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Keene Little : 2/22/2007 10:30:05 PM

Friday's pivot tables: Link and Link

OI Technical Staff : 2/22/2007 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2007 7:19:35 PM

Today's most active QQQQ option at the CBOE was the Mar $45 Put (QQQ-OS) $0.43; 117,566 with OI of 144,859 at Wednesday's close. Low/high was $0.41/$0.61.

DnTickVol 3,850 with UpTickVol 1,899.

Bulls would want to see OI increase (obligation to BUY $45). Bears want no part of that, but OI to decline and at least hint that some bearish speculators moved to the sidelines.

VXN.X 15.30 -0.52%

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2007 7:12:05 PM

On 01/16/06 the NASDAQ Summation Ratio ($NASI) 20-point box chart Link finished at a -41.95 reading. Today's final measure is +266.44

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2007 6:57:45 PM

COMPX 2,524.94 +0.24% ... closes at multi-year high. Recent multi-year high was 01/16/07. Here's that day's closing internals Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2007 6:53:50 PM

On 01/24/07 we/I closed out the QQQ Feb $43 puts at $0.30. The next day, the QQQQ darted lower, consolidated for 3-days, but has risen since.

01/24/07 closing internals at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2007 6:48:33 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

NASDAQ's 197 new highs a little "weak" in my opinion. Bulls want to see something north of 250 in next few days. Bears want no part of that.

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2007 6:40:30 PM

April Crude Oil (cl07j) settled up $0.88, or +1.46% at $60.95.

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2007 6:34:01 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2007 6:20:26 PM

US Junk Bond Funds Report $73.8 Million Inflow In Week - AMG

DJ- High-yield bond funds reported $73./8 million of net inflows in the week ended Wednesday, according to AMG Data Services of Arcata, Calif.

The week continued an overall positive trend seen throughout early 2007, with each of the past eight weeks recording net inflows.

Last week, the funds reported $64.8 million in inflows.

In the week, the number of funds reporting inflows rose to 175 from 166 last week. The number of funds reporting outflows fell to 193, from 197.

In the week ended Wednesday, the junk bond market gained 0.521%, according to the Merrill Lynch High-Yield Master II Index.

So far in 2007, the high-yield market has gained 2.686%.

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2007 6:18:08 PM

Excellent, excellent comments/observations from James Cramer regarding corporate debt prices/yield tie with the underlying stock.

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2007 5:24:10 PM

Venezuela Central Bank: 4Q '06 Current Acct. Surplus At Over $4.2 Billion

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2007 5:22:54 PM

Venezuela Central Bank: Non-Oil GDP Rose 13.1% In 4Q '06

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2007 5:20:47 PM

CBOT Holdings (BOT) $162.95 -3.23% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2007 5:19:14 PM

Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) $160.58 -2.00% Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2007 5:17:27 PM

Nymex Holdings (NMX) $140.78 +0.48% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2007 5:15:54 PM

Nymex: Real Estate Futures, Carbon Products To List In 2-3 Months

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2007 5:15:22 PM

Nymex: To List Energy, Metals Options on Globex In 3-4 Months

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2007 4:49:49 PM

Officials Offer Hedge Fund Guidelines

White House Officials Say New Rules Not Needed to Regulate Hedge Funds.

AP Story Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2007 4:30:54 PM

BIIIG volume for the SMH $35.61 +3.27% Link today. 33.42 million shares.

Keene Little : 2/22/2007 4:30:28 PM

Another Hanging Man Doji was left on the RUT's daily chart. And on the NDX daily chart we have a Spinning Top Doji at a double top. This leaves us with the potential that we'll see a top form here but only if we get a down day tomorrow. Ideally it will be a gap down so as to leave that spinning top all by its lonesome. The bullish potential says we continue chopping our way higher for another few weeks. The price pattern since November is subject to interpretation so let the trend lines be your guide. Link

Jane Fox : 2/22/2007 4:06:44 PM

No economic reports to trade around tomorrow.

Keene Little : 2/22/2007 4:05:57 PM

Two equal legs up for YM's bounce is at 12717. So we have NQ slightly above its level, ES just shy and YM almost tagged it. The setup is there for another drop tomorrow. Seems to be a frequent pattern lately--sell it off in the morning, buy it back in the afternoon, rinse and repeat.

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2007 3:57:22 PM

SPY $145.81 -0.10% ... back to those "sell program premiums" from yeterday.

Keene Little : 2/22/2007 3:56:30 PM

ES looks just a little different from SPX when looking at where its uptrend line from Feb 12 is currently located. If today's bounce gets to two equal legs up, at 1461, that would be another test of its broken uptrend line and set up a decline tomorrow. Watch it and try it early tomorrow if it sets up. The downside objective from there (for two equal legs down from this morning's high) would be 1449--a nice trade if it happens. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2007 3:56:25 PM

Pull'em in, then buy'em higher. Pull'em in, buy'em higher.

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2007 3:56:00 PM

QQQQ $45.38 +0.42% ... has retraced 61.8% of intra-day range. Incredible sign of accumulation.

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2007 3:39:05 PM

PTR ... stop goes $118.80, targeting a bounce to $128.

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2007 3:38:00 PM

For those new to the MM, I run the account as if $10,000.00 is a "full position."

