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OI Technical Staff : 2/23/2007 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

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Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2007 9:03:28 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

A hunger for yield? Utilities HOLDRs (UTH) $135.61 +1.46%

Keene Little : 2/23/2007 4:18:52 PM

Hopefully this DOW 30-min chart is not too confusing with both the bearish and bullish wave counts on them. They both count out the same as far as looking for another minor low to finish the count and I continue to look for support near 12600. It will be the following bounce that will hopefully provide some clues as to where it may be headed next. In any case, an early drop on Monday should set up at least a 1-2 day rally. Link

Keene Little : 2/23/2007 4:07:42 PM

Welcome to a 4th or b-wave correction Jane. They're both the same--horrible to trade. But it's why I'm holding over the weekend--we're due at least one more leg down before it sets up at least a larger bounce. Hope everyone has a great weekend. I'll post some updated charts if they're yelling something important to me.

Jane Fox : 2/23/2007 4:05:19 PM

This has not been an easy day to trade.

Keene Little : 2/23/2007 3:58:29 PM

I still like a short held over for the weekend.

Keene Little : 2/23/2007 3:56:39 PM

Yesterday's daily candle on the NDX was a spinning top doji at a potential double top and the top of its parallel channel from January Today it looks like we're going to have a hanging man doji. This is either indecision at this level (makes sense) or it's a double bearish candlestick pattern at a double top. Link

Double your pleasure and add to your short position? I think I'd hold off on that call and wait to see how it resolves here. I've got more trend lines on this chart than Carter has pills. One of these days it's going to lay its cards on the table. Until then the NDX is playing a great game of poker here.

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2007 3:51:20 PM

I have to leave for a couple of hours. I'll updated things later this afternoon.

Keene Little : 2/23/2007 3:41:41 PM

Widening the view just a tad, this daily chart of CME shows a potential upside target near 617 if we've got a 5th wave up to finish its bullish wave count. Also from a daily perspective I lowered the key level for the bearish wave count to a break of its uptrend line from April 2005, currently near 520. The choppy and overlapping price pattern leaves open several possibilities from here so follow the trend lines for now. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2007 3:39:50 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2007 3:33:37 PM

iShares Lehman 20-year (AMEX:TLT) $88.79 +0.65% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2007 3:30:01 PM

Then ... whatever you do, DO NOT review my commentary from 12/26/06 at 04:47:02 MM Link

:O

Actually, you'd better, and make sure you've tried to make some adjustments.

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2007 3:27:04 PM

PHF ... QCharts users ... the 52-week high is $10.30 (bad tick to $10.40 on 09/18/07). I've got a 0% retracement way down at $8.50. Check it out (especially the 12/26/06 relative low)

Keene Little : 2/23/2007 3:25:29 PM

I see CME made it down to its uptrend line from August. By dropping through 554 I'd say it removed the possibility for a sideways triangle that I had shown on its chart yesterday. That leaves two possibilities now--a continuation of the rally to a new high or a break of its uptrend line and confirmation that it's in the middle of a much bigger drop. The bounce off its trend line will tell us--a choppy consolidation here would have me looking for lower. But I'd be careful if short this stock right here considering the upside potential. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2007 3:22:12 PM

NEW $15.82 -4.35%

HBC $88.77 -0.54%

NFI $8.51 -8.77%

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2007 3:19:31 PM

IWM $82.19 -0.24% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2007 3:18:53 PM

Dreyfus High Yield (DHF) $4.34 +0.23% ... up a penny. But caluclating SEC yield in your head.

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2007 3:17:33 PM

Reminder: Treasury markets close at 03:00 PM EST.

After another very strong session for Treasury's, we take some notes from the corporate bond markets.

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2007 3:16:30 PM

BIX.X 409.27 -1.04% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2007 3:16:14 PM

RKH $165.24 -0.89% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2007 3:15:47 PM

Junk bond alert! ... PHF $10.23 +0.39% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2007 3:14:23 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 2/23/2007 3:11:46 PM

It may not be the prettiest wave count for an impulsive move down on the DOW, which is why I showed how it would count out an a corrective pullback (1:51), but from an EW rule standpoint there is nothing wrong with the bearish impulsive wave count, updated here: Link

In fact, the consolidation just above its uptrend line from November is taking on a bearish feel to it (especially if it continues chopping sideways for another few hours on Monday). Traders are obviously front running that support level but it's not going anywhere. That says the sellers are getting stronger. It's possible we're going to see the 12600 level give way on Monday but it may not get far since it could be finishing up the 5th wave down in that case.

