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Jeff Bailey : 3/22/2007 12:34:06 AM

Wording correction ... My 3/21/2007 10:31:27 PM Post should read ... but I left them in the SAME sort order as Wednesday's 12:18:52 benchmark.

Jeff Bailey : 3/21/2007 11:38:55 PM

EIA's This Week In Petroleum Link

Keene Little : 3/21/2007 11:26:43 PM

Thursday's pivot tables: Link and Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/21/2007 11:22:31 PM

NASDAQ Summation Index ($NASI) 20-point box chart Link ... still in column of "O" to -200. Was up 42.54 to -154.20. 3-box reversal would be -140.

Jeff Bailey : 3/21/2007 11:20:08 PM

NYSE Summation Index ($NYSI) 20-point box chart Link ... reverses back up to 540.

Jeff Bailey : 3/21/2007 10:38:26 PM

May Crude Oil (cl07k) settled up $0.36, or +0.61% at $59.61.

$60.00 on the nose as I type.

Jeff Bailey : 3/21/2007 10:31:27 PM

SPY Options Chain at today's close CBOE Volume only, but I left them in the SAME sort order as Tuesday's 12:18:52 benchmark.

Will want to check tomorrow's OI changes for the Apr $143 Puts (SFB-PM) which ended up as most active. Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/21/2007 10:26:02 PM

Take notes ... 139, 141, 143 (increments of $2)

Jeff Bailey : 3/21/2007 10:23:09 PM

How about put, put, put, put, put!

Jeff Bailey : 3/21/2007 10:21:34 PM

Oh my! ... with VIX.X plunging, what do you think were the top 5 SPY active options for CBOE? (see Wednesday's first sort from 12:18:52 Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/21/2007 10:06:38 PM

Dow Chemical's (DOW) options montage at the Link ... during today's session, I had been monitorning option chains/montages. There was hardly any DnTick on the calls side, and hardly any UpTick on the put side.

OI is heaviest for April at the $45 strike and first thought was today's action may have been some "manipulation" to jolt some action at the $45 Calls, get a covered call, naked call writer the chance to buy them back.

However, check of options montage, and intra-day chart of the DOW-DI from 03:40-03:45 PM EDT strongly suggest selling of that call.

OI Technical Staff : 3/21/2007 9:59:59 PM

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Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 3/21/2007 9:56:58 PM

Not sure what took place with DOW late in the day. Might have been a big player decide that "joint venture" wasn't "buy out" and headed for the exit.

Jeff Bailey : 3/21/2007 9:55:10 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List at this Link

Closed out the DOW-II @ $3.00 when DOW traded $45.23.

Jeff Bailey : 3/21/2007 9:40:43 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/21/2007 9:26:56 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/21/2007 4:12:38 PM

Came darned close to a 4th circuit breaker. NYSE Composite ($NYA.X) closes up 159.46, or +1.74% at 9,317.73.

Dow Industrials also up 159.42, or +1.29% at 12,447.52.

SPY still some time left, but up $2.22, or +1.57% at 143.19. after a peek at WEEKLY R2.

Jeff Bailey : 3/21/2007 4:10:08 PM

I have to shut down for home window installation here in the office. I'll update things later this evening.

Today was a "bullllll market!"

Keene Little : 3/21/2007 3:58:35 PM

This rally off the low on March 14th has got just about everyone way over on the bullish side of the boat again. The VIX is back down to 12 (was prior resistance so watch to see if acts as support now, which would be bearish for stocks). One thing to keep in mind is that in an A-B-C correction, which I'm still counting this move from March 5th as, the "personality" of a c-wave is to get everyone all excited about being back into the previous trend (up in this case).

Adding to this is the fact that 2nd wave corrections often see an even higher sentiment reading than the prior move (the February high in this case). This is why 3rd waves (down in this case) are so strong--they catch everyone leaning one way thinking that the previous trend has resumed its course. When the 3rd wave gets going it shocks traders who were convinced otherwise. By the time they recognize they're in trouble and start bailing, the move accelerates.

It'll happen again and we're probably not far from the end of this correction. It may play out for a couple more days (2-day pullback, final high early next week kind of thing), but we're now very close.

Jeff Bailey : 3/21/2007 3:55:39 PM

DOW-II $3.20 x $3.40

Jeff Bailey : 3/21/2007 3:55:06 PM

DOW $45.68 +0.15% ... has turned 3.7 million last 30-minutes.

Jeff Bailey : 3/21/2007 3:47:12 PM

Swing trade call exit alert ... Sell the one (1) DOW Sep $45 Call (DOW-II) at the bid of $3.00

DOW $45.23 -0.81% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/21/2007 3:45:35 PM

Dow Chemical (DOW) alert $45.22 -0.83% ... reversing gains.

Keene Little : 3/21/2007 3:45:18 PM

Gee, it looks to me like the comments this time around seem less optomistic about the future. Trying to talk the rates up isn't working yet. And the bond boys and equity boys are in disagreement. Who will be right? It also, seems like we won't get a FED event without increasing M3 first either. Too bad, can't leave something as important as the market up to the little people.

With the strong buying after the FOMC announcement, it had me wondering if the Boyz (mega banks trading teams--notice they're still making obscene profits since they're able to "control" risk) had been handed a fistfull of money by the Fed this morning and told to do some buying as soon as the FOMC announcement was made. That way the Fed ensures the market "likes" the news.

Jane Fox : 3/21/2007 3:39:31 PM

HMMM I really like Sumatra coffee.

Marc Eckelberry : 3/21/2007 3:29:26 PM

Gold breaking out above weekly R1 and 30 dma, now above all major moving averages. The trend is up.

