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Keene Little : 3/27/2007 12:48:18 AM

Roadmap updates:
The 4 primary indices I'm tracking look similar at this point. As shown in the DOW 60-min chart I see two possibilities for tomorrow. Ironically the bulls will want to see a pullback and the bears will want to see a rally: Link

The wave pattern in the move up from March 12th would look best with a minor high to complete a 5-wave move, as labeled in dark red, which will then be in need of a deeper pullback correction at a minimum, hence the reason the bears will want this scenario to play out since more bearishly the market could then be set up for the next large decline. But if we get a pullback first, to something a little deeper than Monday's low, it could then be set up for a big rally leg after that.

But assuming for now that we'll finish the push up that started from Monday's low, there will be two Fib targets to keep an eye on--12521 where the 5th wave = 62% of the 1st wave and then 12615 where there will be equality between the 1st and 5th waves. That's quite a wide spread so watch the up-channel shown on the 10-min chart for some guidance: Link

As long as the DOW stays within this little channel then stay on the long side. But once it breaks down, especially if it has tagged that 12521 level, then that could be a good signal to get short. Ideally we'll get a push up to the 12521 area by mid day on Tuesday, with some bearish divergences, for our first set up to try the short side from there.

The SPX 60 and 10-min charts show a very similar setup. The upside Fib projections are 1442 and then 1455. The interesting thing about the 1442 projection (5th wave = 62% of 1st) is that it's right on top of the 78.6% retracement of the decline from the February high. Link and Link

The NDX 60-min chart shows price has already exceeded the first Fib projection and since that one was below last week's high, it's the next projection at 1812.61 (where there would be equality between the 1st and 5th waves) that has good potential for a high in this index. Link

Like the DOW and SPX setup, a pullback first that gets back below Monday's low would actually be potentially bullish in setting up another rally leg. It's the same setup for the RUT. Link The first Fib projection for the RUT is near 816 but just a bit higher is its broken uptrend line from August, currently near 817.50. Retesting and failing at that trend line would be a great short play--keep your stop relatively tight right above it. The upside Fib projection is 823.68, right at gap close from February 27th at 823.79.

Keene Little : 3/27/2007 12:26:26 AM

Tuesday's pivot tables: Link and Link

Tab Gilles : 3/27/2007 12:12:45 AM

Let's take a look at the oil stocks, nearing resistance on some of the charts. $WTIC USO XLE OIH XOM VLO Link Link Link Link Link Link Link Note the Doji candle on some of those daily charts?

OIH weekly Watch that $150 level, could get a break out here and retest highs. Link

$WTIC The 40 week ma had been a point to buy-the-dip...is it now sell the rally? Link Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/26/2007 11:15:01 PM

SPY Option Chain sorted by CBOE Volume only Link

Analysis: Nothing overly "directional." Slight bearish bias to $141.

Notable DnTick vs. UpTick Vol on Apr $142 Put, then perhaps "protective" buying of Apr $140 Put

Jeff Bailey : 3/26/2007 11:02:00 PM

Today's most active SPY options on the CBOE were put, put, put, put, put.

Jeff Bailey : 3/26/2007 10:51:21 PM

Follow up ... Dorsey/Wright's S&P-100 Bullish $ (BPOEX) also sees a net gain of 2 stocks to reversing higher PnF buy signals. "Bull confirmed" at 74.00%.

GS @ $212 and MEDI @ $35.

Jeff Bailey : 3/26/2007 10:47:21 PM

Follow up ... Dorsey/Wright's NASDAQ-100 Bullish % (BPNDX) also sees a net gain of 2 stocks to reversing higher Pnf buy signals. "Bull correction" at 61%.

LRCX and MEDI

OI Technical Staff : 3/26/2007 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Marc Eckelberry : 3/26/2007 9:22:13 PM

Hi Marc, Hope all is well. I took your recommendation to buy YG April @ 639 and rode it to 660. Nice call, especially on a 20 lot....hah. I re-entered YG June @ 663.50 today (10 lot) and am wondering where a good stop level should be placed? I'm thinking 660, but I put it in @ 659.25 to be safe. I'd like your thoughts on this as I'm afraid I might have put it in too low.
Thanks, Dan

Good move Dan. Quick math, you made $27,000 on that trade. Not only that, you made a perfect re-entry on the June contract (you're up $2300 there). I would put my stop at 663, a little over a point below 50 DMA support. Targets on the trade are 675, 686.60 and 694, if we breakout above 675 (Feb gap open). If you are trading multiple contracts, take some off at each resistance level. Consumer confidence tomorrow will dictate further gains. As you now, I am expecting 850 by the summer, but that might be too wild for some. (I think 750 is very, very likely). I think oil will go out the roof on a major hurricane season (80+). Global warming is going to be freaky.
For now, 663/664 must hold (June contract, for April that would be 657/658). Looks like you have a free ride.
Marc.

Jeff Bailey : 3/26/2007 6:33:04 PM

Relative Strength of AAPL vs. QQQQ Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/26/2007 6:32:00 PM

Relative Strength of AAPL vs. $SPX Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/26/2007 6:28:24 PM

The "squeeze" may be on.

Jeff Bailey : 3/26/2007 6:27:21 PM

Oh my! ... AAPL $95.85 +2.49% Link ... breaks its "right shoulder" of h/s top mentioned by somebody last week. Bar chart Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/26/2007 6:23:17 PM

MedImmune (MEDI) $34.61 +1.46% Link ... Another NASDAQ-100 component giving a reversing higher PnF buy signal at $35.00.

This could be it, or there could have been 5 reversing higher PnF buy signal, and 3 reversing lower PnF sell signals (5 - 3 = +2), but demand looks to be firming.

Jeff Bailey : 3/26/2007 6:19:51 PM

Lam Research (LRCX) $48.08 +1.60% Link ... NASDAQ-100 component giving a reversing higher PnF buy signal at $48.00.

Jeff Bailey : 3/26/2007 6:13:49 PM

NASDAQ-100 Heatmap Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/26/2007 6:11:08 PM

StockCharts.com's narrower S&P 100 Bullish % ($BPOEX) Link ... which reversed up to "bull confirmed" status on Thursday to 70%, sees a net gain of 2 stocks to reversing higher point and figure buy signals today to 72%.

Dorsey/Wright's S&P 100 Bullish (BPOEX) was still "bear alert" status at 72% as of Friday's close. Needs a net gain of 2 stocks to reverse back up to "bull confirmed" status.

Will check later this evening.

