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Keene Little : 2/12/2007 11:10:22 PM

Tuesday's pivot tables: Link and Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2007 10:27:24 PM

Baker Hughes Rotary Rig Count Table for week ended 02/09/07 Link

Where ... US + Gulf of Mexico + Canada = North America

FAQ's regarding North American Rig Counts Link

OI Technical Staff : 2/12/2007 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Keene Little : 2/12/2007 6:04:34 PM

Another general who's in trouble--MSFT is not looking so good here (from an EW perspective). Here's its monthly chart and after the 2000 decline, which is labeled wave-(a), the long sideways consolidation should have completed wave-(b) at the recent January high, and now we're due wave-(c) down. Link

I show a depiction for wave-(c) down to the $10 area by this time next year which is based on wave-(c) = 62% of wave-(a) in dollar terms and close to equality in percentage terms. I know, I know, but what about Vista? It won't matter. The tech bubble has not finished being popped. But this time the rest of the market will join in the 2nd round. As most of you know, I'm in the minority when it comes to such bearish expectations for the coming year. I'll just keep leaving it to Mr. Elliott to tell me when we get off track on this expectation. But right now the setup couldn't be clearer.

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2007 5:46:16 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2007 4:27:58 PM

March Crude Oil futures (cl07h) settled down $2.08, or -3.47% at $57.81.

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2007 4:24:26 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2007 4:17:49 PM

QQQ-NQ go out bid/ask $0.13/$0.14

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2007 4:09:02 PM

ONYX Pharma (ONXX) $24.15 +96.98% ... Good Gravy! (see 09:49:42)

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2007 4:06:40 PM


DJ- Federal government reports a $38.24 billion surplus last month, up 82% from a year earlier. CBO projected a surplus of $40 billion. December's reported surplus revised downward 5.8% to $41.96 billion.

Keene Little : 2/12/2007 3:54:26 PM

GOOG is approaching support near 450, which is the top of its gap. It's certainly a level where many bears will be taking profits and bulls will be attempting to buy support. What develops from there is the big question. If that level breaks then it should be a very quick trip down to 437 (uptrend line) and perhaps 426 (gap close). That would also change this short term wave count which calls for support to be found near 450. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2007 3:54:17 PM

Oil Service HOLDRs (AMEX:OIH) $136.01 -1.38% ...

Jane Fox : 2/12/2007 3:54:05 PM

Economic Reports for tomorrow include:

8:30a.m. Dec Trade Deficit. Expected: $59.5B. Previous: $58.23B.

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2007 3:53:32 PM

Baker Hughes (BHI) $70.06 -1.05% ... battles back to bull entry point.

Keene Little : 2/12/2007 3:58:59 PM

CME broke its uptrend line from the end of December and is trying for a retest of it at 567. A rollover to a new low would obviously be bearish but watch for potential support around 557 since that could be the low for this leg down and set up another bounce back up to the 580 area. Link

Keene Little : 2/12/2007 3:25:28 PM

If the RUT drops one more time to a minor new low, and has bullish divergences associated with the new low, that should be a setup to scalp a long. The decline today in that case would look like a small descending wedge to finish the leg down from Thursday's high. The chopping up and down today is making for a lot of guesswork but the 60-min chart shows a potential bounce in the making and then a rollover into the end of the week. A rally above 814 would have me out of bearish trades on the small caps. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2007 3:22:57 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2007 3:17:25 PM

SPX 1,433.74 -0.30% ... just more than 1-point below my "good buy" level from last Monday's Market Wrap.

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2007 3:16:33 PM

VIX.X alert! 11.71 +5.49% ... slips back below MONTHLY 38.2% retracement (11.74)

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2007 3:14:01 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 2/12/2007 3:08:05 PM

I'm not sure about the NDX but it's quite possible the leg down from Friday's high is complete. If so then we can expect a bounce back up to perhaps the 1800 area in a 2nd wave correction. A bounce back up to retest its broken uptrend line from the end of January would be typical, whether it's from here or a little lower first. A break below 1763 would confirm the bearish wave count whereas a rally above 1810 would suggest the bulls are back in control. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2007 3:02:35 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Keene Little : 2/12/2007 2:58:00 PM

Similar potential for the DOW as what I just showed for SPX. The DOW is currently finding support at its uptrend line from November 28th. Any rally back above 12607 would have me thinking less bearishly, at least for the short term. A break of its uptrend line, so below 12530, would be better confirmation that the bears are winning. Link

Keene Little : 2/12/2007 2:51:10 PM

The way price is chopping lower since the quick drop on Friday makes the short term wave pattern a little less clear but assuming SPX drops to its uptrend line near 1428-1429 we could then be set up for a larger bounce over the next day or two (as a 4th wave correction which would mean lousy trading). This 60-min chart is slightly more bearish than the 30-min chart I showed earlier this morning (9:32) and suggests this opex week will be negative, other than a coming bounce tomorrow/Wednesday. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2007 2:49:21 PM

US Envoy: Tentative Deal Reached On N Korea Disarmament

Jane Fox : 2/12/2007 2:42:28 PM

There are a few aspects about the stock market that are written in stone and one that no one can argue with is markets will ALWAYS revert back to their mean. So one of the healthiest things that can happen now is that we have a 5 - 10% correction. A 5% correction in the SPX is a return back to its 200EMA at 1355. How scary would that be?

