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Jeff Bailey : 2/28/2007 10:36:08 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/28/2007 10:26:14 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Keene Little : 2/28/2007 10:01:51 PM

Thursday's pivot tables (with new monthly values): Link and Link

OI Technical Staff : 2/28/2007 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 2/28/2007 5:54:35 PM

Recent SPY ... Put, Put "ka-ching" 30-minute interval chart with March Monthly Pivot retracement at this Link

Anything in that option montage ring a bell?

Jeff Bailey : 2/28/2007 5:42:28 PM

DIA December Review 30-minute interval chart at this Link ... from Swing trade put, to swing trade ka-put. BEARS want to see DIVERGENCE from that action in my opinion.

Jeff Bailey : 2/28/2007 5:32:00 PM

See DIA put on 12/01/06. MONTHLY Pivot that horrific day in bear history was $121.79.

Jeff Bailey : 2/28/2007 5:29:50 PM

Close to it anyway ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/28/2007 5:18:31 PM

Oh gosh... I've seen this before!

Jeff Bailey : 2/28/2007 5:13:58 PM

SPY goes out at $140.93 +1.02% ... MONTHLY Pivot Levels for March are ... 134.70, 137.81, Piv= 142.12, 145.23, 149.54.

Jeff Bailey : 2/28/2007 5:09:51 PM

Getting our MONTHLY Pivot Levels in a minute!

Jeff Bailey : 2/28/2007 5:07:54 PM

Follow up to SPY Option Montage

Yesterday's screen capture (see today's MM at bottom 11:04:02 thru 11:42:12 PM) Link

Now today's screen capture, where OI is updated for yesterday's (Tuesday's) trade. Link were TUESDAY's most actives?

What did OI do since?

What was TUESDAY's Up/DownTick bias?

What's the VIX doing? (yes, just measuring the difference between call buying/put selling and call selling/put buying).

Jeff Bailey : 2/28/2007 4:43:26 PM

CME, CBOT JUMP AFTER POSTING RECORD VOLUMES

Chicago Mercantile Exchange Holdings and CBOT Holdings say thy handled record trading volume yesterday as massive losses in equity markets made for a volatile derivatives market. CME shares rise 5.5%; BOT rises 4.7%.

Jeff Bailey : 2/28/2007 4:27:51 PM

Reminder: Mr. Paulson visits Japan, S. Korea, Beijing and Shanghai next week!

Jeff Bailey : 2/28/2007 4:26:46 PM

BUSH CALLED PAULSON FOR MARKET READ

DJ- Press Secretary Snow doesn't provide details of the consultation, which happened yesterday.. White House has no comment on market activity, but Snow notes, 'The international markets are as strong as anybody has ever seen them.'

Jeff Bailey : 2/28/2007 4:17:21 PM

Various Fed Fund futures contracts thru December at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/28/2007 4:03:51 PM

LOW GASOLINE STOCKS MEAN PUMP HIKES

DJ- EIA says U.S. retail gasoline prices may continue to rise over the next several weeks as the relative level of gasoline inventories is below the level of the last two years. February demand is poised to set a record for the month.

Jeff Bailey : 2/28/2007 3:56:15 PM

Steel Technologies (STTX) $29.32 +59.43% ... was halted for trade intra-day. Released last 1/2 hour.

Mitsui USA buying company for $30.00/share.

Jeff Bailey : 2/28/2007 3:54:58 PM

Mexico: December mining statistics

Silver output down 26.8% to 209,206 KG

Gold output up 36.9% to 4,085 KG

Copper output up 0.5% to 29,727 MT

Mining production down 0.3% on year.

Jeff Bailey : 2/28/2007 3:45:12 PM

Dow Dog 2007 (update) at this Link ... To the far right I added a P/L % column, where price of each components benchmarked to its 12/29/06 close.

Screen capture from 12/29/06 close at this Link which was sorted by Dividend Yield at 12/29/06 close.

Keene Little : 2/28/2007 3:31:26 PM

This sideways consolidation, after the bounce from this morning's low, leaves open the possibility that we're going to get another leg up to finish the A-B-C bounce. That would be wave-A up from yesterday's low (or this morning's low for NDX), a sideways triangle wave-B and then wave-C up. Look for equality between waves A and C in that case. But the potential is there for this to fall out of bed at any time and give us a 5th wave down so it remains risky for both sides.