Jeff Bailey : 3/26/2007 5:58:34 PM

Bear Correction alert! ... StockCharts.com's narrower NASDAQ-100 Bullish % ($BPNDX) Link ... sees a net gain of 2 stocks to reversing point and figure buy signals. Reverses up to 62.00%.

Will check Dorsey/Wright's later this evening when updated, but as of Friday's close, their BPNDX was at 59%, needing 60% to reverse back up after 54% low measures on 03/14, 03/15 and 03/16.

Jeff Bailey : 3/26/2007 5:53:32 PM

USD/JPY finished 118.13, up 0.017%.

Up 0.527% from last Monday's close of 117.51.

Jeff Bailey : 3/26/2007 5:35:00 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/26/2007 5:34:55 PM

New Security alert! Dorsey/Wright & Associates and PowerShares team up to offer the PowerShares DWA Technical Leaders (NYSE:PDP) $24.87 -0.16% ... A technically managed equal weighted ETF of approximately 100 stocks using the principles of Relative Strength

Jeff Bailey : 3/26/2007 5:00:18 PM

May Unleaded futures (rb07k) settled up $0.0798, or +4.09% at $2.0152.

Jeff Bailey : 3/26/2007 4:56:36 PM

May Crude Oil futures (cl07k) settled up $0.63, or +1.01% at $62.91. Winning streak builds to 5 sessions.

Jeff Bailey : 3/26/2007 4:53:33 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 3/26/2007 4:22:43 PM

If TRAN breaks below 10 weekly, then I would say bulls are no trouble. Right now, techs are pumping things and if they get back in the gap (NQ 1831), then YM should follow and tag 12684. I am not quite ready to call a top on this market.

Marc Eckelberry : 3/26/2007 4:19:01 PM

I won't even mention the crack spread, although we are dealing more with diesel and jet fuel on the TRAN.

Marc Eckelberry : 3/26/2007 4:20:06 PM

There is a difference between oil bing up and oil surging $4 in a few days. TRANS are down because oil spiked up almost 7%.

Keene Little : 3/26/2007 4:15:35 PM

From a shorter term perspective, we've got a nice parallel up-channel for SPX from this morning's low. If that can hold and SPX tops out near 1442 (by late morning) and then breaks the channel I'll be all over it getting short. So that's my wish and we'll just have to see if some wishes are granted. Link

Keene Little : 3/26/2007 4:07:54 PM

While this could turn right back down tomorrow and give us a larger A-B-C pullback from last week's highs, I'd sure love to see this rally to a new high and give us a clean 5-wave move up from the March 12th low. Upside targets for the 5th wave for SPX are just under 1443 (where the 5th wave = 62% of the 1st wave, and is on top of the 78.6% retracement) and then just shy of 1456. That move would then set up at least a larger pullback if not the next leg down. Link

Keene Little : 3/26/2007 3:57:58 PM

Marc, I've seen the Trannies all over the map and at times completely oblivious to what oil is doing. To say they're related ignores previous price action. At least I haven't found a way to trade one vs. the other.

Jeff Bailey : 3/26/2007 3:48:37 PM

CDE now bidding $4.25

Marc Eckelberry : 3/26/2007 3:48:12 PM

The TRAN is down, but that is because of higher crude and it did hold 50 DMA. I only use the TRAN on the weeekly chart, and it still looks bullish to me.

Marc Eckelberry : 3/26/2007 3:46:41 PM

One can spin this, but the bottom line is the markets did a very bullish reversal off of really bad news. That means only one thing: we are not ready to fall apart quite yet.

Keene Little : 3/26/2007 3:47:23 PM

If however they can drive this a little higher and get the VIX back down near 10.50 (to its new uptrend line from its low in Feb) then that could be a very nice setup for the short side. I'm not willing to press any bets to the short side here, at least not yet, but we are probably getting close.

Jeff Bailey : 3/26/2007 3:45:19 PM

Bullish swing trade sell 1/4 position alert ... Let's sell a portion (600 shares) of the Coeur D' Alene Mines (CDE) $4.24 +6.00% at the bid of $4.24.

Keene Little : 3/26/2007 3:43:08 PM

What the non-confirmation could mean is that the major indices could be receiving some mutual fund help as they try to press them higher for end of quarter window dressing. I don't see them holding it into the end of the week with new highs (other than perhaps a minor new high tomorrow) but obviously that's just my opinion.

Keene Little : 3/26/2007 3:40:16 PM

A little non-confirmation? From Linda--thanks, and don't be bashful about chipping in here (wink):

The TRAN isn't bouncing along with the SPX, OEX and Dow.

Keene Little : 3/26/2007 3:37:16 PM

SPX and DOW are now back up to their broken uptrend lines. This is the next place to try shorting it but I can't say that I like it anymore. It might ride up underneath the trend lines for a little longer. A recovery above and to new highs above Thursday/Friday would clearly say the NDX pattern rules--another new high would complete the 5th wave and then it'll be time to short this rally for at least a larger pullback.

Jeff Bailey : 3/26/2007 3:35:17 PM

Oh my! ... Dow Chemical (DOW) $47.23 +3.32% ... ringing up a WEEKLY R2 and probes its speculative buyout high of $47.26.

Keene Little : 3/26/2007 3:33:51 PM

It sure has been a lot more work to get the market back up than it took to drop this morning. And volume on the way back up is less than it was during the drop. These are bearish indications but it obviously doesn't help us pick a level to trade. It does however continue to serve as a warning that surprises will be to the downside, just like this morning. And one of these declines will not get bought like today's was.

Marc Eckelberry : 3/26/2007 3:33:03 PM

Copper still at highs. All the markets needed was the MSFT news to spark a squeeze.

Marc Eckelberry : 3/26/2007 3:32:18 PM

No surprise, we are back at NQ highs. Shorts did not see this one coming.

Jeff Bailey : 3/26/2007 3:29:47 PM

VIX.X 13.22 +2.08% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/26/2007 3:28:43 PM

Swing trade put close out alert ... Let's close out the one (1) S&P Depository Receipts SPY May $140 Put (SFB-QJ) at the bid of $1.30

SPY $143.32 -0.04% ...

Jane Fox : 3/26/2007 3:28:30 PM

VIX breaking to new daily lows as ES breaks back into its PDR.

