Option Investor
Printer friendly version
Keene Little : 2/14/2007 1:41:30 AM

RUT bullish: Link
RUT bearish: Link

Keene Little : 2/14/2007 1:31:30 AM

Here are a few road map updates to start the trading day on Wednesday:
DOW bullish: Link
DOW bearish: Link
SPX bullish: Link
SPX bearish: Link
NDX bullish: Link
NDX bearish: Link

Keene Little : 2/13/2007 10:13:12 PM

Wednesday's pivot tables: Link and Link

OI Technical Staff : 2/13/2007 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Marc Eckelberry : 2/13/2007 7:25:22 PM

TRAN hit 5000 and buy orders came in. Looks like YM will go up and close that gap at 12710.

Marc Eckelberry : 2/13/2007 7:24:46 PM

Stopped out YM short -11. Day recap +10.

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2007 6:38:54 PM

I'm not certain if that case has had any impact on WAG's trade, or not in recent weeks.

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2007 6:38:15 PM

Walgreen (WAG) alert! ... Jury Acquits Walgreens In Nevada Racial Discrimination Case.

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2007 6:22:43 PM

Australian, Canadian Dollars Diverge

DJ- Interest-rate disparities and other irreconcilable differences are tearing apart a couple of currency cousins, the Australian and Canadian dollars, that have often marched in commodity-linked tandem.

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2007 6:21:17 PM


DJ- Philadelphia Fed says in its first quarter survey of professional forecasters that they now expect gross domestic product to grow at a 2.6% annual rate in the current quarter versus expectations of 2.7% three months ago.

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2007 6:20:24 PM


DJ- Mexican retailer Wal-Mart de Mexico plans to invest $985 million this year in an expansion that includes opening 125 new stores and restaurants, Chief Executive Eduardo Solorzano says.

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2007 6:19:15 PM


DJ- Cambridge Energy Research Associates expects crude prices to average about $58 per barrel in 2007 before dropping somewhat lower later in the decade, amid a rise in crude supply, a senior CERA analyst says.

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2007 6:18:19 PM


DJ- Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson unveils areas where he hopes the Bush administration's dialogue with Beijing will get results. They include opening Chinese markets to foreign firms, cleaner environmental services and products and patent protection.

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2007 6:16:25 PM

Applied Materials (AMAT) $18.18 +1.90% ... jumps to $19.00 in extended session.

Earnings Press Release Link

Consensus was for EPS of $0.27 on Revenue of $2.35B

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2007 5:47:06 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2007 5:22:19 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2007 4:53:01 PM

March Crude Oil futures (cl07h) settled up $1.25, or +2.16% at $59.06.

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2007 4:52:16 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Keene Little : 2/13/2007 4:45:44 PM

Hi Keene, your charts giving both bearish and bullish view with critical poits have been useful. Thanks. I am wondering on SPX 60 min chart posted yesterday you had shown 1442 as a critical point. Now mkt has penetrated that. But today you showed 1453 as a critical point. Does that mean you are now of bullish view. DOW and RUT have not yet overcome the critcal poits. Please help clarify. Thanks.

Hi Gokal, great question so thanks for the email. Sorry for the confusion. Once SPX got above 1442 it negated the bearish count that was on yesterday's chart. The new chart, where I placed the critical point at 1453, has a different bearish count, and the alternative bullish count. The bearish count changed to a 1-2, 1-2 wave count which means we have the potential to see a stronger sell off in a 3rd of a 3rd wave down. But there's an equal chance that we only had an A-B-C pullback from last week's high and today's rally was the start of another leg up (or possibly something in between as we chop sideways).

So each time a "make or break" level is reached that's when the wave count changes and the new count on the chart then has new make-or-break levels. A break of 1442 was a good time to get out of short positions since we don't know where it's going to go next (unless you're OK with your stop above last week's high). The bottom line for today is that the rally has now made the next direction even less clear and requires caution in your trading. We need to let price tell us which way it's headed next.

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2007 4:24:56 PM

Morgan Stanley Cyclical Index (CYC.X) 948.62 +1.20% Link ... Closes at all-time high.

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2007 4:19:43 PM

Wellcare Healthplans (WCG) $77.02 +0.67% ...

Earnings Press Release Link

Consensus was for EPS of $1.33 on Revenue of $1.08B

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2007 4:17:09 PM

Steinway's Board Declares Special Dividend of $3.00/share! ... Press Release Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2007 4:14:26 PM

MetLife (MET) $64.85 +2.20% ... ticks higher to $65.10 on headline numbers.

Earnings Press Release Link

Consensus was for EPS of $1.18 on Revenue of $12.64B

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2007 4:07:32 PM

Wellcare Healthplans (WCG) $77.02 +0.67% ... halted for trade. News pending.

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2007 4:06:40 PM

Steinway Musical (LVB) $33.97 +2.93% ... halted for trade. News pending.

Jane Fox : 2/13/2007 4:05:55 PM

Economic Reports for tomorrow:

8:30a.m. Jan Retail And Food Sales. Expected: +0.6%. Previous: +0.9%.

