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Tab Gilles : 2/15/2007 12:55:57 AM

$NDXweekly chart w/Diamond Top Formation Link

Weekly $NAHGH/$NALOW/$NDX/$NDXA200 chart Link

Keene Little : 2/15/2007 12:47:42 AM

Interesting daily VIX chart after today's "price" action. After briefly punching down through its Bollinger Band, which has marked recent market reversals, the daily candlestick is a bullish hammer. Actually it's an even more bullish dragonfly doji or Takuri line and when found at support as it is, it's a potentially strong reversal candlestick. It needs a white candle tomorrow to confirm the signal, in which case it could signal a more important low in the VIX this time (high in equities). When the VIX gets back above 12, and certainly above 13, that will be the signal that we've very likely had a trend change. Link

Keene Little : 2/14/2007 10:07:18 PM

Thursday's pivot tables: Link and Link

OI Technical Staff : 2/14/2007 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2007 10:00:38 PM

Oooooeeee! ... just looked at a bar chart of EXPD. Link Bugger traded a low of $38.31 Tuesday morning, but a session high of $48.05 later in the day. Since its PnF chart was in a column of X at $45 on Monday, then "X got the squares" to $48.

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2007 9:51:21 PM

We/I covered a bearish play in EXPD Link on 08/01/06 at $40.02 and the rest on 08/03/06 at $41.32.

"the gloves come off" at $49. Bull risks about $4.00 to a reversing sell signal at $40. Bullish vertical count to $63. That's RISK= $4 to REWARD= $19.

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2007 9:44:57 PM

Is the tide about to change? Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2007 9:42:53 PM

Good Gravy! MICC Link and PCAR Link ... ya think there is some type of good news coming.

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2007 9:37:48 PM

Dorsey/Wright Stock Screen ... "give me NASDAQ-100 components ... same as my 09/14/19 post, but SYMBOL, PnF pattern, Date of that pattern, and CLOSE price. Most NDX/QQQQ components don't pay dividends, so StockCharts and Dorsey's PnF charts should be very similar. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2007 9:16:17 PM

Dorsey/Wright Stock Screen that I have for ... "give me S&P 100 components and most recent buy/sell signal, the DATE of that signal, the current CLOSING PRICE, and the SIGNAL (buy/sell) at this Link

Now, starting from 12/18/06 when SLB gave that REVERSING sell signal, that REVERSING took away 1 stock, or 1% from the S&P 100 Bullish % (BPOEX)

So... any stock with a REVERSING sell would be that stock's 1st sell signal, and a net loss of 1 stock to the BPOEX.

Those with a REVERSING buy, those are stocks that on that date and price I've type, would have seen a NET GAIN of 1 stock, or 1% to the BPOEX.

See how the Bullish % work. Pretty easy isn't it?

Now, look at Goldman Sachs (GS) ... its 5th buy signal was given at $220 on 01/24/07. Gosh, the "gloves came off" on that triple-top buy signal back in September at $158 didn't they?

IP is a stock that really interests me from the long side. They've really restructured the company, sold a bunch of land/forest, and are refocusing on core business. See Weyerhaeuser (WY) and just gave its 4th "buy me, buy me" signal?

See any "group think?"

Interesting how SLB, XOM and BHI gave reversing sell signals within about 2 weeks of each other. Now, PetroChina (PTR) isn't a component of the OEX, but after getting hit over the head with an iron skillet (i.e. SLB), we did OK with the PTR puts.

See where SLB closes? Has some resistance at $65, right where it gave that reversing sell signal.

Are you still short GOOG Link at bullish support trend? First test of bullish support trend can be painful for a bear.

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2007 8:13:12 PM

Now.. for MOST of us, we aren't buying/selling/shorting $1,000,000.00 of anything on an initial trade, then adding $50,000.00 on each subsequent confirming buy/sell signal and "following the herd/money." But INSTITUTIONS do just that! They leg in, and leg out of positions. In fact, there's an old saying that "institutions dump a position all at once." That can be VERY true, especially when they learn that the CATALYST, or REASON they bought/shorted the stock suddenly becomes invalid.

LOOOONG columns of O signal massive distribution, while LOOOONG columns of X signal massive accumulation, where not as much as a 3-box reversal is found.

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2007 8:04:19 PM

And for MS? When you look at Dorsey's charts ....

if you bought $1,000,000.00 at $62, then another $500,000.00 @ $65, then another $50,000.00 @ $70.00, then another $50,000.00 at $79.00, then another $50,000.00 at $81.00, then another $50,000.00 at $84.00, what MIGHT you do now?

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2007 8:02:10 PM

Hmmm .... when you look at Dorsey's charts ....

two "Wall Street" stocks give reversing lower sell signals on the same day. OK, that may be NEW/HBC related.

Buuuutttt.... if you bought $1,000,000.00 of MER @ $72, then $50,000.00 @ $73, then $50,000.00 at $77.00 and another $50,000.00 at $93.00, what MIGHT you do now?

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2007 7:56:18 PM

Ah! Now ... MER gave that "sell signal" on 2/12/07.

Here's another S&P 100 component that gave a "sell signal" that very same day.

Morgan Stanley (MS) Link at $80.00.

Now, for the most part, or recently at least, StockCharts.com's PnF chart looks similar to Dorsey's Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2007 7:42:52 PM

Here's a perfect example of "why" we get two different measures of bullish % sometimes between StockCharts.com and Dorsey/Wright. You see, when a company pays a dividend, StockCharts.com goes back and adjusts historical prices by that dividend amount. As you've probably noticed from some of my posts, dividends are increasing for those that offer a dividend.

Here's S&P 100 component Merrill Lynch (MER) $93.80 +1.62% PnF chart from StockCharts Link , where at this point, the first sign of any weakness would be a "sell signal" at $90.00 (where a column of O would go below a prior column of O).

Now here is Dorsey's "version" of true supply/demand where MER Link stock price is NOT adjusted historicaly for payment of dividends.

See that trade at $91 in MER on Dorsey's chart? That is the first "sell signal" MER has given since early July (blue 7) at $72.

StockCharts.com's MER chart not all that much different, but it still shows a "buy signal" intact, where it wouldn't give a "sell signal" until $90.00 now. It would look just like Dorsey's, but MER just recenlty paid a dividend.

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2007 7:16:40 PM

And another BIG mass of troops (a different set of stocks with 4 and 5-lettered stock symbols, over 3,000 of them) and StockCharts' NASDAQ Comp. Bullish % ($BPCOMPQ) Link ... Oh my! Signaling "bull confirmed" for the first time since last summer!

