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OI Technical Staff : 4/5/2007 9:59:59 PM

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Jeff Bailey : 4/5/2007 8:41:28 PM

GS and XBD.X's Daily (for Monday), WEEKLY, MONTHLY Pivot Levels at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/5/2007 8:16:07 PM

Bah... there it is. BIX.X MONTHLY Pivot and BIX.X WEEKLY R1.

Me thinks that for the GS calls, we need BIX.X and broader FINANCIAL strength on Monday/Tuesday into that level. Above would be fine indeed, but we need the bid Monday to carry the momentum.

Keene Little : 4/5/2007 7:57:51 PM

Monday's pivot tables: Link and Link

Keene Little : 4/5/2007 7:46:50 PM

I'll update GOOG, CME and gold after I get back (have to run out now). If I miss the closing window for today you can find it on Friday's postings. I'll also re-post them all Sunday night.

Keene Little : 4/5/2007 7:43:25 PM

Roadmap updates for Monday:

DOW daily: Link and 30-min: Link
The DOW is nearing its first Fib target at 12596 which is where wave-c of the a-b-c move up from March 14th equals 62% of wave-a. The 30-min chart shows 12592 is where the 5th wave of the move up from March 30th equals 62% of the 1st wave. The next higher Fib projection for the 5th wave (to equal the 1st wave) is just shy of 12650.

As I had mentioned during the day on Thursday, the 12600 area is also the top of the big red candle on February 27th and makes for a potential resistance area as those who were trapped in their longs bail at that level now. The short term pattern would look best with a small consolidation and then minor push higher in order to complete the 5th wave. At this point it looks vulnerable to breaking down and therefore caution is advised on the long side from here.

SPX Daily: Link and 30-min: Link
The setup for SPX looks essentially the same as for the DOW. The daily chart shows resistance by the top of its parallel channel from 2004 near 1453 and the first upside Fib target at 1455. The 30-min shows lower Fib targets just shy of 1446 and then 1451.51.

NDX Daily: Link and 30-min: Link
NDX has the potential for a different pattern on the daily chart, namely an ascending wedge for the move up from March 5th and that projects to about 1875 as per the bullish (green) wave count. But if it's doing a similar a-b-c bounce then there are Fib projections and gap close in the 821-824 area. The 30-min chart shows Fib projections a little lower near 1813. As shown on the 30-min chart it looks like a minor down-up sequence could finish the rally. There's also the possibility that the rally finished at Thursday's high so be careful if long.

RUT Daily: Link and 30-min: Link
Because the RUT has the possibility for a 5-wave move up from March 5th (in green), it and the red a-b-c count have Fib projections near the same potential area for a top--around 821. The next higher Fib projection is near 840.

As with the others we could see an immediate down day on Monday but as shown on the 30-min chart the pattern looks set up for a pullback and then another push higher into the end of the week. As noted on the chart, if the pullback looks corrective then we'll know there are more highs coming. If it drops impulsively first through 808 and then confirmed with a drop below 804 then we'll know the bears have taken over.

Jeff Bailey : 4/5/2007 7:40:38 PM

See? IF I were still short the BIX.X, I'd have a "level of strength" to cover at.

Jeff Bailey : 4/5/2007 7:39:28 PM

Sheeeeoooot ... BIX.X WEEKLY Pivot almost "dead on" with that conventional 61.8% retracement (384.52).

Jeff Bailey : 4/5/2007 7:38:22 PM

BIX.X's WEEKLY Pivot Levels using a close of 385.36 ... 376.83, 381.09, Piv= 384.36, 388.62, 391.89.

Yes ... correction to my earlier 06:21:11 post.

Swith it around to bullish, but just a smidge at 48%:52% (bear:bull).

Needs strength above MONTHLY Pivot to really bring in buyers.

Jeff Bailey : 4/5/2007 7:31:07 PM

Yes, yes ... I'm hurrying ... WEEKLY Pivots coming up ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/5/2007 7:12:32 PM

The more things change, the more they stay the same. HISTORY!

Jeff Bailey : 4/5/2007 7:12:03 PM

Jane mentioned today's news out of Ryland Group (RYL) $42.10 +2.06% ....

That jogged my memory of a trade in the past, from very similar price levels.

