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Keene Little : 3/28/2007 10:25:47 PM

Thursday's pivot tables: Link and Link

OI Technical Staff : 3/28/2007 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

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Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2007 6:41:24 PM

Yep ... BIG volume spike for the GLD too at 11:45:00 AM EDT.

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2007 6:39:39 PM

I sent a note to the CBOT too. Haven't been able to talk with my trader there today. Expiration was expected to be wild.

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2007 6:25:50 PM

Was anyone triggered long? Check those accounts. Looks like 502 contracts traded in a matter of seconds for June. Don't be "the one" ...

Marc Eckelberry : 3/28/2007 6:21:57 PM

I have a note to Qcharts, we will see if they correct. It is true that even IB had it, but it flipped through everything without a last.

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2007 6:20:26 PM

Sure don't see those sharp declines on COMEX's gold futures

Marc Eckelberry : 3/28/2007 6:17:24 PM

Barcharts has the low at 669.60. They are extremely reliable: Link

Marc Eckelberry : 3/28/2007 6:16:02 PM

I wasn't stopped. Dan, were you?

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2007 6:14:51 PM

CBOT's YG recap at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2007 6:11:07 PM

Not sure Marc ... CBOT also showing low of $628.00. Time stamp matches QCharts to the second.

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2007 6:07:57 PM

Current OPEN MM profiles that I've made and Watch List at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 3/28/2007 6:04:37 PM

No stops were triggered. It's QCharts.

Marc Eckelberry : 3/28/2007 6:03:38 PM

That was a bad tick, Jeff. Qcharts will be correcting. June gold low was 669.60: Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2007 5:45:54 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 3/28/2007 5:38:21 PM

Hmm, fat-fingered trade to 628? Could be where we're headed next.

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2007 5:34:22 PM

Same for yg07m down to $628.00

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2007 5:33:24 PM

Doesn't look like anyone mentioned that spike down in the YG07j this morning to 625.51.

Those that are actually trading gold futures may want to check their accounts.

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2007 5:12:39 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2007 5:06:48 PM

May Unleaded (rb07k) settled down $0.0123, or -0.50% at $2.0112.

Keene Little : 3/28/2007 5:07:43 PM

Sneak peek at the roadmap updates using the 120-min charts that I'll be showing tonight. There's a slight difference between the indices which will hopefully clear up over the next couple of days once we see what kind of bounce we get.
DOW: Link
SPX: Link
NDX: Link
RUT: Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2007 4:40:02 PM

May Crude Oil (cl07k) settles higher for 7th-straight session (matches 02/21 to 03/01 streak) by $1.15, or +1.83% at $64.08.

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2007 4:21:54 PM

Snapshot of Currencies with today's low/highs Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2007 4:16:37 PM

Could be a big day for bulls tomorrow. Will check to see how USD/JPY did.

Seeing DXY 83.08 +0.08% (30-minute delayed)

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2007 4:15:21 PM

YM 12,389 ... 50% "dynamic"

Marc Eckelberry : 3/28/2007 4:07:33 PM

YM leaves another big gap open, which is the one concern bears should have. But NQ and techs looked headed for the dumpster. I will change that tune on a close above 10 DMA at 1800.

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2007 4:06:55 PM

"best action" seems to be early in session.

Keene Little : 3/28/2007 4:06:10 PM

One other possibility for tomorrow is that instead of a 2nd wave correction we'll only get a shallower 4th wave correction. It depends on whether the wave count for the move down starts at last week's high or Monday's high. The bounce should provide some additional clues in this regard. It would simply mean the decline that follows will either be a screamer 3rd wave or a meaker 5th wave. We'll worry about that after we get a bounce.

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2007 4:06:09 PM

I think this is the 4th-striaght session YM goes out between "dynamic" 38.2% and 61.8%

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2007 4:05:25 PM

YM 12,382 ...

Marc Eckelberry : 3/28/2007 4:02:44 PM

This market died last week on the Fed spike. Over and out if it can't get NQ back above 1800.

Marc Eckelberry : 3/28/2007 4:01:18 PM

I am now flat, although I think we will get down to NQ 1779 eventually and maybe 1769, But enough for today.

Marc Eckelberry : 3/28/2007 4:00:42 PM


Marc Eckelberry : 3/28/2007 3:59:36 PM

1787.75 should be hit

Keene Little : 3/28/2007 3:59:27 PM

Looking good--getting the leg down into the close. This should set up a rally tomorrow that takes us into early Friday (2nd wave correction) so don't be bashful about taking profits if you're still short. We could get a quick low tomorrow morning if you'd like to hold over in case Iran does something stupid. Oh that's right, they already have been doing stupid things. Actually, they've been quite cunning if not risky.

Jane Fox : 3/28/2007 3:53:23 PM

Economic Reports for tomorrow include:

8:30a.m. Initial Jobless Claims For Mar 24 Wk. Expected: -1K. Previous: -4K.

8:30a.m. 4Q Final GDP. Expected: +2.2%. Previous: +2.2%.

8:30a.m. 4Q Corp Profits, final. Previous: +4.2%.

10:00a.m. Feb Conference Board Help-Wanted Index. Previous: 32.

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2007 3:53:19 PM

CFC looks "just like" the DJUSHB

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2007 3:49:03 PM

MBA's Weekly Application Survey at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2007 3:48:30 PM

Oh shoot, I forgot ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2007 3:46:52 PM

CFC $33.80 -2.59% ... something's "out of whack" ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2007 3:45:54 PM

VIX.X 15.08 +11.86% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2007 3:45:40 PM

NDE $30.45 +3.11% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2007 3:45:29 PM

Swing trade put stopped alert on the NDE-QE at the bid of $1.05.

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2007 3:43:30 PM

IndyMac (NDE) $30.56 +2.81% ... after session high of $30.43!