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2007 7:11:58 PM

Then you've got this BIG mass of troops and StockCharts' NYSE Bullish % ($BPNYA) Link , which separates into two piles (buy signal charts and sell signal charts) of over 3,000 stocks.

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2007 7:09:47 PM

It's like "the Generals" of the NASDAQ-100 are headed back onto the battle field, while some of "the Generals" of the S&P 100 (some overlap with NDX-100) aren't sure if they're coming or going.

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2007 7:07:39 PM

Then broaden out a bit with ...

Stockcharts.com's S&P 500 Bullish % ($BPSPX) Link

It looks almost identical to Dorsey's with Tuesday's measure of 77.62%.

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2007 7:01:07 PM

Then you've got ...

StockCharts.com's S&P 100 Bullish % ($BPOEX) Link which just reversed back lower.

Dorsey/Wrights' also just reversed back lower to 76%, then yesterday 02/13/07 added 3 new net buy signals Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2007 6:53:03 PM

StockCharts.com's NASDAQ-100 Bullish % ($BPNDX) Link

Dorsey/Wright's rose 3% yesterday to 72% and gives another "buy signal" Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2007 6:46:05 PM

Ohhhh gosh ... getting caught up on Monday and Tuesday's bullish % measures. Can really feel/observe the pressure.

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2007 5:45:29 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2007 5:27:38 PM

My VIX.X luck, I sell the 10.00 puts and with indexes above their "Max Pains" ... VIX goes out 9.00. Believe me... I've thought about it more than once. No thanks....

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2007 5:22:51 PM

Yep ... that's part of it. NEW $19.75 +6.23% and +13.51% from $17.40.

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2007 5:20:03 PM

Even more is the feeling a DIA long put and VIX call holder had on Monday evening. "If it will break lower...." It didn't and gets ramped higher.

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2007 5:17:42 PM

Ugh! ... combine all that with the YM's first test of MONTHLY Pivot (that pattern continues to find buyers) ... and it really makes sense.

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2007 5:14:02 PM

Sheeeooot ... SPX's 21-day SMA at 1,436. That was a "good buy."

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2007 5:12:33 PM

On 12/14/06 the SPX finished with 66:0 NH:NL.

Today's tally 80:0.

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2007 5:11:27 PM

Great observation Marc. Yes, the VIX.X did trade 9.70, same as that on 12/14/07 (see my MM Profiles).

Seems to work very SHORT term.

SPX closed 1,425 on 12/14/07, inched higher the next day, then about 5-days of distribution back to its rising 21-day SMA.

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2007 5:02:42 PM

Valero Energy (VLO) $55.91 +0.25% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2007 5:03:33 PM

Hmmmm ... starting to get a pretty good crack spread between oil and unleaded. (see 5 and 20-day Net% in US Market Watch)

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2007 4:58:18 PM

March Crude Oil futures (cl07h) settled down $1.06, or -1.79% at $58.00 on the nose.

Marc Eckelberry : 2/14/2007 4:53:49 PM

The more you trade, the more you realize that the VIX is the best divergence indicator out there. And confirmation, of course. But if you like to trade reversals, it is the best tool.

Marc Eckelberry : 2/14/2007 4:49:19 PM

Fading the highs on that VIX bounce was the closing trade. YM is back below monthly R1...

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2007 4:42:54 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2007 4:37:24 PM

Don't stop now Keene! ... ;)

The BIX.X did fade a bit from my 02:22:43 post.

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2007 4:32:44 PM

Bank Of England's Inflation Report page Link

Some "light reading" after you open up all your Valentine's cards.

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2007 4:28:19 PM

BoE Report Hints At Further Rate Rise ... FT.com story Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2007 4:26:33 PM

Hmmm what do you think about today's move in Treasuries and the dollar? Dr. Bernanke's comments, or Bank of England/Great Britain? .... ForexFactory's Economic Calendar Link

Unemployment claims fell a much larger than expected, but what was in that BOE Inflation Report?

Keene Little : 2/14/2007 4:23:00 PM

Interesting day. Nice jam job again. Gotta keep those mega banks' trading teams profitable with their cheap Feb calls picked up last Thursday/Friday. I'm scrambling to get charts updated for tonight's Wrap. I'm not done calling for a top, not by a long shot. Today has that potential.

Jane Fox : 2/14/2007 4:18:33 PM

Economic Reports for tomorrow:

8:30a.m. Initial Jobless Claims. For Feb 10 Wk. Expected: +4K. Previous: +3K.

8:30a.m. Jan Import Prices. Expected: -1.5%. Previous: +1.1%.

8:30a.m. Feb NY Fed Manufacturing Index. Expected: 11.5. Previous: 9.13.

9:15a.m. Jan Industrial Production. Expected: -0.1%. Previous: +0.4%.

9:15a.m. Jan Capacity Utilization. Expected: 81.6%. Previous: 81.8%.

12:00p.m. Feb Philadelphia Fed Business Index. 5. Previous: 8.3.

1:00p.m. Feb NAHB Housing Market Index. 5. Previous: 35.

Marc Eckelberry : 2/14/2007 4:16:58 PM

They are going to try and close YM above monthly R1 at 12764. That short was fun for about 30 mns.

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2007 4:13:24 PM

I was looking at today's list of most actives on suddenly HCBK jumped into view at #1.

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2007 4:11:15 PM

Oh ... just seeing news from last week that HCBK was being added to the S&P 500 (SPX.X) Link

Jane Fox : 2/14/2007 4:10:08 PM

Dow closes above 12700.

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2007 4:09:46 PM

On 02/06/07 HCBK traded a notable 42.2 million shares.

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2007 4:08:49 PM

Another 1.9 million crossed at $13.81

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2007 4:08:19 PM

Huuuuuge block of 3.3 million shares crossed at the close in Hudson City Bancorp (HCBK) $13.90 +1.53% ...

Marc Eckelberry : 2/14/2007 4:02:19 PM

OEX 670.18. How is that for control. 5 cents above a key multi yea fib.

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2007 3:59:44 PM

VIX.X 10.26 -0.87% ... gravitates, or elivates back toward WEEKLY S1

Marc Eckelberry : 2/14/2007 4:01:06 PM

Bulls need to close OEX above 670.13. 61.8% 2000/2002.

Marc Eckelberry : 2/14/2007 3:57:33 PM

Welcome to opex.

Marc Eckelberry : 2/14/2007 3:57:06 PM

Well, well, well. ES back in the channel as if nothing happened. The VIX does a key reversal off lows, nice tail behind it.

Keene Little : 2/14/2007 3:50:56 PM

The RUT has given up today's gains.

