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Marc Eckelberry : 2/21/2007 1:16:05 AM

BOJ raised rates, futures are down (carry trade).

Jeff Bailey : 2/21/2007 12:33:30 AM

Notice: ... The EIA's Weekly Petroleum Status Report will be released on Thursday at 10:30 AM EST due to the closure of the Federal government on Monday.

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2007 11:59:43 PM

April Crude Oil (cl07j) settled down $1.01, or -1.68% (from Friday's close) at $58.85.

Keene Little : 2/20/2007 11:00:46 PM

Wednesday's pivot tables: Link and Link

Marc Eckelberry : 2/20/2007 10:29:16 PM

Alert: YM short 12807, raise stop to 12811. Just a little more room, right above that closing 30 mn candle.

OI Technical Staff : 2/20/2007 10:00:03 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2007 8:42:32 PM

Merck Suspends Lobbying for Vaccine (update to my 02/02/07 03:49:15 PM EST MM Post) ... AP Story Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2007 7:00:07 PM

Service Corp. Rises on 2007 Outlook ... AP Story Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2007 6:41:22 PM

Ohhhhh myyyy! Service Corp. Intl. (SCI) $11.80 +8.25% Link ... World's LARGEST provider of deathcare facilities.

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2007 6:22:27 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List at this Link

Looking to CLOSE OUT/Buy back the XBA-OF for $0.05. Traders can mark the order "all-or-none" (AON) to avoid multiple commissions.

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2007 5:55:14 PM

BIG test for a bear's conviction near-term.

NYSE Summation ($NYSI) has now risen to +900.00 on 20-point box chart Link

NASDAQ Summation ($NASI) has now risen to +200.00 on 20-point box chart Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2007 5:25:11 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2007 5:21:16 PM

March Nat. Gas (ng07h) settled up $0.082, or +1.09% at $7.585 (from Friday's settlement)

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2007 5:20:18 PM

March Crude Oil (cl07h) settled down $1.32, or -2.22% at $58.07 (from Friday's settlement)

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2007 5:13:56 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

QQQQ went out at $45.05 +0.76%. Trades $45.08 extended.

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2007 4:47:47 PM

Hana Biosciences (HNAB) $6.24 +0.97% ... released for trade ... $4.76 extended.

Extended low/high so far ast been $4.75/$5.34

Marc Eckelberry : 2/20/2007 4:47:45 PM

I would say take +15 now and let the trade go, but the DOW has had 5 consecutive higher closes. Odds favor a negative close tomorrow.

Marc Eckelberry : 2/20/2007 4:38:46 PM

Conservative traders that like to sleep at night, close it for +15.

Marc Eckelberry : 2/20/2007 4:34:51 PM

Alert: YM short 12807, stop 12807.
If stopped out, re-enter at 12829, stop 12839.

Trade recap: +30.

Marc Eckelberry : 2/20/2007 4:32:39 PM

I have a possible projection to YM 12831 on a breakout, so we keep the stop at even.

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2007 4:26:36 PM

Hana Biosciences (HNAB) $6.24 +0.97% Link ... Halted on news Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2007 4:21:52 PM

Merck (MRK) $44.50 +0.49% ... $43.88 extended.

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2007 4:21:25 PM

Merck (MRK) $44.50 +0.49% ... The Wall Street Journal reporting that MRK has suspended its lobbying campaign for Gardisil.

Marc Eckelberry : 2/20/2007 4:18:21 PM

YM short 12807, lower stop to even.

Jane Fox : 2/20/2007 4:18:17 PM

Economic Reports for tomorrow.

8:30a.m. Jan Consumer Price Index. Expected: +0.1%. Previous: +0.4%.

8:30a.m. Jan Consumer Price Index, Ex-Food & Energy. Expected: +0.2%. Previous: +0.1%.

10:00a.m. Jan Conference Board Leading Indicators. Expected: +0.2%. Previous: +0.3%.

2:00p.m. Jan FOMC minutes.

Marc Eckelberry : 2/20/2007 4:17:17 PM

Let's see if 12793 holds.

Marc Eckelberry : 2/20/2007 4:17:02 PM

HPQ is getting a bid. I might exit.

Jane Fox : 2/20/2007 4:16:43 PM

Hewlett-Packard's profit rises 26% to $1.55 billion. Revenue reaches $25.08 billion amid gains across business segments.

Marc Eckelberry : 2/20/2007 4:13:36 PM

I know we only took +31 on the Friday 12801 short that had a target at 12736 (we were supposed to take almost +70, I blew that one), but we are back in, a little higher with a cash cushion. At least it looks that way, but the way they spin everything these days... They held 12793 as I type. Darn.

Marc Eckelberry : 2/20/2007 4:11:17 PM

IBM takes a hit. Folks, I think we nailed a good one. Fingers crossed. That NYSE number is giving me chills.

Keene Little : 2/20/2007 4:09:33 PM

Maybe the DOW will make a quick run up tomorrow moring and ring the bell at its Fib 12805 target, and accomplish a new all-time high above 12800 in the process. That should get a few more sheeple who want to take the inventory that I'm sure smart money is distributing.

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2007 4:09:12 PM

Lexmark (LXK) $63.00 +0.97% ...

Marc Eckelberry : 2/20/2007 4:08:46 PM

Another techs guides light. How many will it take.

Marc Eckelberry : 2/20/2007 4:08:19 PM

Must be a light guidance.

