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Keene Little : 3/14/2007 11:16:47 PM

Thursday's pivot tables: Link and Link

OI Technical Staff : 3/14/2007 11:00:00 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2007 9:42:54 PM

EIA: Weekly Gross Inputs Into Refineries, Ref. Op. Capacity and Pct. Utilization of Op. Capacity table that I keep track of at this Link

Notes: My Crude Oil # of Days Supply is tabulated somewhat differently than the EIA's. I've yet to check, but I believe they are using just the Crude Oil Inputs, not the Gross Inputs figures. I would like to use just the Crude Oil Inputs too, but there's only so many numbers and so much data I can keep track of. USE THE EIA's day's supply data once it is released later on a Wednesday. Link

The USO prices are based on the actual close for the USO on that Friday, not the Wednesday of most report releases.

I tend to be a believer that smart money knows what the data is before the Wednesday release anyway.

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2007 9:18:33 PM

EIA: Weekly Crude Oil, Gasoline, Reform. Gasoline and Distillate table that I keep track of at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2007 9:05:11 PM

EIA's This Week In Petroleum Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2007 7:21:24 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2007 6:57:09 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2007 6:54:35 PM

SPX's NH/NL finished 3:12

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2007 6:48:54 PM

Guess how many new lows at the NASDAQ?

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2007 6:39:52 PM

Continuous Unleaded ($GASO) vs. Continuous Oil ($WTIC) relative strengh chart on 1-point box Link

A great way to visualize the crack spread.

0.50 point box Link

0.25 point box Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2007 6:33:18 PM

April Crude Oil (cl07j) settled up $0.23, or +0.40% at $58.16.

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2007 6:29:41 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2007 6:02:47 PM

USD/JPY Cross Rate PnF Chart ... where I've placed a "blue O" to represent today's low. At that point, a PnF chartist stops charting. The "blue ?" would represent the rest of today's action. Link

In Monday's Market Wrap Link I mentioned the USD/JPY with some resistance/support price levels tied to the SPY.

For handcharting the USD/JPY, the first question for tomorrow is ... 1) Since the chart is still in a column of "O", did it trade 115.47? If so, then continue to chart in same column. If answer is no, then.... 2) Did it see a 3-box reversal higher trade to 116.63? If so, then place X at 116.05 to 116.63, and possibly higher.

Are charting subscription prices getting you down? Then buy some graph paper, a pencil, and create your own charts! Just like Charles Dow did when monitoring his extensive portfolio of stocks!

But be careful! It can become addictive, and next thing you know, you're actually making PREDICTIONS, based on feel (from hand charting), of where/how a security will/should trade, as you become "intimate" with the laws of supply and demand.

Even before "the boyz" do a jam job, as you will likely sense where the jam job will take place!

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2007 5:29:15 PM

USD/JPY Screen capture of Forex's chart. Once you "detach" the chart (lower left corner "push pin"), then go up to View for an "information" box. Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2007 5:20:40 PM

USD/JPY begins the new day at 117.04

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2007 5:17:17 PM

EUR/JPY begins the new day at 154.78. Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2007 5:14:54 PM

EWJ's Daily/Weekly/Monthly Pivot Matrix at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2007 5:02:04 PM

I hope Anthony did buy some $139 calls! The $138 didn't do too bad either.

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2007 5:00:13 PM

SPY Option chain at the close. Sorted by CBOE Volume (Low/AvgHLC/High) prices are that of CBOE only) at this Link ... We/I did NOT get filled as outlined last night for a covered put sell in the SFB-OF for $1.10. Low/High for that option, all exchanges was $0.15/$1.00.

I marked in BLACK the wrong put, we're currently LONG the May $140 ... Wednesday's are a long day for me.

SPY Option chain from 12:13 PM EDT Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2007 4:22:17 PM

Target on EWJ long is $14.60.

