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Keene Little : 3/29/2007 11:35:29 PM

Roadmaps for Friday:
DOW 60-min: Link
SPX 60-min: Link
NDX 60-min: Link
RUT 60-min: Link
GOOG 120-min: Link
CME 120-min: Link

And since we're following the gold contract:
June gold contract, 240-min, all-hours: Link

Keene Little : 3/29/2007 11:13:55 PM

Friday's pivot tables: Link and Link

OI Technical Staff : 3/29/2007 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Marc Eckelberry : 3/29/2007 9:39:18 PM

If the Yen reverses up, stocks will collapse. The lower Yen is the only reason I can see tech stocks still green with 66.50 oil and the Dell warning. Absurd. but we have to deal with the little overnight games.

Jane Fox : 3/29/2007 9:32:30 PM

Like I said Keene I love Sumutra - the coffee that is.

Marc Eckelberry : 3/29/2007 5:51:30 PM

Well said, Keene.

Keene Little : 3/29/2007 5:50:08 PM

BTW, I hope that we're not confusing readers by having such diverse opinions on something like gold. Marc and Jane are bullish on the shiny metal, for technical and fundamental reasons, while I'm bearish the metals also for technical and fundamental reasons (the fundamental being everything will sell off this time around, incuding gold).

While we joust with each other as to who's right (this time), I hope you take the information we provide, and why we believe in the trade, and then use that as part of your own fact finding to make your own trading decisions. My primary goal in taking this writing position has been to teach you to trade and not to have you blindly follow our trades.

If you don't understand why you're entering and exiting a trade then let me be blunt here--you don't belong in the trade. I think this gold trade is a great example where you can learn what each of us is seeing and why we're taking the trade, and more importantly why our stops are where they are. Then it's up to you to decide where to place YOUR money. Should be fun to see how this turns out.

Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2007 5:48:08 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List at this Link ...

Keene Little : 3/29/2007 5:39:29 PM

Marc, I think you're right. Gold has been trading pretty well off those Fib retracements from the Feb high to the March low. It spiked below the 38% this morning but only briefly, and that was after sitting on the shelf at 50% at 670.10. So that would be first level of resistance and then as high as 673 if it takes until mid day to bounce up to its broken uptrend line. A good place for a stop on a short is just above 677 to keep it above the 62% retracement at 676.92. I added those Fibs to my bearish chart, the one you don't like (wink). Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2007 5:35:47 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2007 5:11:06 PM

May Crude Oil (cl07h) settled up $1.95, or +3.04% at $66.03. Winning streak build to 8 sessions. That the longest consecutive winning streak since 06/21/06 to 07/05/06 (9 sessions)!

Marc Eckelberry : 3/29/2007 5:06:52 PM

Keene, I think the one to watch is 670, 50% 2007.

Marc Eckelberry : 3/29/2007 5:05:45 PM

At least, volatility is back. I was out today and could not trade NQ, although I had an overnight short at 1799 which I closed out early...what a drag. Once again, it comes to show that when NQ loses weekly pivot on volume, it almost always hits weekly S1 (or vice versa for a bullish run).

Keene Little : 3/29/2007 4:58:27 PM

And I need it to break.

Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2007 4:58:16 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 3/29/2007 4:57:11 PM

I just need 661/665 to hold for now.

Marc Eckelberry : 3/29/2007 4:56:39 PM

Jeff, it was also 20 DMA support. Pretty clean bounce back up to above 10 and 50 dma. In fact, it looks like the 20 DMA is slowly making its way back up above 50 DMA, at which point a whole new crowd of late buyers, mainly chart watchers who wait for confirmation, will step in. It is going to be a doozy.

Marc Eckelberry : 3/29/2007 4:53:50 PM

Readers could be wiped out if there is a conflict with Iran while YG is closed. Until this sit is resolved, there will be plenty of gold buyers on dips.

Keene Little : 3/29/2007 4:49:06 PM

I happen to be short silver instead of gold but I'll short gold too if we get the breakdown. I've been waiting for confirmation of the break before I add to my position. The silver chart here (May contract) is an all-hours chart to show full price action and it's interesting that while gold is finding support at its 50-dma, silver is finding it to be resistance. Link

What I don't like about being short either gold or silver is the apparent sideways consolidation in both. In order for this to turn more bearish it has to turn down very soon, preferably tomorrow although as I showed on the gold chart it could bounce a little higher first. But if you're short, don't let it get above recent highs since that could result in a good run to the upside.

Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2007 4:48:55 PM

After plunging back down to 50% retracement ($661.65) of its 03/01/07 morning high ($682.00) to its 03/05/07 low ($641.30), yg07m looks to go out $668.00.

Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2007 4:39:58 PM

Forex Factory's economic calendar for 03/29/07 Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2007 4:39:23 PM

Swamped with economic data out of Japan later this evening ...

Marc Eckelberry : 3/29/2007 4:52:24 PM

Sorry Dan, I was out all morning. I am still in having lowered my stop below 20 DMA, it is safe back above 665. Since you booked profit at 674, you should still be ahead, although the whipping hurt many traders, including tech traders. I am just accumulating contracts, not even bothering to sell. I would buy any YG dip that does not violate today's lows. This is just backing and filing on what is a major multi year uptrend that should take us to 850. Current support is a virtual wall of MA between 661 and 666. Shorting gold between now and the summer is just as dangerous as shorting oil. Were you short techs after 1998? This is what gold is doing, look at the long term chart, it is a beauty. I don't understand the consistent gold bears, although it makes a market. I have been fielding all the reasons gold should fall ever since we broke 400, including last fall at 575. It doesn't work, Asians love gold and they are stashing it. You should to. I just can't be more bullish and forceful about anything. I have been pounding the table on this and you should be very well off if you accumulated with me.
I find shorting gold to be a waste of capital, far better shorts out there.

Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2007 4:36:00 PM

CNOOC earnings press release (earlier this morning) Link

Marc Eckelberry : 3/29/2007 4:35:34 PM

NQ chart: Link

Keene Little : 3/29/2007 4:34:55 PM

After breaking its uptrend line from March 14th, gold (June contract) looks like it might be trying to bounce back up to it, currently near 671.60. A retest and failure at the trend line (kiss goodbye) would be another great short entry for the next leg down. A stop on a short belongs at a new high, so just above 676.50. A break below 660 would confirm the bearish wave count. Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2007 4:33:04 PM

CNOOC even closed above its 61.8% ($88.25) of a bearish 12/29/06 high close to recent 02/27/07 low close.

Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2007 4:30:29 PM

CNOOC (CEO) $88.91 +5.20% ... oh my! Gonn'a give PTR a run for its money. Closed juuuuust above its 38.2% retracement ($88.87) from 09/11/06 low close to 12/29/06 high close.

Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2007 4:22:03 PM

1 million shares blocked at $141.61 in tonight's extended for the SPY.

SPY goes out $141.97 +0.10%

Keene Little : 3/29/2007 4:21:16 PM

End of day roadmaps updated for tomorrow:
DOW 60-min: Link
SPX 60-min: Link
NDX 60-min: Link
RUT 60-min: Link
GOOG 120-min: Link
CME 120-min: Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2007 4:17:42 PM

Good gravy! ... What a spread for the PTR-FD $3.70 x $4.40

PTR goes out $118.40 +3.13% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2007 4:12:29 PM

PMC-Sierra Business Outlook Update (Press Release) Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2007 4:10:40 PM

PMC-Sierra (PMCS) $6.30 -3.37% ... jumps to $6.45 extended.

Marc Eckelberry : 3/29/2007 4:10:27 PM

Basically, the bearish outlook for stocks that hit yesterday has not really changed, although COMP survived a test of 20 DMA. That will be the line in the sand (2400).

Marc Eckelberry : 3/29/2007 4:08:59 PM

Techs look in trouble unless NDX can get a close above 1780/1783 by tomorrow. Good comeback tough, but it is clear that oil needs to fall back, it was really what sparked the selling in NQ.

Marc Eckelberry : 3/29/2007 4:07:31 PM

NQ bounces off weekly S1 (on the nose). Gold finds support at 50 dma by the close and after an initial stop run, gold bulls are well in control. It was a good buying opportunity if you booked profits yesterday at 675 and re-entered on the 50 DMA test.

Jane Fox : 3/29/2007 4:02:15 PM

Have a good day y'all and C U all 2morrow.

Jane Fox : 3/29/2007 4:01:29 PM

I find it very interesting how ER's yearly open came into play today. Link

Jane Fox : 3/29/2007 3:59:38 PM

Economic Reports tomorrow include:

8:30a.m. Feb Personal Income. Expected: +0.3%. Previous: +1.0%.

8:30a.m. Feb Personal Spending. Expected: +0.3%. Previous: +0.5%.

9:45a.m. Mar Chicago PMI. Expected: 50.0. Previous: 47.9.

10:00a.m. End-Mar Reuters/U Of Mich Sentiment Index. Expected: 88.5. Previous: 88.8.

10:00a.m. Feb Construction Spending. Previous: -0.8%.

Keene Little : 3/29/2007 3:59:19 PM

The move down to today's low for NDX could fit as a 3rd wave in the move down from last week's high, or as another smaller degree 1st wave. The coming bounce will leave some clues as to which it is (shallow choppy bounce will likely be a 4th wave whereas a sharper stronger bounce would probably be another 2nd wave correction). Link

If it's going to be a shallow correction then only a minor new low into early next week would set up a larger bounce into the end of next week (shown in dark red). But to stay in synch with the other indices, as I've labeled them for the bearish scenario, we should get the sharper stronger bounce into tomorrow which would then set up a strong decline next week (shown in pink).

If the bulls have anything to say about this, they'll drive it back above 1800 in which case I'd be thinking only the long side.

Jane Fox : 3/29/2007 3:55:57 PM

Today you are going to hear all over the news how oil traded above $66/bl so be prepared.

Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2007 3:32:14 PM

US Oil Fund (USO) $53.80 +3.46% ... Note: entire position from 03/20/07 entry at $48.49 has been closed out. (my official profiles at least)

Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2007 3:30:42 PM

PetroChina (PTR) $118.00 +2.80% Link ... X gets the square.

Keene Little : 3/29/2007 3:29:26 PM

The DOW shows the same count as I have on the RUT. AGain, not clean and I don't particularly like the bearish wave count (overlap between the 1st and 4th waves and 3-wave moves down) but I've noticed that on the short term charts you sometimes have to look the other way on EW rules. The bearish count says we get a bounce into tomorrow/Monday that should top out under 12400 and then start down harder following that. A break below 12200 would confirm the next leg down has started. Link

The bullish count has to be taken seriously here because of the corrective nature of the pullback from last week's high. If it's a 2nd wave pullback, as labeled in green, then we've got a very strong rally ahead of us (as opposed to the RUT chart showing only a minor new high to finish the rally from March 14th). The bullish wave count points to DOW 13K+ so any break back above 12510 should have you trading the long side.

Jane Fox : 3/29/2007 3:25:21 PM

Once again I am sorry, I need to differentiate between my swing type trades and my day trades. Getting long the SPX here is a swing trade and not a day trade.

Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2007 3:23:06 PM

IndyMac (NDE) $33.09 +6.26% ... going "dot-com" on traders.