Marc Eckelberry : 2/20/2007 4:08:06 PM

H-P sees Q2 earns 57c-58c

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2007 4:07:59 PM

Hewlett Packard (HPQ) $43.13 +0.84% ... Earnings Press Release Link

HPQ $42.60 extended.

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2007 4:06:48 PM

Sell Program Premium ... SPY $146.04 +0.21%

Marc Eckelberry : 2/20/2007 4:04:57 PM

YM is below 12803, so we hold over.

Marc Eckelberry : 2/20/2007 4:04:35 PM

That was brief.

Marc Eckelberry : 2/20/2007 4:02:44 PM

HPQ just took a dive.

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2007 3:59:14 PM

Hewlett Packard (HPQ) $43.20 +1.00% ... Earnings after the bell.

Consensus currently for EPS of $0.62 on Revenue of $24.28B.

Marc Eckelberry : 2/20/2007 3:55:57 PM

Watch HPQ, at least YM stays open during release.

Jane Fox : 2/20/2007 3:54:46 PM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- U.S. stocks rose slightly on Tuesday, sending the Dow Jones Industrial Average to a record high, as reassuring comments from Federal Reserve Governor Susan Bies, along with upbeat results from Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and merger news, helped offset disappointing earnings from Home Depot Inc.

Bies' comments "led the market to believe that the Fed is not in tightening mode right now," while she also sounded reassuring "about the housing market and credit markets," said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at Jefferies & Co.

"We've also got more good news than bad news overall," he said.

But with U.S. markets closed Monday for the Presidents' Day holiday, investor participation remained subdued Tuesday, "and it takes very little to move the market in a holiday-shortened week," Hogan said

Marc Eckelberry : 2/20/2007 3:52:27 PM

Someone loves us. The high was 12816, our stop was 12817. At least for now. Let's get this baby below 12803 at the close and we can hold over.

Keene Little : 2/20/2007 3:36:56 PM

They seem determined to get the DOW to 12800 today. That also gets it closer to its Fib target (potential resistance) at 12805, which is where it would have two equal legs up from January 26th. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 2/20/2007 3:35:52 PM

NQ is backing off and ES is now below R2. Anything can happen, but we want to see the VIX climb now.

Marc Eckelberry : 2/20/2007 3:33:37 PM

Short 12807, raise stop back to 12817 or get out now.

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2007 3:32:29 PM

US 6-MONTH BILLS: 4.950%; 58.82% At High

DJ- The U.S. Treasury awarded $16.00 billion in six-month bills at Tuesday's auction at a high rate of 4.950%.

The Treasury received bids totaling $41.30 billion and accepted $16.00 billion, including $2.04 billion of noncompetitive tenders. The dollar price was 97.497500 and the investment rate, or bond-equivalent return, was 5.148%.

The Treasury also sold $239.20 million of six-month bills to foreign and international monetary authority accounts on a noncompetitive bidding basis.

The bid-to-cover ratio, an indication of demand, was 2.58, Treasury said.

Tenders submitted at the high yield were allotted 58.82%.

The median rate was 4.940%; that is, 50% of the amount of accepted competitive bids were tendered at or below that rate.

Of the competitive bids accepted, 5% were tendered at or below the rate of 4.920%.

The Federal Reserve purchased $14.75 billion in bills for its own account in Tuesday's three- and six-month bill auctions. When the auction was announced, the Fed held $18.12 billion of maturing bills.

The bills awarded to the Federal Reserve are in addition to the public offering amount.

Accepted indirect bids for the six-month bill were 29.1% of the total, down from 31.1% in last week's six-month bill auction.

The high rate was down from 4.965% at the previous six-month bill auction.

The high rate was the lowest since the rate of 4.920% at the six-month bill auction on Jan. 8, 2007.

The issue is dated Feb. 22 and matures on Aug. 23, 2007.

The CUSIP number on the six-month bill is 912795ZW4.

Marc Eckelberry : 2/20/2007 3:22:56 PM

Short 12807, lower stop to 12815.

Marc Eckelberry : 2/20/2007 3:19:59 PM

Stepping away.

Marc Eckelberry : 2/20/2007 3:19:13 PM

NQ came within 3 of weekly R1.

Marc Eckelberry : 2/20/2007 3:18:36 PM

Unless they want to close the DOW above 12800, in that case, you might want to raise the stop 10 points. Up to you.

Marc Eckelberry : 2/20/2007 3:16:37 PM

Noting that IBM is weakening a bit.

Marc Eckelberry : 2/20/2007 3:16:14 PM

Cowboys only.

Marc Eckelberry : 2/20/2007 3:15:56 PM

It's worth a try. We bagged +31 earlier. We could see a multi-year profit taking sequence with the NYSE high if it closes below 9455.

Marc Eckelberry : 2/20/2007 3:15:02 PM

Alert: Short YM 12807, stop 12817.

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2007 3:13:27 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2007 3:09:16 PM

Sudden "burst" of NH in SPX ... 75:1

Marc Eckelberry : 2/20/2007 3:06:39 PM

NYSE hit a multi-year projection resistance level and backed off. (945). It's risky, but a short here with a very tight stop is actually a viable play.

Jane Fox : 2/20/2007 3:02:26 PM

Quite the turn around in these two internals. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2007 3:02:25 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 2/20/2007 3:00:06 PM

Certainly not a day to fade a +1000 TICKS reading.