8:30a.m. Jan Retail And Food Sales, Ex-Autos. Expected: +0.5%. Previous: +1.0%.

10:00a.m. Dec Business Inventories. Expected: Unch. Previous: +0.4%.

Keene Little : 2/13/2007 3:47:42 PM

If this is a rally into Bernanke's testimony tomorrow one wonders if the market is setting itself up for some disappointment. Is there really anything he could say to make this market more bullish? On the other hand he's been known to say something that the market didn't take kindly to.

Keene Little : 2/13/2007 3:42:26 PM

SPX is banging its head again on the 1444 level. The longer it does this the more probable the break through that resistance level. The question is whether there will be enough oomph to get it through into the close. Certainly looking bullish enough at the moment.

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2007 3:37:02 PM

Buy, run write covered call alert ... sell covered one (1) of the New Century NEW March $20 Calls (NEW-CD) for $1.35.

NEW $18.65 +8.30%

Jane Fox : 2/13/2007 3:28:48 PM

A subscriber just brought a phopaw to my attention that I made on an earlier post when I said the daily charts were very oversold of course I meant overbot.

Keene Little : 2/13/2007 3:23:42 PM

They're just not going to let it drop today. Pretty typical--expecting a trend change in the afternoon is a low-odds play.

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2007 3:23:08 PM

Buy Program Premium ... SPX 1,442.78

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2007 3:16:22 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 2/13/2007 3:12:51 PM

Can I look now? I thought surely the stop on my short play was going to get hit on that bounce. Another push higher and I'm outahere.

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2007 3:03:15 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2007 2:52:34 PM

NYSE Group (NYX) $88.86 +0.49% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2007 2:51:12 PM


DJ- Exchange's net income more than triples to $63 million, or 43c a share, including 19c gain on foreign-exchange options. But in wake of LSE defeat, investors are more focused on outlook for possible deals than on earnings.

NDAQ $30.80 -12.25% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2007 2:49:20 PM


DJ- Bottler posts net loss of $1.71 billion, or $3.59 a share, on $2.92 billion writedown. Earnings excluding items rise to 20c, beating expectations by 4c. Company will cut 3,500 jobs and sees lower 2007 earnings.

CCE $20.85 +1.55% Link ...

Keene Little : 2/13/2007 2:48:30 PM

SPX is pulling back to its 30-min 100 and 130-pma's, which consistently act as support and resistance, so here to we could see support. Two equal legs down from today's high is at 1441.26 so if this pullback is to be just a quick 3-wave corrective pullback then this is where it will likely find support. If you're just scalping moves today, think about taking some money off the table.

Keene Little : 2/13/2007 2:45:22 PM

The DOW is now back down to its broken downtrend line from last week, at about 12632, so any bounce from here back above 12647 would be bullish.

Keene Little : 2/13/2007 2:43:24 PM

I'll be filling in for Jim for tonight's Market Wrap so that means it'll be tougher for me to update the road maps this afternoon. I should get them done this evening so we'll have them available for tomorrow.

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2007 2:37:22 PM


DJ- Restaurant operator is 'surprised how rapidly' its Taco Bell brand is recovering after a recent E.coli outbreak at some of its Northeast restaurants, which cut earnings by $20 million. CEO forecasts 1%-2% same-store sales growth this year for the chain.

YUM $59.77 -1.66% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2007 2:35:07 PM

30-year Yield ($TYX.X) up 1.9 bp at 4.905% ...

iShares Lehman 20-year (AMEX:TLT) $87.25 -0.20% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2007 2:33:34 PM

DJ- Mexico's 30-year Bond Yield Down 0.37 Pct Points to 7.71%

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2007 2:31:30 PM

Stifel's history on NEW at this chart Link

Keene Little : 2/13/2007 2:31:23 PM

That spike down in the DOW makes me feel better. Now if SPX would join it with a new afternoon low then stops can be lowered to just above the post-2:00 bounce high.

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2007 2:27:09 PM

Upgrade ... New Century Financial (NEW) upgraded at Stifel Nicolaus to "hold" from "sell."

Keene Little : 2/13/2007 2:26:54 PM

MER is making new daily highs and that makes me a nervous short.

Marc Eckelberry : 2/13/2007 2:18:35 PM

YM 12671 is 10 DMA, hence the noise. I'm sorry I have to leave, but you should be able to make some more change. Just scalp around until one sticks, watching NQ weakness and ES 1446.

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2007 2:14:25 PM

US Energy (USEG) $5.37 +4.88% ... gets the trade at MONTHLY R2.

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2007 2:13:50 PM

ishares Japan (EWJ) $14.58 +2.24% ... challenges its recent highs of $14.57 found on 02/01/07.

Marc Eckelberry : 2/13/2007 2:13:40 PM

YM short 12674, raise stop to 12685. No risk trade now, no sense in getting hit. There is danger with ES above 1446.

Marc Eckelberry : 2/13/2007 2:12:55 PM

We are +21 in the bank and short YM 12674, stop 12684. Play around with it, I have to go. Hold over if not stopped.