That would set up a stronger bounce into next week. Based on what I see this afternoon I'd be comfortable holding a short over the weekend. But as I show on the chart, any push back above 12689 would be enough reason to cover your short position.

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2007 3:03:07 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2007 2:58:29 PM

IWM gets active above that 2.9 million share spike at 02:30 PM EST. ... #8 most active now.

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2007 2:50:44 PM

PHF $10.20 (unch) ... my "subprime" index over the years for the broader economy/stock market.

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2007 2:48:48 PM

Need to check into that index. Didn't know it existed. Will see if QCharts has it.

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2007 2:47:31 PM

RISKY ABX INDEX SLICE HITS RECORD WIDE

DJ- Benchmark derivative index measuring subprime mortgage risk continues its widening streak, setting a fresh record of weakness. ABX index recently trades in 1,400-1,500 basis points area, above yesterday's record wide of 1,200.

Keene Little : 2/23/2007 2:37:34 PM

It's been a while since I've shown the chart for MER. As goes MER so goes the market, or so many believe. Many traders follow MER so it's worth keeping an eye on it. It has dropped from its high in January and for the first time since July it is below its 50-dma. That's obviously not a good sign for the bulls. Today it dropped off the "shelf" near $91 and the brokers in general are not having a good day today (XBD is down -1.8%). Link

The thing I like about the MER chart, from a bearish perspective, is where it topped out. A longer term Fib projection for its 5th wave on the weekly chart (the run up from June) was at 98.48 and the 5th wave projection for the run up from June was at 97.53. It topped out at 98.68 on Jan 16.

The move up from June holds the possibility for needing one more rally leg and considering the sloppy pullback so far I'd have to say that's still a decent possibility. So both counts stay on the chart for now until we get more proof of what's happening.

Keene Little : 2/23/2007 2:35:14 PM

I'd be a little careful here about chasing this to the upside. The bounce has a corrective feel to it and this spike up might be finishing the correction.

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2007 2:34:56 PM

NASDAQ Telecom Index (IXTCX) 250.02 +0.42% ... that's a new 52-weeker.

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2007 2:26:19 PM

QUALCOMM, BROADCOM TO DROP SOME PATENT CLAIMS

DJ- Long-standing legal rivals agree to dismiss all claims and counterclaims associated with two patents belonging to Broadcom and two to Qualcomm. Remaining claims aren't affected.

QCOM $43.42 +1.47% Link ...

BRCM $36.31 -0.30% Link

Jane Fox : 2/23/2007 2:25:27 PM

I would not thinking long here but certainly about getting out of my shorts. HMMM may I should phrase that a tad differently.

Jane Fox : 2/23/2007 2:23:29 PM

Like I said earlier the bulls were lurking and have pushed the TICKS up to +1200.

Keene Little : 2/23/2007 2:01:35 PM

One caution on the DOW pattern that I want to pass along to the bulls. Even though my last chart shows a corrective pullback it may not be. A fairly common pattern for a 1st wave down is called a leading diagonal. Think of an ending diagonal (descending wedge in this case) and it can occur in the 1st wave position.

Assuming we get a bounce off 12600, once we get a 3-wave bounce it will be time to short it just in case it's a 2nd wave correction instead of something more bullish. We have plenty of time to see how that will develop but just a heads up for those who would like to play the long side on this dip. Keep thinking short term trades until the longer term picture clears up.

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2007 1:56:29 PM

YUM TAKES ANOTHER HIT, THIS TIME WITH RATS

DJ- News video shows about a dozen rats running around a KFC-Taco Bell restaurant in Greenwich Village. Video follows E. coli outbreak late last year which sickened dozens of customers.

YUM $60.39 -1.09% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2007 1:53:35 PM

DOMINO'S 4Q NET FALLS 23%, ENDS DIVIDEND

DJ- Pizza delivery chain earns $31 million, or 49c a share, as revenue dips 4.8% to $435.3 million. Analysts expected EPS of 48c on revenue of $448.5 million. It ends regular quarterly dividends in anticipation of a special cash dividend tied to its recapitalization.

