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Keene Little : 3/15/2007 11:11:35 PM

Friday's pivot tables: Link and Link

Marc Eckelberry : 3/15/2007 10:23:14 PM

If you bought YM at 639 the other day and did not get stopped out, it is still a solid trade above 644/645. Stops should be moved up to 643. Chart: Link

OI Technical Staff : 3/15/2007 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2007 7:32:11 PM

2.54 million shares blocked in CVS $33.34 +3.18% Link after the close at $33.34.

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2007 7:02:47 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and partial Watch List at this Link

Day traded short 1/2 position (561 shares for $10K=full position) in shares of Accredited Home Lenders (LEND) at $8.91 (Stop $9.40 : Target $8.00. After profile (see today's MM postings/charts) stock slipped to $8.59, then rose and took out stop on way to $11.50.

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2007 6:39:17 PM

USD/JPY went out 117.55 +0.41% ...

Trading 117.40 -0.12%

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2007 6:10:08 PM

Argentina's Q4 GDP Up 8.6% On Year, Full Year 2006 Up 8.5%

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2007 6:03:40 PM

Greenspan: Sees No Econ Spillover Yet From Housing

DJ- Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan Thursday said there has so far been no spillover from the troubled housing sector into the broader U.S. economy.

Greenspan said it was remarkable that so far there has been no sign of an impact on consumer demand, even amid a sharp increase in mortgage delinquencies among borrowers with poor credit profiles.

"A spillover may still happen, but boy it's hard to find any such evidence," he said at a luncheon at the Futures Industry Association conference in Baco Raton, Fla.

"I'd expect it to - I'm waiting - but the spillovers are just not there," Greenspan said.

The former central bank chief said the threat of declining house prices was of much greater concern than the ailing subprime mortgage market.

"What we're dealing with is something which is more an issue of house price than it is of mortgage credit," Greenspan said.

A considerable part of consumption growth over the past few years has been attributable to the "substantial rise in the capital gains of homes," Greenspan said, adding that this could reverse on a decline in prices.

The former Fed chairman said the fallout in subprime mortgages was evident, however, in "difficulties" in the structured credit market. This market trades in bundles of loans, selling them as portions of so-called collateralized debt obligations - some of which have received ratings downgrades in recent weeks.

Greenspan declined to cast judgment on the Federal Reserve's current performance, or on its monetary policy stance.

Asked about the path of U.S. inflation, the former chairman said, "since I left the Fed, the one question I haven't been answering is that one."

Greenspan initially addressed concerns about the U.S.'s status as the world's leading financial center and its competitiveness with the U.K. and Asian financial centers.

He said the U.S. has had the "misfortune" of being a financial superpower for many years.

"When you're at the top, there's only one direction you can go," he said.

"It's not as though we in the U.S. have lost competitiveness," he said. But, he pointed out that "it's inevitable that the market value of U.S. exchanges relative to rest of world is going to go down - or rather won't go up as fast."

Greenspan said this had positive implications, since it comes as a result of the U.S. having exported its values.

"The rest of the world has moved...towards the capitalist model that we've been functioning under for generations."

The former Fed chief also commented on the progress made in clearing the trading backlogs that reached critical levels last year in the credit derivatives market.

"I was shocked to find that credit derivatives market - which as a market is working superbly well - ends up with settlement and clearing problems associated with 19th century technology," Greenspan said.

He acknowledged the work done by the New York Federal Reserve's dealer group to clean up the industry through improved technology, but suggested there was still more work to do to reduce the hazard to the financial system.

"There's a great danger there," Greenspan said. "Were it not for the NY Fed to recognize and get involved in cleaning up - not fully, but a very substantial part - we could end up with a really dangerous problem."

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2007 5:55:39 PM

US Senate Rejects Call For Iraq Pullout To Start In 120 Days

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2007 5:44:07 PM

One way to turn a "trader" into an "investor" is to not use stops.

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2007 5:41:16 PM

LEND ... Level II INET has size (22K) at $8.50, then about 11,000 at $8.35-$8.40.

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2007 5:38:26 PM

I almost hate to post that as newer trader might think ... "don't trade with stops."

This stock traded $11.50 today.

Long, or short... better to trade with stops.

