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Keene Little : 3/5/2007 10:59:01 PM

Tuesday's pivot tables: Link and Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/5/2007 10:55:35 PM

StockCharts.com's Major Market Bullish %

NYSE Bullish % ($BPNYA) Link ... -3.45%; column of O to 66%.

NASDAQ Comp. Bullish % ($BPCOMPQ) Link ... reverses back lower; falling 2.36% to 56.00 (on chart).

S&P 500 Bullish % ($BPSPX) Link ... slips lower an additional 2.8% to 70.20 (72.00% on chart).

S&P 100 Bullish % (BPOEX) Link ... slips lower 1.00% to 65.00% (66.00% on chart).

NASDAQ-100 Bullish % ($BPNDX) Link ... slips lower by 2.00% to 61.00% (62.00% on chart).

Jeff Bailey : 3/5/2007 10:34:36 PM

Euro/yen Cross Rate chart at this Link ...

MAIN observation is the recent strength of the yen vs. dollar and euro.

Jeff Bailey : 3/5/2007 10:10:41 PM

Monday's Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/5/2007 10:09:42 PM

Monday's Closing U.S. Market Watch at this Link

OI Technical Staff : 3/5/2007 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 3/5/2007 7:53:10 PM

YM +41 at 12,077

Jeff Bailey : 3/5/2007 7:52:51 PM

Nikkei-225 ($NIKK) +58.93 points now ...

Reuters Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/5/2007 7:39:03 PM

YM .... up 44 at 12,080.

Jeff Bailey : 3/5/2007 7:38:20 PM

Nikkei-225 ($NIKK) Link ... up 125 points, or 0.75% at 16,767.83.

Low/High has been 16,649.10/16,767.83

Jeff Bailey : 3/5/2007 7:35:43 PM

Forex Currency live ... Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/5/2007 7:29:40 PM

Dollar/Yen cross-rate chart at this Link

I added "blue O" to represent today's current session low of 115.235 (see Forex post).

Jeff Bailey : 3/5/2007 7:21:09 PM

Monitor Japan's Nikkei-225 ($NIKK) for strength (if $/yen) firms.

Jeff Bailey : 3/5/2007 7:08:12 PM

Forex Currency screen capture at 06:43 PM EST Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/5/2007 6:57:10 PM

Dollar/yen cross-rate achieved its bearish vertical count of 115.30, with trade at 115.235

Jeff Bailey : 3/5/2007 5:49:12 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/5/2007 5:16:52 PM

April Crude Oil (cl07j) settled down $1.57, or -2.55% at $60.07.

Jeff Bailey : 3/5/2007 5:15:36 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch at this Link

Note: QCharts' 5-DyNet%, 20-DyNet% and YrNet% may be inacdurate. 5-DyNet% in PINK have been edited to represent recent 5-DyNet%.

Jane Fox : 3/5/2007 4:16:41 PM

Economic Reports for tomorrow include.

8:30a.m. 4Q Revised Productivity Retail Sales Index. Expected: 1.5%. Previous: +3.0%.

8:30a.m. 4Q Revised Costs. Expected: 3.6%. Previous: +1.7%.

10:00a.m. Jan Factory Orders. Expected: -4.5%. Previous: +2.4%.

10:00a.m. Jan Pending Home Sales. Previous: +4.9%.

Keene Little : 3/5/2007 4:13:50 PM

Would you be targting getting long today or first thing Monday for this little ride up you expect, before we load up on the short side.

It looks like I must have received this question late. For a faster response to questions you can contact me at keene.little @gmail.com. Anthony, had I answered this question on Friday, which is when I'm assuming you sent it in, I would have said to look to buy on an early morning dip on Monday. After today's sell off I'd recommend the same thing tomorrow morning.

With the continuing bullish divergences in what looks like an ending pattern for a 5th wave down I'm looking for the bounce into the end of the week to get started soon. The risk is that the market will suddenly break down (surprises from here will be to the down side). So it makes entries on the long side rather risky (catching falling knives). You must be quick to cut your losses if the market goes against you.

