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Keene Little : 4/3/2007 1:16:17 AM

End of day roadmaps, hourly (120-min for GOOG and CME):
DOW: Link
SPX: Link
NDX: Link
RUT: Link
GOOG: Link
CME: Link
gold: Link

Keene Little : 4/3/2007 1:13:28 AM

Tuesday's pivot tables: Link and Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/3/2007 12:29:25 AM

Continuous Unleaded ($GASO) vs. Continuous Oil ($WTIC) 0.25 box chart Link ... careful with those refiners near-term.

Jeff Bailey : 4/2/2007 11:04:48 PM

USD/JPY daily interval bar chart from tonight's Market Wrap Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/2/2007 11:02:40 PM

USD/JPY PnF chart at this Link

Can't chart an "X" to 118.396 based on Monday's high. Can't chart a 3-box reversal back lower to 117.219 either.

Higher lows and horizontal high gives observation of pressure building.

Jeff Bailey : 4/2/2007 10:43:50 PM

Solomon Islands: Tsunami Destroyed 900 Homes (update)

DJ (partial)- More than 900 homes were destroyed and some 5,000 people affected by the tsunami that struck a remote region of the Solomon Islands Monday, a government official said Tuesday.

Bodies floated out to sea and thousands of residents camped out overnight Tuesday on a hillside above a devastated town in the western Solomon Islands after a tsunami that struck without warning washed away coastal villages, killing at least 13 people.

The death toll was expected to climb once assessment teams made their way to the stricken region, said National Disaster Management Office spokesman Julian Makaa.

The first comprehensive damage assessment was "around 916 houses, and a very rough estimate of the people affected is around 5,000 people," Makaa told Australian Broadcasting Corp. radio.

Thousands of residents of Gizo in the Solomons' far west spent Monday night huddled on a hill behind the town after a magnitude 8 earthquake sent tsunami waves up to 5 meters high crashing through the town.

Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare declared a national state of emergency for the poverty-wracked archipelago.

Jeff Bailey : 4/2/2007 10:38:51 PM

USD/JPY 117.81 -0.025% ... finished Monday's session at 117.84.

Flat as a fillet of salmon

Jeff Bailey : 4/2/2007 10:30:57 PM

Nikkei-225 ($NIKK) Link ... currently up 134 points, or +0.79% at 17,162.

High/Low so far 17,176 / 17,096.

Jeff Bailey : 4/2/2007 10:26:33 PM

Japan's Ota: Weaker Tankan Reflecting Stock Falls, US Economic Concerns

DJ- Japanese Economy Minister Hiroko Ota said Tuesday her view that Japan is on a steady economic recovery path remains the same even after results of the Bank of Japan business sentiment survey were a tad weaker.

"It hasn't changed my view on the economy. Its basic (recovery) trend is intact," Ota told a regular press conference.

The minister added that a small fall in the tankan sentiment index probably reflected drops in global stock prices and growing uncertainty about the U.S. economy when the survey was conducted.

The BOJ's March "tankan" survey of corporate sentiment, released Monday, showed that the headline diffusion index for large manufacturers fell to 23 from 25 in the previous December survey. The diffusion indexes measure the percentage of companies saying that conditions are better minus those reporting that conditions are worse.

Jeff Bailey : 4/2/2007 10:24:27 PM

Japan's Ota: No Change In Economic View After BOJ's Tankan

OI Technical Staff : 4/2/2007 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 4/2/2007 5:51:39 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Note: I'm using different data source for today's NH/NL indications.

NYSE 5-day NH/NL ratio reversed down 3 boxes (88.00%).

Marc Eckelberry : 4/2/2007 6:46:58 PM

Close is being bought every day. I'm short term bullish on NQ. I bought 1779.50 (see 2:09:30 PM), stop at even now, target 1818. Be very disciplined with your NQ stops, BPNDX is dropping. In fact, partial profits should be taken at 1794.50 and stops moved up.

Jeff Bailey : 4/2/2007 5:24:01 PM

iRobot Corp. (IRBT) $13.12 +0.38% Link ... jumps to $14.10 extended (light volume) on news the company was awarded additional $14 million from U.S. Navy for bomb-disposal robots. Brings the total value of orders placed to date to $66 million.

Keene Little : 4/2/2007 5:11:51 PM

Tuesday's pivot tables: Link and Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/2/2007 5:03:19 PM

Ahead of tomorrow's Colorado State University 2007 Hurricane Forecast, May Natural Gas (ng07k) settled down $0.0590, or -0.76% at $7.671.

Jeff Bailey : 4/2/2007 5:01:38 PM

May Unleaded (rb07k) settled down $0.0152, or -0.74% at $2.0428.

Jeff Bailey : 4/2/2007 4:58:22 PM

May Crude Oil (cl07k) settled up $0.07, or +0.11% at $65.94.

Keene Little : 4/2/2007 4:56:21 PM

GOOG bounced off its longer term uptrend line from April 2004 (no surprise there). So any continuation up through 466 would be bullish. It takes a drop below 437 to put the bears firmly in control. Link

Marc Eckelberry : 4/2/2007 4:53:17 PM

NQ close update: Link

Keene Little : 4/2/2007 4:53:00 PM

CME hit the first Fib projection for the 2nd leg up from the 518.51 low on March 16th (where the 2nd leg = 62% of the 1st leg up) by tagging 546. If it continues higher then the downtrend line from January and the Fib projection for equality in the two legs at 557.64 could be the upside target. But with the first Fib target having been tagged, be watchful for a a decline from here. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/2/2007 4:53:45 PM

EIA: Retail Gasoline +9.7 cents to $2.707/Gallon In Week

East Coast +9.6c at $2.671.