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2007 4:19:25 PM

Swing trade long alert for 300 shares of the ishares Japan (EWJ) at the PACX offer with a LIMIT price of $14.45.

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2007 4:16:46 PM

Don't go anywhere just yet....

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2007 4:13:59 PM

Buy Program Premium ... SPY $139.32 +0.77%

Keene Little : 3/14/2007 4:05:53 PM

With NDX breaking its downtrend line from February and already having retraced more than 62% of its decline from Monday, it's looking more bullish than the others. If I were to guess where this market is headed based only on the NDX I'd have to place my bets for the bigger bounce to above last Friday's high (as part of a larger 2nd wave correction to the decline from February). All the more reason to think about shorting a breakdown rather than picking a top to this bounce. If we get a move above Friday's highs then we can start picking a top.

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2007 3:55:06 PM

Swing trade exit partial alert ... Sell long 14 shares of TLT at the bid of $89.88.

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2007 3:53:21 PM

Bullish swing trade long cancel order alert to sell long the 14 shares of TLT at $89.84 stop.

Keene Little : 3/14/2007 3:39:49 PM

I should add that the risk to bulls from here is that we've finished the 2nd wave bounce and get ready to rock and roll to the downside tomorrow. If it gaps down and starts running down hard you'll want to get short. If it chops its way lower and chews up a lot of time then we'll have a good idea it's going to be followed by another leg up.

Keene Little : 3/14/2007 3:36:08 PM

This is a chart I'll show in tonight's Wrap but I wanted to show it for those who don't get the nightly Wraps. This SPX-60 chart shows how I'd like to see the correction to this week's decline play out--a pullback followed by another leg up tomorrow to tag its downtrend line which will be near 1395 tomorrow afternoon. Link

That's a little higher than a 62% retracement at 1392 so it may not get there, but it would make for a sweet short entry. The risk for bears is the rally to 1420 as part of a larger A-B-C rally to correct the decline from February.

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2007 3:17:17 PM

SPX NH/NL now reading 2:10 for the day. Another "bad tick" low probabably removed.

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2007 3:16:21 PM

18 New Highs at NASDAQ are an exact match to 03/05/07.

Sensing some equilibrium based on observations.

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2007 3:15:30 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Note: It would currently take a closing measure of 32.00% for the NASDAQ's 5-day NH/NL ratio to reverse back lower to "O"

Keene Little : 3/14/2007 3:14:12 PM

Even though today's bounce has done a good job getting the indices well within the normal Fib retracment levels, the time for the correction is very short. That makes me think today's bounce is wave-a of an expected a-b-c bounce into tomorrow. At that point the downtrend lines from the February high could come into play as well. But the bottom line is that the bounce has easily achieved the minimums for a 2nd wave correction and could fail at any time. The risk now shifts back to the long side.

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2007 3:05:02 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Keene Little : 3/14/2007 3:04:04 PM

The daily candlestick looks like a very bullish hammer (or an even more bullish dragonfly doji or paper umbrella) at support (200-ema). It should get a lot of bulls excited about this buying opportunity. The challenge for us bears will be to identify the top of the bounce.

Stopping in on a break down is also a strategy, rather than trying to pick a top. That way if it rallies back above Monday's high as the finishing leg of a larger correction you won't get cut up trying to catch a top. Just be careful about the first pullback from a high for today's bounce as it might just be a b-wave and tomorrow we'll get wave-c up to finish the a-b-c wave-2 correction to this week's decline.

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2007 3:01:36 PM

EWJ $14.33 -1.44% ... right at WEEKLY S2 now.

If the US majors finish "too much" higher, and USD and EUR find too much strength against the JPY, he/she would have to think a rebound in Japan tonight (Thursday).

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2007 2:56:14 PM

No idea what the "influencial" levels might be for the DIA/QQQQ/IWM.

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2007 2:55:45 PM

Enough to make your head swim if your not focused on just one index isn't it?