Jeff Bailey : 3/5/2007 4:07:33 PM

SPY $137.48 -0.85% ... 8 minutes, 8 minutes until close.

Jeff Bailey : 3/5/2007 4:06:33 PM

Russell 2000 Index (RUT.X) 760.11 -1.97% ... Tomorrow's DAILY Pivot Levels would be 748.60, 754.36, Piv= 765.86, 771.62, 783.12.

Jeff Bailey : 3/5/2007 4:00:54 PM

Sell Program Premium ... SPY $137.58 -0.78%

Jeff Bailey : 3/5/2007 3:57:19 PM

VIX.X 19.05 +2.36% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/5/2007 3:56:45 PM

SPY alert! $137.81 ... gets the trade at MONTHLY R1.

Keene Little : 3/5/2007 3:32:22 PM

If NDX put in its low this morning for the 1st leg down in its decline, then I'm going to use this NDX 60-min chart as my preferred wave count. It calls for a 2nd wave bounce into the end of the week and should get up to between 1765 and 1799 (38%-62%). I show a near 62% retracement up to its broken uptrend line but that will become clearer only after the bounce gets started (which seems to be a struggle here). Link (Previous chart: Link )

If NDX pushes a little lower again tomorrow morning I'll simply change the projections but I would be surprised at this point to see it suddenly let go to the downside. That doesn't mean it won't happen but I don't see that as the higher odds play.

Keene Little : 3/5/2007 3:18:47 PM

If SPX manages to work its way down to 1371, the 38% retracement of the July-February rally, I would watch for support there. Of course the NYSE didn't pay any attention to that support level. Currently SPX is trying to find support at the low found in late November (1377.86).

The same 38% retracement level for the DOW is 11980 and would be viewed as just an under throw below 12K support. That's also the area of the low in early November (11965).

Jeff Bailey : 3/5/2007 3:13:14 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Jane Fox : 3/5/2007 3:10:34 PM

AD line -1928.

Jane Fox : 3/5/2007 3:09:07 PM

AD volume continues to make new daily lows but the VIX is hovering around its mid range so don't expect too much movement either way.

Keene Little : 3/5/2007 3:09:55 PM

Interest rates look like they're trying to put in a bottom as well. The TNX daily chart shows the trend lines supporting "price" near the current level of 45 (4.5%). It takes a rally above 47.9 (so selling in the bonds) to support the bullish picture I have here that says the 10-year will rally up to at least near 5%, potentially higher to 54-55 (62% retracement of the 2000-2003 decline and the March 2002 high). The bullish picture gets negated with a drop below 44, its December low. Link

This weekly chart shows the longer term view of how I think interest rates will play out. It's a bit of a guess since we've got so many corrective movements here but this pattern makes the most sense to me right now. It calls for an increase in rates as the Fed gets serious about fighting the inflation monster with rates peaking later this year under 5.5%. Then the slowing economy and even fears of deflation will start to drive rates well below where they were in 2003. Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/5/2007 3:02:38 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/5/2007 2:48:14 PM

Bullish swing trade long raise stop alert ... for the iShares Lehman 20-year Trust (AMEX:TLT) $90.15 -0.05% ... to $88.80.

Jeff Bailey : 3/5/2007 2:37:52 PM

PHF $9.83 -2.09% ... MONTHLY Pivot Levels ... $9.83, $9.92, Piv= $10.08, $10.17, $10.33.

Keene Little : 3/5/2007 2:32:44 PM

Notice too on that DOW 30-min chart those spikes down in the morning followed by some program-buying induced short covering and then the rally gets sold into the rest of the day. As soon as bears think that pattern will continue is when a sustained bounce could happen. But so far this is a very weak market.

Jeff Bailey : 3/5/2007 2:31:16 PM

PHF's current SEC Yield based on $9.83 would be ... 9.155%.