Midwest +9.6c at $2.614

Gulf Coast +12.3c at $2.565

Rocky Mountains +8.1c at $2.619

West Coast +8.0c at $3.096

California +7.6c at $3.228

Prices in California have been pressured by extremely low refinery operations, due to heavy planned maintenance and unplanned outages.

EIA's gasoline price survey is collected through a telephone sampling of approximately 900 retail gasoline outlets.

Jeff Bailey : 4/2/2007 4:47:49 PM

US-KOREA TRADE COULD RISE TO $20B AFTER PACT

DJ- Landmark free trade agreement agreed to by the U.S. and South Korea could generate some $20 billion in new trade between the countries in coming years, especially benefiting U.S. farmers and Korean manufacturers.

Jeff Bailey : 4/2/2007 4:44:30 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Keene Little : 4/2/2007 4:43:26 PM

Gold continues to show a very similar pattern to the equities and therefore I see the same potential moves for it--either immediately lower, marginally higher before dropping again or a rally back to the top of its potential ascending wedge pattern (which would tag the 685 level that Marc is looking for). I'm leaning towards the bearish side of things here but not aggressively so. It won't take much higher to have me out of my short position (stop is at 672.80). Link

Keene Little : 4/2/2007 4:33:29 PM

Here are the 60-min charts for the 4 primary indices we follow, all pretty much in synch. Because of the choppy price patterns I no longer think a push above Friday's high is necessarily bullish as it could instead be the completion of an a-b-c correction off recent lows.

What it would say is that it would probably be a good time to be flat since it's entirely possible the whole pullback from the March highs is just a correction before the market heads higher again. But it's equally likely we're in the process of correcting the decline off those highs and the next decline will be fast and strong. We'll let price lead the way and right now no one's taking the lead.

DOW: Link
SPX: Link
NDX: Link
RUT: Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/2/2007 4:25:47 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List found at this Link

Jane Fox : 4/2/2007 4:23:45 PM

Economic Reports tomorrow include:

10:00a.m Feb Pending Home Sales. Previous: -4.1%.

Keene Little : 4/2/2007 4:16:07 PM

I see some Fib projections for the RUT's bounce to about 807 so that's the current upside potential for the bounce before it rolls back over. Any higher, especially with a break above 811 would be much more bullish. I'll continue to caution bulls in this environment where we're still seeing downside surprises. Link

Keene Little : 4/2/2007 4:04:16 PM

For the NDX pattern I see the possbibility for it to bounce up to its downtrend line from February, currently near 1790. Two equal legs up from last week's low would be at 1791.55 so I've moved the key level for the bulls up to 1792 as I think that would have to be broken in order to give us something more bullish here. This chopping around is just delaying us finding out where this market is headed next. Link

Keene Little : 4/2/2007 3:57:24 PM

I agree with Jeff--the strength of the broader market is surprising considering the weakness of the banks. If long I'd say trade this but don't hang around too long if the banks continue to show relative weakness. But if the DOW is able to rally above 12420 then I see upside potential to some Fib projections at 12485 which would be very close to at least a retest of the recent high. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/2/2007 3:56:00 PM

APEX Silver Mines (AMEX:SIL) $13.20 +2.24% ... starting to shine.

Jeff Bailey : 4/2/2007 3:55:12 PM

Me thinks a penny too tight on CDE stop. CDE $4.30 +4.62% ... testing last week's high and 50-day SMA.

Jeff Bailey : 4/2/2007 3:50:44 PM

As weak as the BIX.X and BKX.X were today, I must say I'm "surprised" how well the SPX holds its 19.1% retracement (1,414.61).

Keene Little : 4/2/2007 3:45:40 PM

Ideally another minor push higher here to give us a 5-wave move up from this afternoon's low and that could complete an a-b-c bounce from this morning's low. That would then set up the possibility for an immediate drop tomorrow morning. Something to think about if you're long the market.

Jeff Bailey : 4/2/2007 3:45:07 PM

E.ON Ag To Withdraw Endesa Bid, Buy EUR10B In Assets

EON $47.81 +5.86% ...

EN $54.63 +2.11% ...

ELE $53.68 +0.28% ...

DJ (partial) - Germany's E.ON AG (EON) said Monday it reached an agreement with rivals Acciona SA (ANA.MC) and Enel SpA (EN) to withdraw its EUR42.36 billion bid for Spanish utility Endesa SA (ELE), in exchange for the potential acquisition of a portfolio of assets across Europe.

If Acciona and Enel succeed with their own planned bid for a joint takeover for Endesa, which would value Endesa by at least EUR43.42 billion, E.ON will purchase about EUR10 billion worth of assets in Spain, Italy, France and Turkey currently in the hands of Endesa and Enel, E.ON said in a statement.

Both Acciona and Enel said Monday they will launch their own offer of at least EUR41 per Endesa share as soon as E.ON withdraws its own bid.

The agreement would put an end to the longest bidding battle in Europe, after extending for a year and a half amid legal disputes, accusations of political interference and clashes between the Spanish government and the European Commission.