Jeff Bailey : 2/28/2007 3:14:43 PM

SPX NH/NL 1:4 ... Daily ratio 20.0%, 5-day 76.5% and 10-day 87.8%

Jeff Bailey : 2/28/2007 3:13:09 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Note: It would take a closing reading of 90.0% for the NYSE 10-day NH/NL ratio to reverse lower into column of "O"

Jeff Bailey : 2/28/2007 3:02:08 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/28/2007 2:58:21 PM

Labranche (LAB) $8.72 (unch) ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/28/2007 2:57:19 PM

I bet there were some ex-floor brokers that enjoyed that.

Jeff Bailey : 2/28/2007 2:56:35 PM

Bugger hit my short target just before all heck broke loose at with the NYSE hybrid system.

Jeff Bailey : 2/28/2007 2:55:36 PM

RKH $159.72 +0.55% ... today's high ... $161.04.

Jeff Bailey : 2/28/2007 2:53:51 PM

CNBC guest ... excellent observation ... "in emerging markets, the BANKS are first to move and signal strength/weakness."

Makes so much sense, even here in the U.S. Who is closer to the bulk of economic activity, you name it, than a bank, or financial sector.

Jeff Bailey : 2/28/2007 2:42:59 PM

Nikkei 225 ($NIKK) action from Wednesday Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/28/2007 2:42:23 PM

Hang Seng's ($HSI) action from Wednesday Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/28/2007 2:23:47 PM

There too .... bond market digesting yesterday's jolting move.

Jeff Bailey : 2/28/2007 2:22:30 PM

iShares Lehman 20-year (AMEX:TLT) $90.22 -0.37% ... yesterday's high of 91.26 came darned close to initial profiled target of $91.50.

NO WAY did I think we get so close, so soon.

Jeff Bailey : 2/28/2007 2:20:07 PM

US Oil Fund (AMEX:USO) $51.19 +2.48% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/28/2007 2:19:34 PM

EIA's: Crude Oil # of Days Supply came out at 22.4. Up a fraction from prior week's 22.3.

I would STRONGLY suggest traders/investors use the EIA's data instead of mine.

I developed mine only so we could get an idea quicker.

Jeff Bailey : 2/28/2007 2:17:51 PM

30-year Treasury Yield ($TYX.X) ... the "riskiest" (due to length of maturity, thus uncertainty) up 4.5 bp at 4.675%.

Jeff Bailey : 2/28/2007 2:16:33 PM

Dreyfus High Yield (DHF) $4.34 (unch) ... SEC Yield (declared monthly dividend of $0.0285 on Monday) at 7.88%.

Jeff Bailey : 2/28/2007 2:14:38 PM

PHF $10.00 -1.28% ... SEC Yield 9.00% on the button.

Jeff Bailey : 2/28/2007 2:12:30 PM

VIX.X 15.48 -15.45% ... a bit surprised it didn't at least come back to DAILY S1/MONTHLY R2 correlatiion.

Suggest to me that there's still some "defense" being played.

Jeff Bailey : 2/28/2007 2:10:00 PM

BIX.X 397.55 +0.61% ... they love him I tell you.

Jeff Bailey : 2/28/2007 2:09:31 PM

Sure has the look, based on observation that market participants are digesting yesterday's action. No big bets being made.

And ohhhh how Dr. Bernanke provides a calming note.

Jeff Bailey : 2/28/2007 2:08:07 PM

NASDAQ a/d 1,768:1,229

Jeff Bailey : 2/28/2007 2:07:51 PM

NYSE a/d 2,175:1,086

Jeff Bailey : 2/28/2007 2:06:59 PM

02:05 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/28/2007 2:04:00 PM

SPY $141.17 +1.19% ... looks like I missed about 3 cents of action.

Keene Little : 2/28/2007 1:41:17 PM

We're still bear flagging but the big question in my mind is where the flag will end. Just keep in mind, if you're trying the long side on this bounce, that we're now in an environment where surprises will likely be to the down side.

Jane Fox : 2/28/2007 12:53:22 PM

Not a time to be short for sure.

Jane Fox : 2/28/2007 12:53:11 PM

AD line is +1026.

Jane Fox : 2/28/2007 12:48:32 PM

BOSTON (MarketWatch) -- The Investment Company Institute said Wednesday that total exchange-traded fund assets in the U.S. climbed to $431 billion at the end of January from $422.55 billion the previous month. Over the past 12 months, ETF assets increased $111.36 billion, or 34.8%, according to the main trade group for the mutual-fund business. During January, the value of all ETF shares issued exceeded that of shares redeemed by $2.99 billion, the report said. There were 407 ETFs listed on domestic exchanges at the end of the month, according to ICI.

