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OI Technical Staff : 3/30/2007 9:59:59 PM

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Keene Little : 3/30/2007 8:20:21 PM

Jeff, I called them and they have room starting this weekend. I asked and they said you could bring your dog since they know dogs can help greatly with the healing of their patients. :-)

Keene Little : 3/30/2007 8:16:35 PM

End of day/week roadmaps, daily and hourly (120-min for GOOG and CME):
DOW: Link Link
SPX: Link Link
NDX: Link Link
RUT: Link Link
GOOG: Link Link
CME: Link Link
gold: Link Link

The gold charts have been included because we started following gold a little more closely since Marc and I have each been voicing our opinion as to why gold will either rally or drop. It's been a very good discussion about technical as well as fundamental reasons, all very valid reasons so I've got both the bullish and bearish wave counts on the charts with the key levels. We'll trade in the direction price takes us next. Notice how well gold has been trading its Fibs on both the daily and hourly charts.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2007 8:09:16 PM

Keene! Shady Acres is full! :)

Keene Little : 3/30/2007 8:01:06 PM

Monday's pivot tables (updated weekly and monthly as well): Link Link

Keene Little : 3/30/2007 7:58:28 PM

Jeff, when's the last time you got some rest? I know a nice home near where you live (wink).

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2007 7:38:29 PM

"Once was a gambler, his name was Jed, was having bad luck, could hardly keep the family fed. Then one day he bought some USO, and just like that his account began to grow."

Oil that is... black gold, Texas tea.

The next think you know ol Jed's a millionare, kinfolk said "Jed move away from there," said "Californy is the place you ought to be,"

but Jed's no fool and before sold his house, he thought better check things on the CME

Housing futures, regional that is.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2007 6:58:04 PM

Nevada takes top spot again for most dangerous state; North Dakota safest. ... CNNMoney Story Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2007 6:41:21 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link ... Given recent trade in USO at $54.00, combined with todays news regarding China/subsidies, I decided it might be wise to book profit in 03/23/07 PTR-FD position. See what global response is next week.

EWJ finished a little weak, and I do mean a little.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2007 6:09:07 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

NYSE volume for the month of March averages 3.05 billion shares/day, up 11% from February's 2.75 billion. On average, advancers outnumbered decliners by a 17:15 margin.

NASDAQ volume for the month of March averages 2.05 billion shares/day, down 5% from February's 2.16 billion. On average, decliners slightly outnumbered advancers by a 154:149 margin.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2007 5:48:56 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2007 5:42:46 PM

US Energy (USEG) $5.32 +0.18% ... some uranium exposure.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2007 5:29:02 PM

Interesting/informative site for "drillers" Link RIGZONE.com

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2007 5:35:31 PM

Hmmm .... If subsidies for China-based companies are going to be penalized, then I think today's action in the OIX.X and OIH may be telling regarding current, or continued tax-breaks/subsidies for any offshore drilling here in the U.S.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2007 5:00:55 PM

Dow Industrials Q1 Gainers with breadth negative at 16:14 ... AA +12.96%, T +10.29%, CAT +9.29%, UTX +3.97%, MO +2.32%.

Dow Industrials Q1 Losers JNJ -8.72%, HD -8.52%, C -7.83%, AXP -7.04%, MSFT -6.66%

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2007 5:00:30 PM

1st Quarter Ends for cash ...

Dow Dogs '07 finish up 0.18% (excluding dividends) with breadth positive at 6:4. T has barked the loudest +10.29% with MO +2.32% and VZ +1.83%.

C -7.83%, GE -4.97% and PFE -2.47% trail the pack.

Quarter's worth of dividends looks to be about $4.07/share.

Little Dogs (5-lowest priced of 10 dogs) up 0.79% (excluding dividends) with breadth negative at 3:2. Dividends look to be about $1.58/share for the quarter.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2007 4:16:31 PM

I get the feeling the last three days were "coiling." Two more weeks until tax deadline, IRA/SEP contributions.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2007 4:10:48 PM

CNOOC (CEO) $87.63 -1.43% ... after yesterday's surge. Not bad, not bad at all.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2007 3:58:34 PM

See what "shakes out" in China this weekend.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2007 3:58:05 PM

U.S Oil fund (USO) $53.38 -0.44% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2007 3:57:43 PM

Swing trade bullish call sell partial alert ... With today's "China news", I'd have to be a bit crazy not to close out one (1) of the PetroChina PTR June $120 Calls (PTR-FD) at the bid of $3.60 x $3.90.

PTR $117.13 -1.07% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2007 3:41:54 PM

CRB Index (CRY) daily interval bar chart (show previously) at this Link ... Oil is BIGGEST weighting.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2007 3:31:00 PM

03:11 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2007 3:27:20 PM

Not sure when corn was "limit down" but probably just after 10:30 AM EST

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2007 3:24:16 PM

CRB Index .... get that retracement "adjusted" and not 200-day SMA (316.28)

Keene Little : 3/30/2007 3:17:32 PM

Do you get the feeling today is coiling? I have a feeling we're going to get a big move on Monday. It probably comes as no surprise that I'm short so obviously my hope is that we're setting up for a strong 3rd of a 3rd wave down on Monday which would typically start with a gap down. OK, maybe in my dreams.