The takeover race for Endesa first positioned E.ON against Spain's Gas Natural SPG SA (GAS.MC), and then pit E.ON against Enel and Acciona on a second stage after Gas Natural withdrew its own bid.

Keene Little : 4/2/2007 3:44:02 PM

I was waiting to see if SPX was going to break its downtrend line from last week but so far no dice. The bearish setup here, if it drops back down, is that the wave pattern is now set up for a 3rd of a 3rd wave down tomorrow. We've had several setups recently for this to happen and instead it has chopped sideways so it's only a potential for it to happen. If true, tomorrow will be hard down. Link

But if it rallies above 1429 then I would not be short the market--at least stand aside until we see what is setting up (other than a whipsaw head fake to the upside).

Jeff Bailey : 4/2/2007 3:25:07 PM

Kraft completes spin off of Altria

KFT $31.17 -1.54% ...

MO $68.22 +3.52% ...

Keene Little : 4/2/2007 3:17:19 PM

I'm having trouble finding a good server for QCharts, something that I haven't had to put up with in quite a while. So if you're struggling with the same, you're not alone. Even the Santa Clara servers seem slow right now.

Jane Fox : 4/2/2007 3:12:49 PM

TICKS going crazy.

Jeff Bailey : 4/2/2007 3:10:57 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/2/2007 3:03:00 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 4/2/2007 2:50:52 PM

After a huge move in any direction, I always like to see a retracement before a market takes off again. Oil has not made a retracement and I believe it would be much healthier if it did. Link

Jane Fox : 4/2/2007 2:47:50 PM

Gold has some very good support at 661.00. I suspect this market will test its February highs real soon. Link

Keene Little : 4/2/2007 2:46:56 PM

Is that the politically correct term to use when another country kidnaps your people?

Jeff Bailey : 4/2/2007 2:46:14 PM

YM 12,446 ... up 6 and probing WEEKLY Pivot.

Jeff Bailey : 4/2/2007 2:45:26 PM

Rift?

Jeff Bailey : 4/2/2007 2:45:17 PM

Iran Envoy: Aims to resolve UK Rift Via Diplomatic Channels

Keene Little : 4/2/2007 2:44:25 PM

Even the VIX has been in a tighter coil over the past 3 days and the Bollinger Band around it has tightened to the point where we're going to get a break out of it. Question of course is which way. It probably would work to play the direction of the break since I suspect it will move quite a bit in that direction. I get the feeling from this chart that it will break down and of course that would mean a bullish break out for equities so be careful if you're short. Link

Keene Little : 4/2/2007 2:34:47 PM

With today's high in gold at 672.40 (YG) at least I know where my stop is going to stay. I'm trying to let this flail around without me trying to catch every little squiggle. The bearish play will either work (and work very well) or I'll get stopped out for breakeven. I'm quite comfortable in my silver and gold shorts (my wife says they're very nice looking, but asked why they can't be real gold and silver) but any push back above today's high in gold and above 13.46 in silver will have me out.

Jeff Bailey : 4/2/2007 2:31:41 PM

773 contracts traded so far in SPG-SB ($4.40/$4.50). Was zero when profiled.

OI was 1,085 at Friday's close.

Keene Little : 4/2/2007 2:27:35 PM

From the March 23rd high, the downtrend lines for the DOW and SPX are now near 12386 and 1425.30. Price action remains choppy and hard to deipher at the moment so when all else fails I go to the trend lines and Fibs for intraday support/resistance.

Keene Little : 4/2/2007 2:24:21 PM

Getting in tighter, watch to see if the uptrend line from Thursday through this morning's low for NDX offers resistance now--about 1766.80 (pushing slightly above it as I type). Link

Keene Little : 4/2/2007 2:22:23 PM

NDX price action appears to be staying inside a new parallel down-channel for price action since the March high. Assuming it continues to drop further I see first support at either of the uptrend lines from July through the recent March lows, currently near 1746 and 1734. Gap close from March 19th is at 1741.78. But heading lower is by no means a given since each spike down is still being bought. Good effort holding this market up, that's for sure. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/2/2007 2:16:40 PM

iShares DJ Real Estate (NYSE:IYR) $85.69 +0.52% ... SPG ~6.6% weighting.

Jeff Bailey : 4/2/2007 2:16:31 PM

iShares Cohen & Steers Realty (AMEX:ICF) $103.60 +0.39% ... SPG ~8.84% weighting

Marc Eckelberry : 4/2/2007 2:09:30 PM

If NQ holds 1775/1776, it's a swing buy. If it does not hold, look out belwo. But for now, bulls are holding that key level against everything bears are throwing at them.

Keene Little : 4/2/2007 2:08:36 PM

The RUT broke below its uptrend line from last Thursday, retested it and is now dropping away. That was a sell signal and now we'll see what becomes of it Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/2/2007 1:58:25 PM

Fed's Poole: US Recession Chance Remains Conceivable

Inflation Is Still "Major Concern"

Inflation Levels Could Require More Rate Hikes

Jeff Bailey : 4/2/2007 1:56:20 PM

I should disclose that I currently hold a bearish position in shares of SPG.

Keene Little : 4/2/2007 1:56:01 PM

As one reader commented (thanks Christine), it looks like new-month money could be holding this up. But if this is the best that new money can do then that's another bearish sign.