Keene Little : 2/12/2007 2:38:29 PM

Next support level for SPX (if 1430 doesn't hold) is the uptrend line along the lows since early November, currently near 1428 (ES 1432).

Keene Little : 2/12/2007 2:35:16 PM

If you're short from last week and interested in protecting some of those profits, now is when I'd start lowering my stop. Place it just above the mid-day high and let this ride but at least take some money off the table if we get a bigger bounce. Keep an eye on that SPX 1430/DOW 12535 area (hitting it now on the DOW).

Jane Fox : 2/12/2007 2:28:45 PM

Bulls holding on by the hair on their chinny chin chin.

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2007 2:26:11 PM

An "active" day for the CME November Real Estate futures at this Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2007 2:18:15 PM

Dow Jones Home Construction ($DJUSHB) 717.62 -1.43% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2007 2:17:35 PM

CME November Real Estate futures ... Composite +0.60 at 217.40. bid/ask 217.20 x 217.80

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2007 2:16:31 PM

CME August Real Estate futures ... Composite unchanged at 218.00. bid/ask 217.80 x 218.40.

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2007 2:15:33 PM

CME May Real Estate futures ... Composite up 0.20 at 219.20. bid/ask 219.00 x 219.20

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2007 2:05:55 PM

SPX 1,433.11 ... MONTHLY Pivot at 1,428 (see my 12:37:12 chart)

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2007 2:04:38 PM

VIX 11.76 ... juuuust above its MONTHLY 38.2% retracement (11.74)

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2007 2:01:11 PM

Swing trade call cancel order alert ... Cancel the prior order to sell the VIX-BV for $2.10; and replace with ...

Sell long the VIX-BV for $1.40.

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2007 1:58:07 PM

In my opinion, it would take excessive call selling/put buying to get VIX to MONTHLY R2 (14.00) ... So ... 14 - 12.50 = 1.50 on the VIX-BV is max target into this week's expiration.

Jane Fox : 2/12/2007 1:55:52 PM

All PDLS have been broken but we are not getting the watershed I expected.

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2007 1:55:16 PM

VIX.X 11.79 ... VIX-BV still $0.10 x $0.15 (417 contracts with low/high still $0.10/$0.20)

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2007 1:52:25 PM

VIX.X alert! 11.71

Jane Fox : 2/12/2007 1:51:07 PM

TICKS -800 Thar she blows.

Keene Little : 2/12/2007 1:50:37 PM

For the DOW we've got potential support at its uptrend line from November 28th, the bottom of its ascending wedge. That's currently at 12534 which is also a 62% retracement of the rally from January 26th. Again I'd be surprised if support isn't found there and selling could accelerate if that level is broken (more than a head fake break). That would be roughly equivalent to YM 12550.

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2007 1:48:17 PM

TLT-CJ $0.50 x $0.65 ... 81 contracts have changed hands with low/high $0.50/$0.70

Keene Little : 2/12/2007 1:47:47 PM

Finally tipping over after consolidating. If the dcline continues (and is not just a head fake push lower) I'd watch SPX 1430-1431 (ES 1434-1435) for support. It would likely get nasty if that level gives way.

Jane Fox : 2/12/2007 1:47:46 PM

ES's support continues to hold on but once again I don't think it will for long. Ya right that is what I said before isn't it.

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2007 1:47:23 PM

iShares Lehman 20-year (AMEX:TLT) $87.36 -0.30% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2007 1:46:50 PM

30-year Yield ($TYX.X) up 2.8 bp now at 4.893% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2007 1:46:16 PM

13-week Treasury Yield ($IRX.X) up 0.5 bp at 5.020% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2007 1:45:33 PM

US 3-Month Bills: 5.025%; 30.27% At High

DJ- The U.S. Treasury awarded $19.00 billion in three-month bills at Monday's auction at a high rate of 5.025%.

The Treasury received bids totaling $47.29 billion and accepted $19.00 billion, including $2.22 billion of noncompetitive tenders. The dollar price was 98.729792 and the investment rate, or bond-equivalent return, was 5.160%.

The Treasury also sold $225.00 million of bills to foreign and international monetary authority accounts on a noncompetitive bidding basis.

The bid-to-cover ratio, an indication of demand, was 2.49, Treasury said.

Tenders submitted at the high yield were allotted 30.27%.

The median rate was 5.010%; that is, 50% of the amount of accepted competitive bids were tendered at or below that rate.