Jeff Bailey : 4/5/2007 7:09:50 PM

Yes, sensing/observing the pressure. Check out the DJUSHB close. Right at its "doji" close of 602.93 on 03/29/07. Three different days that DJUSHB closed right in here. Take a trend from the 07/21/06 low, attach it to that 03/13/07 low.

DJUSHB 602.93 +1.66% recaptures that trend today.

Jeff Bailey : 4/5/2007 7:05:52 PM

Hmmm ... maybe I'd better take back my 52%:48% bearish pulse into Monday.

Swith it around to 48%:52% bullish (bear:bull).

Jeff Bailey : 4/5/2007 7:04:11 PM

What's been the "weakest sector" in the U.S. Market Watch of late? What was the percentage gainer today?

New bull? Or are shorts getting a little edgy. Locking in what they now have.

Jeff Bailey : 4/5/2007 7:01:39 PM

Feeling/observing some pressure building ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/5/2007 7:01:19 PM

NYSE Composite ... all those "doji" bars in late February. We're points away.

Bears have to be saying ... "good gravy I hope those hold." Aggressive bulls will gladly help inflict pain with overhead supply once again limited and NYSE building PnF "buy signals" and back in column of X.

Jeff Bailey : 4/5/2007 6:58:15 PM

AAPL computer $94.68 +0.43% ... after breaking above that "right shoulder" at $93.00. Stock hasn't wanted to come much below that level.

Technical shorts still buying every time they get the chance? Bulls saying "it has $100 handle on it?"

Jeff Bailey : 4/5/2007 6:54:10 PM

Check out GOOG's daily interval bar chart. Maybe set some very short-term up/downside alerts there.

Great "pulse stock" for how aggressive market participants are. Bulls and bears.

Jeff Bailey : 4/5/2007 6:43:38 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/5/2007 6:32:11 PM

Just looking at today's internals and GS/XBD.X/BIX.X I've got a 52%/48% bearish bias into Monday's trade.

I've got a pretty good idea on what NEEDS to happen to change that bias to say .... 40%/60% (bear/bull).

Jeff Bailey : 4/5/2007 6:23:25 PM

Waddell&Reed (WDR) $24.31 +3.27% Link ... got upgraded by fellow broker Bear Stearns today.

WDR's bar chart darned similar to last Augusts.

Jeff Bailey : 4/5/2007 6:13:19 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/5/2007 5:10:55 PM

Goldman Sachs (GS) and a daily interval bar chart (similar to 04:58:06 XBD.X) at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/5/2007 4:58:06 PM

XBD.X Daily interval chart where XBD.X trades at SIMILAR price to November. I've "turned on" the WEEKLY Pivot Levels from QCharts. Cursor box is set to that Monday's bar of 11/13/06 Link

Keene Little : 4/5/2007 4:41:34 PM

I'll try to get the roadmap charts updated before the end of the day so that you can use them for your market review over the weekend, and then I'll re-post them Sunday night. I hope everyone has a great 3-day weekend. Happy Easter and we'll see you back here on Monday.

Jeff Bailey : 4/5/2007 4:43:46 PM

GS traders! Before you come to trade on Monday, GO back if you can to 11/10/06, PRETEND you're there tonight. What DID the XBD.X do 11/13/06 to 11/17/06.

Be READY to manage the GS trade based on SIMILARITY, or DIVERGENCE!

Hint: XBD.X NEVER fell below that week's PIVOT.

See my XBD.X chart at today's MM 02:28:48

Jeff Bailey : 4/5/2007 4:32:49 PM

Jane! Yes, per your 02:02:42 and 02:03:57 postings.

Since I follow all trade profiles, I'm treating/managing the GS April $210 Call (GSY-DB) as if expiration will be next Friday. I will not be here for the actual April 20th expiration.

I wouldn't let $320 of risk left unfollowed into an expiration if I didn't have to. For a $10,000 = Full position account, I'm unable to take exercise of 100 shares of a $210 stock ($21,000) either.

Only a subscriber with a MINIMUM $210,000.00 would be able to exercise such a position. That is, if utilizing proper account and risk management where one single position does NOT exceed 10% of account total.

Jeff Bailey : 4/5/2007 4:18:07 PM

End of day GS and broker/dealer analysis : Highly computerized and looks "squared up." Today, I focused on GS, the XBD.X and throw in some banks.

As I mentioned MONDAY EVENING, the banks and FINANCIALS are going to be key near-term. That's where the "bad news" is at right now.