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2007 2:55:09 PM

VIX.X 18.10 -0.16% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2007 2:54:33 PM

SPY alert! either side of that $138.74 Op-Ex level.

DAILY Pivot right here at $139.02.

Keene Little : 3/14/2007 2:49:00 PM

The other possibility is that we'll get a pullback soon (in wave-b) that will lead to another rally leg tomorrow (wave-c) to finish the 2nd wave bounce. Be thinking about nibbling on some short plays as we press higher and it begins to look weak.

Another way to play it is to simply wait for a break below today's low--that would be confirmation that we're into the 3rd wave down and you'll want to short that drop. The reason that might be an effective way to go is because it's still possible we'll get a strong rally back up to above Monday's high in order to finish a larger correction of the decline from February's high.

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2007 2:49:11 PM

Frontier Oil (FTO) $31.10 +0.58% ... off session lows of $30.24.

March $30 Call OI is "heaviest" at 4,095.

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2007 2:49:07 PM

Valero Energy (VLO) $61.12 +1.54% ... has checked in at yesterday's bull entry (selling NAKED Put) benchmark of $61.22.

Keene Little : 3/14/2007 2:44:56 PM

We've had a very sharp bounce off today's low and two equal legs up would be at SPX 1391.69, just under a 62% retracement of the decline from Monday. For the DOW the equivalent move would be to 12174 which would be between a 50% and 62% retracement. Those are the levels to watch for a potential high to this bounce and a time to get short. I thought the bounce would take us into tomorrow but it's happening faster than I thought it would take.

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2007 2:42:04 PM

S&P Select Financial (AMEX:XLF) $34.89 +0.25% ... #14 most active now. Has reclaimed 200-da SMA on bar chart.

Good gravy! Turned over 40 million yesterday.

03/05/07 close right here too!

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2007 2:40:02 PM

XBD.X 226.82 +0.94% ... session highs! WEEKLY S1 just ahead at 228. Session low marked at WEEKLY S2.

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2007 2:38:16 PM

SPY 138.72 +0.33% ... WEEKLY S1 now down at ($138.27)

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2007 2:37:03 PM

YM 12,196 now. Back for a look at its WEEKLY S1.

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2007 2:35:50 PM

Day trader probably thinks ... YM DAILY S2 was what "saved" SPY from its DAILY S2.

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2007 2:35:03 PM

TLT came about as close to its DAILY R2 and SPY came to its DAILY S2.

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2007 2:33:48 PM

Bullish swing trade raise stop on partial alert ... Let's bring a stop up to $89.84 on the "odd number" 14 shares of TLT.

For those with larger positions, the thought here is to stay long what you've sold CC on, but take a profit on the rest, then look for more attractive YIELD on price pullback.

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2007 2:31:26 PM

TLT's DAILY S2 $89.85, WEEKLY Pivot down at $89.70.

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2007 2:30:41 PM

TLT $89.88 -0.45% ... reversing gains now. Oh yes, Op-Ex here too.

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2007 2:29:21 PM

SPX now showing NH/NL of 0:11

Must be a correction from 12 NLs on a "bad tick" for one stock.

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2007 2:28:39 PM

NASDAQ NH/NL currently 15:166

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2007 2:22:22 PM

Great job Dave! SPX 1,370 is SPY $137.

VIX 18.65 +2.86% is off its highs of 21.25.

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2007 2:18:43 PM

A decent bullish trade setup for the YM now is this ... with YM 12,157 here ... monitor for a pullback to 12,126-12,112 and for THAT TO HOLD, then look long back above 12,150 with some Op-ex action higher to WEEKLY Pivot.

Dollar and Euro juuust strong enough against the yen to think WEEKLY Pivot in play by the close.

