Option Investor
Printer friendly version
OI Technical Staff : 3/9/2007 9:59:47 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2007 8:15:20 PM

Don't Forget! ... For those observing Daylight Savings Time, remember to set your clock forward 1 hour this weekend.

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2007 6:56:55 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2007 6:48:07 PM

Weekly/Monthly Index Pivot Matrix found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2007 6:44:30 PM

SMH's "Max Pain" theory for March is $35.00 ($2.50 increments)

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2007 6:28:49 PM

SMH $34.61 +1.70% ... first equity-based index in pivot matrix to trade MONTHLY Pivot ($34.58)

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2007 5:43:37 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

NASDAQ's NH/NL almost identical to yesterday's 54:78 tally.

Keene Little : 3/9/2007 4:21:56 PM

So we wait for a Monday morning resolution. In order for the bearish setup to work we'll need a decline pretty much out of the gates. Any choppy pullback will tell us to expect a push back up to test today's highs and then potentially give us another pullback before setting up the rally leg. So if you're short, take a good look at futures on Sunday night and make some decisions as to whether you want to hold into the open. At least you can keep your stop relatively close by.

I hope everyone has a great weekend. I will unfortunately miss the open on Monday due to a scheduled doctor's appointment so hopefully it won't take long. I'll make a couple of posts on Sunday night and then join you later in the morning on Monday.

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2007 4:06:12 PM

You can also bet your bottom dollar I'm going to mention that SPY $140 Call action from 03/07/07 of $1.40, and today's SPY $141.42 high. That's the "held back" observation.

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2007 4:03:18 PM

In Monday's wrap, you can bet your bottom dollar I'm showing the EUR/JPY and USD/JPY cross rate charts we looked at this week. As well as the major market index charts.

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2007 3:59:39 PM

I wouldn't blame you a bit if you're saying ... "these are just too little, or subtle moves to think anything meaningful can come from it."

Good, then wait for the BIG move, like that on 02/27/07.

If the hedges went on, then wait until they come off.

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2007 3:54:55 PM

Good question ... "If the yen carry trade is off, and things are more bullish for equities, then why are equities so flat today?"

Answer: Could well be "held back" by March's expiration.

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2007 3:51:01 PM

SPY $140.80 +0.03% ... also recovers from a session low of $140.08.

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2007 3:49:53 PM

I'd sure think that begger money center banks would be more sensitive to any type of currency trade.

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2007 3:49:11 PM

BIX.X 393.45 +0.12% ...

Not sure what has happened to BKX.X out of PHLX.

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2007 3:48:21 PM

OK ... getting some confidence in the EUR/JPY and USD/JPY dynamic.

Just didn't want to risk YM below 12,318.

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2007 3:46:39 PM

Bugger made it!

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2007 3:46:31 PM

YM 12,383 ... alert

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2007 3:44:22 PM

Benchmark of TLT at that time was $89.21.

TLT $89.45 -0.99% here.

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2007 3:42:29 PM

TLT-CK bidding $0.65, which is bid we sold covered call at on 02/26/07.

Keene Little : 3/9/2007 3:38:17 PM

I confused a couple of you with my 1-2, 1-2 comment at 2:56, sorry about that. This SPX 15-chart shows what I mean. First of all, I'm showing both the bullish wave count (green) and the bearish wave count (dark red). The bullish count calls for more consolidation on Monday followed by an upside resolution, perhaps up to 1418, maybe even as high as 1428. Link

The bearish count has the initial move down from this morning's high as wave-1 and then a bounce into mid day in wave-2. From that mid-day high we've had the first wave of wave-3, which is labeled wave-(i), and now we're getting the 2nd wave of wave-3 as we head into the close. This count calls for a strong 3rd of a 3rd wave down on Monday and these are often marked with a gap opening (down) followed by continuation in that direction. It would look like a continuation gap on the daily chart.