Traders and investors should have a pretty good feel of "what needs to happen" for SPX/SPY/ES further strength.

The MARKET seems to be saying, c'mon we're going higher. As of today's close, the FINANCIAL's PRICE action doesn't seem to be saying that.

WALLstreet bullish % saying were going higher too. At yesterday's close, was 61.91%.

Jane Fox : 4/5/2007 4:15:21 PM

Happy Easter everyone and see you all on Monday morning.

Jeff Bailey : 4/5/2007 4:11:36 PM

Goldman Sachs (GS) goes out $207.93 -0.41% ... that's "in the zone" of my weekly Pivot ($207.83), QCharts' was $207.49 and matched today's trade much better (QCharts uses last tick at or before 04:00 PM) and my MONTHLY 38.2% of $208.17.

Jeff Bailey : 4/5/2007 4:07:39 PM

"All day" PHLX was on the inside of the ask on GPY-DB. He/she is a seller, saying "no more" than $2.80 + $210 = $212.80 at 04/20/07 expiration on Goldman Sachs (GS) Link

Keene Little : 4/5/2007 3:54:50 PM

No fear of the dark in tech land as they push it up into the close.

Jeff Bailey : 4/5/2007 3:51:04 PM

XBD.X Components at this Link ... This is an EQUAL weighted index.

Jeff Bailey : 4/5/2007 3:32:54 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List at this Link

Monitoring BSC, GS and LEH's 5 and 20-day NET%.

Keene Little : 4/5/2007 3:30:07 PM

I've changed the wave count for the NDX to look like the one I had shown earlier for the COMP. The count for the techs would look better with a small pullback and one final small push higher in order to give it a cleaner 5-wave move up from Wednesday's low. Many times these small final 5th waves are a no-show (I've been fooled many times waiting for it and then missing the reversal). Link

So while it would look best to see it play out as depicted on this updated chart, beware that we may not get it. But if it does play out as depicted then we'll get a small rally on Monday before topping out, at least in the techs. One look at the MACD bearish divergence though and it sure doesn't make me want to be long the market here.

Jeff Bailey : 4/5/2007 3:23:28 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 4/5/2007 3:12:54 PM

Looking at the VIX daily chart also shows the potential for a turn coming. It has dropped back down to its 200-dma which may offer support here. I've put an EW count on it just to see if it pans out. The pullback in the VIX to the March 21st low looks like it was the end of an A-B-C correction to the initial flare up to the March 5th high. Since March 21st it now looks like a small degree 1st wave up and 2nd wave pullback to today's low. Link

If it turns back up from here (meaning stocks sell off) then we'll have another steeper uptrend line on the chart. Also as a 3rd wave up in the VIX it would mean a sharp selloff in stocks is coming. The increasing steepness in the uptrend lines may be signifying the beginning stages of an acclerating climb which would obviously be bearish for stocks.

Jeff Bailey : 4/5/2007 3:07:00 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 4/5/2007 3:04:25 PM

This morning I said I thought SPX would break through resistance next week. Well I got the direction right but I was off on my timing. Link

Jane Fox : 4/5/2007 3:02:31 PM

I don't know if you have been watching but the AD line has made a high of +950 and is now currently at +900.

Keene Little : 4/5/2007 2:40:01 PM

One other Fib to throw at you on the NYSE--for the 5th wave, the move up that started on March 30th, which itself will be a 5-wave move (labeled as waves (i) through (v)), wave-(v) = 162% of wave-(i) at 9457.56. This is a very common Fib relationship between 1st and 5th waves in an extended move.

You can't make this stuff up and the alignment of these Fibs points to a good possibility we'll be hammering out a top here. Currently today's move can be counted as complete so it means it might not reach that Fib level. It also means it's time to start thinking about nibbling on some shorts.

Jeff Bailey : 4/5/2007 2:35:42 PM

So, I'm thinking that SPX/SPY/ES traders are "looking over their shoulder" right now. What are the XBD.X doing (lagging a bit relative to SPX/SPY), and what are the BIX.X doing (REALLY LAGGING the XBD.X and the SPX/SPY/ES).

Jane Fox : 4/5/2007 2:34:50 PM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The dollar fell to a two-year low against the euro and traded lower against the yen Thursday, on speculation a report Friday may show the U.S. economy created fewer jobs than expected last month.