Keene Little : 3/21/2007 3:23:38 PM

Gold also got a nice afternoon rally and pushed back into its Fib resistance zone around 663-664. It would look best with a small pullback and final push higher to a minor new high so perhaps tomorrow for a short play setup on that one. Silver has not confirmed gold's new high and this non-confirmation will be bearish if it holds up. But its choppy pattern has me thinking it will press a little higher as well.

Keene Little : 3/21/2007 3:20:34 PM

Sticking with the DOW 30-min chart, we now have two possibilities from here: Link

The first is that this afternoon's high completes the A-B-C correction and it'll be all down hill from here. It will take a complete retracement of today's rally to confirm that possibility. The 2nd, short term bullish, possibility is that we've completed, or near completed, the 3rd wave in the move up from March 14th. The bullish wave count calls for a 4th wave correction over the next 2 days or so and then a final press higher into next week to finish the rally leg.

Jeff Bailey : 3/21/2007 3:16:56 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 3/21/2007 3:06:07 PM

I had a feeling we would head up to NDX 1800 gap.

Jeff Bailey : 3/21/2007 3:04:49 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Keene Little : 3/21/2007 3:02:43 PM

I'd say the bullish (green) wave count is the one playing out on this DOW 30-min chart I showed earlier. Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/21/2007 3:01:44 PM

Swamped with upside alerts I've had set.

Keene Little : 3/21/2007 3:00:45 PM

The top of the equivalent channel for the DOW is near 12480.

Keene Little : 3/21/2007 3:00:05 PM

The bulls are certainly not letting go of this (and the bears are running for cover. The top of the parallel up-channel for price action since March 14th is now being hit by SPX at 1435.

Jane Fox : 3/21/2007 2:59:27 PM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Treasurys rallied Wednesday, sending yields lower, after the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged as widely expected but omitted a crucial clause from its accompanying statement that was viewed as signaling a tightening bias.

Jeff Bailey : 3/21/2007 2:54:50 PM

iShares Japan (EWJ) $14.90 +1.36% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/21/2007 2:54:24 PM

USD/JPY 117.40 +0.12%

Keene Little : 3/21/2007 2:51:57 PM

If I use the high of the last bounce as the top of wave-A, then 162% projection for wave-C in the NYSE's A-B-C correction is at 9293 so just a touch higher. Link

Jane Fox : 3/21/2007 2:49:19 PM

ES's yearly open was 1446.25 and YM's is 12636 so those are still at +9.

Keene Little : 3/21/2007 2:47:20 PM

NYSE, which has been looking a little more bullish all day, has now reached, and is exceeding, the Fib target at 9273 where the 2nd leg up in its bounce is equal to 162% of the 1st leg up. This is a good place for the rally to fail but if it doesn't then it will certainly become more bullish. Link

Jane Fox : 3/21/2007 2:46:57 PM

ER's yearly open was 805.50 so ER is now reading a +10

Jeff Bailey : 3/21/2007 2:45:49 PM

and yes ... BIX.X 399.54 +1.88% ... back to see what, if anything is at 400.00.

Jeff Bailey : 3/21/2007 2:45:04 PM

US Oil Fund (USO) $48.62 +0.33% ... edges back above MONTHLY S1 ... Weekly Pivot ($48.76) just ahead. Looking for strength above MONTHLY 38.2% at $49.00.

Jane Fox : 3/21/2007 2:44:32 PM

After a FED announce you usually get a big move one way then another the other way before it finally decides which way it will go but today it is just up up and away.

Jeff Bailey : 3/21/2007 2:42:40 PM

Russell 2000 Index (RUT.X) 804.11 +1.32% ... breaks above its 19.1% retracement.

Jeff Bailey : 3/21/2007 2:42:01 PM

iShares Russell 2000 (AMEX:IWM) $79.95 +1.40% ... bold move above correlative 21-day and 50-day SMAs today.

Jeff Bailey : 3/21/2007 2:39:03 PM

Transocean Inc. (RIG) $79.99 +2.26% ... challenges 2-month resistance here.

Jeff Bailey : 3/21/2007 2:38:03 PM

XBD.X 237.80 +2.45% ... breaking free of its 38.2% retracement.

Keene Little : 3/21/2007 2:37:48 PM

Very often the post-FOMC move continues into the close so that means you need to be very careful about picking a top here. SPX and DOW have rallied up into some strong Fib resistance targets so I don't like the upside from here but shorting it could be difficult.

Jeff Bailey : 3/21/2007 2:37:03 PM

SPY April $135 Puts now most active from earlier in session. Was #7. CBOE has 5,139 traded, Dn/UpTick sqaured at 2,610:2,739

Jeff Bailey : 3/21/2007 2:34:39 PM

30-year Yield ($TYX.X) ... unchanged at 4.707% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/21/2007 2:33:45 PM

5-year YIELD ($FVX.X) has plunged ... down 3.8 bp to 4.432% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/21/2007 2:31:53 PM

Dow Chemical (DOW) $46.29 +1.53% ...

Jane Fox : 3/21/2007 2:30:44 PM

I guess it is quite clear as to which way that small trading zone broke isn't it? Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/21/2007 2:30:42 PM

SPY $142.34 +0.97% ... sticks its head above MONTHLY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 3/21/2007 2:29:56 PM

Caterpillar (CAT) $66.00 +1.75% ... today's trade at $66.00 is 3-box reversal.

Jeff Bailey : 3/21/2007 2:28:22 PM

FOMC's Press Release Link ...

Keene Little : 3/21/2007 2:25:09 PM

SPX has made it up to the Fib zone and its 50-dma at 1423 so it's vulnerable to topping right here. Otherwise we could see a strong short covering rally.

