a little further over the next week or two.
Daily: Link
Bearish 120-min: Link
Bullish 120-min: Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2007 2:55:37 PM

Brazil's Petrobras Production Buys 40% Of Senegal Oil Block

DJ- Brazilian state-run oil firm Petroleo Brasileiro SA (PBR), or Petrobras, said Tuesday it bought a 40% stake in the Rufisque Profond block off the coast of Senegal. Petrobras didn't reveal how much it paid for the stake, which it acquired from Edison Spa (EDN.MI), which previously had a 95% stake in the block. Senegal's state-oil firm, Petrosen, holds another 5%. The block is located at a water depth between 150 and 3,000 meters and covers an area of 7,294 square kilometers, Petrobras said in a statement. Petrobras hopes to find light grade oil of between 30 and 40 degrees of API in the area. The Brazilian oil firm already is exploring for oil in Nigeria and produces in Angola.

PBR $98.42 -0.97% Link ...

Keene Little : 2/6/2007 2:52:27 PM

A couple of updated daily and bullish/bearish wave counts coming up. First up is for NDX which is threatening to break down but with the choppy price action the past few days leaves it somewhat up in the air. The important level to the downside is a break below 1763. Until that happens, which would be bearish, there's still the possibility we'll see NDX work its way higher.
Daily: Link
Bullish 120-min: Link
Bearish 120-min: Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2007 2:41:39 PM

I don't know how an individual "fundamental" trader/investor keeps up with it all.

Do you?

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2007 2:41:11 PM

GM's Economist: "Weak" Yen Adds Up To $10K In US Vehicle Cost

DJ (partial) - The chief economist of General Motors Corp. (GM) Tuesday said that the yen's current weakness is resulting in a considerable cost disadvantage for Detroit's Big Three auto makers by encouraging a rising tide of imports from Japan to the U.S. GM Chief Economist Mustafa Mohatarem said the company and its Detroit counterparts suffer from a per-vehicle cost disadvantage ranging from $4,000 for some smaller passenger cars built in Asia, to as much as $9,000 to $10,000 on upper end luxury cars that is purely related to the yen's current weakness.

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2007 2:35:05 PM

Cisco (CSCO) $27.37 -0.50% ... earnings after the close.

Consensus is for EPS of $0.31 on Revenue of $8.28B

Year-ago comps were $0.25 on Revenue of $6.63B.

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2007 2:31:58 PM

Corning (GLW) $22.06 +3.27% ... probes its 200-day SMA.

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2007 2:29:42 PM

10-year Yield ($TNX.X) down 4.0 bp at 4.768%. Did kiss its WEEKLY S1.

Jane Fox : 2/6/2007 2:28:44 PM

TRIN is a bearish 1.26 and VIX is falling but not to new daily lows so I will not be long here even though the is making new daily highs.

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2007 2:24:15 PM

Hmmmm .... A "Tyco company" Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2007 2:22:57 PM

I was wondering the same thing ... "where in the heck is Grinnell?"

Iowa!

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2007 2:21:00 PM

US BioEnergy, Big River Resources Begin Site Work On Ethanol Plant Near Grinnell

USBE $13.04 (unch) Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2007 2:14:40 PM

Venezuela's January Auto Sales up 40% On Higher Demand

Venezuela's January automobile sales rose 40.3% year on year, as a growing economy pushed Venezuelans to demand more cars, particularly imported models. Venezuela's automobile industry sold 28,619 units last month, an indication that car sales will continue to climb this year, the Cavenez automobile chamber reported Tuesday. Car sales have posted higher numbers for the past two years as the economy experienced robust growth. The oil-rich Andean economy managed to grow 10.3% last year on the back of heavy government spending. Purchases of imported cars made up 73% in January, figures show. Cars imported from non-Adean countries climbed to 18,361, according to Cavenez. Traditionally, cars assembled in Venezuela tend to make up the bulk of sales, but that changed over the past year as the country's economy continued to post strong growth numbers. In times of oil wealth, Venezuelans are known to demand more luxury goods such as foreign cars. Demand for locally assembled cars also increased with help from a special tax program that exempts vehicles deemed "family cars" from the value added tax. Companies such as General Motors Co. (GM) and Ford Motors Co. (F) manufacture vehicles in Venezuela that fall under this tax exemption. Most of the vehicles that receive the tax break are small sedan-type cars geared to those with limited spending power. Windfall oil revenue has allowed the government to increase spending which in turn has resulted in high levels of consumption.