I've got to run off to an appointment and won't be able to stick around for the last 40 minutes here. I'll get the roadmap charts updated and posted before the end of the day and then re-post them Sunday night. Have a great weekend.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2007 3:16:18 PM

So is CAT Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2007 3:15:27 PM

And don't forget the MARKET Link and Link

SPG is listed on the NYSE.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2007 3:13:51 PM

03:11 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2007 3:10:52 PM

Bullish % REALestate at this Link ... I've tied some of SPG's prices to the various early month benchmarks. I suggest using Dorsey's PnF chart (true prices without fudging for dividends). SPG gave a triple top buy signal in early July. Only recently (March'07) do we see a double bottom sell signal (first sell signal since July'06).

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2007 2:58:35 PM

Don't forget the SECTOR

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2007 2:58:18 PM

Now... hang on before you act. 1 more VERY IMPORTANT bit of information we need.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2007 2:55:25 PM

I'd say we at least look at JULY.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2007 2:54:58 PM

See the period in SPG from Mar to May of last year? That's a starting point .... 3-months.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2007 2:53:46 PM

I'd have to think ... if a guy has been telling me about devastation in the housing market for the past 5-years, then a sharp decline tomorrow may not be likely.

I can see the "support" in the relative strength chart, where for whatever reason, the MARKET just won't let the stock go. If the MARKET does let it go, begins to believe in the "commercial will follow housing," then $90 target is what the MARKET may see in future.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2007 2:50:43 PM

Where's the BEST $2 bet?

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2007 2:50:28 PM

SPG's option montage at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2007 2:46:58 PM

Simon Property Group (SPG) $111.09 +1.90% Link ... OK ... Jean T is looking for a "$2 trade" on SPG, and I think to the bearish side, based on some previous chatter here in the MM.

The scenario is for the commercial real estate market here in the U.S. to follow the housing market trend.

PnF chart suggests (bearish vertical count to $90) that this scenario may be in play. That could be invalidated should SPG trade $116 (a triple top buy signal).

Relative Strength chart of SPG vs. SPY, as an interpretation of "is the stock losing favor vs. the broader market?" Link

Analysis: A $2 bet/contract is juuuuust about right in my opinion.

And there you have it. A scenario, followed by a "does the market agree?" and all the news you can choke a horse with over the past 5 years.

Did anyone catch the interview this morning with the one guy that said "I've been telling clients for years this was going to happen...."

Keene Little : 3/30/2007 2:42:45 PM

Jamming it to the upside now. Watch those downtrend lines (DOW 12400, SPX 1427) for resistance, or not.

Keene Little : 3/30/2007 2:38:08 PM

For the RUT I'm showing the possiblity for another leg up in a 2nd wave bounce that started from yesterday's low. This would say the others could do the same thing without it necessarily being bullish. But for safety sake I'd stop out of any short plays with a break of today's high. I'm not sure I'd be ready to try the long side based on this RUT chart so flat would be a good position while waiting for further clarity in that case. Link

The bullish potential is at least up to the 820 area and perhaps to close the gap just below 824. The downside potential is like the others and suggests a large sell off next week. Right now this could literally go either way so if you place your bets before the weekend just know exactly where you want your stop. Don't wait for Sunday/Monday to make your stop-decision since then you'll be doing it under fire and the "deer in the headlights" syndrome usually messes up your plans in that regard.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2007 2:36:51 PM

Simon Property Group (SPB) ... bar chart I started putting together a couple of days ago (03/27/07) Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2007 2:32:03 PM

VIX.X 14.86 -1.84% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2007 2:31:01 PM

Jean T alert! ... keep an eye on things at $113.30.

SPG $111.12 +1.75% ...

Marc Eckelberry : 3/30/2007 2:28:59 PM

Final note: please go to cash for the weekend. I won't be posting here next week, have a safe one.

Keene Little : 3/30/2007 2:24:51 PM

It's basically the same picture for SPX, although I've got a slight variation on the wave count because I'm calling the end of the rally from March 14th as Monday's truncated high instead of last week's high. It hasn't become clear yet which of the counts between the DOW and SPX could be correct. Both of course have the same bullish possibility from here. Even though I have the key bullish level at 1440, in reality I'd be a very nervous bear with a break of the downtrend line near 1427. Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2007 2:26:35 PM

Dow Chem has gone "dot.com" intra-day of late. For a stodgy old stock anyway.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2007 2:23:35 PM

Dow Chemical (DOW) $45.91 -0.28% ... thinking "fertilizer" ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2007 2:20:55 PM

September Corn PnF chart with today's action Link ... Most cattle/ethanol use harvested in October/November.

Keene Little : 3/30/2007 2:13:29 PM

The pattern in the DOW, similar to the one for NDX, shows the possibility for a big rally out of this (in which case the pullback from last week's high is a bull flag) or a big drop next week, in a 3rd of a 3rd wave down. If you want to get short this afternoon, the best place for a stop is just above the downtrend line from last week. Note that the DOW stopped right at its 50% retracement after stopping last week at its 62% retracement. Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2007 2:12:06 PM

That makes sense doesn't it?

Grain elevator owner in La Junta, CO tells me "best year ever?"

Corn farmer in North East Kansas tells me a month ago that his seed supplier said "if you want corn for spring planting, you better buy it now as I'm just about out."

Keene Little : 3/30/2007 2:08:52 PM

Hmm, Lynne's note to me (posted at 9:43) about corn could have been a prescient observation. Nice call Lynne! I hope you shorted corn yesterday. :-)

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2007 2:07:18 PM

Ethanol Demand Boosts Corn Planting ... AP Story Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2007 2:01:44 PM

Corn futures CNBC reporting "limit down"

Keene Little : 3/30/2007 1:53:09 PM

Looking at the RUT's bounce, the 2nd leg up would be 162% of the 1st one at 799.07. A 62% retracement of today's drop is at 799.29. Nice correlation there for a potential top to its bounce.