Jane Fox : 3/29/2007 3:20:00 PM

This is a very good place to try a long with a very clear spot for your stop. Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2007 3:13:23 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 3/29/2007 3:10:24 PM

This 60-min chart of the RUT shows the two EW counts at the moment. The move down from last week's high is not clean on this one either so it really is a toss-up here. I'm bearish the market so my preferred count is the bearish one (dark red) but this market has fooled me too many times not to respect the bullish potential, represented by the green wave count: Link

It looks good to call a low this afternoon for the end of wave-1 in a developing larger degree 3rd wave down from last week's high. This calls for a 2nd wave bounce into tomorrow and possibly early Monday. From there we should start to sell off harder. A break of 785-790 should clear the way lower.

But any rally back above 810 would likely see at least a push higher to the 820 area where it could complete a 5th wave of the rally up from March 14th and tag its broken uptrend line from August (and maybe close the gap just shy of 824).

Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2007 3:02:38 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2007 2:59:32 PM

Argentina's February Shopping Center Sales +9.9% On Year, +1.4% On Month

Keene Little : 3/29/2007 2:47:33 PM

Looks like the funds have decided that's enough of that, we have books to show by tomorrow's close! Got a little buy program that kicked in there and it was across the boards. If these little buying spikes get no follow through then we'll know something more bearish is afoot here (as in distribution hitting each little rally).

I haven't received any response to the question about what numbers are actually reflected on the books as relates to the 3-day rule on stock sales but I do vaguely remember something about why the funds need to show the stocks they owned as of the last day of the month.

Jane Fox : 3/29/2007 2:37:50 PM

Gold is still holding on to its support. Link

Keene Little : 3/29/2007 2:38:37 PM

Price action continues to be ugly and even today's decline looks choppy, making it look more like an ending pattern to the downside rather than the start of something more bearish. Maybe it's going to be one of those sneak attacks, this time on the bulls. If SPX manages to work its way down towards 1410, where the previous highs were in early March, we might see a bottom put in for at least a larger bounce. Link

If the bottom suddenly drops out and SPX drops through 1410 like a hot knife through butter then we'll know we're starting to unwind the EW count and you'll want to be short and just hang on. But that's a tough call to make from here so my best guess is that we'll first get at least a larger bounce soon.

Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2007 2:21:03 PM

LSI Logic (LSI) shareholders approve Agere merger (AGR)

Jane Fox : 3/29/2007 2:17:43 PM

It is one of those days when you start to wonder it the indicators you use to trade are really all that good but then I look back at how well they have served me in the past and I realize that in this job you have to play the averages, you have to play the odds and the odds today were that we would have a bullish day. I was wrong but I will be right another day. The important thing is that I didn't lose today I just didn't win and that is OK.

Jane Fox : 3/29/2007 2:14:19 PM

I sit in awe when the AD line is well above +1000 and the bears are able to take over and bring the markets to their knees. It just goes to show how strong they are now. Oh the trading I missed today.

Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2007 2:11:32 PM

Freeport McMoran (FCX) $64.66 +0.70% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2007 2:10:53 PM

DJ- BASE METALS: Comex copper closes above 200-day SMA

Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2007 2:10:17 PM

UK's Blair: No negotions with Iran over 15 hostages hostages

Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2007 2:02:09 PM

PetroChina (PTR) $117.28 +2.16% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2007 1:58:06 PM

Bullish Swing trade stopped alert for the U.S. Oil Fund (USO) at $53.45.

Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2007 1:47:49 PM

US Official: Russia has restored spy capability to cold war level

Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2007 1:46:40 PM

DJ- Letter Asks UK To Pull Troops Out of Iraq

Keene Little : 3/29/2007 1:45:11 PM

For now, looking at the SPX, use a downtrend line from Monday/Tuesday high as your guide. If that line gets broken then something more bullish is obvioulsy underway. If you're short, use that line to pull your stop down.

Keene Little : 3/29/2007 1:39:53 PM

While the short term EW pattern is not very helpful at the moment, I sure get the feeling this market is being held up for EOQ. They can't seem to get a rally to stick but just holding it up will give them better numbers. And if the funds are doing just enough buying to stem the bleeding it makes me wonder what next week could be like when that prop is removed.

Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2007 1:36:43 PM

USO $53.67 +3.21% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2007 1:36:14 PM

Thanks Keene! ... Target remains $54.00.

Keene Little : 3/29/2007 1:30:16 PM

Two equal legs up for USO would be just shy of $56, up near its 200-sma.

Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2007 1:31:18 PM

USO $53.82 +3.50% Link .... session high now .... $53.98.

First test of trend can be painful for bulls.

Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2007 1:29:22 PM

FeulCell Energy (FCEL) $8.20 -1.56% ... slips below Tuesday's low.

Keene Little : 3/29/2007 1:29:00 PM

Nice trades on USO, Jane and Jeff. Looks like a good upside target could be near $55 at the top of its up-channel, 200-ema and as Jane showed, recent highs (and then maybe a short play from there. Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2007 1:23:35 PM

Swing trade long raise stop alert ... with the U.S. Oil Fund (USO) $53.80 +3.44% ... approaching my target of $54.00.

Raise stop to $53.45.

Keene Little : 3/29/2007 1:22:49 PM

It's been a very choppy ride but it certainly has been a day where you wanted to short the gap up and then just hang on. The DOW has now lost nearly 100 points from its high.

Jane Fox : 3/29/2007 1:21:32 PM

USO has made a very nice move today. I am long USO. Link

Jane Fox : 3/29/2007 1:19:20 PM

Do you think crude could be having an affect on the markets today? Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2007 1:14:31 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 3/29/2007 1:10:41 PM

Great synopsis of those contracts Jane, thanks.

Keene Little : 3/29/2007 1:09:58 PM

CME's chart continues to look like it could be consolidating in a sideways triangle in preparation for breaking higher next month (as shown in light green on this 120-min chart: Link

The other alternatives are bearish or more immediately bullish. So I have all the bases oovered--this will either go up, down or sideways. Any questions? Now I can't be wrong (wink). The bearish count is similar to the broader market in that it could be building up for a swift decline. Any break below its last low at 518 would be a sell signal. And for the bulls, they need a break above 560 to confirm something more bullish is happening.