Keene Little : 3/28/2007 3:30:47 PM

Getting another bounce here but I'm hoping it'll turn right back down and we finish near the lows for the day and give us at least a minor new low. That would give us a nice clean 5-wave move down from yesterday morning's high--for SPX, as shown on this 30-min chart: Link

It would then be set up for a 2nd wave rally tomorrow, maybe into early Friday (end of quarter window dressing) before setting up the next short play for a 3rd wave down on Monday. Now if it would just turn back down and give us that new low life would be good (for bears).

Marc Eckelberry : 3/28/2007 3:30:10 PM

NQ 1797.75 is 50% 2007. Bulls need a close above.

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2007 3:23:43 PM

YM short stop alert 12,388

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2007 3:17:26 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 3/28/2007 3:13:33 PM

can't get those new lows on NQ. Trying.

Marc Eckelberry : 3/28/2007 3:09:05 PM

Slim JIM on INTC for weeks. If it breaks down...

Marc Eckelberry : 3/28/2007 3:08:39 PM

INTC is losing 19 again and that could be a big deal.

Marc Eckelberry : 3/28/2007 3:08:06 PM

Yes, YM came very close to weekly S1. But still far for NQ and ES. NQ lost 20 day ema, I still think we will see 1779/1782.

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2007 3:05:08 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2007 3:00:54 PM

Probably a BIG bull/long, started buying at WEEKLY S1, billed out at $123.25 is my thinking.

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2007 2:59:28 PM

Biiiig 2 million share trade at DIA $123.18-$123.31 from 01:35-01:40 PM EDT today.

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2007 2:56:15 PM

Slap a lower 5-mrt on the DIA, or YM from 09:30-09:35 interval. If my target is going to get hit, should NOT get back above RED #3.

Keene Little : 3/28/2007 2:56:20 PM

Ignoring all of the intraday squiggles, what I do like from a bearish perspective are the daily charts. The setup for a wave-2 high last week (correcting the wave-1 drop from February's high) was a perfect short play and so far we're getting follow through to the downside. I will continue to watch for violations to the upside to let me know something more bullish is happening. While my antenna is buzzing in that respect, we still have a bearish pattern here. I'd rather be short than long.

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2007 2:51:57 PM

YM short lower stop alert ... to 12,388.

YM 12,362

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2007 2:40:54 PM

YM short lower stop alert ... to 12,398

YM 12,380

Keene Little : 3/28/2007 2:37:31 PM

The reason I say the jury is still out on where this market is headed next is because of the number of 1-2, 1-2, 1-2 wave counts we now have on NDX. Whenever I see that I get real nervous about the downside. While it sets up one helluva decline it's usually a corrective pullback instead. And if the pullback from last week's high for NDX is a correction then the upside potential could be significant. The bulls are not dead yet, not by any means.

Marc Eckelberry : 3/28/2007 2:36:45 PM

In any case, DOW, COMP and NDX did a perfect 61.8%.

Marc Eckelberry : 3/28/2007 2:36:25 PM

Safe money goes to the DOW and all those dividends so when it falters you know the markets are in real trouble.

Marc Eckelberry : 3/28/2007 2:35:42 PM

I watch all markets (NYSE double off 2000/202 was THE top), but the DOW is still king because that is the one everyone quotes first. The COMP has been very accurate as well.

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2007 2:33:52 PM

Thanks Rick! Yes ... 30-year ($TYX.X) has whipped back higher to 4.832% ... probes WEEKLY R1 4.837%

Marc Eckelberry : 3/28/2007 2:32:25 PM

This market could very well have died on the Fed rally.

Keene Little : 3/28/2007 2:32:18 PM

I think some would argue that the NYSE is the market, or certainly the Wilshire 5000, and not the DOW (too easily manipulated). NYSE retraced more than 78.6% of its initial decline and that put the bear market scenario at risk. We need some downside moves to confirm a top is in and right now the jury is still out.

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2007 2:31:26 PM

YM 12,375 ... right at 38.2% dynamic. So far has REFUSED to see a 5-minute close back below.

Marc Eckelberry : 3/28/2007 2:29:13 PM

The COMP also did a perfect 61.8% retrace. DOW + COMP makes a market. SPX is very noisy.

Marc Eckelberry : 3/28/2007 2:27:37 PM

NDX overlapped a little at 61.8%, but it was the same. SPX is a little rougher because of the energy stocks bias, but it found R at 143850, Nov 2000 high once again. The bear market is still alive below that.

Keene Little : 3/28/2007 2:24:52 PM

Watch out for a minor new low that finds support at the bottom of a potential bull flag for NDX, as it did this morning. Link

Keene Little : 3/28/2007 2:23:29 PM

Fine for the DOW but that certainly wasn't true for the other indices.

Marc Eckelberry : 3/28/2007 2:21:34 PM

The market has been very logical, actually. We had a clean 61.8% retrace of 2007 for the DOW and that was the end. Nothing more complicated.

Keene Little : 3/28/2007 2:19:19 PM

Marc, you didn't just say logical market in the same sentence, did you? (wink)

Keene Little : 3/28/2007 2:18:33 PM

So intead of the small wave-iv bounce as I had on those earlier charts, it would be another 2nd wave correction to the mid-day high and now we'll get a 3rd of a 3rd wave down. That's why a break to a new daily low would be a good short.

Marc Eckelberry : 3/28/2007 2:17:08 PM

This is why so many lose because they follow traders. Follow the logic of why the markets are down or up, not little squigglies on a 5 mn chart.

Keene Little : 3/28/2007 2:16:33 PM

Because NDX bounced above yesterday's low, but left a 3-wave bounce in its wake, it's possible that today's bounce is another 2nd wave correction. Even with the more conservative count that I showed on earlier 30-min charts for the DOW and SPX ( Link Link ) this could be a setup for a very swift decline from here. A drop to a new daily low would be a good time to jump aboard the southbound train. Until then it's possible we're just going to whip up and down in corrective price action.

Marc Eckelberry : 3/28/2007 2:14:23 PM

Traders are usually stupid, but the market is logical at the end of the day.

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2007 2:12:49 PM

YM short alert here at 12,383. Stop 12,418 , target 12,320.