Keene Little : 3/30/2007 1:41:40 PM

This slow drift higher in equities looks bearish. We could see a spike up to hit some stops but so far I'm thinking this bounce is going to fail.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2007 1:42:22 PM

Marc: Yes. Not EVERYBODY trades the charts/technicals. Some stick with a scenario as they believe so strongly in it, even though they observe the scenario is not playing out to their liking. Some will meet margin call after margin call. Some have been known to leverage their house to the hilt in order to meet margin calls.

More dangerous is the trader that jumps from scenario to scenario, that they WANT to fit their reasoning for why a trade will eventually recover.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2007 1:35:54 PM

01:17 Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 3/30/2007 1:21:14 PM

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The White House has not heard anything about U.S. citizens being advised to leave Bahrain, a senior White House official said on Friday.

"I haven't heard anything," the official said when asked if Americans had been advised to leave Bahrain.

Rumors may have stemmed from a U.S. embassy note to U.S. residents posted on Thursday advising citizens to avoid being in areas where opposition activists plan to hold protests, which often turn violent.

Thanks Barb for that news link. Here's the full story: Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2007 1:19:55 PM

01:17 Watch found at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 3/30/2007 1:19:14 PM


Marc Eckelberry : 3/30/2007 1:17:33 PM

Gotta go folks, be safe. It was fun for a few days, but some things never change.

Marc Eckelberry : 3/30/2007 1:18:09 PM

Why the you in bold, Jeff (1:06:13)? Are you implying (God forbid) that others don't trade charts on this monitor? Trading is both science and art. If you don't have both, you never make the big bucks.

Marc Eckelberry : 3/30/2007 1:13:18 PM

Tip: use 30 mn, 10 ema for YG momentum.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2007 1:13:35 PM

If long the YM (12,411) from my early morning comment at WEEKLY Pivot and not aware of late-morning news, good time to move to the sidelines with YM 12,391.

Keene Little : 3/30/2007 1:12:01 PM

Not sure how recent your Navy info is, but 5th Flt's H.Q. is in Bahrain. Would think something like rumors of war/Americans need to leave would be news, if true. Maybe even our good buddies at the cheerleading network might consider a headline about it if for real.

I'm out of the loop for current Navy intel, Dave. If they told me anything they'd have to shoot me now. So I don't ask (wink). Cheerleading network? Real news? Don't make me laugh. On second thought, it makes for a good laugh.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2007 1:10:49 PM

Petroleo Brasil (PBR) $98.91 -2.37% Link ... Good gravy!

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2007 1:06:13 PM

I know you do Jane. So do I.

However, I do trade a scenario (I'm still more attentive to the yen carry trade scenario and USD/JPY), not inflation, not oil/dollar, not Greenspan/dollar, not Bernanke/dollar, not housing/dollar, not banking collapse/dollar.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2007 1:02:32 PM

Ecuador's Force Majeur (update)

DJ- Ecuadorean state oil firm Petroecuador said Friday it had declared earlier this week a force majeure on oil exports that were scheduled for delivery from March 25.

In a press statement, Petroecaudor president Carlos Pareja was quoted as saying the suspension in overseas deliveries of Napo and Oriente - the Andean nation's crude grades - comes in response to protests by residents near oil block 18, which is operated by Brazil's Petroleo Brasileiro (PBR).

Officials at the Rio de Janeiro headquarters of Petrobras, as the oil firm is known, were unable to immediately comment.

Pareja, in the statement, said: "Some of the local residents in the zone paralyzed production, leading to a drastic reduction in the crude that the country exports."

He added that the force majeure was declared to ensure adequate levels of oil inventories in Ecuador and to avoid penalties with clients.

The statement didn't indicate when the force majeure would be lifted, but an official at Petroecuador said the firm is already rescheduling April shipments on a case by case basis.

The protests at block 18, which began at the beginning of the month, brought Petrobras' production in the Amazonian field to a halt on March 9. Normally, Petrobras produces 35,000 barrels of crude a day at block 18.

Ecuador normally exports around 225,000 barrels of oil per day.

Jane Fox : 3/30/2007 1:01:21 PM

Jeff I so agree. However, I only trade the charts all the time and never listen to the "fundamentals" because they seem to change with what you read but the charts don't. I have no idea if Gold will be a "safe-haven" or not I just trade what I see.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2007 12:59:17 PM

;) ... How many dollar scenarios are out there now?

Better to forget what you believe, and trade what you observe.

For those that have never used stops and target, not a bad time to start!

Jane Fox : 3/30/2007 12:58:22 PM

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures made fresh gains Friday, trading about $8 an ounce higher for the week, as developments in Iran and China punctuated the metal's appeal as a safe-haven investment.

Gold for April delivery was last at $665.50 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange, up $4 for the session. The contract's trading 1.2% higher than last Friday's closing level, but it's down about 1% from the end of February.

"Save-haven status is being confirmed," said Neal Ryan, director of economic research at Blanchard & Co. "But don't forget the performance-asset aspect."

"It's easy to forget that gold has had a 19% annualized return over the past five years," he said in e-mailed comments. "Precious metals are a diversification component, but one that has had some awesome returns the last five years and we expect that trend to continue for another five."

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2007 12:56:29 PM

Actually, if true (Americans told to leave Bahrain), that could bring a "flight to quality" and bid for the dollar.

