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Jeff Bailey : 4/10/2007 1:54:47 AM

May Crude Oil (cl07k) up 23 cents at $61.74. QCharts' WEEKLY S2 here at $61.70.

Jeff Bailey : 4/10/2007 1:53:09 AM

YM down 5 points at 12,634

Jeff Bailey : 4/10/2007 1:52:19 AM

Nikkei-225 ($NIKK) Link ... currently down 105 points, or -0.60% at 17,638.

Session high/low so far has been 17,706.02 / 17613.15.

Jeff Bailey : 4/10/2007 1:48:57 AM

Bank of Japan Leaves Call Rate Unchanged At 0.50%

Keene Little : 4/10/2007 12:16:16 AM

CME: Link
If the larger sideways triangle is playing out then CME should drop down to near 527 (with a bounce in the middle of the move down). If it finds support above 540 and then heads above 561 then it will be bullish. A break below 527 would be bearish. In between could see lots of chop in this one.

GOOG: Link
GOOG looks like it's getting ready for another leg up, in which case the 480 area would be the target high (or its downtrend line from January). But if it drops below 465 then it will probably head into its gap from April 3rd (closing it would be at 458.40).

Gold (June contract): Link
Gold took a good tumble from Monday's high, which was a perfect touch of the trend line along the highs since early March. It's possible that was the end of its rally in which case the 50-dma (668) should be tested shortly. But the futures are back up to around 680 as I type this up on Monday night so it may push higher again on Tuesday. The Fib target near 686 (which is also weekly R1) would be a little throw-over above the potential ascending wedge for price action since early March. That would be the last level I'd look to short gold--any higher than that and it would be time to buy the dips.

Keene Little : 4/10/2007 12:02:09 AM

For the roadmap updates, since price went basically flat today, the daily charts haven't changed much (you can see them at the beginning of the posts for Sunday, April 8). I'll update the 60-min charts:

DOW: Link
Because of the sideways price action it looks like it could go either way. The Fib projections established a resistance zone at 12592-12596 and Monday's high was 12594. Not bad. The next upside Fib resistance level is 12635 if the bulls aren't done yet. And if they really get excited then 12814 and the top of its parallel up-channel for price action since March 14th could be the target.

But with a daily candlestick looking like a shooting star doji at Fib resistance it could be a reversal signal in the making. It needs a red candle on Tuesday to confirm. Late in the day it looked like a small impulsive move down followed by a corrective bounce. That suggests we could see an immediate down day on Tuesday. It takes a break below 12496, and preferably its uptrend line from March 14th, to tell us the bearish wave count is the preferred count.

SPX: Link
Basically the same setup as the DOW. If it presses a little higher then Fib resistance is at 1451.51 and then 1455. A drop through 1435 and its uptrend line from March 14th is needed for the bearish wave count.

NDX: Link
The broken uptrend line along the lows since November was almost tagged at the spike high on Monday morning. Another attempt at it would take it up to about 1821-1822 on Tuesday morning. But price action looked bearish at the end of the day and it could continue lower right away on Tuesday. A break below 1795 would say the bears have the ball.

RUT: Link
As I had mentioned during the day on Monday, this is the index that gives me the feeling we could see another leg higher for its rally, in which case the 821-824 area would be the target. But any break below 808 and its uptrend line from March 14th would be more immediately bearish.

Keene Little : 4/9/2007 11:24:55 PM

Tuesday's pivot tables: Link and Link

OI Technical Staff : 4/9/2007 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

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Marc Eckelberry : 4/9/2007 9:19:46 PM

OEX: Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/9/2007 5:47:42 PM

May Unleaded (rb07k) settled down $0.0342, or -1.61% at $2.0946.

Jeff Bailey : 4/9/2007 5:44:39 PM

May Crude Oil (cl07k) settled down $2.77, or -4.31% at $61.51.

Jeff Bailey : 4/9/2007 5:40:38 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/9/2007 5:33:21 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 4/9/2007 4:03:57 PM

I've got to run some errands this afternoon so I probably won't be able to get the roadmaps updated until this evening. I'll post them tonight regardless. Enjoy the rest of your day.

Keene Little : 4/9/2007 4:02:15 PM

The RUT unfortunately still leaves the door open to a continuation higher after the small sideways consolidation today completes. RUT bears want to see this index break 810 and then 808.