DPZ $31.79 -1.57% Link ...

Keene Little : 2/23/2007 1:51:40 PM

With NDX and the RUT looking like they're consolidating for another run higher I'm looking at the decline in the DOW and SPX for some clues as to what they might be doing. I had labeled the decline in the DOW as an impulsive 1-2-3-4-5 move down but I have to say I don't like that count. Each bounce has essentially been a fractal of each other and there's no alternation between them, as is typically found between 2nd and 4th waves. So, a double zigzag a-b-c-x-a-b-c counts out well and the internal Fib projection for it is near DOW 12600, near its uptrend line. Link

If this is just a corrective pullback, as the double zigzag count suggests, then we're due another rally leg. In that case the green A-B-C count would be the correct one and equality in that move points to 12869 for a final high in March (assuming we get down to 12600 for the current decline). So tighten up those stops if you're short and consider the long side if 12600 holds.

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2007 1:48:42 PM

NYMEX FILES STOCK OFFER, REPORTEDLY MAY BE WORTH $1B

DJ- Nymex files to sell an undisclosed amount of common stock after the Wall Street Journal reports that the energy exchange may be considering an offer worth in excess of $1 billion to take advantage of the rise in its stock price.

NMX $137.12 -2.59% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2007 1:46:29 PM

What a comeback intra-day ... INTU $31.23 +1.19% Link ... traded $29.40 in opening minutes. Session highs here.

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2007 1:44:37 PM

H&R BLOCK SEES MORTGAGE UNIT FETCHING $1.3B

DJ- Shares rise 3% after tax preparer says plans are on track to sell its troubled mortgage unit Option One Mortgage, which provides loans for borrowers who have weak credit or don't have the documentation required by conventional lenders.

HRB $23.00 +2.58% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2007 1:40:54 PM

SEMCO ENERGY TO BE ACQUIRED BY CAP ROCK

DJ- Natural gas company's shares surge 30% after it agrees to be bought for $8.15 a share by Cap Rock Energy's parent. Offer is a 37% premium over its five-day average closing price. Deal is valued at $867 million, including $515 million debt.

SEN $7.81 +30.16% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2007 1:35:56 PM

Home Depot (HD) $40.99 -0.46% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2007 1:34:48 PM

LOWE'S 4Q PROFIT TUMBLES 12%, SAYS SALES TREND 'BOTTOMED'

DJ- Home-improvement retailer posts net income of $613 million, or 40c a share, amid housing downturn and tough year-ago comparisons. Sales fall 3.7% to $10.41 billion. Wall Street expected EPS of 37c on revenue of $10.36 billion. Sales at stores open at least a year slips 5.3%, in line with firm's expectations. In the 1Q, Lowe's expects to earn 49c to 51c; analysts expect EPS of 51c.

LOW $34.98 +4.01% Link ... That's an all-time high at $35.00 and a triple top buy signal.

Jane Fox : 2/23/2007 1:26:15 PM

AD line keeps improving and the bears keep losing control of the reins.

Jane Fox : 2/23/2007 1:24:34 PM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Less than half of Americans -- 47% -- are satisfied with their jobs, according to a 2006 survey of 5,000 households released Friday by the Conference Board.

The dissatisfaction is growing. Last year marked the first time a majority of respondents have said they're unhappy at work, according to the occasional survey from the private research organization. ...

The happiest workers are those over 55, those who make more than $50,000 a year, those who put in more than 50 hours a week on the job, and those who live in the Mountain states.

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2007 1:18:34 PM

Looks like coalition making some adjustments. Slight change of strategy, or refocus.

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2007 1:17:24 PM

UK's Defense Secretary: More Troops To Be Sent To Afghanistan

DJ- The U.K. said Friday it will send additional troops to bolster its force in southern Afghanistan.

Defense Minister Des Browne confirmed the deployment in a statement late Friday.

The announcement comes less than a week after Prime Minister Tony Blair told lawmakers that the U.K. will be withdrawing 1,600 of its soldiers from Iraq in coming months.

Keene Little : 2/23/2007 1:17:05 PM

If the DOW were to break below 12600 then the descending wedge is not the pattern and it would suddenly turn potentially much more bearish. In that case I'd watch SPX for support near 1445 and then 1440.