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2007 5:36:46 PM

LEND alert! $9.43 +56.12 ... $8.69 extended.

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2007 5:34:40 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2007 5:23:56 PM

April Crude Oil (cl07j) settled down $0.61, or -1.05% at $57.55.

April Unleaded (rb07j) settled down $0.0467, or -2.42% at $1.8816.

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2007 5:04:24 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2007 4:24:40 PM

Bear Stearns (BSC) $148.50 +2.20% ... 10-minute interval with EXIT STRATEGY for 5 of the BSC-CJ at this Link

Jane Fox : 3/15/2007 4:16:27 PM

Economic Reports include:

8:30a.m. Feb Consumer Price Index. Expected: +0.3%. Previous: +0.2%.

8:30a.m. Feb Consumer Price Index, Ex-Food & Energy. +0.2%. Previous: +0.3%.

9:15a.m. Feb Industrial Production. Expected: +0.3%. Previous: -0.5%.

9:15a.m. Feb Capacity Utilization.Expected: +81.3%. Previous: 81.2%.

10:00a.m. Mid-Mar Reuters/U Of Mich Sentiment Index. Expected: 90.3. Previous: 91.3.

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2007 4:04:24 PM

That'd be a "dandy" if BSC could go overlap at DAILY R2.

Keene Little : 3/15/2007 4:03:46 PM

A boring finish to a boring day. Let's hope opex Friday doesn't give us the same.

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2007 4:03:28 PM

Bear Stearns (BSC) $148.50 +2.20% ... looks official. DAILY Pivot Levels for tomorrow are ... $142.42, $145.46, Piv= $147.55, $150.59, $152.68.

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2007 3:58:55 PM

NFI 5.11

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2007 3:58:44 PM

LEND $9.50

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2007 3:46:56 PM

BSC $148.11 ... right on its 200-day SMA.

Keene Little : 3/15/2007 3:46:50 PM

The reason I don't think we'll have any gap move tomorrow morning, except maybe a small gap up, is because of settlement numbers. My guess is that many will be working at keeping SPX as high as possible for settlement numbers.

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2007 3:45:58 PM

Walgreen (WAG) $45.60 +2.30% ... pretty good volume on move back above 200-day SMA.

Keene Little : 3/15/2007 3:40:14 PM

Either that or we'll get a gap down tomorrow morning, the way the declines have started lately. In that case goodbye premium on those BSC calls. But that's why it's a lottery play.

Keene Little : 3/15/2007 3:37:44 PM

Jeff, I like your chances on those BSC March 150 calls. Good lottery play. Today's sideways consolidation looks like it could be finishing here and it should resolve to the upside tomorrow. Hang onto those babies.

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2007 3:35:40 PM

BSC 5-minute interval chart with WEEKLY Pivot retracement at this Link ... Keep it handy, might come in useful tomorrow.

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2007 3:30:06 PM

It's now 02:30 PM in Chicago (see 01:58:50 Post)

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2007 3:28:44 PM

Op-Ex Spec Call Filled alert ... on five (5) of the BSC-CJ @ $0.25.

BSC $148.30

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2007 3:21:05 PM

BSC-CJ $0.25 x $0.40 ... BSC $148.85

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2007 3:20:19 PM

It's 02:20 PM in Chicago.

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2007 3:19:56 PM

NFI alert ... 50% dynamic.

Jane Fox : 3/15/2007 3:18:25 PM

The odds that this consolidation will resolve higher are greater than it will resolve lower. Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2007 3:17:44 PM

A potential "moment of intra-day truth" for LEND $9.41 +55.79% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2007 3:16:13 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link ... NH/NL measures are 02:45 PM EST. Seeing several vendors mentioning data feed problems.

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2007 3:11:39 PM

TLT $89.85 -0.03% ... "strong" above WEEKLY Pivot $89.70 (tested this morning).

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2007 3:10:47 PM

30-year YIELD ($TYX.X) goes out at WEEKLY Pivot.

Keene Little : 3/15/2007 3:07:35 PM

Still going sideways as we head into the last hour. It certainly looks like we're going to be pinned at present prices into the close. Flat is clearly the best position right now as final hour opex moves can come out of nowhere. It's just not worth the risk. Tomorrow we'll have a better sense (I hope) of what's setting up here.