Keene Little : 4/9/2007 4:00:58 PM

The DOW and SPX daily charts are sporting little shooting star doji's. If these are followed by red candles tomorrow then we'll confirmation of the bearish reversal pattern. The short term EW pattern supports this interpretation. I'd rather be short than long right now.

Keene Little : 4/9/2007 3:36:24 PM

Following up on GOOG's earlier 120-min chart ( Link ) the 60-min chart looks a little closer at today's action which actually continues to look bullish for another push higher (with the corrective looking sideways/down correction since April 3rd). A push up to the 480 area still looks like a good possibility. The risk is a sudden drop so I'm not sure I'd want to play the long side here. Link

Keene Little : 4/9/2007 3:23:18 PM

It's possible the leg down from today's high in gold is the completion of an a-b-c correction from the high on April 4th (exanded flat correction). That would mean another push higher as shown in green on the 60-min chart. Link

The more bearish wave count says we're due a small bounce and then a continuation lower. A break back below its 50-dma at 668 is needed to confirm the high for the bounce from March 5th is probably complete. A stop on a short play stays at a new daily high (683) until it bounces to correct today's drop and then turns back down to a new low for this move.

Jeff Bailey : 4/9/2007 3:15:34 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Jane Fox : 4/9/2007 3:11:47 PM

Certainly looks like I will be exiting my long USO position. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/9/2007 3:02:46 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Keene Little : 4/9/2007 2:46:05 PM

The stock market indices look like they could use a minor new low and then it would likely be ready for a bounce into the close. If the market topped out today then we have wave-1 down here and then a bounce would be wave-2. That scenario would keep the bulls bullish and then be surprised with a down day tomorrow. OK, maybe that's wishful thinking since I'm short but that's the way it's looking so far. If you shorted today's highs then you'll want to keep your stop at a new daily high for now.

Jeff Bailey : 4/9/2007 2:43:03 PM

Fed Fund Futures April, May, June all pretty much 94.75.

(100 - 94.75)= 5.25%

Keene Little : 4/9/2007 2:38:47 PM

The TNX daily chart shows the continuation higher in interest rates as the bond market starts to price in the Fed either staying steady for much longer, or possibly raising rates before lowering them. Link

Right now it's a very large gap up (down in bonds) because of Friday's brief trading. TNX is now hitting its 200-dma so it would be a natural place to pull back, especially since the oscillators are now into overbought. But if yields rally a little higher then the next level of resistance for TNX is the downtrend line from June 2006 and a Fib projection at 47.9 (4.79%).

Keene Little : 4/9/2007 2:36:38 PM

Jane, that's another reason I wanted to try shorting gold today and the high at its trend line along recent bounce highs was a perfect entry.

Jane Fox : 4/9/2007 2:34:39 PM

I was musing earlier that a rising $ and falling Oil would take its toll on Gold and it sure has today.

Jane Fox : 4/9/2007 2:34:02 PM

Gold just made a successful retest of its overnight low showing you just how important those levels can be and why you should keep them on your charts. Link

Keene Little : 4/9/2007 2:16:20 PM

CME has continued in its pullback from last Friday's high. Support might be found at 543-546 for a bullish continuation higher (dark green) otherwise next support would likely be closer to 530. The 60-min chart zooms in a little closer to price action that I showed on the 120-min chart last night--120-min chart: Link and 60-min: Link

Jane Fox : 4/9/2007 2:12:39 PM

But this is what trading is all about, playing the odds however, those who have an exit strategy will live to see another day and those who do not will not.

Jeff Bailey : 4/9/2007 2:12:15 PM

Larijani: Iran May Review Cooperation If New Curbs Imposed

DJ- Iran's nuclear negotiator, Ali Larijani, warned Monday if further sanctions are imposed, Iran could review the extent of its cooperation with the U.N. nuclear watchdog agency under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.

"The European side has made the NPT ineffective by its behavior but we are not interested in such a thing. When we face their harsh attitude, there is a possibility of making another decision under the pressure of the parliament," Larijani was quoted as saying on the state broadcasting company's Web site.

"They may end up undermining the NPT with their actions," Larijani was quoted saying by Fars, an Iranian news agency. "And if they slap us with reprimands, we may come under pressure from the (Iranian parliament) to reconsider our attitude."

The Iranian parliament last year gave the government permission to reduce cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency in case of new sanctions.