Marc Eckelberry : 2/14/2007 3:50:55 PM

YM is back down below 12772. Maddening, but that's the way it goes. Watch NQ 1818.75.

Keene Little : 2/14/2007 3:51:29 PM

If you shorted YM at 12775 with a stop at 12795 I'd keep my stop there and just hope it survives overnight. Just be sure to use the appropriate stop with your broker to be sure it gets triggered in the event of an overnight bullish move. I still like the short side from here as the only real question in my mind is whether it's THE top or just the top of wave-a in a larger a-b-c move that will take us higher into March. Regardless, we're at least due a pullback and that will give us time to evaluate the form of it.

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2007 3:30:07 PM

Marathon Oil (MRO) $93.06 +0.72% ... Adds 156M BOE To Proved Reserves In 2006.

Marathon Oil Corp. (MRO) on Wednesday said it added net proved reserves in 2006 of 146 million barrels of oil equivalent, excluding 45 million boe of dispositions. The company produced 134 million boe during the year, resulting in a reserve replacement of 109% for 2006.

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2007 3:26:51 PM

03:15 Internals found at this Link

Jane Fox : 2/14/2007 3:26:05 PM

ER is bouncing off its PDH whereas the other three are no where near their PDHs. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2007 3:17:05 PM

03:15 Market Watch found at this Link

Keene Little : 2/14/2007 2:45:10 PM

Still holding on and we could see this right into the close--try to keep today's gains from evaporating. The short side can still work but obviously not if they press it much higher.

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2007 2:34:32 PM

Hey! Both the 10-year and 30-year YIELD are right where they were last Friday.

The 5-day SMA on the 10-year is at 4.764%, while the 5-day SMA on the 30-year is at 4.860%.

Can kind'a eyeball what a 30-year fix-rate average for this week will be.

Jane Fox : 2/14/2007 2:27:47 PM

The MACD was giving you the classic bullish "falling as price moving sideways" but then it started to climb and never did get back to the highs from this morning and is now starting a bearish cross. No not time to short but certainly (like I said before) time to bail on your long positions. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2007 2:24:57 PM

I should say ... if your short/NAKED the BIX.X, you've got to do what you've got to do to keep things in check. It in NEVER good (in my opinion) to be short/NAKED at new highs when overhead supply doesn't exist.

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2007 2:22:43 PM

BIX.X 412.08 +0.90% ... for those that played the pre-Bernanke run, looks a little "overdone."

What reminded me of the MBA was the 10-year and 30-year Yield so low that banks margins are still going to be very narrow. Refinance was "robust," but purchases a little soft at 400.70. May be due to the cold weather across much of the nation last week.

Keene Little : 2/14/2007 2:22:09 PM

The wave pattern looks good for a completion here and the DOW is hitting its Fib target. I'd consider shorting YM here, 12775 with a stop at 12995 for now.

Keene Little : 2/14/2007 2:19:09 PM

A thought occurred to me on the NDX pattern about a potential bearish setup for this one as well. I've been showing my preferred count which is the bearish one with a negation of the count at a new high for February (so 1820). But the overall correctiveness of price action since mid January continue to leave a bearish taste in my mouth even if it rallies above 1820. Looking at the choppy price action in a bear flag it shows it could rally to about 1822 and still be part of the bear flag. Link

In addition to that there is a way for me to label the whole affair as a more complex version of an a-b-c bounce where wave-c = wave-a at 1819.78. Therefore I would expect 1820 could still be resistance but would give it some leeway up to around 1822 before turning bullish on this index.

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2007 2:18:12 PM

MBA's Weekly Application Survey at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2007 2:17:41 PM

Almost forgot!

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2007 2:14:16 PM

Oil Service HOLDRs (OIH) $138.69 +0.07% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2007 2:12:17 PM

Ahhhh... It might as well be Valentine's Day.

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2007 2:11:02 PM

One could say bond bulls are having a "love fest" with Dr. Bernanke today.

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2007 2:09:45 PM

30-year Yield ($TYX.X) down 7.2 bp. Yield low of 4.827% has matched that of 02/08/07.

Marc Eckelberry : 2/14/2007 2:03:27 PM

If we lose 12764, you can try shorting again, otherwise forget it for today unless you are a good scalper.

Keene Little : 2/14/2007 2:03:21 PM

Getting a little pullback so "one more high" could do it. I'm liking the setup for a short play even though I'm always reluctant to plan for an afternoon reversal. So be cautious and trade light but a new high should be a good short. DOW 12754/YM 12786 are the Fib targets to watch.

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2007 2:03:15 PM

NEW Options Montage at this Link ... Hey, check out the notable DECLINE in OI from 02/08/07 benchmark Link in the Feb $30 Puts (NEW-NF).

Tough to say if the BUILD in the NEW-CD is dirctional bull, or COVERED CALL. A heck of a lot of stock traded down below $20.00.

Keene Little : 2/14/2007 1:57:59 PM

SPX is now hitting the top of its ascending wedge (trend line drawn from the December high across the February 7th high) at 1456. We could get a brief throw-over so if that happens and then drops back below the 1454 then I'd say we topped out for at least the day.

Jane Fox : 2/14/2007 1:56:56 PM

Do not buy these new highs.

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2007 1:52:30 PM

Baidu.com (BIDU) $115.05 +1.54% ...

Marc Eckelberry : 2/14/2007 1:51:57 PM

I'm sure they had my exact number, never fails.

Marc Eckelberry : 2/14/2007 1:51:35 PM

Stopped out -10.

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2007 1:51:13 PM

Google (GOOG) $466.91 +1.70% ...

Keene Little : 2/14/2007 1:51:09 PM

Getting the new highs. Now keep an eye on DOW 12754 area in case that becomes resistance since it's possible that will mark the end of this run. If it will, we first need a small pullback and then final push higher. If we're getting bearish divergences across different time frames then it should be a good time to consider shorting this. Otherwise don't get in the way of the trend. Looking for an afternoon reversal is not necessarily a good idea.

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2007 1:50:47 PM

Yahoo! (YHOO) alert $30.79 +4.16% ... clean break above recent earnings report.

Jane Fox : 2/14/2007 1:48:46 PM

TICKs are +800 but I do not see a lot of upside from here because the VIX is not anywhere near it daily lows. Time to exit stage left on your long positions.

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2007 1:46:26 PM

There it is ... 10:56:06 AM on 02/08/07. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2007 1:45:35 PM

I'm looking for that options montage I showed. Want to check out changes in OI since then.

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2007 1:44:43 PM

Hey ... on 02/28/07 NEW was trading $20.25 at 02:57:27 PM.