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2007 3:02:36 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2007 2:54:55 PM

See if "they" start bringing them ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2007 2:53:23 PM

It's 01:53 PM EDT in Chicago.

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2007 2:52:32 PM

BSC-CJ alert! $0.45 x $0.70 ... didn't get filled at $0.25, but monitoring.

BSC $148.80

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2007 2:51:20 PM

LEND $9.68 +60.09% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2007 2:50:16 PM

NFI has a WEEKLY Pivot at $5.10.

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2007 2:49:56 PM

Here comes NFI to 38.2% dynamic.

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2007 2:49:16 PM

Can really start to see the levels of 5-mrt and dynamic coming into play on LEND.

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2007 2:46:32 PM

SPY $139.69 +0.29% .... juuuust below its WEEKLY Pivot. Looking like a gravitation point.

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2007 2:45:46 PM

VIX.X 16.31 -6.13% ... has gotten juuuust above its WEEKLY Pivot. Looking like a gravitation point now.

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2007 2:43:06 PM

NFI $5.06 +21.29% ... sitting on top of its 50% "dynamic" of $5.00.

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2007 2:39:57 PM

USD/JPY 117.61 ... just off session high of 117.76

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2007 2:35:01 PM

LEND 10.04 now.

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2007 2:34:45 PM

LEND updated 5-min intervals. With stacked 5-mrt and "dynamic" overlayed Link

Keene Little : 3/15/2007 2:34:29 PM

Here's my alligator chart, otherwise known as the GOOG daily with its multiple possible wave counts. As I did with CME, I lowered the key level for the bullish wave count to 463 which would be a rally back above last week's high. In reality it would have to get above the 484 high on Feb 22 to confirm the bullish wave count but a break above 463 would be a heads up. A drop below 437 could send the stock crashing lower, with a pit stop along the way at gap close at 426. Link (not much of a change from a week ago: Link )

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2007 2:26:08 PM

BSC's WEEKLY Pivot is $150.17.

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2007 2:25:23 PM

If you can find one that just tested its BULLISH SUPPORT trend, ah, then all the better.

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2007 2:24:52 PM

MER 80 puts out the money now with MER $80.20.

Try to find a stock "close" to heaviest OI, where the PUT OI is heavier than the CALL OI, where some "Max Pain" can be delivered to the put (If playing the Op-Ex game).

BSC a better candidate, as it trades below the PUT OI.

Keene Little : 3/15/2007 2:21:56 PM

The pattern in the RUT shows an impulsive rise off yesterday's low that is currently being followed by corrective price action. Going with nothing else but this pattern I'd be a buyer of the RUT. There are several other indices and sectors that make me question that bullish interpretation and that's what's basically keeping me on the sidelines here. But understand this chart is bullish right now so be careful if you're short. It would take a drop below about 773 to get me thinking more bearishly about this one. Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2007 2:17:15 PM

BSC-CJ $0.30 x $0.50 now with BSC $148.38

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2007 2:15:20 PM

50% dynamic here $9.30.

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2007 2:14:57 PM

2 levels BELOW is $9.45.

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2007 2:14:33 PM

LEND alert! $9.25

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2007 2:10:34 PM

If COMPLACENT bear, get it under control.

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2007 2:10:16 PM

LEND $9.68 ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2007 1:58:50 PM

HL Camp's Expiring Op-Ex Manipulation Game description at this Link (Chicago is one hour behind New York time).

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2007 1:56:29 PM

BSC's Option Montage at this Link

Keene Little : 3/15/2007 1:54:08 PM

Getting the larger bounce now. If price rolls back over now and heads for new lows you can short it. Be aware of the potential volatility around that kind of trade as it makes it more difficult to place your stop without getting whipsawed out. I don't particularly like the downside pattern from this morning's high so I consider the short side a little riskier than usual here. Opex pinning may still have some influence on price action that won't necessarily be hinted at in the charts.

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2007 1:50:34 PM

BSC $148.07 +1.91% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2007 1:50:09 PM

BSC-CJ $0.30 x $0.35 ... no fill

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2007 1:46:43 PM

Op-Ex Speculative Call alert ... Place an order to buy five (5) of the Bear Stearns BSC Mar $150 Calls (BSC-CJ) for $0.25 ($0.20 x $0.30)

BSC $148.00 +1.86%.