Keene Little : 3/30/2007 12:53:54 PM

Keene, supposedly all Americans were told to leave Bahrain because war is coming. Regards, Raj

I didn't hear that one. That would certainly influence the market! Thanks Raj, I certainly don't like the sounds of that. Let's hope it was just a rumor. With all the saber rattling going on on both sides, there will be lots of rumors.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2007 12:53:37 PM

StreetTracks Gold (GLD) $65.84 +0.28% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2007 12:52:21 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List at this Link

Keene Little : 3/30/2007 12:50:41 PM

I've now lowered my stop on my YG short to 674.20. Now it either works or I get stopped out (for less than $50 per contract). Let 'er rip now, you can't hurt me, much.

Jane Fox : 3/30/2007 12:49:13 PM

TRIN at +1.51 I wouldn't be trying any long positions but position yourself for another short. Remember we are into the time of day where trading can be treacherous - well more treacherous than normal.

Keene Little : 3/30/2007 12:48:23 PM

We've got breaks of those uptrend lines already so either that's it for the bounce or we're going to see more sideways action before another leg up. Tough call right here but nibbling on a few puts is not a bad idea. But then wait to see if it works before you buy any more.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2007 12:47:33 PM

Bernanke Speaks on Access to Credit ... AP Story (coverege) Link

Keene Little : 3/30/2007 12:44:54 PM

Another method for a short entry on this bounce is to simply wait for a break of the uptrend line from this morning's low. That way if it presses higher you won't get cut up trying to catch rising knives.

Keene Little : 3/30/2007 12:42:58 PM

Equivalent cash levels for two equal legs up are at SPX 1423.83, DOW 12376.90, 1771.53 and RUT 797.59.

Keene Little : 3/30/2007 12:40:43 PM

OK, two equal legs up gives me upside targets to watch for a short entry--ES 1434.75, YM 12448, NQ 1792.50 and ER 804.20. Just see if it looks like it's going to roll over from anywhere near those prices as an opportunity to test the short side. Prices could fail at a lower level (2nd leg up = 62% of the 1st leg up) so a drop back below the last small pullback would be a sell signal, stop at the high of this bounce. I'll get the cash prices next.

Jane Fox : 3/30/2007 12:38:35 PM

Bulls are now coming back and the TICKS are going crazy.

Marc Eckelberry : 3/30/2007 12:37:15 PM

NQ holds 20 DMA, another PPT just like yesterday. Where is it coming from?

Marc Eckelberry : 3/30/2007 12:36:37 PM

If you picked up gold, stops should be moved up to 667. Central bank manipulation is making a few rough days, but EOQ is over tonight.

Keene Little : 3/30/2007 12:35:51 PM

If gold drops back below 670 I think I'll bring my stop down to just above today's high. Not that I would want to admit Marc could be right (wink), but a new high after a drop below 670 would have me a nervous bear on this. It could just make another stab up to hit that broken uptrend line again, in which case I'll jump back in short.

But if the market is going to follow through on the initial move from about 11:00 AM (meaning equities will drop hard) then that might mean gold will continue to rally. No sense risking more than I have to. I'm short from 672.80 and my stop would be at 674.20. Nice and tight. Now waiting for it to drop below 669.50 as the trigger to lower my stop.

Marc Eckelberry : 3/30/2007 12:34:39 PM

No, I don;t think so.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2007 12:38:14 PM

Forex Currency ... initial reaction to U.S. Anti-Subsidy Laws To China Link

The BIGGEST 3 weighted currencies in the DXY (U.S. Dollar Index) are euro, yen, pound.

When you look at the above link, to get a "real time" feel for the DXY (no real time that we've ever been able to find anywhere) Forex places "top 3" at the top.

Jane Fox : 3/30/2007 12:26:50 PM

I can get individual currency pairs realtime it is just the DXY basket I want. Does IB have something like that?

Keene Little : 3/30/2007 12:26:48 PM

We got a bounce off that sharp drop, and now it's doing a little sideways shuffle. Another leg up to match the first bounce is where I'd look to get short and we'll see if a larger sell off starts this afternoon. A little fear of the dark (weekend) could cause some to get out of their long positions. End of month/quarter is essentially over now.

Jane Fox : 3/30/2007 12:24:48 PM

Very good suggestion Marc. What is the symbol for the $.

Jane Fox : 3/30/2007 12:23:39 PM

WE certainly have moved from buy the dips to sell the rallies.

Marc Eckelberry : 3/30/2007 12:23:30 PM

Jane, just use IB and check EUR futures.

Marc Eckelberry : 3/30/2007 12:22:46 PM

There will be no other choice if the dollar goes on a freefall and inflation perks up on higher debt.

Marc Eckelberry : 3/30/2007 12:21:50 PM

I thought of that Jeff, but the new trade will be to dump everything and buy gold, so there could be a shift. Still watching 670.

Jane Fox : 3/30/2007 12:20:47 PM

I sure wish my US $ chart was not on a 20 minute delay today.

Jane Fox : 3/30/2007 12:18:13 PM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The dollar abruptly changed course, falling sharply especially against the yen after the U.S. Commerce Department announced sanctions against paper imports from China on Friday, the first time in 23 years that U.S. duty law has been applied to imports from China.

Commerce Secretary Carlos Gutierrez said the U.S. has the right to apply countervailing duties to Chinese paper imports, which he said threaten U.S. products. He said Chinese producers and exporters of coated free sheet paper received subsidies ranging from 10.9% to 20.3%, putting U.S. producers at a disadvantage

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2007 12:17:15 PM

Folks ... if the yen carry trade is over, then those trading it do NOT want to be long gold/silver.

Marc Eckelberry : 3/30/2007 12:16:52 PM

China will retaliate by not supporting our debt. This is bad news. Really bad news.