Jane Fox : 3/21/2007 2:25:06 PM

I am very sorry about my comment on the bonds. I have changed my subscription and they are on a 20 minute delay DUH!!!

Keene Little : 3/21/2007 2:18:02 PM

Got a very positive initial response out of equities (and bonds) and that has now spiked the DOW above the top of its ascending wedge. It's possible this could turn into a throw-over move to finish its upside count. Think about the short side here but be very careful.

Jane Fox : 3/21/2007 2:17:13 PM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The Federal Reserve held its benchmark interest rate steady Wednesday, saying its "predominant policy concern remains the risk that inflation will fail to moderate as expected."

In its statement, the Federal Open Market Committee acknowledged recent data showing both higher inflation and a weaker economy.

In its statement released at the conclusion of their two-day meeting, the FOMC no longer said that indicators have suggested "somewhat firmer economic growth" as they did in comments issued at the conclusion of their January meeting. nstead, the Fed said recent indicators had been "mixed."

And instead of saying they saw "some tentative signs of stabilization" in the housing markets, the committee said "the adjustment in the housing sector is ongoing."

Jane Fox : 3/21/2007 2:15:46 PM

Let the games begin!

Keene Little : 3/21/2007 2:11:06 PM

Bulls really don't want this rallying into FOMC. That's not usually a good setup for a post-FOMC rally. But I do remember not long ago that it in fact did lead to one so there really is not telling. Let the dust settle.

Jane Fox : 3/21/2007 2:05:41 PM

Opps looks like only ER is falling the others seem to be holding up OK.

Jane Fox : 3/21/2007 2:05:06 PM

Prices falling just before the announcement. HMMM wonder if someone knows something.

Jeff Bailey : 3/21/2007 1:59:00 PM

USD/JPY 117.85 +0.49% ...

Keene Little : 3/21/2007 1:57:57 PM

If you want a good reading on what the Fed says, keep an eye on the bonds (or yieds). A drop in bonds (rise in rates) will say the Fed has remained hawkish on inflation and the stock market can kiss off any chance of a rate decrease), and vice versa. Just remember that the bond market gets just as wild, if not more so, right after the announcement.

Jane Fox : 3/21/2007 1:46:41 PM

Internals are bullish and ER is above its resistance at 800.80 so reading a +9 now. Safe to go back in the water? Not yet the FOMC announcement is at 2:15 and I am certainly not trading this close to that announcement. I may have to throw in the towel for the rest of the day. Link

Keene Little : 3/21/2007 1:45:33 PM

I've noticed the Market Monitor cycling in and out over the past several days (I'm on the browser version) so if you suddenly lose it, go back to the main page and select the MM again.

Keene Little : 3/21/2007 1:42:19 PM

If this rallies into FOMC then I wouldn't be looking to be buying any pullback. A rally into FOMC stands a greater chance of getting sold off hard.

Marc Eckelberry : 3/21/2007 1:28:19 PM

You should alway place your stop at another point from where everyone else does, in other words farther away or much closer, but NEVER with the crowd. You will get stopped out all day long and watch it reverse right before your eyes. How many times have you heard the word "overthrow'? Or "they just had to nail those stops"? Why do you want to be a victim? A pro trader waits for the bounce from the obvious stop zone to exit, because he knows that is exactly what happens when a million stops get hit.

Keene Little : 3/21/2007 1:28:07 PM

Marc, I completely agree with you (1:24).

Keene Little : 3/21/2007 1:26:59 PM

SPX is working its way higher while the others remain pretty much flat. This makes it a little more difficult to figure out the short term pattern but for now I'm going to go off the DOW's pattern as it makes the most sense to me right here. This 15-min chart zooms in on price action for what I believe is a small 4th wave correction in the ascending wedge that I showed on the 30-min chart (12:58): Link

The sideways triangle pattern, if it pulls back from here, needs another leg down as wave-e of the pattern. Very often these e-waves spike down (in this case) on a news related move. Can you think of any news that is coming up soon? So if price spikes down and holds pretty much at today's lows, I'd be a buyer for a scalp long for a move up to the 12350 area. If it plays out that way we'll then want to look for our short entry, possibly as early as this afternoon but more likely tomorrow morning.

Jeff Bailey : 3/21/2007 1:23:47 PM

Always use a stop. Set it where you DON'T think the security should trade, where if it does, your analysis might be wrong.

Marc Eckelberry : 3/21/2007 1:24:40 PM

By the way, for those that think Cramer's behavior is symptomatic of the hedge fund industry, I disagree. I know quite a few fund managers and they do not play these games. They don;t need to, they are good at what they do. The kind of tactics Cramer talks about are only performed by a minority of sleazy funds and that is why I think Cramer deserves to be slapped around. No only that, he's a lousy stock picker. His wife did all the stock picks when he ran the fund. He keeps telling everyone he is the champion of the little guy, well, it's the little guy that got hurt by his antics.

Jeff Bailey : 3/21/2007 1:22:02 PM

01:05 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/21/2007 1:07:17 PM

01:05 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/21/2007 1:03:25 PM

Not heavy, but sure is a lot of call buying and put selling across the CAT option montage from April-November.

Jeff Bailey : 3/21/2007 1:00:57 PM

I'm going to be out of the office from 4/16 to 4/22, which is April's option expiration. Contemplating what to do with those CAT $70 Covered Calls.

Keene Little : 3/21/2007 12:58:46 PM

Similar to the SPX 30-min chart I posted earlier this morning (10:01) I'd like to see another push higher to complete the wave count in its ascending wedge: Link

By the bearish wave count I'm looking for the DOW to push marginally above the top of its wedge and the previous high on March 12th, so maybe up to around 12350 before starting the next leg down. But if the bulls get carried away, or the shorts run for cover, then we could see the DOW push up towards a 50% retracement at 12420 or even higher to the top of a parallel up-channel near a 62% retracement at 12509.