Keene Little : 3/28/2007 2:12:33 PM

Just when I think we're about to get a new high to give us an impulsive advance off this morning's low the market tanks again. We're left with a 3-wave bounce and that means the primary trend is down for now.

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2007 2:06:51 PM

USD/JPY 116.87 ... low/high has been 116.37/117.98 ... Dorsey/Wright's USD/JPY cross rate chart where I've charted today's action Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2007 1:57:05 PM

Dorsey/Wright's June Yen PnF chart,where I've filled in today's action at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2007 1:55:31 PM

QCharts' symbol for June Yen (jy07m) 0.8646 +0.89% (30-minute delayed) ... al_rts should be set at 87.

Keene Little : 3/28/2007 1:54:18 PM

If we get a new high for the current bounce it will be impulsive (5-wave move up off this morning's low). So far it's just a 3-wave bounce that has stayed below yesterday's low (except for NDX and that one has me wondering what the implications are). It's not a clear pattern here and it's complicating matters as far as trying to figure out where this is going next (and making it a lot more difficult for me to get charts updated for tonight's Wrap). This market is enough to drive anyone to drink.

Jane Fox : 3/28/2007 1:51:13 PM

Using these charts, if you wanted to go short which market would you choose? I would choose YM. Link

Jane Fox : 3/28/2007 1:44:55 PM

I was tempted to take another short but the AD volume and the VIX told me "patience grasshopper."

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2007 1:39:16 PM

June Yen futures traders should note "bearish triangle" triggered 03/21/07 at 0.8575. Came right below bearish resistance.

Keene Little : 3/28/2007 1:35:50 PM

If the bearish ascending wedge idea is correct on gold, as shown on this 60-min chart for the June contract, then we should get a pretty quick move to the downside that retraces the March rally. Two equal legs down from the high in February would be at 619.30 and that's my first downside target for a short play. A break below yesterday's low would be confirmation of the break of its uptrend line. In the meantime it's still possible we'll see another push higher in the wedge so the stop at a new high is the right place. Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2007 1:34:54 PM

Statoil (STO) $27.08 +1.04% Link ...

Marc Eckelberry : 3/28/2007 1:34:00 PM

Traders are micro-managing every tick of QM (oil). Fellows, it's above 64. That's bad for the economy. Period. Not only that, the Yen keeps a bid. No carry trade, higher oil, inflation, no rate cuts, or maybe...who knows, but it all smells trouble, UNLESS it is discounted. Use stops. Gotta go.

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2007 1:33:36 PM

DJ- Norway's Oil Minister: Iran Investment Commercial, Not Political Decision

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2007 1:32:43 PM

DJ- Norway's Oil Minister: US State Department Warned Norway On Iran Oil Investment

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2007 1:31:42 PM

DJ- Saudi King: US Military In Iraq An "Illegitimate Occupation"

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2007 1:28:23 PM

iShares Silver (AMEX:SLV) $133.44 +1.19% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2007 1:27:21 PM

StreetTracks Gold (NYSE:GLD) $66.11 +0.62% Link ... $0.40 box to match $4 box for futures.

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2007 1:23:30 PM

Coeur D' Alene Mines (CDE) $4.26 +2.65% ... thinking ... "wouldn't it be something if traders WERE short gold/silver based on yen/oil analysis?"

Jane Fox : 3/28/2007 1:23:26 PM

AD volume hugging daily lows but the VIX is just moving sideways. TRIN is up to 1.20.

Marc Eckelberry : 3/28/2007 1:21:58 PM

Gold is a buy on dips until at least 685.

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2007 1:21:49 PM

VIX.X 14.75 +9.42% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2007 1:21:30 PM

SPY $142.04 -0.57% ... at Monday's April "Max Pain" theory calculation.

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2007 1:19:41 PM

Answer to 01:14:30 .... currently 16:1

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2007 1:18:37 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2007 1:14:30 PM

SPX's NH/NL finished 19:1 yesterday.

What do YOU think it is today?

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2007 1:12:12 PM

I'm thinking $8.00/barrel risk premium based on observation of cl07k's jump to $68.00 from settlement of $62.93.

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2007 1:10:38 PM

Excellent excellent commentary/analysis from guest analyst on CNBC regarding crude oil and "risk premium."

I think traders can begin to calculate the risk premium from yesterday's last afternoon action.

Jane Fox : 3/28/2007 1:08:34 PM

ES is back under its daily open but AD volume is not making new daily lows. Everything I use tells me bearish, bullish or neutral but the AD volume to new daily lows is the one indicator that will get me to pull the trigger. Then if the AD volume is making new daily lows and the VIX is making new daily highs it is a no brainer.

Marc Eckelberry : 3/28/2007 1:08:44 PM

They will buy that gap open, you need to scalp this now, but overall, I don;t see any strong reason to go back above 1810 today for very long.

Keene Little : 3/28/2007 1:07:30 PM

I'm starting to think I got spiked out of my silver short on that Iranian scare. Gold and silver are still giving me bearish vibes here. As shown on the daily chart for GLD, the bearish divergences at the new high, and especially with the dying volume during this rally, looks like a nice bearish setup. I think it's time to try another short on this one with a stop at a new high, so 66.50 stop. Silver should also be a good short, stop at a new high (especially since silver is struggling underneath its 50-dma). Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2007 1:02:05 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 3/28/2007 1:00:42 PM

In any case the VLO long was a very nice trade and I take my hat off to Regan for this pick and for bringing it to our attention. Any other stocks you are looking at Regan?

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2007 12:59:41 PM

VIX.X 14.58 +8.16% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2007 12:59:20 PM

FTO $33.15 -0.51% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2007 12:58:57 PM

VLO $64.97 +0.10% ...

Jane Fox : 3/28/2007 12:58:29 PM

I just got an email from Regan, the fellow who asked about VLO a couple of weeks ago. Here is an update of VLO and it looks like it may be ready for a retracement back to at least the 23.60% level at around 62.00. I don't like to short bullish stocks even though I think they may pullback because they may just move sideways instead of pullback and your chances of getting stopped are much greater than if you pick a bearish chart. On the other hand there are some traders who know a stock so well that they can trade it long and short equally well. I am not one of those traders. Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2007 12:58:10 PM

If LONG any of the refiners, good time, high premiums to SELL some calls.