Because of this possibility it would be worth testing it by having a couple of long puts in your pocket. And then if we don't get the immediate hard sell off on Monday simply exit the position. I think this is a safer way to play the potential downside rather than with futures. Hope that helps and let me know if it's clear as mud (at Support).

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2007 3:36:37 PM

Looked at FTO juuuust below $30.00 two days ago, but didn't like some of the major index "Max Pain" levels and then the heavier FTO $30 Call OI.

Out the money put, which I like to trade time-to-time was too far below at $25.00 and no premium.

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2007 3:33:21 PM

Refiners have been strong ... check out the crack spread of cl07j and rb07j last 20-days. -0.95% vs. +9.82%.

Mentioned a turn several sessions ago, but didn't trade it. A bit to busy ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2007 3:30:41 PM

US Oil Fund (USO) $50.16 -2.20% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2007 3:28:36 PM

Makes you wonder if a bunch of cash didn't come out of Europe and come to US today.

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2007 3:26:50 PM

EUR/JPY 154.92

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2007 3:26:10 PM

USD/JPY 118.13 ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2007 3:25:32 PM

EUR/USD stabilized at 1.3114

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2007 3:21:42 PM

DIA $122.74 ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2007 3:20:38 PM

YM alert! ... 12,365

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2007 3:19:54 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2007 3:13:51 PM

I tell you what ... the MARKET sure doesn't want to let the NASDAQ 5-day NH/NL ratio reverse up.

Keene Little : 3/9/2007 3:13:50 PM

On Monday I had posted a weekly chart of TNX to show a longer term pattern that I think is playing out ( Link ) and it's hard to see any change on that chart because of the compression, but this expanded chart is an update of the earlier one: Link

If 45 (4.5%) holds then we should see yields rally to new highs from here (bonds sell off). Today's move in the bonds looks to have kicked off that potential move. The upside target for the 10-year Note is 53-55 into the late summer/early fall. From there it should be all down hill for the next couple of years as the Fed tries desperately to use CPR on a struggling economy.

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2007 3:09:22 PM

Nothing major considering action in Treasuries. A little re-think that Fed might cut before June is my thoughts there.

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2007 3:07:45 PM

Yes ... 94.77 -0.04% ... (100 - 94.77) = 5.23%

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2007 3:05:51 PM

Getting a Fed Funds futures downside alert ... QCharts locks up of course. I think it was June.

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2007 3:03:15 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2007 3:00:41 PM

Target to open 15 stores on Sunday

TGT $61.84 +0.24% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2007 2:59:10 PM

Treasury selling could be "knee jerk" and the dollar's strength and today's trade numbers.

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2007 2:57:32 PM

Notable that just a day after I mention anything about risk/reward for the TLT, sharp elling takes place.

Keene Little : 3/9/2007 2:56:14 PM

Just thinking ahead a little, and assuming we're going to get a bounce from here, I'm wondering if today's decline from the highs is going to set up a 1-2, 1-2 wave count to the downside. If the downtrend line from today's highs holds back any bounce then we'd have a potential setup for a gap down and hard sell off on Monday.

I wouldn't want to risk a short play with futures in case just the opposite happens but buying a few puts on an afternoon bounce might be worth it. Just exit the play if the mid-day high is exceeded. What I'm seeing in the pattern has me leaning towards an upside resolution but I've also seen enough stealthy tops to tell me a few long puts is worth the risk (need a little higher bounce first).

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2007 2:53:46 PM

May well be the CLOSE.

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2007 2:53:29 PM

Just seeing DIA DAILY Pivot ($122.72) and WEEKLY Pivot ($122.62) overlap. If still long YM, that is the big point of intra-day resistance toward the close in my opinion.

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2007 2:46:03 PM

VXO.X 14.89 -0.79% ... DAILY Pivot 14.55, DAILY R1 15.47 not challenged.

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2007 2:45:03 PM

VIX 14.46 +1.18% ... relatively quiet ... DAILY R1 at 14.83 not challenged.