Jeff Bailey : 3/21/2007 12:58:38 PM

200-day SMA Alert! ... Caterpillar (CAT) $65.65 +1.20% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/21/2007 12:57:25 PM

CBOE's most active puts from Tuesday Link

Marc Eckelberry : 3/21/2007 12:56:57 PM

The stop is the most widely misunderstood tool of traders. They always put them where everybody else does and wonder why they can make a living trading.

Jeff Bailey : 3/21/2007 12:56:41 PM

CBOE's most active calls from Tuesday Link

Jane Fox : 3/21/2007 12:56:17 PM

WASHINGTON, March 21 - A House Judiciary subcommittee today authorized subpoenas for Karl Rove, President Bush's political adviser, and other senior White House officials in the investigation into the firing of eight United States attorneys.

Democrats said the subpoenas, approved on a voice vote of the panel, would not be issued immediately but could provide leverage for Congress in trying to win the testimony of the aides being sought.

"We have worked toward voluntary cooperation on this investigation, but we must prepare for the possibility that the Justice Department and White House will continue to hide the truth," said Representative Linda Sanchez of California, chairwoman of the subcommittee on commercial and administrative law. Republicans on the subcommittee said they did not dispute the power of Congress to call the officials, but said the action was premature and smacked of politics.

Marc Eckelberry : 3/21/2007 12:49:16 PM

The boyz are the biggest proponents of traders using stops, because they know they can wipe you out that way. I know it is sacrilege, but if I truly believe in a trade, I will use a very wide stop to avoid the games. You would be surprised how effective it is since most of the time, stocks are in a range. Just learn how to book profits. Go back in your trade records and you will see how many times you have lost $200 per contract in a day from just being stopped several times, when in fact, just having a wide enough stop would have put in the SAME risk and kept you in for a profit.

Jeff Bailey : 3/21/2007 12:48:57 PM

I'd use the Forex survey only as a "what to monitor for," or a test for the future.

Jeff Bailey : 3/21/2007 12:47:08 PM

Forex Survey: Dollar's Woes vs. Yen Seen Worsening

DJ- The dollar's recent troubles against the yen are likely to worsen over the next 12 months as the economies of Japan and the U.S. trend in opposite directions.

Against the euro, the dollar is also likely to stumble in the spring and summer of 2007, but then stage a comeback moving into 2008 on the chance of a U.S. economic turnaround, according to a Dow Jones Newswires survey of 14 major foreign exchange institutions.

The survey, conducted this week, shows the dollar steadily declining against the yen, dropping more than 4% over the next 12 months. Against the euro, the dollar is likely to dip a bit over the next three months. But a year from now, it is likely to reverse, resting about 2% higher from where it was Wednesday.

The median estimate of the institutions see the dollar at Y116 by the end of June and Y114 at the end of the year. Twelve months from now, look for the dollar to trade at Y112.50, according to the survey.

Meanwhile, the euro is likely to edge higher to $1.34 at the end of June, and then slip to $1.3350 at the end of the year and $1.3050 about 12 months from now.

Yen Up

Surprisingly, the dollar's expected declines against the yen are less drastic than estimates in a similar survey done in early December, despite the greenback's precipitous fall in late February amid a fall in global stocks worldwide that sparked fears of a broad economic slowdown.

Three months ago, when the yen was trading at around Y116, analysts said the Japanese currency would end this year at Y110; now, with the yen pushing Y118 - after a solid rebound from its sharp fall in late February - the consensus is for a year-end rate of Y114. Andrew Busch, global market strategist at BMO Capital Markets, said the U.S. economic slowdown is a big part of expectations for dollar weakness against the yen. He named problems in the U.S. housing sector, especially subprime mortgage weakness, and said it's still not clear what effect this would have on the overall economy. But yen strength will also come from Japan itself, where personal consumption is ticking up, a healthy bit of inflation is returning after some years with deflation, and interest rates could be going up, Busch said. While the Federal Reserve has left its interest rates on hold since last summer, the Bank of Japan has hiked rates twice during that period, with its key lending rate now at 0.50%. "What you have is two economies that look like they're going in slightly opposite directions," Busch said. If the consensus forecast for the dollar against the yen is correct, then carry trade investors beware. With an expected 4% decline in the dollar over 12 months, this would essentially wipe out the interest rate differential gained by borrowing yen at low interest rates around 0.50% and buying dollars that earn rates near the Fed's 5.25% level. Euro-Dollar Outlook Static Forecasts for the euro against the dollar have changed little during the past three months, perhaps because the rate of exchange itself has changed little in this period. The euro was at around $1.32 when Dow Jones conducted its previous survey in December; it's at $1.33 now, and the trading band has stayed in a narrow range between around $1.29 and $1.33 during the time in between. While economists' expectations vary, the general consensus remains that the U.S. economy has slowed but so far there's little evidence to suggest a recession is likely. Mitul Kotecha, head of global currency research at Calyon Corporate and Investment Bank in London, said he expects U.S. economic conditions to improve later in the year, at a time when the European Central Bank may move toward an on-hold policy after at least one more hike this year, to 4%. But he added: "Clearly things can change, and if the ECB may become more hawkish, we may have to revise forecasts."

Jane Fox : 3/21/2007 12:38:45 PM

My little number system is telling me ER is at +5 (or -5 however you want to look at it) and it is not a time to be trading and that little piece of information, up and above the internals, as served me well today. Yesterday ER was a +9 and telling me to stay on the long side, which also served me well.