Marc Eckelberry : 2/14/2007 1:43:49 PM

I thought we would back and fill some more. Stay on your toes. Watch NQ highs. I am still targeting a test of 12725/12736, which would be a buy. But we have to fail here, right now.

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2007 1:40:28 PM

New Century (NEW) $20.44 +10% ... here's a daily interval bar chart with retracement that I've been using to monitor the "reaction to the news." Yesterday, I monitored the March $20's very close from the open as I thought the stock had a bounce in it. There was a rather firm "offer" from the open to the close at $1.40 and he/she wouldn't budge. Yes, implied volatility was "out of this world." But I still want to keep in mind ... $20 + 1.40 = $21.40 as it relates to "why" the fib levels are where they are. Here's the chart Link ... With NEW's PnF chart Link having exceeded its bearish vertical count of $29.00, I'm still VERY cautious longer-term.

Marc Eckelberry : 2/14/2007 1:37:30 PM

Conservative traders exit and take +5. Other stay in , but understand the risk.

Marc Eckelberry : 2/14/2007 1:36:56 PM

The DOW is only up 2% for the year, so there is much more upside if bulls take over. This trade is not a sell and hold.

Keene Little : 2/14/2007 1:36:50 PM

Updates on the RUT charts--the new high today negated the bearish wave count (by rallying above 817) so this is the bullish count. It calls for a pullback for the next week or so before pressing higher again into March. Link

From a more bearish perspective, today's high could be finishing the wave count for the move up from mid-January. Notice that the RUT is again pressing the top of its longer term up-channel from 2004. Short term we're seeing bearish divergences (confirming the wave-iii and wave-v highs on the chart) but we could see a minor push higher today so it might be a tad early to think about trying the short side again. However, this chart says bulls can't get complacent here. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2007 1:28:31 PM

NEW $20.25 +8.92% ... A "love fest"

Keene Little : 2/14/2007 1:26:59 PM

Thanks Jeff, we'll continue to just let price dictate which way to look.

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2007 1:25:44 PM

Ooooo. GRMN was dropped from the call play list into earnings. I saw it on the list a couple of days ago.

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2007 1:25:03 PM

Keene wrote that wrap. Fantastic ... simply fantastic.

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2007 1:24:14 PM

Excellent Wave charts in last night's wrap. Good to see the BULL and bear wave possibility. Kind'a like a pivot where action can be taken depending the on outcome.

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2007 1:18:07 PM

PetroChina (PTR) $122.70 -0.08% ... still sitting there.

Jane Fox : 2/14/2007 1:15:10 PM

THe VIX is moving up at the same time as the AD volume which negates some of the bullishness from the AD volume. I think the easy money has been made already today.

Marc Eckelberry : 2/14/2007 1:14:14 PM

I am hoping they are rotating into faster growth stocks and out of the DOW.

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2007 1:13:20 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 2/14/2007 1:12:24 PM

YM R2 is resistance, but it is a scary spot for bears. And they scare pretty easily these days.

Marc Eckelberry : 2/14/2007 1:11:31 PM

VIX 10 is resistance. I can't believe I am typing this. Are we headed for zero volatility?

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2007 1:03:48 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2007 12:56:56 PM

Not a alot there ... "Entering 2007 with a record contract backlog" is relatively positive, but not all that futuristic. No comment regarding possible impact on pending legislation regarding energy subsidies.

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2007 12:51:06 PM

RIG's Earnings Press Release Link

Keene Little : 2/14/2007 12:50:33 PM

The daily chart of the DOW is the other (big) reason why I think bulls need to be careful chasing this higher. The wave count for the move up from July shows where wave-5 = wave-1 at 12733.50 which was tagged today. Price has pressed back up to the top of its ascending wedge. The setup could not be clearer for a short. It's just nailing the top that's been so difficult as this wedge has morphed into more a-b-c's higher (which is what corrective patterns do and why they're so hard to trade). Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2007 12:49:38 PM

That (RIG) would be an EXCELLENT "like stock" to set some alerts on if trading BHI.

Marc Eckelberry : 2/14/2007 12:48:39 PM

If you want to leave it lower or at even, please do so. We might get stopped and get to 12800, so use caution. I just can't be arund all the time today. If stopped out, re-enter at 12801, stop 12811.

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2007 12:48:32 PM

TRANSOCEAN 4Q NET QUADRUPLES

DJ- Offshore-drilling contractor reports net income of $621 million, or $2.05 a share, amid 80c in gains. Analysts expected EPS of $1.19. Revenue jumps 54% to $1.19 billion.

RIG $76.93 -1.24% Link ... that's a tough supply/demand chart on first test of trend. RIG's high/low has been $79.00/$76.70

Marc Eckelberry : 2/14/2007 12:47:35 PM

Alert: Short YM 12762, raise stop to 12772.

Marc Eckelberry : 2/14/2007 12:47:12 PM

Thy know everyone is sitting at monthly R1 stops. I will raise it a hair.

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2007 12:45:25 PM

OFFICE DEPOT 4Q NET JUMPS 27%

DJ- Office-supply retailer posts earnings of $135 million, or 48c a share. Excluding items, firm earns 54c. Sales rise 3% to $3.84 billion. Analysts expected earnings of 52c on revenue of $3.89 billion.

ODP $36.57 -2.50% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2007 12:43:16 PM

US RETAIL SALES UNEXPECTEDLY FLAT

DJ- Sales are flat in January, with auto and parts sales dropping 1.3%. December overall sales are revised higher to 1.2% from an earlier reported 0.9% advance. Wall Street expected an increase in January sales of 0.4%.

Keene Little : 2/14/2007 12:42:39 PM

Here's a close-up view of the DOW and the wave count I mentioned in my last post (about why the DOW could be probing for a top here). This wave count calls for a minor new high with a Fib projection at 12754 where the move up from Monday would have two equal legs up. That last little move higher though is a typical "no-show" wave (it might have been in the little stair-step higher this morning) so I wouldn't plan on it but watch for the possibility for a short there. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2007 12:42:01 PM

Meeeowwww .... CAT $66.28 +2.39% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2007 12:41:34 PM

DEERE 1Q NET UP 1%, BOOSTS VIEW

DJ- Shares jump 9% as heavy-equipment maker's 1Q results top forecasts and firm raises its fiscal-year earnings outlook. Deere has net income of $238.7 million, or $1.04 a share, as revenue increases 5% to $4.43 billion amid strength outside North America.

DE $112.64 +9.71% Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2007 12:39:56 PM

COKE 4Q NET FALLS 22%; REVENUE BEATS VIEWS

DJ- Soda giant reports net income of $678 million, or 29c a share, hurt by 23c impairment charge. Revenue rises 7% to $5.93 billion, with worldwide unit case volume up 4%. Wall Street expected EPS of 50c.