Note 5-dayNet% of crude oil and undleaded. Crack spread deteriorating.

Keene Little : 3/28/2007 12:57:01 PM

Time to consider the bullish possibilities here, both short term and longer term. Using an updated DOW 60-min chart (I left the more bearish 1-2, 1-2 wave count), the pullback to this morning's low has two possible bullish counts. The first is that it finished a 4th wave correction in the rally from the March 14th low. A projection for the 5th wave (to equal the 1st wave) is at 12506 which would essentially be retest of last week's high. I don't like this because the 4th wave is outsized as compared to the 2nd wave. Link

The second possibility (not shown on the chart) is that last week's high was the end of the 1st wave up in a much larger rally to come. That would say the pullback is a 2nd wave correction (labeled as green wave-2? on the chart at today's low). This count says we have much higher to go (I alluded to this yesterday when I said the upside projection in this case would be well above 13K).

I hesitate to even mention this more bullish possibility since I just don't see it happening. And we won't have to seriously consider it until this were to push back up to new highs above last week's. But I mention it to keep us on our toes about the possibilities (i.e., don't get yourself in hot water with a mega-bearish position that goes south on you). Keep your risk management under control here.

Marc Eckelberry : 3/28/2007 12:51:33 PM

If they take it above 1811/1812, do not stay short.

Marc Eckelberry : 3/28/2007 12:51:10 PM

R is 1807.75, 20 ema 60 mn.

Marc Eckelberry : 3/28/2007 12:50:56 PM

SHould be safe to try another hit short, stop at 1812.25.

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2007 12:48:37 PM

Swing trade covered put place order alert ... to sell four (4) of the iShares Japan EWJ Apr $14 Puts (EWJ-PN) for $0.45.

This would OBLIGATE a trader to buy EWJ for $14.00 - $0.45 = $13.55.

Keene Little : 3/28/2007 12:37:47 PM

BTW, for you EW'ers following the wave counts, I've relabeled the DOW wave count showing the high on Monday as a truncated finish to the rally from March 14th (to agree with the SPX 30-min chart I showed earlier--11:22). That might not be correct (it could have finished at last week's high where it tagged the 62% retracement of the decline from February) but I like it since it "smells" better to me. It's a judgment call and it really doesn't matter in the long run. It only matters in figuring out the short term wave count to the downside which will become clearer with time. I want to remain on the conservative side in figuring out what this is doing.

Keene Little : 3/28/2007 12:30:48 PM

Not that it's typical, but sometimes you'll see a sharp bounce for the 4th wave if the 2nd wave was flat. As shown on this DOW 30-min chart, the small horizontal red line marks the low for wave-i and wave-ii was flat. This bounce could be wave-iv (alternating in form from the 2nd wave) and wave-v down is still needed. This becomes negated with a rally above 12377.59. Link

Jane Fox : 3/28/2007 12:31:18 PM

Could you give me specifics on your A/D line that you refer to? Are you using stats that show a ratio or actual volume numbers? I'm trying to find a similar chart with my ESignal service and can only come up with A/D line as a ratio.

I use the absolute numbers and not the ratio but "built" my own AD line and volume by modifying Tradestation's easy language code for the AD ratio. I find an AD ratio not as useful as the absolute number. You could see if Esignal's tech support has a fix or go to Esignal's forum and ask other users for this indicator. I am sure there are others out there that use an absolute AD line like I do.

Jane Fox : 3/28/2007 12:29:41 PM

If the VIX makes a new daily low and AD volume a new daily high then I will consider a long but not until.

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2007 12:28:21 PM

Institutions love selling premiums.

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2007 12:27:58 PM

VIX.X 14.52 +7.71% ... after double kiss of WEEKLY R1.

Keene Little : 3/28/2007 12:25:40 PM

The important numbers for the bears are yesterday's lows--any rally back above those levels would change the bearish wave count. Right now, even though the bounce is larger than I expected, as long as it stays below yesterday's low it remains possible for this to be a 4th wave correction and we'll get a new low from here as the 5th wave for the move down from Monday afternoon.

Marc Eckelberry : 3/28/2007 12:24:02 PM

Nasty hit on shorts. Watch NQ gap close at 1810.

Jane Fox : 3/28/2007 12:23:36 PM

ER's number is now +7 but the AD line and volume are still bearish enough that I will not try a long. Just playing the odds here.

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2007 12:22:30 PM

Swing trade put establish stop alert

on the one (1) IndyMac NDE May $25 Put (NDE-QE) ($1.20 x $1.35).

Place a stop to sell/close out this put should the underlying trade $30.45.

NDE $29.91 +1.28% ...

Keene Little : 3/28/2007 12:21:24 PM

Well that didn't last long. This bounce has become too large for a 4th wave. It's either yet another 2nd wave bounce (very bearish, look out below), or else this morning's pullback was part of a corrective pullback and we'll see the market rally higher now. Tough call.

Jane Fox : 3/28/2007 12:21:20 PM

And just like that ER breaks both levels of resistance and to a new daily high.

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2007 12:20:03 PM

Speaking of a "jacked up" VIX.X

Jane Fox : 3/28/2007 12:19:05 PM

Today ER has used its PDL as resistance and is now using its daily open as resistance. This market has a lot of resistance above it and should convince you not to go long that is if the AD line has not convinced you. Link

Keene Little : 3/28/2007 12:16:01 PM

Setup looks good to try a short again--try it at YM 12405 with a stop at 12425.

Jane Fox : 3/28/2007 12:15:34 PM

LONDON (AP) - Iran said a female British sailor seized with 14 other crew members would be released Wednesday or Thursday, softening Tehran's position by suggesting their boats' alleged entry into Iranian waters may have been a mistake.