Another hit in the new money arena is what the Fed has been up, or not up to as the case may be. Looking at the latest calculated M3 report (as of the end of last week) shows a steep drop in the rate of increase (light blue line): Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/2/2007 1:55:44 PM

VIX.X 14.89 +1.70% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/2/2007 1:54:43 PM

Swing trade put option alert ... Let's go long one (1) of the Simon Property Group SPG July $110 Puts (SPG-SB) at the offer of $4.50.

SPG $112.23 +0.88%

SPG-SB are $4.30 x $4.50.

Stop goes $116.30 in the underlying. Targeting $90.00.

Keene Little : 4/2/2007 1:52:28 PM

On Friday both Jeff and I noted that it looked like equities were coiling for a big move. Unfortunately that coiling continued today. It still looks like it's getting ready for a big move. I think it will be down but I'm waiting for the break to tell me for sure and then I'll add to my short position on bounces. Otherwise a break of last Friday's highs will have me back on the sidelines while I wait to see what's happening.

Marc Eckelberry : 4/2/2007 1:45:17 PM

Those who shorted oil as well because it's "overbought" are feeling the pain this morning. There is no such things as overbought in commodities. When they go down, they go down hard, not like this piddly stuff. You wait for a real sell-off THEN you short the bounce. But you never short this stuff unless you are a scalper.

Marc Eckelberry : 4/2/2007 1:42:41 PM

They are going to ride oil and gold until shorts bleed to death. That's the word from hedgies.

Keene Little : 4/2/2007 1:38:34 PM

YG came within a tick of tagging its downtrend line at 672.50. If you're thinking of testing the short side, this is a good place to try it--nice tight stop just above the trend line or above the last 673.90 high.

Jeff Bailey : 4/2/2007 1:36:35 PM

SIL $13.04 +1.00% and CDE $4.25 +3.40% both -0.95% last 20-days.

Jeff Bailey : 4/2/2007 1:30:42 PM

iShares Silver (AMEX:SLV) $132.91 -0.45% ... gets the trade at WEEKLY Pivot ($132.82).

Keene Little : 4/2/2007 1:30:38 PM

Silver's downtrend line from March 28th is near 13.444 which would be near gap close for it at 13.456.

Keene Little : 4/2/2007 1:28:39 PM

The trouble is we have different macro pictures. This time gold will sell off with everything else, as it did from the same February peak in equities. Since we've had so many bull markets as a result of credit inflation (easy money), not to mention the yen carry trade, a reversal of that will mean everything will be affected, including gold. Gold has been trading in synch with equities so until I see evidence that equities are ready to rally again (could happen) then I don't see a bullish outcome for gold from here.

But I'm certainly not going to let that belief hold me in a gold short--if it hits 672.80 I'm outahere.

Jane Fox : 4/2/2007 1:27:38 PM

OK I should have stayed the course a little longer with my YG long. Just like the QM long last week that I got out of too early as well.

Jane Fox : 4/2/2007 1:25:27 PM

TICKS +1000.

Jane Fox : 4/2/2007 1:24:16 PM

Both Gold and OIl are now testing their overnight highs.

Marc Eckelberry : 4/2/2007 1:23:07 PM

There are no reasons for anyone to dump all their gold. This is all just trader noise, means nothing for the long term investor who stays focused. Stick with the macro picture and quit staring at a screen all day.

Jane Fox : 4/2/2007 1:22:36 PM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Keeping prices stable requires that the Federal Reserve adopt and communicate a credible policy for fighting inflation, St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President William Poole said Monday. In a speech to the National Association for Business Economics in New York, Poole repeated that he'd be happy to endorse a formal goal by the Fed of keeping core inflation centered on the range between 1% and 2%. The most important element in the Fed's inflation-fighting kit is to anchor inflation expectations. "If the committee communicates its objectives and strategy in a transparent and credible fashion, the bond market and other forward-looking financial markets will amplify the committee's near-term decisions and thereby do a good deal of its work for it," he said.

Jeff Bailey : 4/2/2007 1:19:41 PM

01:05 Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 4/2/2007 1:18:16 PM

Well, at least my short entry on YG at 672.80 is now above the downtrend line from March 28th so my stop at break even means they can't hurt me. Ideally the stop should be above the last high at 673.90 but I'm not willing to lose any money on this play.

Keene Little : 4/2/2007 1:15:47 PM

Marc, you made a typo--it should have read 585 (wink).

Marc Eckelberry : 4/2/2007 1:14:16 PM

YG June will be at 685 this week.

Keene Little : 4/2/2007 1:11:04 PM

At this point I'm not sure who's getting shaken out of gold--today's dip shook out short term bulls and now the rally is going to shake out short term bears. Seems most of the market is just interested in whipping around today and most are flat on the day. Although equities are looking more on the weak side than anything.

Jane Fox : 4/2/2007 1:10:21 PM

YG's overnight highs are 670.40 and I suspect this market will find resistance there. It did overnight so it probably will again, at least for a while.

Jeff Bailey : 4/2/2007 1:07:59 PM

01:05 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/2/2007 1:00:11 PM

Accredited Home Lenders (LEND) $8.40 -9.38% ... set to test WEEKLY S1 ($8.26)

Jane Fox : 4/2/2007 12:59:47 PM

ER is back into bear country but the internals are not bearish so probably just as well to stay on the sidelines for now.

Jane Fox : 4/2/2007 12:57:55 PM

That was fun.