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2007 2:40:38 PM

YM was "sloppy" enough at 12,330, only place to still have a stop would be under session low of 12,322.

Not the best risk/reward at 12,350 to still try a new long entry.

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2007 2:38:47 PM

YM 12,354 ... should go DAILY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2007 2:38:07 PM

YM's "dynamic" now 50% at 12,381. Overlapping 38.2% with DAILY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2007 2:37:05 PM

YM 12,347

Jane Fox : 3/9/2007 2:36:46 PM

ES's PDL is holding on for dear life and so far it has been able to fend off the onslaught of sellers.

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2007 2:35:29 PM

YM 12,325 ... not acting all that fine.

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2007 2:34:40 PM

USD/JPY looks fine Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2007 2:33:56 PM

EUR/JPY looks fine Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2007 2:31:44 PM

Not sure what Euro Fed Governor said, but can see the eur/usd had the euro getting hit.

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2007 2:30:54 PM

I'd still dump a long. Might have been some stop hunters on that move down, but certainly finding some sellers at 12,350.

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2007 2:30:12 PM

YM's session low came at 12,334 ... 12,344 here.

Keene Little : 3/9/2007 2:29:31 PM

Both the RUT and NDX closed this morning's gaps with that last spike down. NDX also achieved two equal legs down from this morning's high when it hit 1734.74. It doesn't mean it will now rally but I would say downside objectives have been met if this one will continue to consolidate further before it gives us another leg higher (or just rally directly from here). The market is dancing on the edge here and looking over the precipice. One misstep is all it will take.

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2007 2:28:25 PM

YM 12,336 ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2007 2:27:25 PM

YM long stopped alert ... 12,328

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2007 2:26:32 PM

Now it trades 12,332.

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2007 2:25:24 PM

YM long alert ... go long the YM here at 12,345 , stop 12,328, target 12,380

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2007 2:17:45 PM

EUR/USD chart Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2007 2:16:02 PM

YM long cancel order alert ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2007 2:14:25 PM

Euro Fed Governor Kohn began speaking at 01:30 PM EST

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2007 2:13:20 PM

Trying to get a USD/JPY chart, but having some java problems.

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2007 2:12:56 PM

Post profile low has been 12,334.

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2007 2:12:20 PM

YM day trader's 5-minute interval chart at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2007 2:11:41 PM

YM Day trader's 5-minute interval chart at this

Jane Fox : 3/9/2007 2:06:57 PM

ES is the market that respects its PDR the most. Link

Jane Fox : 3/9/2007 2:06:02 PM

Those sell programs are vicious.

Keene Little : 3/9/2007 2:05:45 PM

Two equal legs down from this morning's high would be at 1396.69 so that's the line in the sand for me to say something a lot more bearish has started. The reason I'm not jumping on the bear wagon yet is because of the multitude of 3-wave moves and no clear finish to the upside.

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2007 2:04:52 PM

YM long setup alert let's look long the YM back at 12,332 , stop 12,314 , target 12,380.

Jane Fox : 3/9/2007 2:02:33 PM

ES testing PDLs and NQ is now trading under its PDL.

Keene Little : 3/9/2007 2:02:30 PM

Bulls really don't want to see a break down today that leads to immediate selling on Monday. As the daily chart shows, today's candlestick could be a shooting star reversal candle and RSI looks ready to roll back over after testing its lows over the past few months. If selling follows through on Monday is could get ugly. But we need to see yesterday afternoon's low near 1398 give way in order to confirm the bearishness of today's price action. Getting close already as I type. Link

Jane Fox : 3/9/2007 2:01:52 PM

TICKS -1000

Keene Little : 3/9/2007 1:51:39 PM

I'm showing the sideways consolidation idea (sideways triangle) on this SPX 60-min chart. It's only one of a few possible corrective wave counts playing out since Monday's low. It would likely finish early Monday and then rally into the end of the day. This kind of finish would still easily meet the turn window around this weekend. Another possibility is a little more short term bullish with a move up closer to a 62% retracement at 1428. Link

Jane Fox : 3/9/2007 1:45:00 PM

Mike Parnos' couch potato trading is one of the best investments I have ever made.