Marc Eckelberry : 2/13/2007 2:07:58 PM

Short YM 12674, stop 12684.

Marc Eckelberry : 2/13/2007 2:07:46 PM

Exit YM long +8.

Marc Eckelberry : 2/13/2007 2:06:35 PM

YM long 12667, raise stop to even.

Keene Little : 2/13/2007 2:05:03 PM

So far, on a very short time frame and therefore subject to lots of error, the move down from the high is a 5-wave impulsive move (clearest on NDX and DOW 1-min charts). That says we should get a bounce and then a continuation lower. All the more reason for a stop at a new daily high now.

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2007 2:05:00 PM

Exxon/Mobil (XOM) $75.42 +1.09% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2007 2:03:53 PM

Exxon/Mobil CEO: No Details Yet On Venezuela Orinoco Discussion

DJ- Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) has already reached its target of producing 250,000 barrels a day from the Sakhalin-1 project in Russia's far east, chief executive Rex Tillerson said Tuesday.

"We're there today," he told reporters after delivering a speech at the Cambridge Energy Research Associates conference.

Exxon's fourth-quarter production of oil and natural gas increased by 6%, reflecting new output from major investments like Sakhalin-1. In a recent earnings conference call, Exxon executives said they hoped to reach the 250,000 barrels a day target by the end of the first quarter.

Turning to Indonesia, Tillerson said the Natuna contract with the state energy company Pertamina was "still in force." Discussions with Pertamina "continue to be ongoing," the executive said. "I'd expect any parties interested in Natuna to be aware of that."

According to media reports out of Jakarta, Pertamina may cooperate with Statoil ASA to develop the Natuna D-Alpha gas block, which has been frozen by the government's unilateral declaration that Exxon Mobil's contractual right to develop the block expired in 2005.

Government officials accused Exxon Mobil of failing to develop Natuna over the past 20 years of the previous contract. Pertamina holds a 24% ownership share in Natuna compared to Exxon Mobil's 76% stake. Natuna is estimated to contain 46 trillion cubic feet of recoverable gas reserves.

Meanwhile, Tillerson said Exxon is still waiting to hear from Venezuela's government about its plans for the Orinoco river basin. "We don't have any details yet," he said. The company expects that at some time, "the oil ministry will be contacting us to sit down."

Discussions for the transformation of the Exxon-operated Cerro Negro project into a joint-venture controlled by the Venezuelan government are in progress, an Exxon executive said during a conference call earlier this month. the company has said it is seeking an amicable resolution.

Rising nationalist rhetoric by Venezuelan officials has fostered concerns about the tone of the negotiations with major oil and gas companies operating in the Orinoco belt.

Marc Eckelberry : 2/13/2007 2:03:10 PM

Ecit YM short +13, go LONG YM 12667, stop 12657.

Keene Little : 2/13/2007 2:01:57 PM

You don't mind if I disagree with you do you Jane (wink)? I shorted the high again and am hoping this one will stick for a little while. Stop is at a new daily high though, just in case...

Jane Fox : 2/13/2007 2:00:03 PM

Very clear that today is buy the dips. Link

Keene Little : 2/13/2007 1:47:43 PM

For the DOW, since it broke its downtrend line from last Wednesday's high through Friday's high, it could come back down for a retest near 12632, only 5 points away. If that holds and then resumes its rally I think it would be time to switch sides and join the bulls.

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2007 1:46:28 PM

US 4-Week Bills: 5.135%; 79.59% At High

DJ- The U.S. Treasury awarded $24.00 billion in four-week bills at Tuesday's auction at a high rate of 5.135%.

The Treasury received bids totaling $54.21 billion and accepted $24.00 billion, including $404.92 million of noncompetitive tenders. The dollar price was 99.600611 and the investment rate, or bond-equivalent return, was 5.227%.

The Treasury received no noncompetitive tenders from foreign and international monetary authority accounts on a noncompetitive bidding basis.

The bid-to-cover ratio, an indication of demand, was 2.26, Treasury said.

Tenders submitted at the high yield were allotted 79.59%.

The Federal Reserve purchased $3.56 billion in bills for its own account. When the auction was announced, the Fed held $17.59 billion of maturing bills, and in Monday's auction the Fed purchased $14.03 billion in three- and six-month bills.

The bills awarded to the Federal Reserve are in addition to the public offering amount.

The median rate was 5.115%; that is, 50% of the amount of accepted competitive bids were tendered at or below that rate.

Of the competitive bids accepted, 5% were tendered at or below the rate of 5.090%.

Accepted indirect bids for the four-week bills were 15.7% of the total, up from 8.8% at the previous four-week bill auction.

This week's high rate was up from 5.045% at the previous four-week bill auction.

The high rate was the highest since the rate of 5.170% at the four-week bill auction on Nov. 28, 2006.

The issue is dated Feb. 15 and matures on March 15, 2007.

The CUSIP number on the four-week bill is 912795YX3.