Jane Fox : 2/28/2007 12:33:45 PM

Here is the study. Link

Jane Fox : 2/28/2007 12:28:52 PM

The study's authors derive a complex model that predicts how often declines of Tuesday's magnitude -- 3.3% in the Dow industrials -- will occur. Over many years, according to that theory, they should occur an average of every five to six months.

From the perspective of this study, therefore, what's surprising is not that Tuesday's drop happened but that it's been a long time since we last experienced a decline this large. The previous time that the Dow lost in percentage terms as much as it did on Tuesday was March 24, 2003, nearly four years ago.

If the last four years had adhered to the historical pattern, we should have experienced nine days with drops as big as Tuesday's

Jane Fox : 2/28/2007 12:28:26 PM

ANNANDALE, Va. (MarketWatch) -- What if Tuesday's drop in the stock market happened for no reason other than that it was overdue?

Our minds recoil from such a possibility, since it strips Tuesday's 416-point drop in the Dow Jones Industrial Average of any particular meaning. In fact, it is our psychological need for ascribing meaning to momentous events that accounts for how much ink has been spilled trying to explain what happened.

But, according to a mathematical theory developed by an MIT economist and several physicists at Boston University, drops of Tuesday's magnitude are entirely regular and periodic.

Their study, published several years ago in the prestigious scientific journal Nature, reports that large daily fluctuations in the stock market occur, on average, at very predictable frequencies. Instead of seeing these fluctuations as abnormal, the academics' theory suggests we see them as inherent features of the stock market's volatility.

Keene Little : 2/28/2007 12:25:21 PM

ES had tagged its level where it had equality in an A-B-C bounce off yesterday's low (at 1418.25) but cash came up a little short, as did the DOW. Now SPX has broken the uptrend line from yesterday and looks to be into either the next leg down or it might be just another leg within a building sideways consolidation (too early to tell which). Stay cautious about the long side. Link

Jane Fox : 2/28/2007 12:24:36 PM

I think a return to at least the green dotted 200EMA is doable. This is why I said a shorter term long. Sounds like a oxymoron doesn't it?

Jane Fox : 2/28/2007 12:21:09 PM

This may be a good place to try a shorter term long position in INTC. Link

Keene Little : 2/28/2007 12:06:54 PM

On any other day a 100 point drop from the day's high would be a big deal. Now it looks like just a small part of a correction. I'm getting that sideways feeling for the rest of the day (or two).

Jeff Bailey : 2/28/2007 11:41:58 AM

SPY $141.20 +1.21% ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/28/2007 11:40:31 AM

I have to run ... will return in about 90-minutes to an hour.

Keene Little : 2/28/2007 11:27:59 AM

In a move that has two equal legs up from yesterday's low, the 2nd leg (today's rally) should be a 5-wave move for wave-c. In that 5-wave move it looks like we're currently consolidating in the 4th wave and we're due another push higher. Watch the new high for bearish divergences as an opportunity to get short. We might see the upside targets I gave earlier (10:35) although the bounce may not make it that high. Just understand the risks of trading today are higher than usual.

Jeff Bailey : 2/28/2007 11:24:06 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/28/2007 11:18:02 AM

Watching VIX.X 14.70 and that overlap at DAILY S1/MONTHLY R2

Jeff Bailey : 2/28/2007 11:06:33 AM

CRB Index 310.52 -0.87% ...

Jane Fox : 2/28/2007 11:04:58 AM

* NYSE advancers outnumber decliners 20 to 11

* Nasdaq advancers outnumber decliners 16 to 12

Jeff Bailey : 2/28/2007 11:02:25 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 2/28/2007 10:56:14 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Fed chief Ben Bernanke said there was no single trigger for the stock market correction and expressed confidence in his forecast of moderate growth in coming months. Bernanke said that nothing has happened to alter his forecast for moderate growth. He said the economy could even strengthen if the housing market hits bottom and the inventory correction eases in the factory sector. Bernanke said the market functioned well during the steep decline on Tuesday but said the central bank was watching activity carefully. Bernanke said worries about the subprime mortgage market was one factor in the unease in financial markets, but said he did not think the trouble in the sector was having a significant impact on the U.S. economy.

Jeff Bailey : 2/28/2007 10:52:57 AM

EIA's Days Supply Spreadsheet should be updated later today at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/28/2007 10:50:22 AM

US Oil Fund (AMEX:USO) $50.42 +0.94% ... priced to perfection.