Jane Fox : 4/2/2007 12:58:17 PM

I am getting out of my YG position for no other reason than I know this market can move as quickly against you as well as for you.

Jane Fox : 4/2/2007 12:55:21 PM

Nice move in Gold.

Keene Little : 4/2/2007 12:55:15 PM

That didn't take long--YG has now closed its gap and gap and tagged 62%. YI has bounced above its broken uptrend line. If both don't turn right back down then something more bullish is happening and the short side will not be the correct side.

Jane Fox : 4/2/2007 12:55:05 PM

My goodness gracious YG is now at 669.40.

Marc Eckelberry : 4/2/2007 12:53:30 PM

Shorting gold now is like shorting techs in early November. It sure takes a lot of fighting against a lot of money..Keene and I disagree on this, as you can tell.

Jeff Bailey : 4/2/2007 12:49:53 PM

yg07m CBOT Update ... CBOT telling me that they broke lower trades from 09/28/07.

Jeff Bailey : 4/2/2007 12:45:22 PM

iShares Silver (SLV) $131.60 -1.43% Link ... session low has been $129.21.

Keene Little : 4/2/2007 12:42:26 PM

Just noticed too that gap closure for gold (YG) would be tagging its 62% retracement. Also a good place to try shorting it.

Jeff Bailey : 4/2/2007 12:41:24 PM

PetroChina (PTR) $118.84 +1.49% Link ...

Keene Little : 4/2/2007 12:41:01 PM

For example, this morning silver bounced back off its uptrend line from March 5th and looks like it's headed up to a broken uptrend line from March 14th, currently near 13.27 (it could tag its 62% retracement level at 13.30) so if you're interested in shorting silver, this line should be good resistance. Reaching up towards it as I type. Use a tight stop just above it. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/2/2007 12:40:12 PM

US Oil Fund (AMEX:USO) $53.43 +0.14% Link ... $0.50-box to match futures.

Jane Fox : 4/2/2007 12:39:27 PM

Here is how the markets are trading in relation to their PDRs. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/2/2007 12:38:51 PM

IRAN RADIO SAYS POSITIVE CHANGES IN U.K. STANCE

DJ- Iran's state-run radio Monday cited what it called 'positive changes' in the U.K.'s negotiating stance, and said because of those, television stations would not broadcast any additional videos of the captured U.K. sailors' confessions.

Marc Eckelberry : 4/2/2007 12:38:07 PM

Traders who are new to commodities should understand that they trade very differently than stocks and can remain overbought (or oversold) for much longer. In fact, many commodity traders only buy at +60 RSI or sell at -30 RSI. It is the nature of the beast.

Keene Little : 4/2/2007 12:37:05 PM

Gold and silver are getting a decent bounce off this morning's lows. Anything more than a 62% retracement of the drop from Friday's high (near 669.20 for gold and 13.30 for silver) would have me ready to cover my short positions since the bearish pattern says they shouldn't even get close to those levels. In the meantime I'll let the bounce play out and may even look to add to my position if it looks ready to roll over.

Jeff Bailey : 4/2/2007 12:37:04 PM

Coeur D' Alene Mines (CDE) $4.25 +3.40% ... looks expensive. WEEKLY R1 here at $4.27.

Jane Fox : 4/2/2007 12:36:09 PM

Gold and the US $ were in a stare off earlier and it looks like the $ blinked first and Gold has taken off. YG 668.10!

Jeff Bailey : 4/2/2007 12:35:31 PM

APEX Silver (AMEX:SIL) $12.95 +0.30% ... looks cheap.

Jane Fox : 4/2/2007 12:35:18 PM

ER has been stuck in a +3 for most of the day. Notice once again how well the Yearly open at 805.50 is acting as support again today. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/2/2007 12:34:56 PM

iShares Silver (AMEX:SLV) $131.36 -1.61% ... lurches to WEEKLY S1.

Jane Fox : 4/2/2007 12:31:05 PM

YG 667.00.

Jeff Bailey : 4/2/2007 12:31:02 PM

New Century Seeks Chapter 11 Protection ... AP Story Link

Marc Eckelberry : 4/2/2007 12:29:42 PM

In for a second. Yen is bruising things a little, but NDX holds 20 DMA. In fact, gold as well holds 20 DMA and is in a very solid accumulation phase for the next leg up (661 to 670 has been consistently bought). I prefer to simply buy dips and keep on adding to an already hugely profitable position, probably the best long for 2007 going forward. I still see no reason to short this, the chart is clear, we are in an uptrend, short term, medium term and long term. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/2/2007 12:29:03 PM

APPLE, EMI DROP DIGITAL COPYRIGHT PROTECTION

DJ- Apple and EMI unveil a plan to sell digital music in unprotected formats in a bid to buoy sales of digital music. This marks a major strategy shift both for Apple and for EMI.

AAPL $93.69 +0.83% Link ...

Jane Fox : 4/2/2007 12:26:59 PM

Gold is now breaking back into its PDR at 666.60 and I will raise my stop to B/E.

Keene Little : 4/2/2007 12:21:18 PM

While GOOG might find support at its longer term uptrend line it looks like CME might find resistance at its line, which is where price is currently stalled after its gap up today. I had the key level for the bears at 518, which would a break below the low on March 16th, but a break below last week's low near 527 would be a heads up that something more bearish could be starting. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/2/2007 12:20:28 PM

NOKIA WARNS OF SPENDING SLOWDOWN

DJ- Telecommunications giant Nokia warns that it and Nokia Siemens Networks has seen a slowdown in spending in some regions over the past couple of months, and updates its outlook for 2007.

