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Keene Little : 3/2/2007 12:25:00 AM

Friday's pivot tables: Link and Link

OI Technical Staff : 3/1/2007 9:59:59 PM

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Jeff Bailey : 3/1/2007 7:01:36 PM

additional Global Economic Reports at this Link

also see today's 12:20:52

Jeff Bailey : 3/1/2007 6:54:05 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/1/2007 6:41:59 PM

Will see if the "tail" of this inchworm can dig in.

Jeff Bailey : 3/1/2007 6:41:28 PM

SPX's NH/NL finished 2:12. Same thing ... most since 08/07/06 thru 08/11/07 when NL's ran between 11 and 14.

Jeff Bailey : 3/1/2007 6:35:48 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Note: Today's 111 new lows at the NASDAQ are most since mid-August.

Jeff Bailey : 3/1/2007 5:04:56 PM

April Crude Oil (cl07j) settled up $0.21, or +0.34% at $62.00.

Winning streak reaches 7 sessions!

Jeff Bailey : 3/1/2007 5:02:29 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/1/2007 4:55:04 PM

U.S. Domostic Vehicle Sales Total 12.6 million. Forecast was 12.5M. Prior 12.7M

Jeff Bailey : 3/1/2007 4:53:17 PM

PetroChina (PTR) $113.30 -2.63% ... sure looks, based on currency action, that it isn't all tied to oil prices.

Jeff Bailey : 3/1/2007 4:49:42 PM

As noted a couple of sessions ago (02/22/07 03:11:54) ... yen got whacked as gold/silver rose. Just the opposite last couple of sessions.

Jeff Bailey : 3/1/2007 4:43:29 PM

Sure looks like its yen/gold and silver dynamic.

Jeff Bailey : 3/1/2007 4:41:42 PM

Somebody "chunked" some silver just before 01:00

Jeff Bailey : 3/1/2007 4:32:13 PM

What a day in the currency markets! Link

Keene Little : 3/1/2007 4:20:31 PM

It's also possible we'll rally a little higher early tomorow to finish wave-a and then start a choppy pullback in wave-b that takes into Monday. Then a sharp rally on Tuesday to finish the a-b-c correction to this week's decline. At any rate, it's too early to be thinking short.

Jeff Bailey : 3/1/2007 4:19:52 PM

American Intl. Group (AIG) ... Earnings Press Release Link

Consensus was for EPS of $1.49 on Revenue of $28.85 B.

Jeff Bailey : 3/1/2007 4:18:26 PM

YM 12,254

Jeff Bailey : 3/1/2007 4:17:56 PM

American Intl. Group (AIG) $67.41 +0.44% ... $68.47 extended on headline numbers.

Jeff Bailey : 3/1/2007 4:16:48 PM

Dell (DELL) ... Earnings Press Release at this Link

Consensus was for EPS of $0.29 on Revenue of $14.88 B.

Jane Fox : 3/1/2007 4:15:44 PM

Economic Reports

10:00am. End-Feb Reuters/U Of Mich Consumer Sentiment Index. Expected: 93.3. Previous: 93.3.

Keene Little : 3/1/2007 4:15:26 PM

After this morning's spike up and then mostly sideways for the rest of the day, it's looking like a wave-a up followed by a sideways consolidation for wave-b, which could continue sideways through most of tomorrow. But it should be followed by another strong leg up in wave-c. Once that a-b-c rally finishes, possibly as early as tomorrow afternoon, we could be ready for the next big drop. Keep your powder dry for that setup.

Jane Fox : 3/1/2007 4:15:08 PM

Dell posts net income of $673 million on revenue of $14.4 billion. Michael Dell says he is "disappointed" with the results.

Jeff Bailey : 3/1/2007 4:15:04 PM

Dell Computer (DELL) $23.01 +0.70% ... lower at $22.63 on headline numbers.

Jeff Bailey : 3/1/2007 4:09:38 PM

Bershire Hathaway's Buffett: ... 2006 Net Worth Rose Record $16.9 Billion.

Non-Insurance Earnings Rose 38% in 2006

Future acquisitions must be elephants, not mice.

Jeff Bailey : 3/1/2007 3:58:32 PM

US February Auto Sales Said 16.5-16.9 Mln. Rate

Jane Fox : 3/1/2007 3:26:41 PM

AD volume and line plunging.