Iran announced Monday it has begun enriching uranium with 3,000 centrifuges, a dramatic expansion of a nuclear program that has drawn U.N. sanctions and condemnation from the West.

President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said at a ceremony at the enrichment facility at Natanz that Iran was now capable of enriching nuclear fuel "on an industrial scale."

Asked if Iran has begun injecting uranium gas into 3,000 centrifuges for enrichment, Larijani replied, "Yes." He did not elaborate, but it was the first confirmation that Iran had installed the larger set of centrifuges after months of saying it intends to do so. Until now, Iran was only known to have 328 centrifuges operating.

Jane Fox : 4/9/2007 2:09:36 PM

It certainly looks like I may be looking for the exit on my USO long position but I need a CLOSE below the 50EMA before I will bail. This is also not good for my long GLD position either. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/9/2007 2:09:21 PM

USO $50.20 -3.48% ... undercuts MONTHLY 38.2% retracement here. WEEKLY S2 $50.06.

Jeff Bailey : 4/9/2007 2:06:11 PM

BIIIIG volume spike in the USO (436,900 shares) from 01:22-01:24 PM EDT from $50.74-$50.80.

Keene Little : 4/9/2007 2:00:15 PM

The RUT looks due a pullback but the door is still wide open for a continuation higher after a pullback (as part of a 4th wave correction, labeled in green). The bearish wave count says the bounce from March 14th, and therefore from March 5th, is now over and get ready for a big decline to follow (to at least match the one from the February high). A break of 808 would signal the more immediately bearish wave count (dark red) has preference, which would be confirmed with a break below 804. Link

Keene Little : 4/9/2007 1:46:06 PM

After a nice 5-wave move up from this morning's low, the NDX looks like it may have put in a truncated finish to its rally (truncated because this afternoon's low was below this morning's). A drop below 1808 would be a short term sell signal but it takes a drop below 1795 to trigger a better sell signal. Upside potential remains to a Fib projection near 1825 and any pullback here followed by push higher would very likely make it at least that high. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/9/2007 1:42:23 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List found at this Link

Keene Little : 4/9/2007 1:40:33 PM

The DOW managed to tag its 1st Fib target at 12592 (where the 5th wave of the move up from March 30th = 62% of the 1st wave). A break below 12565 would be a sell signal but the stronger sell signal wouldn't come until a break below 12496. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/9/2007 1:40:00 PM

Swing trade COVERED put cancel order alert ... Please cancel the order to SELL COVERED the iShares Japan EWJ Apr $14 Puts (EWJ-PN) for $0.45/contract.

REPLACE with order to SELL COVERED the same EWJ Apr $14 Puts (EWJ-PN) for $0.35/contract.

Keene Little : 4/9/2007 1:34:47 PM

SPX still shows the potential to move higher and that keeps me from getting more aggressively bearish here. The 1st Fib target just under 1446 has been hit but there are two others--1451.51 and 1455--that could be in the market's sights. At this point though I think the upside is risky. Link

Keene Little : 4/9/2007 1:26:57 PM

As the DOW moves up to potential resistance just under 12600 the NYSE is also moving up to potential Fib resistance at 9455. This is a big one for the NYSE so I'm definitely looking to short the market around here. The bearish divergences on the 30 and 60-min charts also tell me this rally is potentially running out of steam. The techs and small caps are reluctantly hanging around but not looking terribly bullish. Banks (BIX) still red.

Jeff Bailey : 4/9/2007 1:15:29 PM

01:00 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/9/2007 1:11:43 PM

Bullish swing trade long alert ... for 1/4 position (50 shares) of the US Oil Fund (AMEX:USO) at the offer of $50.64.

Stop goes $48.80, target $56.00

Jeff Bailey : 4/9/2007 1:02:18 PM

01:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/9/2007 12:50:48 PM

Goldman Sachs (GS) $209.05 +0.53% ... edges to session high.

Jeff Bailey : 4/9/2007 12:49:45 PM

Goldman gets some UpTick Vol at April $210 and $220 calls.

Keene Little : 4/9/2007 12:47:49 PM

After tagging 683 gold is now getting a decent pullback and has now dropped into the red. Maybe my 3rd attempt at shorting gold will stick this time. At least the last two attempts were breakeven stops and now I'm short from a slightly higher level. Stop belongs at a new daily high now, keeping risk very small.

Jeff Bailey : 4/9/2007 12:46:30 PM

SPY $144.72 +0.33% ... edges to session high.