Iranian state TV also said it would soon broadcast video showing the 15 British sailors and marines who were captured last week. British diplomats said Iran had previously promised not to parade the captives in front of television cameras.

Britain said it was freezing most contacts with Iran until it freed all the crew members, and the British military released what it said was proof its boats were within Iraqi territorial waters when they were seized.

Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki discounted the possibility of an escalation in the crisis, suggesting the British vessels may have made a mistake.

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2007 12:12:47 PM

VIX.X 15.01 +11.35% ....

Marc Eckelberry : 3/28/2007 12:10:41 PM

The Yen is a headache during low volume lunch. It dropped and of course we had a stop run.

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2007 12:10:41 PM

iShares Japan (AMEX:EWJ) $14.60 -1.08% ... back at put entry benchmark.

I will be out of the office for April's expiration, but begin eyeballing the $14.00 puts as a covered sell in coming sessions.

Keene Little : 3/28/2007 12:09:13 PM

Out of my YM short and I'll watch for another entry at 12405 if the setup looks good (needs a little pullback and then tag that level).

Keene Little : 3/28/2007 12:07:51 PM

Those idiots Graham and Schumer have no idea the fire they're playing with if they push too hard against China. What they want to do would come back to haunt us big time. It's protectionist, pure and simple and it's the same idiotic thinking almost a century ago that helped drive us into the Great Depression. Want to see it happen again boys? Keep up that kind of stuff and it won't be pretty. And that's my political commentary for the day.

Jane Fox : 3/28/2007 12:05:49 PM

TICKs +1000 and I will not use this one to get short. All those opportunties are gone and I think daily lows are now in.

Keene Little : 3/28/2007 12:03:31 PM

So far it looks like a little sideways triangle could be forming which would be typical for a little 4th wave correction. If we get the follow through to the downside then it would be a good time to exit your short play and think about a scalp long into tomorrow. But this little sideways consolidation could easily continue for another couple of hours. It might even press to a new high for the bounce in which case I'd watch for two equal legs up at DOW 12328 (YM 12405) as an opportunity to short it for the 5th wave down.

Jane Fox : 3/28/2007 12:00:30 PM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Two of China's most vocal critics on Capitol Hill vowed Wednesday to draft and pass bipartisan legislation that would require Beijing to allow its yuan currency to further appreciate, and warned President Bush there's nothing he can do about it.

"I hope the administration will join this team," rather than serve as "an apologist" for China, Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., told reporters after testifying before the Senate Finance Committee in the second hearing on China's economic and currency policies in two days.

Graham and Sen. Charles Schumer, D-N.Y., teamed up in 2005 to draft controversial legislation that would have slapped 27.5% tariffs on Chinese imports unless Beijing took steps to loosen the peg between the yuan and the dollar. U.S. manufacturers have laid the blame for a surging U.S. trade deficit with China and what they have said is a significantly undervalued yuan, which had long been pegged to the U.S. dollar.

The bill, which was opposed by the Bush administration, was never subject to a full Senate vote, but the lawmakers were pleasantly surprised in the spring of 2005 when they overwhelmingly won a procedural Senate vote in 2005 -- signaling broad support for action on the currency front.

Jane Fox : 3/28/2007 11:57:04 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- ETelecare Global Solutions may be based far afield in the Philippines, but its roots are much closer to Wall Street as the business-process outsourcing firm priced its initial public offering for trading on Wednesday.

ETelecare Global Solutions Inc. (ETEL) was founded by former members of consulting firm McKinsey, a familiar name among board rooms in the U.S.

The company on Wednesday priced 5.5 million American depositary shares at $13.50 a share, raising $72 million with underwriters Morgan Stanley, Deutsche Bank Securities and Robert W. Baird.

The IPO opened at $13.75 and rose to $15.56 for a gain of about 16%.

Marc Eckelberry : 3/28/2007 11:56:50 AM

The Fed rally is pretty much all gone. Note the lows for last Wed, which for NQ was 1782.25, but we were trading at 1795 before the announcement. Again, watch 1794.50 support, if it fails again, we should get 1782 maybe lower 1779, 20 DMA. Stops should now be lowered to 1799.

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2007 11:54:50 AM

CBOE Oil Index (OIX.X) 659.49 +0.22% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2007 11:54:24 AM

Exxon/Mobil (XOM) $75.60 -0.14% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2007 11:53:57 AM

PetroChina (PTR) $114.96 +0.20% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2007 11:53:38 AM

US Oil Fund (USO) $52.43 +2.40% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2007 11:50:25 AM

EIA: US Weekly Percent Utilization of Refinery Operable Capacity (%) rose to 87.01% from last week's 86.34%.

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2007 11:47:46 AM

Currency traders that may be short the yen, based on oil's rise, may have to make some adjustments.

Marc Eckelberry : 3/28/2007 11:45:25 AM

Do not be tempted into buying this as long as NQ struggles with 1798/1800. Now it's even struggling with overnight low at 1796. 1794.50 is 50% last week and it needs to hold or we will see 1779/1782, my target short today.

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2007 11:43:45 AM

EIA: Weekly Crude Oil Inputs Into Refineries up 167,000 barrels/day at 14,956,000 barrels/day.

Marc Eckelberry : 3/28/2007 11:42:26 AM

Watch the Yen.

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2007 11:41:53 AM

My Crude Oil # Days Supply falls to 21.9 from last week's 22.02.

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2007 11:41:07 AM

EIA: Weekly Gross Inputs Into Refineries up 116,000 barrels/day at 15,139,000 barrels/day.

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2007 11:39:20 AM

EIA: Weekly Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel Stockpiles up 733,000 barrels at 40.13 million barrels.

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2007 11:38:26 AM

EIA: Weekly ULS Diesel Stockpiles down 63,000 barrels at 56.14 million barrels.

Jane Fox : 3/28/2007 11:38:08 AM

You should be booking profits or lowering your stop and possibly getting ready to step aside. Two nice shorts today and it should be time to quit trading.

Marc Eckelberry : 3/28/2007 11:37:58 AM

June gold hit initial profit target of 675. Reload on a pullback. We are still headed for 685 at some point. Lower rates in the face of inflationary pressures should keep gold above support (50 dma 665).