Keene Little : 2/13/2007 1:43:48 PM

That little ascending wedge pattern I showed on the SPX 5-min chart (1:18) has now broken and typically we should see a relatively fast retracement of it. That would take SPX back down to 1438 which is where I'd look to cover a scalp short trade. If you're trying to swing trade this and want to avoid the noise then I'd now place my stop at about SPX 1446 and hang on here. We'll see how the decline develops (assuming we'll get one from here) to help determine whether or not it makes sense to just stay short for a bigger ride down.

Marc Eckelberry : 2/13/2007 1:37:48 PM

YM short 12680, lower stop to even or take +12 now.

Marc Eckelberry : 2/13/2007 1:34:55 PM

QM bid is hurting NQ. It might be helpng the energy sector, but it is inflationary and yields are rising.

Marc Eckelberry : 2/13/2007 1:33:06 PM

YM short 12680, lower stop to 12685. Take +7 if you are scalping. Upside risk is to 12710 if we break out again.

Marc Eckelberry : 2/13/2007 1:22:22 PM

12684 is that old gap and NQ can't get out of bed. Cowboys only.

Marc Eckelberry : 2/13/2007 1:21:51 PM

Scalp short YM 12680, stop 12688.

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2007 1:20:26 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 2/13/2007 1:18:34 PM

In addition to the neckline resistance near SPX 1444 there are some internal Fib projections for the leg up from yesterday's high that are pointing to SPX 1443.75 as the end of the run up (shown on the 5-min chart here). The bearish divergences also support the idea that we could be topping now. I like the idea of trying a short again, stop just above SPX 1445 (about ES 1450). Link

Tab Gilles : 2/13/2007 1:17:35 PM

Not to mention Friday is OpEx.

Top 10 NDX stocks Link

Profund UltraShort OTC Funds (USPIX) Link Proshares QID Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2007 1:09:50 PM

Could be a "quick six" for ES

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2007 1:09:16 PM

VIX 10.33 -11.02% ... plunging still ... WEEKLY S1.

Keene Little : 2/13/2007 1:09:02 PM

The "neckline" across the recent lows of SPX during the beginning of this month near 1444 should act as resistance if the current bounce is going to fail. Any press back above 1444 would be bullish.

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2007 1:02:31 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 2/13/2007 3:26:36 PM

WE are very overbot on the daily charts so expecting much more upside from here is unreasonable but the internals are telling me it is just as unreasonable to be short today.

Marc Eckelberry : 2/13/2007 12:58:13 PM

YM runs up to Feb 7 gap open (12684). ES still under 10 dma and NQ still struggling with 1793.

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2007 12:58:24 PM

DIA $126.56 +0.77% ... "crazy" spike to $127.05 from 11:30-11:35.

Keene Little : 2/13/2007 12:56:19 PM

Diamond tops are also not that uncommon after a long bullish run. Fits the bill here.

Keene Little : 2/13/2007 12:55:38 PM

Tab, I like the diamond-top formation and agree with your assessment here. The EW pattern fully concurs. Today's bounce could get a little more into the end of this week (chop up and down a bit) and then it'll be set up for a hard fall next week.

Tab Gilles : 2/13/2007 12:48:49 PM

Nasdaq 100 ($NDX)

On a weekly chart, I'm seeing a rare Diamond Top formation on the NDX. Similar as a head and shoulders pattern with a "V" shaped neckline. While diamond formations are usually reversal formations, they can also be continuation patterns. But with the $NDXA200, $BPNDX and $NASI giving overbought readings, I'm in the reversal side of this chart pattern.

If so how low?

The 1750 level had been resistance in the early part of 2006 and recently support in late December. Look for that level to be tested first. If that doesn't hold next would be the 200-ma 1650/1675 retracement.

Chart Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2007 12:48:35 PM


DJ- Home builder swings to 4Q net loss of $49.6 million, or 64c a share, amid land-related writedowns and other costs associated with deteriorating housing market. Revenue rises 13% to $3.54 billion, trumping estimates.

KBH $53.65 +3.29% Link ...

Keene Little : 2/13/2007 12:48:19 PM

With SPX moving above 1442.81, the low on February 8th, it has now overlapped in the wave count (which the DOW did much earlier) and that opens up several possibilities. First of all the move down from last week's high is left as a 3-wave move. That's either bullish (as a downward correction to the longer term rally) or potentially very bearish (if today's bounce is finishing up another 2nd wave correction, in which case we'll be due a strong 3rd of a 3rd wave down). Link

The super bearish wave count would be negated with a move above 1453. As the "red" count shows on the chart, that bearish count calls for a steep decline from here. But if we continue to see choppy 3-wave moves then we could be at the start of a longer choppy move higher into March. The bears need a break below 1430 (get below the uptrend line) to help their case.

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2007 12:43:15 PM

Wells Fargo (WFC) $36.03 +1.20% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2007 12:42:30 PM

S&P Banks (BIX.X) 407.97 +0.89% ... stick their head above WEEKLY R1.

Jane Fox : 2/13/2007 12:41:01 PM

Hopefully no one was caught short today. The odds don't always play out your favor but today they did.