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2007 2:12:02 PM

Chile's Peso Closes At Weakest Level vs. Dollar Since June

DJ- The Chilean peso closed Tuesday at its weakest level against the dollar since June 28. The peso ended at CLP548.60 to the dollar from CLP547.60 to the dollar after trading in a narrow CLP546.20-CLP548.60 range. At 1500 GMT - about an hour before the session ended - the peso traded at CLP547.45, the central bank reported. The peso declined in a late sell-off irrespective of the stabilization of copper prices in London trading that helped the peso to gains early, dealers said. That sets the stage for a challenge of its CLP549.00 technical support level in upcoming trading, they added. The fall in world copper prices from last year's peak has translated into a weaker peso since late 2006. Chile is the world's biggest copper producer and exporter. The peso has trailed other Latin American currencies, which have rallied against the dollar in recent trading. Cheaper copper, the recent rise in crude oil prices and January's surprise rate cut combined to weaken the peso, Barclays Capital analysts said. While some of these factors may revert in the near-term and the central bank likely won't cut rates in the imminent future, "it still seems early to recommend selling dollars" in favor of pesos, they added. On the local bond market, yields on the long end of the curve ended slightly lower amid low volume trading, traders said. The yield on the inflation-indexed five-year BCUs closed unchanged at 2.51%. The yield on the 10-year BCUs closed at 2.73%, from 2.75% Monday.

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2007 2:10:31 PM

DJ- Brazilian Stocks Narrow Losses On Bernanke Speech

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2007 2:03:18 PM

RUT.X +3.82% last 20 days

QQQQ -3.11% last 20 days.

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2007 1:52:53 PM

VXN.X 16.99 +0.89% .... Options market makers are pretty proud of the eBay calls right now aren't they?

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2007 1:52:11 PM

On Jan. 25th at approx 10:11:51, the VXN.X was rising at 17.00.

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2007 1:47:28 PM

The XBA-GZ are currently $3.30 x $3.40.

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2007 1:46:30 PM

The YEU-AG are currently $3.70 x $3.90

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2007 1:45:25 PM

The YEU-AZ are currently $4.90 x $5.10 and EBAY is $32.76

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2007 1:43:04 PM

eBay Options Montage from 01/25/07 Screen Capture when stock was $33.46 at this Link

Jane Fox : 2/6/2007 1:37:05 PM

TICKS +1000 obviously the rescue team has arrived. Sorry but I was doing other things and did not alert you to the change in the internals. My bad!

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2007 1:35:40 PM

The TLT-CJ have traded 57 contracts with low/high $0.55/$0.80.

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2007 1:35:04 PM

TLT Options Montage found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2007 1:32:59 PM

Water starting to rise ... eBay (EBAY) $32.74 +1.51% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2007 1:29:35 PM

TLT $87.74 +0.48% ... session low/high marked by WEEKLY Pivot ($87.18) and WEEKLY R1 ($87.77)

Monitoring the TLT March $88 Calls (TLT-CJ) with CBOT bidding $0.75 and offer $0.85.

Potential for covered calls against long position. Want the spike higher in price with WEEKLY R2 $88.34.

Keene Little : 2/6/2007 1:17:20 PM

If this drops back down now, a drop through SPX 1443 would look bearish, and a drop through 1440 would go a long way towards confirming we've put in a high. That would tell me I should start playing the short side of the market more aggressively. But to keep things in perspective, and to prevent anyone from betting the farm on the short side I want to show another possibility for what could play out this month. I'll call this my bullish wave count for SPX. Link

The ascending wedge, by starting after the pullback into the end of November, could get a pullback that then leads to another new high before it's finished. The critical line in the sand is the uptrend line from the end of November, currently near 1425, with confirmation by a break below 1417 (hence the "bomb" at 1417 where the pattern would clearly turn more bearish instead of having any bullish potential left).

If we get a decline started from here I'd play it short down to that uptrend line and then we'd watch to see what sets up from there. But first we need to get a decline going, either from here or after a new high tomorrow/Thursday.

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2007 1:16:53 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 2/6/2007 1:08:31 PM

Getting a nice pop higher and now we've got a 3-wave bounce off the low. This is when a turn back down to a new low would be bearish, and shortable. But until then I see upside potential to a new high coming.

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2007 1:05:31 PM

That's about "right" for 10-years difference. (eyeballing)

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2007 1:05:01 PM

iShares Lehman 20-year (AMEX:TLT) $87.74 +0.48% ... its 21-day SMA at $87.83

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2007 1:04:05 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2007 1:03:08 PM

30-year YIELD ($TYX.X) 48.78, or 4.878%. Testing its rising 21-day SMA.