Keene Little : 3/26/2007 3:28:22 PM

RUT's 5-min chart looks more bearish than NDX's. It has a potential ascending wedge, with bearish divergences, and the top of it is coinciding with a Fib projection at 807.38. If the RUT gives us another leg up to that level that's where I'd watch for a short entry. That would also be near the bottom of its broken up-channel for its price action since March 12th. Getting the push higher as I type. Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/26/2007 3:24:27 PM

SPY April Options Montage ... just after VIX.X test of WEEKLY Pivot Link

Keene Little : 3/26/2007 3:24:03 PM

The DOW, SPX and RUT are all threatening to break their latest uptrend lines from this morning's low, thus looking more short term bearish than NDX. The whole bounce today smells corrective and has me thinking it's going to roll back over. NDX is the only one that gives any sense that we could see this press to a new high for the move up from March 12th.

Keene Little : 3/26/2007 3:20:18 PM

I've been negligent in my duties to get this posted. My apologies.
Approximate futures premium over cash:

YM -- +83
ES -- +11.00
NQ -- +19
ER -- +6

Jeff Bailey : 3/26/2007 3:15:53 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 3/26/2007 3:14:14 PM

Using just trend lines on the NDX 5-min chart shows a potential ascending wedge for today's rally off this morning's low (but no bearish divergences associated with it). The top of the wedge intersects its downtrend line from last Thursday in another 15 minutes near 1797.65. That will be worth watching. But a parallel up-channel suggests a move up tomorrow to the 1812 area that I had mentioned earlier could be in play here. The uptrend line is currently near 1792.50 and obviously rising. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 3/26/2007 3:10:14 PM

NQ 50 dma in play at 1813. Short below, long above. VIX at lower end of range, which is normally bullish. This advance looks a little too slow for me, maybe one more dip?

Keene Little : 3/26/2007 3:06:57 PM

In fact, follow today's uptrend line up and short a break of it (just be careful of the head fake. Ideally a break and retest would set it up nicely). In the meantime, the trend is up so buying the dips to that trend line is another tactic.

Jeff Bailey : 3/26/2007 3:05:52 PM

Feeling great pressure based on Dave's observations and VIX.X

Jeff Bailey : 3/26/2007 3:05:34 PM

SPY $143.16 -0.16% ...

Jane Fox : 3/26/2007 3:05:23 PM

AD line is still -588 and AD volume below 0 so I would not be long here then on the other hand I would not be short either based on price action.

Jeff Bailey : 3/26/2007 3:05:14 PM

VIX.X alert! 13.33 +3.10% ... testing WEEKLY Pivot now.

Keene Little : 3/26/2007 3:05:10 PM

It could be risky (subject to whipsaw) but a break below the last low at 2:40 PM would be a sell signal.

Jeff Bailey : 3/26/2007 3:02:39 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 3/26/2007 3:01:54 PM

The ones who made money today were the ones that bought the NQ lows. This is still a bull run and buying the dips works.

Keene Little : 3/26/2007 3:01:53 PM

Time to exit the short play and likely stay on the sidelines for the rest of the day. I'd consider a short at the broken uptrend lines but only if it looks like another rollover is imminent.

Keene Little : 3/26/2007 2:54:56 PM

With neither the DOW nor SPX having tagged their broken uptrend lines, now near 12456 and 1435, resp., I'm a little concerned (for my short) that that's going to happen. It's another reason I'm not willing to risk much on this play, but I will look at it again if those levels are tagged as we head into the close.

Jeff Bailey : 3/26/2007 2:52:49 PM

Microsoft Sold 20 Million Vista Copies Since January Release

DJ- Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) has sold 20 million copies of its new operating system Vista for consumers since its January launch, outpacing sales of earlier Windows versions.

The software maker included the sales from Vista copies featured on new personal computers, individual box sales of the programs, upgrades and the coupons distributed by PC manufacturers in the fourth quarter that provided free discounted upgrades to Vista for customers who purchased machines between October 2006 and March. The early trends also indicate that more people are buying the higher-end version of Vista than past operating systems.

During the same time period, the earlier Windows XP sold about 17 million in 2002.

MSFT $28.00 -0.07% ...

Keene Little : 3/26/2007 2:41:15 PM

With NDX having bounced above the first pullback on Thursday (what would be wave-1 if it's not wave-A) it means the 3-wave pullback to this morning's low is in fact just a correction to the rally or else we had another smaller degree 1st and 2nd wave today. If it's the latter then we're about to get slam dunked to the downside. It's possible but if I were going strictly with the NDX wave pattern I wouldn't plan on. I'll stay short but I'll follow it down aggressively, and I'm certainly not willing to take a loss on it at this point.

Keene Little : 3/26/2007 2:37:35 PM

The NDX 60-min chart that I posted earlier ( Link ) was a bit confusing but the one short term bullish pattern (dark green) shows the need for another leg up to finish a 5-wave rally from March 5th. This 15-min chart shows why that's a decent possibility and why I'm not willng to give a short play a whole lot of leash here. Link

The consolidation pattern since the high last Thursday looks like waves A and B of an A-B-C pullback that finished at this morning's low. Notice that wave-C achieved 162% of wave-A. It could have been wave-3 to this morning's low (instead of wave-C) but wave-2 is not usually a triangle pattern like 4th and b-waves. So this requires close monitoring here--a continuation higher would have me looking to at least the 1812 area.

In the meantime, shorting the last high is working. Now pull your stop down to breakeven and we'll see if it amounts to anything more than just a correction to the rally off this morning's low (which right now, as a 3-wave pullback is all it is).

Jane Fox : 3/26/2007 2:34:05 PM

Certainly looks like PDLs are turned into resistance. Internals are just not talking so that tells me we are into chop and not a time to trade. SIGH! Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/26/2007 2:24:42 PM

Bullish swing trade long raise stop alert ... on the 1/2 position in the U.S. Oil Fund (AMEX:USO) $51.16 +1.16% ... to $49.74.

Keene Little : 3/26/2007 2:22:18 PM

Looks like a pretty good short setup as YM tags 12514 and ES is nearing 1444.75. But I wouldn't give it more than 20/2 points to a stop. It will need to work from here otherwise new highs may be on the way.

Jeff Bailey : 3/26/2007 2:20:31 PM

U.S. Oil Fund (AMEX:USO) $51.22 +1.28% ... wonderful post April futures settlement rally. Has probed March's relative highs.

Jeff Bailey : 3/26/2007 2:18:49 PM

200-day SMA alert ... PetroChina (PTR) $114.79 +3.01% ... decent volume of 853K just above 200-day SMA ($115.14).

Keene Little : 3/26/2007 2:14:13 PM

With the 5 and 15-min charts reaching overbought and some evidence of bearish divergences (if I squint hard) I'm hoping we'll get one more minor new high and I'll try the short side but I'm not willing to give it a lot of room to the upside. But worth a nibble here.