Target $0.75 on the option.

Keene Little : 3/15/2007 1:44:30 PM

If you shorted the last push higher, pull your stop down to a new daily high since price has no business back up there if we've started the next leg down in the decline.

Keene Little : 3/15/2007 1:43:24 PM

The question right here, now that we're dropping impulsively, is whether this drop is the end of an a-b-c correction since this morning's high (which would mean it'll turn right around soon and head higher again) or if it's the start of the next leg down. Once this small leg down is complete and if we get a larger bounce to correct it and price then drops back down to a new low it would be a signal to get short for a bigger ride to the downside.

Jane Fox : 3/15/2007 1:41:51 PM

... of course the AD line is still a bullish +950 so shorts still need to take care.

Jane Fox : 3/15/2007 1:41:21 PM

Internals are turning and the TICKS are hitting -800.

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2007 1:37:30 PM

BEAR STEARNS 1Q NET RISES 7.7%

DJ- Brokerage firm posts net income of $553.7 million, or $3.82 a share. Net revenue climbs 13% to $2.48 billion as fixed-income revenue surges 27% to $1.1 billion. Analysts expected EPS of $3.80 on revenue of $2.49 billion.

BSC $148.50 +2.22% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2007 1:22:54 PM

01:05 Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 3/15/2007 1:17:33 PM

The bearish divergences on the 5 and 15-min charts sure are giving me an itchy trigger finger though. And the 30 and 60-min stochastics look like they could roll over at any time. Maybe just a few long puts here...

Keene Little : 3/15/2007 1:15:15 PM

As Jane would remind me, there is nothing bearish about the internals right now and that's another reason to stay away from the sell button. I have the cover safety wired shut so that I can't press the button.

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2007 1:09:17 PM

01:05 Market Watch found at this Link

Keene Little : 3/15/2007 1:06:31 PM

What to do, what to do. Flat is always a good position at times like these. The desire to trade is always strongest at times when you know you shouldn't. Playing with some parallel lines off recent SPX price action may be worth watching as we wait to see what sets up. Link

A continuation of the sideways consolidation from this morning's high, if it finds support at the parallel trend line near 1390 in a little bit, could then proceed higher again. It could be a sell signal with a drop below 1390 but I just have this sense that they're going to want to pin this sucker at 1400 for opex. At least that's what's holding me back from shorting after the retest of the mid line of the channel.

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2007 12:53:22 PM

LEND 5-minute interval chart with a "stacked" upper 5-MRT Link

Keene Little : 3/15/2007 12:46:00 PM

CME continues to trade to the beat of its own drummer and is not providing much more in the way of clues as to what's next. As shown on this daily chart, I've tightened up the key levels a bit to help determine where it might head next. Link (previous chart from March 6: Link )

While it takes a break below 510 to say we're probably in the bearish wave count, a break of the uptrend line from April 2005, currently near 528, would be a heads up that it could be breaking down. I moved the key level for the bullish wave count down to 575 which would be a break above its last high on March 8th.

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2007 12:45:57 PM

LEND ... Note: GREEN #7 ($11.50) would almost mark Monday's close.

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2007 12:43:48 PM

If LONG shares of LEND, you can "stack" your 5-MRT higher. Just "clone" your first upper 5-MRT, place its 0% on the first 100%.

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2007 12:42:35 PM

LEND at GREEN #6.

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2007 12:42:11 PM

For those new to the MM, the 5-MRT is a technique I've tought traders over the years, for stocks that gap from a prior sessions close.

The basic rules are this on a gap up like we saw in LEND.

Green #6 is a potential HIGH target for the day.

For weakness, once a level sees a 5-minute close ABOVE that level, then it takes a 5-minute interval close 2-levels BELOW to signal any type of weakness may be breweing.

Traders that may SHORT a stock (like I did after seeing trade at #3, then down at #1, then SHORT back at #3) is to either have stop at the high of day, or next level above (#4 per LEND) to try and limit risk.

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2007 12:35:50 PM

LEND at GREEN #5.