NOK $22.68 -1.04% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/2/2007 12:18:58 PM

FEBRUARY CHIP SALES CLIMB 4.2%

DJ- Worldwide sales of semiconductors for February increase year-over-year to $20.09 billion, but fall 6.5% from January. Semiconductor Industry Association notes seasonal trends played a role in the sequential drop.

Jeff Bailey : 4/2/2007 12:18:02 PM

CIT TO BUY CITIGROUP TECH UNIT

DJ- Citigroup agrees to sell its U.S. Business Technology Finance unit, which has about $2 billion in assets. Terms not disclosed for the deal, which is set to close in 2Q.

C $50.84 -0.97% Link ...

CIT $53.49 +1.07% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/2/2007 12:15:57 PM

COLLINS & AIKMAN TO SELL PLASTICS UNIT

DJ- Auto parts supplier agrees to sell 'significant portion' of its U.S., Canada and Mexico plastics unit to Cadence Innovation, as it looks to sell or liquidate remaining assets in Chapter 11. Deal covers facilities employing 3,500 workers.

CKCRQ $0.05 (unch) Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/2/2007 12:11:58 PM

STATES CAN SUE EPA OVER AUTO EMISSIONS

DJ- Supreme Court says states and environmental groups can sue the EPA over its refusal to regulate auto emissions. In a separate opinion, the justices vacate a lower court ruling favorable to Duke Energy in a pollution permit dispute.

DUK $20.78 +2.41% Link ...

Jane Fox : 4/2/2007 12:11:04 PM

I am having issues with my internet connection. One minute I have a connection and the next it it gone. I have a technician coming out this afternoon to replace the modem AGAIN!

Jeff Bailey : 4/2/2007 12:08:44 PM

BARCLAYS GETS DISCOUNT ON EQUIFIRST

DJ- Barclays pays $76 million for subprime unit of Regions Financial, a two-thirds discount to price agreed on in mid-January, suggesting another sign of industry's woeful state.

BCS $57.39 +0.79% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/2/2007 12:05:54 PM

XEROX TO BUY GLOBAL IMAGING FOR $1.46B

DJ- Xerox agrees to pay $29 a share in cash for Global Imaging Systems, a 49% premium to its closing price on Friday. Xerox expects deal, the largest of three acquisitions made the last year, to contribute to 2007 earnings.XRX $16.99 +0.59% Link ...

GISX $28.62 +46.76% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/2/2007 12:03:25 PM

KKR AGREES TO BUY FIRST DATA FOR $25.6B

DJ- KKR agrees to purchase credit-card and payments processor First Data for $25.6 billion, the latest in a string of leveraged buyouts of established U.S. corporations. KKR will pay $34 a share, a 26% premium over Friday's close.

FDC $32.49 +20.78% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/2/2007 12:01:46 PM

TRIBUNE TO GO PRIVATE IN $8.2B DEAL WITH ZELL

DJ- Tribune agrees to go private for $34 a share, a 5.9% premium to Friday's closing price. Investor Sam Zell is supporting the transaction with an investment of $315 million. In addition, Tribune plans to sell the Chicago Cubs baseball team and its 25% interest in Comcast SportsNet Chicago following the completion of the 2007 season.

TRB $32.96 +2.64% Link ...

Keene Little : 4/2/2007 12:00:36 PM

It's decision time for GOOG. It has dropped back down to its long term uptrend line from August 2004. Price has been waffling around this line for the past month but another break below it could be more bearish than the first break. Otherwise if support holds here then it could launch another rally leg. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/2/2007 11:49:05 AM

iShares Silver (AMEX:SLV) $130.63 -2.16% ... found support at WEEKLY S2 ($129.37). WEEKLY S1 just ahead at $131.41.

Tab Gilles : 4/2/2007 11:49:03 AM

$WTIC$65.44 T. Boone Pickens called for $70 before $50 recently. We may go higher, perhaps $75 and a double top? Here's a weekly chart annotated with some upside targets. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/2/2007 11:48:01 AM

Coeur D' Alene Mines (CDE) $4.26 +3.64% ...

Keene Little : 4/2/2007 11:40:25 AM

This morning's bounce in the RUT stopped at its downtrend line from March 26th and it's currently near 802. But I still see the possibility for a minor hgh above last Friday's 804.29 high so I'm leaving the key level for the bulls as the March 26th high near 811. A break below 791 could confirm the bearish wave count although a break of its uptrend line from last Thursday, currently near 798.50 (cash), would be a heads up that a breakdown is starting. Link

Keene Little : 4/2/2007 11:30:53 AM

The last high for NDX was near 1783 and is a key level for the bulls but a break of the downtrend line from February, currently near 1790, would be a better break for the bulls. Link

Jane Fox : 4/2/2007 11:27:03 AM

At least I am getting back some of the trading capital I lost on my two ER trades this morning.

Keene Little : 4/2/2007 11:26:19 AM

Same with SPX--tightened up the key levels to the recent high and low. Link

Jane Fox : 4/2/2007 11:26:05 AM

IF YG breaks back into its PDR then I will raise my stop - currently at 666.20.