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2007 12:40:34 PM

Buy Program Premium ... SPX 1,443.41

Marc Eckelberry : 2/13/2007 12:28:42 PM

ES old high at 1447.25. NQ still struggling with 1793.

Keene Little : 2/13/2007 12:28:27 PM

MER is not participating in the new highs here so that's a warning that the move in the index may not be "real" buying. Bulls want to see MER join the party with a move above 92.

Keene Little : 2/13/2007 12:25:24 PM

Nope, not ready to sell off. Getting the extension to the upside.

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2007 12:23:40 PM

Buy Program Premium ... SPX 1,442.21

Marc Eckelberry : 2/13/2007 12:11:47 PM

VIX 10 DMA support.

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2007 12:10:30 PM

Buy run wright alert ... for 100 shares of New Century (NEW) at the offer of $17.40. Stop goes $16.40 to begin.

Marc Eckelberry : 2/13/2007 12:05:19 PM

SMH is also still trading under its 200 dma (33.66).

Keene Little : 2/13/2007 12:05:35 PM

If you shorted that last high I'd now bring my stop down to just above it since price has no business making a new high again. Any continuation higher could see a decent little rally since the wave count would be extending in that case. Keep risk tight here.

Marc Eckelberry : 2/13/2007 12:03:50 PM

If NQ breaks above 1793 again, it could be headed for 1802/1805 zone which is heavy in MA resistance. But that might wait until tomorrow. Hard to tell, play this day by day. NQ is a long above 1789, it just gets murkier at 1793.

Marc Eckelberry : 2/13/2007 12:01:21 PM

NQ 1793.25 (61.8% 2007 retrace) is a problem for NQ once it tagged 50 ema 30mn which was also QQQQ 44 call resistance. In other words, if you shorted ES weekly pivot at 1446, you can feel pretty safe as long as NQ struggles with 1793.25. Same with a YM short at 12669, which is 10 dma and 61.8%. Lots of news tomorrow.

Keene Little : 2/13/2007 12:00:07 PM

NDX had bounced up this morning to its broken uptrend line from January 31st and didn't quite make it to a 38% retracement of the decline from last Friday's high. It's possible that that's all there will be to the bounce but it would be a very short correction, both in time and price. Therefore I wouldn't be at all surprised to see some kind of pullback followed by more upside into tomorrow before setting up another leg down in its bearish pattern. Link

Keene Little : 2/13/2007 11:49:30 AM

Right now we've got bearish MACD divergences against this high and this morning's high, which should be good confirmation of the divergence seen between the 3rd wave (this morning's high) and the 5th wave (the current high). A break below the last pullback low just before 11:00 would be confirmation of a larger move down in progress.

Jane Fox : 2/13/2007 11:47:52 AM

I had a request for my AD line and volume from a new subscriber Michel. Unfortunately though the attachment did not make the exchange through support. If Michel would email me at jbfox@charter.net I will send him the .eld directly.

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2007 11:46:23 AM

OEX.X alert 665.05 +0.60% ... "the Generals" get a trade at WEEKLY Pivot.

Jane Fox : 2/13/2007 11:45:45 AM

TICKs +1000

Jane Fox : 2/13/2007 11:45:27 AM

Just not a day to be short.

Keene Little : 2/13/2007 11:35:38 AM

A new high here, if met with bearish divergences, which appears it might be, should set up a good short play for this afternoon. We have a 5-wave move up from yesterday afternoon and we'll be due at least a pullback if not another leg down from here.

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2007 11:34:41 AM

SPX.X alert! 1,441.76 ... session high and sticks its head back above WEEKLY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2007 11:33:40 AM

Buy Program Premium ... SPX 1,440.71

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2007 11:32:56 AM

Reuters (source) - Saying BHP not currently working on a bid for AA.

Reuters Story Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2007 11:31:32 AM


DJ- Shares jump 6% after London's Times newspaper reports Australian-based mining giants BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto are independently considering bids worth about $40 billion for the U.S.-based aluminum giant. Analysts mixed on whether a bid from either company might be forthcoming.

AA $35.00 +6.38% Link ...

Jane Fox : 2/13/2007 11:22:11 AM

Even though ER and NQ have made new daily lows, these are still telling me to not even think short so be very careful out there today. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2007 11:21:05 AM

Cisco Systems (CSCO) $27.21 -1.16% ... defensive. Trades same level just prior to recent earnings.

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2007 11:14:53 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2007 11:02:14 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 2/13/2007 10:53:32 AM

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- R&G Financial Corp. (RGF) shares tumbled 25% to $5.76 in Tuesday morning trade. Late Monday, the New York Stock Exchange said it will suspend trading of the San Juan, P.R.-based financial holding company's shares due to its failure to file its 2005 10-K by an April 3 deadline. The NYSE will suspend trading of R&G shares on Feb. 22. R&G, which is completing restatements for 2002 through 2004, announced separately that it now expects the restatements to reduce stockholders' equity by $185 million to $200 million after-tax, up from the $168 million to $183 million it had previously estimated.

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2007 10:51:26 AM

S&P Revises State Of Israel Outlook To Positive; 'A-' LT FC Rating Affirmed

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2007 10:43:49 AM

British Petroleum (BP) $62.18 (unch) ... WEEKLY S1 $62.30.