Of the competitive bids accepted, 5% were tendered at or below the rate of 5.000%.

The Federal Reserve purchased $14.03 billion in bills for its own account in Monday's three- and six-month bill auctions. When the auction was announced, the Fed held $17.59 billion of maturing bills.

The bills awarded to the Federal Reserve are in addition to the public offering amount.

Accepted indirect bids for the three-month bills were 25.6% of the total, down from 28.5% in last week's three-month bill auction.

The high rate was up from 5.010% at the previous three-month bill auction.

The high rate was the highest since the rate of 5.090% at the three-month bill auction on Jan. 22, 2001.

The issue is dated Feb. 15 and matures on May 17, 2007.

The CUSIP number on the three-month bill is 912795ZG9.

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2007 1:41:36 PM

S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) 404.59 +0.25% ... WEEKLY Pivot 405.08 still serves near-term resistance intra-day.

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2007 1:40:42 PM

Wells Fargo (WFC) $35.55 +0.53% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2007 1:40:15 PM

HSBC Holdings (HBC) $89.50 +0.08% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2007 1:39:45 PM

VIX.X 11.52 +3.78% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2007 1:39:32 PM

SPX 1,434.99 -0.21% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2007 1:39:12 PM

New Century Financial (NEW) $16.95 -6.91% ... slips to new session lows. Friday low was $16.15.

Jane Fox : 2/12/2007 1:38:07 PM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Cheered on by business lobbyists, the Bush administration's top international trade official on Monday officially kicked off an effort to convince the Democratic-led Congress to extend a law giving the White House authority to negotiate trade agreements with a minimum of input from Capitol Hill.

In a news conference kicking off a business-led campaign to renew the administration's trade promotion authority, U.S. Trade Representative Susan Schwab and business leaders warned that failure to extend the law could undermine global trade talks and weaken U.S. exports.

The United States "must be a force to reverse" signs of a rising tide of protectionism around the globe, Schwab said. "The United States needs to be in the game with trade promotion authority in hand, not on the sidelines."

The administration's trade promotion authority, or TPA, expires on June 30. Under TPA, trade deals negotiated by the administration can't be amended by Congress, and the House and Senate must hold an up-or-down vote on the pacts by a specific deadline.

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2007 1:38:24 PM

EU Ministers: OK Plan For Implementing UN Sanctions Vs. Iran

DJ- E.U. foreign ministers approved plans Monday to implement U.N. sanctions against Iran, as the U.N. nuclear watchdog agency's chief appealed for a "time-out" on sanctions if Tehran suspends uranium enrichment in its nuclear program.

Mohamed ElBaradei, head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, said his time-out plan, which he proposed a few weeks ago, was meant to end the standoff between the West and Iran over its nuclear program.

"The two parties need to take a time-out," he told reporters after meeting Belgian Prime Minister Guy Verhofstadt.

"Sanctions are an important tool, but sanctions alone will not solve the issue," he said, adding there was "a need to return to creative diplomacy."

ElBaradei urged Tehran to seize "a window of opportunity ... to listen to the international community's need for reassurances about the peaceful nature of their nuclear program."

"I don't think Iran will lose anything by agreeing temporarily to take a time-out," ElBaradei said.

His plan calls for Iran to suspend its nuclear development program and the U.N. to suspend the application of sanctions so that talks on Tehran's nuclear intentions can resume.

ElBaradei did not discuss Iran with E.U. foreign ministers who met separately and approved plans Monday for the way they will implement U.N. sanctions against Iran to punish Tehran for its refusal to halt uranium enrichment.

The U.N. Security Council agreed in December to impose sanctions targeting people and programs linked to Iran's nuclear program, which the E.U. and others fear is being used to make nuclear weapons.

U.K. Foreign Secretary Margaret Beckett hoped the E.U. decision would send "an important signal to Iran that she should chose the path of negotiation."

Under the Dec. 23 decision, Iran was given two months to return to negotiations.

On Sunday, E.U. foreign policy Javier Solana and German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier met with Iran's top national security official Ali Larijani - the first talks since negotiations collapsed last year over Tehran's refusal to suspend enrichment, a potential pathway to developing nuclear arms.

Larijani Raises Possibility Of Limited Enrichment At a security conference in Munich, Larijani said Iran was ready to restart negotiations with the international community, but said it would not suspend its nuclear program as a precondition for talks.

Larijani indicated that there were ways to resolve the enrichment issue.

"There are centrifuges that could only do enrichment to a certain level," he said. "This is one point that is acceptable."

He also implied that Iran would be willing to modify its nuclear enrichment program if fuel supplies to civilian nuclear power plants were guaranteed to the Islamic republic.

"What we are doing is research and development (because) there is no guarantee of secure fuel for the power plants," Larijani said.

E.U. officials reacted cautiously to Iran's offer, but said they remained open to more talks.

Steinmeier said the E.U. got "the impression" that there is a "new ambition to return to the negotiating table," from Larijani.