Keene Little : 3/14/2007 2:13:37 PM

Dave is on a roll today:

Take a look at the orders for .SXYON [SPX March 1370 put] 30 minutes ago they sold 800 for 13 they just bought back 800 for 4 bucks. The math is easy a tidy sum of $720,000. Who made these trades? Where is the SEC? They are useless morons chasing political purposes not protecting any integrity of our markets. This comes from a former FBI agent. I wish I had my badge back.

Marc Eckelberry : 3/14/2007 2:14:14 PM

Gold might have survived a key test going forward. I'm in at 639 again after that stupid 10 cent stop hit (I should have kept the 637 one). In fact, I like gold here better than equities as long as oil gets a bid and keeps it. My bet is 750/800 by the summer, especially if we get a rate cut.

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2007 2:06:14 PM

Jeff: Great trade setup for selling covered puts in the SPY and the detailed coverege of how options really do play a role in how the institutional traders monitor risk/reward. Also, you've said over the years that the "first sell signal" in the upward trend is often a buying opportunity. Do you think the SPX has legs back to the upper-end of your channel that you posted today?

Jerry- The RISK is just more than two days (Friday's close), but worth a look based on the observations made. The "first sell signal in the upward trend?" Gosh, the SPX has been in an upward trend for years now. I'll review the SPX Bullish % (BPSPX) from Dorsey/Wright, but we'll take some notes at to last May's action. The comparison made will be to other "sell signals" that didn't reverse 3-boxes immediately after the sell signal was given. We'll also monitor the "tail" of the market and the NLs.

I'll answer the "does it have legs" once this analysis is comopleted.

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2007 1:51:47 PM

VLO $60.90 +1.17% ... VLO-PY $0.90 x $1.00.

VIX.X 18.65 +2.86% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2007 1:50:30 PM

Came darned close on those SFB-OF's. Had a pretty good idea the insitutional traders were going to play that one. Might still, but the spike in volatility near-term may have played out into Friday.

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2007 1:48:03 PM

Swing trade COVERED PUT cancel order alert ... please cancel the order to sell the SPY Mar $136 Puts (SFB-OF) for $1.10.

SPY $138.21 -0.02% ...

Keene Little : 3/14/2007 1:46:39 PM

Nice to see our institutional traders are back to printing themselves money. Control order flow--all sells in morning then dump tons at the market at one time. Then sell ATM options (look at vol on SPX 1370 and 1375). They took in millions in premium.

Now turn lose the buy orders and cash in. My suspicion is that they do this with their managed money but the options are just for themselves. I would love to nail some of the [bat turds] and see if they can trade from a small cell deep under Illinois Federal Prison. My thoughts for the day.

Dave, you seem to think the Boyz don't play fair. I'm shocked! They have the money to push the market around to their advantage and my only hope is that at least some of them will get caught with their hands in the cookie jars. But I also know this is the way it's always been in the market. It just seems more blatant now.

I'm no fan of Jim Cramer (OK, I think he's a jerk) and an interview with him in December has him telling all how the hedge funds screw with the system and how few have any respect for the SEC or Fed. He also talks about using the media (CNBC) to effectively "pump and dump". Thanks to Denise for forwarding this link: Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2007 1:42:52 PM

SPY 138.30 +0.03% ... back to WEEKLY S1 !

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2007 1:38:34 PM

EUR/JPY 153.98 +0.37% ... 60-minute intervals Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2007 1:37:08 PM

USD/JPY 116.40 +0.12% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2007 1:36:16 PM

How's the yen doing?

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2007 1:35:48 PM

COMPX 2,351 +0.05% ... a little "stronger" than its 03/05/07 close (2,385).

NL measures could be very influential at today's close.

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2007 1:34:33 PM

SPX 1,374.45 -0.25% ... right back at its 03/05/07 close.

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2007 1:32:12 PM

VIX.X 19.13 +5.51% ... back below MONTHLY R1.

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2007 1:27:43 PM

Just like that SFB-OF $0.40 x $0.50.

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2007 1:25:03 PM

SPY 137.93 ... back above MONTHLY S1!

