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Keene Little : 2/12/2007 1:52:43 AM

CME also has an EW pattern that leaves a lot of guesswork at the moment. We could see it chop sideways between 550 and 600 before it heads higher in the spring or it may have already topped out. The important levels to watch for now are 590 to the upside and 530 to the downside. At a minimum I would expect to see a continuation lower to Fib projections for this leg down at 557 and then 539. But any continuation back above 589 would have me out of any short positions with this stock. Link

This chart with the bullish EW count shows a little lower first and two possibilities for a consolidation before heading higher again. Any move back above 590 would suggest a move to 610-620: Link If CME can break below 530 and its uptrend line from August 2006 then the bears can start to breathe a little easier, although the uptrend line from April 2005 is not much lower at 515 and then the January 3rd gap fill at 509. The bears have some work to do but a move down could look something like this: Link

Keene Little : 2/12/2007 1:22:25 AM

GOOG remains a little confusing in its EW pattern so it leaves me guessing quite a bit as to what it's up to. The best thing I can advise on this stock is caution about any longer term projections. As shown on the daily chart we could see 450 hold and watch price consolidate essentially between 450 and 500 before breaking to a new high a couple of months from now. Link

But a break below 450 would probably mean gap closure at 426 and a test of its 200-dma, currently near 428. That would be a break of its uptrend line from August 2004, currently near 437 and if that stayed broken then the chances would be greater that GOOG is on its bearish path.

As shown a little closer at the bullish count, it could go anywhere. From a Fib projection standpoint, and the top fo the gap, I'd want to see 450 hold. If short the stock I'd look to cover some and watch for a bounce: Link But the bearish wave count calls for all those potential support levels to break and that's what to watch for--450 followed by the uptrend line at 437 and then gap close/200-dma near 426: Link

Keene Little : 2/12/2007 12:50:35 AM

Based on the spike down from January 16th to the January 19th low and then the very choppy bounce since that low, it appears NDX topped out mid January. If NDX did not top out at that January 16th high then we should look for a very choppy rally to new highs. It will make for some very difficult trading. A push back above 1820 would confirm that's probably what will happen. In the meantime a continuation of the decline below 1763 would move the bearish count up to the preferred count. Link

NDX stopped at its uptrend line from January 3rd and as drawn on this chart it's possible we'll see the NDX chop its way higher in an ascending wedge, confirmed with a move back above 1820: Link But a drop below its last low at 1763 would put NDX on a bearish path: Link

Keene Little : 2/12/2007 12:39:39 AM

The RUT was unable to push much above its Fib projection at 816 so that's the level that needs to hold for the bearish count, in which case we could be at the start of a much bigger decline. But the uptrend line from July, currently near 790 is the real make or break line. If that acts as support we could see this index turn around and head for new highs, in which case there will be two Fib projection to keep an eye on--828 and then 845. Link

With the bullish wave count we could see the RUT head for new highs now or after a bit of a choppy pullback to its uptrend line from July: Link But like the others, if the move down is just the start of a bigger decline then it might look something like this: Link

Keene Little : 2/12/2007 12:24:45 AM

Time for some road map updates. Starting with the DOW daily chart, the bearish count says price will continue lower this coming week but as shown on the chart it needs to break below 12431 to confirm it. Until that happens, and as this market has been consistently doing, the current pullback could simply be bought and driven higher again. Any rally above 12705 would confirm the bullish count. Link

The rally from November shows some Fib relationships between moves and if the rally continues then the next upside Fib projection is above 12800, potentially as high as 12844. A break of the uptrend line near 12525 would likely negate the bullish count although it would take a break below 12431 to confirm it. Link

If the decline continues through 12525, confirmed with a decline below 12431, then we should be at only the beginning of a much deeper decline. Link

SPX shows a similar pattern to the DOW--it's set up for another bounce to a new high if Friday's low holds (or a quick under throw that holds above 1430). It takes a break below 1417 to confirm the rally from July is very likely finished. Link

If the uptrend line along the lows since November holds (near 1430) then there's still the possibility for the market to press higher again as per something like this bullish count: Link But if SPX drops below 1430 (could find support there, bounce and then break down) and then confirms the trend line break with a move below 1417 that would confirm the bearish count here: Link

Keene Little : 2/11/2007 11:21:41 PM

Monday's pivot tables: Link and Link

OI Technical Staff : 2/11/2007 9:59:59 PM

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