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2007 3:37:26 PM

Swing trade long alert ... for 1/2 position in shares of PetroChina (PTR) $121.34 -0.07% ... at the offer of $121.36.

Keene Little : 2/22/2007 3:34:58 PM

Keep an eye on NDX 1845 (NQ 1850.75) for a top to this bounce--that's where today's bounce will have two equal legs up. If this is part of a larger pullback we'll then get another leg down tomorrow.

Keene Little : 2/22/2007 3:31:45 PM

The DOW is the weaker index at the moment and its decline can count impulsively. I can't say the same about the others. But going with the DOW's chart, it's possible we're completing the 3rd wave down (or more bullishly it could be completing an A-B-C pullback). A rally from here back above 12707 would leave it as a bullish corrective pullback. Link

We'll know more after the next bounce--a sideways/up correction will mean another leg down and I show the probability that it will drop to and find support at the uptrend line line along the lows from November (the bottom of its ascending wedge. This is the trend line that has supported every pullback since November and I'd be shocked if buyers didn't show up there again.

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2007 3:19:19 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2007 3:13:54 PM

USD/JPY 121.541 bid. (benchmark)

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2007 3:11:54 PM

Forex Currency (live) Link ... Yen taking a beating.

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2007 3:10:01 PM

Fantastic commentary/observations from Rick Santelli.

That move in gold may be due to Yen more than anything.

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2007 3:02:37 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2007 2:58:40 PM

Intersting ... CME's August Housing futures show 15 contracts traded in Boston .... last 166.60 with bid/ask 166.20/166.80. Finished 166.80 yesterday, or that was the quote.

Heard a "blurb" regarding today's Help Wanted that New England saw gains.

Keene Little : 2/22/2007 2:44:50 PM

SPX did a perfect 50% retracement of today's drop. Gotta love them Fibs. Now if we get two equal legs down from this morning's high (so another leg down to match the one to this morning's low) we get a downside target of SPX 1445. First things first--we need to see a new daily low.

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2007 2:45:01 PM

5-year Yield ($FVX.X) up 4.7 bp at 4.728%

At 01:00 PM EST, $FVX.X was 4.722%

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2007 2:43:35 PM

US 5-year Notes: 4.719%; 57.33% At High

DJ- (01:00 PM EST Auction) The U.S. Treasury awarded $13.00 billion in five-year notes at Thursday's auction at a high rate of 4.719%.

The Treasury received bids totaling $31.63 billion and accepted $13.00 billion, including $116.07 million of noncompetitive tenders, down from $140.16 million in noncompetitive tenders accepted at the previous five-year note auction on Jan. 25.

The Treasury received no bids from foreign and international monetary authority accounts on a noncompetitive bidding basis.

The bid-to-cover ratio, an indication of demand, was 2.43, Treasury said.

Tenders submitted at the high yield were allotted 57.33%.

The dollar price was 99.585650 and the coupon rate was set at 4.625%, or 4 5/8%.

The median rate was 4.699%; that is, 50% of the amount of accepted competitive bids were tendered at or below that rate.

Of the competitive bids accepted, 5% were tendered at or below the rate of 4.667%. Accepted indirect bids for the five-year note were 26.5% of the total, up from 21.8% in last month's auction.

The high rate was down from 4.855% at the previous five-year note auction.

The high rate was the lowest since 4.704% at the five-year note auction on Dec. 28, 2006.

The issue is dated Feb. 28, and matures on Feb. 29, 2012. The CUSIP number on the five-year notes is 912828GK0.

Jane Fox : 2/22/2007 2:37:32 PM

YM is the only market trading under its PDR. Link

Keene Little : 2/22/2007 2:36:23 PM

After breaking its uptrend line off this morning's low, the DOW did a quick pop back up to test the broken uptrend line and then dropped sharply. These are the kinds of setups you wait for. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2007 2:35:53 PM

SPY $145.50 -0.32% ...

Jane Fox : 2/22/2007 2:35:42 PM

VIX is spiking upward but not to new daily highs.

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2007 2:35:01 PM

I'm thinking a break to new lows could "sour" broader market sentiment.

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2007 2:34:17 PM

New Century Financial (NEW) alert! $16.42 -6.38% ... this would have been the bullish stop alert on past bullish stock position.

Jane Fox : 2/22/2007 2:33:17 PM

TICKS -1000 yes Virginia that is a minus sign.

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2007 2:25:13 PM

Did I hear her right? In Mexico you can get a "very affordable" 30-year fixed rate mortgage at 12%?

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2007 2:23:29 PM

SPY 145.68 -0.20% ... hast come back to test its DAILY Pivot. You can see that "dart lower" this morning below the DAILY Pivot on that sell program premium.

One could say a "pivotal" intra-day level.

Keene Little : 2/22/2007 2:17:14 PM

The DOW is breaking its uptrend line off this morning's low so the bounce could be over. Otherwise I see Fib potential for a bounce to 12700-12710.

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2007 2:12:40 PM

Not a whole lot of action in the TLT-CJ today. 15 contracts with low/high of $0.80/$0.95.

Currently $0.65 x $0.75 with TLT $88.13 -0.63% ...