Marc Eckelberry : 3/26/2007 2:13:58 PM

And I was long at NQ 1794.25 based on my copper analysis. Why did I not stay in longer? Because I read too much "info". Argh.

Jeff Bailey : 3/26/2007 2:15:09 PM

Speaking of the Gators (see 03/12/07 Market Wrap) Link ... Friday's New Highs at the big board slightly fewer than I would have thought at 185.

Excellent analysis and observation from Dave (see Keene's 12:56:37), but if we were to see NH build back much above 200, and SPX take out last week's high, I'd have to think "naked call squeeze" as SPY/SPX fill their gaps from 02/27/07.

Jane Fox : 3/26/2007 2:09:30 PM

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- AT&T Inc. (T) and Napster Inc. (NAPS) said Monday they have entered an agreement to offer subscribers free unlimited access to more than 3 million song tracks for one year. Financial terms weren't disclosed. The tracks will be available to AT&T wireless and broadband subscribers through Napster To Go. The offer, which will be available beginning April 1, has a $180 value, the companies said.

Jeff Bailey : 3/26/2007 2:09:10 PM

FINAL FOUR SET; GATORS STILL IN HUNT

DJ- Defending champion Florida Gators get by Oregon and will next take on UCLA as they look to be first repeat champion since 1991-92 Duke teams. Georgetown defeats North Carolina in overtime and will play Ohio State in other Final Four matchup.

Keene Little : 3/26/2007 2:08:38 PM

Any break back below the last low near 1:50 should be a good sell signal. Just be careful of the whipsaws since the stop at that point would have to be above wherever this bounce stops.

Jeff Bailey : 3/26/2007 2:08:34 PM

IRAN SAYS MIGHT CHARGE UK SAILORS

DJ- The 15 U.K. naval personnel seized by Iran four days ago are well, the Iranian government says, adding they could face legal proceedings and that it had no intention of using them in any prisoner swap deal. Geopolitical tensions seen upsetting oil markets.

Keene Little : 3/26/2007 2:06:58 PM

For the RUT I have some Fibs and the bottom of its broken up-channel lining up near 807.50 which could carry the DOW and SPX a little higher but at this point I'm watching for some bearish divergences to start nibbling on the short side.

Jeff Bailey : 3/26/2007 2:00:32 PM

DALLAS FED MANUFACTURING INDEX MIXED

DJ- Manufacturing activity in Dallas Fed district is mixed in March, with its production index rising to 27.2 from 18.1 in February. Fed's general activity index slips to 12.7, from 26.0, while prices paid index moves to 29.7 from 29.3.

Jeff Bailey : 3/26/2007 1:59:54 PM

EUROPEAN SHARES CLOSE LOWER

DJ- European shares closed lower after a sharp drop in U.S. new-home sales reignites economic growth concerns. Shares also slide on weakness in the automotive sector after Porsche makes below-market value move on Volkswagen.

Jeff Bailey : 3/26/2007 1:59:17 PM

AUTO EXECS PRESS BUSH ON ALTERNATIVE FUELS

DJ- Leaders of Ford, GM and DaimlerChrysler urge President Bush to help make alternative fuels more available to American drivers, but the executives steer clear of the debate over fuel economy standards.

Keene Little : 3/26/2007 1:51:10 PM

The bounce pattern is subject to a bit of interpretation but it looks like internal Fibs projections for it are lining up at DOW 12431 and SPX 1433.45, basically near their broken uptrend lines. This would be about YM 12514 and ES 1444.75. So keep an eye on those levels for a potential shorting opportunity.

Jane Fox : 3/26/2007 1:43:05 PM

I believe we will retest yearly highs soon.

Jane Fox : 3/26/2007 1:42:28 PM

The new home sales report this morning really skewed things this morning and it is hard to get a good feel for the market. However I do feel daily lows are in and this may be a good spot to try a longer term long on the SPX or DOW.

Keene Little : 3/26/2007 1:42:00 PM

The broken uptrend lines for the DOW and SPX are now near 12444 and 1433, resp. If they can bounce up to their lines then I'd watch for a shorting opportunity there.

Jeff Bailey : 3/26/2007 1:37:26 PM

CMGI (CMGI) $2.38 +8.18% Link ... heavy volume again today. Notable new 52-weeker again today.

Keene Little : 3/26/2007 1:35:37 PM

Following up on the GOOG 120-min chart I showed on Friday ( Link ) this 60-min chart shows a little closer view of why the 465-466 area could be important, and a place to try a short play. Link

Gap close from Feb 27th is at 464.92, two equal legs up from March 5th is at 465.14 and within the rally leg from March 14th the 5th wave = 1st wave at 466.50. If a new high in GOOG is met with bearish divergences that's the next place I'd be looking to short the stock.

Jeff Bailey : 3/26/2007 1:27:19 PM

Coeur D' Alene Mines (CDE) $4.19 +4.75% .... "stuck" at WEEKLY R2 ($4.19).

Jeff Bailey : 3/26/2007 1:21:06 PM

Again ... March metals futures expire this week.

Jeff Bailey : 3/26/2007 1:20:17 PM

01:05 Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 3/26/2007 1:12:15 PM

This NDX 60-min chart is going to look a little confusing but I wanted to show what the possibilities are from here. So follow the color coding: Link

The bearish wave count (dark red) says the decline and bounce today is setting up a nasty decline. Any drop to a new daily low (whether today or tomorrow) suggests we could be on the bearish path.

The light green path says another leg down may not necessarily be that bearish but instead would be finishing an a-b-c pullback from last week's high and it'll be a good time to get long for a rocket ride to new highs.

The dark green wave count (only one leg up to a minor new high) says we haven't finished a 5-wave rally yet from the March 15th low. Any rally back up to a new high from here would suggest that is what we're getting. In that case I'll be watching for an end to the rally around 1810.

As Marc has been saying, scalp 'em for now because we don't know yet which of these patterns will play out. I'm leaning towards the bearish wave count (which should come as no surprise to you) but I'll let price action dictate here. But I'm continuing to test the short side on these rallies--short it and then get out of the way if it rallies to a new high. I see a lot of downside potential which tells me to try the short side.

Marc Eckelberry : 3/26/2007 1:11:13 PM

I any case, it is stopping the markets from collapsing.

Marc Eckelberry : 3/26/2007 1:10:29 PM

I don't think I have ever seen lower new homes number and rising copper. China demand?