"We are not seeking an escalation, we want a solution and we will take every possible opportunity to reach that objective," Steinmeier said.

"We just want Iran to make it possible to return to the negotiating table. We need to see what the signals are from Iran, whether they are serious and what proposals appear on the table."

Solana told reporters that he had the feeling that the outcome of Sunday's talks "was rather good," but warned that it was still up to Iran to "trigger" new negotiations.

"The Iranians know exactly what they have to do," Solana said, adding the E.U. "had not heard" any new proposals from Tehran.

He said he would hold talks with the U.N. atomic energy agency in Vienna on March 6, to assess what further measures against Tehran might be needed.

French Foreign Minister Philippe Douste Blazy said the latest Iranian overtures "do not answer" U.N. demands that it suspend its enrichment program.

The U.N. Security Council imposed limited sanctions to punish Iran for defying a resolution demanding that it suspend uranium enrichment, a process that can produce material to fuel nuclear reactors or to build bombs.

Monday's decision means that all E.U. governments will uniformly implement regulations imposing the U.N. sanctions, which include a ban on selling materials and technology that could be used in Iran's nuclear and missile programs and the freezing of assets of 10 Iranian companies and individuals.

The E.U. already has in place a de-facto 10-year ban on the sale of weapons to Iran. Its foreign ministers reiterated that a package of economic incentives remains on offer if Tehran abandons nuclear enrichment.

Monday's move on the U.N. sanctions does not go far enough for Washington, however, which has called on European nations to follow the U.S. in cutting trade ties with Tehran.

Diplomats in Brussels said E.U. governments are free to go beyond the U.N. sanctions if they wish, but rejected any American pressure on the 27-nation bloc to do more.

E.U. nations have long been divided over whether to cut trade ties with Iran, especially when many of them are keen to keep investments in Iran's lucrative oil and gas sector.

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2007 1:28:30 PM

China: N Korea Nuclear Talks Have Achieved "Positive Results"

Jane Fox : 2/12/2007 1:23:49 PM

This kind of consolidation does not bode well for the bulls but the bears have not been able to break support at PDLs so you just never know. Internals are saying it could break but with that dang rescue team lurking in the shadows the bears are just a tad shy now-a-days. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2007 1:21:24 PM

US 6-Month Bills: 4.965%; 70.79% At High

DJ- The U.S. Treasury awarded $15.00 billion in six-month bills at Monday's auction at a high rate of 4.965%.

The Treasury received bids totaling $40.58 billion and accepted $15.00 billion, including $1.92 billion of noncompetitive tenders. The dollar price was 97.489917 and the investment rate, or bond-equivalent return, was 5.164%.

The Treasury also sold $325.00 million of six-month bills to foreign and international monetary authority accounts on a noncompetitive bidding basis.

The bid-to-cover ratio, an indication of demand, was 2.71, Treasury said.

Tenders submitted at the high yield were allotted 70.79%.

The median rate was 4.950%; that is, 50% of the amount of accepted competitive bids were tendered at or below that rate.

Of the competitive bids accepted, 5% were tendered at or below the rate of 4.935%.

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2007 1:16:48 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Jane Fox : 2/12/2007 1:09:58 PM

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- A U.S. Army official confirmed Monday that a small explosion took place outside an Army base south of Tokyo, according to a media reports. The Army could not immediately confirm what had caused the explosion, the Associated Press reported. The Kyodo News agency reported that police had found a "launch pad" near the base and suspected an attempted guerrilla attack, the AP said.

Jane Fox : 2/12/2007 1:07:47 PM

Looks like we may take another run at daily lows again, however, it is taking its jolly time isn't it?

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2007 1:05:27 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2007 1:00:26 PM

US Oil Fund (AMEX:USO) $48.25 -3.48% ... darts to new session lows.

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2007 12:59:51 PM


DJ- Saudi oil minister says the global crude market is in 'much, much better health and balance' now and, if trends hold, there will be no need for further production cuts or increases in supply when OPEC members meet next month.

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2007 12:50:46 PM

US Energy Corp. (USEG) $5.16 +5.52% ... gets some action. Slight volume build.

Keene Little : 2/12/2007 12:43:18 PM

Not a whole lot happening today. The price consolidation near the low looks bearish but it doesn't preclude seeing a larger bounce develop before rolling over again. I continue to not like the long side but I couldn't recommend a short right here either. Stay short or flat are my two recommendations for the time being.

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2007 12:37:12 PM

S&P 500 (SPX.X) 60-minute interval chart with MONTHLY/WEEKLY Pivot retracement at this Link

VIX.X 11.53 +3.87% ...

Jane Fox : 2/12/2007 12:27:18 PM

If the AD line were under -1000 then a short would be a slam dunk but since it is -692, you want to be a just tad more caucious if short. Well you always want to be caucious but you know what I mean. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2007 12:18:40 PM


DJ- Group of major media companies claim the Internet giant has benefited from the sale of pirated movies and provided business support to two Web sites suspected of offering access to illegal film downloads, leading the media firms to question Google's internal controls.