30-year Yield ($TYX.X) currently 4.648% ... still "more attractive" in my opinion vs. "junk."

Jeff Bailey : 3/5/2007 2:28:03 PM

Pacholder High Yield (PHF) $9.83 -2.09% ... updated NAV history (as of 03/01/07) $10.24 ... at this Link

Keene Little : 3/5/2007 2:24:38 PM

With today's choppy effort to climb up off the lows, there is still the chance the consolidation (with minor new lows) over the past few days is setting up another strong move down, possbily as early as tomorrow. I showed this possibility on the DOW chart earlier (in the lighter red Link ) and this 30-min chart zooms in a little closer to how it might play out. Link DOW needs to get above 12200 (ideally above 12300) in order to negate this more immediately bearish possibility.

Jeff Bailey : 3/5/2007 2:11:52 PM

Correction Alert! to DIA's WEEKLY Pivot Levels ... Last week's high was $127.00, low was $120.05. Weekly Pivot Levels should be ... $115.72, $118.34, Piv= $122.67, $125.29, $129.62.

Keene Little : 3/5/2007 2:04:41 PM

The NYSE is down fairly hard today relative to the other indices but it came close to its 38% retracement (8837) of the July-February rally so it too could be finding a bottom for the 1st leg down. A rally into the close today would leave a nice bullish hammer near support. Then a bounce into the end of the week that takes it back up for a retest of its 50-dma, currently at 9201, would have it retracing between 50% and 62% of its decline. That would make an ideal place for the rally to fail and help bears get back into their shorts. Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/5/2007 1:49:36 PM

ALLTEL IS CALLING POTENTIAL BUYERS

DJ- U.S.' fifth-largest wireless operator is stepping up efforts to sell itself to carriers such as AT&T, Verizon and Sprint, as it tries to chart a new future. Thus far, buyer interest is lukewarm.

AT $59.88 -0.03% Link ...

Keene Little : 3/5/2007 1:45:22 PM

This updated RUT 60-min chart shows a rebound in the end of week, possibly next Monday, but this time I'm using a 50% price retracement which currently is at 797. This would put the bounce at the previous 4th wave position which is a very common retracement level. Link (Previous chart: Link )

Jeff Bailey : 3/5/2007 1:44:45 PM

HSBC Holding (HBC) $86.30 +0.03% ... PnF chart from Dorsey/Wright at this Link

Keene Little : 3/5/2007 1:41:01 PM

The RUT is more bearish today than I had expected to see. I thought it would find better support around 768, its 38% retracement of the July-Feb rally and prior lows in November and December. I think the close will be important today--it could be doing an under throw of support and if it closes at or above 768 then there will be a good chance to see the higher bounce kick into gear tomorrow (if not into the close today, leaving a bullish hammer at support).

Jeff Bailey : 3/5/2007 1:33:13 PM

HSBC NET UP 5% AS US MORTGAGE BAD DEBT SOARS

DJ- Europe's largest banking group reports 5% rise in 2006 net income to $15.79 billion, with growth in developing markets offset by bad-debt problems in sub-prime U.S. mortgage lending. Earnings per share rise 3% from a year earlier.

HBC $86.23 -0.04% Link ...

Keene Little : 3/5/2007 1:29:01 PM

Not a whole lot has changed from last night's NDX chart either. The minor new low today in cash is a lot better than the overnight low in the futures. I still wonder if cash will go down and test the equivalent overnight lows (that would push NDX down to around 1702. I show the possibility for another minor new low before we see a more serious bounce get started. Link (Previous chart: Link )

While it's still possible we'll get a strong leg up in wave-c of an a-b-c bounce off last Thursday's low, I consider that less likely at this point (wave-b is getting too long is both time and price). A corrective rally into the end of the week, possibly into next Monday of opex week, is still my preferred wave count at this point. But a decline below 1700 would suggest we've got something more bearish going on.