Jeff Bailey : 4/9/2007 12:46:02 PM

VIX.X 12.93 -2.26% ... slips to session low.

Jeff Bailey : 4/9/2007 12:42:28 PM

S&P Banks Index (BIX.X) 383.09 -0.58% ... 30-minute interval chart with WEEKLY/MONTHLY Pivot retracement Link

Keene Little : 4/9/2007 12:41:45 PM

The DOW is now only 10 points below the 12596 Fib target which would also be another test of its broken uptrend line from March 30th. Could be a good spot to look it over carefully for a short play to set up.

Jeff Bailey : 4/9/2007 12:39:54 PM

BIX.X 383.12 -0.58% ... looks like it wants to take another peek at WEEKLY Pivot.

Jane Fox : 4/9/2007 12:38:26 PM

With the $ hanging around daily highs and Oil falling, I don't see a lot of upside to Gold today. Of course my long GLD is longer term position so what is happening today will not affect my position.

Jeff Bailey : 4/9/2007 12:37:37 PM

GS bidder up at $208.63

Jeff Bailey : 4/9/2007 12:35:45 PM

Goldman Sachs (GS) $208.42 +0.23% ... 30-minute interval chart with WEEKLY/MONTHLY Pivot retracement at this Link

Jane Fox : 4/9/2007 12:33:38 PM

AD volume to new daily highs and VIX to new daily lows and it is not a time to be short.

Jeff Bailey : 4/9/2007 12:15:28 PM


DJ- Firm's profit jumps to $28.4 million, or 93c a share, boosted by higher sales volumes in its metals recycling unit. Revenue rises 50% to $604.4 million. Analysts expected EPS of 62c on revenue of $493 million.

SCHN $45.89 +12.66% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/9/2007 12:13:41 PM


DJ- Google apologizes to Sohu.com, which complained that Google's tool for inputting Chinese characters, appeared to copy material from Sohu's Sogou search engine.

GOOG $468.20 -0.70% Link ...

SOHU $21.93 +0.64% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/9/2007 12:11:37 PM


DJ- Citigroup on Wednesday will unveil the long-awaited results of a restructuring initiative led by COO Robert Druskin. As part of the restructuring plan, Citigroup may shed about 15,000 jobs, or about 5% of its total workforce.

C $51.50 -0.13% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/9/2007 12:09:51 PM


DJ- Shares gain 5% as the chip maker plans to reduce cost structure and cut this year's capital spending by $500 million. Move could signify a shift away from going after near-term market share at the expense of profit. More details to be released in 10 days. AMD also sees 1Q revenue of about $1.23 billion, below analysts' expectations of $1.55 billion, amid lower overall average selling prices and significantly lower unit sales.

AMD $13.48 +4.82% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/9/2007 12:00:48 PM

Dow Chemical Shares Rise Following Report Of Possible Buyout

DJ- Shares of Dow Chemical Corp. (DOW) rose as much as 7% Monday following a British newspaper report saying a buyout approach for the chemical company could be days away.

The Sunday Express reported that J.P. Morgan had assembled a group of Middle Eastern investors and Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co. to stage a $50 billion buyout offer.

The paper first reported the bid in February, causing a spike in Dow Chemical's shares. However, analysts said at the time that although a breakup of Dow Chemical could create value, it would face many obstacles, not least of which a likely hostile reaction from the company's management.

J.P. Morgan had planned to make the offer, but ended its involvement after Dow Chemical Chairman and Chief Executive Andrew Liveris told the companies to walk away, a person with knowledge of the matter told the The Wall Street Journal.

Citing an unnamed source, CNBC's David Faber also reported Monday that the company isn't interested in a private-equity buyout.

A spokesman for Dow Chemical declined to comment.

Lehman Brothers analyst Sergey Vasnetsov, who has an equal weight rating on Dow Chemical stock, said a private equity deal wouldn't be profitable for the company.

"Dow is very large and may be too complex for a private equity fund group or a chemical company to acquire...both strategically and financially this transaction would not make sense for Dow at this time," Vasnetsov wrote in a research note.

Shares of Dow Chemical were recently up $2.31, or 5.1%, at $46.73, with around twice the average daily volume of shares traded.

In addition, Dow Chemical credit protection costs practically doubled on the report. Five-year credit default swaps recently traded 73 basis points midpoint, up from 37 bps Friday, meaning it costs $73,000 annually to protect $10 million of Dow Chemical bonds for five years, up from $37,000 at the end of last week.