KO $47.81 -0.82% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2007 12:37:24 PM

General Motors (GM) $36.36 +0.05% Link ... this "Dow Dog" still looks "cheap"

MACD on MONTHLY interval bar chart -0.607 threatens to get above zero. Hasn't been able to do that since falling below in October 2000.

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2007 12:33:18 PM

CHRYSLER TO CUT 13K JOBS, SEEKS 2008 PROFIT

DJ- Job cuts to take place during the next three years, with 11,000 hourly and 2,000 salaried employees losing their jobs. Chrysler will also idle a Newark, Del., plant, cut shifts at three plants and make a $3 billion powertrain investment. Auto maker intends restructuring to result in 2008 profit following 2006's $1.5 billion loss. DaimlerChrysler reports lower-than-expected 4Q net profit of $752 million. Full-year operating profit slightly beats the German-U.S. auto maker's target.

DCX $67.85 +5.27% Link ... That's a new 52-weeker.

Keene Little : 2/14/2007 12:28:58 PM

The large spikes up we've seen the past two days smell like a blow-off top. At least it has that potential. When I look at the 2-day move up in the DOW I also see that possibility in the wave count. The big spike up from Monday's low, even though it's very sharp, is actually only a 3-wave move so far. Ideally we'll see a minor push higher to complete the 3rd wave up (which could be the c-wave) and this could complete the 5th wave in its ascending wedge from November. Link

Because we've been in an ascending wedge, and as I've stated many times, these are very difficult to figure out where they're ending since it can easily morph into a larger corrective move higher, as it's been doing for months now. The risk is chasing it higher but obviously it's been equally risky picking a top. But I like the fact that the techs still hold a bearish wave count here and if the DOW is topping here, the indices could be in synch for a start down.

I'll continue to test where I think a top will be and if it turns out not to be, then I take a small loss and wait for the next one. We could be close again to the point where I'll be again picking a top. When I get it, it's going to be a huge winner so I don't mind multiple attempts especially since I think we're very close to finding it.

Marc Eckelberry : 2/14/2007 12:17:57 PM

If we hit 12736, make a choice to book profits or hang on. I am targeting 12721, maybe even 12710. But they could very well hold 12736 and close back at highs. Up to you. Trade is +15 now, it is a good sign that ES lost 145775. Support is 1456 below that.

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2007 12:13:38 PM

Oooooeeee! ... speaking of getting "exercised" ... iShares Lehman 20-year (TLT) $88.07 +0.95% ... TLT-CJ $0.75 x $0.90

Marc Eckelberry : 2/14/2007 12:09:55 PM

Short YM 12762, lower stop to 12767.

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2007 12:09:30 PM

The "other alternative" to my 12:06:23 is to buy back the NEW-CD at the offer of $1.65, then close out the underlying long position in NEM at $19.80.

Marc Eckelberry : 2/14/2007 12:08:15 PM

What is going on with OEX? If it can't break out today, when can it?

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2007 12:06:23 PM

Swing trade long a protective put and purchase one (1) of the New Century Financial NEW Mar $17.50 Puts (NEW-OW) at the offer of $0.90.

NEW $19.80 +6.50% ...

Keene Little : 2/14/2007 12:05:58 PM

Here are updates to the GOOG charts. The move down from the January high is not very clear from an EW count perspective so there's lots of room for subjective interpretation. Therefore the key levels of 506 to the upside and 425-437 to the downside (unfortunately a wide range) are needed to confirm one count over the other. The top of the gap near 450 is an obvious support level so any break below that could see some quick selling. As for upside, the choppy price action makes it difficult to figure out how high the current bounce could get so I don't see a good setup there at the moment.
GOOG bullish: Link
GOOG bearish: Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2007 12:03:28 PM

I agree ... let's "hedge some risk" ...

Marc Eckelberry : 2/14/2007 12:00:12 PM

ES is more dangerous to short than YM because of techs leading the way today: Link

Marc Eckelberry : 2/14/2007 11:54:29 AM

ES 1457.75 should hold, if not, we will drop faster than I thought.

Marc Eckelberry : 2/14/2007 11:54:08 AM

Take +7 partial if trading multiple contracts. Let the rest ride.

Marc Eckelberry : 2/14/2007 11:51:37 AM

NQ needs to hold 1818.75, weekly R1.

Marc Eckelberry : 2/14/2007 11:50:35 AM

YM short 12762, lower stop to 12771. Risking only 9 points now. 12756 i23.6% projection January and needs to hold for bulls.

Marc Eckelberry : 2/14/2007 11:43:58 AM

If they get over this hump, next YM target is 12804, so be disciplined with stops.

Keene Little : 2/14/2007 11:43:55 AM

This is the bearish road map for CME if it were to drop below 530 (seems miles away on a day like the past 2 days). Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2007 11:42:03 AM

Baker Hughes (BHI) $71.39 +0.54% ...

BHI-CO now $1.05 x $1.10

Keene Little : 2/14/2007 11:41:42 AM

CME's bounce should turn lower and from a Fib standpoint it looks close to topping in its current bouce from Monday (580-582 looks like a good place to top out if it hasn't already done so). I'm expecting to see CME head back down as part of a larger correction. This chart is the "bullish" chart for CME even though it calls for a pullback before we'll see new highs. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 2/14/2007 11:41:09 AM

This is a risky trade, I know, so please only use risk capital.

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2007 11:40:50 AM

Oil Service HOLDRs (OIH) $138.45 -0.10% ... slip red. Only equity-based index/sector in US market watch to do so at this point.

Marc Eckelberry : 2/14/2007 11:37:19 AM

Since we are at bottom of VIX range and hitting monthly R1 on YM, I think there is no other swing trade than short, even though the overall trend is ultra bullish. Nothing goes up in a straight line. Target is 12710 if 12736 fails on a retest.
You can hedge the trade with an NQ long on a drop, since techs should do better now with lower oil, if 1818.75 holds.

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2007 11:36:47 AM

Good Gravy! ... New Century Financial (NEW) $19.99 +7.53% ...

It is possible that within the next several sessions, should NEW close above $20.00 that a covered call writer gets the option exercised. For those that have never been "exercised" you simply deliver your long shares, and the option your wrote/sold is closed, or the legal and binding contract goes away and you keep the premium.

As currently profiled, I would think any trader would have NO PROBLEM being long NEW at $17.40 and having the stock called away at ($20.00 + $1.35 = $21.35)

Keene Little : 2/14/2007 11:33:50 AM

The bottom line though is if the Fed is pumping money into the monetary system like there's no tomorrow (which there won't be if they keep this up), then bears can't fight the Fed, at least not yet. It's a war the Fed will lose but we just don't know when.