Jeff Bailey : 3/5/2007 1:14:22 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/5/2007 1:04:15 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Keene Little : 3/5/2007 12:52:16 PM

Not much has changed from the DOW chart I posted last night ( Link ) but I updated the projections for a rally this week off this morning's low. As long as that low holds then we get 12417 (50% retracement) as the upside target by Friday. Link

There is still the chance a minor bounce to the 12200 area could fail and be followed by another hard down move this week so stay cautious about the long side. If the DOW can get above 12200 then that increases the odds that we'll get the higher bounce.

Jeff Bailey : 3/5/2007 12:46:32 PM

Recent SPY March PUT option activity sure "fits" with $137 near-term importance, with $134 being a large bet of support, perhaps bottoming low.

Jane Fox : 3/5/2007 12:46:05 PM

Well darn it anyways. They got me.

Jeff Bailey : 3/5/2007 12:45:04 PM

Simply LOWERING stops on SPY puts, but SUGGEST some profits be taken off the table.

Jeff Bailey : 3/5/2007 12:44:24 PM

S&P Dep. Receipts (SPY) $138.47 -0.14% ... Daily interval bar chart with conventional relative low/relative high close retracement at this Link

Has come within a penny of MONTHLY S1.

Keene Little : 3/5/2007 12:43:51 PM

These bounce failures are going to become discouraging to the bulls. About the time they give up is when we'll get a bigger rally. Right now there are too many looking to exit on just the small bounces.

Jane Fox : 3/5/2007 12:34:57 PM

BOSTON (MarketWatch) -- Even though the U.S. market tends to bounce back after steep one-day declines such as the plunge seen during last week's global sell-off, a key investment strategist thinks it's too early to jump back into stocks.

"We continue to believe it is too soon to commit new funds to the market, until earnings expectations drop further to reflect the likelihood of additional slowing, and until stocks' valuation metrics improve to provide investors with a better risk/reward tradeoff," wrote Banc of America Securities strategist Tom McManus in a Monday report to clients.

Jane Fox : 3/5/2007 12:34:16 PM

TICKS -1000 that was a well placed short.

Jane Fox : 3/5/2007 12:33:16 PM

I would try a short here using ES or ER and put a stop just above the last swing high.

Jeff Bailey : 3/5/2007 12:27:33 PM

AES Corp. (AES) $19.80 -3.93% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/5/2007 12:25:21 PM

Dreyfus High Yield (DHF) $4.17 (unch) ... Holdings as of 01/31/07 at this Link (Excel spreadsheet)

Jane Fox : 3/5/2007 12:25:09 PM

ES and YM are using their PDLs as the line in the sand today and have been hovering around those lines for about 1/2 hour now.

Keene Little : 3/5/2007 12:23:55 PM

The bounce off this morning's low has a corrective look to it. It's a little early to make a judgement but what this tells me is that we are not getting a c-wave up which was one of the scenarios I had shown in last night's postings. For example, one of the SPX charts that I had posted earlier (11:55 PM below-- Link ) called for a low this morning as wave-b in an a-b-c bounce from last Thursday's low. That interpretation required a strong impulsive rally today and into tomorrow. That's not what I'm seeing so far.

That moves the 2nd scenario that I posted ( Link ) as the preferred count. We could see the market continue to sink lower today so we may not have even started the bounce yet. But assuming we have, this SPX 60-min chart shows the updated target price for the bounce at 1419 (50% retracement) by Friday. Link

Jane Fox : 3/5/2007 12:22:59 PM

ANNANDALE, Va. (MarketWatch) -- In the midst of the market's turmoil this past week, you may have missed it but the Standard & Poor's 500 Index is marking its 50th birthday this weekend.

The S&P 500 (SPX) made its debut on March 4, 1957, and in the decades that followed it has become one of the most-watched stock market indices. Although more investors on Main Street pay attention to the Dow Jones Industrial Average , more people on Wall Street probably pay attention to the S&P 500 than to any other index.