Jane Fox : 3/9/2007 1:44:04 PM

As long as this sideways stuff keeps up I am happy. I have a bunch of credit spreads expiring next Friday in the shape of Iron Condors (couch potato trading) and the best thing for me is for the market to just do nothing, nadda, go nowhere.

Keene Little : 3/9/2007 1:43:15 PM

If by chance we consolidate sideways today, meaning any pullback this afternoon holds above yesterday afternoon's low, it's possible we'll see a bullish resolution out of this on Monday. It's clearly early to make that call but a pullback this afternoon could lead to another up-down sequence in the sideways consolidation since yesterday morning and then bust loose to the upside to finish off the bounce from this past Monday.

That would likely set up a short play late Monday at the earliest. In the meantime we wait to see if this is going to break down (not the way I'm leaning but again we'll let price tell us). A break below yesterday afternoon's low would be bearish.

Jane Fox : 3/9/2007 1:40:59 PM

AD line is still a healthy +461 so the bears are certainly not winning but then again price action is telling neither are the bulls. I am not trading until I get a clearer picture, which probably will not happen today. This is just noise and it is very very hard to trade noise.

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2007 1:38:58 PM

Several weeks ago I read somebody suggesting traders SELL SHORT equity index futures as a selling premium trade.

Good gravy! A 400 point rise in the YM could blow up an account. How would a retail trader like you and I be able to hedge that?

If you want to sell premium, do it with OPTIONS, and sell OUT-THE-MONEY, then be able to hedge THAT if the trade moves against you.

By selling OUT-THE-MONEY, the idea is that if the trade moves AGAINST you (underlying price of security you sold DIA/SPY/QQQQ), then we would at least think the VOLATILITY measure would FALL.

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2007 1:29:34 PM

PREM.X currently 12.96 as is EPREM.X (fluctuates by the second)

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2007 1:25:59 PM

Fair value for the S&P 500 today is $13.30.

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2007 1:21:42 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 3/9/2007 1:17:33 PM

Starting to pick up a little volatility here and threatening to break down now.

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2007 1:15:43 PM

Yeah... I'm a bit surprised too ... 2:1

Weakest has been 03/01/07 2:12 and 03/05/07 1:8

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2007 1:13:11 PM

Yesterday's SPX NH/NL was 5:2

What do you think it is today (current)?

Keene Little : 3/9/2007 1:09:11 PM

The DOW and SPX came down again for a test of their uptrend lines from Monday. One of these days that test is going to fail but so far the uptrend is holding. It looks weak here but let price lead the way. I'd still prefer to see a new high to set up a better shorting opportunity (it would clean up the EW pattern).

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2007 1:07:04 PM

Just noting the longer-dated 30-year YIELD ($TYX.X) relatively unchanged vs. a year ago at 4.723%.

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2007 1:02:54 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2007 12:55:39 PM

YM07M's MONTHLY Pivot Levels using a calibrated 02/27/07 high of 12,916 and 12/28/07 calibrated close of 12,368 ... 11789 , 12079 , Piv= 12497, 12787, 13205

Keene Little : 3/9/2007 12:41:57 PM

Approximate futures premium over cash (June futures):

YM -- +96
ES -- +13.00
NQ -- +22.25
ER -- +6.70

Keene Little : 3/9/2007 12:26:05 PM

GOOG has been essentially flat all morning so no change to its last chart posted below (1:06 AM).