Marc Eckelberry : 2/14/2007 11:32:16 AM

ES daily chart: Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2007 11:32:10 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

Note: Dates of 02/14/07 in BLUE are this morning's activity.

Keene Little : 2/14/2007 11:30:38 AM

Marc raises a good point about the VIX. Each time it has hit its Bollinger Band we've seen a reversal. And we continue to see the bullish divergence on the VIX (bearish for equities). Bulls need to be careful here. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 2/14/2007 11:29:21 AM

Here are the VIX and VXN envelopes I use. They work just fine: Link Link

Marc Eckelberry : 2/14/2007 11:27:38 AM

It looks crazy, but it isn;t.

Marc Eckelberry : 2/14/2007 11:27:12 AM

YM short 12762, raise stop to 12775, at least for now.

Marc Eckelberry : 2/14/2007 11:25:49 AM

I will pots those VIX/VXN charts in a minute. I am too busy trading around this.

Marc Eckelberry : 2/14/2007 11:25:26 AM

It doesn't matter, Jane. I look at VIX and VXN envelopes and we are at the lower edge. Longs are not that safe actually.

Jane Fox : 2/14/2007 11:24:29 AM

I know Marc and I are on opposite ends of trades but these are telling me long is the only way to go right now. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2007 11:22:45 AM

11:05 Internals found at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 2/14/2007 11:21:24 AM

YM short 12762, rise stop to 12769.

Marc Eckelberry : 2/14/2007 11:20:44 AM

Shorting monthly R1 at 12764. tight stop. Also ES hit trendline R

Marc Eckelberry : 2/14/2007 11:20:10 AM

Short YM 12762, stop 12767.

Jane Fox : 2/14/2007 11:16:07 AM

If you took the ER long you could probably put your stop to breakeven now.

Tab Gilles : 2/14/2007 11:09:12 AM

Oil Service HOLDRs (OIH) $138.92 Link Link

OIH portfolio charts... Link

Take a look at Ensco Int'l (ESV), they report on the 22nd. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2007 11:07:07 AM

11:05 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 2/14/2007 11:06:26 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - Chrysler on Wednesday joined the ranks of its struggling domestic peers when its German-American parent said it will slash 13,000 jobs at the money-losing division by 2009 and idle a Delaware plant in a bid to save $4.5 billion.

DaimlerChrysler (DCX) also didn't rule out the sale of Chrysler, which has been slammed by a consumer shift away from its truck-heavy lineup in favor of smaller, more fuel-efficient cars made by the likes of Toyota Motor (TM). As is typically the case, Wall Street applauded the wrenching overhaul. U.S.-listed shares jumped 4.5% to $67.33, touching levels not seen in seven years.

Keene Little : 2/14/2007 11:06:26 AM

The techs are up the strongest today but the chart has not yet turned bullish. The preferred count remains the bearish one as shown on the NDX chart here. The downtrend line from the January high is currently near 1814 so that bears watching if NDX presses higher. The 1820 level remains the key level that would negate this wave count. Link

The difficulty at the moment is reconciling the difference between the NDX bearish wave count and the SPX/DOW bullish wave count. That's why I urge caution about the bullish wave counts shown earlier. With the minimum upside Fib projections having been met, it remains very risky for bulls (for bears too obviously).

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2007 11:04:46 AM

EIA: Weekly Percent Utilization of Refinery Op. Capacity ... falls to 86.64% from prior week's 87.34%.

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2007 11:03:26 AM

EIA: Weekly Refinery Operable Capacity rose by 3,000 barrels per day to 17,400,000.

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2007 11:01:53 AM

My # days of supply comes in at 21.37. Up slightly from my prior week's 21.33.

Keene Little : 2/14/2007 11:00:35 AM

Interestingly OEX is still struggling with its 670 level. Its most recent high was last week's 670.65 (today's high so far is 669.98). Today's finish will be important since a failure at this level again could leave a potential triple top.

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2007 11:00:51 AM

EIA: Weekly Gross Inputs Into Refineries down 119,000 barrels/day @ 15.07 million bpd.

This is less than the 15.914 from work we did last week.

Jane Fox : 2/14/2007 10:58:31 AM

I think ER is in a very good position for a long. Internals are very strong and you have a very clear spot to put your stop, right under the support at 817.60. Remember ER is a mover so don't put your stopp too close.

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2007 10:57:20 AM

EIA: SPR no change.

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2007 10:56:49 AM

EIA: Weekly Heating Oil Stockpiles down 2.7 million barrels.

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2007 10:56:00 AM

EIA: Weekly Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel Stockpiles down 1 million barrels.

Keene Little : 2/14/2007 10:55:55 AM

With SPX moving above 1453 we move to the bullish count on that one as well. With the same caution as for the DOW (failure could occur at any time), this shows my best guess how I think the rally will proceed from here. Link

The top of its ascending wedge is near 1456 so watch for resistance there if this presses a little higher today. It's possible we'll then get a pullback (or chop sideways for a week) and then another final leg higher (to give us an a-b-c move up from Monday's low for the 5th wave). The upward path here says we'll rally into another potential turn window in March. The key level for this count is Monday's low--a break below 1431 would negate this bullish count.

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2007 10:55:07 AM

EIA: Weekly ULS Diesel Stockpiles down 120,000 barrels.

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2007 10:53:59 AM

EIA: Weekly Distillate Stockpiles down 3 million barrels.

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2007 10:53:05 AM

EIA: Weekly Gasoline Stockpiles down 2 million barrels.

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2007 10:52:01 AM

EIA: Weekly Crude Oil Stockpiles down 590,000 barrels. (pretty close to work we did last week)

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2007 10:38:46 AM

Swing trade sell covered call alert ... let's sell one (1) of the Baker Hughes BHI Mar $75 Calls (BHI-CO) at the bid of $1.40.

BHI $72.40 +1.40%.

Keene Little : 2/14/2007 10:34:19 AM

While I show the Fib projections and the top of the ascending wedge above 12800 the one caution for bulls is that the current move up, wave-c of 5, could truncate. The fact that the DOW has reached the level where wave-c = 62% of wave-a, at 12702, it means the minimum upside has been achieved and a failure could occur at any time. Since we're probing for a top it's important to keep in mind that a strong sell off could come out of the blue. Stay vigilant.

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2007 10:32:54 AM

Baker Hughes (BHI) $71.93 +1.29% ... earnings tomorrow morning, before the bell.