Tab Gilles : 2/22/2007 2:10:03 PM

Weekly EIA Report Link

Marc Eckelberry : 2/22/2007 2:00:07 PM

Back for a sec. ADVDEC lines not improving and VIX is still bullish. Stay short for now and stops should be moved down to 12745. 20 DMA at 12672 held, that is what bulls want to defend. We had 2 tests of that earlier, a third will not hold. For now, it's chop, but there is no bullish conviction. Not sure how it will end, but watch the VIX. For now, there is not enough volume in the selling to breakdown below the 20 DMA, but it can change.

Jane Fox : 2/22/2007 1:57:40 PM

Here is an updated chart of Crude. See this technical analysis stuff does work - at least sometimes. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2007 2:00:07 PM

WFMI / OATS "Watch List" comparisons at this Link

We/I got "whacked" on an OATS long a couple of months ago when WFMI reported earnings, where their "growh rate" forecast didn't live up to historical growth rates at the time.

Arbitragers short WFMI and long OATS make out OK from the looks of things.

Please Note: I place MUCH GREATER WEIGHT on technicals than fundamental analysis, but fundamentals somewhat useful. Some place MUCH greater weight on fundamentals, but as SPX.X action since mid-September has shown, it isn't always what some think it should be.

Keene Little : 2/22/2007 1:52:50 PM

RUT roadmap update. If the current pullback leads to a new high I'd watch the Fib projection at 832.52 for at least a short term high. The bullish wave pattern calls for a pullback and then a final run higher into March, with upside Fib targets (depending on far it pulls back) near 833 to as high as 845-850. Link

I know some of you have RUT 850/860 bear call spreads so I'll stay on top of this pattern and let you know whether I think there's a good chance for the RUT to make that bullish run. Because of this pattern it takes a drop through 799, the Jan 16 high, to confirm the bulls are finished.

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2007 1:48:53 PM

Whole Foods Market (WFMI) $51.84 +13.45% Link ... Today's trade at $51.00 does get this NDX/QQQQ component back on a "buy signal."

Seems a little "overdone" to the upside in my opinion, but as noted when we/I were long OATS, when WFMI reported those horrible earnings back in November, there was a high likelihood that WFMI would eventually buy OATS.

Thus I'm thinking there were some arbitragers short WFMI and long OATS as a pairs trade. Both gaining, expecially WFMI +13% is a bit of a surprise.

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2007 1:42:07 PM

SPY "bad ticked" to $145.17 (just about MONTHLY R1 to the penny). I've got session low at $145.20.

Human intervention?

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2007 1:36:48 PM

I'd start calling them "bull flags" then ... ;)

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2007 1:35:58 PM

01:15 Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 2/22/2007 1:30:11 PM

We're still bear flagging but we've seen enough of these bear flags bust out the top side so caution is still required. Odds are that we'll see this drop back down and it's possible that last poke higher did it (a-b-c-x-a-b-c bounce).

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2007 1:18:23 PM

01:15 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2007 1:15:14 PM

General Motors (GM) $34.75 -1.75% ... on Friday I thought I got "juked out" of my long with stop below prior day's low as stock whipped back higher on the DCX news.

Keene Little : 2/22/2007 12:58:00 PM

This 2-min chart shows the small ascending wedge for NDX's bounce. The drop today is either just an a-b-c pullback which will lead to more new highs, or it's a 1-2, 1-2 decline which would say the next leg down is going to be a very sharp drop. If NDX drops to a new daily low from here it'll probably be a screamer. Otherwise the bulls are still in control here. It's hinting of breaking down as I finish this. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2007 12:57:01 PM

Baker Hughes (BHI) $65.40 +1.31% ... if ANYONE thinks they got "juked out" with prior stop, PLENTY of time to get back long and at a LOWER price.

Right James Cramer? Right!

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2007 12:55:26 PM

Oil Serice HOLDRs (OIH) 138.92 +1.51% ... sticks its head back above a rounding lower 200-day SMA.

Is the 4th time a charm?

Keene Little : 2/22/2007 12:55:00 PM

No luck on NDX rolling over. But the bounce looks like a bear flag and is even forming a small ascending wedge. If it blasts out the top by getting above 1842 then there's a good chance it will continue back up to its highs. The pullback today is only a 3-wave correction so far.

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2007 12:51:57 PM

USO's WEEKLY R1 right here at $50.43.

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2007 12:46:18 PM

Session low on USO pretty much tags MONTHLY 38.2% of $49.50. MONTHLY Pivot $47.41, MONTHLY R1 at $52.25

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2007 12:45:05 PM


Keene Little : 2/22/2007 12:42:57 PM

It'll be interesting to see if NDX rolls back over here. This morning's bounce was 5 bars on the 5-min chart and the current bounce is 13 bars. Both are Fib numbers and the ratio is the 2nd bounce is 262% of the 1st bounce. Let's see if the bears take the ball again.

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2007 12:38:58 PM

Better get a MONTHLY Pivot retracement on USO $50.41 +1.10% ... stronger than I would have thought.

PTR $121.17 -0.21% ...

Keene Little : 2/22/2007 12:35:39 PM

Roadmap update for SPX. If this does turn around and head higher again (I'm assumng we'll first get a minor new low today) then the upside Fib projections are near 1465 and then 1475. The bulls would certainly be smacking their lips thinking SPX 1500 is within reach (I don't think so). Otherwise the bears need a break below 1431 to let them know they're in charge. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2007 12:30:50 PM

Analog Devices sees sales, profit boost

Bizjournals.com Story Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2007 12:29:12 PM

Analog Devices (ADI) $36.52 +9.60% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2007 12:25:44 PM

SPX.X ... PnF chart using a 2% box size at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2007 12:23:30 PM

DHF ... $4.32 ... recently declared monthly dividend of $0.0285/share, so that x 12-months = $0.342/year.