Marc Eckelberry : 2/6/2007 12:53:22 PM

MSFT and GOOG drop yesterday below respective option support areas was also a heads up.

Marc Eckelberry : 2/6/2007 12:52:33 PM

It would not be the first time we get a kiss goodbye high during the pre-open session. In fact, it is the most common scenario with all the hedge funds playing ES.

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2007 12:50:56 PM

Western Digital (WDC) $18.83 -1.87% ... slips below its 200-day SMA ($19.00) for first time since rising above on 11/08/06.

Marc Eckelberry : 2/6/2007 12:51:25 PM

Equity pc ratio at a massively optimistic .51. Folks are wildly buying calls while technicals deteriorate in techs. More pain coming.
It also seems ES monthly R1 was the signal to get out.

Keene Little : 2/6/2007 12:45:46 PM

Just to keep the slightly larger picture in perspective, this SPX 120-min chart shows price action since October and what looks like an ascending wedge for price action since November. The choppy price action inside these wedges makes it very difficult to determine what price will do next and we've seen it morph into an extension higher several times now, and could do it again after pulling back. Link

So far today SPX has found support at the top of the wedge which it broke above last Thursday. Another potential sell signal would be a drop back down under that trend line, so below 1443. Ideally the pattern calls for another small move higher before tipping over but that "one more new high" is often a no-show (could have been today's high). Therefore bulls need to be extra cautious now--keep your stops tight.

Marc Eckelberry : 2/6/2007 12:40:24 PM

The one hedge trade I would recommend is if NQ hits 1781/1782, take a long there with a tight stop and see who wins. At worst, if NQ bounces from weekly S1, you will lower your cost on the YM entry. But techs are in trouble with COMP below 2468.

Marc Eckelberry : 2/6/2007 12:38:31 PM

YM short 12698, lower stop to 12723.
We are shooting for 12585, so no need to get involved in the noise.

Marc Eckelberry : 2/6/2007 12:37:21 PM

Jane, in response to your 11:18:12 AM post, this is what's hot, if you hae a wireless connection. No need to burn DVD's: Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2007 12:36:52 PM

Libya's Oil Head: March OPEC Output Cut Hinges On Price Trend

DJ- The head of Libya's oil industry said Tuesday the direction of oil prices will dictate OPEC's stance on whether it needs to cut output again at its March meeting.

Speaking to Dow Jones Newswires by telephone from Tripoli, Shokri Ghanem said there is still some concern amongst the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries that oil stocks are too high.

But he said "the key to what we decide to do then will be the price of oil."

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2007 12:26:57 PM

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) $15.24 -2.30% ... notable new 52-weeker.

Keene Little : 2/6/2007 12:25:02 PM

If we assume for the moment that this mornng's pullback has finished the 4th wave correction from Friday's high, and project wave-5 from today's low at SPX 1443.40, we get upside Fib targets for the end of the rally at 1449.57 (wave-5 = 62% of wave-1), which would be a truncated finish, and then 1453.38 (where wave-5 = wave-1). Once again, if we get a bounce here and then a continuation lower, especially with a break down through 1440, then it will look like today's high could have been it for the rally. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2007 12:23:44 PM

American Home Owners Expected to Spend A Lot of Money on Major Home Improvements In Next Few Years

DJ- Research and Markets () has announced the addition of Housewares TrendTracker 2007 to their offering.

Housewares TrendTracker 2007 provides in-depth information on the trends that will be impacting the home goods and housewares industries over the next several years.

According to our 6th Annual Housewares TrendTracker report, American home owners will be spending a lot of money on major home improvements, remodeling, and redecorating projects over the next couple of years. Not only will they be spending money on their homes, they will also be spending more time in their homes. They will be eating at home more often, spending more time on house cleaning, and doing more entertaining in front of their new wall-mounted flat screen televisions.

Housewares TrendTracker 2007 is based on consumer research conducted by the author with the company's proprietary 100-member panel of HomeTrend Influentials (HIPsters). The report identifies the changes members of the HomeTrend Influentials Panel are making in their home-based activities and sheds light on emerging home. HIPsters are the bellwether for the mainstream population because they pick up on new home-related trends and embrace new home goods much sooner than the rest of the U.S. population. If HomeTrend Influentials embrace a new trend, very likely it will be embraced by mainstream Americans within a couple of years. If HIPsters reject a new trend, very likely the trend will not be embraced by mainstream Americans either.