Jane Fox : 3/21/2007 12:36:19 PM

I swore off buying stocks ages ago because of the kind of stuff of which Cramer is talking. It is also why I like the futures (although I know they are affected as well) and the ETFs like USO and GLD, which are based on the price of an underlying commodity.

Jeff Bailey : 3/21/2007 12:33:51 PM

ES DnTickVol/UpTickVol 29:20 ... just about offsetting SPY

Keene Little : 3/21/2007 12:32:39 PM

Hey Guys: Get off Cramer's back. You been talking about the boyz for a long time now........?????????????? Frances

You're right Frances, I feel bad for picking on Cramer. NOT!! As Marc, had stated, Cramer is a sleazeball but at least he's honest about it. All the others do it but talk a good game to keep the sheeple buying, or selling, at the wrong times.

Jeff Bailey : 3/21/2007 12:27:06 PM

Look at an option chain every now and then, see what's going on.

If YOU were big enough to push RIMM around, wouldn't you buy some puts/calls to benefit on that pending move of YOUR manipulation?

Sure you would!

And there's NOTHING illegal about it.

What is illegal is is somebody within a company, giving YOU specific bullish/bearish information that the public doesn't have, and YOU acting on it.

Marc Eckelberry : 3/21/2007 12:22:26 PM

That would be NQ 1821/1850.

Keene Little : 3/21/2007 12:22:00 PM

While we watch hair grow, would you please tell where on QCharts I can best view Volume?

Yes, this is worse than watching hair grow on my head (since there is none). I'll assume you mean volume for the particular symbol you're watching. Just right click on the chart, select Studies and then Volume. Voila, it appears as one of the studies at the bottom of the chart.

If you mean volume such as total trading volume, there are several symbols that QCharts uses. For example, total market volume is TVOL. For the NYSE it's TVOL.NY, for NDX it's TVOL.NQ. Similarly you can get up and down volume for each (UPVOL, DNVOL). Go to their market breadth help section and you'll see they have an abundance of these kinds of symbols.

Jeff Bailey : 3/21/2007 12:21:56 PM

Excellent interview with Mr. Cramer (see Marc and Keene's postings) ... Traders should understand the "rules of the game" and have an idea of how to play along.

Manipulation? Yes! But remember, manipulation can come with a price.

A hedge fund may be able to push a stock around, but when the MARKET figures out the INCORRECT manipulation and begins inflicting pain, the "manipulator" will turn on a dime to try and cut his/her losses.

Jeff Bailey : 3/21/2007 12:18:52 PM

SPY Options Chain sorted by CBOE most active at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 3/21/2007 12:20:27 PM

The risk to bulls is that the VIX is now in the lower bands. I would love to see an equity spike up to Feb gaps and enter a short. Patience is a virtue and never so much so than today. I have been waiting for a rally up to the gap, let's hope it comes (NDX 1801.87 open, close 1830, it's a monster).

Jeff Bailey : 3/21/2007 12:12:30 PM

SPY's April $141 Puts (SFB-PK) have now risen to #1 most active on CBOE. Was #3 when first looked at 11:51:36. DnTick/Uptick Vol 1,620:740 now.

VIX.X 13.56

Keene Little : 3/21/2007 12:11:41 PM

The two charts I posted in last night's Wrap, for those who don't get that (or read it, wink), show why I'm thinking rates will rise. The first is the weekly chart that shows a bearish ascending wedge that ideally needs another leg up to finish the pattern: Link

The daily chart shows a closer view of "price" action around its uptrend lines. Any break below 4.4% would say rates are heading much lower now (possibly due to a Fed rate cut or a softening on their inflation stance). Link

I show the potential for rates to rise to only 5% (instead of 5.5% that I show on the weekly chart) but that won't be clear until rates get there (assuming of course they get there).

Marc Eckelberry : 3/21/2007 12:07:23 PM

Bernanke will tone down his rhetoric and throw in an excuse to lower rates in the future, i.e mention housing. He might even say that inflation is contained, although that's not a given. In any case, the tone should be softer. He knows a stock market crash is right around the corner.

Marc Eckelberry : 3/21/2007 12:04:11 PM

Betting against NDX moving up to 1800, Feb gap open, is a risky proposition, if you ask me. Whether we reverse or not, we could see a spike to that zone if NQ breaks out above 1797.75, 50% 2007. That is 40 NQ points higher from here.

Keene Little : 3/21/2007 12:01:58 PM

Marc, the flip side to your argument, which has a lot of merit, is that Bernanke will want to talk bond rates higher so that he doesn't have to raise rates to fight inflation. He has stated numerous times in the past that he's willing to sacrifice employment and a slowing economy in order to contain inflation. If he can scare the bond market into thinking the Fed may have to raise rates in the future, just by keeping the language exactly the same as before, then the bond market, and equities, could tank on that.

Keene Little : 3/21/2007 11:57:59 AM

CME still leaves me hanging here, just as price is barely hanging onto its uptrend line from August 2005. It could go either way here but if forced to bet I would bet on the short side (and put my stop at a new high for the current bounce, so around 537). Daily: Link 120-min: Link

Marc Eckelberry : 3/21/2007 11:54:05 AM

I am very sure that Bernanke knows that tough language on inflation will mean a stock market collapse and further consumer loss of confidence. It is highly unlikely that the Feds will want that to happen, regardless of CPI data last week.

Jeff Bailey : 3/21/2007 11:52:05 AM

Another "bear gulp" when looking at SPY current UpTick/DnTickVol ... about 3.4:1.8

Has the "look" that MONTHLY Pivot is in play.