Jeff Bailey : 2/28/2007 10:49:07 AM

EIA: Weekly Pct. Utilization of Refinery Operable Capacity rose to 85.98% from prior week's 85.22%.

Jeff Bailey : 2/28/2007 10:47:48 AM

My Days of Supply for Crude Oil rose to 21.91 from 21.75.

Jeff Bailey : 2/28/2007 10:45:54 AM

EIA: Weekly Gross Inputs Into Refineries up 132,000 barrels per day.

Jeff Bailey : 2/28/2007 10:43:47 AM

EIA: SPR Stockpiles unchanged at 688.6 million barrels.

Jeff Bailey : 2/28/2007 10:42:48 AM

EIA: Weekly Heating Oil Stockpiles down 1.8 million barrels.

Jeff Bailey : 2/28/2007 10:41:46 AM

EIA: Weekly Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel Stockpiles up 1.07 million barrels.

Jane Fox : 2/28/2007 10:41:41 AM

Bernanke: Subprime market trouble not impacting economy

Bernanke says no liquidity problem in financial markets

Bernanke says economy may strengthen in mid-year

Jeff Bailey : 2/28/2007 10:40:34 AM

EIA: Weekly ULS Diesel Stockpiles down 704,000 barrels.

Jeff Bailey : 2/28/2007 10:39:40 AM

EIA: Weekly Total Distillate Stockpiles down 3.7 million barrels.

Jeff Bailey : 2/28/2007 10:38:10 AM

EIA: Weekly Reformulated Gasoline Stockpiles down 42,000 barrels.

Jeff Bailey : 2/28/2007 10:37:21 AM

EIA: Weekly Total Gasoline Stockpiles down 1.9 million barrels.

Jane Fox : 2/28/2007 10:37:14 AM

Bernanke says financial markets seem to be working well

Jane Fox : 2/28/2007 10:37:06 AM

Bernanke says no single trigger to stock decline

Jeff Bailey : 2/28/2007 10:36:46 AM

EIA: Weekly Crude Oil Stockpiles up 1.4 million barrels.

Jane Fox : 2/28/2007 10:36:41 AM

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- The Energy Department said distillates supplies fell for a fifth week, down 3.8 million barrels to 124.5 million for the week ended Feb. 23. Motor gasoline stocks fell for a third week, down 1.9 million barrels to total 220.2 million barrels. But crude supplies rose by 1.4 million barrels to 329 million. Following the news, April crude was down 51 cents to $60.95 a barrel after reaching a low of $60.55 before the data. March reformulated gasoline rose 0.39 cent to $1.82 a gallon while March heating oil traded at $1.767 a gallon, down 1.23 cents.

Keene Little : 2/28/2007 10:35:40 AM

If the bounce off yesterday's low gets two equal legs up then watch for resistance near DOW 12410 (YM 12391) and SPX 1417.29 (ES 1418.25). First it has to get above yesterday afternoon's bounce high at DOW 12312 and SPX 1410.47 (which it just did with that little poke higher but now pulling back again).

Jane Fox : 2/28/2007 10:34:43 AM

If you want to trade I would stay on the long side and use the daily open as your stop. That is to say put your stop under the daily open. Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/28/2007 10:26:30 AM

S&P 500 Index (SPX.X) 1,405.95 +0.49% Link ...

SPY $140.97 +1.05% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 2/28/2007 10:23:51 AM

Fed's Bernanke: Seeing "Calm Before Storm" On Deficit

DJ- Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said Wednesday that while the U.S. budget deficit may "stabilize or moderate further" in the next few years, the long-term picture is worrisome due to steeply climbing entitlement obligations.

"Unfortunately, we are experiencing what seems likely to be the calm before the storm," Bernanke said in prepared testimony to the House Budget Committee.

"In particular, spending on entitlement programs will begin to climb quickly during the next decade," he said.

Bernanke's comments mirrored those he made last month to the Senate Budget Committee, when he said that unless "early and meaningful" action is taken on entitlement programs like Social Security and Medicare, "the U.S. economy could be seriously weakened, with future generations bearing much of the cost."

Bernanke on Wednesday cited Congressional Budget Office estimates showing that rising entitlement spending could push the deficit to 9% of gross domestic product by 2030, more than four times its share of the economy in 2006.

Bernanke noted that economic growth could mitigate those budget pressures, and that fiscal policies supportive of growth "would be beneficial."