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2007 12:35:05 PM

LEND's Options Montage as stock traded $10.00 Link (may use in future)

Keene Little : 3/15/2007 12:31:39 PM

The indices have broken above the small bull flag patterns we've had since this morning's highs so now let's see if they can convert this to new daily highs. A new high, especially around SPX 1398-1400, that is accompanied by some bearish divergences would be the setup that I'd try to short. Just understand we could be dealing with opex pinning today so don't take a lot of chances.

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2007 12:27:53 PM

I looked at LEND's option OI. Not much at $10.00 strike for March to influence trade.

Jane Fox : 3/15/2007 12:22:55 PM

Internals are telling you to stay on the long side. Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2007 12:22:34 PM

VIX.X alert! 15.49 -10.30% ... slips below DAILY S1. Next level lower would be MONTHLY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2007 12:21:14 PM

LEND ... recap with "dynamic" on left and "5-MRT" on right Link

Keene Little : 3/15/2007 12:17:49 PM

With the Philly Fed Index just barely over zero (it was 0.2 and a negative reading indicates contraction), it surprised economists who were expecting an improvement from last month's 0.6 to 4.2. Once again we're seeing economists surprised by the weakness in the economy. Any guesses they'll miss our entry into a recession again? With the prices paid index rising from 15.8 to 21.8 it shows inflationary pressures while manufacturing activity is slowing. Not a good combo. But now the stock market should rally on such good news (wink).

Keene Little : 3/15/2007 12:13:00 PM

The pullbacks from today's highs are looking corrective (bull flaggish) which suggests new daily highs are coming. But one thing I've noticed about the recent sell offs is that they started like this and then suddenly tanked. Therefore if price suddenly drops out of the bull flag patterns we're getting today, short it.

In the meantime, the RUT looks like it could continue to press higher as well and if it does then the first upside Fib target for the bullish wave count would be just under 791. Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2007 12:09:40 PM

LEND $9.45 gets the trade at green #4.

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2007 12:09:05 PM

Day trade short stop alert for LEND $9.40.

Keene Little : 3/15/2007 12:03:31 PM

NDX is pulling back a little more and if it pulls back to its broken downtrend line, currently near 1735, and finds support there then watch for a potential long play. Obviously a break back below the trend line would be more immediately bearish. Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2007 11:56:38 AM

slap a 5-mrt on LEND too. Green #2 offered support at $8.62. Green #3 at $9.04.

Keene Little : 3/15/2007 11:56:05 AM

Thanks for the reminder Denise--Philly Fed Index out at 12:00.

Keene Little : 3/15/2007 11:52:54 AM

The picture of the DOW looks the same as what I just showed for SPX. The downtrend line from February is currently at 12255. Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2007 11:48:05 AM

LEND 8.72 +44.37% ... Day trader's 5-min interval chart with "dynamic" at and QCharts' DAILY Pivot levels at this Link

Jane Fox : 3/15/2007 11:50:14 AM

AD line a very bullish +1244 and the AD volume is making new daily highs so the only trade is long but the trick is knowing where to get in and where to put your stops if you are wrong. This is called the art of trading.

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2007 11:42:30 AM

Short it $8.91 bid ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2007 11:41:24 AM

Day trade short alert ... for 1/2 position in shares of Accredited Lenders (LEND) $8.94 +48.01% here, stop $9.40, target $8.00.

Keene Little : 3/15/2007 11:38:07 AM

I'll update the 60-mn charts I used in last night's Market Wrap. Starting with SPX, without a pullback this morning before heading higher, I see two possibilities. Link

One, the sharp bounce off yesterday's low is just a steep correction that will have a corrective wave count buried inside the move (such as a 7-wave move that I mentioned earlier for the RUT). Resistance at its downtrend line near 1397 could be tough resistance in that case. But a move to 1400 to get pinned there for opex would make a lot of sense.

Two, as shown by the bullish green count, the leg up off yesterday's low is only the 1st wave of a 5-wave move up for wave-C of a larger A-B-C correction off the March 5th low. I'm waiting for some clues from price to help determine which one of these scenarios is playing out and it's still a little early to tell for sure. A short at 1397 or 1400 would be a good play and then we'll have to see what kind of pullback follows.