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2007 1:23:26 PM

01:10 Internals found at this Link

03/05/07 Internals where I'm focusing some attention on NL benchmarks at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2007 1:17:55 PM

SPX NH/NL currently 0:12

On 03/01/07 NH/NL was 2:12

Keene Little : 3/14/2007 1:12:20 PM

Nice little v-bottom here. Me thinks the leg down is done.

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2007 1:12:07 PM

01:10 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2007 1:09:31 PM

I was notified that my "window installation" has been pushed back to next week (Wednesday).

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2007 1:07:19 PM

EWJ Mar $14 Puts (EWJ-ON) are $0.05 x $0.10.

Can't to much there.

Keene Little : 3/14/2007 1:06:59 PM

Would you buy some calls here, or just wait until it tops out and buy puts?? I was thinking of some cheap in the money march SPY calls??

Anthony, yes I would try that, but only with money you're willing to lose. Any plays with front month (March) options during opex must be a lottery play--place your bet with no stop, do or die. But a bounce could pay off as long as you don't go OTM on the call option.

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2007 1:05:35 PM

EWJ-PO's are $0.85 x $0.90. .... hmmmm...

Keene Little : 3/14/2007 1:04:35 PM

BTW, assuming we get the bounce back up towards SPX 1383 you can bet there will be many people pounding the table about what a wonderful buying opportunity today was since it was a "successful test of the March 5th low" (an undercut is perfectly acceptable for such a test). Many will be buying the bounce and it's why the next move down should be so strong--all those new buyers (and holdouts) will suddenly abandon the sinking ship like rats. That's when the exit door gets real narrow.

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2007 1:04:09 PM

Must say, if I'd a bought them this morning at $0.30, they'd be gone now.

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2007 1:03:23 PM

SPY $137.13 -0.82% ... SFB-OF $0.80 x $0.90 ... session high has been $1.00.

These are the type of observations that usually has me leery for buying options for $0.90. They USUALLY "go poof" at/by expiration.

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2007 1:01:33 PM

YM comes within 1 point of its DAILY S2 (12,034).

YM 12,065 now.

Keene Little : 3/14/2007 12:59:59 PM

Looking closely at the decline from Monday for the SPX, this 15-min chart shows a clean 5-wave move down to today's low. I show a Fib projection for wave-(v) at 1365.13, where it equals 162% of wave-(i), which is common in a strong move. It's possible we still have a minor new low to finish this decline but we should be close to the point where a bigger bounce should follow. Link

If the next wave-2 bounce goes to its most common 43% retracement in 62% of the time it took for wave-1 down, we get a projection for the bounce to 1384.48 by mid day tomorrow. If price follows this path you'll want to short it up there since the next move should be a very strong 3rd of a 3rd of a 3rd wave down. The wave count would have some serious unwinding to do to the downside and result in a mini crash. Now we wait to see if it plays out this way.

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2007 12:56:14 PM

SFB-OF $0.90 x $1.00 ... 5,673 contracts traded all exchanges. ... low/high $0.90 x $0.95

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2007 12:54:59 PM

Here it comes ... SPY $136.80

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2007 12:54:40 PM

VIX 21.06 ... DAILY R2 is/was 20.87!

Keene Little : 3/14/2007 12:54:00 PM

While it looks ugly at the moment, the wave pattern is counting out well to consider this as the end of the leg down from Monday. Another minor new low should do it but at this point I think the short side is the risky side.

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2007 12:52:51 PM

For those that might not want to try and SELL COVERED the March $136 Put play, risking an exercise, then losing the May $140 Put, you could "step out" to April, sell further out the money.

You KNOW bears tried to sell it all the way up starting in mid-September at 1,330.

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2007 12:45:37 PM

SPX PnF Chart at this Link ... with channels (pink dots).

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2007 12:38:14 PM

SPX alert! Today's trade at 1,370 is a double bottom sell signal on the SPX's PnF chart. First sell signal since buy signal at 1,290 in early August.