Marc Eckelberry : 3/26/2007 1:08:34 PM

Copper is hitting new highs. Amazing.

Jeff Bailey : 3/26/2007 1:08:06 PM

01:05 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/26/2007 1:05:42 PM

BECKMAN TO ACQUIRE TEST MAKER BIOSITE

DJ- Medical-test company agrees to pay $1.55 billion, or $85 a share for Biosite, a combination that will strengthen Beckman's presence in a specialized segment of the diagnostic-test market. Offer represents a 53% premium to Friday's closing price.

BSTE $83.70 +51.13% ...

BEC $62.17 -7.31% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/26/2007 1:04:05 PM

CITIGROUP RESTRUCTURING LIKELY TO CUT 15,000 JOBS

DJ- Restructuring plan is likely to involve around 15,000 job cuts and a charge against earnings of more than $1 billion. Firm expects to unveil the plan by the time it reports its 1Q results on April 16, the day before its annual meeting.

C $51.39 -0.63% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/26/2007 1:03:01 PM

US STOCKS DECLINE ON HOME-SALES DATA; BOSTON SCIENTIFIC DOWN

DJ- Stocks decline on surprisingly weak home-sales data, as high oil prices add to the downward pressure. Boston Scientific (BSX) declines over 8% on heavy volume as its chief medical officer said a highly anticipated stent-effectiveness study, due to be released tomorrow, was 'programmed to fail.'

Jeff Bailey : 3/26/2007 1:00:27 PM

PHF $10.13 +1.09% ... most recent update on NAV at this Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/26/2007 12:58:53 PM

"Bear gulp" ... those look like good trades in the Pacholder High Yield (PHF) $10.13 +1.09% ... to $10.23.

Keene Little : 3/26/2007 12:56:37 PM

For those who want to try watching option activity as Dave had discussed, here's a follow up:

FYI I am watching the action in the 1450 Apr Call SXZ DJ. There were about 3500 sold at 11 - 11.5 between 9:30 and 10:01. I see that about the same number were bought between 9 - 8.5 starting at 10:17 to 10:49. My gut tells me they went in and out and we are now heading back up. Fun to watch and if I were with them in the 1450 (too close for my nerves) I would be closing them now (or actually a few minutes ago when it looked like the same group was unwinding its position). Unfortunately I am great at observing but not all my conclusions are accurate.

As for Dave's last sentence, who of us always has accurate conclusions? That's why we use stops.

Marc Eckelberry : 3/26/2007 12:55:11 PM

Overall, though, I still think gold is he best long trade long because today's news reinforces the stagflation scenario. When I say I buy dips in equities, I am just talking about a trade. I hold no illusions as to the future state of the economy. It is bearish.

Jane Fox : 3/26/2007 12:51:28 PM

Do you remember the chart I showed this morning of the US $ and thought it was bearish which in turn would be very good for my GLD long? I should have taken my own advise and shorted the $. Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/26/2007 12:50:00 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List found at this Link

Just after the open we sold the CAT-EA, then on pullback bought the CAT-DN back.

Now covered for the CAT-EA.

Marc Eckelberry : 3/26/2007 12:49:34 PM

But until lows break, I intend on buying dips. Just be patient. There is no rush.

Jane Fox : 3/26/2007 12:48:23 PM

YM tags its 100EMA and finds support. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 3/26/2007 12:47:38 PM

We will find out at 2:30 what the boyz have in mind. Still only scalps until then.

Jane Fox : 3/26/2007 12:47:11 PM

This morning I mentioned I thought a retracement to the 23.60% and the 50EMA would be the healthiest thing this market could do. I did not expect it to do it all in one day however. Link

Jane Fox : 3/26/2007 12:43:22 PM

Here is now the markets are trading in relation to their PDRs. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 3/26/2007 12:40:56 PM

This action is telling me it is premature to bet the farm on the short side. Day trades only.

Keene Little : 3/26/2007 12:40:09 PM

Some interesting trend lines around recent price action on the NDX. As this daily chart shows, the rally stopped at two trend lines of potential importance: Link

First, the trend line along the lows since early November (ignoring the spike down on January 3rd) intersected a parallel downtrend line attached to the February high right where price stopped last week. Is this the new down-channel we should be using now? Time will tell.

Today's pullback dropped below both its 50-dma and the trend line along the lows from early November but this time through that January 3rd low, both coincident near 1785. NDX has now bounced back above that level. The downtrend line from the February high is now near 1801 and that would be a heck of a rally today--it would completely retrace today's decline and would obviously look bullish.

So we'll watch the battle of the trend lines here for some more clues as to what's next. Now that we're getting a larger bounce, any turn back down to a new low would very likely give us another leg down at least equal to the one from last week's high to this morning's low.

Marc Eckelberry : 3/26/2007 12:32:08 PM

Now we could be in for some range trading, which means scalp it, don't love it.

Marc Eckelberry : 3/26/2007 12:31:08 PM

Years of future's trading and I still do the mistake of getting out too early by reading too much crap. I should have stayed long longer, since I got in at 1794.50. Stick to reading only future's across the board and look for divergences. The news is not a trader's tool. At least I was right about the lows and did not get sucked in.

Jeff Bailey : 3/26/2007 12:27:10 PM

VIX.X 13.90 +7.33% ...

Keene Little : 3/26/2007 12:26:33 PM

Regarding Dave's comment on sold calls at 1460-1465. How do you tell if calls are sold or bought from volume. Where is he getting his block sales data?

I don't follow options data (I have enough on my plate!) so I went to the source. This is very educational and as Dave says, he may not have it entirely correct but it's one of the better approaches to daily option analysis that I've read:

"First you cannot tell if the order is to close or to open. But you can make a good guess.

"I use trade Station for data. I open a "Time and Sales" window to track the options I am interested in. I pick those from an option montage where I follow activity for all near the money options - especially open interest and volume. I watch for block trades of 100 and more. That is where last weeks observation came on the 5000 options traded in the 1450 and 1460 calls.

"I then correlate the daily activity by setting up a TS chart of the options I wish to follow. I track them daily and watch volume and open interest. If the open interest grows on a day then more options were sold to open. Unfortunately I have no way of doing this intraday - it seems to be calculated as of COB. Such is life.

"Now I will caution that this is no way full proof! But it does show activity and inclination. I usually follow the option big guys when I can. When I see them place thousands of orders and the same day close thousands of orders with no change in the OI I surmise they are controlling order flow on the index and are pocketing huge sums trading that info. Remember my comments of the spike down day. They sold all AM - sold tons of puts - bought the index all PM and bought back the puts before COB. I know because the OI on the heavy traded options was pretty much net zero for the day.