Economists polled by MarketWatch are expecting growth in nonfarm payrolls of about 168,000 for March, while many other economists are expecting a much lower number. The Labor Department will release the report on Friday at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time.

"The market is pre-holiday and it's thin," said Ronald Simpson, managing director of global currency analysis at research firm Action Economics. "There have been some rumors that perhaps the nonfarm payrolls will be weaker than expected."

Keene Little : 4/5/2007 2:33:06 PM

One wave count idea that I was showing last week, but then decided I didn't like it, is shown here on the NYSE. The big pullback (in time more than price) last week got too big to call a 4th wave (at least it starts to not pass the "smell" test) but there's something interesting about the possibility. Looking at its 60-min chart I show how it would count out. Link

The March 5th low is the end of the 1st wave down and we've been in an A-B-C 2nd wave correction since that low. There are lots of reasons to not like this count but it doesn't violate any EW rules so I'm still considering it. The c-wave up from March 14th is where it gets interesting. All c-waves are 5-wave moves so that's how I have it counted and I show a projection for where wave-5 = wave-1, at 9456.63 which is only 7 points below the February high.

As a 2nd wave correction it can't exceed the previous high so any new high would immediately negate this count and have it in line with the A-B-C move up from March 14th as I've drawn on the others. But I find it more than a little interesting that the move is Fib'ing out at 9456.

If you'll recall when this was rallying in February I kept pointing to the 9455 level as being a very important Fib level based on the 2000-2002 decline. From the 2000 high, an equal move to the upside is at 9455.30. These kinds of measured moves in the market can be powerful turning points. Now here we have a small 5th wave of the corrective bounce pointing to the same level. Could be a very interesting setup, and a double top forming. And if rolls back over from a double top it will leave a massive bearish divergence on the weekly chart.

Jeff Bailey : 4/5/2007 2:32:46 PM

Now ... "the squeeze" is on in the SPX, and that's the MARKET.

That should NOT hurt the XBD.X, or at least give "reason" not to sell the group.

Jeff Bailey : 4/5/2007 2:29:54 PM

In relation to the XBD.X, the BIX are down at 217.96.

Jeff Bailey : 4/5/2007 2:28:48 PM

Broker/Dealer Index (XBD.X) DAILY Interval bar chart with today's additional commentary/observations. Also ... what is it going to take to get MACD above zero?

Here's the chart Link

NOT shown are next week's WEEKLY Pivot levels, but we've got a pretty good idea where they are going to be.

Jeff Bailey : 4/5/2007 2:14:53 PM

Ya,ha,ha,ha ... just doing this on the XBD.X.

Yesterday's bar was a "doji". Any OTHER day over the past couple of months show an influential "doji?"

How about that one on 02/22/07 (remember my/our SHORT on the RKH) on 02/23/07?

Now take a retracement from that 02/22/07 close on the XBD.X to the 03/13/07 low close.

Keene Little : 4/5/2007 2:09:38 PM

With the potential for today's high to be the 5th wave of the leg up from March 29th, and the fact that it will leave a bearish divergence on the daily chart if it rolls back over from near here, the setup continues to look good for the short side. Whether it turns into just a pullback or something more significant can't be known yet (or if it'll even pull back) but I have to say I like the setup for a down day on Monday. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/5/2007 2:04:47 PM

YOU and I both know that the BIX.X is currently trading as if the MARKET is fixated on its CONVENTIONAL retracement.

The XBD.X looks as if it is in "no man's land" on its CONVENTIONAL retracement.

Yet we KNOW where GS and the XBD.X are, or have been trading within their WEEKLY pivots.

This is our "advantage," or a bit of a knowledge base, that "conventional" retracement trader's may not have.

That's NOT to say I/we know where things are headed for SURE, but we have some levels of support/resistance between the conventional retracement levels that build the bias going forward.

Jane Fox : 4/5/2007 2:03:57 PM

Maybe you are saying that you are treating your trade "as if" next Friday was expiration not that it is.

Jane Fox : 4/5/2007 2:02:42 PM

Jeff April expiration is April 20th not the 13th.

Keene Little : 4/5/2007 2:02:17 PM

Another interesting thing about the 12600 area for the DOW (and SPX 1450) is that it would be a retracement of the big decline on February 27th. Think of that day as an air pocket and retracing it could be the end of the bounce as traders use that level as the "thank you God" opportunity to get out of their long positions.

