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Keene Little : 4/8/2007 10:30:49 PM

Gold could be in trouble on Monday if the jump in the US dollar on Friday (from the stronger jobs number) holds into Monday. But if the bounce in equity futures also holds then that could be at least short term bullish for the metals as well. But the bigger influence on the metals is what the US dollar is doing so keep an eye on the currencies. Here are the roadmaps for gold (June contract):

Daily: Link and 60-min: Link
The daily chart shows the downtrend line from May 2006 just above Friday's closing price, just under 687. It's also up against the mid line of its up-channel for price action since its October 2006 low. And it's also the 78.6% retracement of the quick drop from February 27th. So that's the upside potential before setting up at least a pullback.

The dark green bullish count shows a pullback to perhaps the 50-dma (a key level) and then a continuation higher. Both the light green and dark red wave counts show a much deeper pullback and the dark red is the most bearish, calling for a decline below $600. Gold is close enough to putting in a high for now so if the US dollar continues to get a bounce started then the metals would likely start their pullback from Friday's highs. But if gold turns back up to a minor new high then the next shorting opportunity should be around 686-687.

Keene Little : 4/8/2007 10:28:32 PM

Adding to the roadmap updates, here are the ones for CME, GOOG:

CME Daily: Link and 120-min: Link
The bearish wave count on CME is very bearish as it shows 3 sets of 1st and 2nd wave counts down and by this count it's looking for a very sharp break to the downside. But this would not be confirmed until it breaks below 510. Until then there are two potential bullish counts--the dark green shows an immediate continuation higher (and a break above 575 would confirm it) and the light green shows a pullback first.

The 120-min chart shows CME recently stalled at its downtrend line and Fib resistance near 558--two equal legs up from March 16th and the move up from March 16th was 62% of the leg up from Febrary 27th to March 8th. Note that this 62% projection is very common for a leg within a developing sideways triangle, as the light green wave count shows. That count calls for a pullback to the 527 area (could see a slight under-throw of the bottom of the triangle) followed by a rally to a new high.

GOOG Daily: Link and 120-min: Link
GOOG's chart is a bit messier as I'm considering a couple of different ideas for this stock. We'll have to let it break a key level in order to tell us which one will take preference. The dark green bullish wave count calls for a break of the downtrend line from January. A break above 485 would confirm the bullish count as it would also be a break of Fib projections and the 62% retracement, all in the 479-484 area (shown on the 120-min chart).

Two of the wave counts (dark red and light green) call for resistance at its downtrend line near 480 and a turn back down. Then the bearish wave count calls for a break below the lower trend line along the lows since November. The light green count calls this line the bottom of a descending wedge for a 4th wave correction. The dark red bearish count calls for a clean break (not just an under-throw) of that lower trend line and therefore that makes for the key level for the bearish count.

This one is a little more confusing so the simpler approach with GOOG is to first look for it to hold below 485. If GOOG can rally up to the 479-484 area, shorting it there with a stop just above 485 would be the right play. Then assuming it drops down to close its gap at 426, take some profits off the table and watch how it reacts around this area. A clean break below 420 would be bearish.

Keene Little : 4/8/2007 10:25:04 PM

Roadmap updates for Monday, 4/9/07 (re-posted from late Thursday):

DOW daily: Link and 30-min: Link
The DOW is nearing its first Fib target at 12596 which is where wave-c of the a-b-c move up from March 14th equals 62% of wave-a. The 30-min chart shows 12592 is where the 5th wave of the move up from March 30th equals 62% of the 1st wave. The next higher Fib projection for the 5th wave (to equal the 1st wave) is just shy of 12650.

As I had mentioned during the day on Thursday, the 12600 area is also the top of the big red candle on February 27th and makes for a potential resistance area as those who were trapped in their longs bail at that level now. The short term pattern would look best with a small consolidation and then minor push higher in order to complete the 5th wave. At this point it looks vulnerable to breaking down and therefore caution is advised on the long side from here.

**Sunday night update--with futures still up after Friday's economic reports, it looks like a gap up open and that sets up a potential gap n crap on Monday morning. Be careful of that possibility.

SPX Daily: Link and 30-min: Link
The setup for SPX looks essentially the same as for the DOW. The daily chart shows resistance by the top of its parallel channel from 2004 near 1453 and the first upside Fib target at 1455. The 30-min shows lower Fib targets just shy of 1446 and then 1451.51. SPX closed at 1443.76 and is therefore close to the first upside target.

NDX Daily: Link and 30-min: Link
NDX has the potential for a different pattern on the daily chart, namely an ascending wedge for the move up from March 5th and that projects to about 1875 as per the bullish (green) wave count. But if it's doing a similar a-b-c bounce then there are Fib projections and February 27th gap close in the 1830 area. The 30-min chart shows Fib projections a little lower near 1813 (Thursday's closing price). As shown on the 30-min chart it looks like a minor down-up sequence could finish the rally. There's also the possibility that the rally finished at Thursday's high so be careful if long.

**Sunday night update--as mentioned above, the gap up says no pullback and instead it looks like an immediate push higher. Not shown on the chart is the uptrend line from November currently near 1820 so watch that for resistance if we end up gettinga gap n crap Monday morning.

RUT Daily: Link and 30-min: Link
Because the RUT has the possibility for a 5-wave move up from March 5th (in green), it and the red a-b-c count have Fib projections near the same potential area for a top--around 821. The next higher Fib projection is near 840. Closing price on Thursday was 813.35.

As with the others we could see an immediate down day on Monday but as shown on the 30-min chart the pattern looks set up for a pullback and then another push higher into the end of the week. As noted on the chart, if the pullback looks corrective then we'll know there are more highs coming. If it drops impulsively first through 808 and then confirmed with a drop below 804 then we'll know the bears have taken over.

**Sunday night update--it's not looking like a pullback is the first thing we can expect but as shown on the 30-min chart, a quick pop higher followed by a drop below its uptrend line, currently near 811, would be more immediately bearish.

Keene Little : 4/8/2007 10:12:19 PM

Monday's pivot tables: Link and Link

OI Technical Staff : 4/8/2007 9:59:59 PM

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