Jane Fox : 2/13/2007 10:43:36 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Oceanaut Inc. on Tuesday filed to raise up to $150 million in an initial public offering with underwriters Citigroup and Maxim Group LLC. It's a blank check company organized under the laws of the Republic of the Marshall Islands to acquire vessels or one or more operating businesses in the shipping industry. Excel Maritime Carriers Ltd. (EXM) is the corporate parent of the firm. Oceanaut plans to trade on the American Stock Exchange under the symbol OKN.

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2007 10:42:42 AM

Chevron (CVX) $72.64 +0.44% ... WEEKLY Pivot higher at $73.25.

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2007 10:41:46 AM

Conoco/Phillips (COP) $66.70 +1.01% ... WEEKLY Pivot just above at $67.10.

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2007 10:41:05 AM

Exxon/Mobil (XOM) $75.14 +0.72% ... probes its WEEKLY Pivot ($75.15).

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2007 10:40:23 AM

Oil Companies Await Congressional Action On Royalties

DJ- Renegotiation of offshore oil and gas leases signed in 1998-1999 that omitted royalty price thresholds and may cost taxpayers billions in lost royalty fees can't make further progress until the U.S. Congress decides how it will legislate the issue, an assistant interior department secretary told a Senate subcommittee on Tuesday.

Several key lawmakers have introduced legislation that would prohibit new leases to companies that don't renegotiate the '98-'99 leases on both future and past production. But DoI Assistant Secretary Stephen Allred told the Senate Appropriations Subcommittee on Interior and related Agencies that companies were waiting to see whether the government would pass such legislation before moving ahead with negotiations.

Allred also said such legislation could prompt legal challenges that could delay new leases, resulting in an estimated 1.6 billion barrels of oil equivalent in delayed output, costing an estimated $13 billion in delayed royalties.

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2007 10:37:33 AM

US Oil Fund (AMEX:USO) $49.01 +1.32% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2007 10:37:07 AM

US House Begins Debate On Resolution Opposing Bush Iraq Plan

DJ- Almost four years into the Iraq war, the House on Tuesday began an historic debate on whether President George W. Bush's plan to add more U.S. troops to the bloody conflict would be a mistake.

Democrats, with some Republican support, were determined to approve a resolution disapproving of the president's decision to deploy more than 20,000 additional combat troops to Iraq.

The measure, expected to be approved by the House on Friday, was nonbinding. But the message was unmistakeable, said House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, of California, who maintained that Bush's policies "have not worked, will not work and must be changed."

Keene Little : 2/13/2007 10:36:10 AM

Keep in mind the bullish potential for the market to continue higher in the ascending wedges that we see all over the place (these are ending patterns but we don't necessarily know where the end is). The bullish SPX 120-min chart is a reminder of how it could look--chop sideways for a little while and then chop higher into March. While SPX 1453 is the "make" level for this count, any choppy sideways move through the rest of this week would elevate its potential. Link

Jane Fox : 2/13/2007 10:35:48 AM

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- March crude climbed 59 cents to $58.40 a barrel Tuesday morning. The International Energy Agency raised its 2006 global-oil product demand estimate by 111,000 barrels per day to 84.5 million and said it expects 2007 oil-product demand to climb by 273,000 barrels per day to 86 million because of higher-than-expected Chinese demand. March natural gas gained 5.4 cents to trade at $7.28 per million British thermal units.

Jane Fox : 2/13/2007 10:33:49 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Fed chief Ben Bernanke will walk into a Democratic lion's den this week and will try his best not to become a snack, analysts said.

On Wednesday and Thursday, Bernanke will have to grapple with the "neopopulist" views of some members of the new Democratic majority.

The term neopopulism describes an emerging economic philosophy of Democrats worried about the status of the middle class, flat wages and the loss of good jobs. These members tend to view globalization with suspicion and support curbs on free trade.

Wall Street economists expect an awkward hearing at best.

Where former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan was noted for discussing almost any issue with Congress, Bernanke has tried to testify as a quasi-"chief U.S. economist," discussing all the latest economic research on a topic but declining to give his personal views on the correct policy choice.

"Bernanke is sort of the 'Shell Answer Man' -- you ask him questions, and he gives you the answers, and he tells you the trade-offs. I don't think there is anything wrong with that," said Robert Brusca, chief economist at FAO Economics. "It is a good thing to be."

Conventional economics holds that Fed policy is not the right tool to deal with income inequality; that productivity is the key driver of real wages; and that, if the Fed tries to keep unemployment down, inflation will accelerate, Harris wrote in a note to clients.

Bernanke will testify before the Senate Banking Committee, traditionally the calmer hearing for Fed chairmen, on Wednesday, and will appear before the more unruly House Financial Services panel Thursday.

Bernanke has also pledged not to discuss matters unrelated to Fed policy.

"All of the things that are a problem -- China and free trade -- are not really on his plate. So it is hard to know how much he'll talk about them," Brusca said.

