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Keene Little : 4/4/2007 11:54:25 PM

Thursday's pivot tables: Link and Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2007 10:03:53 PM

ka-boom! Holly Corp. (HOC) $61.20 +3.74% ... a "top holding" in the PowerShares Dorsey/Wright Technical Leaders (PDP) $25.26 +0.39% ...

Not to mention the OptionInvestor.com Newsletter play list!

OI Technical Staff : 4/4/2007 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

Disclaimer: Stocks discussed in the Market Monitor are for educational purposes only and any analysis is not meant to imply a recommendation for or against that stock. The analysts in this forum as on any other website are prohibited by the SEC from giving any specific advice to ANY individual trader. All information posted is for ALL readers and is not meant to be directed to any individual. Our analysts cannot answer any email questions regarding any specific stock. Please do not ask and please do not take offense if requests are denied.

Results posted in the Market Monitor are hypothetical and OIN does not claim that any reader achieved these exact results. Due to the lag time between research, writing, posting, uploading, reading and execution there will be differences between the actual signal given and the fill achieved by the reader. Fills may be better or worse but in most cases they will be different. The writers will make every effort to give advance notice of intended signals and indicate potential price targets. Your individual results may vary depending on your activity level and aggressiveness. This forum is intended as an education service only. Trading involves risk and should not be attempted by anyone not ready to accept this risk. By acting on any signal in this forum you agree and personally accept this risk.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2007 9:28:39 PM

XOM's PnF chart via Dorsey/Wright at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2007 9:22:56 PM

Exxon/Mobil (XOM) $77.11 +0.40% ... today's trade at $77.00 get the stock back on a "buy signal."

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2007 9:05:39 PM

Dorsey/Wright's very narrow Dow Industrials Bullish % (BPDJIA) reverses back up to "bull confirmed" at 90.00%.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2007 8:54:05 PM

1,000,000 shares blocked at $80.57 for the iShares Russell 2000 (AMEX:IWM) in this evening's extended session.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2007 6:32:45 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2007 5:51:59 PM

May Unleaded (rb07k) settled up $0.087, or +4.35% at $2.1054.

3-session losing streak ends.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2007 5:46:51 PM

UK Ambassador Meets With Crew Held By Iran

Ambassador reports crew in good health.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2007 5:41:44 PM

May Crude Oil (cl07k) settled down $0.26, or -0.40% at $64.38.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2007 5:37:19 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2007 5:36:37 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2007 5:36:19 PM

Dorsey/Wright's chart of HSY shows bullish support the same, but just a double-top buy signal at $54. $58 would be a spread triple top buy signal.

HSY pays a common share dividend of $1.08/year.

StockCharts.com adjusts historical prices base on dividends.

Dorsey/Wright does not.

Somebody paid as much as $67.37 a share for HSY back in May'05.

Somebody paid as much as $57.65 a share in June'06.

HSY never traded as low as $48.00 in 2006.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2007 5:08:21 PM

Hershey, Co (HSY) $55.68 -0.10% Link ... That'll give a bull a "sweet tooth"

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2007 5:07:07 PM

Hershey's Raises Candy Bar Prices As Cocoa Futures Climb

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2007 5:03:22 PM

Micron Says Memory Prices Have Stabilized ... Reuters Story Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2007 5:02:18 PM

Micron Tech (MU) ... Earnings Press Release Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2007 5:02:09 PM

Micron Tech (MU) $12.07 -1.30% ... jumps to $12.54 extended. WEEKLY R2 right there at 12.59.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2007 4:51:53 PM

Anyone wonder what type of bid the DOE received?

Good guess might be $68.00 and that 03/27/07 late-afternoon/early evening high action.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2007 4:41:51 PM

Yep ... a "finger tapper" at this point.

If I didn't like it, I wouldn't have PROFILED it.