Jane Fox : 2/20/2007 2:59:34 PM

Here is a chart of the TICKS, very bullish. Link

Keene Little : 2/20/2007 2:59:04 PM

Watch the RUT for a quick move up here followed by a drop back below 823 which would be a sell signal. It's possible it's giving us a quick throw-over above an ascending wedge for price action since the January low. I relabeled the wave count slightly to show 3-wave moves inside the wedge and the current move fits well as the 5th wave inside the wedge. Equality between the two legs up in the 5th wave is at 825.96. It would need to roll back over soon otherwise the bearish divergence would be negated. It's a good short setup but obviously only if it doesn't rally much above 826. Link

Jane Fox : 2/20/2007 2:58:40 PM

There goes the VIX to new daily lows and the TICKS are going crazy.

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2007 2:53:10 PM

Russell 2000 Index (RUT.X) 825.61 +0.91% ... gets the trade at MONTHLY R2!

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2007 2:40:37 PM

Dow Chemical (DOW) $43.29 -0.34% Link ...

Jane Fox : 2/20/2007 2:40:23 PM

TICKs +800

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2007 2:39:51 PM

Goodyear Tire/Rubber (GT) $25.22 +0.15% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2007 2:39:03 PM


DJ- Supreme Court lets stand separate rulings against tax shelters involving a former Goodrich unit and Dow Chemical. At issue is the IRS's rejection of tax-shelter transactions that lack an economic purpose.

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2007 2:37:06 PM


DJ- Jury sides with Ohioan Jennie Nelson, who claims a hormone replacement drug caused her breast cancer. Her attorneys say Wyeth knew for decades the drug could cause breast cancer but didn't warn patients. Company plans to appeal.

WYE $50.36 -0.69% Link ...

Jane Fox : 2/20/2007 2:36:25 PM

Consolidation at daily highs is one of the most reliable price patterns and tells you the odds favor the bulls and that we have higher highs in store for us. This is not a guarantee folks but is like playing back jack and playing the odds. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2007 2:35:10 PM


DJ- Outgoing Fed governor also contends that as the housing market slowed in the past year, lending practices deteriorated, and that lenders need to be more careful that clients with lower credit ratings are fully aware of mortgage risks.

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2007 2:34:18 PM

Iran's Foreign Minister: Solving Nuclear Dispute Requires Dialogue

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2007 2:18:17 PM

Answer to Keene's 01:59:07 probably depends how much short covering comes in on the NDX/QQQQ Link at current challenge of "right shoulder" of head/shoulder top that threatens to fail.

Keene Little : 2/20/2007 2:16:36 PM

I've been looking at a comparison between OEX and SPX and have noticed a couple of interesting things. First, the weekly chart shows that OEX had outperformed the SPX for all of 2006 but has noticeably dropped off in 2007. This is confirmation that the generals (OEX) are letting the troops go out front and get shot. That's not a good sign when the generals start retreating before their troops. Link

When I look at this as a daily chart I noticed that it has completed, or is completing, a 5-wave move down from January. Even the 5th wave has achieved the level where the 5th and 1st waves are equal. This tells me we should see a reversal in this chart with a bounce soon. Link

That would suggest the OEX is about to outperform the SPX and that can happen two ways. One, OEX could finally break its 670 level and accelerate to the upside, or two, SPX could outperform the OEX to the downside. I'm thinking the latter will happen but we'll let price show the way.

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2007 2:13:18 PM

Caterpillar (CAT) $67.80 +0.19% ... also MACHinery/Tools

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2007 2:12:44 PM

Dorsey/Wright has PH belonging to MACHinery/Tools, which is still "bull confirmed" status.

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2007 2:11:38 PM

Looks like bullish follow-through to PH earnings note.

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2007 2:04:33 PM

Parker Hannifin (PH) $86.01 +0.52% Link ... with a note to see 01/17/07 MM.

Keene Little : 2/20/2007 1:59:07 PM

I certainly wonder how many times OEX is going to bang its head against the 670 area before it either finally punches through or the distribution by smart money is complete and down she goes. Other than brief forays above 670 recently this has clearly marked a level where it looks like stocks are being sold.

Marc Eckelberry : 2/20/2007 1:52:18 PM

Bear flags off highs.

Keene Little : 2/20/2007 1:42:52 PM

So far the pullback is yet again just another 3-wave pullback so it needs to turn right back down if the bears want to get something to eat. Otherwise a push back above the highs just past 1:00 will say we've probably got new daily highs on the way and the bears will have to stay in their caves.

Jane Fox : 2/20/2007 1:32:23 PM

The bullishness is over for now. AT this point I have have no idea if it will return because the AD line is back to +386, AD volume is flat lined and the VIx is rising. Time to give your trading mouse a rest.

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2007 1:23:33 PM

PetroChina (PTR) $120.84 -1.62% ... just probed its 01/18/07 relative low close ($120.75).

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2007 1:21:50 PM

Sector Status Changes ... Friday's action had Dorsey/Wright's PROTection/Safety Equip. achieving "bull confirmed" status at 52% bullish.

RESTaurants also achieves "bull confirmed" at 80%.