SEC Yield at $4.32 benchmarking would be 7.916%.

Keene Little : 2/22/2007 12:23:22 PM

SPX jumped a tad higher than my guess for the bounce and now it needs to roll back over otherwise a press higher again will start to look more bullish. If ES is finished bouncing, equality between its 1st and 5th waves down today gives us a downside projection at 1451.75, two ticks below Monday's low.

There's a reason I would look to buy today's low if it looks like support is going to hold around the ES 1452 area--it's possible that the impulsive move down today is finishing up the sideways correction over the past several days (it would be a c-wave down today instead of the start of a bearish move). We've seen enough of these sharp declines get reversed hard to warn us it's quite possible we'll see it again.

We're inside a turn window now so bulls need to be very cautious of topping here but with the turn window extending into mid March the bears need to be cautious about the possibility this rally has a couple more weeks to go.

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2007 12:21:09 PM

PHF ... $10.20 ... its SEC at this price would be 8.823%

5-year 4.719%

10-year 4.726%

30-year 4.826%

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2007 12:19:25 PM

This morning on CNBC, a guest analyst mentione "junk bond" yield spreads between junk and Treasury.

EXCELLENT comments and observations in my opinion.

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2007 12:18:13 PM

Pacholder High Yield (PHF) $10.20 +0.29% ...

Dreyfus High Yield (DHF) $4.33 (unch) ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2007 12:16:42 PM

Bond and dollar action is perplexing today, if thinking "headline risk" out of Iran.

If "headline risk," then I would have to be surprised that investors are SELLING some safety.

If "inflation" and thought of Fed tightening, then perhaps a bigger bid in the dollar.

Keene Little : 2/22/2007 12:14:31 PM

CME is reaching the level where I'd be cautious if you're short the stock. A Fib level at 554.40 is only a couple dollars away (it's where there would be two equal legs down from Feb 8). There's a potential sideways triangle pattern that could be playing out (in light green on the chart) which would be a bullish consolidation. I have trouble with that interpretation only because of my bearish bias for the broader market but I'll let price do the talking here). Link

A break below 554 would probably have the uptrend line from August tested, currently near 540, or the Fib target just under 539. That also could be strong support to launch the next rally leg (dark green). A break below 535 would suggest the bears are in control (in red).

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2007 12:14:15 PM


DJ- Both firms are free to use the iPhone trademark on their respective products throughout the world. Deal means Cisco will drop a trademark lawsuit against Apple over its iPhone, due out in June.

AAPL $89.21 +0.01% Link ...

CSCO $27.27 -0.40% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2007 12:11:58 PM


DJ- Brewer plans a joint venture with Crown Beers India, which will give A-B entry into India's beer market. A-B will brew, market and distribute Budweiser and other beers in the country.

BUD $50.51 -0.31% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2007 12:08:40 PM


DJ- Wall Street's leading trade group has called a meeting of its board of directors for today to revisit the group's stance on allowing non-financial companies to offer banking services.

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2007 12:02:03 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List at this Link ... Added NFI (latest subprime debacle) to Watch List.

Keene Little : 2/22/2007 12:01:59 PM

As I watch SPX and where the current bounce might get to, and play with some Fib projections, it would work out well for the 5-wave move down to finish at Tuesday's 1449.20 low. For the 1st and 5th waves to be equal that would mean the current 4th wave bounce should top out at 1454.37. Two equal legs up in its current bounce "coincidentally" lands right at 1454.37 (ES 1456.75). So watch to see if that marks the top of the bounce and then short it for the last ride down of the day.

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2007 11:53:51 AM

TLT-CJ bid/ask $0.75 x $0.80

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2007 11:51:44 AM

iShares Lehman 20-year (AMEX:TLT) $88.20 -0.55% ... backfills its 02/14-2/15 gap.

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2007 11:50:27 AM

30-year Yield ($TYX.X) up 4.2 bp at 4.831% ... trades 38.2% of 05/12/06 high yield close to recent 12/01/06 low yield close.

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2007 11:45:00 AM

QQQQ $45.19 (unch) ... yesterday afternoon (04:18:42 PM EST) I said/typed that NASDAQ NH/NL looked very similar to that found on 01/24/07.

Today's action almost "identical" to 1/25/07 bar.

Keene Little : 2/22/2007 11:44:57 AM

SPX bounced off its 30-min 130-pma at 1450.57. The sharp move from the high near 11:00 AM looks like a 3rd wave (it stopped just shy of 162% of the 1st wave down from this morning's high). If true we should now get a small 4th wave consolidation that takes a little longer than this morning's bounce and then continue lower in a 5th wave.

If it plays out this way (instead of just rallying straight back up from here, leaving a 3-wave corrective pullback), look for equality between that 5th wave and the 1st wave down from this morning's high (which was 5.23 points) as an opportunity to play the bounce if you'd like. That 5-wave move down will be followed by a stronger bounce back up to correct today's decline (use a 38%-62% retracement as a guide for upside targets).