Jane Fox : 2/23/2007 1:16:53 PM

McMillan's weekly update. An entire week has passed since $SPX last broke out strongly on the upside to new 6-year highs. Since then, very little movement has taken place. $SPX is up a measly 1.08 points since then, and its closing range has been a minuscule 4 points over the five-day period. Once again, traders are barraged with the "cup half full" (bullish) theories that the market is working off its overbought condition by going sideways, versus the "cup half empty" (bearish) scenario that the market is living on borrowed time because it hasn't been able to follow through on the upside. We noted similar comments a few weeks ago, and that short- term situation was resolved with a sharp downward move (followed by new highs). We are looking for similar action again.

The reason that we have a negative bias at this point is based on our technical indicators. First, the equity-only put-call ratios are negative. Despite recent new highs in $SPX and the tight range described above, both of these intermediate-term ratios have remained on sell signals throughout this period.

Second, market breadth has remained overbought while $SPX has been in this tight range. By itself, that is not bearish, since we know that the market can rally while overbought conditions exist. However, the fact that breadth indicators have remained overbought contradicts the bulls' contention that the sideways action is alleviating an overbought condition. It hasn't, in fact. More likely, one could conclude that the market is burning up a lot of energy (producing a lot of daily advancing issues) without going anywhere. That type of action often leads to a selloff when the buyers finally take a breather.

Third, the volatility indices remain in "sell" status, as $VXO closed below 10 for six days in a row, and $VIX closed below 10.30 for six days as well. Low $VIX readings are somewhat like high breadth readings -- they indicate the market is overbought. However, when $VIX is this low, it's usually a sign that $VIX is more than overbought. Rather, it's a sell signal.

In summary, we expect the market to have a sharp, but short-lived, correction to actually alleviate the overbought conditions that continue to persist. After that, we expect higher prices. Hence, we are not currently calling for a major top in the market, but we do feel that it certainly needs a minor shakeout before significantly higher prices are possible.

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2007 1:15:35 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 2/23/2007 1:16:00 PM

In the DOW's descending wedge, if that's what's playing out here, a typical finish would be a spike down with a throw-under and then a quick reversal back up. That still gives us DOW 12610 as potential support should that kind of move happen. In the meantime tighten up your stops if you're short. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2007 1:04:05 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Keene Little : 2/23/2007 12:56:55 PM

Let's see if the Boyz returning from lunch drive this down one last time and then do their buying.

Keene Little : 2/23/2007 12:52:31 PM

Bullish divergences are continuing at the new lows for the DOW and SPX. One of these spikes down is going to be the last one.

Keene Little : 2/23/2007 12:44:12 PM

The way the RUT is chopping sideways I'm getting the impression it's going to head to new highs soon. For both the bearish and bullish wave counts it would look best with another push higher out of the current consolidation, perhaps up to about 835. Then it becomes a question as to whether it will be the last high or not. Another choppy consolidation would say the bullish count is the preferred one. An impulsive decline that drops below 799 would say the top is in. Link

Jane Fox : 2/23/2007 12:41:10 PM

If you are short it is safe to stay short just realize that the rescue team is still lurking and you could get caught. So I guess you could say don't let your shorts down.

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2007 12:28:00 PM

RKH daily interval chart with MONTHLY Pivot retracement at this Link ... vastly different than the BIX.X's on MONTHLY.

Jane Fox : 2/23/2007 12:22:18 PM

The bears would certainly be a lot more confident if the AD line were lower so, if short, keep a tight leash on it. The bears have the ball but they do not have good field position and the bulls could make an interception and any time. No slam dunk today. (Mixing sports metaphors is Ok if you are woman) Link

Keene Little : 2/23/2007 12:13:57 PM

The DOW is getting pinched between trend lines and it's looking like a descending wedge is forming, with the bullish divergences supporting the idea that we're close to the bottom for this move. DOW 12610-12620 is the area I'd watch for support, or not (if it breaks through it could be a swift decline). Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2007 12:06:17 PM

Bullish swing trade long raise stop alert ... on the iShares Lehman 20-year (AMEX:TLT) $88.89 +0.77% ... to $87.50.

Keene Little : 2/23/2007 11:58:04 AM

I'm back. Who let the bulls out? They need to be slapped silly. We have more lows to make (I hope) before it's their turn again.