GOOG $456.10 -1.25% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2007 12:16:20 PM


DJ- Home-improvement giant hires Lehman Brothers to help it determine strategic alternatives for its wholesale-distribution business. That includes a possible sale, spinoff or IPO. HD Supply has annual revenue of about $12 billion and was part of former CEO Nardelli's move for Home Depot to tap into the contractor market.

HD $41.46 +1.12% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2007 12:12:24 PM

DJ- Russia, Qatar Say Will Explore Creation Of Gas Cartel

Keene Little : 2/12/2007 12:12:23 PM

It's possible we're seeing a bottom forming for the RUT. If true then it should be getting ready for a larger bounce back up to the 810 area before rolling back over (assuming we're on the bearish wave count). Any rally back above 814 (78.6% retracement of the decline from last week's high) would seriously question the bearish wave count. Link

On the other hand, any larger bounce from here that is then followed by a move below 803 should be a strong indication that the RUT will head down to its uptrend line from August, currently near 790. It's possible the RUT will simply roll over from here but the 30 and 60-min charts support the idea that this could get a bigger bounce at any time. It at least suggests caution.

Keene Little : 2/12/2007 12:00:18 PM

CME is currently finding support at its uptrend line from the end of December so it's possible it's going to bounce, potentially back up to the 580 area before rolling back over (if it has more downside work to do). For now watch to see if support holds above 565 which is the level I've identified as important for the shorter term bearish wave count (breaking below 530, the uptrend line from April 2005, is the important level for the longer term wave count). Link

Keene Little : 2/12/2007 11:52:06 AM

After breaking below its uptrend line from early December, TNX (10-year yield) has now bounced back up to the trend line at 4.8%, which is also its 20-dma. From a short term perspective it looks like rates could pull back some (bonds rally). But the daily chart supports the idea that a small pullback in yield could lead to more upside so I wouldn't want to think much more than a scalp trade in bonds.

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2007 11:49:52 AM

Earnings ... Holly Corp. (HOC, $52.34 -3.59%) said fourth-quarter earnings rose to $47.7 million, or 84 cents a share, from $39.9 million, or 65 cents a share, a year earlier. Excluding discontinued operations, earnings would have increased to 86 cents a share from 63 cents a share. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial had been expecting earnings of 83 cents a share, on average. Revenue grew 15% to $938.1 million from last year's $812.4 million, with refined product volumes increasing 10%. The petroleum refiner's stock closed Friday down 78 cents at $54.29.

HOC Link ...

Jane Fox : 2/12/2007 11:48:36 AM

More TICKS +800. Gold losing it.

Keene Little : 2/12/2007 11:41:59 AM

BTW, the significance of the break of its 50-dma by MER is that that moving average has supported each pullback since the rally started in July. This is typically a very good indicator of a trend change and one many institutions will listen to.

Jane Fox : 2/12/2007 11:41:36 AM

Wouldn't you just know it TICKS +800.

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2007 11:40:38 AM

US To Sell $24.0 Billion 4-Week Bills Tuesday (Vs. $18.0 Billion)

DJ- The Treasury plans to raise about $16.00 billion in new cash Tuesday with the sale of about $24.00 billion in four-week bills to redeem $8.00 billion in maturing bills.

The sale amount is up from last week's auction, when Treasury sold $18.00 billion in four-week bills.

The Federal Reserve holds $17.59 billion of maturing bills for its own account, which it may choose to roll over in either Monday's three- and six-month bill auction or Tuesday's four-week bill auction.

The four-week bills will be dated Feb. 15 and mature March 15, 2007. The CUSIP number is 912795YX3.

Noncompetitive tenders for the bills, available in minimum $1,000 denominations, must be received by 12:00 p.m. EST Tuesday. Competitive tenders for the bills must be received by 1:00 p.m. EST.

Jane Fox : 2/12/2007 11:39:13 AM

So far ES's support is holding on but I don't think for long.

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2007 11:38:07 AM

VIX-BV $0.10 x $0.15 .... 340 contracts have traded with session low/high of $0.10/$0.20

Keene Little : 2/12/2007 11:37:44 AM

Keeping an eye on Mother Merrill (MER) shows us that the market could be in trouble. MER broke below its 50-dma Friday but recovered and closed on it. It has now droppped back below it and below its last low of 91.46 on January 31st. The broker index (XBD) is approaching its 50-dma at 247.37 (currently printing 248.07) so support may not be far away today. SPX 1430 is the area I'd watch for a bottom today.

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2007 11:37:27 AM

VIX.X alert 11.63 +4.77% ... creeps to session high.

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2007 11:35:08 AM

US Army Confirms Explosion Near Base In Japan; No Injuries

DJ- A small explosion occurred outside a U.S. Army base south of Tokyo late Monday, an Army official confirmed.