Jeff Bailey : 4/5/2007 2:00:44 PM

GSY-DB ... FACT is, I've/you've paid $3.20 for a $210 Call.

$210 + $3.20 = $213.10

Now See next WEEK's WEEKLY R2.

Jeff Bailey : 4/5/2007 1:58:16 PM

Now ... I'm going to be out of the office from 04/14-04/22 and will not be here for April expiration.

That has NOTHING to do with how the XBD.X or GS trades going forward, but my DECISIONS on the GS Apr $210 Call (GPY-DB) are based as is NEXT Friday (04/13) is April expiration.

Jeff Bailey : 4/5/2007 1:54:02 PM

Note: the "conventional" retracement for the XBD.X using low close of 06/14/06 to recent 01/24/07 high close is at 245.74.

Now see my 01:49:02 post and note next week's WEEKLY R2.

For NEXT WEEK, that would be a MAX GAIN target.

Where's GS's WEEKLY R2?

Keene Little : 4/5/2007 1:51:18 PM

The DOW is working its way higher towards the Fib resistance level at 12596. If it can tag that level this afternoon, and looks to be topping out, that's another one I'd consider shorting over the weekend. Buying some put options would be the safer way to do it rather than shorting the futures.

Jeff Bailey : 4/5/2007 1:49:02 PM

XBD.X 239.69 +0.28% ... forecasting a close of 240.04 and WEEKLY R1.

IF the XBD.X does close 240.04 today, then next week's WEEKLY Pivot Levels would be ... 228.83, 234.43, Piv= 237.24, 242.84, 245.65.

Jeff Bailey : 4/5/2007 1:40:17 PM

GS $207.84 -0.45% ... should we close here (at WEEKLY Pivot), next week's WEEKLY Pivot Levels would be ... 200.37, 204.10, Piv= 207.03, 210.76, 213.69.

Jeff Bailey : 4/5/2007 1:32:40 PM


DJ- Industry trade group, Cable Television Advertising Bureau, says it won't take part in further trials of eBay's Online Media Exchange system, a proposed online marketplace for buying television ad time.

EBAY $33.59 -0.38% ... may some negative near-term implications for April options expiration.

Jeff Bailey : 4/5/2007 1:30:53 PM


DJ- DaimlerChrysler AG says sales of its Chrysler unit outside North America in March gained 18% on the year, and closed with 22,375 units sold. As for the 1Q, sales outside North America increased 13% over the same period last year.

Keene Little : 4/5/2007 1:30:47 PM

With the number of economic reports tomorrow morning and the market closed, this could be setting up for a disappointing reaction on Monday. That's just a guess but the wave pattern is so far supporting that view.

Jeff Bailey : 4/5/2007 1:19:53 PM

Reuters Chrysler (DCX) story Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/5/2007 1:19:07 PM

Reuters- Kerkorian to Bid $4.5 Billion for Chrysler

Jeff Bailey : 4/5/2007 1:15:29 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/5/2007 1:03:07 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Keene Little : 4/5/2007 1:02:06 PM

For the NDX chart I had shown (11:59) the possibility for a small pullback before pressing hihger but now that it has pressed higher without the pullback it's looking more like we're into the 5th wave up. I've got a slightly different wave count for the move up from March 29th on the COMP chart as compared to the NDX chart. This COMP 30-min chart shows what could be a small ascending wedge for the 5th wave today. Ideally we will get a small consolidation/pullback and then a final leg higher. Link

This is why I'm thinking we may close near the high today and also why it could set up a nasty surprise for the bulls on Monday. If the price plays out this way for the rest of the day I could be tempted to tuck a few put options into my pocket for the weekend just in case. A break of this morning's 2455.60 low would be a sell signal.

Jeff Bailey : 4/5/2007 1:00:49 PM

Huge move in DCX $84.00 +2.79%

Jeff Bailey : 4/5/2007 12:57:44 PM

I'm thinking ... if BIX.X can pull free, and make the move to MONTHLY Pivot, then computers should "shut off" at XBD.X WEEKLY R1 today.

Unfortunately, market's are close on Friday and April out the money calls (ie. GPY-DB) are going to lose 3-days, instead of 2, to time decay.