If I liked SPG as a long, I'd have calls in the MM Profiles.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2007 4:38:02 PM

VIX.X closed 14.53 on Monday. 13.24 is today's close.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2007 4:37:01 PM

SPG analysis: Institutional computers don't seem overly bearish/cautious the stock. Stock's PRICE action rose after Monday's PUT action.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2007 4:35:04 PM

SPG-SB didn't trade a contract today (all exchanges). I was watching.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2007 4:35:00 PM

SPG Options Montage screen capture I took earlier this afternoon Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2007 4:34:49 PM

Actually, there were two things that caught my eye today.

Remember just after my PUT option profile on SPG @ $112.60 I noted a the volume increase in option activity for the SPG-SB at 04/02/07 03:31:47?

Today's low in SPG was $112.25.

Yesterday sellers defended where they had to. Today, buyers may have done the same.

Keene Little : 4/4/2007 4:13:51 PM

As I'll show in tonight's Wrap, it's possible we're doing a small ascending wedge for the 5th wave in the move up from last Friday's low. It calls for a continuation of the choppy price action we've seen the past 2 days but working its way a little higher. A break down from that kind of pattern would be relatively quick and a good sell signal (for at least a pullback). The DOW breaking below 12500 could be the signal but for now it's too early to be thinking short.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2007 4:02:19 PM

(per 03:40:49) ... I thought the DOE would simply begin buying back portions in open market transactions.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2007 3:57:28 PM

Well, the ONLY thing that really catches my eye today is the "tug of war" in financials.

XBD.X looks like it want to roll higher, but can't get the bid above WEEKLY R1.

BIX.X sitting here/lower, can't get the break above MONTHLY Pivot.

SPX 1,438.72 ... It sees the light, but not the "light of day" above 1,440.

Not yet.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2007 3:47:33 PM

American Taliban Lindh's Attorney Asks Bush To Commuter Sentence

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2007 3:41:50 PM

Now that's news to me.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2007 3:40:49 PM

US DOE Turns Down Initial SPR Bids

DJ- The U.S. Energy Dept. Thursday deemed "unacceptable" an initial bid it received in response to a solicitation to purchase up to 4 million barrels for the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

The department found the bid to be too high and "not a reasonable value for taxpayers."

DOE said it will issue another solicitation for bids later in April. The solicitations are planned to replace 11 million barrels of oil sold in the fall of 2005 after Hurricane Katrina disrupted refinery supplies.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2007 3:38:48 PM

DJ- UK Embassy In Tehran Awaits Arrival Of Released Crew Members

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2007 3:35:09 PM

Well ... most wouldn't. ;)

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2007 3:34:36 PM

If trying the long side based on NYSE.

Might want to consider yesterday's reversal up in the NYSE Bullish %.

Then, take a 0% retracement from the 03/05/07 low close, then "fit" a 38.2% at yesterday's close. With overhead supply limited, nobody wants to be short above 9,454.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2007 3:16:55 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 4/4/2007 3:07:39 PM

The one chart that has me a little edgy about expectations for an upside resolution to this is the NYSE chart. Because it's pressed up against some Fib projections I have for the current rally, and up against the top of its parallel channel from 2004, this could surprise us with a downside move starting at any time. Stay on your toes if trying the long side here.

Keene Little : 4/4/2007 3:04:51 PM

Not much more to add today--the market has continued to consolidate as I thought it would. We could still get a pullback before setting up the next rally leg. Perhaps tomorrow will be a bullish ending to a bullish week (typical for a holiday week).

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2007 3:02:29 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2007 2:56:25 PM

Or the "crack spread," which is really relative strength between unleaded and oil with ...

NYMEX:rb07k /NYMEX:cl07k

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2007 2:55:20 PM

You could compare GLD against SLV with


Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2007 2:53:53 PM

QCharts Users ... Did you know that you can create a bar chart RS by typing in the symbol of the security you are interested in, follow by a "space", then a "forward slash" and then the benchmark index?