Looking a little closer at the CME daily chart I posted below, this 120-min chart shows the latest update on the bullish and bearish wave counts. Just waiting for resolution here. Link

The challenge with CME has been, and continues to be, all the 3-wave moves in this stock. I swear it trades more like a commodity than a stock and commodities I find more challenging to put labels on (just not nearly as practiced on those as I am on stocks). Anyway, it takes a move above 587 to tell us something more bullish is going on. On the other hand it takes a move all the way back down through its last low at 510 to tell us the bears rule.

Keene Little : 3/9/2007 12:06:49 PM

Not much of a change to the RUT 30-min chart. This morning's pullback was supported by its uptrend line from Monday. I still like the 790 area (gap close is at 790.60) as a place to get short. Link

Keene Little : 3/9/2007 11:59:14 AM

Are you getting the feeling that the rest of today's price action is going to be lethargic? It's been slow heading into lunch and now we've got the lunch hour ahead of us. So far the bounce off this morning's low looks weak but we don't have any bearish alarms going off yet.

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2007 11:52:47 AM

YM07M's Weekly Pivot Levels (+/- 5 points) should be 11,740 , 11,975, Piv= 12,398, 12,633 , 13,056

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2007 11:38:48 AM

Speaking of MONTHLY pivot levels. I'm currently in the process of calibrating the YM07M's monthly high/low from February. Should have them soon.

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2007 11:37:28 AM

New Century Financial (NEW) $3.14 -18.86% ... CNBC reported earlier this morning that beginning today, the company was no longer accepting new loan applications.

This likely meands bankruptcy.

This does NOT mean the company's stock will stop trading, however it could be halted in the future, for an extended period of time. It could continue trading and while we would think it trades lower, that hasn't always been the case for a company filing bankruptcy. Some equities have even RISEN once bankruptcy is announced as those SHORT the underlying shares simply begin covering positions and move on.

If short, I would strongly suggest moving on. Damage has been done.

NEW's MONTHLY S2 $3.11.

Jane Fox : 3/9/2007 11:31:05 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. wholesalers' inventories bounced back in January, more than reversing a December decline that economists thought would position the economy for strong growth in the months ahead.

Wholesale inventories rose by 0.7%, the Commerce Department reported Friday, following an unrevised drop of 0.5% in December.

In the past 12 months, wholesale inventories are up 9.2%.

Sales at wholesalers fell by 0.9% in January, dragged down mostly by an 11.1% drop in petroleum sales. Automobile sales were also down, off 4.3%, the report showed.

The wholesale inventory report doesn't usually affect financial markets. The data are primarily of interest to economists as they adjust their estimates for gross domestic product.

Keene Little : 3/9/2007 11:23:21 AM

The Fib projections and retracements on the NDX 30-min chart make it look a bit crowded in the 1766-1772 area and that's the area I'd watch for failure if the market is able to get a rally going again. Otherwise a drop below 1741 would be more immediately bearish. Link

Jane Fox : 3/9/2007 11:21:54 AM

BOSTON (MarketWatch) -- New-home buyers facing an uncertain market and nervous about purchasing a house that might end up falling in value are demanding more incentives and price cuts from home builders.

Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. (HOV), which saw its stock trade sharply lower Friday after cutting its full-year outlook, has been offering more incentives to anxious buyers but it may not be enough, said one Wall Street analyst. The Red Bank, N.J., home builder swung to a fiscal first-quarter loss on charges related to operations in Florida, one of the nation's hardest-hit markets. Yet before charges, the company delivered net income of 20 cents a share.

The lowered outlook despite better first-quarter results above forecasts "suggests to us that buyers' response to higher incentives early in the quarter did not meet management's expectations," wrote Banc of America Securities analyst Daniel Oppenheim in a research note Friday.