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2007 12:19:31 PM

EIA: Apr-Sep Retail Gasoline Seen At $2.42, -12C From Jan Rpt

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2007 12:16:44 PM

EIA: Global Q1 Oil Use Seen -100,000 B/D Vs. Jan Estimate

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2007 12:15:50 PM

EIA:OPEC 10 Jan Output 26.77M B/D, Dn 110,000 B/D Vs. Dec

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2007 12:15:03 PM

EIA: 1Q Retail Heat Oil Seen At $2.13, Dn 11C From Jan Rpt

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2007 12:14:03 PM

EIA: 2008 WTI Crude Forecast At $62.58, Dn $2 From Jan Report

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2007 12:12:54 PM

EIA: US Q1 Oil Use Revised -0.6% Vs. Jan at 20.65M B/D

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2007 12:11:16 PM

CNOOC (CEO) $84.73 -0.05% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2007 12:10:56 PM

PetroChina (PTR) $123.62 -0.33% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2007 12:10:35 PM

US Oil Fund (USO) $49.35 +0.50% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2007 12:10:08 PM

EIA: China's Q1 Oil Use Seen at 7.6M B/D, +5.6% Vs. Year Ago

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2007 12:06:27 PM

Natl. Oilwell CEO: Shale, Coalbed Methane Keeping U.S. Market Afloat

DJ- Unconventional gas plays, which have helped shore up North American production, will go global in the next few years, National Oilwell Varco Inc. (NOV) chief executive Pete Miller said Tuesday.

Natural gas pulled from shale, coal seams and other difficult formations has gained an increasing share of U.S. and Canadian production as older fields mature. That trend will continue in 2007, but even some producing countries with less-depleted conventional reserves will take an interest in the tougher-to-access formations, Miller said in a conference call with analysts.

"These types of plays are all over the world," he said, with the greatest growth expected in Russia, Argentina and the Middle East. "(Producers) will learn them here, then transport these technologies overseas."

Houston-based National Oilwell saw its fourth-quarter earnings more than double, hitting $239 million, or $1.35 a share, compared with an average analysts' estimate of $1.06 a share, according to Thomson Financial.

National Oilwell, which develops and builds parts used in oil and gas production, is increasingly moving overseas as the North American market matures, Miller said.

He said low natural gas prices brought on by warm weather earlier this winter could lead to a softening in North American drilling, but that the market is "very rapidly self-correcting."

For example, the Barnett and Fayetteville shale plays, two massive unconventional gas fields spanning Texas, Oklahoma and Arkansas, will soak up many of the rigs leaving maturing fields along the Gulf of Mexico, Miller said.

"We think unconventional plays will be where it's at," he said.

Keene Little : 2/6/2007 12:03:12 PM

We've got what looks like an impulsive move down from this morning's high. What I'll be watching for now is whether it's wave-c of an a-b-c 4th wave pullback (instead of the triangle a-b-c-d-e that I showed most recently), since c-waves are impulsive, or the start of something bigger to the downside.

The way we'll know is what happens after the next bounce. If it bounces and then proceeds to another new low then there's a real good chance we put in the final high this morning. But if we bounce, pull back and then continue higher again then there's a good chance we'll be into the 5th wave up (and I'll get some upside projections for it). It's too early to tell which will play out from here.

Jane Fox : 2/6/2007 12:01:04 PM

YM is now testing its PDL. ES has broken its PDL but not by much. ER and NQ are both trading well below their PDLs.

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2007 11:58:12 AM

$TYX.X and a 0.25 box chart at this Link ... 48.25-48.50 (4.825-4.850%) will be a near-term technical support level for the long bond.

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2007 11:51:44 AM

30-year Yield ($TYX.X) slips below the 4.900% level. Dow 1.5 bp at 4.895%.

TLT $87.51 +0.21%

Jane Fox : 2/6/2007 11:49:12 AM

Hopefully no one has been caught long.

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2007 11:39:41 AM

I see our "old friend" Hanover Compressor (HC) $22.84 -0.26% got taken out by Universal Compression (UCO) $69.69 -1.98% yesterday. Both stocks surged on the news.

Jane Fox : 2/6/2007 11:37:00 AM

The best odds for trading right now is short. Who knows it may change but right now the internals are saying short or sell the rallies. This of course does not mean you can trade without a stop because we are playing the odds and are not stopping for guarantees.

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2007 11:32:42 AM

Oil Service Bullish % (BPOILS) reversed back up to "bull confirmed" status at the conclusion of yesterday's trade.