Example: SPG /SPY

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2007 2:44:37 PM

SPG $112.28 with SPY $143.71

(relative strength) RS = (112.28 / 143.71) * 100 = 78.13.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2007 2:32:37 PM

DJ Survey US Jobless Claims Seen +7,000 March 31 Week

Jane Fox : 4/4/2007 2:30:51 PM

Needless to say when the SPX monthly jtHMA turns red it will have my attention.

Jane Fox : 4/4/2007 2:29:53 PM

I have shown this chart before but I think it warrants looking at again. This is the jtHMA on a monthly SPX chart. Since 1995 it has been a very good indicator of bullish and bearish. Link

Jane Fox : 4/4/2007 2:26:09 PM

Gold's weekly jtHMA went green on November 3rd at 602.60. Now that would have been a sweet entry.

Jane Fox : 4/4/2007 2:22:44 PM

The $RUT weekly jtHMA has gone green. Link

Jane Fox : 4/4/2007 2:21:12 PM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The damage to the financial system from the woes in the market for riskier types of mortgages is largely contained but bears close scrutiny, said Richard Fisher, the president of the Dallas Fed bank, on Wednesday.

It is difficult for the Fed to gauge the true health of the housing sector given the recent damage in the subprime-mortgage market, Fisher commented in a speech to a mortgage-banking group in Austin, Texas.

The subprime market has fallen into crisis as several lenders specializing in mortgages to buyers with lower credit scores have gone bust.

"While the subprime damage is largely contained, I do not mean that the market will or should refrain from punishing those who neglected time-proven rules of prudence. Nor am I suggesting that the neglect of prudent practices has not bled into other types of credit -- such as the Alt-A market," Fisher said

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2007 2:17:07 PM

Fed's Fisher: Productivity Is Currently Key Economic Indicator

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2007 2:12:25 PM

June Gold (gc07m) PnF chart, updated with today's action (blue ?) at this Link ... Did not trade $660.00 so far, has it traded a 3-box reversal to $676?

Answer: Yes. Should this contract NOT trade $660.00 today, we would chart X's to $680 at least.

Tab Gilles : 4/4/2007 2:00:27 PM

Oil Service Sector OIH, NE and several stocks in this sector appear to be rolling over. Link Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2007 1:46:26 PM

DJ- Major Company Earnings table Link

Keene Little : 4/4/2007 1:41:58 PM

Gold looks like it's either in the early stages of rolling over or it's consolidating for another run to at least test this morning's spike high. I have one other upside Fib (other than the 681.20 I showed earlier) at 682.57 so if that gets tagged and there are bearish divergences associated with it, I'd try a short on that move. In the meantime I'm short with a stop at a new high in order to keep my risk small.

Jane Fox : 4/4/2007 1:17:32 PM

Gold is making a very bullish move today. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2007 1:16:07 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2007 1:04:40 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2007 1:00:48 PM

Here at Shady Acres Rest Home, we use a "sleep number" rating. My 4 padded walls are currently set at 50, meaning my caretakers think I'm moderate risk for injury.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2007 12:49:16 PM

Goldman Sachs (GS) $208.97 -0.37% ... 60-minute interval chart with MONTHLY pivot retracement (pink) and WEEKLY Pivot retracement (blue) at this Link

Keene Little : 4/4/2007 12:45:28 PM

I like that Jeff--we'll have to come up with a code system for suggesting plays--from tap-your-finger to pound-the-table. I'm sure we could have a head-nod or head-shake in there as well. Then of course the toe-tap or drum-finger means hold and wait for something.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2007 12:45:08 PM

Goldman Sachs (GS) $208.97 -0.37% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2007 12:44:33 PM

XBD.X 239.48 +0.23% ... going to take another look at this morning's high and WEEKLY R1 (240.04).

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2007 12:40:38 PM

I currently rate SPG as a "tap your finger's short/put" ... not a "pound your fist."