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2007 11:37:28 AM

EIA: Weekly Total Distillate Stockpiles down 700,000 barrels at 118.03 million barrels.

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2007 11:36:26 AM

EIA: Weekly Reformulated Gasoline Stockpiles up 37,000 barrels at 1.09 million barrels.

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2007 11:35:20 AM

EIA: Weekly Total Gasoline Stockpiles down 258,000 barrels at 210.2 million barrels.

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2007 11:34:22 AM

EIA: Weekly Crude Oil Stockpiles down 846,000 barrels at 328.4 million.

Marc Eckelberry : 3/28/2007 11:32:37 AM

NQ 10 DMA is now market resistance.

Keene Little : 3/28/2007 11:31:18 AM

I've lowered my YM stop on the short to 12391, 3 ticks above the last bounce. It's not much but it will pay commissions with enough left over to buy a latte.

Jane Fox : 3/28/2007 11:30:31 AM

Do not expect this downward draft to be as dramatic as the one we saw earlier and take your profits when you get them. Heck you should have had your profit plan in place before you put on the trade so that becomes a moot point.

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2007 11:28:28 AM

EIA: Weekly inventory figures due out at 10:30 AM EDT.

USO $52.51 +2.55% ... low/high has been $51.90/$52.76.

Jane Fox : 3/28/2007 11:28:18 AM

Can't get much clearer than this. Link

Jane Fox : 3/28/2007 11:26:32 AM

I would use ES or YM.

Jane Fox : 3/28/2007 11:26:16 AM

This may be the time to try another short with stop just above the last swing high.

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2007 11:23:03 AM

11:10 Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 3/28/2007 11:22:44 AM

The SPX chart leaves open the possibility that the high on Monday afternoon was the end of the 5th wave for the rally from March 14th. That wave count, shown on this 30-min chart, is a little less bearish than the "3rd of a 3rd" wave down scenario I showed on the group of charts posted last night. Link

It's still bearish since it calls the end of the 2nd wave bounce (the correction to the decline from the February high) as complete and now we're getting started on the next big decline. But it might start off just a little bit slower than the 3rd of a 3rd scenario.

As shown in the chart above, it looks like we're starting a small 4th wave correction that should match yesterday's consolidation in time and then we'll get a 5th wave down to complete a larger degree first wave (wave-(i) near 1407). Then a larger bounce back up for another good longer term shorting opportunity, perhaps near the end of the week.

The bullish path says this pullback is just a correction and get ready for a run to new highs. Any rally back above 1430 would significantly increase that possibility, so that's where the key level is for the bulls.

Jane Fox : 3/28/2007 11:24:31 AM

I probably should add that the post I made at 10:58 was for a swing type trade that you could hold for weeks. Today however, I would not be long so on 2nd thought you may want to hold off on the swing type long and just see how today shakes out.

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2007 11:12:12 AM

11:10 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2007 11:03:06 AM

USD/JPY 116.49 -1.11%

Jane Fox : 3/28/2007 11:01:38 AM

TICKS +1000 and I am now waiting to get short again. Each time though it gets riskier and riskier.

Jane Fox : 3/28/2007 10:58:13 AM

The drop we saw yesterday and today have not even taken the SPX down to its 38.20% retracement of the rally from the March 14th lows. This test of the 50EMA may be a good spot to get long for a ride back to test yearly highs. Link

Keene Little : 3/28/2007 10:56:49 AM

We should be close to setting up a correction that will match (in time) the consolidation we had yesterday before it continues lower again. If you don't want to sit through that then a quick bounce here followed by a new low would probably be the time to take some profits and stand aside while it consolidates into tomorrow (it'll be choppy and no fun to trade).

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2007 10:53:30 AM

Treasury's Paulson: China needs to move "more quickly" on yuan.

Jane Fox : 3/28/2007 10:47:14 AM

This is getting just a tad overdone, something the markets seem to be doing a lot lately. Link

Keene Little : 3/28/2007 10:46:47 AM

There's little doubt now that this leg down is the 3rd of a 3rd wave down. It will be followed by a couple of small, relatively shallow, bounces and a continuation lower. If short, just stay there for now.

Jane Fox : 3/28/2007 10:44:34 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Despite heightened risks from the contraction in housing and the slump in manufacturing, the U.S. economy will mostly likely achieve moderate growth this year with gradually slowing inflation, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said Wednesday.

One big risk: "core inflation remains uncomfortably high," he said. However, core inflation "seems likely to moderate gradually over time," he said.

In prepared testimony to the congressional Joint Economic Committee, Bernanke expanded on the Federal Open Market Committee's statement from last week's meeting.

"Thus far, the weakness in housing and in some parts of manufacturing does not appear to have spilled over to any significant extent to other sectors of the economy," he said.

"Overall, the economy appears likely to continue to expand at a moderate pace over coming quarters," he said.

He noted that higher rents had been a major factor in the acceleration of core inflation. He expects that force to dissipate.

Jane Fox : 3/28/2007 10:43:06 AM

Dateline WSJ - Bernanke said the U.S. economy is expected to grow at a moderate pace, though risks remain. Troubles in the market for risky mortgages thus far don't appear to be spreading to the overall economy.

Jane Fox : 3/28/2007 10:39:08 AM

So much for my thoughts that overnight lows would be support.

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2007 10:37:58 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List found at this Link

Keene Little : 3/28/2007 10:37:34 AM

The DOW has now completely retraced the post-FOMC rally.

Jane Fox : 3/28/2007 10:36:42 AM

The kind of move we just saw does not happen often.

Jane Fox : 3/28/2007 10:36:23 AM

Gee hopefully some of you took that ES short and still have it. I am out but I am a "get profits and get out" kind of trader. Some have more "nerve" than I do.

Keene Little : 3/28/2007 10:36:16 AM

Quick Ben, launch the helicopter!

Jane Fox : 3/28/2007 10:34:07 AM

TICKS -800 and new daily lows across the board.