Marc Eckelberry : 3/21/2007 11:51:43 AM

NQ (NDX) and YG (gold) hang on to their 20 DMA's. If I had to venture a guess, it would be a softening of the Fed language and a spike up in equities and gold. If that should occur, equities at some point would start worrying about the economy and could reverse. Gold, on the other hand, would hold on to the benefit, as long as oil does not drop below 59.30 for too long. Lower rates mean more risk of inflation while weakening the dollar. The perfect storm for a gold spike. On the other hand, should Feds stay tough, both equities and gold will drop.

Jeff Bailey : 3/21/2007 11:47:36 AM

VIX.X 13.55 +2.11% .... creeping off of its WEEKLY S1.

What does a higher vix equate to? Yes! More put buyers/call seller than put sellers/call buyers.

What's today's most active SPY option?

Jeff Bailey : 3/21/2007 11:45:21 AM

Now ... the SPY $141.01 +0.02% ... sits right at its WEEKLY R1.

Looking at the NYSE NH/NL ratio chart, I could easily assess UPSIDE to SPY MONTHLY Pivot of 142.12 over next 5-days or so.

Downside trigger would be anything below a WEEKLY Pivot, with a MONTHLY S2 support.

Keene Little : 3/21/2007 11:43:56 AM

Still like the GOOG puts here ( April 420), thinking of buying some more at $ 4.40??

Yep. This is an update to yesterday's daily chart to give a broader view of its pattern and current down-channel, the top of which is just under 454: Link Bearishly, this stock is perched on the edge of a very high cliff right here, if the bearish wave count plays out. As the 120-min chart shows, price is again testing the broken uptrend line from April 2004: Link

I'd use just above 455 for a stop on this one--that keeps it above gap closure from March 13th (454.80) and the downtrend line from February 1st. I see a lot of downside potential on this one and a nice close stop. My kind of setup.

Jeff Bailey : 3/21/2007 11:39:34 AM

NYSE NH/NL Ratio Chart at this Link

"f"ive day and 10-day (X,O)

In yellow would be the 11:15 AM measures charted.

The "bear gulp" comes as the 5-day NH/NL ratio gets a "buy signal."

OK, now see where the 5-day NH/NL ratio is? It has gotten right back up to where the 10-day NH/NL ratio gave its "sell signal."

This is an important interpretation point.

Just as we tried to sell an out the money S&P put last week (missed it by about $0.10 on the option) as the NYSE's 10-day NH/NL ratio fell back to where it had last given that "buy signal" at 68%, what a BEAR needs to see happen is for the NYSE 5-day NH/NL ratio make a reversal back lower in the next couple of days.

Jeff Bailey : 3/21/2007 11:30:29 AM

11:15 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/21/2007 11:24:55 AM

"Bear gulp" on the NYSE 5-day NH/NL ratio.

Jeff Bailey : 3/21/2007 11:18:25 AM

11:15 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/21/2007 11:12:03 AM

Frontier Oil (FTO) $32.44 +0.15% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/21/2007 11:11:14 AM

Valero Energy (VLO) $61.47 -0.21% ... data looks "fine" for refiners. Biggest threat for bull near-term would be RISING oil prices. Good refiners probably hedging some bets and locking in crack spreads though.

Jeff Bailey : 3/21/2007 11:08:47 AM

EIA: SPR Stockpile unchanged.

Jeff Bailey : 3/21/2007 11:08:02 AM

EIA: Weekly Heating Oil Stockpiles down 333,000 barrels.

Becomes less of a factor as winter passes.

Jeff Bailey : 3/21/2007 11:06:48 AM

EIA: Weekly Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel Stockpiles down 373,000 barrels.

Jeff Bailey : 3/21/2007 11:05:18 AM

EIA: Weekly ULS Diesel Stockpiles down 1.22 million barrels.

Jeff Bailey : 3/21/2007 11:04:05 AM

EIA: Weekly Total Distillate Stockpiles down 1.71 million barrels.

Jeff Bailey : 3/21/2007 11:02:08 AM

EIA: Weekly Reformulated Gasoline Stockpiles up 174,000 barrels to 1.05 million barrels.

Jeff Bailey : 3/21/2007 11:01:10 AM

EIA: Weekly Total Gasoline Stockpiles were down 3.45 million barrels.

Jeff Bailey : 3/21/2007 10:57:48 AM

To be honest, the Percent Utilization figures are what an oil bull wants to see, but I was surprised by the 3.92 million barrel stockpile.

No need in my opinion to be more than 1/2 positions for at least another week. Keep that capital (what would be a full) for other opportunities.

Jane Fox : 3/21/2007 10:56:19 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Cheniere Energy Partners LP priced at the top of its range and then rose 4% in its stock market debut Wednesday as Wall Street welcomed the chance to invest in a new liquid natural gas terminal off the Gulf Coast.

Cheniere Energy Partners (CQP) priced 13.5 million shares at $21 a share in a bid to raise $284 million. The IPO opened at $22 and changed hands at $21.85 in morning action on the American Stock Exchange.

The unit of Cheniere Energy Inc. (LNG) priced at the top of its $19-$21 range with underwriters Citigroup Global Markets Inc., Merrill Lynch and Credit Suisse Securities (USA).

The IPO met with success just days after PhotoWatt Technologies, a maker of solar energy equipment, postponed its deal as Wall Street grew fickle with alternative energy and cast its gaze back at fossil fuels.