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2007 12:39:35 PM

Simon Property Group (SPG) $113.29 -1.23% ... Now a daily interval chart with mentioned conventional LONG-TERM retracement at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2007 12:22:18 PM

Hmmm ... just noticing what could be viewed as a "head/shoulder top" pattern for SPG. However, yesterday's action juuuuuust enough to have the "right shoulder" growing into the ear.

Me thinks yesterday's highs better be "the highs" near-term, or technical shorts get squeezed above there.

Keene Little : 4/4/2007 12:22:12 PM

There have been no significant changes to the 60-min charts I posted earlier but with the RUT looking more bearish than the others (only because it's slightly negative for the day), I thought I'd update its chart. A small parallel up-channel for price action since last week's low shows a pullback or sideways consolidation would stay potentially bullish and lead to another push higher in a small 5th wave for the leg up from last week. I like the 821-823 area for a short play setup. Patience until then. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2007 12:19:50 PM

Simon Property Group (SPG) $113.45 -1.09% ... 60-minute interval chart with my MONTHLY Pivot retracement (pink) and QCharts' WEEKLY Pivot Levels Link

Jane Fox : 4/4/2007 12:19:19 PM

NQ is the only market to trade above its PDH. Link

Keene Little : 4/4/2007 12:08:35 PM

Equities pushing higher now. It's possible the 4th wave correction is complete, since the DOW held above the mid line of the up-channel I showed on its 30-min chart. But it's also possible this is just wave-b of a larger a-b-c 4th wave correction as per this updated chart. If it continues without pulling back then we'll instead be looking for where the 5th wave might top out. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2007 12:02:46 PM

4) was SPG's WEEKLY R1 ($114.63)

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2007 12:00:56 PM

3) was the Relative Strength Chart of SPG vs. SPY Link , which reversed back up, but fades a bit today. BEARS want a 75.00 reading and lower.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2007 11:59:09 AM

2) was the observation of intraday volume spike (196,700 shares) from Friday 03/23/07 (02:40-45 PM EDT) at $114.89.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2007 11:56:52 AM

1) was the 19.1% retracement from 05/24/06 relative low close, to recent 02/07/07 high close.

Keene Little : 4/4/2007 11:56:03 AM

Relative to my previous comment (11:02) about not wanting to trade a 4th wave correction, Michel asked, "Does this mean with never try to jump in for a wave 5, or just wait till we know wave 4 is complete?"

Very good question. I don't like to trade 4th waves until the pattern becomes clearer (since there are so many types of corrective patterns and you can get whipsawed too easily). If I see a triangle setting up then I might try to trade the last two legs of it. Or a c-wave of an a-b-c. As long as it's pretty obvious. But once I think the 4th wave is ending, usually by the pattern itself and especially if it's hitting support by a trend line, then I will try to catch the 5th wave.

There are many Elliotticians who live for the 5th wave. I like 3rd waves for obvious reasons. Also 2nd wave corrections can be good moves. The big caution in trading the 5th wave is that they can be very unreliable--they can truncate and fail early and without warning or they can extend (making the timing of a reversal tricky). But we'll watch the current consolidation for a setup for that 5th wave and see if we can catch it.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2007 11:55:34 AM

BIIIIG level of resistance in SPG was defendend by sellers yesterday. On many counts.

Jane Fox : 4/4/2007 11:52:54 AM

There is a very good chance Oil has made the retracement that I think is very healthy and may be a good spot to get long USO (I think Jeff already has). Of course this market is so influenced by externals factors it is hard to rely on the charts too much but what else do we have. If we "think" we know what is going to happen in world events then I have some ocean front property in Arizona I would like to sell you. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2007 11:51:57 AM

Mills Corp. (MLS) $25.58 (final) Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2007 11:49:11 AM

Simon Property Group and Hedge Fund Farallon Complete Purchase of Mill

Reuters Story Link

Keene Little : 4/4/2007 11:44:07 AM

Before I update the gold chart, here's the 60-min chart that I had posted Monday night (with today's prices now). It's messy but it shows the bullish wave count was triggered with a push above 674. Link