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2007 10:32:35 AM

Selling long partial position in US Energy (USEG) $5.29 +3.32% in personal account.

Jane Fox : 2/13/2007 10:29:07 AM

HEMPSTEAD, N.Y. (MarketWatch) -- The good news is that housing is not depressing the economy as much as the financial markets had feared. The bad news is that the rate of inflation is not being depressed, either.

Considering how much housing has fallen over the past year, along with its importance to the U.S. economy, the markets thought that business would be almost dead in the water by now and that Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke would be about to deliver a Valentine's Day present in the form of a cut in interest rates.

Instead, the economy appears to be chugging right along, and the markets are now worried that Dr. Bernanke's Valentine's Day testimony will focus on the possibility that a rate increase is still on the table.

Not a Valentine's Day massacre, to be sure, but not a box of chocolates, either.

So why hasn't housing pulled the economy down? After all, residential construction spending fell by an annual rate of almost 20% in the fourth quarter - no small amount in anyone's book.

There are a number of reasons, starting with erstwhile Fed chief Alan Greenspan's now-famous "conundrum." That was a reference to the fact that after the Fed hiked short-term interest rates a number of times from the middle of 2004 through late 2005, long-term rates had barely budged - something that's still true today.

Along with plenty of money and credit still sloshing around , this has served to cushion the decline in housing by enabling many homeowners to borrow at a fixed rate that's lower than adjustable rates.

Keene Little : 2/13/2007 10:28:27 AM

Quite a bit less bearish than what I showed for the DOW is this slight modification to the wave count on SPX that I showed earlier (9:23). Notice how the rally stopped at the top of a parallel down-channel created off the trend line between waves 1 and 3 with the parallel attached to wave-2. Link

This is a common technique to find out where wave-4 might end. This wave count suggests another trip back down toward 1430 where it should find support for another larger bounce into the end of the week. A rally above 1443 would negate this bearish count (but not necessarily put us on a bullish count yet).

Jane Fox : 2/13/2007 10:24:31 AM

Here is how the markets are trading in relation to their PDRs. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2007 10:22:13 AM

Alert! Compania Anom Venez (VNT) $17.18 +6.84% ... still trading but seeing headline out of Venezueala that securities regulators ordering 24-hour CANTV trading halt.

Jane Fox : 2/13/2007 10:20:33 AM

These are telling you which side you should be trading today. Link

Keene Little : 2/13/2007 10:16:30 AM

DOW tagged its Fib projection target at 12636 and is very close to its downtrend line from last week. It's a good place to try a short with a relatively tight stop. This morning's rally looks like too much too fast and another typical bear market flare-up (get used to them).

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2007 10:11:11 AM

Downgrade ... Merrill downgrades Ford Motor (F) $8.42 -2.65% ... based on valuation and near 30% rise in the stock since mid-December. (see 12/19/06 MM at 03:34:21 PM) Link

Keene Little : 2/13/2007 10:09:09 AM

On Friday, after breaking its uptrend line from January 26th the DOW had rallied back up yesterday morning for a retest of that line and failed. It's currently pressing back up for another test (it has pushed slightly above it). Similar result? If that trend line doesn't hold it back then the next trend line is the downtrend from last week's high, currently near 12645.

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2007 10:06:31 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 2/13/2007 10:02:38 AM

TICKS +1000. Rescue team has arrived.

Keene Little : 2/13/2007 10:02:00 AM

To keep the bulls from getting complacent there is the possibility that the wave count is building up for a strong move down this week. If the current bounce is another 2nd wave correction, as labeled on this DOW 60-min chart, then get ready for a strong 3rd of a 3rd wave down which could drop the DOW 200 points in a heartbeat. Link

I'm not saying that will happen but I will say the potential is there. That wave count would have the DOW rallying to a Fib projection at 12636 (should hold below 12650) and then get ready to rumble to the downside. The bearish count would be negated with a move above 12675 and if short the market that's where I'd have my stop.

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2007 9:54:56 AM

Upgrade ... Merrill upgrades General Motors (GM) $36.86 +3.22% to "buy" saying three things had changed since the brokerage's October 16 downgrade: GM's U.S. pension plan is over funded by $17 billion, "pressure for healthcare change is mounting" and the Detroit automaker's legacy assets are likely to be leveraged further.

Jane Fox : 2/13/2007 9:52:55 AM

These would keep me on the long side. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2007 9:52:38 AM

Ecuador's Central Bank: 2007 Budget Deficit Is Around $900 Million ... Had Estimated Deficit At $350 Million.

Jane Fox : 2/13/2007 9:51:22 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - Gold futures rallied early Tuesday, as the dollar fell after the Commerce Department said the U.S. trade deficit swelled to a new record in December.

Gold for April delivery was last up $6.10 at $673.40 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

On Monday, gold closed down 0.7%, or $5, at $667.30 an ounce. Last week, the contract hit its highest level in six months, with prices tracking strength in oil.

"The number that likely lit the fuse under gold today was the much wider than anticipated December trade gap," said Jon Nadler, an investment-products analyst at bullion dealers Kitco.com.