Keene Little : 3/21/2007 10:55:52 AM

thanks for your insight on the monitor, i really enjoy following the updates through the day. i am sitting this morning with a ton of april and may in the money puts....have sold several since the market started back up...my question is how would you play this?...sell covered or sell the puts...i'm still in the black for the remaining position but can see this slipping away...i know i have time and i agree with you about the retest of the lows ie 134 on spy...but it's all about the timing...thanks in advance bobby

Of the several trader friends with whom I'm in daily contact, this is the number one question right now, especially those who are short. The bounce off the March 14th low should be the leg that completes the correction to the decline from February, and it should be very close to completion as I've been showing in my charts. Whether it tops out today near SPX 1418 or next Monday at 1428 can't be known for sure.

It could of course continue to rally to new al-time highs but as you know that's not what I'm expecting. So, if it were me with all those ITM puts I'd sit tight. I wouldn't let them turn into a loss so your stop loss decision should be easy--never ever let a winner turn into a loser, never. I think it's too late to sell puts under (or above) your long puts because we should be very close to tipping back over.

You're in a can't lose position--hold on and let those long puts work for you. But don't let them turn into losers! If you get stopped out then just reenter once the decline kicks back into gear (buy yourself some extra time, like June). You'll have plenty of time to take chunks out of the middle if I'm correct about what's coming.

Jeff Bailey : 3/21/2007 10:55:38 AM

US Oil Fund (USO) $48.34 -0.24% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/21/2007 10:54:33 AM

EIA: Weekly Percent Utilization of Refinery Op. Capacity rose to 86.34% from prior week's 85.60%.

Some capacity starting to be utilized again.

Jeff Bailey : 3/21/2007 10:52:56 AM

EIA: Weekly Refinery Op. Capacity was unchanged at 17.4 million barrels/day.

Jeff Bailey : 3/21/2007 10:50:31 AM

EIA: Weekly Crude Oil Inputs into Refineries rose by 197,000 barrels/day to 14.78 million barrels/day.

Jeff Bailey : 3/21/2007 10:48:36 AM

My # Days of Supply rises to 22.02 from last week's 21.83.

Jeff Bailey : 3/21/2007 10:51:48 AM

EIA: Gross Inputs Into Refineries up 129,000 barrels/day to 15.02 million barrels/day.

Jeff Bailey : 3/21/2007 10:45:46 AM

EIA: Weekly Crude Oil Stockpiles up 3.9 million barrels.

Jane Fox : 3/21/2007 10:45:29 AM

And this chart of the US $ completes the bullish picture in Gold. Link

Jane Fox : 3/21/2007 10:44:26 AM

Now I need Crude to get going and break its resistance as well. Link

Jane Fox : 3/21/2007 10:43:34 AM

Gold is breaking out over its resistance. Link

Keene Little : 3/21/2007 10:40:46 AM

Right after posting the update on silver it's starting to drop. I'd have my stop just above today's high at 13.441 and just let it ride now. Same with gold--have your stop just above today's high at 662.90. Tight stop in case it's only consolidating here.

Keene Little : 3/21/2007 10:36:37 AM

As one who shorted silver yesterday I'm not real excited by its consolidation pattern since yesterday's high. It's forming a sideways triangle and fits as a possible 4th wave correction. This suggests another, and final, push to a new high is coming. Unless it breaks down now I'm going to bail with a push back above 13.44 and then watch for a reentry. Gold may be doing the same thing. It might only make a quick and minor new high so the risk is jumping out and then missing the high. Keep a close eye on it if you're in the trade or looking to get short.

Jane Fox : 3/21/2007 10:36:34 AM

Then out of the blue TICKS +800

Jeff Bailey : 3/21/2007 10:26:19 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

Jane Fox : 3/21/2007 10:25:15 AM

Hopefully you are not trying to trade this.

Jeff Bailey : 3/21/2007 10:22:38 AM

I was looking for something north of 410.60 for the purchases, say 420. Refinances about right. I don't see anything overly "shocking" based on all that has taken place the last several weeks.

Jane Fox : 3/21/2007 10:21:25 AM

ER's 800.80 is it daily open and its PDH and 801.10 is its daily high. Do you think we have a resistance zone here?

Jeff Bailey : 3/21/2007 10:18:51 AM

MBA's Weekly Application Table with DJUSHB benchmarks at this Link

Jane Fox : 3/21/2007 10:18:37 AM

ER makes a stab at its daily high which just happens to be its PDH as well but the three large caps markets are quite a ways from their respective daily highs/PDHs.

Jane Fox : 3/21/2007 10:10:51 AM

TICKS +800 but I wouldn't be putting my money on the line just yet.

Jeff Bailey : 3/21/2007 10:10:16 AM

MBA's Weekly Application Survey found at this Link

Jane Fox : 3/21/2007 10:04:29 AM

We are still in no man's land with the internals and my number system and we could be here all day. Could be a lonnnngggg day.

Jeff Bailey : 3/21/2007 10:03:00 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Keene Little : 3/21/2007 10:01:13 AM

From an EW perspective here's how I'd like to see price play out today on SPX. A pullback this morning followed by a rally to a new high that gives us a throw-over above its ascending wedge, at or near its 50% retracement near 1418. This kind of finish would be just about picture perfect for an ending to the correction and set up the next big decline. Link

Keene Little : 3/21/2007 9:52:27 AM

The DOW is still dancing on top of the trend line along recent highs so if support continues to hold, or if the pullback is very choppy, then the short side may not work. The long side may not work either if we're just going to go sideways. Link

Jane Fox : 3/21/2007 9:51:11 AM

YM's daily open is at 12377 but its monthly open is at 12362 so below 12362 you have a reading of -7 or +3 and a much better market to be thinking short if you are so inclined.