Here's an updated 60-min chart focusing on the rally from the March 5th low. I changed the bearish wave count slightly to call the ascending wedge an a-b-c-d-e count which calls the rally a b-wave correction to the decline from February. This actually fits very well and calls for another leg down to be at least equal to the first leg (giving us an initial downside target of 624.20, using this morning's high for the projection). Link

The bullish wave count calls for a slight pullback and a new high before a deeper pullback and then a continuation higher. The downtrend line from May 2006 is near 686 and that 78.6% retracement level. I suspect the 50-dma will be important to watch in a pullback and therefore I've identified it as a key level. This 30-min chart shows why this morning's high could have been it for the bearish wave count: Link

I show two Fibs lined up near 681.20. The first is based on the previous pullback on Friday/Monday. The 162% projection of that leg is the red one at 681.28. Two equal legs up from Monday is at 681.20. This morning's high was 681.10, and at the trend line along the highs of the bounce from March 5th.

In the larger a-b-c-d-e ascending wedge, the last leg up (wave-E on the chart) will be a 3-wave move and that's why this count fits very well here for a top to the bounce. It could certainly push a little higher but at this point I think gold bulls should be cautious. We may only get a minor pullback/consolidation, as per the bullish wave count, or we could start something steeper to the downside. I've gone short again with a stop at a new daily high--nice tight risk. I might jump right back in short if it looks like a new high is met with lots of bearish divergence.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2007 11:33:14 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2007 11:27:43 AM

M&T Bank Corp. (MTB) $104.78 -1.40% ... set to test Monday's low ($104.52)

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2007 11:22:53 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 4/4/2007 11:02:44 AM

Back for another look and no change. This is a day to find something else to do other than trade. You don't want to even think about trading 4th wave corrections (unless you like scalping a point at a time).

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2007 11:02:36 AM

Gold and silver "on fire"

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2007 11:02:16 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 4/4/2007 11:00:16 AM

TICKS +800. It just feels like the buyers are trying everything within their power to hold this market up today.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2007 10:46:45 AM

EIA: Weekly Percent Utilization of Refinery Operable Capacity rose a fraction to 87.03% from prior week's 87.01%.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2007 10:45:38 AM

EIA: Weekly Refinery Operable Capacity unchanged at 17.4 million barrels/day.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2007 10:44:07 AM

Bullish swing trade cancel order alert ... for the 1/4 position for the U.S. Oil Fund (AMEX:USO) $52.21 -0.47% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2007 10:42:44 AM

EIA: Weekly Crude Oil Inputs into Refineries fell by 115,000 barrels/day to 14.84 million barrels/day.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2007 10:40:57 AM

That has my Crude Oil # Days Supply rising to 22.11 from prior week's 21.90.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2007 10:40:12 AM

EIA: Weekly Gross Inputs Into Refineries up 4,000 barrels/day to 15.14 million barrels/day.

Jane Fox : 4/4/2007 10:38:29 AM

Maybe I need to sum all the markets together. For instance the summation of all three markets right now is 16 out of 30, which is reading of neutral and is also what the AD line at -282 is saying.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2007 10:38:02 AM

EIA: Weekly Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel Stockpiles down 48,000 barrels to 40.08 million.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2007 10:36:59 AM

EIA: Weekly ULS Diesel Stockpiles up 1.3 million barrels to 57.4 million.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2007 10:36:02 AM

EIA: Weekly Total Distillate Stockpiles down 77,000 barrels to 117.9 million.

Jane Fox : 4/4/2007 10:35:12 AM

When I was at a Futures seminar in Las Vegas last November a speaker presented a system that I thought was intriguing. It assigned a number to the yearly, monthly, weekly and daily opens then only took a long or short according to the summation of those numbers. There were a few days when I found the numbers to be of value and maybe alone they could be but I have had a hard time fitting this number system and my internals together.