Jane Fox : 2/23/2007 11:53:03 AM

I'm thinking overnight lows may be resistance today. Link

Jane Fox : 2/23/2007 11:41:45 AM

BOSTON (MarketWatch) -- KB Home is under criminal investigation by the U.S. Attorney's Office in Los Angeles over so-called options backdating that triggered the resignation of the home builder's longtime chief executive, Bloomberg reported Friday, citing people familiar with the matter.

In a regulatory filing last month, KB Home (KBH) said the Securities and Exchange Commission was formally investigating its stock-option granting practices.

Backdating involves granting options to an executive or company insider on an advantageous date when a stock's price is low, in order to maximize the potential profit. Regulators have cracked down on the practice, and many companies are under investigation.

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2007 11:36:33 AM

Berkshire defends PetroChina investment

Reuters Story Link

Keene Little : 2/23/2007 11:34:09 AM

I've got to step away for about 20 minutes. Keep a lid on this thing until I get back.

Jane Fox : 2/23/2007 11:30:57 AM

I see ES's and YM's consolidation at daily lows as new lows are in our future. Link

Keene Little : 2/23/2007 11:28:40 AM

So far the little bounces look corrective and I don't see enough in the way of bullish divergences to get me thinking long. If the DOW drops a little further it should be able to tag its uptrend line near 12600.

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2007 11:22:58 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 2/23/2007 11:17:36 AM

Heads up for gold traders. This morning's high is near strong Fib resistance at 692.40 (two equal legs up from October and 62% retracement of last year's decline). It's also at the top of a parallel up-channel. This might be completing a bear flag bounce from October in which case gold will be due another big leg down towards $500. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2007 11:03:51 AM

11:00 Market Watch at this Link

Keene Little : 2/23/2007 11:01:57 AM

The choppy little decline in the DOW is forming a small descending wedge. It gives me the impression it's forming a bottom near here. It might not make it down to its uptrend line. Use a downtrend line from yesterday's close and use that to chase your stop down if you're short. The next bounce could take the DOW back into positive territory.

Jane Fox : 2/23/2007 11:00:34 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - Gold futures surged to a fresh seven-month high on Friday, as rising crude-oil prices and the falling dollar boosted demand for the precious metal.

Gold for April delivery broke through $690 an ounce, the contract's highest level since mid-July. Gold futures were last up $8 at $691 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange after rising to as high as $691.90.

"With the commodity volatility that we've seen this week, especially in energy and precious metals, no one is going to want to be short heading into a weekend with potentially large geopolitical issues yet to be resolved," said Neal Ryan, director of economic research at Blanchard.

Keene Little : 2/23/2007 10:56:51 AM

The pattern in the techs, from an EW perspective, leaves me with a very low confidence level in the count. This happens a lot with the techs and I'm not sure why. I have my theories about it but it doesn't matter. So the roadmap possibilities are not nearly as clear to me as they are for the DOW and SPX. Therefore take with a grain of salt this roadmap update. Bottom line for me is that it looks like it needs to press higher after a pullback and therefore I'd say the bullish count is my preferred count. Link

The daily chart, with that spinning top doji at a double top, followed by today's red candle (so far) is rather enticing for a bear. Follow through is the key though and unfortunately for the bears it takes a move all the way back down through 1763 to prove they're on the right side. A break of its uptrend line near 1800 would be a heads up. Until that happens this index is chop city.

Jane Fox : 2/23/2007 10:55:59 AM

US $ is taking a nose dive, which is good for my long GLD position.

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2007 10:51:25 AM

BIX 407.11 -1.57% ... testing MONTHLY 38.2% retracement here.

Jane Fox : 2/23/2007 10:44:31 AM

Markets are not falling out of bed like the internals suggest they should. You mean the markets are doing what I think they should do? How dare they!!! Anyway if trading short is the only side to be on.

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2007 10:42:34 AM

BIX testing previously broken to the upside downward trend right here.

Jane Fox : 2/23/2007 10:42:00 AM

TICKS -800 Now we have it all in sync.

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2007 10:41:53 AM

RKH $164.20 -0.92%

BIX.X 408.41 -1.25% ...

Jane Fox : 2/23/2007 10:39:03 AM

These are the charts I use for a longer term look at Gold and why I am long GLD. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2007 10:36:30 AM

"Should have" some banking bulls that are VERY, VERY, VERY profitable taking some profits.