Keene Little : 2/6/2007 11:24:09 AM

Back to SPX, if the leg down from this morning's high, which is so far just a 3-wave move, as it should be for wave-e in this a-b-c-d-e 4th wave, it should find support around 1445 (ES 1448.50) to finish the pullback correction and then start the next rally leg (wave-5). If SPX 1445 gives way then the next downside Fib target for support is closer to 1441 (ES 1445).

SPX holding at 1445 and then rallying is my preferred count at the moment: Link

Jane Fox : 2/6/2007 11:22:12 AM

Bernanke will discuss economic well-being in Omaha in the early afternoon. His speech is unlikely to move the bond market, but will be followed nonetheless.

Moskow will speak at 1 p.m. Eastern and Yellen will review the Asian financial crisis of the late 1990s at 3.30 p.m. Eastern.

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2007 11:21:44 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List found at this Link

Jane Fox : 2/6/2007 11:21:10 AM

* Paulson: U.S. Treasurys have 'great liquidity' ( no kidding!!!!!!)
* Paulson: Not worried about foreigners dumping Treasurys

Jane Fox : 2/6/2007 11:18:12 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Wal-Mart Stores Inc. on Tuesday launched on its Internet site the test version of a video-download service, bringing the world's biggest retailer into the burgeoning market for digital entertainment delivered to U.S. homes.

Wal-Mart said its walmart.com service will offer more than 3,000 movie and TV titles from major Hollywood studios and networks, making it a hefty competitor to rival offerings from technology firms such as Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) and Apple Inc. (AAPL).

How I just need to get the movies to my TV without burning them to a DVD first. Patience grasshopper. I think I just called myself a grasshopper!

Jane Fox : 2/6/2007 11:16:27 AM

*Paulson: Open to making health-care deduction a tax credit
* Paulson: AMT is a cruel tax; permanent relief is coming

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2007 11:16:21 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Jane Fox : 2/6/2007 11:14:23 AM

WE have direction again and this time it is down. WE have now switched to "Sell the Rallies." Link

Keene Little : 2/6/2007 11:09:14 AM

Speaking of GOOG, it broke its uptrend line from September, currently near 482, but is attempting to hold onto the 470 level which is where the pullback from the January high has two equal legs down. It's possible we'll see it start a new leg up and that would obviously be bullish for the broader market (a sign of interest in the high flyers). Bullish count: Link

At this point though I see an equal possibility for it to continue lower. The trouble here is how much lower. I'd say a break below 450 should get bulls nervous but it takes a break below its uptrend line from August 2004, currently near 435, to confirm we've probably seen a high in this stock. Bearish count: Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2007 11:02:26 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 2/6/2007 10:50:40 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Treasury price losses lightened Tuesday morning, after Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson told the House Ways and Means Committee that the economy is slowing to a more sustainable rate of growth.

Our economy appears to be transitioning from a period of above-trend growth to a more sustainable level of about 3% growth," Paulson said. The secretary highlighted real wage growth of 1.7% over the last 12 months, saying that workers are beginning to reap bigger paychecks as a result of low inflation.

Paulson will discuss the budget with a panel of Senators this afternoon.

Keene Little : 2/6/2007 10:41:48 AM

Other than some of the major indices, I had started showing charts of GOOG and CME since these could help us identify what the broader market might be up to. I'll post updated charts of CME for those of who may be following these stocks. But let me say CME is not very clear at the moment and the numbers of alternative wave counts, as I try to show them on the charts, is confusing. The problem is a lot of 3-wave moves and that makes it more difficult to get a bearing on its trend.

This stock can really move and unfortunately I see the possibility for a big move in either direction only to reverse again. It could be a good candidate to sell option spreads (iron condor) way above and below the current price. In fact the larger pattern, as shown on this daily chart, gives me the impression CME is going to do a big sideways move (or possibly a big down-up or up-down sequence) over the next month or two. Link

The daily chart shows some alternative price paths with the colored triangles attempting to show where price breaks would be potentially significant. So in other words, between the green up triangle at 590 and the red down triangle at 530 we could see one big choppy mess. Above or below those levels and we could get a runner (however the upside potential seems somewhat limited in my opinion).

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2007 10:39:33 AM

CARDINAL HEALTH IN PACT WITH FDA

DJ- Medical-device company says it has reached an agreement that would allow it to resume making its Alaris SE line of infusion pumps for U.S. market. It suspended production, sales and repairs of the pumps in August.

CAH $71.42 -0.39% Link ...

Jane Fox : 2/6/2007 10:40:31 AM

* Paulson: Must begin to deal with entitlement spending today
* Paulson: Medicare cut proposal is to 'start the discussion'
* Paulson: Must begin to deal with entitlement spending today

Jane Fox : 2/6/2007 10:38:38 AM

Internals are now telling me it is time to exit all trades and wait until we see a direction.