Jane Fox : 4/2/2007 11:22:17 AM

Dateline WSJ - New Century Financial filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in the largest collapse of a subprime mortgage lender in the housing downturn.

Keene Little : 4/2/2007 11:18:03 AM

I've tightened up the key levels on the DOW chart to try to limit exposure for your short or long positions--basically a break of the recent high or low. Link

Keene Little : 4/2/2007 11:13:14 AM

NDX (and NQ) did a perfect 50% retracement of this morning's drop and now looks ready to roll back over. Shorting it here with a tight stop could be a nice play. Just lower your stop as soon as it drops and keep it a couple of ticks above this bounce.

Jane Fox : 4/2/2007 11:11:53 AM

VLO looks like it is consolidating at highs and may be setting up for another move higher. A much more healthy scenario would be for it to retrace to about the 62.00 level and then take off again but this sideways move is quite bullish as well. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/2/2007 11:10:09 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Note: Data service provider for NH/NL measures not updating.

Jane Fox : 4/2/2007 11:09:05 AM

I got into my YG long at 664.20.

Keene Little : 4/2/2007 11:08:48 AM

MER got a nice push back up as well. But so far it has retraced 62% of this morning's drop (at 82.21) and has an a-b-c bounce with two equal legs up (at 82.20). The high for the bounce here is at 82.25.

Jane Fox : 4/2/2007 11:07:06 AM

This trade is only a daytrade and has nothing to do with my GLD long.

Jane Fox : 4/2/2007 11:06:19 AM

I am taking a YG (Gold's emini) long for a day trade. This contract is $3.32/TICK and my stop is at 661.00 so I am risking about $100.00/contract.

Keene Little : 4/2/2007 11:04:55 AM

This is clearly a strong push back up. But techs and small caps are not fully engaged here and that should keep the bulls cautious here.

Jeff Bailey : 4/2/2007 11:02:07 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/2/2007 10:59:26 AM

USD/JPY 117.69 -0.10% ...

Keene Little : 4/2/2007 10:57:49 AM

Equity bulls are feeling their alfalfa here. So far it's just a 3-wave corrective bounce and based on that should be a good short, stop above this morning's high.

Keene Little : 4/2/2007 10:55:08 AM

The reason I like my silver short this morning is because it dropped below the lows of the recent consolidation range (making me nervous that it was going to resolve to the upside). The 13.17 level should now be resistance and any rally back above there would make me nervous. Otherwise this is set up for a hard fall (from an EW perspective). Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/2/2007 10:51:07 AM

DJ- US Revised January Distillate Use +2.5% On Yr; Most Since '04

Jane Fox : 4/2/2007 10:50:52 AM

US $ is falling and oil is holding above its overnight lows. It does not make sense that Gold is falling as well. Something has got to give.

Keene Little : 4/2/2007 10:49:22 AM

The drop in gold today took it down to the uptrend line from March 14th and the 38% retracement of the decline from the February high, both near 663. A break below that level, confirmed with a break below 661, would be bearish. A rally from here back above its last high at 674 would be bullish and since I'm short gold that's where I've lowered my stop to. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/2/2007 10:39:08 AM

U.S. March ISM 50.9 vs. Feb 52.3. Consensus was 52.0.

Prices paid 65.5 vs. Feb 59.0

Employment 48.7 vs. Feb 51.1

New Orders 51.6 vs. Feb 54.9

Production 53.0 vs. Feb 54.1

Inventories 47.5 vs. Feb 44.6

Jeff Bailey : 4/2/2007 10:34:27 AM

Holders Of Simon Property Group Series I Preferred Stock May Elect To Convert ... Company Press Release Link ...

SPG $112.18 +0.83% ...

Jane Fox : 4/2/2007 10:30:34 AM

Dang it out of my short.

Keene Little : 4/2/2007 10:27:30 AM

The little consolidation at the lows should be followed by another leg down.

Keene Little : 4/2/2007 10:22:06 AM

Banks now down -1.6%. They're not that far from the March 5th low and it looks like they'll be the first to test that low. The negative performance of the banks relative to the broader market is a bearish sign and tells us the subprime problem is not going to be contained to just that small area.

Jane Fox : 4/2/2007 10:18:52 AM

My holy grail to shorting is a VIX to new daily highs and AD volume to new daily lows.

Jane Fox : 4/2/2007 10:17:54 AM

I am short ER now.

Jane Fox : 4/2/2007 10:15:53 AM

If ER loses 805.50 it is time to start thinking short.

Jeff Bailey : 4/2/2007 10:15:33 AM

Those look like valid trades to $119.23 for PetroChina (PTR) $118.31 +1.04% ...

Keene Little : 4/2/2007 10:15:31 AM

MER found temporary support at gap close but has now dropped to new lows. It's continuing to make new lows as I type.

Jane Fox : 4/2/2007 10:13:01 AM

VIX to new daily highs. You never want to be caught long with a bearish VIX - like I was this morning.

Keene Little : 4/2/2007 10:10:08 AM

I think the big reason for the negative reaction to the ISM number is because it supports the contention that last week's high Chicago PMI number was an error. It will very likely be revised downward next month.

Jane Fox : 4/2/2007 10:09:55 AM

ER once again tags yearly open at 805.50 and finds support.