Jeff Bailey : 4/9/2007 11:55:27 AM

Halliburton No Longer Working In Iran

DJ- Halliburton Co. (HAL) said all its contractual commitments in Iran have been completed and the company is no longer working in the country.

The Houston energy services company announced in January of 2005 that no new work in Iran would be accepted and that only contractual commitments existing at that time would be honored.

"Halliburton's prior business in Iran was clearly permissible under applicable laws and regulations," the company said in a release Monday.

Keene Little : 4/9/2007 11:53:59 AM

Jane showed a great chart in her 10:48 update (the spreadsheet showing green and red bars per time frame). Gold is all green. That's a great way to see where strength lies but the one caution I'll advise about that is that it shows strength but not where a top could form. Understand that it will show all green at a market top. My attempt to short gold is based on identifying where I believe it will top, or at least find resistance. I'm not a momentum trader but instead look for where the turns might be. It's an easier way for me to control my risk.

Jeff Bailey : 4/9/2007 11:48:48 AM

VIX.X 13.29 +0.45% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/9/2007 11:48:36 AM

Bullish swing trade establish stop alert ... for the Goldman Sachs GS April $210 Call (GPY-DB) at $206.85 in the underlying.

GS $208.18 +0.12% ...

GPY-DB $2.40 x $2.55

Keene Little : 4/9/2007 11:47:28 AM

At 683 gold ran into the trend line along the highs of its bounce from the March 5th low. It's a good place to try again a short. If the US dollar continues to rally, which it looks ready to do, it will be supportive a short play in the metals. Upside potential for gold is about 686 so that's the risk potential here. It's possible that gold will do a little throw-over above the top of its ascending wedge, but not necessary. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/9/2007 11:45:05 AM

Alcoa (AA) $35.05 +1.32% ... Friedman, Billings & Ramsey upping price target to $30.00 from $22.00.

Jeff Bailey : 4/9/2007 11:33:09 AM

A lot of cash coming out of Treasuries today. Looks like it is staying here with DXY 83.03 +0.04% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/9/2007 11:32:26 AM

10-year Treasury Yield ($TNX.X) up 7.5 bp at 4.749%.

Jeff Bailey : 4/9/2007 11:30:58 AM

Fed Buys Par Value of $1.011 Billion for Coupon Pass

Jeff Bailey : 4/9/2007 11:30:14 AM

Holly Corp. (HOC) $62.00 +2.04% ... new 52-weeker.

Jeff Bailey : 4/9/2007 11:27:33 AM

Friday's Forex Economic Calendar (results) found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/9/2007 11:18:20 AM

11:00 Internals found at this Link

Keene Little : 4/9/2007 11:16:51 AM

The DOW has yet to tag its Fib target at 12596 so another push higher would have me watching that level carefully for a top to this run.

Jane Fox : 4/9/2007 11:15:45 AM

Here is how the markets are trading in relation to their respective PDRs. Link

Keene Little : 4/9/2007 11:15:40 AM

The DOW broke its uptrend line from March 30th this morning and is now back up retesting it, currently near 12582. The bounce off the low is so far only a 3-wave bounce so a turn back down to a new daily low would be bearish. A continuation higher would obviously be just the opposite. Link

Keene Little : 4/9/2007 11:08:05 AM

Running it right back up so now we watch for the possibility of a retest of this morning's highs. If met with a bearish divergences then it would be worth testing the short side. If no divergences then we'll probably continue higher.

Jane Fox : 4/9/2007 11:07:42 AM

Gold continues its bull rally. Link

Jane Fox : 4/9/2007 11:04:48 AM

TICKS +800.

Jane Fox : 4/9/2007 11:04:27 AM

The bulls have the reins now. AD volume to new daily highs, VIX to new daily lows and the TRIN is 0.69. The only fly in the ointment is the AD line is a measly +125.

Jeff Bailey : 4/9/2007 11:02:11 AM

11:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 4/9/2007 10:50:32 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures rose Monday, as traders shrugged off weakness in crude-oil prices and strength in the U.S. dollar.

Gold for June delivery gained $2.30 at $681.80 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. With economic data lacking until the latter half of the week, "gold will have to find its bearing on internal market conditions and show strength or weakness based mainly on the appetite of physical buyers and the gut feelings of speculative institutionals," said Jon Nadler, analyst at Kitco Bullion Dealers.