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2007 11:15:33 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Yesterday's Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 3/9/2007 11:13:15 AM

Same with the DOW--any drop below yesterday afternoon's low would be bearish but upside potential in the meantime is up to the 12370-12380 area. Link

Jane Fox : 3/9/2007 11:08:56 AM

Same story for the SPX Link

Keene Little : 3/9/2007 11:08:25 AM

There's not much of a difference to the SPX 30-min chart from the one shown earlier (1:06 AM) but this shows the update after this morning's price action. If price breaks down immediately from here and drops below yesterday afternoon's low that would be a confirmed break of the up-channel (bear flag). But a continued push higher chould get SPX up to 1417-1418 if it's to hit the top of its channel (1417.77 would be a 50% retracement of the decline). Link

Jane Fox : 3/9/2007 11:08:03 AM

I have been expecting the DOW to retrace back to the 50EMA before it heads lower again but maybe it will only make it to the January 8th lows at 12337 before it heads lower. Link

Jane Fox : 3/9/2007 11:05:42 AM

Xinhua (XFML) IPO opens at $12.68, below $13 price

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2007 11:02:11 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2007 10:49:31 AM

I believe that would have Dorsey's EUR/JPY pnf chart back on a "buy signal"

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2007 10:48:18 AM

EUR/JPY 145.782 +0.56%

Keene Little : 3/9/2007 10:47:18 AM

This morning's drop was the third probe below its uptrend line for the DOW since yesterday afternoon. This is the reason I'm thinking a break below yesterday afternoon's low will be bearish. We're getting a little larger bounce now so if it turns back down and heads for new lows then it should be bearish. Otherwise we could see this continue to push higher. Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2007 10:45:15 AM

Excellent, excellent commentary from Rick Santelli regarding VIX

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2007 10:44:26 AM

Now ... We've got just one (1) of the SPY May $140 puts, and paid $3.30. So, $140 - 3.30 = $136.70 is my/our cost protection. A conservative put premium seller long the SFB-QJ looking at $137, or below strikes.

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2007 10:41:39 AM

I had "hoped" to sell some SPY Mar $134 Puts for more than $1.20 this expiration, but that doesn't look likely with the trade balance figures (yen carry trade may take a rest near-term)

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2007 10:39:15 AM

My "key" near-term levels into next Friday's expiration (based on options observations) for the SPY are $138.74 / $141.40.

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2007 10:36:54 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List found at this Link

RHT Mar $12.50 Puts (RHT-OV) are still open, but need some horizontal room for screen capture.

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2007 10:27:10 AM

USD/JPY 118.00 +0.72% ... off session high of 118.321.

Strength in dollar vs yen makes sense as it would relate to trade data.

Keene Little : 3/9/2007 10:23:37 AM

I'm rethinking my last statement about the bearishness if yesterday afternoon's lows are taken out. Because the bounce up to this morning's high was only a 3-wave move from yesterday afternoon, the move down this morning might be a leg that is completing a sideways correction from yesterday morning (a flat a-b-c move).

I don't want to make it too complicated but just wanted to warn that it's possible this thrust lower is not the start of something more bearish. If we get a larger bounce that then drops to a new low then I'll get bearish but I'm holding my fire for a bit here.

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2007 10:22:21 AM


Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2007 10:20:31 AM

What that action/selling at $141.40 hints at is that there was indeed CALL SELLING that was backed up. Maybe a SPY/ES long that SOLD the $140's and was willing and ABLE to sell $140 + 1.40.

What was that PUT SELLING yesterday?

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2007 10:17:18 AM

Oooooeee! The SPY $140.65 didn't like that $141.40 price. (See 03/07/07 01:57:22) Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2007 10:05:32 AM

iShares Lehman 20-year (AMEX:TLT) $89.55 -0.88% ... dropped sharply to $89.19 at the open, but session highs ($89.58) here.

Keene Little : 3/9/2007 10:04:06 AM

The pullback from this morning's high is deeper than I wanted to see. It's looking more like a gap n crap at this point. Any break below the late-afternoon lows would be bearish.

Jane Fox : 3/9/2007 10:02:55 AM

Well it looks like the bears have overpowered the bulls again. This is certainly different from yesteryear (yesterweek?).