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2007 10:31:52 AM

Oil Service HOLDRs (OIH) $139.46 +0.61% ... have stuck their head back above a rounding lower 200-day SMA again. 3rd-time a charm?

Jane Fox : 2/14/2007 10:29:55 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. businesses worked down their inventories in December after a sharp buildup in previous months, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday.

Inventory levels were unchanged, as expected, while sales increased 1.3%. It's the slowest growth in inventories since July 2005. Inventories of autos and building materials fell rapidly.

The inventory-to-sales ratio fell back to 1.28 in December from 1.30 in November. It's the lowest level of inventories in relation to sales since August. The typical business has goods on hand to meet about 39 days of sales.

In the past year, business sales are up 4.4%, while inventories are up 6%. The figures are not adjusted for price changes.

The inventory report is the final piece of the puzzle needed for the revision to fourth-quarter growth. Ahead of the report, economists said gross domestic product growth would likely to be revised sharply lower to about 2.3% from 3.5% initially reported.

Keene Little : 2/14/2007 10:28:43 AM

With the DOW as the first index to hit its upside key level for the market, by making a new high, we now know price is in the bullish EW count. That moves this count to the preferred count and calls for more rally up to the top of its ascending wedge which also matches some Fib projections based on the moves up from November--in the 12804-12845 area. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2007 10:26:07 AM

Disclosure ... I currently hold bullish position in CAT.

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2007 10:25:50 AM

Bullish swing trade long alert for one (1) of the Caterpillar CAT Aug $65 Calls (CAT-HM) at the offer of $5.20.

CAT $65.92 +1.19%

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2007 10:21:23 AM

shhoooot ... CAT $65.80 +1.66% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2007 10:20:08 AM

Good Gravy! ... Dow Jones Home Construction (DJUSHB) 741.78 +3.02% Link ... bulls can leverage here with tight stop at 715, or just under 700.

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2007 10:18:16 AM

Wells Fargo (WFC) $36.06 +0.52% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2007 10:17:17 AM

New Century Financial (NEW) $19.64 +5.64% Link ... X gets 2 squares this morning.

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2007 10:16:15 AM

HSBC Holdings (HBC) $90.01 +0.42% Link ...

Keene Little : 2/14/2007 10:14:49 AM

It's not as if Bernanke said anything the market didn't already know and the threat of raising interest rates should not be this bullish. I think the Fed decided to inject money into the market at this time to be sure the bears don't get any bright ideas. It's well known the Fed hates short players.

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2007 10:15:00 AM

Regional Bank Index (BKX.X) $120.17 +0.59% Link ... that's an all-time high. X gets the square at 120.00

Jane Fox : 2/14/2007 10:12:04 AM

Dateline WSJ - WASHINGTON -- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernnake signaled Wednesday that he's comfortable with current interest rate levels but stands ready to resume the Fed's tightening campaign if inflation doesn't moderate as the Fed expects.

"So far, the incoming data have supported the view that the current stance of policy is likely to foster sustainable economic growth and a gradual ebbing of core inflation," Mr. Bernanke said in prepared testimony to the Senate Banking Committee.

However, Mr. Bernanke said twice in his prepared remarks that the Fed's "predominant" concern is that inflation won't come down as expected, and cautioned that the central bank is "prepared to take action to address inflation risks if developments warrant."

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve Board on Wednesday said it expected core inflation to remain steady through this year before declining in 2008, while also scaling back its expectations for economic growth, as lower energy and commodity prices will help restrain price pressures.

The Fed expects inflation, as measured by the price index for personal consumption expenditures minus food and energy, to average 2.0%-2.25% for 2007 and 1.75%-2.0% in 2008. That "central tendency" forecast for 2007 from the Fed was in line with the FOMC's previous forecast for the current year.

Looking further ahead, the Fed's projections for 2008 core inflation to fall to 1.75%-2.0% indicate central bank officials may not be comfortable with inflation hovering around the upper limit of the Fed's understood comfort level of 1-2% growth in core inflation.

Keene Little : 2/14/2007 10:11:41 AM

With these quick spikes up the past two days I think I know what the M3 money supply chart will look like at the end of this week. It looks to me like the Fed has been busier this week.

Jane Fox : 2/14/2007 10:10:44 AM

This is not only nuts it is really nuts. Hopefully you took my advise and did not try and short this. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2007 10:12:48 AM

Fed's Bernanke:

Will take time to ensure inflation is slowing.

Current policy stance fosters growth, disinlflation.

Inflation lower, but still "predominant" risk

High resource use an "important" inflation risk.

Prepared to take action on inflation if needed.

US poised for moderate economic growth in '07 and '08.

Signs of housing stability but still a drag on GDP

Productivity trends "appear favorable."

Subprime mortgage delinquencies up "appreciably."

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2007 10:06:55 AM

It wasn't a "quick six" but ES bulls have plenty of shorts scrambling at the offer here.

Keene Little : 2/14/2007 10:05:32 AM

OEX is back up for another test of the 670 area which has been a tough wall of resistance so keep an eye on it here to see if this is all there will be or if we've got a real breakout in progress.

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2007 10:04:39 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Keene Little : 2/14/2007 10:03:26 AM

That's quite the pop in both equities and bonds.

Jane Fox : 2/14/2007 9:58:07 AM

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- Fund managers believe that the global economy is moving back towards a mid-cycle phase, raising the possibility that another expansion phase could be in the works, according to Merrill Lynch's newest monthly fund manager survey.

During the last two years, fund managers have described the economic cycle as between mid-cycle and late-cycle phases.

The latest survey, released Wednesday, of 206 fund managers managing a total of $680 billion in funds, the results showed that 50% of managers believe that the economy is in a late-stage cycle, down from 60% taking this view a month ago, while 48% said that the economy is mid-cycle, compared to 37% in January.

A mid-cycle phase economy "raises the possibility that there may be a further phase of economic expansion still to come," said the survey.

A net 26% of fund managers now think that the economy will weaken over the next year, down from a reading of 35% at the same point a month ago.

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2007 9:57:30 AM

Decent little Valentine for bulls.

Jane Fox : 2/14/2007 9:57:03 AM

NQ breaks its overnight high but ER breaks its overnight low. Both ES and ER are within their overnight ranges.

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2007 9:56:53 AM

New Century Financial (NEW) $19.35 +4.08% ... I sold partial (that didn't have covered call on it) in personal account at $19.29.

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2007 9:54:56 AM

Garmin (GRMN) $58.81 +11.57% ... headed north after earnings.

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2007 9:51:03 AM

New Century Financial (NEW) $19.16 +3.06% ... has retraced just more than 19.1% of its 02/07/07 close ($30.16) to recent low of $16.15.