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2007 11:31:24 AM

Adding that one to "Watch List"

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2007 11:31:00 AM

INDYMAC SEES LOAN DELINQUENCIES RISING

DJ- Mortgage lender says nonperforming assets could rise to 1.5%-2% of its portfolio this year, and could rise farther if housing-market conditions worsen or market for bad loans dries up.

NDE $29.67 +2.55% Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2007 11:21:39 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Note: The data source I usually rely on for NH/NL measures is having data feed issues today. I'm currently using Yahoo! Finance's for today's measures.

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2007 11:08:29 AM

VIX.X alert! 15.69 -9.14% ... darts below WEEKLY Pivot.

Keene Little : 3/15/2007 11:06:57 AM

On a short term basis I'm watching the pullbacks to see if they're corrective or become impulsive (which would indicate a trend change to the downside), at least for a short term basis. One leg at a time. So far I don't see evidence of a high in place. Even the RUT is going sideways and that suggests another push higher for that index.

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2007 11:03:08 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2007 11:00:18 AM

Switzerland's Central Bank Raises Rates 25 bp to 2.25% ... from 08:00 AM EDT.

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2007 10:55:50 AM

WAL-MART JUMP-STARTS BANKING PUSH WITH NEW LEASES

DJ- Retailer, underscoring its continuing push into financial services, renegotiates the terms of leases with a number of banks operating in its stores, giving Wal-Mart the explicit right to offer mortgages, home-equity lines of credit and consumer loans.

WMT $45.77 +0.08% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2007 10:51:55 AM

CMGI Inc. (CMGI) $1.91 +6.11% Link ... notable new 52-weeker at the NASDAQ.

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2007 10:50:22 AM

LA NINA MAY BE FORMING, BUT NOT BEFORE JULY

DJ- Weather phenomenon known as La Nina may be forming in the coming months, but not before July, NOAA says. La Nina, name given to the unusual cooling of equatorial Pacific Ocean waters, can be a factor influencing an active hurricane season.

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2007 10:45:09 AM

IMPERIAL TOBACCO MAKES $15B BID FOR ALTADIS

DJ- Spanish-French tobacco company Altadis receives an unsolicited approach from Imperial Tobacco, which offered $59 per Altadis share, a nearly 16% premium to yesterday's closing price.

ITY $86.13 +8.06% Link ...

Keene Little : 3/15/2007 10:40:10 AM

Still pushing higher although the techs and small caps seem to be holding back at this point. SPX runs into its downtrend line from Monday just under 1397, which is also where its 10-dma is located should be a good place to watch for resistance. But the DOW's downtrend line is much higher at 12270 and its 10-dma is at 12222.

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2007 10:32:26 AM

EIA: Weekly Nat. Gas Storage Link ... draw of 115 BCF.

Jane Fox : 3/15/2007 10:32:13 AM

Dateline WSJ - Cisco Systems Inc. agreed to acquire WebEx Communications Inc., a provider of Web conferencing services, for about $3.2 billion in cash.

Cisco, which makes networking gear, said it will pay $57 per share of WebEx, which is a 23% premium over Wednesday's closing price of $46.20 a share for WebEx on the Nasdaq Stock Market.

WebEx, which was founded in 1995, offers a subscription service that lets businesses host real-time conferences and share documents over the Internet. The Santa Clara, Calif., company posted earnings of $48.6 million on revenue of $380 million in 2006.

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2007 10:31:25 AM

Bank of America (BAC) $50.41 +1.26% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2007 10:31:05 AM

Citigroup (C) $49.70 +1.28% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2007 10:30:37 AM

PHLX KBW Bank Index (BKX.X) 112.82 +1.22% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2007 10:29:10 AM

S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) 387.47 +1.30% ... sticks its head back above WEEKLY S1.

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2007 10:28:12 AM

Dow Jones Homes Construction ($DJUSHB) 633.62 +1.86% ... session highs.

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2007 10:25:17 AM

If long WEBX, I'd take the money and run.

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2007 10:24:20 AM

Cisco to buy WebEx for $57/share, or $3.2 Billion

DJ- Cisco Systems Inc. (CSCO) on Thursday said it agreed to acquire WebEx Communications Inc. (WEBX), an online-meeting facilitator, for roughly $3.2 billion, or $57 a share.