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2007 10:37:22 AM

NATIONAL SEMICONDUCTOR CUTS 3Q REVENUE VIEW

DJ- Semiconductor company cuts its 3Q revenue guidance because of lower shipments and now expects revenue down 14% to 15% from the $501.6 million reported in 2Q.

NSM $22.39 -3.98% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2007 10:35:50 AM

ANADARKO 4Q NET MORE THAN DOUBLES

DJ- Oil and gas company's earnings rise to $1.92 billion, or $4.13 a share, from $875 million a year ago. Results include a variety of charges and a $1.77 billion gain on sale of a Canadian unit. Revenue jumps 66% to $3.18 billion.

APC $42.68 -0.62% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2007 10:31:03 AM

EMERSON ELECTRIC 1Q NET JUMPS 12%

DJ- Emerson posts net income of $445 million, or 55c a share, as revenue increases 11% to $5.1 billion. Analysts expected 53c EPS. International sales account for more than 50% of overall sales for the first time, offsetting weakness in U.S.

EMR $44.88 -1.44% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2007 10:29:24 AM

COLD WEATHER, SUPER BOWL BOOST US RETAIL SALES

DJ- U.S. chain store sales rise 1.7% in January versus prior month, according to Redbook Research, which targeted a 1.6% gain. ICSC-UBS Retail Chain Store Sales Index reverses prior loss to rise by 1.3% in the week ended Feb. 3.

S&P Retail Index (RLX.X) $525.56 +0.24% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2007 10:26:48 AM

Netflix (NFLX) $22.47 -0.57% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2007 10:26:22 AM

Movie Gallery (MOVI) $4.11 +9.01% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2007 10:25:57 AM

Hastings Entertainment (HAST) $5.73 (unch) ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2007 10:25:24 AM

Blockbuster (BBI) $6.79 +0.44% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2007 10:24:16 AM

WAL-MART LAUNCHES DIGITAL MOVIE STORE

DJ- Beta version of service will include more than 3,000 movie and TV titles from major Hollywood studios and television networks and will allow customers to download movies and TV shows to their personal computers.

WMT $48.60 +0.16% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2007 10:22:30 AM

MGIC TO BUY RADIAN IN $4.9B STOCK SWAP

DJ- MGIC says it will exchange 0.9658 share of its stock for each share of Radian. Terms don't appear to offer Radian holders any premium. Radian shares closed yesterday down 44c at $60.84, while MGIC's offer was valued at $60.78 at yesterday's close.

MTG $69.22 +9.97% ...

RDN $65.98 +8.44% ...

Keene Little : 2/6/2007 10:17:39 AM

I like to keep in mind potential patterns that price could play out since it often helps identify ideas about what price could do. If we're topping, as I firmly believe we are, then it would be typical to find a lot of back and forth price movement near the high (distribution to the masses).

A common topping pattern is a diamond top and considering the idea for a deeper pullback in the 4th wave, as I just posted for SPX (10:06), I drew a diamond pattern for how price could unfold this week and into next. It's just an idea but one worth watching for. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2007 10:17:25 AM

EARTHLINK POSTS 4Q LOSS ON HELIO

DJ- Internet firm posts loss of $24.8 million, or 20c a share, on a $35.7 million loss from its Helio joint venture, compared with year-earlier net income of 22c a share. Revenue rises 5% to $328.2 million. Analysts expected a loss of 16c a share.

ELNK $7.05 -2.62% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2007 10:16:10 AM

IAC/INTERACTIVE 4Q NET FALLS 85%

DJ- Owner of television-shopping channel HSN, Ticketmaster and Ask.com reports net income of $16.7 million, or 5c a share. Excluding items, it earns 67c a share. Revenue increases 7.8% to $1.82 billion. Analysts expected 53c EPS.

IACI $38.15 -2.85% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2007 10:14:55 AM

DUKE ENERGY 4Q NET DROPS 36%

DJ- Charlotte electric and natural-gas utility posts net income of $387 million, or 31c a share. Excluding items, it earns 43c a share. Analysts expected 40c a share. Operating revenue climbs 34% to $4.07 billion.

DUK $20.19 -0.49% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2007 10:13:51 AM

AVON SURGES AS 4Q NET EDGES HIGHER

DJ- Shares jump 8% after cosmetics company reports net income of $184.1 million, or 41c a share, a penny per share more than a year ago. Revenue increases 9.4% to $2.62 billion. Analysts expected 38c EPS on revenue of $2.56 billion.