Standard & Poor's, the creator and keeper of the index, estimates that $1.26 trillion is directly invested in mutual funds and other investment vehicles that are indexed to the S&P 500, and that an additional $4.45 trillion is invested in funds that tie their performances to this benchmark

Jeff Bailey : 3/5/2007 12:21:31 PM

Pacholder High Yield (PHF) $9.87 -1.69% ...

Jane Fox : 3/5/2007 12:21:22 PM

Notice how ER is hovering around the 766.50 to 766.90 zone. Under this zone is time to short.

Jane Fox : 3/5/2007 12:20:41 PM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The Federal Reserve's monetary-policy playbook hasn't become obsolete because of the growing global nature of the U.S. economy, Ben Bernanke said in an address on Friday night.

"Globalization has not materially affected the ability of the Federal Reserve to influence financial conditions in the United States nor has it led to significant changes in the process which determines the U.S. inflation rate," the central bank chief said in a speech prepared for delivery at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research in Palo Alto, Calif.

But globalization has made it more difficult to assess domestic economic conditions, Bernanke said.

"Effective monetary policy making now requires taking into account a diverse set of global influences, many of which are not fully understood," Bernanke said.

The Fed chairman didn't address this week's market turmoil but he did comment on the concerns about the quality of debt in the subprime-lending market, saying the Fed is "obviously going to watch it very closely."

Jeff Bailey : 3/5/2007 12:20:12 PM

RUT.X 767.00 -1.08% ... Updated daily interval bar chart with relative low/relative high close retracement at this Link

Jane Fox : 3/5/2007 12:19:29 PM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- A key gauge of activity in the U.S. services sector fell to its lowest level since April 2003, a sign that the pace of growth in the sector is slowing.

The Institute for Supply Management, a trade group for corporate purchasing managers, said Monday that its nonmanufacturing index fell sharply in February, down to 54.3% from 59% in January.

The decline was steeper than expected. Economists had forecast a drop to about 57.5%, according to a survey conducted by MarketWatch.

Readings above 50% indicate expansion. Despite the drop in February, the ISM services index has grown for 47 months.

Anthony Nieves, chairman of the ISM's survey committee and vice president for supply management at Hilton Hotels Corp., said the service sector remains fairly strong, with some activity leveling off.

Jeff Bailey : 3/5/2007 12:13:07 PM

RUT.X 767.57 -1.01% ... session low has been today's DAILY R2 766.21. Look for further weakness to bring the "destiny" trade at correlative MONTHLY S2/WEEKLY S1.

May then look to sell a COVERED SPY out-the-money put.

Jeff Bailey : 3/5/2007 12:09:56 PM

VIX.X 18.72 +0.59% ... low/high so far has been 18.13/20.41

Jeff Bailey : 3/5/2007 12:08:35 PM

SPY $138.52 -0.10% ... session low/high so far $137.82/$139.58

SFB-PN $6.10 ... low/high so far $5.40/$6.70

Jane Fox : 3/5/2007 12:07:44 PM

ER gets to 766.50 and halts.

Jane Fox : 3/5/2007 12:05:47 PM

It should be Ok to try an ER short under 766.90 but you will need to have the AD line and volume agreeing (should be no problem today) as well as the VIX.

Jeff Bailey : 3/5/2007 12:04:45 PM

PAULSON SAYS YEN VALUE IS SET BY MARKETS

DJ- After a turbulent week of that saw the Japanese yen rise about 5% against the dollar, U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson again says the value of the Japanese yen is set by currency markets.

Jeff Bailey : 3/5/2007 12:01:18 PM

Labranche (LAB) $8.23 -3.06% ... probes its low close from 09/01/06 here.

Jane Fox : 3/5/2007 11:58:16 AM

I will try a short once ES gets under 1377.50.