Keene Little : 2/20/2007 1:19:45 PM

SPX is pushing up against the top of its ascending wedge again and with the bearish divergences at today's high I think the upside is the riskier side. But I do see the possibility for SPX to press up to 1461.51 if it's to achieve equality between the 1st and 5th waves in the move up from February 12th. It would then be set up to roll back over as shown on this 60-min chart: Link

But if it presses higher than that then the next Fib target would be 1467.47 and the top of a parallel up-channel for the A-B-C move up from January 26th where it would achieve equality between A and C. I don't like the long side but obviously the bears need to get back in the game here if they're to have a chance.

Marc Eckelberry : 2/20/2007 1:16:23 PM

I wold just wait and see if YM can hold on to 12793.

Marc Eckelberry : 2/20/2007 1:17:26 PM

Back for a sec. Lunch chop, but I noticed that RUT made a high right under 61.8% projection January and NYSE did not come far from 100% projection 2000/2002 (9455), which would also be a double off 2002 lows. If we fail at these levels, then I agree with Keene, it's a long way down.

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2007 1:14:48 PM

Most Active ... SIRI $3.97 +7.29%, QQQQ $45.00 +0.64%, XMSR $15.75 +12.66%, AMEX:IWM $81.73 +0.68%, SUNW $6.37 +1.27%, AMEX:SPY $145.89 +0.10%, INTC $21.13 -0.47%, MSFT $28.71 -0.10%, JBLU $12.91 -4.79%, CSCO $27.58 +0.21%

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2007 1:10:24 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2007 1:02:13 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Keene Little : 2/20/2007 12:59:52 PM

Same thing with GOOG--no help today. It is shy of what I would watch for upside resistance (475-484) but it looks like it could roll back over at any time. The longer term pattern has just as many possibilities as CME, and that makes it more difficult to get a handle on the broader market's moves. In between the key levels of 440 and 506 it's just not clear enough as to where this could be headed next. Link

Jane Fox : 2/20/2007 12:58:30 PM

If you are long I would be out now and wait for another entry or just stay flat.

Keene Little : 2/20/2007 12:54:25 PM

CME is not giving us many clues today as to what the broader market will do. I see an equal possibility for it to head higher this afternoon as I see for it to head lower. Even the longer term pattern leaves open the possibility for multiple ideas. 589 to the north and 535 to the south remain the key levels. In the middle could be a lot of chop. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2007 12:50:17 PM


DJ- The poor performance of subprime mortgage loans, especially those made in 2006, won't have a major fallout in the rest of the capital market, analysts at Goldman Sachs say.

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2007 12:49:18 PM


DJ- Metals-trading hedge fund that lost more than 20% in January says requests from investors to redeem at the end of this quarter represented less than 4% of its assets, suggesting support from its biggest investors despite large losses.

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2007 12:47:49 PM


DJ- A Bush administration estimate that tougher requirements on merchant credit tax reporting would raise $11 billion is conservative. The change could have a broader impact on businesses, says IRS commissioner.

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2007 12:46:31 PM


DJ- Treasury bars three Iranian companies from the U.S. financial system for their ties to Tehran's nuclear program. Kalaye Electric, Kavoshyar and Pioneer Energy are owned or controlled by the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran.

Keene Little : 2/20/2007 12:46:16 PM

The wave pattern for the NDX continues to bother me. I can't get past feeling that the whole mess since the sharp drop in January is nothing but a correction waiting for the next shoe to drop. Trying to nail down where the top could form has been an exercise in frustration, just like trying to figure out where the top for the rest of the market might occur.

There's another possibility for NDX as shown on this 60-min chart: Link With the move up from February 12th needing to be a 5-wave move (for the c-wave), the 5th wave of that move equals 162% of the 1st wave (typical in a blow off move) at 1833.56. Today's high at 1834.04 met that objective and the bearish divergence supports the wave count calling this high the 5th wave. So once again I'll caution those who are long. It's possible this was a big head fake (bull trap) today.

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2007 12:44:46 PM


DJ- New Global Trading Platform will allow E*Trade's individual-investor customers in the U.S. to buy, hold and sell foreign shares in their local currency in six key markets: Canada, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Japan and the U.K.

ETFC $24.28 +0.33% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2007 12:43:19 PM


DJ- Financial-services giant is considering listing its shares on the Tokyo Stock Exchange, a move that would make it easier to buy Japanese companies and accelerate its planned expansion there.

C $54.31 +0.38% Link ... #12 weighting in INDU/DIA/YM

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2007 12:36:21 PM

Exxon/Mobil, Qatar Scraps GTL Project, OK's Domestic Gas Project

DJ- Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) and Qatar Petroleum Tuesday announced they would scrap a gas-to-liquids project in favor of developing another project to provide natural gas to the domestic Qatari market.

The domestic project, Barzan, will supply domestic gas to the booming Qatari economy, according to a news release on ExxonMobil's web site. Qatar has seen unprecedented industrial growth amid a natural gas boom.

The move comes amid soaring costs for major capital projects like GTL. ExxonMobil and Qatar signed a heads-of-agreement for the GTL project in July 2004. The agreement was due to expire later this year, said ExxonMobil spokeswoman Jeanne Miller. GTL converts natural gas to liquid petroleum products.

"This is a decision we made that's very consistent with our investment approach," Miller said. "It is a decision that is consistent with maximizing resources for our host government and our shareholders."

"The Barzan project is a very important staragegic project for Qatar," Qatar Energy Minister H.E. Abdullah bin Hamad Al-Attiyah said in the news release.