Now assessing near-term downside risk to channel support at 1,350, channel resistance at 1,430.

Marc Eckelberry : 3/14/2007 12:35:43 PM

My stop was too tight. I'm back in at 639, stop 637, but I can't put it out again on the monitor. You be the judge.

Keene Little : 3/14/2007 12:29:06 PM

As Marc had pointed out earlier, the 200-ema is providing support for NDX and now the DOW and SPX are down to their 200-ema's. OEX gave up its exponential average and is heading for its 200-sma which is at 623.

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2007 12:27:13 PM

EWJ $14.23 -2.13% ... suggests another 1% decline in Japan tomorrow at this point.

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2007 12:26:10 PM

VIX 20.25

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2007 12:25:08 PM

SPY $137.00 ... SFB-OF are $0.75 x $0.85.

Keene Little : 3/14/2007 12:24:48 PM

If this is to bottom soon, keep an eye on SPX 1365 area for support. There's a Fib projection for this wave down if it's the 5th one in the move down from Monday's high. Otherwise this could be another ugly day for the bulls.

Marc Eckelberry : 3/14/2007 12:24:34 PM

Stopped out -1.5.

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2007 12:24:27 PM

YM 11,976 ... gets the trade at MONTHLY S1

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2007 12:22:34 PM

SPY Option Chain (sorted by Open Interest) at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 3/14/2007 12:21:05 PM

Weekly S1 is 638, daily is 637.70, gap close was 639 and 200 dma was 639. Can't do anything but try it.

Marc Eckelberry : 3/14/2007 12:19:56 PM

Alert: Long YG 639, raise stop to 637.50.

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2007 12:19:31 PM

That Up/DnTick Vol on the SPY itself will keep an overly aggressive NAKED CALL seller on his/her toes.

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2007 12:16:36 PM

SPY Option Chain (sorted by CBOE active at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 3/14/2007 12:15:47 PM

Alert: Triggered Long YG at 639, stop 637.

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2007 12:13:08 PM

Notable CALL SELLING at SPY Mar $139. Some BIIIIG blocks crossed in last night session.

For every seller there's a buyer that might write those calls.

Marc Eckelberry : 3/14/2007 12:11:50 PM

It's gap close and 200 dma. Maybe a tick around it. If we get it and it holds, it could be a good one. Below that, gold loses the trendline.

Marc Eckelberry : 3/14/2007 12:12:41 PM

Alert: Long YG at 639, stop 637.

Marc Eckelberry : 3/14/2007 12:10:21 PM

OK, let's try it again.

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2007 12:05:24 PM

VIX.X 19.37 +6.83% ...

Keene Little : 3/14/2007 12:05:24 PM

Keep an eye on NDX 1715.44, the Fib projection that I had pointed out earlier on its 60-min chart, as it just might provide support on a push lower here.

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2007 12:05:01 PM

Sell Program Premium ... SPY $137.68

Keene Little : 3/14/2007 12:04:02 PM

DOW has broken the March 5th lows but SPX is about to test them here.

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2007 11:44:08 AM

MBA's Weekly Application Survey at this Link

Keene Little : 3/14/2007 11:39:40 AM

There's not a lot happening here. After a corrective bounce the market is pulling back again. If it holds above the lows and bounces back up then we're into that choppy sloppy 4th wave which will not be good for the bulls. But it's still early and there's still the potential for the bulls to put their backs to this and get it going to the upside. Until something happens here, it's not worth trading (unless you like scalping quick moves since even the short moves can make you some money now).

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2007 11:30:06 AM

I will be in and out of the MM the rest of the day. I'm having new windows installed (yes, after this very cold winter in Colorado) today.

I currently have a GTC open order to SELL COVERED one (1) of SPY Mar $136 Puts (SFB-OF) at a limit price of $1.10.