Jeff Bailey : 3/5/2007 11:55:33 AM

CME's May07 Housing Futures Table at this Link

Aug07 and Nov07 Housing Futures Table at this Link contract lows from earlier this year in the November07 (Boston and San Francisco)

Tab Gilles : 3/5/2007 11:54:56 AM

Nasdaq New Highs/New Lows weekly 10-ema has contracted, although this is an intra-day chart, we could be seeing a pause here before another leg down in the Nasdaq. The $VXN has backed off which is giving an early signal. I still think that we could see anothe few weeks of selling here on the Nasdaq 100. 1650 would give about a 10% decline from the double top 1850 level. Link Staying short with Profunds USPIX and UCPIX. Link Link

Jane Fox : 3/5/2007 11:54:39 AM

See it is just not worth while trying to pick a side here.

Jane Fox : 3/5/2007 11:54:20 AM

TICKS -1000

Jane Fox : 3/5/2007 11:46:37 AM

AD line back to -1489 and Ad volume making new daily highs. It is just not worth while trading here folks.

Keene Little : 3/5/2007 11:43:04 AM

From a shorter term perspective on CME, the current rally could be a 4th wave correction in the move down from Feb 7. I don't particularly like this bearish wave count since the 4th wave is so large but it doesn't violate any EW rules and I've found CME trades more like a commodity and these kinds of distortions in the waves are more typical than what you see in stocks. The current bounce off last week's low also looks as though it might form a small ascending wedge. Link

As long as CME stays below 562.20, the end of wave-(i) on the chart, then CME could next head to new lows. Any rally above that could find resistance at its short term downtrend line from Feb 7, currently near 570, and then another downtrend line from Jan 24 near 575. Two equal legs up from last week is at 575.73 and is another potential turning point. So the bulls don't have it easy from here but so far I can't say the bears own this one.

Jane Fox : 3/5/2007 11:42:01 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Russian stocks fell sharply once again on Monday, weighed down by declines in commodities and Asian stocks, with most emerging markets -- including the other BRIC heavyweights India, China and Brazil -- remaining under heavy selling pressure.

Jeff Bailey : 3/5/2007 11:29:24 AM

NEW CENTURY, FREMONT SHARES TUMBLE

DJ- Shares react to news late Friday from the subprime lenders. New Century said a U.S. attorney and the NYSE are investigating trading in its stock. Fremont General is in talks to sell its subprime mortgage business. New Century slumps 60%; Fremont drops 20%.

NEW $6.13 -58.22% Link ...

FMT $7.00 -19.63% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/5/2007 11:24:41 AM

US STOCKS REBOUND AFTER OVERSEAS SELLOFFS

DJ- Following the worst week for U.S. stocks in four years, shares turn higher in early trading after futures initially pointed to 1% selloff amid heavy overnight selling in Asia and Europe.

Gains for the Japanese yen may hurt hedge funds and others that borrow in the currency, while doubts continue to mount over the health of the nation's second-largest subprime lender, New Century Financial.

Keene Little : 3/5/2007 11:21:28 AM

CME has been surprisingly strong the past week considering the carnage in the broader market. I'm not sure what's playing out in this stock but after the head fake break of its long term uptrend line from April 2005, it's had a nice recovery. It's getting ready to test its 50-dma from below (554.80). Link

I don't like the bearish wave count on this chart because of the 3-wave declines but I've learned long ago that 1st waves can fool you (they don't always look like a clean 5-wave move as they should be). What looks like a corrective pullback should lead to a new high and that's what the bullish wave count shows. A rally over 578 could confirm the likelihood of new highs coming. The top of its ascending wedge near 620 makes for a good upside target.

But if the 50-dma holds CME back (it's actually a good place to try a short play) and drops back below 510 then it will be a confirmed break of long term support. If that happens then I see CME working its way down to the low in December 2005 before setting up a larger bounce into the summer.