Jeff Bailey : 4/5/2007 12:54:10 PM

BIX.X 384.48 (unch) ... won't budge from that 61.8% retracement. Monday's Market Wrap BIX.X chart Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/5/2007 12:23:05 PM

VIX.X 12.82 -3.17% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/5/2007 12:21:24 PM

GS $208.22 -0.27% ... morning action in option montage sure looks like some April expiration action/balancing/fine tuning.

Jeff Bailey : 4/5/2007 12:17:42 PM

XBD.X 239.73 +0.29% ... may get a look at WEEKLY R1 (240.04) to see how computers are probrammed.

Keene Little : 4/5/2007 12:06:40 PM

With this push higher, for those who prefer to stop in on a short play once it breaks support, this morning's lows are now the key levels. A break below this morning's lows would now be a sell signal.

Jeff Bailey : 4/5/2007 12:03:25 PM

Nice buy program comes in

Senior traders may have left the office, turn it over to assistants with meassage of "just don't mess anything up." Followed by, "see you Monday."

Keene Little : 4/5/2007 12:03:16 PM

Pushing higher says wer're probably into the 5th wave. It's now looking like the spike up here is the 3rd wave of the final 5th wave and that suggests another consolidation followed by a final poke higher. This means we could see today finish at the highs. But it also means there could be a nasty surprise for the bulls on Monday.

Keene Little : 4/5/2007 11:59:52 AM

For the NDX (and very similar for the COMP), I've got a slightly different different wave count for the move up from March 29th. This is a bit of a guess based on the initial price action off that low but I'm thinking we still need to finish the 4th wave correction before getting the 5th wave up. Link

If it cotninues to push higher from here (which it's starting to do as I finish this) then that would say we're into the 5th wave up. But a pullback from here could finish the correction before we get a new high. A Fib projection based on the A-B-C move up from March 14th is just under 1813 and makes for a good upside target (equivalent for the COMP is 2476). Both of these projections would mean a poke into their gaps left on February 27th but not closing them. Any time a move into a gap that fails at or below 50% of the gap would be a bearish sign so something to watch for there.

But as I mentioned before, the final leg up could truncate and catch a lot of traders by surprise. I show downside price levels that are key levels for the bears. On the other hand, any rally above 1815 (2480 on the COMP) would likely mean we'll get a rally back up to the February highs in the techs.

Jane Fox : 4/5/2007 11:57:39 AM

TICKS +1000

Jeff Bailey : 4/5/2007 11:56:34 AM

11:22 Internals found at this Link

Yesterday's Internals at this Link

Well, it looks like the vendor I have been using for years for NH/NL measures is no longer giving intraday data, but only closing data.

Their NYSE NH/NL readings for yesterday were 220:11.

NASDAQ NH/NL was 123:39

I'm currently using Yahoo! Finance's NH/NL measures, but it has been my observation and data checking that Yhoo's NH/NL measures tend to be flawed by "bad ticks" overly stating NH and NL readings.

Jane Fox : 4/5/2007 11:40:38 AM

Odds are that we will see higher highs next week. Link

Jane Fox : 4/5/2007 11:38:45 AM

That was a very odd reaction to a +800 TICK reading.

Jane Fox : 4/5/2007 11:37:42 AM

VIX to new daily lows and AD volume to new daily highs. Not a time to be short.

Jane Fox : 4/5/2007 11:37:09 AM

TICKS +800.

Keene Little : 4/5/2007 11:29:54 AM

I'm back and I see not much is happening. No great surprise there. Volume is drying up as expected so the only danger now is a price spike from a program trade.

Jeff Bailey : 4/5/2007 11:24:35 AM

11:22 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/5/2007 11:19:46 AM

Ryland Group (RYL) $42.22 +2.35% Link ... still above our 07/28/06 bull entry of $40.85. Exited right around here on 08/04/06 at $42.40.

Jane Fox : 4/5/2007 11:09:51 AM

BOSTON (MarketWatch) -- Hopes for a housing rebound this spring selling season were further diminished Thursday, as Ryland Group Inc. said lower home prices will likely drive write-downs and a quarterly loss as subprime-mortgage fears weigh heavily on the market.

Late Wednesday, the Calabasas, Calif.-based home builder (RYL) said it expects to post a first-quarter loss between 50 cents and 60 cents a share on an impairment charge of about $65 million.

"At the end of the fourth quarter, we were cautiously optimistic that pricing had begun to stabilize," said Chief Executive Chad Dreier in a statement.