A Japanese news report said police suspected an attempted attack on the base. There were no reports of damage or injuries.

The Army was investigating the blast, said an official at Camp Zama, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

The Kyodo News agency reported that police had found a "launch pad" near the base and suspected an attempted guerrilla attack. The Army could not immediately confirm what had caused the explosion.

A Kanagawa Prefecture police official who only gave the name Okamura said Zama residents reported hearing the explosion at around 11 p.m. local time and police were investigating.

Jane Fox : 2/12/2007 11:25:04 AM

ES's PDL is 1437 and daily lows so far 1438.25 so this zone is crucial. If it breaks (the internals suggest it will) then we may see a very quick move downward.

Jane Fox : 2/12/2007 11:23:31 AM

I suspect the support we saw from the PDLs earlier will not hold if tested again. NQ has already broken its PDL.

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2007 11:23:02 AM

Sector Status Change ... At the conclusion of Friday's trade, Dorsey/Wright's WallStreet Bullish % (BPWALL) reversed back lower to "bear confirmed" from "bear correction" at 75.61%.

Jane Fox : 2/12/2007 11:16:45 AM

AD volume is making new daily lows telling me not to be long. VIX is hovering around daily highs which is bearish but I would sure like to see the VIX making new daily highs to feel a lot safer with a short position.

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2007 11:14:53 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Jane Fox : 2/12/2007 11:13:27 AM

Gold breaks its ovenright lows. If you took the short in gold (I used YG) you can lower your stop now.

Tab Gilles : 2/12/2007 11:06:48 AM

Google (GOOG) $456.89

After putting in a Double Top at the $513 level it is currently ready to test support at $452. If that support level doesn't hold then the $430 comes into play.

Daily chart... Link

Weekly chart... Link

Jane Fox : 2/12/2007 11:05:43 AM

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Crude futures fell Monday morning after the Saudi Arabian oil minister played down the prospect of further production cuts by major oil producers, describing the global market as in "much, much better health and balance" than it was a few months ago.

At the same time, natural-gas futures dropped as much as 6% with traders reflecting doubt that declines in U.S. supplies fueled by winter-weather in many parts of the nation will be enough to draw down the inventory surplus before the winter ends.

Crude for March delivery was down $1.09 at $58.80 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. On Friday, the contract climbed to as high as $60.80 a barrel on news of a refinery snag in California, continued tension between the U.S. and Iran and cold weather. It later retreated to close at $59.89, but that was still its highest closing level for the year and it marked a nearly 2% gain for the week.

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2007 11:02:22 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Keene Little : 2/12/2007 10:56:01 AM

So far there's not much to the bounce and it's looking corrective so I'm still leaning to more downside. Whether it drops from here or after a little more choppy price action to the upside is hard to say. But I wouldn't want to be long here.

Jane Fox : 2/12/2007 10:39:23 AM

I think the best trade right now is no trade but if you must I would not be long.

Jane Fox : 2/12/2007 10:37:19 AM

AD line is a bearish -582 now and AD volume making new daily lows.

Keene Little : 2/12/2007 10:36:14 AM

Until proven otherwise my preferred EW count is the bearish one and this DOW 30-min chart shows a depiction of what price action could look like this week. The important level for the bears is 12675--any rally back above that would negate the bearish count (although I'd be getting very nervous with a move above 12625 or essentially to a new daily high today). Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2007 10:30:26 AM

S Korea Official: N Korea Nuclear Talks In "Final Phase"

DJ- Negotiations on a possible agreement over North Korea's nuclear programs are heading toward a conclusion, a South Korean official said late Monday, adding that any accord would still require approval from the countries' governments.

"Negotiations on a joint document have reached a final phase," a South Korean official said on condition of anonymity due to the ongoing diplomacy.

"There is a possibility that the delegations will conclude an agreement," the official said. "But such an agreement requires approval from their respective governments."

Jane Fox : 2/12/2007 10:23:25 AM

PDLs have been support so far today. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2007 10:15:56 AM

General Motors (GM) $36.29 +0.80% ... edges above its 10/24/06 relative high close.

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2007 10:13:16 AM

10:10 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 2/12/2007 10:10:43 AM

Rescue team has arrived. TICKs +800

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2007 10:08:52 AM

Selling long PTR $122.20 in personal account.

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2007 10:06:00 AM

CNOOC (CEO) $82.27 -0.83% ... slips below its 80.9% retracement from 09/11/06 low close to recent 12/29/06 high close.

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2007 10:04:24 AM

Downgrade/Upgrade ... Boston Scientific Corp. (BSX, $17.03 -1.99%) was downgraded by Bear Stearns to peer perform from outperform, as uncertainties about the drug-eluting stents market and competitive headwinds make sales growth and cost reductions difficult. Analyst Rick Wise said the fundamentals for the company's peers look better, and therefore he upgraded St. Jude Medical Inc. (STJ $42.17 +0.38%) to outperform from peer perform, citing the company's strong product pipeline, its recent sales force investment and cost reduction opportunities.