Jane Fox : 3/28/2007 10:33:40 AM

The TRIN will probably keep us from getting short and staying short. Link

Keene Little : 3/28/2007 10:32:17 AM

Out of my long and into a short. Stop is at 12415, two ticks above the last little high. If stopped out I will stay flat and stay away from the whipsaws.

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2007 10:32:04 AM

Bernanke: Productivity slowed, but trend still favorable

Jane Fox : 3/28/2007 10:31:08 AM

You can lower your stop or just get out with profits and step aside.

Jane Fox : 3/28/2007 10:30:26 AM

STop of course is above daily highs but make sure it is far enough away that they don't come get you.

Jane Fox : 3/28/2007 10:29:51 AM

AD volume to new daily lows and VIX to new daily highs. Let's try another short using ES.

Keene Little : 3/28/2007 10:27:07 AM

The longer the market fiddle futzes (that's a technical term for consolidates) around the lows the more bearish it becomes.

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2007 10:26:06 AM

Bring our "oil/energy" weighting back a bit to 1.25 position.

Jane Fox : 3/28/2007 10:25:21 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures rose Wednesday, as a new turn in tensions between Iran and the U.K. fueled safe-haven buying and sent crude-oil prices to their highest level of 2007.

Gold for April delivery gained $5.90 at $668.40 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. "The principal driver for the surge in bullion was once again rising crude," said Jon Nadler, a metals analyst at Kitco.com. "The delayed reaction to Iran's initial abduction of the British sailors is now showing all of the signs of turning into a rush to safety of significant proportions."

Britain has decided to freeze all bilateral activity with Iran while 15 of its naval personnel are being held, Foreign Secretary Margaret Beckett said in the House of Commons on Wednesday.

The personnel were seized last week while on patrol protecting Iraqi oil terminals and preventing smuggling, Beckett said. She said that not only have the U.K.'s positioning devices indicated they were in Iraqi territorial waters at the time they were surrounded by Iranian vessels but that the first coordinates given by Iran also were in Iraqi territory.

Beckett also reiterated Prime Minister Tony Blair's remarks that the U.K.'s entered a "new phase" of diplomatic activity.

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2007 10:25:10 AM

PetroChina (PTR) $115.97 +1.08% ... still long a full here.

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2007 10:23:45 AM

Bullish swing trade sell 1/4 position alert ... Let's go ahead and sell 1/4 position in the U.S. Oil Fund (AMEX:USO) at the bid of $52.53.

Jane Fox : 3/28/2007 10:15:16 AM

ER is the only market above its daily open so if you want to take a short you should now use ES or YM. Link

Jane Fox : 3/28/2007 10:12:47 AM

QM is bumping up against $65.00 and I think it will break today. How is that for stepping out on a limb?

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2007 10:12:18 AM

US Oil Fund (USO) Link ... today's trade at $52.00 triggers a "triple top" buy signal. Big test at trend would be $54.00. Should not MONTHLY R2 at $54.23.

Bull's target from 03/20/07 profile is $54.00.

Jane Fox : 3/28/2007 10:10:12 AM

Here is my chart of USO. Very nice break of resistance. I am long USO. Link

Keene Little : 3/28/2007 10:08:58 AM

On the YM long I would now pull my stop up to a few ticks to a new low. In fact if stopped out of the long I'd reverse short and use a 20-pt stop.

Jane Fox : 3/28/2007 10:19:27 AM

A TRIN at 0.85 is mostly neutral but enough of a torn in my side that I cannot feel totally safe on the short side.

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2007 10:06:59 AM

US Oil Fund (USO) $52.71 +2.93% ... gets the trade at MONTHLY R1.

Jane Fox : 3/28/2007 10:05:59 AM

Here is the chart of the crude's Emini with the resistance at 65.00. Just can't seem to break it and hold. Link

Jane Fox : 3/28/2007 10:04:15 AM

This is taking too long and I am out of my short for now. I will get back in later if I get the opportunity.

Keene Little : 3/28/2007 10:03:44 AM

YM tags 12400. It's a good spot to try a long and then reverse short at 12380 if it continues to drop now.

Jeff Bailey : 3/28/2007 10:02:09 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 3/28/2007 9:57:47 AM

With ER you have the yearly open at 805.50 so you could use that level and put a stop just above it.

Jane Fox : 3/28/2007 9:57:12 AM

YM's daily high is just too far off and NQ seems to be the stronger market today.

Jane Fox : 3/28/2007 9:56:28 AM

This may be a good spot to get short with a stop just above daily highs. I would use ES or ER.

Keene Little : 3/28/2007 9:54:08 AM

Keep an eye on YM 12400 since it hasn't been tagged yet. That could be a good time to try a long if the short term charts are showing some bullish divergences, which the 5-min looks like it will.

Keene Little : 3/28/2007 9:52:37 AM

This is not what I'd call a bounce so a minor new low below DOW 12330 might be just the completion of the leg down from yesterday afternoon.

Keene Little : 3/28/2007 9:51:03 AM

DOW held 12330 on the nose so now if we get a bounce followed by a continuation lower it will be a good sell signal. Otherwise so far we're only in a potential bull flag.

Keene Little : 3/28/2007 9:48:46 AM

GOOG is in the green. No fear there.

Jane Fox : 3/28/2007 9:47:34 AM

AD volume continues to make new daily lows. At least you know which side to be on today, just like yesterday.

Keene Little : 3/28/2007 9:46:24 AM

The techs are getting some early lovin' with an early bump back up from a higher low in the futures. They are also down less than the big caps.

Jane Fox : 3/28/2007 9:43:26 AM

ES's open is 1434 and below 1434 your number is +2 as well.

Keene Little : 3/28/2007 9:43:24 AM

This is where the DOW needs to find support, or else.

Jane Fox : 3/28/2007 9:39:27 AM

ER's open was 804.60 so below 804.60 its number is +2, only above monthly open.