Jeff Bailey : 4/2/2007 10:09:20 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List found at this Link

Jane Fox : 4/2/2007 10:07:52 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The manufacturing sector expanded slowly in March, the Institute for Supply Management reported Monday. The ISM index fell to 50.9% from 52.3% in February. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch expected a slight slowing to 51.8%. Readings in the diffusion index indicate a major of firms surveyed said business was getting better. For seven months, the ISM index had been in a relatively narrow band between 49.3% and 52.7%, indicating little growth in the manufacturing sector. The new orders index dropped to 51.6% from 54.9%. The production index fell to 53% from 54.1%. The prices paid index rose to 65.5% from 59.0%. The inventories index rose to 47.5% from 44.6%.

Keene Little : 4/2/2007 10:02:41 AM

Watch for potential support, at least for a bounce, at the overnight lows in futures (YM 12404, ES 1427.25, NQ 1786.25, ER 805.40).

Jeff Bailey : 4/2/2007 10:01:58 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Keene Little : 4/2/2007 10:01:04 AM

I'm guessing the ISM number wasn't so good.

Jane Fox : 4/2/2007 9:59:26 AM

I am out of my long.

Jeff Bailey : 4/2/2007 9:55:15 AM

Bullish swing trade stopped alert for shares of Coeur D' Alene Mines (CDE) at $4.07

$4.08 x $4.09.

Keene Little : 4/2/2007 9:52:33 AM

After popping higher at the open Mother (MER) is now about to close this morning's gap. If it can bounce from there then shorts be careful but if it continues to drop then I suspect the broader market will also.

Jeff Bailey : 4/2/2007 9:52:31 AM

Bullish swing trade raise stop alert for the 1/4 position in shares of Coeur D' Alene Mines (CDE) $4.11 (unch) ... to $4.07.

Keene Little : 4/2/2007 9:49:19 AM

Banks (BIX) and brokers (XBD) are in the red this morning and that's not helpful for bulls.

Jane Fox : 4/2/2007 9:46:19 AM

AD volume climbing "I think I can, I think I can."

Jane Fox : 4/2/2007 9:45:07 AM

Bulls sigh as the VIX retreats.

Jane Fox : 4/2/2007 9:44:26 AM

We now have the AD volume to new daily highs and so is the VIX and the markets are totally confused and are going nowhere.

Jane Fox : 4/2/2007 9:42:15 AM

The bulls will not gain much as long as the VIX is not on their side.

Jane Fox : 4/2/2007 9:41:28 AM

The only thing that is bothering me is the VIX hanging around daily highs.

Jane Fox : 4/2/2007 9:40:47 AM

Oh my goodness AD line is now a healthy +750 and I am long ER.

Jane Fox : 4/2/2007 9:39:31 AM

ES's daily and weekly open is 1432.75 so above this number it is +9 and below it is +2, pretty clear here as well.

Keene Little : 4/2/2007 9:38:52 AM

The downtrend lines for SPX and DOW are near 1426.40 and 12400 (closer for the DOW) so watch those levels for resistance, or not. Many times the initial direction out of the gate is the head fake move. I think I'll now refer to it as the "Cramer" move.

Jane Fox : 4/2/2007 9:37:49 AM

ER's daily and weekly open is 808.10 so above this number ER is +10. Below the yearly open at 808.50 the number is +2. Those numbers are pretty clear today.

Jane Fox : 4/2/2007 9:31:59 AM

No big surprise AD line an innocuous -7.00 and the VIX opens midrange to its PDR.

Jane Fox : 4/2/2007 9:24:14 AM

The US $ is now breaking to new daily lows and gives my long GLD position even more hope. Oil is also stabilizing at around $66.00/bl.

Jane Fox : 4/2/2007 9:16:04 AM

I certainly do not like that gold is selling off but its not anywhere near my "get out" point. A close under the 50EMA would have my attention but so far this is just noise. I do not see a sharp rally in the $ to tell me why Gold is selling but my $ charts are on a 20 minute delay and I may see it yet. Oil seems to holding up and that gives me hope my long Gold position will still be OK but if not I will bail and wait for another setup. Link

Keene Little : 4/2/2007 9:10:19 AM

Equity futures have recovered off a steep drop since the European markets have been open but it's been a choppy climb back up so it has a bearish look to it. Gold and silver have taken a dump so anyone short the metals is looking good right now. Stops should certainly be dropped to breakeven at this point and we'll see what develops from here.Silver just dropped through its shelf of support at 13.17 so that's a good sign for the bears. Gold needs to drop below 660 to do the same otherwise it's still in its consolidation range of the past 2 weeks.

Jane Fox : 4/2/2007 9:07:25 AM

It was a very innocuous overnight session. The markets have mostly recovered from the new overnight low at 3:10 but there is nothing giving us any idea as to direction intraday. The markets will probably open very close to where they closed on Friday. Link

Jane Fox : 4/2/2007 8:58:18 AM

Dateline WSJ - Chicago investor Sam Zell won the bidding for Tribune Co., the company announced this morning, following a six-month old auction.

Exact terms were unveiled this morning. They include a low break-up fee of $25 million, which would encourage the partnership of Eli Broad and Ron Burkle to pursue a still higher offer, if they choose. The two Los Angeles investors had been trying to unseat Mr. Zell at the last moment, but could not do so in a way that satisfied Tribune's board.

The Zell deal also includes plans to sell the Chicago Cubs baseball team. More details are expected shortly.

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