Jeff Bailey : 3/5/2007 11:16:20 AM

11:00 Internals at this Link

Keene Little : 3/5/2007 11:02:21 AM

GOOG is dancing around its uptrend line from August 2004, currently near 440. This is the level that I had indentified on previous updates as a key level for the bearish vs. bullish wave count. I lowered it slightly based on this morning's low of 437--a break below that level now would very likely have us in the bearish wave count (if price stays below the uptrend line). Link

Like the broader market I see the likelihood for a rally this week to correct last week's decline. GOOG could head back up and close last Tuesday's gap (464.73). I'd watch for failure at that level as a great opportunity to test the short side since the bearish wave count calls for a hard tumble after that.

The bullish wave counts say GOOG will hold above its uptrend line and head for new highs. I have my doubts about that but we'll let price decide--a rally above 485 would suggest that's a higher probability.

Jeff Bailey : 3/5/2007 11:02:12 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 3/5/2007 10:39:32 AM

YM and NQ are using their PDLs as support now. Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/5/2007 10:37:34 AM

SPY March Option Montage at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/5/2007 10:33:04 AM

S&P Depository Receipts (SPY) $138.94 +0.19% ... 60-minute interval chart with updated WEEKLY (blue) pivot retracement at this Link ... Notable outnumbering of DnTickVol vs. UpTickVol in the Mar $134 Puts this morning for ~$1.00.

Jane Fox : 3/5/2007 10:32:20 AM

TICKS -800.

Keene Little : 3/5/2007 10:27:52 AM

We're getting some buy programs that spike out the shorts but not a lot of follow through after them. The sharp pullbacks are obviously traders taking advantage of the spike up in order to sell into it. This kind of choppy price action could be the name of the game this week.

Jane Fox : 3/5/2007 10:27:07 AM

Gold has slipped through its support zone and it is time to rethink my long. Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/5/2007 10:20:05 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List at this Link

Jane Fox : 3/5/2007 10:17:13 AM

TICKS have hit a high of +1354. I missed the long here but that is OK with me. The ducks were not in a row and a long here would have been against the odds. It is funny how the VIX as been leading us though isn't it.

Jeff Bailey : 3/5/2007 10:12:04 AM

Buy Program Premium ... SPY $139.02 +0.28% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/5/2007 10:10:45 AM

Swing trade put lower stop alert on the SPY Apr $144 Put (SFB-PN) to $4.00.

SPY $138.58 -0.06% ... SFB-PN $6.10 x $6.30.

Jane Fox : 3/5/2007 10:08:24 AM

AD line has "improved" to -1713.

Jeff Bailey : 3/5/2007 10:01:58 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 3/5/2007 10:01:45 AM

Well it does look like we should be following the VIX but the AD line and volume will keep the bulls in check and we will not see any kind of runaway market.

Jane Fox : 3/5/2007 9:59:25 AM

I really don't like it when the VIX and AD Volume move together - they are supposed to move in opposite directions to be in sync. However, we may be seeing a "Follow the VIX" day.

Jeff Bailey : 3/5/2007 9:58:38 AM

Citigroup (C) $50.04 +0.12% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/5/2007 9:58:18 AM

HSBC Holdings (HBC) $86.50 +0.26% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/5/2007 9:57:54 AM

Novastar Financial (NFI) $5.39 -25.55% ...

Jane Fox : 3/5/2007 9:55:02 AM

We may see a bit of bullishness and buying today but as long as the AD line and volume stay as bearish as they are it will probably not be worth your time or effort to scalp long today. My bets are on the short side.

Jeff Bailey : 3/5/2007 9:53:43 AM

VIX 19.78 +6.28% .... gapped above its MONTHLY R1 (19.72) to MONTHLY 19.1% retracement. Session low here.

Jane Fox : 3/5/2007 9:53:21 AM

YM and NQ are now bumping up against their respective PDLs.