Where I stand with it all now is I will still watch these numbers but more as a conglomerate that is to say if all the markets have a bullish number or bearish number and more as a backdrop. I think I was getting a little analysis paralysis. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2007 10:34:38 AM

EIA: Weekly Reformulated Gasoline Stockpiles up 382,000 barrels to 1.47 million.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2007 10:33:43 AM

EIA: Weekly Total Gasoline Stockpiles down 5.0 million barrels to 205.2 million.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2007 10:32:43 AM

EIA: Weekly Crude Oil Stockpiles up 4.3 million barrels to 332.7 million.

Jane Fox : 4/4/2007 10:25:59 AM

I don't need to show anymore. You get the "picture."

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2007 10:25:33 AM

Bullish swing trade long setup alert ... for 1/4 position for the US Oil Fund (AMEX:USO) $52.02 -0.83% ... should it trade $51.28. Stop goes $49.00, target $57.90.

Jane Fox : 4/4/2007 10:25:16 AM

TICKS +1000 they're baccckkkk.

Jane Fox : 4/4/2007 10:24:59 AM

Oil Link

Jane Fox : 4/4/2007 10:23:49 AM

Gold Link

Jane Fox : 4/4/2007 10:23:14 AM

Mid Cap. Link

Jane Fox : 4/4/2007 10:20:03 AM

The S&P. Link

Jane Fox : 4/4/2007 10:19:21 AM

The DOW. Link

Jane Fox : 4/4/2007 10:18:20 AM

Here is the $RUT and notice the only red is the weekly. Link

Jane Fox : 4/4/2007 10:17:28 AM

BTW I have taken the 30 and 15 minute timeframes off the SS because this is a longer term look at the market and they are just not relevant to a longer term picture.

Jane Fox : 4/4/2007 10:16:03 AM

Here is the jtHMA spreadsheet I showed yesterday. I will show you the charts that I use to create this spreadsheet in a minute. Link

Jane Fox : 4/4/2007 10:11:05 AM

Overnight lows were support for the large caps this morning. Link

Jane Fox : 4/4/2007 10:10:13 AM

I am out of my short and looking for a long now.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2007 10:09:58 AM

USD/JPY 118.74 -0.17%

Jane Fox : 4/4/2007 10:09:29 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - Apollo Management is working with Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan on a possible initial public offering in the same vein of rival private equity firm The Blackstone Group, according to press reports.

Run by former Drexel Burnham heavy hitter Leon Black, Apollo Management is exploring a bid to issue stock in what could be a $1.5 billion IPO representing a small percentage of the firm, according to a report in The Wall Street Journal that cited people familiar with the deal.

The newspaper reported that Apollo's executive ranks are denying any such plan is in the works, which could indicate that investment banks are trying to push Apollo into making a decision.

Jane Fox : 4/4/2007 10:08:46 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Orders for U.S.-made factory goods climbed 1.0% in February to a two-month high as orders for non-defense aircraft surged, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday.

Orders for new civilian aircraft rose by 88.4% following a drop of 60.4% in January.

Outside of transportation equipment, however, orders for factory goods dropped by 0.4% in February, the data show.

Shipments, meanwhile, declined by 0.5% in February.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2007 10:08:55 AM

US ISM March Non-Mfg Business Index 52.4 vs. Feb 54.3

Forecast was 55.00

Employment Index 50.8 Vs. Feb 52.2

Prices Index 63.3 Vs. Feb 53.8

New Orders Index 53.8 Vs. 54.8.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2007 10:05:10 AM

MBA's Weekly Application Survey at this Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2007 10:04:08 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Keene Little : 4/4/2007 10:02:35 AM

This DOW 30-min chart zooms in on the leg up from last Friday's low and as a c-wave it needs to be a 5-wave move. The current consolidation that was started off yesterday's high could continue sideways/down to its uptrend line (which would take the rest of today) as the 4th wave correction. Link

Following that should be another leg up in the 5th wave to complete wave-C of the A-B-C bounce from the March 5th low. In the selection of wave counts that I showed on the daily and 60-min charts, this is my preferred wave count at the moment.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2007 10:01:46 AM

Goldman Sachs (GS) $208.90 -0.40% Link ... NYSE-listed stock has been on a "buy signal" since 03/26/06 opening tick.