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2007 11:40:55 AM

March-June Fed Fund futures all 94.75/94.76 ... (100 - 94.75) = 5.25%

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2007 11:39:26 AM

13-week Yield ($IRX.X) up 0.5 bp at 5.040%

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2007 11:38:29 AM

US To Sell $38.0 Billion T-Bills Monday (Vs. $36.0 Billion)

DJ- The Treasury plans to raise about $3.99 billion in fresh cash Monday with the sale of about $38.00 billion in short-term bills to redeem $34.01 billion in maturing bills.

The sale amount is up from $36.00 billion sold at the previous weekly T-bill auction.

The offering will include $21.00 billion of 13-week bills, and $17.00 billion of 26-week bills, which will be dated March 1 and will mature May 31 and Aug. 30, 2006, respectively.

The Federal Reserve holds $18.29 billion of maturing three- and six-month bills for its own account.

Noncompetitive tenders for the bills, available in minimum denominations of $1,000, must be received by 12 p.m. EST on Monday.

Competitive tenders for the bills, available in minimum denominations of $1,000, must be received by 1 p.m. EST on Monday.

The CUSIP number for the three-month bills is 912795ZJ3, and the CUSIP number for the six-month bills is 912795ZX2.

Keene Little : 2/22/2007 11:36:48 AM

Today GOOG jumped up and tagged its Fib target at 483.65 (this morning's high was 484.22) which is the level where the 2nd leg up in the rally from Feb 12 is equal to 162% of the 1st leg up. That a-b-c bounce also tagged the top of a parallel down-channel for price action since the January high. Great shorting opportunity there. Link

Now we'll see how the decline develops (assuming we'll start down from here) and whether it looks more like a b-wave (choppy and sloppy) or something more impulsive. A choppy move down would suggest another rally leg coming (shown in green) while an impulsive decline would suggest at least a test of it longer term uptrend line near 440. A break of that uptrend line would obviously be longer term bearish.

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2007 11:31:22 AM

Sell Program Premium ... SPY $145.33

Jane Fox : 2/22/2007 11:23:10 AM

HOUSTON (MarketWatch) -- The energy sector moved cautiously higher after federal data Thursday revealed an increase in U.S. oil inventories but a decline in gasoline, distillates and natural-gas supplies.

Crude supplies rose 3.7 million barrels in the week ended Feb. 16, the Energy Department said. Distillate supplies dropped by 5 million barrels and gasoline supplies fell 3.1 million barrels. Natural-gas inventories went down 223 billion cubic feet in the latest week.

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2007 11:22:38 AM

Sell Program Premium about 2-minutes ago. 1st of the day.

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2007 11:21:46 AM

11:05 Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 2/22/2007 11:21:16 AM

Since market tops are typically rolling affairs, with different indices and sectors making tops at different times (sometimes by months as it did in 2000), it's not at all unreasonable to think that the DOW has already topped out and NDX has a bit further to go. But if NDX were to drop below 1835 then it negates the short term bullish pattern. It's about to do it as I type. That fat lady is starting to sing louder.

Jane Fox : 2/22/2007 11:21:15 AM

VIX to new daily highs.

Jane Fox : 2/22/2007 11:20:01 AM

TICKS are now chiming in -800

Jane Fox : 2/22/2007 11:19:38 AM

AD line is now -625 and I think we have our direction. Sell the rallies.

Jane Fox : 2/22/2007 11:19:07 AM

YM tags its PDL and finds support. NQ is finding support at its PDH! Link

Keene Little : 2/22/2007 11:18:59 AM

If NDX breaks below 1835 that would be trouble for the bulls.

Jane Fox : 2/22/2007 11:15:24 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Even the most die hard gold bear has to admit that the recent price action in gold has been indicative of a very healthy bull market. It's alive and well, even after the best efforts by naysayers to smack it down.

Gold rallied over $20 Wednesday on news that the government is still concerned about inflation. That combined with a rise in oil prices and growing fear over a confrontation with Iran and suddenly April gold is right back up to near $700. The lack of fanfare from the business media and the seemingly unnoticed strength in gold are a good sign. A true bull market often flies under the radar.

Gold bulls don't see this move as a surprise but still welcome it anyway. The metals markets have been a tough place for the commodities trade and mining shares have not been much gentler with investors either. Wicked swings in pricing and heavy volatility have made the metals a tricky place to trade indeed. Traders may be left scratching their heads at this point after the rally, wondering what if any ways are there to still play any coming rally. There are many, and some are better than others.

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2007 11:08:13 AM

11:05 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2007 11:02:56 AM

EIA: SPR Stockpiles unchanged at 688.6 million barrels.

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2007 11:02:18 AM

EIA: Weekly Heating Oil Stockpiles down 4.1 million barrels to 46.68 million barrels.

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2007 11:01:26 AM

EIA: Weekly Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel Stockpiles down 162,000 barrels to 39.13 million barrels.

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2007 11:00:17 AM

EIA: ULS Diesel Stockpiles down 528,000 barrels to 58.04 million barrels.

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2007 10:59:23 AM

EIA: Weekly Total Distillate Stockpiles down 5.03 million barrels to 128.29 million barrels.