Jane Fox : 3/29/2007 1:05:10 PM

Keene thank you for your 12:45 post. I think it is a very good idea to go over these future contracts every once in a while. So with that said I will add some more information.

ES trades on the CME Globex exchange 0.25 pt = 1 tick = $12.50
ER trades on the CME Globex exchange 0.10 pt = 1 tick = $10.00
NQ trades on the CME Globex exchange 0.25 pt = 1 tick = $5.00
YM trades on the CBOT ECBOT exchange 1 pt = 1 tick = $5.00
QM trades on the NYMEX Comex exchange 0.025 = 1 tick = $12.50
ZG is the 100 OZ CBOT ECBOT exchange 0.10 = 1 tick = $10.00
ZN is the TBonds futures CBOT ECbot exchange 1/32 = 1 tick = $31.25

Keene Little : 3/29/2007 1:04:20 PM

Good Morning Keene, in regard to end of quarter window dressing: this may be a silly question, but don't stock transactions take 3 days to settle out, so technically, couldn't the traders start selling 3 days before end of quarter and still have their books look the way they want them for their clients? So, if they really wanted to start selling (or buying) now they could?

Somgya, this is a great question and for a long time I've always held the same belief. I had made a similar comment, last quarter I think it was, and someone corrected me and now I can't remember who it was (I think it was a reader). Maybe it was related to ETFs, just can't remember. Apparently I have a memory like a sieve on this so if Jane, Jeff or someone out there can remind me why this is not true, please let us know. Thanks.

Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2007 1:02:29 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2007 12:50:45 PM

BCE saying it is NOT in ongoing talks with private equity investor

Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2007 12:44:50 PM

Baker Hughes (BHI) $67.63 +2.19% ... sticks its head above 19.1% retracement ($67.22) from 06/02/06 high close to 09/14/06 low close.

Keene Little : 3/29/2007 12:45:13 PM

I recently subscribed to the MM newsletter and absolutely love it. Couple of questions though. How can you ask questions to the commentators? And what do some of the symbols stand for? ES, ER, YM specifically.

First, welcome to the Monitor Kevin. I hope it makes for better trading for you. I received your email through support@optioninvestor.com so that's certainly a good way to contact any of the writers here. Just put in your email who you would like your question/comment to go to.

In addition to that, I've offered my email address (at Support) because some people have trouble with their email address being blocked by optioninvestor. Also, the speed of the market sometimes makes it easier to get a fast response from me than going through the forwarding process at support. Your option on that.

As for the symbols we're using, we typically refer to the e-mini futures symbols most often traded at this site. The following are symbols that you'll see:
ES -- S&P500
NQ -- NDX (Nasdaq-100)
ER -- RUT (Russell-2000 small caps)
QM -- oil
YG -- gold
YI -- silver
ZN -- 10-year Note
ZB -- 30-year Bond

There are of course others and you should be able to find these at the broker you're using. There you will also find which month is the front month contract and how the symbology works (with your charting service as well). For example, I use QCharts and the symbol for the June contract on ES is ES07M. In my QuoteTracker charting program it's ESM7.

Good luck following along with us, do lots of research and by all means find a way to virtual trade with your broker before ever putting real money into the market. Especially with leveraged plays (options and futures), the school of hard knocks will exact a high tuition cost. No one escapes it so don't put a lot of money into trades, practice a LOT, and slowly (over a year or more) build up to where you're gaining confidence in your trading and your reading of the market (I'm still working on both).

Jane Fox : 3/29/2007 12:41:29 PM

I am out of my QM position because that is one volatile contract and you take profits when they come to you.

Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2007 12:39:47 PM

iShares Japan (EWJ) $14.67 +0.13% ... couple pennies below MONTHLY Pivot.

Jane Fox : 3/29/2007 12:36:26 PM

QM finally breaks $65.00 and that should be good news for my long GLD position. Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2007 12:35:54 PM

Japan: Large Retailer's Sales Y/Y +0.5% ... consensus was +0.5%. Previously -0.5%.

Jane Fox : 3/29/2007 12:35:05 PM

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Oil stocks resumed their upward trek Thursday as continued tensions in the Middle East sent crude-oil prices north of $65 a barrel.

By midday, the Amex Oil Index (XOI) was ahead 0.8%, the Amex Natural Gas Index (XNG) was up 0.3%, and the Philadelphia Oil Service Index ($OSX) was showing a 1.2% advance.

Crude-oil for May delivery jumped $1.21 to $65.29 a barrel in New York, with concerns over the fate of 15 British naval personnel being held by Iran and what it might mean for supplies from the oil-rich Gulf building a high risk premium on the crude market

Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2007 12:34:51 PM

Japan: Retail Sales Y/Y -0.2% consensus was for +0.01%. Previously -0.9%.

Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2007 12:30:42 PM

Swing trade bullish call alert for an additional one (1) of the PetroChina PTR June $120 Calls (PTR-FD) at the offer of $4.00, LIMITE $4.10.

PTR $117.85 +2.67%

Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2007 12:28:44 PM

VIX.X 15.13 +1.00% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2007 12:27:58 PM

PetroChina (PTR) $117.58 +2.42% ... moves into 02/26/07-02/27/07 gap. Supply should be limited to $118.93 and 61.8% retracement of 09/11/06 low close to recent 12/28/06 high close.