Jane Fox : 4/4/2007 10:01:10 AM

AD line is now -695 and the bears have the ball.

Jane Fox : 4/4/2007 10:00:46 AM

If you took my short at 9:53 it is time to take profits or at least lower your stop.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2007 10:00:26 AM

Simon Property Group (SPG) $113.82 -0.77% Link ... NYSE-listed stock has been on a "sell signal" since March.

Marc Eckelberry : 4/4/2007 9:58:56 AM

The weaker jobs report is also feeding into stagflation talk, another reason gold went up. Stagflation is only confirmed when employment drops, for those who use the word lightly.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2007 9:58:49 AM

PetroChina (PTR) $117.92 -0.74% Link ... NYSE-listed stock has been on a "sell signal" since early February.

Jane Fox : 4/4/2007 9:58:25 AM

I just lost my connection again so it looks like it is still unstable. ARGHHH!!!

Jane Fox : 4/4/2007 9:58:50 AM

This has turned into a really ugly chart but still bullish and does have clear support. Unfortunately though for anyone long this market there is no clear place to raise your stop. Gold is trading at 678 and a stop just under support at 661 seems a long ways off. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2007 9:56:54 AM

iShares Japan (EWJ) $14.68 +0.47% Link ... NYSE-listed stock has been on a "buy signal" since September '04

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2007 9:55:06 AM

Caterpillar (CAT) $67.35 +0.16% Link ... NYSE-listed stock has been on a "buy signal" since late January.

Jane Fox : 4/4/2007 9:54:44 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The dollar edged lower against the euro and yen early Wednesday on speculation that a report later this week will show the U.S. economy added fewer-than-expected jobs last month.

The Automatic Data Processing national employment survey showed U.S. private-sector nonfarm payrolls increased by about 106,000 in March. Adding in the average 24,000 government jobs created in a typical month in the past year, the ADP report would indicate growth in nonfarm payrolls of about 130,000 in March.

Economists polled by MarketWatch are expecting a gain of 168,000. The Labor Department will report on the March figures on Friday at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time.

The ADP report "suggests downside risk for the nonfarm-payrolls report," said T. J. Marta, strategist at RBC Capital Markets. However, in the big picture, "the jobs market remains tight and strong. The employment gains have trended slightly lower since 2005, although they remain consistent with a stable job market.

Jane Fox : 4/4/2007 9:53:06 AM

You could try a short here with a stop just above daily highs. Remember though there are traders out there who will run stops and just above daily highs is a very likely place for stop running.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2007 9:53:23 AM

StockCharts.com's NYSE Bullish % ($BPNYA) Link ... close to reversing back higher.

Keene Little : 4/4/2007 9:51:40 AM

Equities are going nowhere so the consolidation continues for now.

Jeff Bailey : 4/4/2007 9:53:16 AM

Sector Status Change alert! ... yesterday's action had Dorsey/Wright's NYSE Bullish % (BPNYSE) reversing back up to "bull confirmed" status at 68.00%.

Marc Eckelberry : 4/4/2007 9:44:24 AM

Gold traders are preparing for the oil inventories, which should take the price of gas up. Dollar weakness is also a cause, but mainly gasoline. Gold is the smartest group of traders out there, so you have to think they know something. Either that, or we saw the highs, but I still thing we should see 684, maybe even 689, monthly R1.

Jane Fox : 4/4/2007 9:43:03 AM

And now the aD volume just made a new daily high. Not time for shorting yet I'm afraid.

Jane Fox : 4/4/2007 9:42:36 AM

I want to try a short ER here but the VIX is still hanging around daily lows and that is dangerous for the bears.

Jane Fox : 4/4/2007 9:38:26 AM

AD volume is making new daily highs and VIX new daily lows and you know what that means.