Jane Fox : 3/1/2007 3:26:12 PM

TIcks -800

Jane Fox : 3/1/2007 3:25:40 PM

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) - General Motors Corp. lightened the mood in Detroit on Thursday, defying analysts' gloomy predictions with a surprise increase in February U.S. auto sales built on strong retail demand for its new and improved line of trucks and SUVs.

Keene Little : 3/1/2007 3:17:49 PM

Excuse my silence today. Today's choppy climb looks like we're into wave-a of an a-b-c bounce into next week. Trading will likely remain difficult, especially in a b-wave pullback which we'll probably get tomorrow.

Since it's looking like wave-1 down is finished as of this morning's low I'm now working on price projections for SPX to show moves along the same lines as what I did for NDX. It's going to look scary but it's realistic to think this is not going to be a good year for bulls. In fact the scary and sad thing is that it's not going to be good for our economy.

Jeff Bailey : 3/1/2007 3:15:58 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/1/2007 3:03:01 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/1/2007 2:59:04 PM

Toyota Motor (TM) $131.55 -1.53% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/1/2007 2:57:40 PM

Toyota February US Sales Up 12%, Helped By Prius

Jeff Bailey : 3/1/2007 2:23:55 PM

BTK.X -1.18%, HUI.X -1.08%, NWX.X -1.05% sector losers.

Jeff Bailey : 3/1/2007 2:22:50 PM

DJUSHB +1.24%, HMO.X +1.10% and OIH +1.07% ... sector winners.

Keene Little : 3/1/2007 2:14:17 PM

I figured while I'm at, what the heck, I'll show a weekly chart of NDX and how that EW projection would look relative to the price action since 2000. I don't show the ultimate downside projection since it's too scary. Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/1/2007 2:07:01 PM

I should disclose that I currently hold bullish position in NEW.

Jeff Bailey : 3/1/2007 2:05:51 PM

SPY $141.22

Jeff Bailey : 3/1/2007 2:05:41 PM

VIX alert! 15.73 and DAILY Pivot

Jane Fox : 3/1/2007 2:05:26 PM

VIX to new daily lows and AD Volume to new daily highs albeit still under 0 but the bulls don't seem to care.

Jeff Bailey : 3/1/2007 2:04:54 PM

Buy, run, write alert ... for 100 shares of New Century Financial (NEW) at the offer of $16.26, stop $14.80 to begin.

Jeff Bailey : 3/1/2007 1:58:41 PM

General Motors' February Sales Up 3.4%

Reuters brief Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/1/2007 1:57:22 PM

Ford, DaimlerChrysler U.S. Sales Fall ... AP Story Link

F $7.89 -0.25% ...

DCX $67.43 -0.94% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/1/2007 1:51:48 PM

GM releasing sales figures ...

Keene Little : 3/1/2007 1:47:54 PM

This daily NDX chart shows how the more bearish scenario that I laid out on the shorter term charts would look in relation to the rally from July. This would obviously be more than just a "correction" to the bull market rally. Instead it's the kick off to the next bear market leg down. Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/1/2007 1:19:04 PM

01:05 Internals at this Link

Jane Fox : 3/1/2007 1:18:20 PM

I suspect this market will test its 50EMA before heading lower, if it heads lower. That 50EMA was just too much support for the last 6 months for SPX to not at least touch it once more. Link

Keene Little : 3/1/2007 1:15:03 PM

Referencing my earlier comment about a correction to this week's decline happening much faster than a mid March high, I'm going to lay out a scenario that says just the opposite--we could see a major low by mid March, one everyone will be screaming to buy since the market "correction" finally happened. I'm going to show how I'm using Fib retracements and projections (in time and price) to make my guesstimates for where this market is headed (and not just pulling these moves out of thin air).

I'll use the NDX only because I started looking at it first for this scenario but all the indices line up the same way. Starting with the 30-min chart I show Fib relationships off the move down (wave-1) in both time and price. I also show the uptrend line from November 3rd. Link

A 2nd wave bounce typically retraces 50%-62% in price in about 62% of the time that it took for wave-1. Those retracements and time projections are shown on the chart and I drew in the price projection for wave-2 to top out around 1794 (between the 50% and 62% retracements and at a retest of the broken trend line). This is on the morning of March 6th, next Tuesday (where wave-2 = 62% of wave-1 in time). From there we would start wave-3 down. You'll want to be short for that ride down.