To get that type of fill, the SPY would have to trade somewhere near $136.25 and DAILY S2 ($136.29) today.

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2007 11:20:50 AM

11:05 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2007 11:07:11 AM

11:05 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2007 10:54:53 AM

Strategy I'd use on the refiners after the recent run would be to SELL OUT THE MONEY puts. Use the higher VIX.X, but plan for some softening.

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2007 10:53:15 AM

For those that noted the "inversion" in the RBOB futures on month's forward, that is likely a forward look to more capacity being utilized in coming weeks. By summer, we're usually seeing mid-90%.

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2007 10:51:40 AM

Plenty of capacity that's not being utilized. About the same as last year's 85.68%.

Keene Little : 3/14/2007 10:51:04 AM

The home builders have dropped sharply since their early February high but they look like they could be getting ready for a larger bounce. The move down from February 2nd is a clean 5-wave move and yesterday's low of 595.06 tagged the Fib projection at 595.84 where the 5th wave equalled the 1st wave in that move down. Link

There's a super bearish way to count this move down, which calls for a very sharp drop from the current level, but the higher odds play from here is a larger degree 2nd wave bounce as depicted. I wish there were more bullish divergences at yesterday's low to add confidence that this index could be bottoming for now but if it does bounce then that might be a short term bullish signal for the market. I'll be watching this one closely.

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2007 10:50:13 AM

EIA: Weekly % Utilization of Refinery Operable Capacity (%) fell to 85.60% from last week's 85.83%.

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2007 10:48:57 AM

EIA: Weekly Refinery Operable Capacity unchanged at 17.4 million BPD.

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2007 10:47:21 AM

EIA: Weekly Crude Oil Inputs into Refineries fell by 165,000 BPD to 14.6 million BPD.

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2007 10:45:42 AM

That has my Days of Supply rising to 21.83 from last week's 21.68.

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2007 10:44:55 AM

EIA: Weekly Gross Inputs into Refineries fell by 41,000 BPD to 14.9 million BPD.

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2007 10:42:22 AM

Frontier Oil (FTO) $31.03 +0.35% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2007 10:41:30 AM

Valero Energy (VLO) $60.29 +0.18% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2007 10:40:19 AM

EIA: SPR Stockpiles unchanged at 688.6 million barrels.

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2007 10:39:22 AM

EIA: Weekly Heating Oil Stockpiles down 2.1 million barrels to 41.3 million.

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2007 10:38:19 AM

EIA: Weekly Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel Stockpiles down 466,000 barrels to 39.7 million.

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2007 10:37:14 AM

EIA: Weekly ULS Diesel Stockpiles up 298,000 to 57.4 million.

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2007 10:36:07 AM

EIA: Weekly Total Distillate Stockpiles up 3.2 million barrels to 120.4 million.

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2007 10:34:46 AM

EIA: Reformulated Gasoline Stockpiles down 239,000 barrels to 878,000.

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2007 10:33:53 AM

EIA: Weekly Total Gasoline Stockpiles down 2.48 million barrels to 213.9 million.

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2007 10:32:31 AM

EIA: Weekly Crude Oil Stockpiles up 1.18 million barrels to 325.3 million.

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2007 10:30:13 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List found at this Link

Keene Little : 3/14/2007 10:23:02 AM

Here's a quick update to the NDX chart I had posted last night (below, 10:30 PM) with this morning's low. I added a Fib projection for the leg down from Monday's high which shows where it would be equal to 162% of the 1st leg down last Friday the 9th. That projection is 1715.44 and this morning's low (so far) was 1718.32. From an EW perspective this leg down from Monday could be either a 3rd wave or a c-wave (in an a-b-c pullback from last Friday). Link

This is why the next bounce will be critical--it will either be a choppy sloppy 4th wave correction, in which case get ready for more lows (as per the dark red wave count), or it will become a sharp rally and give us another rally leg in a larger upward correction from March 5th (as per the green wave count). Until a bounce gets underway we don't know which will play out. But if you're short, be prepared for the possibility of a big rally ahead. This is opex week after all, triple witch to boot.