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2007 9:49:41 AM

YUM Brands: Taco Bell E. Coli Issue Cost $20M In Q4 Operating Earnings

YUM $59.76 -1.67% ...

Keene Little : 2/13/2007 9:43:52 AM

Considering the normally bullish opex week it's not hard to imagine that we could rally into the end of the week, even if it's a choppy affair. The pattern in the techs tells me there's a good chance NDX also finished the leg down from Friday's high which sets up a larger correction. The broken uptrend line from the end of January is one place where it might find resistance, currently near 1790, but assuming it will chop its way higher into the end of the week it could get up near 1800 for a typical retracement before rolling back over next week. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2007 9:39:06 AM

Trader's Note: ... The StreetTracks Gold (GLD) $66.22 +0.83% began trading at 08:20 AM ET (instead of 09:30 AM ET) starting Friday, 02/09/07.

Jane Fox : 2/13/2007 9:32:03 AM

AD line is +406 and AD volume above 0. Nothing too exciting yet.

Jane Fox : 2/13/2007 9:28:59 AM

Yesterday I mentioned the healthiest thing that could happen to this market is a 5 - 10% correction, which would take ES back down to at least the May 2006 highs and the 200EMA. However the first hurdle to overcome is the 50EMA that has been support since August 2006. A close below this MA would certainly get my attention. Link

Keene Little : 2/13/2007 9:23:33 AM

We've had an overnight bullish session that will give us a gap up open this morning so it would appear yesterday's low will be at least a short term bottom. It's not surprising considering the uptrend lines and moving averages that the major indices are testing. Buying the dips will be the modus operandi for quite a while.

The short term EW pattern, as labeled on this SPX 30-min chart, shows the 3rd wave in the move down from last week's high has completed and we're due a 4th wave correction (could be a very choppy affair so be cautious about scalping). Link

As for the bounce potential though, it's possible yesterday's low completed a 5-wave move which would mean we'd be due a much larger bounce to correct the leg down from last week's high. A typical retracement in that case would be 50%-62% which is SPX 1442-1445. It's also possible the daily trend line is going to hold and we'll see SPX march on up to new highs as per the bullish wave count, so stay disciplined if you're short. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/13/2007 9:18:34 AM

Illumina (ILMN) $34.93 ... 5.7 million shares blocked at $34.93 in pre-market trade.

Jane Fox : 2/13/2007 9:14:15 AM

Notice now Gold reacts to the fall in the US$. I took a YG short before the bell yesterday and was stopped at breakeven, the rise in the $ yesterday did not translate into much of a fall in Gold. I have usually found it dangerous to short Gold and why I suggested caution with the trade if you took it.

Crude cannot seem to break the $60.00/bl price but all indications from the daily chart say that it will eventually, which in turn is good for Gold. Link

Jane Fox : 2/13/2007 9:10:20 AM

Overnight session was mostly sideways but the higher highs in YM and ER give it a bullishness. Link

Jane Fox : 2/13/2007 8:55:06 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- XTO Energy Inc. (XTO) Tuesday reported fourth-quarter earnings of $429 million, or $1.16 a share, down from a year-ago profit of $453 million, or $1.22 a share. Excluding items, such a derivative fair value gain, the Fort Worth, Texas-based company posted adjusted earnings of $423 million, or $1.14 a share, in the latest quarter. Revenue rose 2% in the latest three months to $1.199 billion from $1.177 billion in the same period a year earlier. The average estimate of analysts polled by Thomson Financial was for a profit of $1.14 a share in the December period. Looking ahead, XTO said it expects annual production volume growth of 10% for 2007. The stock closed Monday at $50.05, down 1.7%.

Jane Fox : 2/13/2007 8:54:28 AM

BOSTON (MarketWatch) -- Home builder KB Home (KBH) Tuesday said it swung to a loss of $49.6 million, or 64 cents a share in the fourth quarter driven by previously announced land charges of $343.3 million. In a statement, Chief Executive Jeffrey Mezger said during the second half of 2006, "an oversupply of unsold new and resale homes, reduced affordability, and greater caution among potential homebuyers heightened competition among homebuilders and sellers of existing homes, prompting the aggressive use of price concessions and sales incentives." The result was pressure on profit margins, while results "were further affected by declining land values and the resulting charges we recorded in the fourth quarter to reflect lower land values," the CEO added. KB Home's shares lost 3 cents on Monday to $51.94.

Jane Fox : 2/13/2007 8:53:25 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The nation's trade deficit widened in December and swelled to a new annual record, a government report showed Tuesday.

The nation's trade gap widened by 5.3% in December, reaching $61.2 billion, the Commerce Department said.

Analysts surveyed by MarketWatch had expected the deficit to increase to $59.5 billion.

The Commerce Department also cut slightly its estimate of the trade deficit slightly for November, to $58.1 billion from $58.2 billion previously. This was the lowest trade deficit since July 2005.

Economists expect fourth-quarter growth in U.S. gross domestic product to be revised lower to about 2.5% from the initial estimate of 3.5% based on other data for December.

Market Monitor Archives