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2007 10:58:23 AM

EIA: Weekly Total Gasoline Stockpiles down 3.04 million barrels to 222.11 million barrels.

Jane Fox : 2/22/2007 10:57:34 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - Xinhua Finance Media Ltd. filed to raise about $300 million in an initial public offering on the Nasdaq Stock Market.

The Shanghai financial news gathering service plans to offer 23.1 million American depositary shares at an estimated price of $12-$14 each, under the symbol XFML.

Underwriters for the deal include J.P. Morgan (, UBS Investment Bank , CIBC World Markets, W.R. Hambrecht and ABN Amro.

Xinhua reported 2006 net income of $3.3 million and revenue of $59 million. The company operates print media, TV and radio programming distributed in China.

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2007 10:56:44 AM

US Oil Fund (USO) $49.98 +0.24% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2007 10:56:23 AM

"Should" pressure oil a bit.

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2007 10:55:54 AM

My # Days of Supply rises to 21.75 from last week's 21.37.

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2007 10:54:39 AM

EIA: Weekly Crude Oil Stockpiles up 3.69 million barrels to 327.58 million.

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2007 10:47:54 AM

EIA: US Weekly Gross Inputs Into Refineries down 248,000 barrels/day.

Weekly Refinery Operable Capacity ... unchanged at 17,400 barrels/day.

US Weekly % Utilization of Refinery Operable Capacity ... falls to 85.22% from prior week's 86.64%.

Keene Little : 2/22/2007 10:43:12 AM

Similar to the SPX chart I showed, NDX would look better with a pullback (could turn into a sideways choppy consolidation today) followed by another push higher in order to finish a short term wave count from Tuesday's low. I don't trust this pullback yet as the start of something more serious to the downside. The DOW may have already topped, it's questionable for the SPX, and the NDX could use another minor high so we've got some mixed signals and indices here. Expecting another high could be the "one more high" that's a no-show. Risky either way at the moment.

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2007 10:43:05 AM

Iran Refuses To Suspend Uranium Enrichment - UN Nuclear Chief

Marc Eckelberry : 2/22/2007 10:42:34 AM

Back for sec. I took that short and I'm pretty happy. My stop is at 12772, just above 50% yesterday and enough room above monthly R1. It's interest rates. That ten year yield is too attractive given the risks going forward with equities this high and in need of a pause. What better place to park money and sit and wait and see what happens with NYS 9455, THE line in the sand going forward for equities. Gotta go again, but short is the way today as long as TNX is above 47.10.

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2007 10:39:40 AM

U.S. Oil Fund (USO) $50.05 +0.38% ... $1 box Link

$0.50 box Link ... to "match" futures.

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2007 10:38:08 AM

Having problems accessing EIA's crude oil inventory data.

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2007 10:35:54 AM

HL Camp's Buy/Sell Programs Link

Keene Little : 2/22/2007 10:35:44 AM

The DOW has now broken its 2nd uptrend line from Feb 12 through yesterday's low. If SPX breaks its uptrend line near 1456 then there's the possibility that the fat lady is singing. I'll show the bearish wave count if that happens and it's entirely possible. Just stay wary of the whipsaw price action we're getting.

Keene Little : 2/22/2007 10:33:21 AM

The brief foray into new high territory sure didn't last long for NDX. They got slapped silly for even trying. Now we'll see what happens after they close this morning's gap--another poke lower will do it at 1838.88 (NQ 1844.75).

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2007 10:32:01 AM

EIA Weekly Nat Gas Storage Table Link ... draw of 223 Bcf.

Jane Fox : 2/22/2007 10:30:59 AM

AD line has fallen to under 0 but only to -78. AD volume is still above 0. We had bullishness in the morning and I went long ER but have been stopped out and will remain flat until I see the internals tell me which way to go.

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2007 10:30:49 AM

US Oil Fund (AMEX:USO) $49.85 -0.02% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2007 10:26:44 AM


DJ- Gold producer reports 4Q net income of $223 million, or 50c a share, which includes 2c from discontinued operations. Analysts expected EPS of 40c. Revenue rises 13% to $1.46 billion. Barrick Gold's (ABX) profit more than doubles.

NEM $47.60 +1.31% Link ... Reversing double top buy signal at $48.

ABX $31.99 -0.37% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2007 10:22:39 AM


DJ- Google today is marching further into Microsoft's core turf with a bundle of services targeted at corporations, including Web-based word-processing and spreadsheet applications.

GOOG $482.47 +1.38% Link

MSFT $29.37 +0.06% Link ...

Jane Fox : 2/22/2007 10:20:06 AM

ES is making new daily lows without the VIX making new daily highs.

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2007 10:19:51 AM

NFI $9.68 -4.15% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2007 10:19:17 AM

HBC $89.33 -0.03% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2007 10:18:42 AM

NEW $17.14 -2.33% Link ...

Keene Little : 2/22/2007 10:18:01 AM

This market has all the evidence of distribution--push it up, sell into it, push it up, sell into, rinse and repeat. Classic topping action.

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2007 10:17:15 AM


DJ- Home builder posts net income of $54.3 million, or 33c a share, which includes writedowns of 36c and goodwill-impairment charge of 3c. Excluding those, earnings are still 27% lower as revenue declines 19% to $1.09 billion. Toll cuts fiscal-year target for home deliveries by 300 to 6,000-7,000 and lowers EPS forecast to $1.46-$1.85 from $1.58-$2.08.