"Now you must take my comments with a grain of salt. I am no expert just a guy trying to learn and make a little money. FYI I have no Bull Put spreads this month. I do have 1460X1475 and 1485X1500 Bear Call spreads. And I am watching the OI on my shorts. If it decreases I will reconsider my position deployment. Otherwise I'll ride them into OPEX if more than 20 points OTM."

Jeff Bailey : 3/26/2007 12:25:53 PM

Swing trade covered call buy back alert ... Let's now buy back the two (2) Caterpillar CAT Apr $70 Calls (CAT-DN) at the offer of $0.54.

CAT $66.67 -0.31% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/26/2007 12:23:57 PM

Dow Chemical (DOW) $46.42 +1.57% ... best levels of session. Probes its WEEKLY R1 ($46.47).

Marc Eckelberry : 3/26/2007 12:23:11 PM

My hunch is proving right as NQ bids the weekly. The real news spells C.O.P.P.E.R.

Marc Eckelberry : 3/26/2007 12:19:09 PM

In the end, techs could save the day for bulls (or break it). Watch NQ above all. 1800 is weekly pivot. I think it will hold at the close, even though we could get one more flush. This reminds me of the NQ 1800 battle we had last year and bulls won every time.

Marc Eckelberry : 3/26/2007 12:16:37 PM

I sure wish I had bought copper last week. What a trade (as well as oil and gold, but I did buy gold at least).

Marc Eckelberry : 3/26/2007 12:15:17 PM

I am now flat for the day. Shorting at the open was great and buying the lows was good as well (at least NQ), but now I just see broker feed. Some foreclosure news looks pretty bad and even though copper is making new highs, I think the prudent decision is to keep profits and stay flat. My only open future's position is gold long. I have to stay though, bulls could have been hit much harder and I think bears are dropping the ball at key NQ support. Watch NDX 1785 now.

Jeff Bailey : 3/26/2007 12:11:09 PM

CME's Feb08 Housing Futures at this Link ... I'm not overly certain of the 02/23/07 and 02/27/07 prices as this contract was just being established, some regions with no data. Most likely, 03/02/07 to current most accurate.

Jeff Bailey : 3/26/2007 12:04:16 PM

If you/we were "shocked" by today's number, the November contract may be the better contract to monitor.

Jeff Bailey : 3/26/2007 12:03:36 PM

CME's November Housing Futures at this Link ... Market Composite, Boston, Denver, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, San Diego, San Franciso, Washington D.C. new lows.

Chicago and Miami off recent 02/27/07 closing benchmark highs.

Jeff Bailey : 3/26/2007 11:57:52 AM

CME's August Housing Futures at this Link ... Boston and San Diego new lows. Chicago off recent double top high of 166.40.

Keene Little : 3/26/2007 11:56:09 AM

The broken uptrend line for the DOW is near 12430.

Jeff Bailey : 3/26/2007 11:53:52 AM

CME's May Housing Futures at Friday's close Link ... Boston and San Diego made new lows. Miami and New York off recent highs.

Marc Eckelberry : 3/26/2007 11:53:52 AM

And of course, WHY is copper bullish? Again, be smart. Everyone is short out there.

Marc Eckelberry : 3/26/2007 11:52:42 AM

I might be wrong, but I have a feeling this was discounted. We will see the close, but the new homes news was already know to be bad. In fact, I heard some fund managers say that they would buy the dip on Monday on the low housing because it is a lagging indicator. What counts was last weeks regular home sales numbers which show inventory clearance. They will justify this any old way, I am bearish longer term, but I also know the markets don't play ball. The load up on puts trade is too early, I think.

Keene Little : 3/26/2007 11:51:22 AM

So far the bounce looks corrective which leads me to believe it will turn back down. The only question is how high the bounce will get. Watch the broken uptrend lines for a potential retest and use it as an opportunity to test the short side. For example, on SPX that line is currently near 1431 or about 3 points higher. Even if this pullback will lead to another big rally we should first get another leg down in the pullback. More bearishly the next leg down will be a strong one.

Marc Eckelberry : 3/26/2007 11:47:13 AM

NQ back above weekly pivot. The entire area between 1795 and 1800 was a buy.

Marc Eckelberry : 3/26/2007 11:46:31 AM

Trading the news is for suckers, look at the clues that are hidden to the herd. The heads up was clear, I hope you listened and are out of your shorts at lows.

Keene Little : 3/26/2007 11:39:40 AM

I had posted a comment from Dave on Thursday about his observation on a block of sold April SPX calls. Here's his follow-up observations:

I follow the volume closely and the rallies are slow and steady and seem almost designed to suck in retail customers. They become the forward troops who are abandoned when real news hits as the institutions sell in a hurry. This follows my comments about the SPX 1460 and 1450 April call selling last Thurs. It did not result in their closing the positions the same day but they are now about half of what they were sold for. Me thinks the smart money is betting we were at a near term top.

Jeff Bailey : 3/26/2007 11:34:25 AM

USD/JPY 117.86 -0.21% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/26/2007 11:33:38 AM

YM and USD-JPY Daily/Weekly/Monthly pivot matrix at this Link

Keene Little : 3/26/2007 11:30:40 AM

We've all read about how housing is doing around the various parts of the oountry and Florida has been hit particularly hard (they got particularly frothy). Two comments on the Florida market (thanks to Ray and John, resp.):

You talk about housing. One of my friends is a builder. He bought a house in Jupiter Fla a year ago for $600K. He just bought 2 more houses that are identical in the same development for $375K each. He says he is going to rent them out but expects they will drop further before they rebound.

...We see it happening in our area. Two giant homebuilders have walked away from four very large parcels of land and forfeited their option money. It has caused a major problem for some of the communities too. For example, the city of Clermont committed to building a new $18 million sewage treatment plant and they intended to pay for it with the impact fees from these homes that will now not be built.

The latter report shows the kind of impact that the slowing housing market will have on the economy. To say the subprime implosion will have little impact is to not understand the importance of first time buyers in the housing market. Think of all the home buyers, from the poor to the super rich, as a column of blocks with the relatively poorer first-time buyer as the bottom block. Take away financing from them and you pull out that lower block Guess what happens to the column.

Marc Eckelberry : 3/26/2007 11:26:09 AM

I will change that tune if NQ loses 1795 again and copper goes red. Otherwise, bulls kept control even though the DOW looks very ugly..