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2007 10:02:52 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Keene Little : 3/9/2007 10:02:30 AM

The bond market certainly didn't like this morning's numbers--the 30-year dropped a full point and is now trying to bounce. The wage inflation data is what the Fed watches carefully and the +4.1% over the past year is not Fed friendly. This will keep them on a steady rate path if not more seriously think about another rate increase (which they won't have to do if the bond market does it for them).

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2007 9:57:31 AM

Canada's Trade Balance $6.3B (forecast was $4.8B) versus previous $5.0B.

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2007 9:56:29 AM

France's Trade Balance ... $-2.8B (forecast was $-2.5B) vs. previous $-2.6B.

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2007 9:55:18 AM

Germany's Trade Balance $16.2B (forecast was $14.3B) vs. previous $11.1B

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2007 9:52:48 AM

That could give further boost to the dollar and equities.

Jeff Bailey : 3/9/2007 9:51:46 AM

Trade Deficit Slides 3.8% in January ... AP Story Link

Jane Fox : 3/9/2007 9:49:08 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Xinhua Financial Media priced its initial public offering in the middle of its range for its stock market debut Friday as the Chinese news service managed to move ahead despite last week's big sell-off.

With Chinese-listed shares in the U.S. dipping in recent days, Xinhua Financial Media faced adverse market conditions, but the clouds are lifting amid a quick recovery in shares and optimism over the latest jobs number.

Xinhua Financial (XFML) priced 23.07 American depositary shares at $13 a share in a bid to raise about $300 million with underwriter J.P. Morgan .

The company operates print media, TV and radio programming distributed in China. Xinhua reported 2006 net income of $3.3 million and revenue of $59 million.

Jane Fox : 3/9/2007 9:46:06 AM

AD line is how +1500 and it is not time to be short. The AD line as been strong lately and I have seen selling come out of no where but when the AD line is this strong you are going against the odds if you try shorting. Of course if long you need to have stops in case that selling appears again today, which is highly likely.

Keene Little : 3/9/2007 9:43:28 AM

Ideally we'll consolidate for an hour or so and then push higher again. That's when I'd watch for peaking (short term bearish divergences) and start nibbling on some bulls and see if they bite back.

Jane Fox : 3/9/2007 9:37:38 AM

*NYSE advancers outnumber decliners 15 to 3
*Nasdaq advancers outnumber decliners 18 to 4

Jane Fox : 3/9/2007 9:34:36 AM

TRIN is a bullish 0.80. I am not getting a true reading on the VIX but it seems to open within its PDR.

Jane Fox : 3/9/2007 9:33:40 AM

Well ER opens right at its PDHs.

Jane Fox : 3/9/2007 9:33:18 AM

All markets open above their respective PDRs.

Jane Fox : 3/9/2007 9:31:52 AM

AD line is +616 and AD volume above 0 and climbing. The bulls have the ball this morning.

Keene Little : 3/9/2007 9:28:40 AM

This morning's numbers hardly seem bullish for the market (higher wage inflation and slower job growth meaning slowing economy) but once again it goes to show that the market does what it does and then the news will be spun to fit the stock market move. News is noise. If today turns into an outside down day (higher open and high, lower close) then the news stories will flip around and say how the numbers weren't bullish.

Jane Fox : 3/9/2007 9:23:59 AM

US $ continues to climb and puts downward pressure on Gold. It will be very interesting to see where Gold closes today because it is trading right at its 50EMA and within its resistance zone. I expect Gold to retrace from here and will be watching where that retracement ends. IF it violates the March 6th swing low then all bullish bets are off. Link

Keene Little : 3/9/2007 9:22:34 AM

Similar upside projections for the DOW are not quite as crisp but watch the 12350 area for a potential high (12340-12360). If the bulls can push it a little higher than the Fib projections then the downtrend line from the February highs is up near 12400.