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2007 10:01:15 AM

Upgrade ... Apple Inc. (AAPL, $84.38 +1.30%) was upgraded to buy from hold at Citigroup, which cited several meaningful product catalysts and expectations of significant gross market upside due to declines in flash memory and DRAM (dynamic random access memory) pricing. Analyst Richard Gardner kept his 12-month price target at $105. While Gardner sees some risks associated with the investigation into option back dating and with the digital right management issues, he feels the reward-versus-risk profile of the stock has improved. "We believe clients should begin building positions at current prices, while any first-half (2007) weakness would simply represent an enhanced opportunity to increase positions," Gardner said in a research note.

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2007 9:59:30 AM

Merger ... Adeza Biomedical Corp. (ADZA, $23.75, $8.22, 52.93%) agreed to be bought by Cytyc Corp. (CYTC, $29.83, $0.28, 0.95%) for $24 a share, or approximately $450 million, Cytyc will fund the purchase through existing cash, the cash on Adeza's balance sheet, and existing credit facilities. The deal, which is subject to customary closing conditions and regulatory approvals, is expected to be complete before the end of March. Adeza designs, manufactures and markets women's health products, with a focus on reproductive health care. Cytyc said that, excluding one-time costs related to the acquisition, it expects the acquisition to be break-even to earnings in 2007 and at least accretive by 5 cents to 2008 earnings per share.

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2007 9:57:22 AM

UK Govt. Backs US On Iraqi Insurgents Being Armed By Iran

DJ- U.K. Prime Minister Tony Blair's government Monday backed U.S. claims that Iran's leadership has provided weapons to insurgents fighting coalition forces in Iraq.

Blair first expressed concern in October 2005 about technology for roadside bombs and other weapons entering Iraq from Iran, the prime minister's official spokesman said.

"The prime minister has been at the cutting edge of identifying this problem," the spokesman said on condition of anonymity, in keeping with government policy. "We continue to say what actually is the case, which is that we keep finding this weaponry which we do not believe can be sourced from anywhere else."

On Sunday, U.S. military officials in Baghdad accused Iran's leadership of arming Shiite militants in Iraq with sophisticated armor-piercing roadside bombs that have killed more than 170 troops from the U.S.-led coalition.

Military officials allege the weapons have been supplied to "rogue elements" of the Mahdi Army militia of anti-American Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr.

Many key Iraqi government figures and members of Iraq's Shiite political establishment have deep ties to Iran, having spent decades there in exile during Saddam Hussein's rule.

Keene Little : 2/12/2007 9:54:45 AM

The techs look like they could be closer to setting up a larger bounce. The February 6 low of 1776.57 on NDX could be some good support (currently printing 1779). Note that NQ just tapped that 2/6 low at 1784.75.

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2007 9:49:42 AM

Bayer, Onyx halt liver cancer study due to positive outcome

MarketWatch Story Link

ONXX $19.38 +58.15% Link

BAY $57.96 +0.22% Link ...

Keene Little : 2/12/2007 9:43:55 AM

The DOW has bounced back up to its broken uptrend line from January 26th (12608) and makes for a good short entry here.

Jane Fox : 2/12/2007 9:42:46 AM

AD volume making new daily lows and VIX new daily highs so I would not be long here.

Keene Little : 2/12/2007 9:42:08 AM

I show SPX 1430 as a good downside target on the 30-min chart I posted. That would be about 8 points lower and that would give us about ES 1434. Daily and weekly S1 and monthly pivot are at ES 1434.25 so that would make for a great spot to take some profits off the table. That would then be a 3-wave move down from last week's high and the way this market has been behaving (reversals after 3-wave moves) I'd get a little more cautious about the downside until we see what kind of bounce develops.

Jane Fox : 2/12/2007 9:39:50 AM

I am bearish ES under its daily low but will need the AD line and volume a bit more bearish before I venture into a trade.

Jane Fox : 2/12/2007 9:33:00 AM

TRIN is 0.94 and VIX open mid range to its PDR.

Keene Little : 2/12/2007 9:32:40 AM

Ideally and from a short term perspective, looking at the 10-min chart, it appears we need to see a relatively quick but short move to the downside in order to complete a 5-wave move down from Friday's high. That would finish the 3rd wave down in the decline from last week's high and set us up for a 1-2 day consolidation in wave-4 as shown on on this SPX 30-min chart. We'd then be due another move down before setting up a bounce into the end of the week. The net result for opex Friday could be a close around the current price. Link

Jane Fox : 2/12/2007 9:32:32 AM

AD line a very neutral +44 and AD volume hovering around 0. No one has the ball this morning.