Keene Little : 3/29/2007 12:25:30 PM

GOOG has broken below the lows of the past two days and as I tried to draw on the 30-min chart it has that "rolling top" look to it. This is a bearish pattern (opposite to the saucer pattern at lows) but GOOG could see more chopping up and down over next few days before it lets go to the downside. But any rally back above this morning's high (which was just shy of its down-sloping 50-dma) should have you out of bearish plays on this stock. Link

Tab Gilles : 3/29/2007 12:25:27 PM

$WTIC $65.31 +$1.24 T. Boone Pickens calling for $70 very soon. Oil Service (OIH) etf$148 +$2.00 Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2007 12:24:58 PM

US Oil Fund (USO) $53.09 +2.09% ... clears MONTHLY R1 and 80.9% ($52.79) retracement from 12/01/06 relative high close to recent 01/18/07 low close.

Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2007 12:22:16 PM

Iran Aide: UK Forces Entered Iranian Waters At 6 Points

DJ- U.K. forces entered Iranian waters at six different points, an Iranian military official said Thursday, according to a report on Iran's official news service.

According to the IRNA report, which appears in the Farsi section of the news service's Web site, an Iranian Naval official said the 15 U.K. troops entered Iran's territorial waters in two navy vessels at six different places.

IRNA quoted the military official as saying that the U.K. troops' "entry and stay in our national territorial waters has been established by data recorded by the British sailors' own GPS."

The report also quoted the naval official as saying that the U.K. troops' violation of international laws has been filmed and documented by the Islamic Republic Coast Guard.

Wednesday, the Iranian Embassy in London said in a statement that the U.K. vessels seized by Iranian forces in the northern Persian Gulf were 0.5 kilometers into Iran's territorial waters, according to a Sky News television report.

Earlier Wednesday, the U.K. military said the vessels were 1.7 nautical miles inside Iraqi territorial waters when the Royal Navy personnel were seized by Iran, the Associated Press reported.

Vice Admiral Charles Style told reporters that the Iranians had provided a position on Sunday - a location that he said was in Iraqi waters.

By Tuesday, Iranian officials had given a revised position two miles east, placing the U.K. personnel inside Iranian waters - an assertion he said wasn't verified by GPS coordinates.

"It is hard to understand a legitimate reason for this change of coordinates," Style said. He gave the coordinates as 29.50.36 north and 048.43.08 east.

Keene Little : 3/29/2007 12:07:43 PM

NDX has dropped down to the bottom of a new down-channel for price action since Monday. If the bearish wave pattern is going to play out then price should drop through the bottom of the channel (1763 and dropping). If something more bullish is going to happen then we should see a rally from here or maybe slightly lower (but not breaking below the channel). Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2007 12:03:11 PM

Countrywide Financial (CFC) $34.15 +1.27% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2007 12:00:14 PM

IndyMac (NDE) $30.68 -1.50% ... after morning jump to $33.25.

Jane Fox : 3/29/2007 11:56:29 AM

Thar she goes!

Jane Fox : 3/29/2007 11:56:15 AM

I am taking a long QM (using the May contract) because I think QM will break 65 real soon.

Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2007 11:54:03 AM

Coeur D' Alene Mines (CDE) $4.17 (unch) ...

Jane Fox : 3/29/2007 11:53:24 AM

All markets to new daily lows except YM.

Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2007 11:51:07 AM

iShares Silver (SLV) down $2.10, or -1.57% at $131.18.

Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2007 11:50:24 AM

mini May Silver (yi07k) down $0.244 at 13.211.

Tab Gilles : 3/29/2007 11:47:25 AM

Nasdaq 100 ($NDX) Running out of momentum rolling over and it looks likely to retest its recent lows.

Daily chart: Link Weekly chart: Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2007 11:47:08 AM

StreetTracks Gold (GLD) down $0.94, or -1.42% at $65.11

Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2007 11:46:10 AM

yg07m -$9.90 at $663.10.

Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2007 11:43:09 AM

Daily Pivot Levels for mini June Gold (yg07m) based on yesterday's CBOT h/l/c ... 610.57, 641.43, Piv= 658.87, 689.73, 707.17.

Keene Little : 3/29/2007 11:37:55 AM

So far the choppy day that I expected is what we're getting. Not much to trade unless you're good at (and enjoy) slash attacks--get in and get out with quick trades. Not my cupa tea.

The patterns still leave a lot to be desired as far as figuring out what is going on here. The whole thing since last week's highs looks corrective and that makes it look like a bullish correction since those highs. Respect that possibility if you're short. The bullish interpretation, as shown in the green wave count on this SPX 30-min chart, says we could get a strong 3rd wave rally out of this (that would surely take us to new highs above February's). Link

But if we've got a sneaky decline going on here, which I don't doubt one bit since it would keep the sheeple from being scared away, then a corrective bounce today and into tomorrow could set up the next wave down, as per the bearish wave count in dark red.

The mega-bearish wave pattern (not shown on the above chart), as I alluded to on the NDX, says this small bounce will be followed by a very fast decline that would probably see 1380 before the week is out. I could be tempted to sell a break below yesterday's low based on that possibility.

Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2007 11:35:38 AM

CBOT YG follow up ... from what I've been able to uncover, and from sources I deem reliable, yesterday's trades stand.

I have not received a direct response from the CBOT.

Jane Fox : 3/29/2007 11:35:34 AM

BOSTON (MarketWatch) -- NeoPharm Inc. shares plunged on Thursday after the biotech group announced that the Food and Drug Administration has asked the company to conduct another extensive clinical trial for its brain cancer drug cintredekin besudotox before it will consider approving the drug.

Shares of NeoPharm (NEOL) sank 18% to $1.54 in midday trading.

In a statement early Thursday, the Waukegan, Ill.-based biotech group said that the FDA wants it to run another Phase III clinical trial for cintredekin besudotox. NeoPharm has applied to have the drug approved to treat glioblastoma multiforme, a common but very deadly type of brain tumor.

Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2007 11:31:40 AM

Sometimes there can be news in a sector, even in non-component stocks that can have the equity sector moving inverse the the commodity.

Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2007 11:28:26 AM

Gold Reserve (AMEX:GRZ) $6.92 +4.84% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2007 11:27:37 AM

Rio Narcea Gold Mine (AMEX:RNO) $4.06 +5.45% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2007 11:21:21 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Jane Fox : 3/29/2007 11:06:56 AM

NQ breaks its overnight low, ER tags its ON low and finds support. Both ES and YM have yet to test their ON lows for support.

Keene Little : 3/29/2007 11:05:27 AM

The techs are the first ones to close this morning's gap but the others may not be far behind. Looking at the pattern for the NDX has me thinking two separate scenarios. The pullback since last week's high has a corrective look to it with all the overlapping highs and lows. Based on that, the first scenario says we'll see an upside resolution here soon.

The second scenario is bearish since it could be sitting at the edge of a cliff here and ready to do some serious unwinding of an EW count that now shows the need for multiple 3rd waves to unwind the build up of 1st and 2nd waves in the drop from last week's high. If it's to be the latter scenario then we could see NDX 1740 in a heartbeat (it would close a gap at 1741.78 from March 19th). Be careful if you're looking for a bounce here.

Jane Fox : 3/29/2007 11:04:03 AM

Dateline WSJ - WASHINGTON -- A $123.2 billion wartime spending bill cleared the Senate, moving Congress ever closer to a historic veto confrontation with President Bush over Democratic-backed provisions calling for a withdrawal of most U.S. forces from Iraq next year.

The 51-47 vote on final passage of the bill, S-965, ended four days of debate in which Republicans failed to strip out the Senate withdrawal language which must now be reconciled with even tougher provisions adopted by the House last week.

Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2007 11:03:48 AM

United Health (UNH) $52.55 -4.05% ... downgraded at UBS to "neutral" this morning.

Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2007 11:02:39 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 3/29/2007 11:01:54 AM

Dateline WSJ - Senate passes war-spending legislation calling for troops to leave Iraq by March 2008.

Jane Fox : 3/29/2007 10:59:23 AM

I just took a look at my SPX charts and February 20th close was 1410 so I then looked at February 21st and its close was 1435. I don't know from where Faber's is getting his numbers.

Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2007 10:58:54 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List found at this Link ... Note the "flip" in 5-dayNet% between SIL and CDE from initial profile of CDE.

Jane Fox : 3/29/2007 10:54:23 AM

March 29 (Bloomberg) -- A rise in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index above its Feb. 20 close of 1459.68 will be "very difficult" and U.S. stocks are more likely to fall, said Marc Faber, an investor who predicted the stock market crash in 1987.

"We're right where the market would usually be at the start of a bear market," Faber said in an interview from Copenhagen. "Financial stocks are not performing well and this is usually a bad indicator for the market."

Inflation and rising oil prices may restrain economic growth and keep stocks from completing a rebound from the Feb. 27 rout that sent the S&P 500 down the most in four years, Faber said.

"What the government publishes as inflation isn't the cost- of-living increase for the average household in America," said Faber, who oversees $300 million at Hong Kong-based Marc Faber Ltd. He said increases in corn, wheat, soybean and meat prices have driven food costs up for most Americans.

Declines could be greater in emerging markets, including China, as rising oil prices and defaults on mortgages by the riskiest borrowers in the U.S. reduce the cash available for investments in those markets, Faber said. Growth in the U.S. current account deficit has boosted global equities, he added.

Jane Fox : 3/29/2007 10:49:05 AM

VIX to new daily highs means short
AD line above +1000 means long
New number system is saying short
With these kind of mixed signals I will just stay out for now. Dang it I was hoping today would be easier.

Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2007 10:45:40 AM

Bullish swing trade long raise stop alert ... for the 1/4 position in Coeur D' Alene Mines (CDE) $4.17 (unch) .... to $3.97.

Jane Fox : 3/29/2007 10:44:26 AM

Not safe on either side today.

Jane Fox : 3/29/2007 10:44:15 AM

TICKS -800 now.

Jane Fox : 3/29/2007 10:39:25 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - The rate of delinquencies on home equity loans rose about 7% in the fourth quarter from the third quarter in the latest sign of cracks in the credit business attached to real estate.

The overall rate of delinquencies among all eight loan categories tracked by the American Bankers Association crept up to 2.23% in the fourth quarter from 2.12%, staying close to the 10-year average rate of 2.20%.

Keene Little : 3/29/2007 10:38:06 AM

For those who don't get the OptionInvestor (or PremierInvestor) Newsletter, here's the oil chart I had used in last night's Wrap that shows why oil could be struggling with the $65 level. Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2007 10:37:58 AM

I'm having some router problems this morning. I think they've been resolved.

Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2007 10:37:24 AM

10:35 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 3/29/2007 10:33:51 AM

Just look at that resistance at 65.00. Link

Jane Fox : 3/29/2007 10:32:31 AM

Have a plan on where you will put your stops and limits BEFORE you click the buy button.

Jane Fox : 3/29/2007 10:31:34 AM

... also be very careful on your entries and don't overstay your welcome.

Jane Fox : 3/29/2007 10:31:11 AM

I thought that today may be an easy day to trade but I think a lot of the volatility we love so much was used up overnight. I certainly would not try shorting this market but if you decide to get long you will have to have the patience of Job to stay in the trade.

Keene Little : 3/29/2007 10:28:26 AM

You're right Jane, and it's why the number of ETFs has exploded. They're great trading vehicles. It's that "shorting on a down tick" that may get the market in trouble some day with these but we'll have to see how that plays out.

Jane Fox : 3/29/2007 10:24:32 AM

Your comment about XAU and the price of Gold and silver is why I only use GLD and USO to trade Gold and Oil. The ETFs are still stocks and are, like you said, influenced by the stock market whereas GLD and USO only are influenced by the price of Gold and Oil. These two are as close to buying the futures as you can get but without the leverage.