Keene Little : 3/30/2007 12:16:13 PM

Terrific, the protectionist moves begin. And so begins the move towards global protectionist moves, including countries (including the U.S.) attempting to devalue their currencies in order to make them more competitive. This didn't work well for the world in the 1930's and it won't again.

This is the one fundamental reason where I completely agree with Marc as to why gold is where you'll want to be. I just happen to believe buying gold will be a better opportunity from a lower level first.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2007 12:15:01 PM


DJ- In one of the biggest deals of its kind, U.S. oil giant Exxon Mobil signs a deal with Saudi Aramco and Sinopec to expand a refinery in the southern province of Fujian. Saudi oil minister says the deal will ensure a stable supply to China.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2007 12:13:57 PM


DJ- Security Council expresses 'grave concern' over seizure of U.K. sailors and marines, while an Iranian news agency quotes one of the sailors admitting to entering Iran's waters. Iran releases third letter from U.K. sailor.

Marc Eckelberry : 3/30/2007 12:12:10 PM

Of course it's the tariff news, the dollar is falling apart and the Yen gets a bid. The carry trade is indeed over if this is true.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2007 12:11:55 PM

Major implications there Anti-Subsidy as that could really roil China's willingness to let currency float, if this turns into a geopolitical situatiion.

Marc Eckelberry : 3/30/2007 12:10:54 PM

Yes, Keene: Link

Keene Little : 3/30/2007 12:10:36 PM

It couldn't have been that China story, could it? Doesn't seem logical. Silly me, trying to get some logic here.

Keene Little : 3/30/2007 12:09:19 PM

Anybody find a reason for the big moves in the past hour? Equities, bonds, the dollar, metals--they all moved big and now reversing those moves. I haven't seen anything as to why.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2007 12:07:46 PM


DJ- U.S. Commerce Department says it will no longer exempt Chinese companies from U.S. anti-subsidy laws and agrees to consider a request for import protection by the U.S. paper industry.

Jane Fox : 3/30/2007 12:04:55 PM

... or maybe the 200 EMA at 68.00

Jane Fox : 3/30/2007 12:05:14 PM

QM will find resistance at 68.40 but that is quite a ways off.

Jane Fox : 3/30/2007 12:03:32 PM

As is this chart. Link

Jane Fox : 3/30/2007 12:02:49 PM

On the flip side this chart is looking better all the time. Link

Jane Fox : 3/30/2007 12:02:07 PM

Here is the US $. Not looking too good. Link

Jane Fox : 3/30/2007 12:00:38 PM

My $ is on a 20 mintue delay and it just fell out of bed and Tbonds took off. What happened?

Marc Eckelberry : 3/30/2007 12:00:33 PM

Just my humble opinion.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2007 11:59:33 AM

PetroChina (PTR) $117.38 -0.86% ...

Marc Eckelberry : 3/30/2007 11:59:01 AM

Shorting YM on the gap close at 12486 was a far better bear trade than selling gold in an international crisis.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2007 11:58:57 AM

US Oil Fund (USO) $54.00 +0.70% ...

Marc Eckelberry : 3/30/2007 11:57:53 AM

We will see how it behaves at 670.

Keene Little : 3/30/2007 11:57:48 AM

Could be Marc. But I like a gold short here. I have equally valid arguments for why gold will sell off with equities, and I like the chart setup. As I said, small risk to a stop, big potential to the downside. I'll take that kind of trade every day.

Marc Eckelberry : 3/30/2007 11:56:55 AM

Gold has been a carry trade, yes. But it will overcome those hurdles and be the investment of choice going forward. The bull in gold has only begun.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2007 11:55:47 AM

S&P 500 Index (SPX.X) 1,415.50 -0.49% ...

Marc Eckelberry : 3/30/2007 11:55:36 AM

Keene, you are stuck in a pattern that was a fluke in early March. Gold will be a refuge against inflation and uncertainty a it always has been. Gold does not have to trade with equities, look at the 90's. I have been trading gold for 20 years, March was a fluke.

Keene Little : 3/30/2007 11:55:29 AM

I'll play the bearish setup I see on gold's chart every day of the week, I don't care what the symbol. I know where the stop belongs and I see a very good profit potential. If stopped out, that's the game we play. I like my odds from here on the gold short.

Jane Fox : 3/30/2007 11:56:21 AM

US $ breaks to new daily lows and gives Gold the push it needed to break to new daily highs. Oil is getting a bid as well helping Gold's rally.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2007 11:55:16 AM

StreetTracks Gold (GLD) $66.14 +0.74% ...

Keene Little : 3/30/2007 11:54:15 AM

My stop is in, we'll see.

Marc Eckelberry : 3/30/2007 11:53:13 AM

I say buy dips above 670. Why fight millions of dollars with you 10K or less?

Keene Little : 3/30/2007 11:51:58 AM

Disagree Marc. Gold has been trading with equities and if equities are getting ready to drop, so will gold.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2007 11:51:19 AM

Coeur D' Alene Mines (CDE) $4.17 +0.24% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2007 11:50:36 AM

iShares Silver (SLV) $133.70 +0.87% ... nice bid.

Marc Eckelberry : 3/30/2007 11:50:28 AM

I disagree Keene. Gold is a commodity, you do not short a commodity that is taking off. It rarely reverses. This does not trade like stocks. Being stubborn against a bullish trend will make you broke.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2007 11:49:10 AM

alert! Ecuador Declalres Force Majeur On Oriente Crude Oil Exports

Jane Fox : 3/30/2007 11:49:09 AM

AD line is now -650 and once again the bears have overtaken the bulls. Amazing how this has happened two days in a row.