Jeff Bailey : 2/12/2007 9:24:10 AM

Weekly/Monthly Index Pivot Matrix found at this Link

Jane Fox : 2/12/2007 9:17:26 AM

Dateline WSJ - A group of major media companies has accused Internet giant Google Inc. of benefiting from the sale of pirated movies and providing business support to two Web sites suspected of offering access to illegal film downloads, according to several people familiar with the matter.

The allegations are an embarrassment for Google, which assured the companies on Friday it would take measures to prevent a recurrence of the episode.

The flare-up comes amid what have been often-tense negotiations between Google and the big film and TV studios over the unauthorized use of copyrighted programming by YouTube, a free video Web site Google bought last year after the site quickly became a cultural phenomenon.

Media companies regard Internet piracy -- the unauthorized online transfer of movies, music and other copyrighted content -- as a major threat to their businesses and claim that it has already cost them billions of dollars. Yet they acknowledge that consumers want the convenience of downloads, and the companies don't want to miss out on a potential business opportunity or try to block downloads completely, as the music industry for a time unsuccessfully sought to do.

Jane Fox : 2/12/2007 9:15:49 AM

Dateline WSJ - Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's semiannual monetary-policy report to Congress could well set the bond market's direction this week, with scope for added volatility if he wavers from the tone of his recent comments.

Barring any surprises from Mr. Bernanke's two-day testimony or on the data front, the 10-year yield is expected to stay in a range of 4.7% to 4.95% this week.

Late Friday, the price of the benchmark 10-year note fell 14/32 point, or $4.375 for each $1,000 invested, to 98 24/32. The yield, which moves inversely to the price, rose to 4.784% from 4.730%.

Mr. Bernanke's report to Congress "certainly has the potential" to set the tone for the market, said Michael Pond, Treasury and inflation-linked strategist for Barclays Capital in New York.

Given how far the market has scaled back its interest-rate-cut expectations -- it now sees just one cut by year's end -- it is equally possible, unless the chairman strikes a much more upbeat tone on the economy or a far harsher tone on inflation, that "the market doesn't react a whole lot," Mr. Pond said.

In recent comments, Federal Reserve officials have been careful to stress that inflation remains a risk and rates may well have further to rise, particularly if economic growth remains strong.

That, in turn, has echoed the tone of the Federal Open Market Committee's postmeeting statement at the end of last month, in which the FOMC left rates unchanged at 5.25% for a fifth straight gathering.

Jane Fox : 2/12/2007 9:14:56 AM

Dateline WSJ - RIYADH, Saudi Arabia -- The world oil market is in "much, much better health and balance" now and, if trends hold, there will be no need for further production cuts or increases in supply when members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries meet next month, Saudi Arabian Oil Minister Ali Naimi said yesterday.

In an interview, Mr. Naimi said the kingdom's production is now 8.5 million to 8.6 million barrels a day, confirming its reduction by one million barrels a day from its output about six months ago.

The reduction is part of a push by OPEC to shrink stockpiles of oil that climbed sharply last year as demand growth stumbled. The U.S. benchmark crude price fell through the turn of the year to a 20-month low in mid-January of $49.90 a barrel. It has since rebounded to settle Friday at $59.89 a barrel.

Mostly mild winter weather, heavy selling by financial funds and falling oil use among developed nations have contributed to prices dropping from the record $77.03 a barrel settlement price last summer.

OPEC, whose members supply about 40% of the world's oil, is to meet March 15 in Vienna to assess its production policy.

Jane Fox : 2/12/2007 9:11:06 AM

The strength in the US $ overnight will put a lot of downward pressure on Gold as will the downward move in Crude. If you trade futures a day trade short in Gold could generate a little de niro in your pocket. Just make sure you don't let it get away from you because been short Gold is not for couch potatoes. Link

Jane Fox : 2/12/2007 9:07:17 AM

Good morning all. The overnight session was not one that reveals a lot about intraday direction. Price moved sideways with no discernable trend defining highs or lows. Link

Jane Fox : 2/12/2007 8:57:56 AM

After deliberating for three months, Four Seasons Hotels Inc. (FS) on Monday said it has agreed to a $3.37 billion management buyout by Chairman and Chief Executive Isadore Sharp at the same price Sharp floated when he disclosed his offer Nov. 6.

The buyout team - backed by Saudi Prince Alwaleed Bin Talal Bin Abdulaziz Alsaud's Kingdom Hotels International and Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) Chairman Bill Gates' Cascade Investment LLC - will pay $82 a share in cash to take Four Seasons private. That's below the $83.88 closing level of Four Seasons shares Friday. Shares opened premarket trading Monday at $82.

The purchase price represents a 28% premium to Four Season's closing price the day before the offer was announced in November. Including debt obligations, the deal is valued at about $3.8 billion.

The deal will leave Sharp's family holding company, Triples, with a "significant continuing interest" in Four Seasons, and Sharp will remain as chairman and chief executive. If the deal is completed, Sharp will be entitled to realize proceeds of about $289 million stemming from an incentive plan set up in 1989.

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