Stepping out a bit, the 60-min chart shows a projection for wave-3 down, typically 162% of wave-1 in price and time. That puts it just under 1579 on March 13th, Wednesday of opex week. Link

Then stepping out a little further, this 120-min chart shows the projections for the 4th wave (typically retraces between 21.4% and 38% of wave-3 in less time than it took for wave-1 to complete). This is also where I like to use parallel channels--using the trend line between waves 1 and 3 and attaching a parallel to wave-2. Then watch for the bounce in wave-4 to work its way up/over to the trend line. Link

Then wave-5 down will be typically 62%-100% of wave-1 in price and time so that projects down to a low near 1518 on March 23rd. I also like to use the mid line of the channel since very often the 5th wave will bottom on it. Then we'll get a larger degree wave-(2) bounce and we start the whole process over again but on a larger time frame. Now we'll watch to see how this all unfolds and see if Mr. Elliott rocks.

Jeff Bailey : 3/1/2007 1:07:11 PM

01:05 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/1/2007 12:40:25 PM

Paulson:

DJ- Growing mistrust of international trade and support for new trade barriers threaten to undermine the greatest strengths of the U.S. economy, U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said Thursday.

Though recent data indicate consumer demand and manufacturing activity slowed in December and January, the economy, supported by higher wages and employment, remains "healthy," Paulson said in a prepared text of a speech to be delivered before the Economic Club of Washington. He credited economic dynamism and innovation fostered by competition and free trade for the strength of the U.S. economy. American competitiveness and rising living standards will suffer, if advocates for new trade barriers are successful, Paulson said.

"We must redouble our efforts to demonstrate the benefits of trade to our standard of living and make clear that retreating to economic isolationism would mean fewer jobs, and lower standards of living in the U.S. and for hundreds of millions of people around the world," Paulson said. Growing income inequality is a real problem in the U.S. and trade and globalization are often cited as the cause, Paulson said. Technological innovation is driving this trend, not trade, he added. Innovation and technology have made it possible for the U.S. manufacturing sector to increase its real output seven times since 1950 with roughly the same number of workers, he said.

"There is no question that technology has made many jobs obsolete, even as it has brought efficiency and convenience to our daily lives," Paulson said. "But we don't hear many voices calling for an end to the Internet."

Paulson said President George W. Bush is backing an overhaul of a federal program to help workers who lose their jobs because of trade agreements.

"There seems to be a growing consensus among Democrats and Republicans that Trade Adjustment Assistance, the way it is structured today, does not serve people as well as it could and does not provide the right incentives," Paulson said. "These resources can be better used in a program that has more flexibility, more options for training, and more personal ownership."

Paulson said people calling for protection from foreign competition use the trade deficit as evidence free trade is harmful. "At best that's bad economics; at worst it's demagoguery," Paulson said.

Paulson said the U.S. trade deficit is the result strong consumer demand and low savings in the U.S., combined with slow growth, high savings and limited investment opportunities abroad. Attempts to erect trade barriers to foreign goods would only make everyone worse off, he said. Instead, the Bush administration is trying to lower foreign barriers to U.S. exports, and push other governments to reform their economies so they can grow faster, he said.

Americans need to save more, Paulson said.

In the case of China, which alone accounts for 28% of the total U.S. trade shortfall, the Bush administration isn't satisfied with the pace of reform, Paulson said.

"We are dissatisfied with the speed with which China is appreciating its currency, the value of which is not market-determined, and with China's intellectual property right protections," Paulson said. "In my judgment, the greatest risk to the economic well-being of our two nations is not that China will move too quickly but that they will move too slowly in reforming their economy."

Paulson called on Congress to renew Bush's authority to negotiate trade agreements, saying failure to do so would undercut the Doha round of trade liberalization talks.

"To leave benefits on the table when we are so close to achieving them would do a terrible disservice to working families and would clearly leave our economy worse off," he said.

Jeff Bailey : 3/1/2007 12:34:05 PM

Treasury's Paulson: Speaking to the Economic Club of Washington, in Washington DC.

Keene Little : 3/1/2007 12:33:31 PM

With Greenspan back peddling on his "recession" call, you don't suppose he got some pressure from some in government to shut his mouth do you? We can't have anything scaring the sheeple now can we. I think we've probably already started a recession which won't be recognized for another quarter or so. And I believe Greenspan thinks the same thing and was trying to gently warn everyone. In the end he's still a political animal. You don't get into his position without being one.

Jane Fox : 3/1/2007 12:25:43 PM

CHICAGO (MarketWatch) -- Mortgage rates slipped for the second week in a row due to indications of a slowing economy and lower inflation, Freddie Mac's chief economist said on Thursday.