Keene Little : 3/29/2007 10:19:54 AM

Mornin Keene, Why (if gold and silver are down) is the XAU up? They don't seem to move in sync.

This is a good question Paul. While they will typically trade in synch over time, the XAU can be influenced on a day-to-day basis by the stock market more than the metals. After all they are mining companies and not necessarily holders of the metal (although they obviously own the metal also). If analysts think they've hedged the metals prices well, or poorly, then the stock prices of the companies will reflect that. With the market up today, it's not surprising to see the miners up as well.

We see the same thing between the oil stocks (OIX) and the price of oil. Over time they'll follow each other but many times they'll get out of synch for weeks at a time.

Here's a chart comparing gold and XAU xince last August. This is another reason I've been bearish the metals. While gold made a new high in February of this year (but not above May 2006), XAU made a lower high. Link

This bearish non-confirmation suggested the metal prices were being run up by other factors (easy credit and excess liquidity for one) that probably wouldn't last. So after the first sharp drop from that February high I've been watching the bounce as an opportunity to get short. I expect the stocks to also be a good short, just not necessarily in synch tick by tick.

Jane Fox : 3/29/2007 10:08:57 AM

ER's daily lows are 805.60 and yearly open is 805.50. Coincidence? Maybe.

Jane Fox : 3/29/2007 10:07:56 AM

TICKS +800 - see!

Jane Fox : 3/29/2007 10:08:04 AM

A short this morning would a have worked out, as Keene pointed out, but as far as I am concerned it was a trade that would have been against the odds and I would and did not take it. I will wait for a buy to set up before I put my money on the table.

Keene Little : 3/29/2007 10:01:13 AM

As it turns out, taking a short off that 12462 setup on YM that I showed before would have been a nice play. Too bad I didn't take it. I'd be a very rich man for all the trades I didn't take and I'm poorer for all the ones I held too long. You probably can't relate to that though (wink).

It's always good to repeat the phrase "I'd rather not be in a trade I'd like to be in than to be in a trade I'd rather not be in." Pilots have a similar statement when things aren't going well in the airplane--"I'd rather be on the ground wishing I were flying than to be in an airplane wishing I were on the ground."

Jane Fox : 3/29/2007 9:55:38 AM

Patience is virture, Patience is virture.

Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2007 9:55:36 AM

Dynamic Materials (BOOM) $32.97 +0.30% Link ...

Jane Fox : 3/29/2007 9:53:44 AM

The only thing that is not jiving with the bullishness is my number system. Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2007 9:53:40 AM

U.S. Steel Buying Loone Star Tech for $2.1 Billion ... AP Story Link

X $99.31 +1.74% Link

LSS $66.35 +36.94% Link ...

Jane Fox : 3/29/2007 9:51:31 AM

AD line is +1560, AD volume to new daily highs and VIX is hugging its daily lows. Can this be any clearer?

Keene Little : 3/29/2007 9:48:49 AM

Futures have given up the post-8:30 rally and now we watch to see if cash continues to drop from the early morning euphoria. I've been expecting a bounce today that could lead into tomorrow but it will probably be choppy and chew up more time than price (hold up into the end of the week/month/quarter), so watch the chop and whipsaws.

Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2007 9:48:12 AM

Caterpillar to offer electric mining truck in '08 ... Reuters Story Link

Jane Fox : 3/29/2007 9:44:30 AM

Here is a chart of the Wilshire 5000, the entire market. Link

Jane Fox : 3/29/2007 9:43:42 AM

SPX's 50EMA seems to be support now and this may be a very good place to try a long swing type trade because you have a very clear idea of where to put your stop. Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2007 9:40:56 AM

Countrywide Financial (CFC) $34.55 +2.46% ... trader that may be put, I'd be looking at protecting trade.

Jane Fox : 3/29/2007 9:40:47 AM

DAYTON, Ohio (MarketWatch) -- Goldman Sachs' top economist believes the odds of a full on U.S. economic downturn have risen.

"There are a lot of credible arguments" that suggest the U.S. economy could soon face a recession, said Jan Hatzius, Goldman's chief economist. He was speaking as part of a panel discussion at the RISE Forum held at the University of Dayton in Ohio Thursday.

The forecaster noted that the size of the housing market and the trouble it now faces is comparable to the stock market bubble of the late 1990s and early part of this decade.

Meanwhile, "the economy is already pretty weak" and periods of protracted subpar growth are a particularly vulnerable period for any expansion, he said.

Add to that, "inflation is still too high from the Fed's perspective," which limits the central bank's willingness to cut interest rates to help boost growth, Hatzius said.

The economist's comments came on a day when the government reported upwardly revised data for the fourth quarter gross domestic product. But even with the upward revision, U.S. GDP only grew by a 2.5% annualized rate, a level most policy makers consider below the economy's potential.

Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2007 9:40:09 AM

IndyMac (NDE) $33.24 +6.74% ... good decision yesterday to close out the put.

Keene Little : 3/29/2007 9:40:01 AM

Couldn't have said it better and here's a real live report from someone who's living through the housing problem (thanks Dave):

Housing ripple is not over. Sub prime may be tip of iceberg! Visiting a sick friend in Melbourne, Fl yesterday - his wife is a realtor and has been doing well for last three years. She was selling homes last year when no one else was. This year she has sold none! The buyer pool is closed completely. Not even any lookers. Everyone is now convinced the prices will go lower. They are already back to 2004 levels.

Houses are now sitting empty which was not the case last year. Some owners have walked. Banks are taken short offers, i.e. they have a mortgage of 400K and someone offers to take property off their hands at 350K and they are biting. They lose 50K and former owner has his credit destroyed. Now these are homes in the 400 to 600K range. Not exactly your sub prime market. Your pyramid theory at work I do believe. These are working neighborhoods of middle class professional families.