Marc Eckelberry : 3/14/2007 10:18:01 AM

If YM holds 12143 and bulls take back OEX 631, I would not short it.

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2007 10:14:20 AM

S&P Select Financial SPDRs (AMEX:XLF) $34.57 -0.66% Link ... #9 most active. Rare to see this ETF on most actives.

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2007 10:10:42 AM

"Bad tick" in the SPY to $137.01. Session low thus far has been $137.83. A couple of pennies above MONTHLY S1.

Keene Little : 3/14/2007 10:06:04 AM

Watch for potential support at the overnight lows for futures. If they break then it's hard to tell where support might come in.

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2007 10:05:01 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Keene Little : 3/14/2007 10:04:22 AM

MER is still dropping. Brokers are leading the way down and have handily broken the March 5th low. Same with the banks.

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2007 10:02:28 AM

Forex Economic Calendar at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2007 9:59:16 AM

U.S. Import Prices Index +0.2% Month/Month ... Consensus was for +0.8%. Prior -1.9%.

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2007 9:56:45 AM

Reuters International Page at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2007 9:53:16 AM

XBD.X 223.43 -0.56% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2007 9:53:00 AM

BKX.X 110.74 -0.01% ....

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2007 9:52:45 AM

BIX.X 380.26 (unch) ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2007 9:52:01 AM

US Trade Deficit +8.2% in 2006 to $856.6 Billion ... AP Story Link

Keene Little : 3/14/2007 9:49:07 AM

MER stock just got dumped and is pressing to new lows. The broker index went red. So far not a good sign for this morning's rally.

Jeff Bailey : 3/14/2007 9:49:09 AM

GM Posts Net Profit of $950M in Q4 ... AP Story Link

GM $30.70 +0.62% ...

Keene Little : 3/14/2007 9:41:23 AM

We've got a nice bounce in the banks and brokers (dead cat?) so keep an eye on them today since they should provide some clues as to whether this bounce will develop some legs or not.

Marc Eckelberry : 3/14/2007 9:25:40 AM

I still think they will try and pin QQQQ 43 again if the Yen stabilizes or moves down. Big if.

Marc Eckelberry : 3/14/2007 9:24:44 AM

The bounce was exactly off NQ gap close of March 6 (1734 area)

Keene Little : 3/14/2007 9:15:42 AM

With a concerted push higher since the lows around 7:45 this morning, futures have climbed up near the flat line. This may be a manipulated push by the hedgies so it'll be hard to trust any early bounce this morning. At least be aware of a potential drop back down to test the overnight lows.

However, after yesterday's selling the short term pattern looks like it's ready for at least a bounce today, even if it's from a slightly lower level this morning. Then the form of the bounce will provide some clues as to what's next.

Marc Eckelberry : 3/14/2007 9:01:36 AM

Gold is taking off and it seems 639.60 was the low.

Marc Eckelberry : 3/14/2007 8:17:53 AM

I would not trust another move down there, so either buy it here at 641.40, or wait until the dust settles. I will leave that up to you. It will depend on oil at 10:30.

Marc Eckelberry : 3/14/2007 8:12:28 AM

Alert: cancel YG long at 639.

Marc Eckelberry : 3/14/2007 8:12:13 AM

I might have been too conservative on YG. The low was 639.6 and we did not tag the 639 entry. Now back above 641, 61.8% 2007 and holding trendline. 200 DMA was 639 and we could have seen the lows for now. Huge amounts of puts on XAU, although pc ratios have meant nothing these days. Nevertheless, there seems to be a lot of gold shorts out there.

Marc Eckelberry : 3/14/2007 8:09:01 AM

Keene, it's also a triple rest on 200 day EMA (631.10).

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