AVP $37.36 +7.91% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2007 10:12:45 AM

TYCO 1Q NET UP 43%, SEES SEPARATION IN 2Q

DJ- Net profit rises to $793 million, or 39c a share, as revenue grows 7.6% to $10.33 billion. Operating income excluding charges is 45c a share, beating expectations by a penny. CEO warns of slowing electronics markets.

TYC $32.58 -1.86% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2007 10:11:41 AM

TOYOTA POSTS RECORD 3Q PROFIT ON OVERSEAS SURGE

DJ- Japanese auto maker's net income rises 7.3% to record $3.55 billion. Revenue increases 15% to record $51 billion. Sales in the key North American market jump 19% to 764,000 vehicles. Overall, it sells 2.16 million cars in the period.

TMR $133.61 +2.41% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2007 10:10:33 AM

BLACKSTONE UPS BID FOR EQUITY OFFICE

DJ- Blackstone Group once again sweetens bid for Equity Office Properties Trust, raising all-cash offer to $55.50 from $54 a share. Latest bid comes a day before Equity Office shareholders are slated to vote on the deal.

EOP $55.93 +0.84% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2007 10:09:24 AM

BP 4Q PROFIT FALLS 22% ON LOWER OUTPUT, UPS CAPEX TARGET

DJ- U.K. oil major posts net profit of $2.88 billion, or 14.9c a share, as revenue falls 2% to $62.53 billion. It raises its 2007 guidance on capital expenditure to $18 billion, saying its output will be slightly down or stable this year. The results follow CEO John Browne's January announcement he is leaving 17 months early.

BP $63.17 -1.00% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2007 10:06:35 AM

Treasury's Paulson: Strong Economy Best Tool To Balance Budget

DJ- U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson Tuesday defended the White House's 2008 budget proposal, saying preserving the Bush administration's tax cuts would help ensure the U.S. economy remains strong.

Paulson, in prepared testimony to be delivered before the House Ways and Means Committee, said the U.S. economy has made the transition to a sustainable growth rate of around 3.0%, creating new jobs, higher wages and higher government revenues that have reduced the U.S. budget deficit as a share of the economy.

"The President has submitted a budget that reflects our strong economy and our nation's priorities: continued job creation and wage growth, improved energy security, and a strong fiscal position from which we can address long-term challenges such as strengthening Social Security and Medicare for future generations," Paulson said.

Paulson said tax cuts enacted during President George W. Bush first term had "helped our economy rebound from recession to its current robust health." Rising tax revenues from a growing economy, coupled with restrained spending should bring the federal budget into balance within five years, he added.

Keene Little : 2/6/2007 10:06:20 AM

We got a little higher in the choppy rise from yesterday but choppy is the operative word. And now a sharp pullback again. If it continues to chop its way higher then I'll start leaning more towards the idea that we're into the 5th wave and be looking for signals that a top is getting put in.

But if we start to get a sharp pullback then the challenge is figuring out whether we've already topped out or if instead it's part of the 4th wave correction since Friday (as wave-c of an a-b-c 4th wave). Here's how a continuation of the 4th wave correction would look, with a downside target near SPX 1441 which would then set up the final rally leg. Link

This is a tough spot so continue to exercise caution. We'll have plenty of time to get on the right side of things and now is a riskier spot than normal to try for an entry.

Jeff Bailey : 2/6/2007 10:02:03 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 2/6/2007 9:52:46 AM

The bulls now have field position and are running for a TD. AD line is +1052. Not a time to be short and to buy the dips.

Jane Fox : 2/6/2007 9:42:41 AM

ES breaks its PDH.

Jane Fox : 2/6/2007 9:42:13 AM

Internals are telling me to be long but don't over stay your welcome.

Keene Little : 2/6/2007 9:41:03 AM

I forgot something on the first SPX 30-min chart I posted below. I put a little "bomb" symbol on the chart with "1440" next to it and a green up triangle at 1450. I'll try to use these symbols (are something like them--I'm still playing) to indicate where the wave count is either validated or rejected. Link

For the bomb symbol location, in my mind that's where the bullish expectation "blows up". If SPX drops below 1440 it wouldn't violate any EW rules for a 4th wave but it would start to look wrong and would have me reassessing the possibility that we already put in a major top. If price gets above 1450 then it's possible we're into the 5th wave up already (or potentially a more complicated 4th wave which I'll show in a bit).

Jane Fox : 2/6/2007 9:40:05 AM

YM and ER break their respective overnight lows.