Now enter Bernanke. We are fighting inflation. I would add they are doing a very good job! They have created the housing bubble and pricked it. They are now going to slow the economy so not only will a lot of folks who bought at inflated prices not be able to sell they might not have any jobs to pay what they owe.

This set me to wondering if there is anyone on the Fed who has actually worked for a living. I mean run a business, made a payroll, fought competitors you know the things I and most people have to do to survive. My guess is not. They are a bunch of theoreticians who have lived off the largess of some University or think tank their entire lives.

I see the blip over growth number and all I think of is "get shorty" now! We have not seen the worst yet. And the Fed will not act until the trouble is so obvious even a third grader could figure it out.

I hope I am wrong but I doubt it.

Jeff Bailey : 3/29/2007 9:38:20 AM

BCE Inc. (BCE) $29.00 +11.35% ... higher on reports it is target of planned takeover.

Jane Fox : 3/29/2007 9:36:54 AM

VIX opens within its PDR and TRIN is below its PDR at 0.82

Jane Fox : 3/29/2007 9:36:26 AM

Sure enough the AD line opens above +1000, 1585. Also the AD volume is well above 0 and climbing.

Jane Fox : 3/29/2007 9:32:03 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- A trio of initial public offerings managed to get their deals done Thursday, but only after slashing their prices to stoke interest.

Although Aruba Networks (ARUN) and other recent IPOs have fared well, these three faced a dour market mood in pricing on Wednesday. In the biggest discount, SenoRx Inc. (SENO) priced 5.5 million shares at $8 a share, raising $44 million in its initial public offering on Thursday.

The Aliso Viejo, Calif., maker of medical devices for the diagnosis and treatment of breast cancer priced below its reduced range of $9-$10 a share.

Earlier, the company had issued an estimated price range of $11-$13 with underwriters Banc of America, Citigroup, Cowen & Co and Canaccord Adams Inc.

Super Micro Computer Inc. (SMCI) priced 8 million shares at $8 a share in a bid to raise $64 million in its IPO.

The San Jose, Calif. tech firm priced below its $9.50-$11.50 price range with underwriters Merrill Lynch, UBS Securities and Needham & Co.

Finally, GSI Technology Inc. (GSIT) said in a filing with regulators its IPO has been approved for listing on the Nasdaq under the symbol GSIT.

The tech firm set a price of $5.50 a share, below its estimated price range of $6.50-$8 a share.

Jane Fox : 3/29/2007 9:29:21 AM

QM (Crude's Emini) is once again testing 65.00 and is not able to break through. 65.00 is some major resistance for this market but I do think it will break because each time it tests 65 there will be less and less sellers and eventually the buyers will be able to over the sellers.

Keene Little : 3/29/2007 9:28:51 AM

Gaps don't always show up on the cash indices but yesterday's gaps would be closed at SPX 1428.76 (ES 1441), DOW 12398 (YM 12485) and RUT 802.27 (ER 809.80). NDX closed its gap yesterday and NQ missed it by 1.25 at 1810.25. So if we don't get an early failure of this gap up then those levels would be the next potential resistance levels to keep an eye on.

Marc Eckelberry : 3/29/2007 9:27:00 AM

Carry trade gap with dropping Yen.

Jane Fox : 3/29/2007 9:13:48 AM

Needless to say the upward revision to the GDP was not a good thing for my long GLD position. Look at what the US$ did in response (please be aware that my $ and Gold charts are on a 20 minute delay). On the other hand the price of Oil should help Gold because it is now breaking its overnight high but the $ has more influence of Gold than does crude.

Interestingly Tbonds dropped but have come back to test their overnight highs. Link

Keene Little : 3/29/2007 9:13:12 AM

So much for a little further to drop before the bounce gets started. This will be one of the largest gaps to the upside we've seen in a while. It actually makes me wonder if we're going to see a gap n crap. I wouldn't bet on that but looking at YM's early morning pattern here, where it already achieved two equal legs up off yesterday's low by hitting 12462, and hitting the broken trend line along the lows of the previous two days, it does make me wonder what will happen after the open. Link

Jane Fox : 3/29/2007 9:15:12 AM

The upward revision to the GDP was enough for the bulls to bring out the party hats and all but NQ were able to break their respective PDHs. I expect the AD line and volume to open well above 0 and the AD line may even be above +1000 telling us long only. Now if you also believe today will be a bullish day, which market would you trade? I will trade ER. Link

Jane Fox : 3/29/2007 9:00:12 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- First-time claims for state unemployment benefits fell to the lowest level in more than two months in the week ending March 24, the Labor Department reported Thursday.

Seasonally adjusted initial claims fell by 10,000 to 308,000.

The four-week average of new claims -- which economists consider a better gauge of underlying activity because it smoothes out one-time events such as holidays and weather -- fell by 7,250 to 316,750.

The initial-claims figure is the lowest since Jan. 13, while the four-week average is the lowest since Feb. 3.

Jane Fox : 3/29/2007 8:59:38 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The U.S. economy grew at a 2.5% annual pace in the final three months of 2006, slightly faster than the previous estimate of 2.2%, the Commerce Department reported Thursday.

The upward revision to gross domestic product mainly reflected higher prices for trucks that boosted vehicle inventories. Investments in software were revised slightly lower.

Economists surveyed by MarketWatch were expecting the 2.2% estimate to be unrevised. The economy grew 2% in the third quarter.

It was the third straight quarter with slower growth than the economy's long-term potential of about 3%. Economists expect another quarter of below-trend growth in the current quarter as well.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said Wednesday that the economy would likely grow at no more than a moderate pace until the housing market turns around.

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