Keene Little : 3/21/2007 9:45:26 AM

Both the NDX and RUT continue to stay inside their little ascending wedges. They should have broken them by now to be legitimate patterns but I still find it interesting that they're getting squeezed into the apex of their triangles. I could be tempted to short a breakdown from these. RUT: Link and NDX: Link

Jane Fox : 3/21/2007 9:44:22 AM

I see the AD volume making new daily highs now but with the AD line at +215 it is hard to think about a trade - yet

Jane Fox : 3/21/2007 9:40:47 AM

Knowing when to trade and when not to trade is as valuable and maybe even more so than which side to be on.

Jane Fox : 3/21/2007 9:40:02 AM

OF course you always need to check in with the VIX and TRIN and see if they are telling you anything. VIX is hovering at it PDL and TRIN is at a mid point to its PDR. So the VIX is a tad bullish but not enough to think about a trade.

Jane Fox : 3/21/2007 9:38:20 AM

AD line is a neutral +154 and AD volume is virtually at 0. So put these two together (the numbers I presented earlier and the internals) and you have a very clear picture of your "No trading Zone."

Keene Little : 3/21/2007 9:36:42 AM

Bonds have sold off from yesterday which suggests they don't believe the Fed will change anything, including their wording. Without a relaxing in the hawkish stance on inflation, even a hint of it, the stock market will probably throw a little hissy fit.

Jane Fox : 3/21/2007 9:32:37 AM

ER opens at 800.80 so according to the forumla I presented yesterday, ER has a +9 above 800.80 and +6 below.

Jane Fox : 3/21/2007 9:29:36 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- A surge in trading by Morgan Stanley's clients, along with the firm's own growing willingness to put more resources to work, helped drive first-quarter profit growth of 70%, financial results showed Wednesday.

"This strong performance was in large part the result of effective, disciplined risk-taking by our team in institutional securities, which helped deliver record results across our sales and trading businesses," CEO John Mack said in a press release.

Morgan Stanley (MS) , the last of four big Wall Street banks to report results for the first quarter that ended in February, said that profit rose 70% to $2.67 billion, or $2.51 a share, compared to $1.57 billion, or $1.48 a share, earned in the same period a year ago.

Revenue in the latest quarter rose to $11 billion, from $8.55 billion a year ago. The company said favorable mortgage positions helped trading results in the quarter.

Keene Little : 3/21/2007 9:28:38 AM

Equity futures had a tame overnight session and I have a feeling we're going to get the same this morning.

I see gold bounced back up and tagged the Fib area I had mentioned yesterday (662.30- 663.80, with an overnight high of 662.90) as the reason I like a short play here. It's dropped back a little already but it's still a good play and I'd have my stop now around 664-665. It's a nice small risk play.

Jane Fox : 3/21/2007 9:25:44 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The Federal Reserve will hold interest rates steady in light of "unusual" simultaneous signals of both higher inflation and slower growth in coming months, said Robert McTeer, former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.

"There are people calling for ease and people calling for tightening, and both sides can make a reasonably good case. So I think that's going to freeze them in place," McTeer said in an interview with MarketWatch on Tuesday evening.

The policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee, which ends its two-day meeting Wednesday, has held the federal funds target rate steady at 5.25% at each of its last five meetings. The FOMC will release a statement on the economy and monetary policy at roughly 2:15 p.m. Eastern

Jane Fox : 3/21/2007 9:23:20 AM

Dateline Business Week - Oil prices climbed Wednesday amid expectations that the weekly U.S. oil inventory snapshot will show a drop in domestic supplies of gasoline and distillates such as heating oil.

Gasoline prices have risen lately as traders anticipated an increase in gasoline demand in the approaching U.S. summer driving season, coupled with low stocks amid refinery outages in the United States, the world's largest oil consumer.

"Even though the official start is still two months away, (gasoline) prices hit a seven-month high (Monday). Gasoline inventories have fallen about 6 percent since early February, and are expected to fall further," said John Kilduff of Fimat USA, in a note to clients.

Light, sweet crude for May delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange gained 41 cents to $59.66 a barrel in electronic trading by midday in Europe. Brent crude contract for May delivery rose 44 cents to $60.64 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange in London.

Jane Fox : 3/21/2007 9:20:31 AM

Gold is falling a bit in sync with the US $'s climb but oil is also moving upward which is helping to stabilize Gold. Gold is a very complicated market to chart because of the influence the $ and oil have on it. Link

Jane Fox : 3/21/2007 9:14:35 AM

Consolidating at overnight highs and PDHs tell me we will see higher highs just like yesterday but the wild card today at 2:15 will make all predictions just a little more difficult. However you look at it though when the overnight session holds on to the gains from the previous day it is bullish. Link

Keene Little : 3/21/2007 9:12:31 AM

Marc and I have now posted the same link to that interview with Cramer that "tells all" (can be seen on YouTube). It seems to be making the rounds and now it's getting reported in the more mainstream press. Could be some interesting developments if some people start to take this seriously about what is happening in the hedge fund world. Stricter controls over hedge funds will definitely happen after a serious stock market correction as people start to look for who they can blame. Yesterday's NY Times article in the business section: Link

Jane Fox : 3/21/2007 9:06:52 AM

Dateline WSJ - Morgan Stanley's fiscal first-quarter net income surged 70% amid a $109 million divestiture gain as the brokerage benefited from higher trading volumes.

The New York investment bank's earnings rose to $2.67 billion, or $2.51 a share, compared with $1.57 billion, or $1.48 a share, a year earlier. Revenue for the quarter ended Feb. 28 increased 29% to $11 billion. The 11 cents a share gain involved the sale of Quilter Holdings.

Analysts polled by Thomson Financial expected, on average, earnings of $1.88 a share on revenue of $9.42 billion. Those numbers had been raised recently.

In premarket trading, shares of Morgan Stanley rose to $78.28 from Tuesday's closing price of $76.11.

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