Jane Fox : 2/23/2007 10:36:14 AM

TICKS making new daily highs. I guess you can't have it all.

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2007 10:35:48 AM

HSBC Holdings (HBC) alert! $88.76 -0.56% ... probes its "subprime" lows.

Keene Little : 2/23/2007 10:35:20 AM

Slight change to the SPX chart I just posted--I changed the downside projection for the bearish count to something that I think would be more realistic (not quite as far down in its initial drop and then a 2nd wave bounce into the March 9 turn window). Link

Jane Fox : 2/23/2007 10:34:03 AM

Now we are getting some direction. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2007 10:32:13 AM

Target correction alert! Target on the RKH short should be $162.05 ... not $163.05. I "fat fingered" 3 instead of 2.

Jane Fox : 2/23/2007 10:30:59 AM

AD line at -708 and AD volume falling give the bears the edge but now we need the VIX on board making new daily highs.

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2007 10:30:36 AM

RKH $165.58 -0.69% ... WEEKLY Pivot at $165.35.

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2007 10:30:06 AM

BIX.X 409.50 -0.99% ... WEEKLY Pivot right here.

Jane Fox : 2/23/2007 10:30:04 AM

ES is now testing its PDL and finding support.

Keene Little : 2/23/2007 10:28:20 AM

No significant change to the SPX roadmap--the decline so far looks corrective and that has me thinking we might not be done with the rally yet. That's still an early call and a lot will be dependent on how the DOW does around its uptrend line (assuming it gets there). For the bullish count I would expect to see SPX find support at or above 1445 and then head higher into March (there's an important Fib turn date on March 9 for the DOW). Link

If the DOW breaks below 12600 then the SPX will probably head for its uptrend line near 1440. A break below that would have both the DOW and SPX confirming the top is in. It takes a break below SPX 1431, its mid-February low, to confirm it's over for SPX.

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2007 10:20:28 AM

Dreyfus High Yield (DHF) $4.33 (unch)

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2007 10:19:56 AM

PHF $10.20 (unch)

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2007 10:19:35 AM

TYX.X down 4.9 bp at 4.781%

TNX.X down 4.8 bp at 4.682%

FVX.X down 5.3 bp at 4.673%

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2007 10:15:51 AM

Swing trade short 1/2 position alert in the Regional Bank HOLDRs (RKH) at the bid of $166.01. Stop goes $167.10, target $163.05.

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2007 10:11:22 AM

Novastar Financial (NFI) $8.54 -8.53% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2007 10:10:51 AM

HSBC Holdings (HBC) $88.95 -0.34% ...

Jane Fox : 2/23/2007 10:08:58 AM

VIX to new daily lows. No time to be short folks.

Jane Fox : 2/23/2007 10:08:38 AM

Just another day when the early morning bearishness is turned around by the bulls.

Jane Fox : 2/23/2007 10:08:06 AM

VIX is not testing daily lows so if short I would be exit stage left.

Keene Little : 2/23/2007 10:07:57 AM

This is the setup as I see it on the DOW--hopefully we'll see it continue down to its uptrend line from November where it should find support. If the pullback is just part of the larger ascending wedge then we should see a rally into March to a new high. But if the DOW has already made its high then we should see just a corrective bounce off that trend line and then a continuation lower. We'll just have to wait for price to tell us but I'd be careful with the short side if the DOW makes it down near 12600. Link

Jane Fox : 2/23/2007 10:07:41 AM

TICKs have been hovering above 0 and should be a concern if short.

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2007 10:07:27 AM

BKX.X 120.09 -0.42% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2007 10:07:04 AM

BIX.X 410.69 -0.70% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2007 10:06:37 AM

SPX.X 1,452.52 -0.26% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2007 10:06:18 AM

SPY $145.45 -0.28% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2007 10:05:57 AM

New Century Financial (NEW) alert! $16.08 -2.78% ... new 52-weeker.

Jeff Bailey : 2/23/2007 10:03:12 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 2/23/2007 9:53:02 AM

AD volume is making new daily lows but the AD line cannot stay under -500 so we flop around.

Jane Fox : 2/23/2007 9:47:57 AM

YM tags its PDL and finds support. There is a reason YM made lows here yesterday.