Jane Fox : 4/4/2007 9:37:18 AM

Here's your daily chart of the Russell showing its possible trading range. Link

Keene Little : 4/4/2007 9:33:46 AM

It's a little surprising not to see a greater positive reaction in equities to the news out of Iran. And the metals have pushed back up some. There appears to still be some concern. Either that or the news related spike in the metals was the end of its upward correction (very typical way for these to finish) and now it will start down. We'll know that's likely if they close in the red today. Otherwise there could be another push higher there.

Jane Fox : 4/4/2007 9:31:58 AM

Careful bulls AD line is -82. Actually bears need to be careful as well.

Marc Eckelberry : 4/4/2007 9:30:12 AM

YG targets in view, 684 to 689, Support is 676 now.

Jane Fox : 4/4/2007 9:26:58 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - Crude-oil futures turned lower early Wednesday after Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad pardoned 15 U.K. Navy personnel being held captive by Tehran and said they would be released, ending a diplomatic crisis that had threatened oil supplies in the region.

Crude for May delivery fell 56 cents to $64.08 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange after trading as low as $63.80. The contract lost 2% of its value on Tuesday as traders began to unwind the risk premium built into prices during the crisis.

Ahmadinejad used a news conference for the Persian New Year to announce that the British sailors would be released, easing concerns about supplies. The announcement was not a major surprise; the U.K. government had said earlier that it believed that Iran would like an "early resolution" to the crisis.

The 15 sailors were seized by armed Iranian forces 13 days ago and charged with trespassing in Iranian waters. The U.K. had insisted they were in Iraqi waters, patrolling under a United Nations mandate when they were taken prisoner.

Jane Fox : 4/4/2007 9:22:49 AM

Dateline WSJ - Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad says he will free the 15 British sailors and marines detained in the Gulf last month. Full article coming soon.

Keene Little : 4/4/2007 9:19:12 AM

From Mark (thanks):

Iran saying they're going to pardon the british sailors in honor of the prophet's birthday caused spike.

That would explain the gyrations in the metals also, now coming back down. The message must have sounded more ominous initially.

Jane Fox : 4/4/2007 9:16:28 AM

Now Gold is retreating and Oil is breaking it overnight lows, right after breaking its overnight highs. Not sure what happened to cause this volatility.

Keene Little : 4/4/2007 9:14:23 AM

I'm glad I was stopped out of my gold and silver shorts yesterday. Seeing this morning's spike up in the metals and oil says something is happening overseas (Iran?). And now in the last few minutes we've had equities spike up. Something's happening and I'm not sure what yet.

Jane Fox : 4/4/2007 9:12:09 AM

The two scenarios I see happening is that SPX will bounce around in this trading range for a while or it will break this resistance and then retest it as support before retesting yearly highs. I am long IWM but think I should have used a mid cap ETF based on the spreadsheet I showed yesterday. I will get into that spreadsheet a little more today. Link

Jane Fox : 4/4/2007 9:06:39 AM

I suspect the $ took a dive.

Jane Fox : 4/4/2007 9:06:19 AM

My goodness Gold just spiked from 671 to 678 and Oil is now breaking its overnight high. I am going to wait a while before I post the overnight charts to see what the US $ is doing (on a 20 minute delay).

Jane Fox : 4/4/2007 9:03:07 AM

I can't tell you how much an internet connection or lack thereof can affect your day. Yesterday Charter (my ISP) lost its backbone in Washington Oregon and Northern California about 6:35 my time (9:35EDT). Actually it was 6:36 because I had 2 3 minute candles draw and then nadda. I tried a dial-up to stay connected with the outside world but of course was not able to run my charts. Even last night although I had a connection it was spotty and down more than up. I have one this morning and it looks stable (knock on wood).

The AD line and volume should have kept you on the long side yesterday and you should have had a very good trading day. The overnight session has seen a little retracement of those gains but that is a good thing for the bulls, too much too soon is dangerous, we want slow and easy. Link

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