According to Freddie Mac's weekly survey, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.18% for the week ending March 1, down from last week's 6.22% average. The mortgage averaged 6.24% a year ago. The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 5.92%, down from 5.97%. The mortgage averaged 5.89% a year ago.

Jane Fox : 3/1/2007 12:24:59 PM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. home prices rose 1.1% in the fourth quarter, just a touch faster than the 1% gain in the third quarter, the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight reported Thursday.

Home prices are up 5.9% in the past year, the slowest price gain since 1999. A year ago, prices were rising more than 13%.

"These data show that, on the whole, prices are still rising, albeit at a much slower pace," said James Lockhart, director of OFHEO. "This suggests that house price appreciation is, for now, more in line with historical norms."

Of 282 cities, 25 showed lower prices on a year-over-year basis. In the past year, the fastest price gains were seen in Bend, Ore., (21.4%), Wenatchee, Wash., (20.9%), Provo, Utah (19.9%), Salt Lake City, Utah (19.8%) and Boise, Idaho (17.9%). Among big cities, Miami had the biggest gain at 15.3%.

The biggest price losses were in Kokomo, Ind. (down 5.3%), Santa Barbara, Calif. (down 4.2%), Jackson, Mich. (down 3.9%), Monroe, Mich. (down 2.7%) and Anderson, Ind. (down 2.6%). Among big cities, the biggest drop was Detroit's 1.5% loss.

Jeff Bailey : 3/1/2007 12:24:13 PM

SPY $140.38 -0.39% ... MONTHLY 38.2% retracement here. Also February's 19.1% retracement.

Jeff Bailey : 3/1/2007 12:22:22 PM

TLT $89.92 +0.12% ... retraces nearly 38.2% of day's range.

Jeff Bailey : 3/1/2007 12:20:52 PM

Snapshot of today's (partial) global economic reports at this Link

Jane Fox : 3/1/2007 12:20:44 PM

Oh goodness TICKS -800. See the AD volume would have kept you away from been long heh?

Jeff Bailey : 3/1/2007 12:16:08 PM

NAVISTAR TO RESUME DIESEL PRODUCTION

DJ- Firm will resume production "as soon as possible" as judge orders Navistar to resume production of diesel engines for Ford. Ruling temporarily settles an ongoing pricing and warranty dispute.

NAVZ $40.60 +0.12% Link ...

F $7.85 -0.75% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/1/2007 12:12:54 PM

GREENSPAN SAYS YEAR-END RECESSION NOT PROBABLE

DJ- Former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan tones down his warning that the U.S. might slip into a recession later this year, saying he doesn't think such an economic slowdown is "probable."

Jeff Bailey : 3/1/2007 12:07:12 PM

ICAHN SAYS HE MAY BUY MORE MOTOROLA SHARES

DJ- Motorola says that billionaire investor Carl Icahn, already a leading shareholder in the cellphone manufacturer, has notified the company that he may buy more shares.

MOT $18.79 +1.45% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/1/2007 12:04:40 PM

PRIVATE EQUITY EYES HOME DEPOT UNIT

DJ- Three teams of private equity firms have formed to consider bids for Home Depot's wholesale supply business, which could fetch about $11 billion, the Financial Times reports.

HD $39.33 -0.65% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/1/2007 12:03:17 PM

GM TO DELAY FILING 2006 ANNUAL REPORT

DJ- Detroit auto maker confirms that it will need additional time to file its 2006 annual report with the SEC due to accounting issues. GM plans to file a request for an extension tomorrow, targeting a due date of March 16.

GM $31.69 -0.65% Link ...

Jane Fox : 3/1/2007 12:01:26 PM

Notice the AD volume is making new daily lows and the markets falls. VIX is hovering at daily lows so the decline will probably not be tradeable.

Keene Little : 3/1/2007 11:58:22 AM

The bounce is getting a little funky looking and it makes it less clear what it's up to right here. If we've bottomed for now then the leg up off the lows could be just part of what might be a choppy rise into next week. It's possible, because of how quickly the market declined, that the bounce will be over a lot sooner than mid March.

We could see a high for the bounce as early as the early part of next week so if you're looking to exit your long positions (if you're still trapped) or you want a good short entry, then be prepared for that possibility. We'll monitor the bounce and the Fibs to help get a better idea as it progresses.