Jane Fox : 3/9/2007 9:20:25 AM

ANNANDALE, Va. (MarketWatch) -- This weekend marks a dubious anniversary: the 7th anniversary of the beginning of the end of the Internet bubble.

It was on March 10, 2000, that the Nasdaq Composite index closed at its all-time high of 5,048.62. By the time all the air in the Internet bubble had been let out, some 2-1/2 years later on Oct.9, 2002, that benchmark stood at 1,114.11 some 78% lower than where it stood at the top.

That drop was so huge, in fact, that even with the Nasdaq's 114% gain since that bear-market low, it still stands today nearly 53% lower than where it stood prior to the bubble bursting.

No wonder so few are inclined to take note of this anniversary

Keene Little : 3/9/2007 9:16:05 AM

This is good. The pattern was set up for a rally out of the gates and it certainly looks like we're going to get it. One more rally leg could very well set up the BIG short play. A small consolidation this morning followed by another push higher would set it up nicely.

The bullish path this morning, as shown on this SPX 15-min chart, points to about 1415 for a potential high to this bounce: Link This would be about ES 1428-1429, so not much higher than the premarket pop higher. Start nibbling on a short if it looks like those highs will hold. If I've got the pattern correct then we should get ready to start wave-3 down and this will be the ride the bears want to take.

Jane Fox : 3/9/2007 9:07:59 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The dollar rallied against the yen and pared its losses against the euro early Friday after government reports showed largely in-line growth in payrolls and a narrower-than-expected trade gap. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 97,000, trivially lower than the 100,000 expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch. The unemployment rate fell to 4.5% from 4.6%, better than expectations of an unchanged reading. Average hourly earnings increased a larger-than-expected 6 cents, or 0.4%, bringing the year-over-year gain to 4.1%. Separately, the U.S. trade deficit narrowed by 3.8% in January to $59.1 billion, the Commerce Department said. Economists had expected a deficit of $60.4 billion. The euro was last down 0.05% at $1.3131, while the dollar was up 0.6% at 117.84 yen.

Jane Fox : 3/9/2007 9:07:35 AM

US $ spikes on the news of the trade deficit narrowing but I see Gold is moving up as well. Once again, which one will take the lead? Oil is not giving us any hints at all. Link

Jane Fox : 3/9/2007 9:01:07 AM

So do you think the markets like the data out at 8:30? Yup I think so. Link

Jane Fox : 3/9/2007 8:59:00 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The U.S. trade deficit narrowed again in January, adding to the sense that the trade gap has at least stabilized and may even be starting on a downward trend, a government report showed Friday.

The nation's trade deficit narrowed by 3.8% to $59.1 billion, the Commerce Department said. This is the fourth narrowing of the deficit in the past five months.

The size of the decline surprised analysts. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had expected the deficit to narrow to $60.4 billion. >p>December's trade deficit was revised slightly to $61.5 billion from the initial estimate of $61.2 billion.

Jane Fox : 3/9/2007 8:58:03 AM

Employment report highlights

. US. employment rate dips to 4.5%
. Nonfarm payrolls up 97,000
. Average hourly earnings up 0.4%
. Average work week falls to 33.7 hours

Jane Fox : 3/9/2007 8:56:05 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Hit by wintry weather in February, the U.S. economy created the fewest number of jobs in two years, even as the unemployment rate fell back to 4.5%, the Labor Department reported Friday.

Nonfarm payrolls increased by 97,000, trivially lower than the 100,000 expected by economists surveyed by MarketWatch. It was the smallest job gain since January 2005.

Payroll growth in the previous two months was revised higher by a total of 55,000. January's payrolls were revised up to 146,000 from 111,000 previously.

While job growth was relatively weak in February, other aspects of the report pointed toward a tight labor market. The drop in the unemployment rate back to 4.5% from 4.6% was unexpected. The unemployment rate has drifted between 4.4% and 4.6% for the past six months.

Market Monitor Archives