Keene Little : 2/20/2007 12:24:47 PM

Actually I just noticed that I should have relabeled that A-B-C move up for the DOW since where I had the end of wave-A is not the correct place (wave-B down didn't count out well). So moving it back to the high on February 1st, where the parallel line is attached, and then projecting where wave-C could top out (for two equal legs up) shows 12788 as potential resistance, which is where the DOW made a high so far. So I'd say between here and 12800 be careful if you're long. Link

Keene Little : 2/20/2007 12:20:34 PM

If this leg up is completing the c-wave of an A-B-C move up from January 26th then the parallel up-channel for that move could mark potential resistance. Currently for the DOW that's near the century mark at 12800. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 2/20/2007 12:18:00 PM

This could have something to do with BOJ. The Yen is dropping and if they don;t raise rates, the carry trade lives on and they will plow money into equities. In other words, we are at the mercy of the Japanese today.

Marc Eckelberry : 2/20/2007 12:12:31 PM

This kind of trade has to be baby sitted and I won;t be around. But buy the dips today.

Marc Eckelberry : 2/20/2007 12:11:40 PM

YM long exit +0

Marc Eckelberry : 2/20/2007 12:11:29 PM

Actually, I am closing it.

Marc Eckelberry : 2/20/2007 12:10:31 PM

This is a momentum trade so please book profits or trade with care. Stops can be raised just under 12799 at some point. I have to leave again.

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2007 12:09:20 PM

Swing trade NAKED put close alert ... place an order to buy back the two (2) eBay EBAY Mar $30 Puts (XBA-OF) at the deteriorating bid of $0.05.

EBAY $33.94 +0.95% Link ...

This will free up margin requirements.

Jane Fox : 2/20/2007 12:09:18 PM

THe markets look like they are getting tired and that last TICK +1000 was hardly noticed.

Marc Eckelberry : 2/20/2007 12:08:16 PM

Re-investing the +31 earlier.

Marc Eckelberry : 2/20/2007 12:08:00 PM

Alert: Long YM 12804, stop 12784.

Jane Fox : 2/20/2007 12:08:06 PM

The VIX continues to make new daily lows supporting the bullishness. Link

Jane Fox : 2/20/2007 12:05:31 PM

Another TICK +1000

Marc Eckelberry : 2/20/2007 12:05:05 PM

The best short out there could be oil.

Marc Eckelberry : 2/20/2007 12:03:56 PM

YOU and me, Jane. I actually bouht NQ at 1815, but I bailed early. That VIX kept dropping and I should have listened.

Marc Eckelberry : 2/20/2007 12:02:58 PM

There is a scalp short under 12799, but we close a 5 mn candle above, forget it.

Jane Fox : 2/20/2007 12:02:33 PM

These are telling you long is the side to be on. I shorted this morning drop but did not participate in the bullishness because the AD line and volume. The odds were not in my favor so I missed this bizarre runup. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 2/20/2007 12:01:52 PM

As long as YM holds 12793 and even 12785, I would remain long or on the sidelines. NQ was fiercely bought at weekly pivot.

Marc Eckelberry : 2/20/2007 12:00:44 PM

Even HD reversed.

Marc Eckelberry : 2/20/2007 12:00:33 PM

Careful shorting turnarounds like this. Unless you are a very good scalper, this is a huge day technically for bulls, at least for now. I think NQ is headed for 1845.75.

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2007 11:55:48 AM


DJ- Making a long-term wager on the now-faltering construction markets in the Sunbelt, Vulcan Materials agrees to acquire Florida Rock Industries for $4.6 billion in cash and stock. Florida Rock soars 42% and Vulcan edges higher.

VMC $111.03 -0.69% Link ...

FRK $66.56 +41.73% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2007 11:52:56 AM


DJ- U.K. drug maker agrees to pay $64 a share for New River Pharmaceuticals, a 9.7% premium to Friday's closing price. The $2.6 billion deal will give Shire control of Vyvanse, a drug for attention-deficit disorder.

SHPGY $66.63 +5.29% Link ...

NRPH $63.43 +8.70% Link ...

Keene Little : 2/20/2007 11:45:14 AM

The next resistance level for ES would be a retest of its overnight high on Monday at 1462.75. Someone else may want the ability to short it there too, or at least bail from some longs.

Keene Little : 2/20/2007 11:40:31 AM

Do I dare point out the Huge bearish divergence on the 30 and 60-min charts if price can not hold up here?

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2007 11:39:20 AM

YM alert! 12,793 after session high of 12,809

Keene Little : 2/20/2007 11:38:05 AM

Sometimes the post-opex Monday can be a little wild as traders reposition after opex is finished. Looks like a rather significant v-bottom this morning. Now with NYSE back above Friday afternoon's high, that bearish setup is also negated. Time for the bears to stand aside and now, because of the choppy price pattern, we'll need to wait to see what sets up next.

Jane Fox : 2/20/2007 11:31:37 AM

My goodness gracious what is going on today? TICKS are going crazy.

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2007 11:30:55 AM

NASDAQ Composite (COMPX) 2,503.59 +0.29% ... challenges its 01/12/07 52-week high close!

Keene Little : 2/20/2007 11:30:23 AM

NDX is setting up a potential top but only if it tops out very soon. The pullback from last week's high had the possibility for being a 4th wave correction in the move up from January 12th. That would make the current move up as the 5th wave and it would complete the rally leg. So I'd be careful chasing this higher. But a rally above 1830 would say the bears will just have to go back into their caves and wait a little longer. Link

Jane Fox : 2/20/2007 11:30:08 AM

ES tags its PDH but not for long. Just no stopping the bulls.