Jeff Bailey : 3/1/2007 11:55:20 AM

Shoot ... no options on the ITB

Jeff Bailey : 3/1/2007 11:49:19 AM

ORACLE TO BUY HYPERION FOR $3.3B

DJ- Software giant Oracle agrees to buy business-intelligence software firm Hyperion for $52 a share, or about $3.3 billion, in a deal Oracle hopes will help it poach customers from rival SAP, many of whom also use Hyperion software. Deal would carry a premium of about 21% over yesterday's closing price of Hyperion's shares.

ORCL $16.90 +2.79% Link

HYSL $51.60 +20.44% Link ...

Jane Fox : 3/1/2007 11:33:07 AM

Well so much for sell the rallies. VIX to new daily lows and AD volume is climbing. Once again you had to "Follow the VIX!"

Jeff Bailey : 3/1/2007 11:30:56 AM

TLT $89.72 -0.10% ... given back all its intra-day gains.

SPY recoups all its intra-day losses.

Jeff Bailey : 3/1/2007 11:29:47 AM

VIX 16.26

Jeff Bailey : 3/1/2007 11:29:28 AM

Sell Program Premium ... SPY $140.76

Jeff Bailey : 3/1/2007 11:29:02 AM

iShares DJ U.S. Home Construction Index (NYSE:ITB) $38.69 -0.41% ... Fact sheet Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/1/2007 11:18:08 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/1/2007 11:03:08 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/1/2007 10:57:58 AM

Sell Program Premium .... $140.62 ... fast market.

Jeff Bailey : 3/1/2007 10:57:35 AM

Buy Program Premium SPY $140.50 ... fast market.

Jeff Bailey : 3/1/2007 10:57:08 AM

VIX Alert! MONTHLY Pivot here.

Jeff Bailey : 3/1/2007 10:56:50 AM

EIA Nat. Gas Storage Table Link ... draw of 132 Bcf.

Jeff Bailey : 3/1/2007 10:55:17 AM

HMO.X +1.20% , GSO.X +0.06%, UTH +0.34%

Jeff Bailey : 3/1/2007 10:53:45 AM

Buy Program Premium SPY $140.41

Jeff Bailey : 3/1/2007 10:50:59 AM

Sell Program Premium SPY $140.22

Jane Fox : 3/1/2007 10:46:16 AM

VIX making new daily highs but AD line and volume should keep you out of getting long.

Keene Little : 3/1/2007 10:44:25 AM

Here's a wave count for the move down in NDX. While it's still possible the final low in not in yet for this leg down it's beginning to look more like a good possibility. We should certainly be very close to finishing the larger degree wave-1 down. The a-b-c rally into mid March will convince every bullish analyst out there that we've had our correction and you should get long for the run to new highs for the year. Listen to them at your peril. After wave-2 finishes (maybe during opex) the next leg down (wave-3) will be a lot of fun if you're short. Link

But, this bearish wave pattern would be negated if NDX rallies back above 1831 (gap close). It actually has no business getting even close to that but that would be the line in the sand. A 62% retracement at 1800.61 (if we've seen the bottom) or maybe the bottom of the gap near 1808 makes for a good area for the bounce to reach, and then get short.

Jane Fox : 3/1/2007 10:43:49 AM

Looks like the PDLs are providing some support.

Jane Fox : 3/1/2007 10:29:55 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The nation's manufacturers increased production in February, the Institute for Supply Management reported Thursday.

The ISM index rose to 52.3 % in February from 49.3% in January, which was the lowest level in almost three years.

The size of the increase was unexpected. The consensus forecast of estimates collected by Marketwatch was for the index to rise to 50.0%.

Jane Fox : 3/1/2007 10:26:11 AM

Here is how the markets are trading in relation to their PDRs. Link

Keene Little : 3/1/2007 10:23:35 AM

The bounce off this morning's low now looks impulsive (5-wave move up). That may be our signal that the bottom is in. If true we should get a corrective pullback now followed by new highs. That would a time to try buying it (and covering shorts).

Jeff Bailey : 3/1/2007 10:19:15 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List at this Link

Jane Fox : 3/1/2007 10:19:00 AM

Markets are trying to rally with with AD line at -1759 and the AD volume making new daily lows they will not be making much headway.

Keene Little : 3/1/2007 10:15:34 AM

This morning's bounce is the kind of "in your face" bear market rally that I was talking about when I said bear markets are actually harder to trade. It's tough to hang onto a short position when you see a big move slam your position. With the new low it's possible that's it and we'll now start the correction to the decline so if you've got some short positions from last week, you'll want to pull your stops down.