Jane Fox : 2/6/2007 9:38:20 AM

BOSTON (MarketWatch) -- Standard & Poor's said Tuesday it will acquire a widely used commodity index and two stock-benchmark families from Goldman Sachs Group Inc.

Financial terms of the deal were not disclosed, the McGraw-Hill Cos. unit and Goldman Sachs (GS) said.

S&P is acquiring the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (GSCI), the Goldman Sachs Sector Indexes, and the Goldman Sachs Technology Index and six technology sub-indexes, according to a statement.

Jane Fox : 2/6/2007 9:37:13 AM

TICKS +800.

Jane Fox : 2/6/2007 9:35:02 AM

TRIN opens well above its PDH and should have the bulls attention. VIX opens within its PDR.

Jane Fox : 2/6/2007 9:34:23 AM

AD line is a bullish +590 and AD volume above 0 and climbing. THe bulls have the ball but do not have field position.

Keene Little : 2/6/2007 9:27:56 AM

With yesterday's sideways consolidation continuing from Friday it's looking better for another leg up once this is done. Another minor pullback that stays within the past two days' range should set it up. As for upside potential for the DOW and SPX the move up could do anything from truncate (for essentially a retest of the high) or give us an 80-point run on the DOW (8 points on SPX). I'll be able to get some specific numbers once I know where the 4th wave correction has ended and 5th wave begun.

Because we're in a 4th wave correction, one of the worst waves to try to trade, it's very difficult to tell where it will end and therefore caution is required here. But my preferred wave count, shown on this SPX 30-min chart, is for a slight pullback to the uptrend line from the end of January, so perhaps around 1445 (only a 2-pt pullback), and then the 5th wave up, with upside projections of 1451 and 1455. That would be about ES 1457 and 1461. Link

For a slightly different possibility, if we see price chop its way higher from here in the shape of an ascending wedge then it will look like the 5th wave up started from yesterday's low. The upside projections would be slightly lower for that case. If that were to happen, a break below yesterday's low would be confirmation that the rally is finished. Link

But if we get a deeper pullback today it should not be bearish--this pattern still looks like it needs a 5th wave up so be careful about the short side.

Marc Eckelberry : 2/6/2007 9:23:22 AM

YM short 12698, lower stop to 12726.

Jane Fox : 2/6/2007 9:14:11 AM

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stock futures sported a tepid rise on Tuesday, as investors treaded cautiously ahead of speeches from Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke...

There's not much in the way of economic releases from the U.S. on Tuesday, but Treasury Secretary Paulson is due to testify before the U.S. Ways and Means committee at 10 a.m. Eastern, and Fed Chairman Bernanke will make a speech in Omaha, Neb. at 1:30 p.m.

Fed presidents Michael Moskow and Janet Yellen also will be delivering speeches.

Jane Fox : 2/6/2007 9:14:51 AM

The 20 minute charts don't always show you the relationship between Gold, Crude and the US $ but these do. Link

Jane Fox : 2/6/2007 9:08:58 AM

A bullish overnight session where ES and YM broke thier respective PDHs. Link

Jane Fox : 2/6/2007 9:07:16 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - Gold futures rallied early Tuesday, gaining strength from a surge in energy prices and a decline in the U.S. dollar.

Gold for April delivery was last up $6 at $662 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. In the previous session, the contract closed up $4.60 at $656.10 an ounce.

Gold has rallied back this morning, "and continues to see scaled down support, as firm oil prices generate concerns about inflation," said James Moore, an analyst at TheBullionDesk.com, in emailed comments.

Crude-oil futures rose early Tuesday, tracking gains in natural gas as temperatures across the northeastern U.S. remained bitterly cold, raising expectations of heightened demand for heating fuel.

I will show a chart of these markets later and you will see the relationship mentioned in the first sentence.

Jane Fox : 2/6/2007 9:03:11 AM

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- BP on Tuesday reported a 22% profit decline in the fourth quarter, hurt by declining retail and refining margins, falling production and lower gas prices.

BP (BP) said its profit dropped to $2.88 billion, or $1.21 a U.S.-listed share.

Excluding the effects of energy price changes on unsold inventory, and its profit would've dropped 12% to $3.895 billion. It also recorded $152 million in charges. Analysts were expecting an adjusted profit of around $3.9 billion.

For the year, BP's adjusted profit rose 15% to $22.25 billion, a company record.

Marc Eckelberry : 2/6/2007 7:43:19 AM

ECBOT is having an outage, just as ES approaches monthly R1.

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