Keene Little : 3/28/2007 9:38:59 AM

SPX has similar potential support just under 1421 (shallow parallel down-channel from last week's high and two equal legs down from Tuesday afternoon).

Jane Fox : 3/28/2007 9:38:00 AM

VIX is on the bears side and opens well above its PDH however, the TRIN is not picking sides at 0.92.

Keene Little : 3/28/2007 9:36:54 AM

The other reason DOW 12330 could find support is because two equal legs down from the high on Monday afternoon is at 12329. If that doesn't hold then it will add to the likelihood that this will not be just a pullback.

Jane Fox : 3/28/2007 9:36:45 AM

AD line -1195 and of course AD volume is under 0. The bears have the ball.

Jane Fox : 3/28/2007 9:32:08 AM

Now here are the really interesting charts. Please remember the futures exchanges have different closes so the overnight session differ from one to another.

Of course the most dramatic chart is the chart of Oil which took its jump during its regular session. I use crude's Emini QM traded on the NYMEX because my big contract (CL) is on a 20 minute delay and it made a high of 66.80 and currently trading at 64.10 still under its resistance at 65.00. This obviously will be a very hard resistance to break. (I will show a chart of QM later).

Then we have Gold and it is quite interesting how it reacted to the news. First of all it (using gold's Emini YG) broke to a new daily high at 668.30, retraced but then once again took off and during its overnight session broke its PDH at 668.30 and made a ON high of 669.90.

US $ broke its PDL overnight. Link

Tab Gilles : 3/28/2007 9:31:48 AM

Oil Service (OIH)Will it break over $150? Link Link Link

Jane Fox : 3/28/2007 9:20:20 AM

During Globex's overnight session a rumor started that Iran fired at a US naval ship and the futures reacted to it and fell. Then everyone realized the news was incorrect, breathed a sigh of relief and the futures reacted once again and jumped back up but unfortunately not all the way back to where they closed. What you have here though is some very good information about support. Those overnight lows should be noted because they may serve as support intraday. Case in point, NQ has retested its ON low and it held, ER has almost tested its overnight low and your weaker market YM even made a lower low art 8:30 (durable goods report?). Link

Keene Little : 3/28/2007 9:10:23 AM

With the flight to precious metals the setup for the short play has been busted and you should have been stopped out of any short plays with the overnight spike back up. It was a good setup with a tight stop so it was worth a try but now you should be out.

Keene Little : 3/28/2007 9:07:49 AM

Using YM, watch the bottom of a parallel channel from last week's high, currently near 12400, for support. If this morning's decline is going to be part of a bull flag and not something more bearish than that then the potential flag pattern should hold up price. A drop below 12400 would suggest the 3rd of a 3rd wave down is in progress. For the DOW this level will be near 12330 at the open, which is also near the highs in early March and may offer good support. Link

Jane Fox : 3/28/2007 9:01:45 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- New Century Financial Corp. reportedly could file for bankruptcy protection from creditors by Saturday in a move that's grown more likely since the subprime mortgage company's delisting from the New York Stock Exchange two weeks ago.

The New York Times reported Wednesday that the Irvine, Calif., company's trying to find financing that would allow it to reorganize under Chapter 11 status or sell itself through a prepackaged bankruptcy filing.

New Century's most valuable asset, the Times said, is the software platform it uses to make loans.

New Century (NEWC) will first see the initial bids due 11 a.m. Thursday for 13,000 residential loans totaling $2.48 billion being auctioned off by Morgan Stanley.

After that, at least three bidders will be selected to perform due diligence on the assets and submit final bids, according to an ad by Morgan Stanley that ran in The Wall Street Journal late last week.

Jane Fox : 3/28/2007 9:00:34 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Beazer Homes saw its shares fall more than 10% ahead of the open Wednesday, retreating as the company said federal authorities have requested documents regarding its mortgage business.

"Beazer Homes has been in contact with the U.S. Attorney's Office and, at this time, there have been no allegations of any wrongdoing," the company said in a press release.

At the same time, Atlanta-based Beazer (BZH) BZH31.41, -0.91, -2.8%) attacked comments made by an FBI agent in different media reports and said they were unauthorized.

On Wednesday, The Wall Street Journal quoted Ken Lucas, an FBI spokesman in Charlotte, N.C., as saying, "There are potentially all sorts of fraud issues associated with Beazer to include corporate, mortgage or investments in varying degrees." Lucas was also quoted in a BusinessWeek article, touching off selling in Beazer shares after Tuesday's close of regular trading.

According to Beazer, the U.S. Attorney's office told the company that "the statements by the FBI and published by BusinessWeek were not authorized and should not have been made."

Jane Fox : 3/28/2007 8:58:22 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Crude-oil futures briefly spiked to a high above $68 a barrel in after-hours trade Tuesday on concerns about escalating tensions between Iran and the West.

Crude touched a high of $68.09 a barrel in electronic trade, more than $5 above its regular-session closing price of $62.93 a barrel. Crude futures were last quoted at $64.48 a barrel.

Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at vice president of Alaron Trading, said a rumor had swept through the market after the close that Iran had attacked a U.S. ship that was engaged in war games in the Persian Gulf. "The U.S. and the U.K. are engaged in war games in those waters so there's a lot of tension," said Flynn. A Pentagon spokesman would not discuss the matter.

"We don't have anything on that," said spokesman James Turner. The U.S. has two aircraft carriers in the Persian Gulf, but there have been no reports of hostilities, he said.

Jane Fox : 3/28/2007 8:57:17 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Orders for durable goods climbed 2.5% in February as defense and non-defense aircraft orders bounced back following big declines to start off the year, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday.

Excluding transportation orders, however, orders for big-ticket items declined by 0.1% last month, the agency's data showed.

The rise in orders for durable goods was mostly powered by an 88.4% increase in orders for non-defense aircraft, eclipsing a big drop of 60.4% in January. In a similar vein, orders for defense aircraft and parts rose by 29.2% in February after falling by 58.8% in January.

Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had been expecting durable-goods orders to rise by 3.8% in February after falling by a revised 9.3% in January

Market Monitor Archives