"Unfortunately, economic growth alone is unlikely to solve the nation's impending fiscal problems," he said, adding that dealing with the long-term budget problems will require "persistence and a willingness to make difficult choices."

Bernanke's remarks didn't address the near-term economic and monetary policy outlook, though he will take questions from the House panel.

Earlier this week, Bernanke's predecessor, Alan Greenspan, caused a stir when he told a conference in Hong Kong, "yes, it is possible we can get a recession in the latter months of 2007" though he added "most forecasters are not making that judgment and indeed are projecting forward into 2008...with some slowdown."

Greenspan's remarks, coupled with a 7.8% slump in durable goods orders and steep global equity sell-off Tuesday reignited concerns over the U.S. economy and boosted investor odds that Bernanke and the Fed will cut rates by midyear.

The Fed has kept the federal funds rate unchanged at 5.25% since last summer, a stretch covering five Federal Open Market Committee meetings.

Keene Little : 2/28/2007 10:13:20 AM

Jane, your gold chart shows the bearish divergences that were developing at the new recent highs. Then the high volume spike on the selling. That 50-ema should crack in short order (wink).

Jeff Bailey : 2/28/2007 10:10:53 AM

MBA's Weekly Application Survey at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 2/28/2007 10:07:48 AM

U.S. January Home Sales Drop To Lowest Since '03

DJ- New-home sales plunged in January, falling to the lowest level in nearly four years after back-to-back increases.

Sales of single-family homes decreased 16.6% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 937,000, the Commerce Department said Wednesday. It was the weakest sales rate since 936,000 in February 2003.

December sales rose 9.1% to an annual rate to 1.123 million, a figure revised up from an earlier estimated 1.120 million. November demand rose 6.4%.

The median estimate of 21 economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires and CNBC was for sales to fall by 3.6% to a 1.080 million annual rate in January.

Commerce's report Wednesday showed new-home sales fell 18.7% in the Northeast, 8.1% in the Midwest, 9.7% in the South and 37.4% in the West.

The average price of a home increased to $313,000, up from $298,600 in December. The median price was $239,800, higher than the $239,400 in December.

There were an estimated 536,000 homes for sale at the end of January, representing a 6.8 months' supply at the current sales rate. In December, an estimated 537,000 were for sale, a 5.7 months' inventory.

An estimated 70,000 homes were actually sold in January, down from 78,000 in December, based on figures not seasonally adjusted.

Jeff Bailey : 2/28/2007 10:02:53 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 2/28/2007 10:01:49 AM

AD line is now -374 and AD volume is under 0. I think the best trade right now is on the sidelines.

Jane Fox : 2/28/2007 9:59:39 AM

Here is another reason I am bullish on Gold for the longerterm. These three charts are in sync. Link

Jane Fox : 2/28/2007 9:58:21 AM

You probably already know I am a goldbug and here is why. I will be long gold as long as it stays above its 50EMA and in this support zone. Link

Keene Little : 2/28/2007 9:56:41 AM

We just had YM swing through 100 points in less than 10 minutes, which on my 5-min chart looks like a tiny little correction. Now it's already back up 70 off the last low as I type. Needless to say the market is a bit dangerous right now.

Jane Fox : 2/28/2007 9:50:28 AM

Here is how the markets are trading in relation to their PDLs. Link

Keene Little : 2/28/2007 9:53:30 AM

Gold is trading very well technically. Here's an update to the daily chart I showed at the end of last week when I said it was nearing the point where you'll want to try a short play. The bounce from October would have two equal legs up at 692.70, a 62% retracement of the 2006 decline is at 692.40 and the top of the parallel up-channel from October is near 692. The high was 692.50. It was a very nice setup and since then gold has dropped. Link

The short play should be a position play as the EW pattern calls for a decline to about 500. Any rally back above 693 would negate that bearish view so that's where your stop should be if short gold. I expect the decline to take us into late spring/early summer (coinciding with the stock market actually). This is counter to most of what I read from gold bugs who remain very bullish the shiny metal. Maybe that's another reason it will drop.

Jane Fox : 2/28/2007 9:47:10 AM

ER is testing its PDL.

Jane Fox : 2/28/2007 9:37:50 AM

TRIN 0.56 and VIX 17.02.

Jane Fox : 2/28/2007 9:38:21 AM

AD line is +494 and AD volume above 0. So far so good.