Keene Little : 3/30/2007 11:48:11 AM

Getting a good bounce in gold and it has now made it back up to the broken uptrend line from March 14th, currently at 672.80. This is a good place to short it with a stop just above 677.

Keene Little : 3/30/2007 11:45:22 AM

The decline from today's high looks impulsive, especially on the DOW and SPX, and that says short the next bounce with a stop at today's high.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2007 11:43:27 AM

YM 12,411 ... fell right through its DAILY Pivot, "bounce" came right back and found selling.

Bearish action.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2007 11:42:17 AM

USD/JPY has reversed course ... 117.60 ... daily pivot here.

Marc Eckelberry : 3/30/2007 11:37:01 AM

This is exactly why you can't short gold for more than a day trade. Now rocking again at 671.50.

Jane Fox : 3/30/2007 11:34:23 AM

All markets have made new daily lows but their PDLs are still intact.

Jane Fox : 3/30/2007 11:33:25 AM

Here is an update on Regan's VLO. This is why I don't like shorting a bullish stock but the double top forming would certainly give me more confidence. Even at that I would not try to get much more than down to $62.00. Link

Keene Little : 3/30/2007 11:32:21 AM

While we're looking at NDX, if the current pullback is just a correction to the rally off yesterday's low, watch for two equal legs down for support--NDX 1767.45 (NQ 1764.75). The bounce might not be over yet, even for the bearish wave count.

Marc Eckelberry : 3/30/2007 11:31:02 AM

And gold is back in the saddle, now at 670.

Jane Fox : 3/30/2007 11:30:38 AM

TRIN up to 1.51.

Keene Little : 3/30/2007 11:30:10 AM

This morning's larger bounce takes away the possibility for it to be a 4th wave correction that was shown as one of the possibilities in the NDX 60-min chart posted last night ( Link ) so now we're down to two possibilities as I see them, as shown in this updated chart: Link

The bounce off yesterday's low is either the start of something a lot more bullish, as per the green wave count, or it's another 2nd wave correction, as per the dark red count. A break of the downtrend line, currently just above 1792, would be a heads up for the more bullish possibility and then a break above the key level of 1802 would confirm it.

A break below yesterday's low, confirmed with a break below the uptrend line near 1745, would say the bearish pattern is in play. And the significance of the bearish pattern is that we're due a 3rd of a 3rd wave down. And that would mean a very ugly week next week, which is why I like the idea of being short over the weekend. Just keep in mind where your stop needs to be if you want to get short.

Jane Fox : 3/30/2007 11:29:17 AM

ER is now below 805.50 daily and yearly open so all bullish bets are off. VIX to new daily highs and AD volume is plunging. The bears are back.

Marc Eckelberry : 3/30/2007 11:28:19 AM

Party is over.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2007 11:27:22 AM

DJ- Dollar slips U.S. targeting of China with anti-subsidy laws

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2007 11:24:04 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2007 11:15:35 AM

Some chatter in recent sessions that the "yen carry trade" is over.

I'm not so certain.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2007 11:14:49 AM

Note the slight bid in gold/silver. Perhaps tie that in with USD/JPY resistance.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2007 11:08:06 AM

International Paper (IP) $36.60 +1.97% ... jumping on volume.

Marc Eckelberry : 3/30/2007 11:03:24 AM

If the Iranian situation resolves over the weekend, you will not want to be long oil or short stocks. Many traders will go flat before the day is over.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2007 11:02:38 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 3/30/2007 11:02:05 AM

Big spike in oil all of a sudden. CC numbers will be very low next month because of gas prices. Not quite reflected yet. Gold just moved up sharply. I keep accumulating the metal because I think the Iranians want higher oil and will keep posturing.

Keene Little : 3/30/2007 11:00:52 AM

While I wait for more evidence to let me know whether or not this bounce will get a little higher, I'm still leaning towards it being a correction of the decline from last week's high. I wish the pattern of the decline were more impulsive instead of looking like a correction to the March rally but as the 1st wave down (if that's what it is) I've seen enough ugly first waves to not let that sway me from my bearish interpretation of the larger pattern.

So, a way to play this today is with options. Go out to at least June and buy a few puts just in case we're topping in the bounce and get a sudden downside surprise. I like the idea of being short over the weekend. A stop needs to be above last week's high so use that as part of your calculations in determining how much to risk here.

Then if the trade starts working you can add to your position. If it keeps rallying, do NOT add to your position (in an effort to average down). That's the quickest way to blowing up your account. Only add to a winning position. Violate that rule and the odds are you're asking for trouble.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2007 10:59:16 AM

iShares Japan (EWJ) $14.72 +0.34% ...

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2007 10:58:01 AM

Dr. Bernanke: set to speak

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2007 10:57:22 AM

This week's Forex Calendar of Global Economic Reports at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2007 10:55:40 AM

Japan's Housing Starts Y/Y were down 9.9% (forecast -2.0%) versus previous -0.7%.

Marc Eckelberry : 3/30/2007 10:55:40 AM

I agree Jane, it is very sexy.

Marc Eckelberry : 3/30/2007 10:55:12 AM

Here is a chart I put up on March 27th of SPX, look at the monthly resistance and the 10 month ma: Link

Jane Fox : 3/30/2007 10:53:44 AM

Marc, believes it or not I like this indicator because of the color change. Isn't that silly? I am a visual person and I find the color change something that really appeals to me. I still have to show you how I use this indicator to daytrade but later.