Jane Fox : 2/23/2007 9:47:09 AM

AD line is -460 now and if you must trade stay on the short side and use YM, your weakest market. Also please be aware of where the PDLs sit.

Keene Little : 2/23/2007 9:45:35 AM

If the DOW makes it down to the bottom of its ascending wedge (the uptrend line along the lows since November), currently near 12600, I'd be a buyer. Until then we're in the middle of space and it could just as easily rally 30-40 points and not mean a whole lot to the larger pattern.

Jane Fox : 2/23/2007 9:40:37 AM

This is no time to be trading and it may stay like this all day. But knowing when not to trade is just as important as knowing which side to trade.

Jane Fox : 2/23/2007 9:38:20 AM

US $ breaks overnight lows as Gold breaks its overnight highs. Crude also breaks its overnight highs.

Jane Fox : 2/23/2007 9:36:20 AM

TRIN is once again quite bullish at 0.77 and VIX opens within its PDR. No direction.

Jane Fox : 2/23/2007 9:35:31 AM

AD line is -337 but AD volume is hovering around 0 so no one had the ball this morning.

Jane Fox : 2/23/2007 9:27:42 AM

H&R Block Inc. (HRB) could come under selling pressure. The tax preparation company swung to a third-quarter loss on costs tied to its mortgage business.

Jane Fox : 2/23/2007 9:27:16 AM

Shares of Microsoft Corp. (MSFT)traded down 0.5% in pre-market electronic trade. On Thursday the software giant was ordered to pay more than $1.5 billion to Alcatel-Lucent (ALU) . A federal court in California ruled that the software giant infringed two Alcatel-Lucent patents in using the MP3 format for playing digital music on its Windows Media Player device.

Jane Fox : 2/23/2007 9:18:57 AM

Dallas Fed bank president Richard Fisher is slated to speak at 10:45 a.m. Eastern and San Francisco Fed bank president Janet Yellen will speak at 3:35 p.m. Both will address the U.S. economy. Fisher and Yellen are both non-voters. There's no economic data on the U.S. calendar.

Keene Little : 2/23/2007 9:15:09 AM

Equity futures dropped a little after the European markets opened but then recovered back to the flat line before pulling back some as we get close to our open. Slight negative bias but basically quiet. Yesterday's bounce looks like a correction which should turn back over and there was the setup for it to turn back over immediately this morning. Based on that I like the short side out of the gate but only if it starts down right away. Otherwise a continued choppy move higher is entirely possible.

Jane Fox : 2/23/2007 9:15:29 AM

Here is your updated daily chart of Gold: Link and one of the US $: Link

Jane Fox : 2/23/2007 9:06:53 AM

Yesterday I noticed that Gold and the US$ had lost their synchronization and surmised that once these two got back into sync Gold would rally and the $ fall. See sometimes technical analysis does work.. Link

Jane Fox : 2/23/2007 9:03:57 AM

Equity markets were neither bullish nor bearish overnight and I think we could be in for a long day today with very few opportunities for trading. Link

Jane Fox : 2/23/2007 8:54:24 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - Gold futures edged higher early Friday, as rising crude-oil prices and a weaker dollar underpinned demand for the precious metal.

Gold for April delivery was last up $1.50 at $684.50 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. On Thursday, gold closed down $1 at $683 an ounce, a day after rallying to a seven-month high, as the dollar's rise against major currencies pressured gold and traders tried to make sense of recent market volatility.

"We would use the present weakness to add to long positions in gold," said Dennis Gartman, publisher of the Gartman Letter.

Strength in the energy markets lifted gold prices early Friday. Crude-oil futures extended their rally in a continued response to data showing a far bigger-than-expected decline in heating fuel during last week's bitterly cold snap, reducing what have been unusually high stockpiles following a mild winter.

Jane Fox : 2/23/2007 8:53:38 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Crude-oil futures extended their rally early Friday in a continued response to data showing a far bigger-than-expected decline in heating fuel during last week's bitterly cold snap, reducing what have been unusually high stockpiles following a mild winter.

Tensions with Iran after it defied United Nations demands that it stop enriching uranium and fresh violence in Nigeria's oil-rich Niger Delta region supported gains.

Crude for April delivery was last up 14 cents at $61.09 a barrel, after rising to as high as $61.52 in early trade. On Thursday, the contract closed just below $61 after the data were released.

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