Keene Little : 2/20/2007 11:24:02 AM

With SPX now having rallied back above Friday afternoon's high that leaves the pullback from Thursday as just a correction to the rally. Whether that leads to new highs directly from here or after a deeper pullback can't be known now. But it does significantly raise the probability that the rally to new highs is not finished yet.

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2007 11:21:36 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2007 11:18:20 AM

Russell 2000 ($RUT.X) 819.40 +0.15% Link ... All-time high!

Jane Fox : 2/20/2007 11:16:28 AM

Wow what a turn around!

Jane Fox : 2/20/2007 11:15:53 AM

YM is testing its PDL. Quite a divergence here.

Keene Little : 2/20/2007 11:15:27 AM

Which NDX just did.

Jane Fox : 2/20/2007 11:15:26 AM

TICKS +1000 and ER tests its PDH.

Keene Little : 2/20/2007 11:14:44 AM

Techs look bound and determined to close this morning's gap down.

Keene Little : 2/20/2007 11:11:49 AM

That last little pop higher in SPX nearly tagged the level for two equal legs up in its bounce--at 1453.86, 0.04 shy of the 1453.90 target, I'd say it's close enough. Now the sellers need to step back in otherwise the dipsters could win this round (again). The top of its down-channel that I showed earlier (downtrend line from last Thursday's high) is currently near 1455.20 and that would be the last line of defense for the bears.

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2007 11:11:14 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

NASDAQ Volume outpacing big board. SIRI and XMSR #1 and #2 most actives.

Jane Fox : 2/20/2007 11:04:07 AM

Some may think you should have gotten long at the bottom but it was one of those trades where the internals were telling you the odds were not in your favor. Only the VIX was bullish and the best odds are when the VIX and AD Line and volume agree.

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2007 11:03:48 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link ... "Fat finger" trade in the SPY. I'm showing session low as $144.87.

Jane Fox : 2/20/2007 11:02:11 AM

ER to new daily highs and NQ is testing its daily highs.

Jane Fox : 2/20/2007 11:00:12 AM

Dateline WSJ - WASHINGTON -- Altria Group Inc.'s Philip Morris USA unit Tuesday won a U.S. Supreme Court challenge to a $79.5 million punitive-damages award made by an Oregon jury.

The high court voted 5-4 to overturn the jury verdict, ruling it violated earlier high court decisions on limits to punitive damages. The decision could further curb the size of product liability awards against companies beyond new limits the high court outlined in its 2003 State Farm ruling.

In an opinion by Justice Stephen Breyer, the high court said that punitive damages awards based in part on a desire to punish a company for actions that harm people not involved in a particular lawsuit amounts "to a taking of property from the defendant without due process."

The Philip Morris lawsuit is the latest rallying point for U.S. corporations that are anxious to put a tighter lid on punitive damages awards. The Supreme Court, in a 2003 ruling involving State Farm, said punitive damages should generally be no more than nine times the size of actual damages. Business groups continue to complain about large jury awards against companies, arguing the State Farm decision didn't resolve all the legal questions surrounding punitive damages awards.

Keene Little : 2/20/2007 10:54:31 AM

Getting a sharp bounce, especially in the techs so now we watch to see if Friday afternoon's high gets taken out. In the meantime, continuing with SPX, a bounce with two equal legs up is at 1453.90. So far the bounce stopped at a 62% retracement of the drop from Friday afternoon (at 1453.29). Any rally back above 1454.40 (78.6%) would suggest Friday afternoon's high is in jeopardy. Until that happens though the bears are at least temporarily in control.

Jane Fox : 2/20/2007 10:46:58 AM

With the AD line at -826 and AD volume well under 0 I would not be long but it looks like the rescue team is coming to the ... well rescue and I would not be short.

Jane Fox : 2/20/2007 10:40:34 AM

VIX testing daily lows so if you are short it is now time to bail.

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2007 10:36:37 AM

Valero Energy (VLO) $55.41 -0.96% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2007 10:35:40 AM

Valero sees Texas refinery shut through midweek... Reuters (update) Link

Jane Fox : 2/20/2007 10:33:22 AM

The VIX is telling me it is not all that safe to be short right now. LIke I said earlier the easy money may be gone.

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2007 10:28:30 AM

Altria (MO) $86.01 -0.22% Link ... #3 weighting in INDU/DIA/YM

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2007 10:27:25 AM


DJ- Auto-parts company's net income rises to $119.5 million, or 70c, a penny above analysts' expectations, from $108.9 million, or 63c, a year earlier. Sales rise 6% to $2.54 billion.

GPC $49.59 -0.36% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2007 10:25:53 AM


DJ- Cellphone-service provider reports net income of $215.9 million, or 58c a share, as earnings from continuing operations soar to 63c, topping analysts' mean estimate of 59c. Revenue increases 14% to $2.09 billion.

AT $61.70 +2.10% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2007 10:24:12 AM

Briggs & Stratton (BGG) $30.19 -0.13% Link ...

Jane Fox : 2/20/2007 10:22:54 AM

Dateline WSJ - Supreme Court throws out $79.5 million punitive-damages verdict against cigarette maker Philip Morris.

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2007 10:22:25 AM


DJ- Maintenance product maker posts net income of $18.5 million, or 44c a share, as sales rise 2.5% to $379.1 million. Analysts forecast EPS of 32c. For fiscal 2Q, Toro forecast earnings of $1.65 to $1.69 a share.