Marc Eckelberry : 3/30/2007 10:53:18 AM

Oil and gold ill not drop much until Iran gets resolved.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2007 10:52:50 AM

YM 12,450 ... easing back from session high of 12,492 (DAILY R1 12,482 / WEEKLY Pivot 12,476)

Marc Eckelberry : 3/30/2007 10:51:23 AM

Jane, that is a very interesting indicator. But just plot the 10 month MA and see how that works as well, since it was the exact support this month and the breakdown in Nov 2000. A close below 10 month puts me 100% short.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2007 10:51:00 AM

USD/JPY 118.32 +0.22% ... yesterday's low was right at MONTHLY S1. Today's DAILY Pivot 117.60 with DAILY R1 untested at 118.54.

USD/JPY low/high so far today has been 117.46 / 118.38.

Jane Fox : 3/30/2007 10:47:42 AM

If ER breaks below 805.50 then all bullish bets are off.

Jane Fox : 3/30/2007 10:44:28 AM

Isn't it interesting how the weekly 50EMA (gold line on the last chart) was never even pierced on this last downturn.

Jane Fox : 3/30/2007 10:42:47 AM

Here is the jtHMA on the weekly SPX, the chart I use to "time" my longer term entries. I use this chart to get into my mutual fund positions in our 401(k)s and as you can see I am now currently into cash in those accounts. Once the weekly chart turns back green I will put my money back to work. However, if the monthly were red I would not be putting my money back to work and it would be staying in cash for those accounts do not have the option of trading the downside. Link

Jane Fox : 3/30/2007 10:35:09 AM

I have an indicator that I downloaded from the Tradestation forum called the jtHMA. I'm not entirely sure how the indicator has been derived but is based on MAs. I like because it is very visual. Just to give you an example of what this indicator looks like I will start with a monthly SPX chart. Do you think you could have used this indicator back in April 2003 when it turned green? Link

Jane Fox : 3/30/2007 10:30:02 AM

Now the art of trading comes into play. If you believe the bulls have ball then you will be watching to buy the dips. But what is a dip and how do you identify when that dip is over and the markets have indeed made a swing low and are heading higher? I will show you how I do it and how I try to make it as mechanical as I can.

Keene Little : 3/30/2007 10:29:18 AM

A good test for the RUT, to see if it has higher to go or not, would be a pullback to its broken downtrend line, currently near 800. Link

Jane Fox : 3/30/2007 10:17:45 AM

Here is how the markets are trading in relation to their respective PDRs. Link

Keene Little : 3/30/2007 10:16:40 AM

NDX jumped right up to its 62% retracement of this week's decline which was also exactly at the top of a parallel down-channel based off the trend line along the last two lows. So it was a good place to stall. The pullback from there looks corrective which could continue but I'm not seeing anything yet that tells me it has topped. Link

Jane Fox : 3/30/2007 10:15:06 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Consumer sentiment dipped slightly in March as gasoline prices rose. The Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment index fell to 88.4 in March from 91.3 in February and 88.8 in early March. The expectations index fell to 78.7 from 81.5, while the current conditions index fell to 103.5 from 106.7. "Although the March survey recorded complaints about rising gas prices as well as the widespread expectation of future increases in gas prices, these concerns did not dominate the recent loss in consumer confidence. This may change in the weeks ahead," said Richard Curtin, of the University of Michigan. Inflation expectations for the next five years remained at 2.9%.

Jane Fox : 3/30/2007 10:13:32 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Spending on U.S. construction projects unexpectedly rose by 0.3% in February, despite a 1.0% drop in outlays for private residential construction, the Commerce Department reported Friday. It's the eleventh straight monthly decline for private residential construction spending. Private nonresidential construction spending advanced by 2.3% in February, while spending on public construction projects rose by 0.4%. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch were expecting construction spending to fall by 0.5% in February.

Jane Fox : 3/30/2007 10:11:44 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Business conditions improved markedly in the Chicago region in March.

The Chicago purchasing managers index rose to 61.7% from 47.9% in February, according to media reports. It was the largest month-to-month gain in the 39-year history of the index.

It's the highest reading since April 2005.

Economists were expecting an increase to about 50%, according to a survey conducted by MarketWatch.

Readings over 50% indicate a majority of firms in the region reported improving conditions.

The new orders index jumped to 72.2% from 48.7%. It's the highest since March 2005.

The prices paid index fell to 59.1% from 63.2%, indicating lessen inflationary pressures.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2007 10:03:34 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 3/30/2007 10:03:09 AM

AD line is now a very healthy +1325. Yesterday the AD line was very healthy +1500 and the bears were able to bring the market to its knees. It was a very good lesson in playing the odds and shows us there is nothing 100% or guarantees in this business, it is all about the odds.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2007 9:56:53 AM

Will be looking long any pullback for the YM near DAILY Pivot of 12,411.

Keene Little : 3/30/2007 9:55:16 AM

SPX closed its gap down on Wednesday by tagging 1428.76.

Keene Little : 3/30/2007 9:53:44 AM

The DOW jumped right up to the intersection of trend lines for recent price action and has stalled. Link

Jane Fox : 3/30/2007 9:52:19 AM

The ER daily open on my last chart was incorrect. The daily open today is 805.50. I have corrected my charts.

Jane Fox : 3/30/2007 9:50:52 AM

The fellow who introduced me to my numbering system's name was Smith so I will call this my Smith numbering system. Here it is for today and it agrees with the internals. Link

Jane Fox : 3/30/2007 9:48:29 AM

AD volume to new daily highs and VIX to new daily lows. That is the formula for "buy the dips." Notice I am no longer saying "get long and stay long." Volatility has retuned and you cannot be complacent enough now to just get in a trade and stay there. That only works when volatility is low.