Jane Fox : 2/28/2007 9:32:19 AM

Subscriber Michel sent me a spreadsheet of the TRIN valves back to 1940. I have no idea where he got this data from but thank you very much Michel. Here are the values greater than yesterday's TRIN

9/26/1955 30.76
8/2/1943 30.02
9/9/1946 25.38
5/13/1940 18.88
9/3/1946 18.1

Jane Fox : 2/28/2007 9:28:57 AM

Although the volume on the SPX was not that much above normal it certainly was on the futures. Remember I was saying I was looking for a close below the 50EMA, I never in a million years thought ES would close almost at its 100EMA. That 5% correction was almost completed in one day. Link

Jane Fox : 2/28/2007 9:23:05 AM

The only safe haven yesterday was bonds. Link

Jane Fox : 2/28/2007 9:17:58 AM

Here is a chart of the TRIN. I tried to go back as far as I could but I could only get data back to 1999. I have never in my 8 years of trading ever seen a TRIN at 16.02. Link

Keene Little : 2/28/2007 9:16:49 AM

Because of yesterday's huge move the "small" bounce in the late afternoon should mark the top of the trading range as we consolidate for a little bit before heading lower again (as part of the stair-stepping lower that I showed in my 60-min chart posted at 1:54 AM). That's 21 SPX and 230 DOW points and would be a major move on any other day. If we are due a 4th wave correction before heading lower then expect lots of chop and whipsaw.

Jane Fox : 2/28/2007 9:09:15 AM

Equity markets overnight did recover a bit but are still vulnerable to the downside. Link There are some constants in the market; things like a market will always revert back to its mean and another is markets need to correct and the longer a market moves in any direction without a correction the more severe that correction will be when (not if) it happens. I was not surprised about the correction we were seeing yesterday morning but the later day correction was a mouth dropper.

Jane Fox : 2/28/2007 9:04:19 AM

Dateline WSJ - Stocks are pointing to a rebound Wednesday morning from a major selloff in the previous session, as Wall Street breathed a little easier, helped by in-line data on U.S. economic growth and signs of stabilization in other markets around the world.

About 45 minutes before the start of trading, Dow Jones Industrial Average futures had risen 73 to 12253. The S&P 500 futures added 10 to 1405.3, and Nasdaq 100 futures gained 14 to 1764.5. Changes in futures do not always accurately predict early market moves after the opening bell.

U.S. stock markets suffered their worst one-day plunge on Tuesday since Sept. 17, 2001, the first day of stock trading after the Sept. 11 terror attacks. The broad selloff was encouraged by weakness on the Shanghai market, disappointing economic data, weakness in the subprime lending market and rising uncertainty about Iran and Afghanistan. The Dow industrials -- briefly down as much as 546.20 points after a nearly instantaneous drop of about 200 points -- ended the day down 416.02, or 3.3%, to 12216.24, its seventh-largest point decline ever. The Nasdaq Composite Index dropped 96.65, or 3.9%, to 2407.87, and the S&P 500 lost 50.33, or 3.9%, to 1399.04.

Jane Fox : 2/28/2007 9:01:51 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The U.S. economy's now grown at a rate of less than 3% for three quarters in a row, government data show, after a significant downward revision to fourth-quarter estimates.

The economy grew at a real annual rate of 2.2% in the three months of 2006, not at the 3.5% rate reported last month, the Commerce Department said Wednesday.

Real gross domestic product has grown 3.1% over the past four quarters and grew 3.3% in 2006 compared with all of 2005. The economy grew 2% in the third quarter.

Over time, growth below the economy's potential of about 3% should reduce capacity restraints in the economy that could fuel inflation. The U.S. unemployment rate has moved marginally higher, but it's still relatively low at 4.6%.

Industrial capacity utilization rates have fallen as the factory sector slowed.

Jeff Bailey : 2/28/2007 3:16:27 AM

Correction to Monday's Market Wrap ... Advanced Micro Devices announced that it was purchasing ATI Corp. (NASDAQ:ATYT) on July 24, 2006.

Not Allegheny Tech (NYSE:ATI)

The deal was consumated at the close of trading on October 24, 2006.

Jeff Bailey : 2/28/2007 3:04:05 AM

I will be away from the MM tomorrow (Wednesday morning). A router "blew up" this evening and I need to go purchase a new one in the morning.

Jeff Bailey : 2/28/2007 3:02:29 AM

YM up 75 at 12,256 ... 10-minute interval chart with tomorrow's daily pivot retracement (I only use regular session highs and lows) at this Link

Overnight/extended session low/high so far has been 12,163/12,297

Market Monitor Archives