"However, as the first quarter progressed, it became clear that aggressive pricing strategies persisted in several markets, requiring us to write down the value of some of our assets," he said.

"Ryland's strategy of trying to hold pricing was likely unsustainable given the deteriorating market conditions, and was only delaying land charges," said Banc of America Securities analyst Daniel Oppenheim.

Jeff Bailey : 4/5/2007 11:05:45 AM

GS $207.92 -0.41% ... right at 4/03/07 entry point.

VIX.X 13.12 (was 13.23 at entry point)

GPY-DB $2.50 x $2.55.

Jeff Bailey : 4/5/2007 11:03:14 AM

Reminder: Markets will be closed tomorrow for Good Friday.

Jeff Bailey : 4/5/2007 11:02:22 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 4/5/2007 11:02:05 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Treasurys traded little changed Thursday, as traders hunkered down to await the March jobs report due for release Friday.

Economists polled by MarketWatch are expecting the report to show the economy added 168,000 jobs in the month. The ADP private-sector employment survey released Wednesday suggested the report may fall short of that expectation, pointing to payroll growth of about 130,000.

Ahead of the Easter weekend, the bond market will be open for two hours to allow traders react to the widely anticipated report on growth in U.S. nonfarm payrolls.

"Expect another low volume range trade today with position adjustments in front of tomorrow shortened holiday session with [nonfarm payrolls]," said John Spinello, fixed-income strategist at Jefferies & Co.

Jeff Bailey : 4/5/2007 10:59:56 AM

EIA: Weekly Nat. Gas Storage Table at this Link ... Build of 58 BCF.

Keene Little : 4/5/2007 10:45:56 AM

Stepping away for 30 minutes.

Keene Little : 4/5/2007 10:38:22 AM

Here's an update to the DOW 30-min chart after this morning's quick pullback and push back up. Link

Assuming the 5th wave of the move up from last Friday has now started we have some Fibs lining up nicely just under 12600. While that's the first upside target (12649 being the higher target), the one caution here is that 5th waves can, and often do, truncate. Therefore if we get a push above the highs of the recent consolidation that is then followed by a break below 12496 that would be a sell signal. In the meantime I'm watching how this develops to the upside.

Jane Fox : 4/5/2007 10:34:03 AM

No more trading for me today.

Jane Fox : 4/5/2007 10:32:43 AM

You know this is taking too long and I am going to bail.

Jane Fox : 4/5/2007 10:31:58 AM

My stop is now at b/e.

Jane Fox : 4/5/2007 10:25:29 AM

Hand on the sell button.

Jane Fox : 4/5/2007 10:24:02 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Veraz Networks Inc. priced its initial public offering below its range for stock market debut Thursday as Wall Street bid down shares the money-losing tech firm.

Veraz (VRAZ) said in a filing with regulators that its IPO priced at $8 a share, below its $10-$12 price range, for its stock market debut Thursday.

The San Jose, Calif. tech firm raised $72 million by offering 9 million shares with underwriters Credit Suisse and Lehman Brothers.

The maker of voice over Internet protocol gear for telecom carriers reported a 2006 net loss of $14 million on revenue of $100 million, compared to a loss of $14.3 million on revenue of $76 million in the year-ago period

Jane Fox : 4/5/2007 10:22:37 AM

Raising my stop on my long ER position.

Keene Little : 4/5/2007 10:19:35 AM

SPX held its uptrend line on this morning's quick spike down and that's the move that may have finished the 4th wave correction (dark red wave-(iv) on this 30-min chart: Link

If it can rally from here then it should be the 5th wave and the upside Fib targets are just shy of 1446 (62% of the 1st wave) and then 1451.51 (equal to the 1st wave). In the larger A-B-C bounce from March 14th, wave-C = 62% of wave-A at 1455. There isn't a tight correlation of Fibs there so I'll be watching the form of the 5th wave to determine more precisely where a top could form.

Once the 5th wave finishes then we'll be due a pullback at least (green bullish wave count) or the start of the next decline. If we get a small rally followed by a drop through 1435 then that would be a clue that the 5th wave truncated and the pullback/decline has started. The next key level to the downside is 1424 and then confirmation for the bearish wave count would be a drop below 1409. Any rally above 1455 would make the bullish wave count more likely.

Jane Fox : 4/5/2007 10:07:06 AM

TICKS +800.