Jeff Bailey : 3/30/2007 9:46:33 AM

YM 12,475 ... taps WEEKLY Pivot.

Jane Fox : 3/30/2007 9:45:52 AM

Lynne here is a little more food for thought. You may be right.

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The U.S. Department of Agriculture said Friday in annual survey that it expects U.S. farmers to plant about 15% more corn acres than last year, as farmers take advantage of market demand for corn-based ethanol.

The USDA prospective plantings survey showed farmers intending to use 90.45 million acres for corn, above the 88 million acres predicted by analysts.

The 2007 survey also showed farmers planned 67.14 million acres of soybeans, down from 76.9 million planned in the previous survey. The number would be bearish for corn prices, but the final number of plantings will depend heavily on weather in the Midwest, which has endured rainstorms that lead to less corn planting, said Darin Newsom, an analyst with Omaha, Neb.-based DTN.

Keene Little : 3/30/2007 9:43:07 AM

Food for thought on some commodity observations (thanks Lynne):

Don't you think we have heard enough about corn to call a top? Farmers are devoting their entire crops, so that the US will buy it to make inefficient ethanol, which erodes existing pipes, and requires expensive infrastructure. More importantly, increasing the prices for all of us at the grocery store. I think someone will call a halt to the madness, and then what.....? down, down, down? How to short it without a futures account? CAT, DE, ADM?

This is just a fun observation, and i could be entirely wrong, but isn't this chat just so overdone? (i have also observed that when T.Boone Pickens appears n CNBC, we are pretty close to a at least a temporary top in oil).

I completely agree with you on ethanol, something that takes more energy than it produces (burning an ethanol/gasoline mix pruduces fewer BTUs and therefore your gas mileage suffers). I guess the farming lobby continues to be stronger than others in this respect.

Oil (May contract) is about to hit its 200-dma at 66.92 so just maybe...

Jane Fox : 3/30/2007 9:42:57 AM

TICKS +1000. The bulls have the ball.

Jane Fox : 3/30/2007 9:42:04 AM

Oh I love trades like that. In and out.

Jane Fox : 3/30/2007 9:41:51 AM

My scalps are only 15 ticks (1.50pts).

Jane Fox : 3/30/2007 9:40:40 AM

I am going to try a long ER position with a stop at 804.90.

Jane Fox : 3/30/2007 9:36:32 AM

VIX opens midrange.

Jane Fox : 3/30/2007 9:36:06 AM

AD line opened at +138 but has climbed to +482. AD volume above 0 and climbing.

Jane Fox : 3/30/2007 9:32:22 AM

Remember yesterday I was tongue wagging about how ER used its yearly open at 805.50 as support then as resistance. Guess where ER opened today? 805.50.

Keene Little : 3/30/2007 9:17:39 AM

The bounce off yesterday's low should continue today. Certainly the green futures is a help in that regard. The 8:30 reports were not as bullish as the spike up in futures would have us believe but it doesn't matter. If we're to get a correction to the decline from last week's high then it will be potentially choppy so there's whipsaw danger. A pullback followed by another push higher into this afternoon would be an ideal setup for a short play, perhaps to take home over the weekend as "insurance".

Jane Fox : 3/30/2007 9:17:27 AM

The US $ jumping on the 8:30 economic data is not good news for my GLD long and I see Gold is breaking its overnight lows as I type. For that matter so is Oil. Link

Jane Fox : 3/30/2007 9:10:33 AM

This is about as unreadable as an overnight session can get. All markets traded midrange to their respective PDRs, they all made higher highs and then lower lows then back up again. There is nothing here to work with unless we see a market break its overnight high or low. I suspect the AD line will open very close to 0. Link

Jane Fox : 3/30/2007 9:03:11 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - The Fed's stagflation dilemma is getting tougher. Core consumer prices increased at the fastest pace in six months during February, even as consumer spending slowed to the weakest in six months, according to government data released Friday.

The Fed's preferred measure of core inflation -- the core personal consumption price index -- rose 0.3% in February, the biggest gain since August, the Commerce Department reported Friday. Core inflation matched economists' expectations.

January's gain was revised from 0.3% to 0.2%, softening the blow to some extent.

On a year-over-year basis, core inflation ticked up to 2.4% from 2.2%, moving further away from the Fed's comfort zone of around 2%. It's the highest since September.

Overall consumer inflation increased 0.4% in February and is up 2.3% in the past year. Read the full government report.

If the inflation news weren't bad enough, the report also showed that real (inflation-adjusted) consumer spending growth slowed to 0.2%, the weakest gain since August. Spending had risen 0.3% in January.

Jane Fox : 3/30/2007 8:52:50 AM

Dateline WSJ - Americans made money during February at a rate faster than expected and beefed up their spending even though inflation accelerated, a sign of economic resilience.

Personal income increased at a seasonally adjusted rate of 0.6%, after climbing an unrevised 1.0% in January, the Commerce Department said Friday. Personal consumption, or spending, grew 0.6%, after an unrevised 0.5% rise in January.

Economists had expected a 0.3% increase in both income and spending, according to a survey by Dow Jones Newswires.

Disposable personal income -- income after taxes -- rose by 0.5%, following an unrevised 0.8% increase in January.

Most economic activity involves consumer spending, which was strong through the fourth quarter. Weakness emerged with the new year, a bad sign for economic growth. For instance, a key indicator of spending, retail sales, was flat in January and managed just a 0.1% gain in February.

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