Marc Eckelberry : 3/26/2007 11:23:27 AM

Never stay short the markets very long on an HG bid while housing is getting negative news. It's a bullish divergence. Be smart, forget your bias. Book profits and stay away from dreaming of a crash today.

Marc Eckelberry : 3/26/2007 11:17:06 AM

Commodities are on a bull run once again, the winter correction was just a pause.

Jeff Bailey : 3/26/2007 11:15:40 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Friday's Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 3/26/2007 11:15:40 AM

If we press a little lower this morning then it's going to look like the sharp move down was a 3rd of a 3rd wave down in the move down from Friday morning's high. We should be looking for some bullish divergences on the short term charts to give some clues now. I would expect at least a bounce very soon.

Jane Fox : 3/26/2007 11:05:04 AM

TICKS -1000 and the bears have the ball and are running for a TD.

Keene Little : 3/26/2007 11:02:53 AM

Another good observation (thanks Scott):

At the very least the speed at which this drop happened shows how quick people are to abandon their position. This should bring into question whether this market is going to new highs as the talking heads would have you believe. I haven't check the volume on that drop, but have you seen any volume on the up days lately that have impressed you?

In fact the volume on the rally has been less than the drop from the February high. It's a classic sign of a correction. Or if we're going to get a push to new highs and the volume doesn't participate then it could be a sign that we should look for a double top. Following the volume has always been something traders need to do.

Jeff Bailey : 3/26/2007 11:02:34 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/26/2007 10:57:36 AM

SPY April Option Montage (CBOE volume only) at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 3/26/2007 10:53:12 AM

Copper bid is supportive, bears should not expect a "crash".

Marc Eckelberry : 3/26/2007 10:50:37 AM

NQ lows will most likely hold.

Keene Little : 3/26/2007 10:48:50 AM

Should I let my GOOG April 420 puts ride here , or should I sell them??

Holding on for dear life on these? (wink) GOOG is in the same position as the broader market--we don't know yet whether this morning's pullback will lead to another rally leg or is the start of the next big decline. There's simply no way to know yet. GOOG needs to get back below 450 to turn more bearish but I see the possibility that it could do more of a large sideways consolidation before it resolves one way or the other.

The daily chart is starting to weaken and that could have me holding on for something more but at this point your premium is beginning to wither quickly. It's why I've been saying do not buy front month puts if you want to play the downside. Give yourself a few months at least. I'd be tempted to just exit the play and wait on this one.

Jeff Bailey : 3/26/2007 10:45:51 AM

VIX.X 14.48 +11.81% ... after test of MONTHLY Pivot from underneath.

Wouldn't be surprised to see quite a bit of PUT SELLING at $140 or further out-the-money

Jeff Bailey : 3/26/2007 10:44:13 AM

SPY 60-min interval chart with WEEKLY (blue) and MONTHLY (pink) pivot retracement at this Link

Keene Little : 3/26/2007 10:36:37 AM

This updated DOW 30-min chart shows the possibility that Friday morning's high was the end of the rally. First of all it did a nice job of tagging its 62% retracement at 12509 (high was 12511). Link

The count up from March 14th could be complete at that high (I don't like the very small 4th wave but it doesn't violate anything other than the "smell" test). This count suggests, as Scott observed, that the sharp move down this morning was either the 3rd wave in the move down from Friday afternoon, or the 3rd of a 3rd from the move down from Friday morning. The latter interpretation means we need another small 4th and 5th wave down.

Regardless, we should be ready for at least a bounce and then we'll get to see if the broken uptrend line becomes resistance. If it does, and the DOW declines back below wherever this morning's low is going to be, then it means the rally leg is done. Then we'll determine whether the decline is going to be just a pullback that leads to a bigger rally or is the start of the next major decline.

Jeff Bailey : 3/26/2007 10:34:18 AM

SPY $142.20 -0.82% ... ditto.

Jeff Bailey : 3/26/2007 10:33:57 AM

VIX.X alert 14.71 +13.50% ... MONTHLY Pivot.

Keene Little : 3/26/2007 10:25:52 AM

And as soon as I post that we get the next leg down. Now is when I'd be looking to see if we get a stronger bounce started, and what kind of bounce it turns into.

Keene Little : 3/26/2007 10:26:28 AM

Did that look like a wave-3 of the decline from late friday's high on the 5 and 2 minute chart to you? If so shouldn't we hammer out a wave-4 and a minor new low wave-5 before the final wave-5 of the correction begins? Scott

Good eye Scott. Yes is the short answer. The only other possibility was that the lower high Friday afternoon was the end of a more complex b-wave in that consolidation and that would suggest only a minor new low from here would finish a 5-wave move down from late Friday. If that's true then we should be finishing the move down and the next bounce will tell us more (whether it's corrective or not).

Keene Little : 3/26/2007 10:20:20 AM

This is the updated SPX 30-min chart from Friday where I had projected a pullback into Monday morning that then sets up the final rally leg. SPX has dropped below the bottom of its up-channel but it's still in "under-throw" territory. It just needs to start climbing, and soon, otherwise a more significant break of its uptrend line would spell trouble for this rally leg. Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/26/2007 10:20:06 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List found at this Link

Jane Fox : 3/26/2007 10:17:32 AM

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Crude-oil futures rose past $63 a barrel Monday to their highest level in more than two weeks, buoyed by mounting tensions between Iran and the U.K. over the arrest of 15 British navy personnel in the Persian Gulf by Iranian forces and Iran's claims that they had illegally entered its waters.

Tehran said it's considering charging the sailors, who the British and Iraqi authorities claim were in Iraqi waters when they were seized at gunpoint on Friday. U.K. Prime Minister Tony Blair has called for their release, warning Iran that he views the fate of the seamen as a 'fundamental issue.'

The incident took place as the United Nations Security Council agreed a further package of sanctions against Iran for refusing to comply with international demands that it cease enriching uranium.

"Whether or not the Royal Navy entered Iranian waters is, however, not really the issue," said Arne Rasmussen, an analyst at Danske Research, in a research note Monday. "The real issue is that the Iranians dared to step up the conflict with the West."

Jane Fox : 3/26/2007 10:16:45 AM

TRIN a bearish 1.55.

Jane Fox : 3/26/2007 10:13:02 AM

Crude is surging to over $63.00/bl.

Jane Fox : 3/26/2007 10:12:33 AM

This chart of the US$ is bearish and very good news for my long GLD position. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 3/26/2007 10:11:43 AM

Yen bids, carry trade in danger now, once again.