TTC $54.12 +0.22% Link ...

Keene Little : 2/20/2007 10:20:45 AM

SPX got a bounce off the bottom of the little parallel down-channel I showed earlier (10:01), basically at the level where the decline from last Thursday has two equal legs down. The test is on now to see if we've got something more bearish going on or just another dip for the dipsters to buy.

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2007 10:19:40 AM


DJ- Food maker expects fiscal 3Q charge of $50 million-$60 million, or 6c-8c a share, after last week's recall of Peter Pan peanut butter linked to a salmonella outbreak. ConAgra will adjust its fiscal-year earnings outlook to reflect the charge.

CAG $25.88 -0.23% Link ...

Jane Fox : 2/20/2007 10:18:34 AM

Rescue team has arrived TICKS +800. Me thinks the easy trading period has just ended.

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2007 10:17:59 AM


DJ- Online auctioneer is showing heavy resistance to a White House plan eBay says will force it to report customers who aren't paying tax on earnings from sales, the Financial Times reports. Treasury Department estimates it could collect $2 billion.

EBAY $33.15 -1.39% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2007 10:15:53 AM


DJ- National Activity Index comes in at -0.74 for January, illustrating below-average economic growth. Three-month average also below 0, suggesting U.S. economic growth "continued to be below its historical trend."

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2007 10:14:01 AM


DJ- Shares shed 7% after last week's debacle in handling an East Coast winter storm. Discount airline plans changes that will make it more like a legacy carrier, such as canceling flights ahead of bad weather. Airline also will introduce a customer bill of rights.

JBLU $12.68 -6.44% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2007 10:11:50 AM


DJ- Shares drop 3% as the food maker sees earnings excluding restructuring charges of $1.75 to $1.80 a share, below analysts' mean estimate of $1.92. Kraft expects to increase organic revenue 3%-4%.

KFT $33.79 -3.31% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2007 10:10:05 AM


DJ- Shares slip 1% after home-improvement retailer posts net income of $925 million, or 46c a share. Excluding charge, it earns 50c a share, matching estimates. Revenue rises 4% to $20.27 billion as same-store sales fall 6.6%.

HD $41.00 -1.06% Link ... #21 weighting in INDU/DIA/YM

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2007 10:08:06 AM


DJ- World's largest retailer has 4Q net income of $3.94 billion, or 95c a share. Excluding gain, Wal-Mart earns 93c, 3c above estimates. Sales climb 11% to $98.09 billion, falling just short of expectations. International sales climb 30% to $22.7 billion, while U.S. same-store sales increase 1.6%. Wal-Mart expects 1Q U.S. same-store sales to rise 1%-3% and earnings at or above analysts' forecasts.

WMT $49.47 +2.04% Link ... #15 weighting in INDU/DIA/YM

Keene Little : 2/20/2007 10:07:07 AM

Approximate futures premium over cash:

YM -- +18
ES -- +3.00
NQ -- +6
ER -- +1.30

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2007 10:02:31 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Note: CRB Index (CEC:CRY) 280.77 -8.45% ... quote may be incorrect (seems excessive).

Jane Fox : 2/20/2007 10:02:02 AM

AD line is now -996.

Keene Little : 2/20/2007 10:01:55 AM

With SPX dropping below Friday's low that's a good time to lower stops on any short plays to just above the highs of Friday afternoon. Any rally from here back above that level would leave a 3-wave corrective pullback and it would point towards new highs coming. Link

Two equal legs down for the drop from Thursday's high is at 1449.42 (ES 1452.50) so that level bears watching for potential support (for a potential bounce back up to a new high). Then there are the 30-min 100/130-pma's just below that and the 162% projection at 1445.46. I also show a preliminary parallel down-channel which may guide price action.

Jane Fox : 2/20/2007 9:59:28 AM

If the AD line were below -1000 I would be saying this is a get short and stay short kind of day but the bears need to be watchful today. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2007 9:56:28 AM

Sirius plans to buy XM in $4.6 billion stock deal ... Reuters Story Link

SIRI $3.93 +6.21% Link

XMSR $15.34 +9.72% Link ...

Jane Fox : 2/20/2007 9:55:11 AM

Careful bears ES is making new daily lows without the VIX confirming.

Keene Little : 2/20/2007 9:51:40 AM

Quick update on NYSE since I laid out that long update last night (see below)--the break down this morning is what the bearish pattern called for so now all it has to do is follow through. A break below 9400 would suggest at least a much deeper pullback was in the works. A rally back above 9434 would say the bulls are not done yet. Link

Jane Fox : 2/20/2007 9:50:09 AM

Here is the overnight charts for the commodities I watch and Bonds. Link

Jane Fox : 2/20/2007 9:48:53 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - Gold futures fell early Tuesday, after a rise in the U.S. dollar and mixed sentiment on the oil market weakened demand for the precious metal.

Gold for April delivery was last down $6.20 at $666.60 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. On Friday, gold closed up $1.40 at $672.80 an ounce, posting slight gains on the week.

"Conditions are set to remain volatile this week with U.S. and Chinese holidays keeping conditions on the thin side," said James Moore, an analyst at TheBullionDesk.com.

The markets in China, Hong Kong, Malaysia, Singapore and Taiwan will be closed all week for the Lunar New Year celebrations.