Jane Fox : 4/5/2007 10:06:17 AM

I certainly did not want this trade to turn into a marriage but I have not gotten a sell signal yet so holding on. VIX and AD volume are cooperating though.

Jane Fox : 4/5/2007 10:04:48 AM

This is not a bullish chart and an excellent reason to be long gold. Link

Jane Fox : 4/5/2007 9:55:51 AM

Here are your numbers for the day. ER and ES are bullish. Link

Jane Fox : 4/5/2007 9:51:51 AM

I am now long ER.

Jane Fox : 4/5/2007 9:47:38 AM

AD Volume made new daily highs and the VIX made new daily lows just before I got a signal to exit my short.

Jane Fox : 4/5/2007 9:46:11 AM

Never trade against the VIX.

Jane Fox : 4/5/2007 9:45:42 AM

And I just got a buy signal to cover my short.

Jane Fox : 4/5/2007 9:44:17 AM

OK VIx is now to new daily lows and that is not good news for my short.

Jane Fox : 4/5/2007 9:41:56 AM

VIX is just not talking to me this morning.

Jane Fox : 4/5/2007 9:41:20 AM

AD line as "improved" to -175 but AD volume is making new daily lows.

Jane Fox : 4/5/2007 9:40:11 AM

This resistance is why SPX's weekly jtHMA is still red. I suspect this resistance will not break today and the weekly will not turn green until next week. Link

Jane Fox : 4/5/2007 9:33:58 AM

I am short ER now.

Jane Fox : 4/5/2007 9:33:11 AM

AD line -250.

Keene Little : 4/5/2007 9:32:41 AM

Be careful of this quick leg down at the open here. It could be the move that is finishing the sideways consolidation we've been in which would mean we've a got a rally to follow.

Jane Fox : 4/5/2007 9:20:20 AM

Here is the spreadsheet of the jtHMA. Most noteworthy is that the $RUT's weekly has turned green. A good entry if you want to take a longer term position in this market is to wait for the 60 minute to turn back green. That may not happen today however. Link

Keene Little : 4/5/2007 9:15:51 AM

It was a very quiet session overnight in just about all the markets. Once we get through the first couple of hours this morning I suspect it will become dead out there as people leave for the long weekend. Of all the charts I showed in last night's Wrap, this DOW 30-min chart is the one I currently like best as far as showing the best potential for price action. I'll update the shorter term charts of the others as the morning progresses and I get some more clues. Link

Jane Fox : 4/5/2007 9:13:22 AM

Gold and Oil may be the markets to trade today. I would certainly stay on the long side if you do decide to try them. Link

Jane Fox : 4/5/2007 9:08:21 AM

This is called digesting the huge bite the bulls took out of the bears on Tuesday and I suspect we will get more digestion today. It may be be a hard day to trade. Link

Jane Fox : 4/5/2007 8:58:46 AM

Dateline WSJ - A sharp increase in homes offered for sale last month suggests that home shoppers will find plenty of choices this spring.

The number of homes listed for sale in 18 major U.S. metropolitan areas at the end of March increased 6.5% from a month earlier, according to data compiled by ZipRealty Inc., a national real-estate brokerage firm in Emeryville, Calif. The data cover listings of single-family homes, condominiums and town houses on local multiple-listing services.

Over the past 22 years, home inventories nationwide have increased an average of 1.7% in March from February, according to Credit Suisse Group. Supplies typically rise modestly in March as sellers pursue the many families with children who seek new homes in the spring, so they can move during summer vacations.

The big rise in the latest month may reflect sellers' expectations that it will take much longer to find buyers than it did during the housing boom of the first half of this decade, said Patrick Lashinsky, president of ZipRealty. Rather than waiting for April or May, he said, many people planning to move this summer put their homes up for sale in March. He added that many sellers are being cautious, waiting to sell their old homes before committing to buy new ones.

Jane Fox : 4/5/2007 8:56:41 AM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- Weekly initial U.S. jobless claims rose by 11,000 to stand at 321,000 for the week ending March 31, their highest level since March 3, the Labor Department reported Thursday. However, the four-week average of new claims fell by 1,500 to 315,750, the lowest since Feb. 3. Meanwhile, the number of people collecting unemployment checks fell to 2.49 million, down 25,000, in the week ended March 24. It's the lowest since Jan. 27. The four-week average of continuing claims fell by 7,500 to 2.52 million, the lowest in six weeks.

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