Net of WebEx's cash, the deal is worth $2.9 billion, Cisco said.

The transaction is expected to close in Cisco's fiscal fourth quarter. The boards of each company have approved the deal, said Cisco, the San Jose networking giant, which is one of the most active dealmakers in the technology world.

WebEx, Santa Clara, Calif., furnishes Web conferencing systems that let parties conduct meetings and share information over the Internet.

Cisco Chief Development Officer Charlie Giancarlo said WebEx's product offering fits with Cisco's vision of offering service on top of its network. Giancarlo said the small and medium business market represents one of the fastest and most consistently growing areas for the company.

WebEx Chief Executive Subrah S. Iyar added, "Cisco's global reach and customer focus will help us extend our core Web collaboration applications and continue to broaden the services we offer through the WebEx Connect platform."

WebEx had revenue of $380 million for 2006, while Cisco had sales of $28.48 billion for the year ended July 29. The deal is expected to be neutral to Cisco's fiscal 2008 non-GAAP earnings.

CSCO $25.70 -0.58% Link ...

WEBX $56.57 +22.44% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2007 10:19:53 AM

iShares Lehman 20-year (AMEX:TLT) $89.81 -0.07% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2007 10:19:07 AM

FOREIGN BUYS OF LONG-TERM US SECURITIES REBOUNDS

DJ- Net foreign acquisition of long-maturity U.S. securities is $84.0 billion in January, rebounding sharply from $1.2 billion in December to its highest level in five months. Monthly net TIC flows are $74.6 billion, versus $14.7 billion in December.

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2007 10:12:51 AM

iShares Japan (EWJ) $14.44 +0.20% ... Weekly Pivot $14.51. Daily R1 also $14.51.

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2007 10:11:44 AM

USD/JPY 117.25 .... juuust under its WEEKLY Pivot (117.28).

Keene Little : 3/15/2007 10:11:15 AM

The RUT is right at 782, should we pull the trigger [for a short play] or is it too early??

It's not a bad place to nibble but keep your stop relatively close--it needs to roll over here, right now. The RUT is breaking its downtrend line from Monday so if that holds then we could see something more bullish from here.

The move up from yesterday's low looks like a 5-wave move so if it's followed by a corrective pullback then that would suggest another leg higher is coming. If we get only a small pullback from here and another minor high then the upside move from yesterday would turn into a corrective one (7 waves is a corrective a-b-c-x-a-b-c) and could be the end of it in that case. Exercise caution either way right here.

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2007 10:07:40 AM

Accredited Home Lenders (LEND) $7.55 +25% ... subprime getting a bounce into recent gap.

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2007 10:05:55 AM

ICE Makes Rival Bid For CBOT ... Market Watch Story Link

Keene Little : 3/15/2007 10:05:27 AM

It's only on a 5-min chart but as shown for SPX, if this little spurt higher is a throw-over above a small ascending wedge (with bearish divergences) that is followed by a drop back down, that could be our signal that at least a pullback is coming. Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2007 10:02:19 AM

10:00 Market Watch at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2007 9:54:55 AM

India's Reliance, Dow Chemical set to form JV ... Reuters Story Link

See also 02/26/07 MM at 10:32:02 AM Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2007 9:50:12 AM

CBOT Holdings (BOT) $190.74 +14.84% ... new all-time high.

Jane Fox : 3/15/2007 9:46:22 AM

AD volume making new daily highs so it is not time to be short.

Jane Fox : 3/15/2007 9:45:03 AM

NQ and YM have both made new daily lows. It is looking like this will not be easy for the bulls

Keene Little : 3/15/2007 9:43:45 AM

Nice attempt to push the market up at the open and then sell into it. We're due a pullback at least this morning, and it could be very choppy, so both sides need to be careful right now. Don't force a trade.

Jane Fox : 3/15/2007 9:41:10 AM

ES tests its PDH but was not able to break through.

Jane Fox : 3/15/2007 9:39:34 AM

Here is how the markets are trading in relation to their PDRs. Link

Jane Fox : 3/15/2007 9:37:50 AM

VIx is not breaking its PDL and ES testing its PDH. All is well for the bulls.