I'm expecting some resistance near-term at $19.37.

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2007 9:47:48 AM

Walgreen (WAG) $44.90 -0.15% ... nope, that lawsuit not much impact. It sounded like an employee was just having a bad day behind the photo counter and was very rude to a customer.

Jane Fox : 2/14/2007 9:47:31 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Opnext Inc. and Quadra Realty mark the richest of four initial public offerings on deck Thursday in a busy day for new issues.

Opnext Inc. (OPXT), a former unit of Hitachi, plans to offer 16.9 million shares at $13-$15 a share in a bid to raise $240 million with underwriters Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan, CIBC World Markets, Cowen and Company and Jefferies & Co.

Quadra Realty Trust Inc. (QRR) , a New York-based real estate investment trust, plans to raise $266.7 million by offering 16.67 million shares at $15-$17 a share with underwriters Credit Suisse and Wachovia Securities.

The REIT is managed by the U.S. subsidiary of Hypo Real Estate Bank International AG, or Hypo International, which is a member of the Hypo Real Estate Group.

Salary.com (SLRY)plans to raise $45 million by offering 4.2 million shares at $8-$10 a share with underwriters Thomas Weisel Partners and William Blair.

The Waltham, Mass. company runs an online compensation management service Triangle Capital Corp. (TCAP) plans to raise $53 million by offering 3.5 million shares at $15 a share with underwriters Morgan Keegan & Company and BB&T Capital Markets.

The Raleigh, N.C. specialty finance firm sells customized financing solutions to lower middle market companies throughout the U.S. with an emphasis on the Southeast.

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2007 9:43:18 AM

iShares Lehman (AMEX:TLT) $87.50 +0.41% ... I "take back" my thoughts from last week that Treasuries should be calm!

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2007 9:41:49 AM

30-year Treasury Yield ($TYX.X) down 2.6 bp at 4.875%

Jeff Bailey : 2/14/2007 9:41:00 AM

S&P Banking Index (BIX.X) 408.95 +0.13% ... creep above downward trend on bar chart. They "love" Dr. Bernanke.

Keene Little : 2/14/2007 9:37:23 AM

I'd be a little careful about an early rise this morning--it could be an opportunity by many to take profits and wait out Bernanke's talk.

Jane Fox : 2/14/2007 9:37:20 AM

VIX opens below its PDL and the TRIN is at 0.82 so all is well on the bullish side. If you must trade stay on the long side.

Jane Fox : 2/14/2007 9:36:12 AM

AD line is a bullish +483 and AD volume above 0. The bulls have the ball but do not have field position.

Jane Fox : 2/14/2007 9:27:30 AM

I see nothing in this daily chart of the S&P that is telling me we have a major correction coming although like I said yesterday, the healthiest thing that could happen is at least a 5% correction which would bring this market back to about the May highs or the green dotted line, the 200 EMA. Link

Keene Little : 2/14/2007 9:20:44 AM

We've got a slight bullish bias from the overnight session (as Jane mentioned, no surprise there) but basically flat. After yesterday's ramp it looks like we're ready for a pullback but if we continue to see shallow corrections then the most likely path is higher.

Jane Fox : 2/14/2007 9:11:16 AM

US $ fell most of its overnight session which helped Gold and put a little wind under it's wings. Gold is tough one to play because you need very wide stops so a lot of risk. I can nail it sometimes but more often than not I get stopped before a trade will head in my direction. Even when all my ducks are in a row I can get stopped because I just don't have the stomach for the risk needed. Link

Jane Fox : 2/14/2007 9:01:20 AM

When the markets close at daily highs you sort of expect that the overnight session will break PDHs and that is exactly what happened overnight. You can see the push to higher highs at 8:30 when the retail report came out although I didn't see any thing in the report that would make me party Link

Jane Fox : 2/14/2007 9:00:29 AM

I will not be in a trade at 10:00.

Jane Fox : 2/14/2007 9:00:10 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Federal Reserve chief Ben Bernanke will tell Wall Street Wednesday that he's comfortable holding interest rates steady for a prolonged period, but will include a gentle reminder not to get too comfortable and forget that interest rates might have to rise at some point, economists said.

"We expect no substantial changes to the underlying theme, which is that the U.S. economy is transitioning from a period of above-trend growth to a more sustainable growth rate and core inflation continues to moderate although upside risks to the inflation outlook persist," said economists at Stone & McCarthy.

This has been the message in the FOMC's last policy statement released on Jan. 31 and the few Fed speeches since that meeting, analysts said.

Jane Fox : 2/14/2007 8:54:20 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - Merck & Co. (MRK) on Wednesday said it settled a tax dispute with the Internal Revenue Service. The agreement will cost the company about $2.3 billion, and covers federal tax, net interest after federal tax deductions and penalties. The deal brings to a close the IRS's examination of Merck for the period 1993 through 2001. Merck said the impact for years subsequent to 2001 of the previously disclosed tax disputes is included in the settlement although those years remain open in all other respects. Merck said it has previously reserved for these items and this settlement is not expected to have any material impact on annual earnings for 2007.

Jane Fox : 2/14/2007 8:52:20 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - U.S. retail sales fizzled at the beginning of the year, with big declines in auto and gasoline sales offsetting healthy sales at the mall.

Seasonally adjusted retail sales were unchanged in January, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday. Sales excluding autos rose 0.3%. Sales were up 2.3% compared with January of 2006. The figures are not adjusted for price changes.

The results were far below expectations. The median forecast of economists surveyed by MarketWatch predicted headline sales would rise 0.6% and ex-auto sales would rise 0.5%.

Sales in the previous two months were revised higher by a total of 0.1 percentage points. In December, total sales increased 1.2%, and 1.3% excluding autos.

The big gain in December gives first-quarter consumer spending a decent head-start, despite the flat reading in January. Economists are looking for consumer spending to slow somewhat in the first quarter from the 4.4% annualized increase in the fourth quarter.

Excluding both autos and gas, retail sales rose 0.5% in January, half the 1% gain in December.

Jane Fox : 2/14/2007 8:51:12 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - Gold futures rose early Wednesday, extending their prior-session gains, as the falling dollar continued to boost demand for the precious metal.

Gold for April delivery was last up $5.20 at $673.30 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. On Tuesday, gold closed up $1.20 at $668.50 an ounce.

With the greenback adding support to "gold's already favorable fundamentals, a test of the $676 July high seems inevitable," said James Moore, an analyst at TheBullionDesk.com. The dollar fell across the board Wednesday, hitting a six-week low against the euro, ahead of Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's congressional testimony beginning at 10 a.m. Eastern time.

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