Jeff Bailey : 3/5/2007 9:50:45 AM

Buy Program Premium ... SPY $138.14 -0.38% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/5/2007 9:49:31 AM

New Century Finance (NEW) $6.12 -58.22% ... Stock plunges on talk of possible bankruptcy/liquidation and criminal probe.

Keene Little : 3/5/2007 9:49:08 AM

After nailing its Fib targets at its recent high of 692.50, gold has pulled back sharply and looks headed for the bottom of its rising channel from October. Short term it's due a couple of days in a bounce and should then proceed to its uptrend line near 628, perhaps 630 by the time it gets there. From that level gold should give us a decent bounce back up and then turn back lower. Link

For the bearish wave count gold should head for new lows. If it's in a large A-B-C pullback from the May 2006 high then the initial downside target is near $500. It could head as low as about $440. But if gold is doing a sideways consolidation since the May 2006 high then it should find support above $575 and then launch a big rally to new highs. We won't know which is playing out for at least another month or two.

Jane Fox : 3/5/2007 9:47:14 AM

Trading in shares of Tom Online Inc. (TOMO) were halted amid news that Tom Group Ltd., a part-owner of Tom Online, is seeking to buy out the remaining shares and take the company private.

Jane Fox : 3/5/2007 9:46:17 AM

VIX is making new daily lows and you are seeing a little bit of buying but with the AD line and volume as bearish as it is I would not try a long.

Jane Fox : 3/5/2007 9:39:37 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Treasury prices rose early Monday, sending yields lower, as investors resorted to flight-to-safety buying with the sharp sell-off in global stock markets entering its second week.

Jane Fox : 3/5/2007 9:39:09 AM

I am watching PDLs for resistance.

Keene Little : 3/5/2007 9:38:56 AM

Nice buy program.

Jane Fox : 3/5/2007 9:38:11 AM

VIX opens well above its PDH and TRIN is 2.03. The bears certainly still have the ball. Amazing!

Jane Fox : 3/5/2007 9:36:58 AM

AD line is -1726 so don't be thinking long.

Jane Fox : 3/5/2007 9:20:45 AM

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- Research In Motion, maker of the popular BlackBerry handheld device, said Monday it expects to deduct a onetime expense of $250 million after mispricing the bulk of the stock-option grants awarded in the last decade.

In addition, Jim Balsillie has "voluntarily stepped down as chairman," though he will remain co-chief executive.

Shares of Research In Motion (RIMM) fell more than 5% in premarket trades.

Jane Fox : 3/5/2007 9:19:31 AM

ER broke through its May 2006 highs a long time ago. Link

Jane Fox : 3/5/2007 9:17:35 AM

YM is also retesting its May 2006 highs. Link

Jane Fox : 3/5/2007 9:16:01 AM

Who would have ever suspected ES would/could revisit its 2006 May highs in such a short time. There had been major damage done to the markets now but yet you need a 20% correction to transition into a bear cyclical so we are still in a bull market. Link

Jane Fox : 3/5/2007 9:07:57 AM

Gold has been having a hard time of late and is moving in the opposite direction to the $. I predicted that Gold would continue its move upward as the $ moved down but I have been wrong on this one. I will show a daily chart of gold later.

Crude and Gold have a direct relationship and is a factor in Gold's decline.

Bonds are having a hay day of late because everyone runs to bonds when the stock market falls. Link

Keene Little : 3/5/2007 9:03:34 AM

We've got a big recovery off last night's lows in equity futures, especially in the DOW. YM has had a nice steady climb since 7:30 and looks manipulated. Unfortunately that could mean a dump again after the cash market opens so be very careful about the volatility. Any time there's been a big move in the futures in the overnight session there is the chance we'll see the lows (in this case) tested during the normal session.

Jane Fox : 3/5/2007 9:02:11 AM

All equity markets have broken their PDLs, which isn't all that big a deal since they all closed at daily lows on Friday but the fact that they have not been able to get back above those lows is a big deal. PDLs are now a level of resistance that may be hard to break. Link

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