Keene Little : 3/26/2007 10:10:43 AM

SPX, DOW and RUT have dropped to or slightly below the bottoms of their up-channels so price needs to hold here and get a rally leg started. If we get a bounce and then a continuation lower then that would significantly increase the odds that we've already seen the high.

Marc Eckelberry : 3/26/2007 10:10:26 AM

Gold was the only safe trade ahead of today. YG is at pivot resistance (R1 day and R1 week), watch for Friday's highs at 671.30 (june).

Jane Fox : 3/26/2007 10:09:38 AM

AD line is now -1004 and it is time to short the rallies.

Keene Little : 3/26/2007 10:08:15 AM

Ouch, this is getting worse than I expected to see. Another surprise kickoff to the downside? It's quite possible, especially if this doesn't get turned around very quickly.

Jeff Bailey : 3/26/2007 10:07:12 AM

10:05 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 3/26/2007 10:06:53 AM

OK we have a direction. AD line is now very clear -793 and AD volume making new daily lows and VIX new daily highs.

Keene Little : 3/26/2007 10:05:23 AM

New home sales have slowed more than economists had predicted. I'm shocked, shocked I tell you.

Jane Fox : 3/26/2007 10:04:02 AM

New home sales to a 7 year low. Ouch!

Keene Little : 3/26/2007 10:03:52 AM

The last leg of a consolidation is often a news related spike so ideally this spike down is finishing the consolidation that will then set up the final rally leg (5th wave). I'd be real careful about the short side here.

Jane Fox : 3/26/2007 10:02:52 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Sales of new-homes unexpectedly slowed again in February, falling 3.9% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 848,000, the lowest since June 2000, the Commerce Department reported Monday.

Economists surveyed by MarketWatch were expecting an increase in February to about 1.00 million units.

Sales were down 18.3% compared with February 2006. Sales in January were revised lower to show a 15.8% drop to an 882,000 annual rate compared with 937,000 reported previously. Reported sales in December and November were also revised lower

Jane Fox : 3/26/2007 10:01:04 AM

Somebody did not like the new home sales out at 10:00.

Keene Little : 3/26/2007 10:00:51 AM

I haven't seen the report yet but let me guess--not such a good housing number?

Jeff Bailey : 3/26/2007 10:00:31 AM

Swing trade covered call establish stop alert ... Place a stop on the two (2) Caterpillar CAT Apr $70 Calls (CAT-DN) at $0.80. ($0.68 x $0.69)

CAT $67.25.

Jeff Bailey : 3/26/2007 9:58:45 AM

Swing trade sell NAKED Call alert ... Let's sell two (2) of the Caterpillar CAT May $72.50 Calls (CAT-EA) at the bid of $0.61.

CAT $67.41 +0.79% ...

Jane Fox : 3/26/2007 9:56:19 AM

AD line as "improved" to +273.

Keene Little : 3/26/2007 9:48:35 AM

Actually the NDX is not the only one threatening to break its uptrend line from March 14 as the RUT has already marginally broken its line. It's been hugging the underside of it since Friday afternoon. That's certainly potentially bearish here. But I'm using a parallel channel based on its EW count that shows the bottom of the channel near the lows of the recent consolidation so in that respect it has a very similar setup to the DOW and SPX.

Keene Little : 3/26/2007 9:44:26 AM

The 50-dma for NDX is currently just above 1785.

Keene Little : 3/26/2007 9:43:18 AM

NDX is the closest to its uptrend line from March 14th, and in fact currently sits on it. It could tolerate a relatively small drop since oftentimes a slight overthrow of a parallel channel, as it did at its high last Wednesday, will be met with an equal under-throw. A slight break below the uptrend line could find potential support at the 50-dma. In either case I wouldn't plan on a breakdown, at least not yet. It could happen but not something that's high odds here. Link

Jane Fox : 3/26/2007 9:42:53 AM

VIX is well above its PDH and should be a huge red flag to the bulls.

Jane Fox : 3/26/2007 9:41:59 AM

AD line is a very neutral +42 and AD volume is basically 0 so once again we should not be trading yet.

Jeff Bailey : 3/26/2007 9:37:42 AM

Weekly/Monthly Index Pivot Matrix found at this Link

Keene Little : 3/26/2007 9:36:34 AM

Yes Jane, I contacted support so we'll see if they can find the problem again.

Jane Fox : 3/26/2007 9:29:33 AM

Thank you for that update on MM Keene. Have you contacted OI Tech support yet?

Jane Fox : 3/26/2007 9:28:41 AM

On this chart of Gold I have put arrows on the swing lows and highs used to form the resistance turned support zone. Even though the $ was strong overnight Gold is still respecting this support zone. Link

Keene Little : 3/26/2007 9:27:36 AM

It looks like more than a few of you are having trouble with the standalone version of the MM again. If you are able to get in with the browswer version but don't yet have the beta version that automatically updates every 30 seconds then try this one: Link

Jane Fox : 3/26/2007 9:25:49 AM

Crude is breaking above its resistance but unfortunately the MACD is not supporting this move. Link

Jane Fox : 3/26/2007 9:23:41 AM

Interestingly ER's May 2006 highs are now resistance whereas those highs were support to ES and YM. I think a revisit to the at least the 50EMA would be healthy. Link

Jane Fox : 3/26/2007 9:21:20 AM

Almost the same story for the DOW futures. Link

Jane Fox : 3/26/2007 9:19:52 AM

If this market were to make just a very shallow 23.60% retracement it would be a revisit to the 50EMA and a much healthier spot from which it could springboard to test yearly highs. Link

Keene Little : 3/26/2007 9:18:40 AM

After the consolidation the past two days and now a flat opening it's too hard to determine which way this will head next as either a pullback or launch higher is possible. Without a clear setup I don't have any recommendations this morning other than do as price is doing--stay flat.

Jane Fox : 3/26/2007 9:11:54 AM

The US $ spent all of its overnight session above it PDH which is not good for my long GLD position however the strong crude chart is very good for my Gold position. Link

Jane Fox : 3/26/2007 9:03:51 AM

The markets spent Thursday and Friday consolidating Wednesday's huge gains so they may be ready to surge higher today although I think a much more bullish scenario is a pull back then a surge higher. The overnight higher highs and lows suggest we will have at least a bullish open. Link

Jane Fox : 3/26/2007 8:58:23 AM

Good morning all. Today we have the release of February's new-home sales, which may climb, at 10:00EDT.

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