TOL $32.54 -0.97% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2007 10:14:59 AM

Intel (INTC) $20.87 -0.04% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2007 10:14:38 AM

Texas Instruments (TXN) $31.96 +3.16% ...

Keene Little : 2/22/2007 10:14:05 AM

SPX could push a little higher (it may not though) before starting a choppy pullback for the rest of the day. This updated SPX 30-min chart shows how I think the next 2 days could play out. I'm assuming for now that we're going to see SPX chop its way higher into tomorrow in a final small ascending wedge. Link

The internal Fib projections for this move point to 1465 as a good upside target. If at any time it breaks below the uptrend line from Feb 12, currently near 1456, then that will be a heads up that something more bearish may have started. A break below 1449 would confirm that. In the meantime bears should keep their powder dry since we might be a day away from a better setup.

Jane Fox : 2/22/2007 10:12:14 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - The brokerage sector led a recovery in financial stocks Thursday as jitters surrounding the sub-prime mortgage sector began to calm. Keefe Bruyette & Woods said in a note to clients that the mortgage sector generally reported weak fourth quarter earnings, but added that credit problems remained largely confined to the sub-prime space. "Lenders we visited noted that credit tightening has been relatively recent and credit remains readily available to non-subprime borrowers," KBW said in a note to clients. The Amex Securities Broker Dealer Index ($XBD) rose 0.7%. The Philadelphia Banking Index ($BKX) added 0.2%. The S&P Insurance Index (IUX) added 0.3%. Novastar (NFI) shed 5.7% to $9.52.

Jane Fox : 2/22/2007 10:11:20 AM

Jan. help-wanted index falls to 32 vs. 34

Marc Eckelberry : 2/22/2007 10:11:07 AM

Price is all that matters. If YM can't get above 12779, the trend has shifted for the big guy. Watch yields above 4.7% again. The inflation scare is still with us.

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2007 10:09:23 AM

US Commercial Real Estate Index At Historic High In 4Q - NAR

DJ- A gauge of future strength in the commercial real estate sector rose for the seventh straight quarter, again reaching a record high, but the rate of growth in the industry may be leveling out, the National Association of Realtors said Thursday.

The forward-looking index - dubbed the Commercial Leading Indicator for Brokerage Activity - rose 0.1% in the fourth quarter to a level of 120.1 from an index of 120.0 in the third quarter.

The index is 1.8% above the fourth quarter of 2005 when it stood at 118.1.

NAR has been tracking the index since 1990.

David Lereah, NAR's chief economist, said commercial real estate growth may be hitting a plateau after a period of sustained growth. "Our commercial leading indicator is at a record high, but it is now leveling out," Lereah said in a statement. "The rate of expansion has been fairly tame over the last three quarters, which means that growth in commercial real estate sectors is likely to be modest."

Following "respectable" growth in 2005 and 2006, the fourth quarter's smaller rise in the index means "net absorption of space in the industrial and office sectors should be fairly steady over the next six to nine months," NAR said.

Marc Eckelberry : 2/22/2007 10:09:10 AM

YM is a short below 12779. I can't be around to baby sit that one, but we have repeated failure at YM 5 DMA and NYSE 9455.

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2007 10:02:03 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2007 9:57:45 AM

Semiconductor HOLDRs (AMEX:SMH) $35.34 +2.49% Link ... hot out of the gate. Gap higher began at WEEKLY R1.

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2007 9:55:17 AM

Google (GOOG) $482.32 +1.35% Link ... 50% retracement of 11/21/06 all-time high close to recent 12/22/06 low close.

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2007 9:51:55 AM

QQQQ $45.50 +0.66% ... New 52-week and multi-year high!

Jeff Bailey : 2/22/2007 9:50:14 AM

Swing trade NAKED put closed alert ... for the eBay EBAY Mar $30 Puts (XBA-OF) at the offer of $0.05.

EBAY $33.93 +1.28% ...

Jane Fox : 2/22/2007 9:46:07 AM

TICKS +800.

Jane Fox : 2/22/2007 9:43:39 AM

VIX to new daily lows tells me ES will be making new daily highs here soon.

Keene Little : 2/22/2007 9:43:38 AM

NDX (and the Qs) has stalled right at the January high. If it consolidates here for a little bit then you can bet it will punch through and follow the COMP to new highs. Otherwise look for a pullback to at least close this morning's gap.

Keene Little : 2/22/2007 9:38:34 AM

Using Friday as a turn date and some potential Fib targets for SPX (depending on how I count the move up in its ascending wedge) near 1465-1467, we could see a choppy rise to that area. A rally over 1461 would have me looking to those levels. It takes a break below 1449 now to say the the rally could be finished. Link

Jane Fox : 2/22/2007 9:33:03 AM

VIX opens at its PDL and TRIN is 0.71.

Jane Fox : 2/22/2007 9:32:41 AM

AD line +259 and AD volume above 0.

Keene Little : 2/22/2007 9:22:25 AM

We've got a bullish start to the day with equity futures having climbed steadily all night. Bonds sold off and that has yields higher again this morning. That should make it a tough environment for techs and small caps but tell that to those who are buying up here. Whether this leads to a rally today or just a gap n crap remains to be seen.