It's possible we'll get a big move up, get slightly above yesterday's high, and then get slammed back down for a new low again but I think that would less likely. Therefore a push to a high above yesterday's should be a good signal that the bottom is in for now. That makes for a lot of points to give back but that's the nature of an expanding volatility market.

The current bounce off this morning's low could be a 4th wave within the 5th wave down and another minor new low could do it so don't be bashful about taking money off the table if we get another poke lower. Bullish divergences are building. And if you're brave and good at catching falling knives you many want to nibble on a long.

Jeff Bailey : 3/1/2007 10:04:20 AM

NASDAQ a/d 535:2188

Jeff Bailey : 3/1/2007 10:04:08 AM

NYSE a/d 648:2338

Jeff Bailey : 3/1/2007 10:03:51 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 3/1/2007 10:00:22 AM

THis may be the rally that you want to sell. VIX to new daily highs and AD volume continues to make new daily lows. Just make sure you time it right. This is where the art of trading comes in.

Keene Little : 3/1/2007 9:59:56 AM

BTW, when I said we should get a "small" consolidation that is of course relative. It could bounce 100 DOW points and still be considered a small consolidation.

Jeff Bailey : 3/1/2007 9:53:27 AM

Weekly/Monthly Index Pivot Matrix at this Link

Keene Little : 3/1/2007 9:51:17 AM

SPX is weaker than the DOW this morning and is the first one to near potential support around the 1380 area. Before finding a bottom we should get at least one small consolidation and then a new low (or test of the low) with bullish divergences to give us some clues that the market is bottoming. It's a little early still to be catching falling knives. Link

Jane Fox : 3/1/2007 9:49:05 AM

AD line -2180.

Jane Fox : 3/1/2007 9:46:56 AM

Now we have a nice drop and if you didn't get it then you can sell any rallies.

Jane Fox : 3/1/2007 9:40:50 AM

Certainly starting out to be your get short and stay short kind of day.

Jane Fox : 3/1/2007 9:40:09 AM

TRin really high again at 3.82

Jane Fox : 3/1/2007 9:36:21 AM

Oh my goodness AD line is -1556

Jeff Bailey : 3/1/2007 9:32:09 AM

IBM $90.03 -3.28% ... retraces 38.2% of its July low close to recent January high close.

Jane Fox : 3/1/2007 9:30:24 AM

Not looking so bullish this morning. Link

Keene Little : 3/1/2007 9:14:56 AM

Pretty amazing with DOW futures down more than 100 points, ES even worse down 15 points, and it's still within the price range of the bounce off Tuesday's low. That means, if we're going to consolidate further, we could get a run back up to close this morning's gap and it will all be "just" part of the correction.

If it does press to new lows today/tomorrow then I'll be watching to see how the move down develops and for support closer to DOW 12K and SPX 1380. From there we'll either get another consolidation/move lower or it will set up the rally into mid March so a good scalp long play is not far away. Continue to be cautious with this market--the swings will continue to be large and fast.

Jane Fox : 3/1/2007 9:09:15 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - More workers are losing their jobs, and they are finding it harder to find a new one, government data released Thursday show.

The four-week average of new unemployment claims climbed to the highest level since October 2005, while the number of continuing jobless claims rose to the highest level since December 2005, the Labor Department reported.

Beneath the noisy weekly data, a weakening trend is emerging in the labor market.

First-time initial jobless claims climbed by 7,000 in the week ending Feb. 24, to 338,000.

The four-week moving average of new claims -- considered a better indicator because it smoothes out one-time events like strikes or weather -- rose by 7,500 to 335,250, its highest level since the end of October 2005.

Jane Fox : 3/1/2007 9:06:38 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Core consumer prices rose 0.3% in January, the Commerce Department reported Thursday, pushing the year-over-year increase in inflation further above the Federal Reserve's target zone.

The increase in core inflation, the most since August, matched economists' expectations.

The personal consumption expenditure price index, excluding food and energy inputs, has now increased by 2.3% over the past 12 months, well clear of the range of 1% to 2% favored by Fed officials. By comparison, core inflation had been up 2.2% in the 12 months running through December. Read the full government report.

The reversal in core inflation reinforces the Fed's view that inflation remains the critical risk to the economy. But some economists argued that the spike in January reflected one-time price hikes at the beginning of the year, particularly in medical services, and that the trend in core inflation is lower

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