Jeff Bailey : 3/15/2007 9:37:15 AM

Dow Chemical (DOW) alert! $45.60 +5.11% ... "hot" at the open.

Jane Fox : 3/15/2007 9:36:04 AM

Ad line is a healthy +570 and AD line above 0. The bulls have the ball but they do not have field position.

Jane Fox : 3/15/2007 9:20:30 AM

You will now have to revise your overnight lows for the large cap futures markets.

Keene Little : 3/15/2007 9:17:19 AM

With such a negative reaction in equity futures to the 8:30 data my first reaction was surprise that the bond market didn't sell off more as well. It seems the bond market isn't quite as concerned about the PPI data as the equity market. Either that or the miserable NY Empire Index number has the bond market thinking the Fed is boxed in and won't be able to do anything with interest rates so no change is seen on the horizon yet. Meanwhile equities do not like the combination of a slowing economy and rising inflation. Stagflation anyone?

Jane Fox : 3/15/2007 9:17:02 AM

All markets are now breaking their overnight lows except ER.

Jane Fox : 3/15/2007 9:07:44 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- InterContinental Exchange Inc., the electronic commodities-trading platform, said Thursday it's made an unsolicited offer to merge with the parent of the Chicago Board of Trade in a deal carrying a premium of roughly 13% and valued at about $10 billion.

With the offer, InterContinental Exchange (ICE), known as ICE, is stepping in between CBOT Holdings Inc. (BOT) and cross-town competitor Chicago Mercantile Holdings Inc. (CME), parent of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. The latter's in the process of closing a deal for CBOT, with a vote scheduled for April 4. .

Just this week, CME and CBOT said they were speeding up plans to expand electronic trading. Based on CBOT's 52.84 million outstanding shares, ICE's $187.34-a-share offer values CBOT at just shy of $10 billion. .

In pre-open trading, CBOT's shares rallied 15% to $191, while ICE rose 3.4% to $136.40. CME (CME) shares fell 1.4% to $556.

Jane Fox : 3/15/2007 9:06:09 AM

The only thing notable on this chart is how the Tbonds fell on the 8:30 PPI data. The dollar gyrated a bit but mostly stayed within its overnight range and of course the PPI had no affect on Gold or Crude. Link

Jane Fox : 3/15/2007 8:59:57 AM

Obviously the equity futures markets did not like the PPI data out at 8:30 but looking on the bright side the drop does give us a very clear idea of where we can look for support intraday. Take note of the overnight lows and I think it will serve you well today. Link

Jane Fox : 3/15/2007 8:54:35 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Manufacturing activity in the New York area came to a virtual standstill in March, the New York Federal Reserve Bank said Thursday.

The bank's Empire State Manufacturing index fell sharply to 1.9 in March from 24.4 in February.

The index fell to its lowest level since May 2005. Readings over zero indicate expansion.

The size of the decline surprised economists, who were expecting the index to slip to 19.0.

The new orders index also fell sharply and the shipments and unfilled orders indexes declined. The prices paid index inched upwards.

Expectations of price increases over the next six months also increased, suggesting that factory owners expect price pressures to accelerate.

March's Empire State new orders index fell to 3.1 from 18.9. Shipments fell to 18.5 from 27.1 in February.

The employment index fell slightly to 11.4 in March from 12.7 in February.

Jane Fox : 3/15/2007 8:50:20 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Wholesale prices unexpectedly jumped 1.3% in February, the Labor Department reported Thursday.

Increases in the producer price index for finished goods were broad-based. Energy prices rose 3.5%. Food prices rose 1.9%. Capital equipment prices rose 0.3%.

Economists surveyed by MarketWatch were expecting a gain of about 0.6% in the PPI.

Producer prices excluding food and energy were up 0.4%, twice the 0.2% gain in the core PPI that was expected.

The report will keep the pressure on the Federal Reserve to remain vigilant on inflation, even as the economy shows signs of slowing. The PPI is not the Fed's focus; the real issue is what consumer prices do. The PPI measures prices in the production pipeline, not at the retail level.

The government will report on the consumer price index on Friday. It's expected to rise 0.3% for overall inflation, and 0.2% for core inflation excluding food and energy prices.

The Fed meets next week to discuss monetary policy. No change is expected in the Fed's target interest rate of 5.25%.

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