If the techs and small caps manage to drag the rest of the market up higher then that will be bullish. With a potential turn date of Feb 23rd (Friday), we could have another 2 days of rally left in this market. But with so many signals now that we're topping I'd be reluctant to play the long side. The choppy price action just adds to the diffculty in day trading this market. Be careful.

Jane Fox : 2/22/2007 9:17:07 AM

Here is a daily chart of the US$ Link and here is the daily chart of Gold. Link

Which one do you think will rally and which one fall?

Jane Fox : 2/22/2007 9:14:38 AM

Gold and the US$ have lost their correlation of late and it will be interesting to see which one will eventually take the lead; gold down or US $ down. I don't know which will win because I have seen the $ lead Gold and Gold lead the $ but all I know is that eventually one will lead the other. I will go out on a limb here and say I think Gold will continue its rally and the $ will fall - based on the daily charts. Link

Jane Fox : 2/22/2007 9:11:18 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures edged lower early Thursday, a day after they rallied to a seven-month high, but oil prices, inflationary concerns and global political tensions are likely to keep the precious metal underpinned.

Gold for April delivery was last down $1 at $683 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

"We could see $700 per ounce this week and the run to the last high of $730 is only days behind that move," said Neal Ryan, director of economic research at Blanchard.

On Wednesday, gold closed up $23 at $684 an ounce, its highest close since July 7. The metal began its rally after the Labor Department said consumer inflation rose at a faster-than-expected pace in January. A surge in the oil market, Iran's continuing refusal to stop uranium enrichment and other global political tensions also boosted gold

Jane Fox : 2/22/2007 9:07:58 AM

Overnight ES tagged its PDH but was not able to break through and YM didn't have enough power to even test its PDH. But take a look at NQ and ER, both have broken their respective PDHs.

The higher highs and lows in all markets will lead to a bullish open.

So far this week both the AD line and AD volume have been very bearish in the morning but the VIX has been bullish and we have ended up with relatively bullish closes both days. I want these internals in sync today because when they are not it makes my trading much more treacherous. Link

Jane Fox : 2/22/2007 8:58:11 AM

Dateline WSJ - Apple Inc. and Cisco Systems Inc. agreed to resolve a trademark dispute over the term iPhone that had threatened to put a damper on the introduction of Apple's most eagerly anticipated electronics product in years.

Under their agreement, Cisco, of San Jose, Calif., and Apple, of Cupertino, Calif., are free to use the iPhone trademark on their respective products throughout the world. Cisco will drop a lawsuit it filed against Apple in federal court in San Francisco, accusing Apple of infringing on a Cisco trademark with a forthcoming cellphone called the iPhone, due out in June.

In a joint statement, Apple and Cisco said they will explore opportunities for making their products work better together "in the areas of security, and consumer and enterprise communications." The companies said other terms of the settlement are confidential, declining to comment further.

By reaching a deal, the two Silicon Valley icons head off a battle that potentially could have dragged on for years, and possibly led to an injunction to block Apple's use of the iPhone name.

Jane Fox : 2/22/2007 8:53:40 AM

BOSTON (MarketWatch) -- Toll Brothers Inc. early Thursday said its quarterly profit fell sharply from a year earlier on land-related write-downs as the luxury-home builder's chief executive said it's too early in the spring selling season to pronounce a broad recovery in the housing market.

The Horsham, Pa., company (TOL) reported fiscal first-quarter net income fell 67% on 19% lower revenue, and also lowered its 2007 profit outlook.

For the quarter ended Jan. 31, earnings declined to $54.3 million, or 33 cents a share, from $163.9 million, or 98 cents, in the year-ago period. A survey of analysts by Thomson Financial produced a consensus estimate of 29 cents.

"There are too many soft markets at this stage of the selling season to call a general upturn in the new home market," said Chief Executive Robert Toll in a statement. "Demand varies greatly from week to week in individual markets."

Jane Fox : 2/22/2007 8:52:25 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Crude-oil futures were slightly lower early Thursday as warmer temperatures in the northeastern U.S. weighed against tensions surrounding Iran and its nuclear program and a series of refinery glitches that have propped up gasoline prices in recent sessions

Other energy futures were flat as traders await the release at 10.30 a.m. of weekly data on supplies of oil and its products. The data is being released a day later than usual because of the Presidents Day holiday. Data on natural gas in storage will also be released.

The data is expected to show whether the recent bitterly cold spell in the Northeast, the region that consumes the most heating oil in the U.S., has had a real impact on what are unusually high inventories following a mostly mild winter.

Crude for April delivery was down 35 cents at $59.72 a barrel. On Wednesday, the contract closed above $60 a barrel, a level it has found hard to hold since the start of the year.

Jane Fox : 2/22/2007 8:49:26 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- First-time claims for state unemployment benefits fell last week, as the four-week average of such claims rose to its highest level since early December.

Seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims fell by 27,000 to stand at 359,000 in the week ended Feb. 17, the Labor Department reported Thursday.

But the four-week average of new claims -- which smoothes out one-time events such as holidays or weather -- rose by 1,250 to 326,250. It's the highest since the week of Dec. 2.

At the same time, the number of people collecting unemployment benefits in the week ended Feb. 10 fell by 45,000. At 2.5 million, this was the lowest figures seen in two weeks.

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