Movements on the currency and energy markets are providing most of the direction in gold prices. The U.S. dollar rose against the Japanese yen ahead of a Bank of Japan interest-rate decision and data on U.S. consumer prices, both of which are due on Wednesday. The dollar added 0.4% against the Japanese currency to change hands at 120.21 yen. The euro was up 0.01% at $1.315.

Marc Eckelberry : 2/20/2007 9:47:32 AM

12764 held. You can re-enter on a breakdown, but I have to step away.

Keene Little : 2/20/2007 9:47:19 AM

The RUT's short term pattern supports the idea that we could see a push up to a Fib projection near 821 but a break below 810 would say that's not likely to happen. Like the DOW and SPX I'll need to see how a pullback develops (assuming we'll get one from here) to help determine whether the bullish or bearish wave count floats up to preferred status. A break below 802 would say it's the bears' turn. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 2/20/2007 9:47:04 AM

Alert: Exit YM short +30.

Jane Fox : 2/20/2007 9:41:57 AM

NQ is the only market to break its PDL - so far. Link

Keene Little : 2/20/2007 9:41:32 AM

NDX is likewise set up for a decline but the bearish pattern could tolerate a push as high as 1830 without being negated so that's the level I've identified on this chart. But this morning's drop has already reduced the chances of that happening. Bears need a break below 1763 to put them back in control. Link

Jane Fox : 2/20/2007 9:40:18 AM

* JetBlue Airways shares down 7.7% at $12.52
* Sirius Satellite up 9.2% at $4.03
* XM Satellite Radio up 16.7% at $16.29

Jane Fox : 2/20/2007 9:39:01 AM

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) -- XM Satellite Radio (XMSR) Chairman Gary Parsons told analysts Tuesday that until a proposed merger with Sirius Satellite Radio (SIRI) is completed, existing radios from each company will continue to receive only XM or Sirius signals transmissions. Engineers from both companies continue to work on radios that can accommodate both signals, he added. Sirius Chairman Mel Karmazin said "there are all kinds of opportunities" to make programming available to both XM and Sirius radios while the merger is being considered, through negotiations with content partners. However, XM's Parsons was quick to add that "no changes" in the way the companies have tradtionally competed should be expected until a merger has closed.

Jane Fox : 2/20/2007 9:38:01 AM

VIx opens above it PDH supporting the bears but the TRIN is a neutral 0.99

Jane Fox : 2/20/2007 9:37:27 AM

AD line is -642 and AD volume under 0. The bears have the ball and are running with it.

Jeff Bailey : 2/20/2007 9:34:02 AM

Expeditors Intl. (EXPD) $46.18 +2.39% Link ... 3-box reversal on PnF chart. (see 02/14/07 MM).

Keene Little : 2/20/2007 9:30:29 AM

Not surprisingly, SPX sports the same pattern and setup as the DOW. Any push higher could tag a Fib projection at 1460.35 otherwise we should be ready for a pullback that will either set up another run higher into mid March (the next potential turn window) or a decline into March where we could see the turn window result in a big bounce before rolling over into the summer. A break below 1431 is required to put the bears firmly back in the driver's seat. Link

Jane Fox : 2/20/2007 9:26:24 AM

The lower lows and highs means the trend is down and the overnight session was bearish. Although no market broke its PDL there is a very good chance they will break intraday.

I am looking for an AD line and AD volume to open under 0. This could be a very good day to trade at least the morning may be good. Link

Keene Little : 2/20/2007 9:25:38 AM

I have had an upside Fib projection for the DOW at 12805 (for the leg up from last Monday (for two equal legs up from the end of January) so any push higher could tag that level. But so far the rally has created a small throw-over above its ascending wedge and any continuation lower today would be a sell signal. In that case it will then be a matter of watching the form of the decline to see if it's setting up another run higher or is the start of something much bigger to the downside. A break below 12536 would be a very significant break down. Link

Jane Fox : 2/20/2007 9:23:22 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- JetBlue Airways Corp. shares are "dead money" for the next few months as the low-cost carrier takes a hit to revenue from its midweek meltdown and it struggles to get its operations and image back on track, Morgan Stanley analysts said Tuesday in downgrading the stock.

The New York-based airline, popular among flyers for its discount fares, leather seats and seatback TV screens, cancelled 23% of its flights for Monday, compounding delays that began their cascade in the face of a winter ice storm that grounded about 1,100 of its scheduled flights.

JetBlue's (JBLU) chief executive, David Neeleman is set to unveil a "Customer Bill of Rights" Tuesday, expected to outline contingency plans for cancellations and delays.

Jane Fox : 2/20/2007 9:18:12 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- U.S. Treasury bonds were slightly lower, sending yields higher, early Tuesday, with a dearth of market-moving events leaving investors cautious ahead of key inflation data to be released in the following session.

Keene Little : 2/20/2007 9:16:38 AM

Equity futures have given up all their overnight gains, including the gains from the early Monday session and are currently trading at their lows. The question now is whether or not those highs will be tested during market hours. That makes an entry on the short side tricky this morning and I'm thinking it would be better to wait to see what develops before taking sides.

As I posted below, the setup is there for an immediate drop out of the gates so if we see the indices drop below the lows of the past couple of days that would be a signal that we should at least start a larger pullback.

Marc Eckelberry : 2/20/2007 8:50:09 AM

WMT is making up for the HD drop. Stop remains at even (12801)

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