The dollar hovered near a six-week high against Japan's yen and rose slightly against the euro Monday, as traders continued to react to growth in U.S. nonfarm payrolls for March that were much stronger than expected

Jane Fox : 4/9/2007 10:49:19 AM

The other thing I did not mention is the Wilshire 5000 (DWC) is all green as well. This is pretty bullish folks.

Jane Fox : 4/9/2007 10:48:01 AM

Here is my jtHMA Spreadsheet. The thing that sticks out for me is that fact that Oil's 60 minute did not get back green but has now flowed into the 120 minute chart. Also notice the SPX is all green now. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/9/2007 10:38:32 AM

Weekly/Monthly Pivot Matrix (DXY corrected) at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/9/2007 10:30:38 AM

Weekly Pivot; (Correction) ... US Dollar Index (CEC:DXY) did trade 1/2 session on Friday. Weekly Pivot Levels are ... 82.31, 82.65, Piv= 82.93, 83.27, 83.55.

Jane Fox : 4/9/2007 10:28:33 AM

Here is where the markets are trading in relation to their open. Link

Keene Little : 4/9/2007 10:26:37 AM

The RUT has broken below its uptrend line from March 29th so watch for a retest of the line, currently near 810.50-811.00, to see if it holds as resistance now.

Jane Fox : 4/9/2007 10:21:26 AM

I have my AD volume back and it is making new daily highs but the AD line is at -161 so I am just stepping aside for now.

Keene Little : 4/9/2007 10:15:34 AM

If NDX drops below 1804, near the high on April 4th, that would suggest the leg up from that date has finished. And that should be the last leg for the rally from March 29th. Therefore it would be a signal to get short.

Jeff Bailey : 4/9/2007 10:05:52 AM

Burlington Northern (BNI) $89.00 +7.56% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/9/2007 10:05:48 AM

Berkshire acquires stake in Burlington Northern ... Bloomberg News Story Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/9/2007 10:01:43 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/9/2007 9:59:13 AM

BIX.X 383.87 -0.38% ... have slipped below their WEEKLY Pivot (not bullish).

Jeff Bailey : 4/9/2007 9:58:38 AM

Dow Transports (TRAN) 506.39 +3% ... notably strong this morning.

Keene Little : 4/9/2007 9:54:29 AM

INTC also got a big bounce this morning--gapped up and is currently up +2%. But it jumped right up to resistance at its downtrend line from January and its 50 and 200-dma's, all right around the current $20 level. I actually think INTC could be a decent short play here based solely on this nest of resistance. I'd keep a tight stop no higher than about 20.25.

Jane Fox : 4/9/2007 9:54:05 AM

Still no Ad volume thus no TRIN data either but I do see the VIX making new daily highs and that should keep you away from trying to get long.

Keene Little : 4/9/2007 9:48:39 AM

The Trannies got lift off this morning, up +125 or 2.5% this morning. But the banks are in the red also. I'm not bullish this market based on what I'm seeing so far this morning.

Jane Fox : 4/9/2007 9:47:17 AM

Dateline BBC News - Iran has entered an "industrial stage" in its production of nuclear fuel, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has said. He was speaking at a ceremony at the Natanz uranium enrichment plant to mark Iran's nuclear technology day.

Iran maintains its nuclear programme is for civilian purposes, but the West fears it wants to build atomic bombs.

Correspondents say the announcement that Iran has achieved industrial-scale enrichment is likely to further strain tensions with the West

Journalists and diplomats have been invited to the special events taking place at the site, but European Union diplomats are boycotting them in protest at Iran's refusal to comply with UN demands to end its uranium enrichment programme.

The most sensitive areas at Natanz, deep underground, are thought to be halls for up to 50,000 centrifuges - the machines that enrich uranium gas

Keene Little : 4/9/2007 9:47:12 AM

NDX and RUT have gone red and this is not what the bulls want here.

Keene Little : 4/9/2007 9:40:16 AM

If this morning's gaps are closed then the bulls are certainly going to want to see those levels held. A gap up open followed by a down day today would be a potentially bearish reversal signal.

Jane Fox : 4/9/2007 9:39:57 AM

ER's daily and weekly open is 819.40 so it is +10 above this number and +3 below.

Jane Fox : 4/9/2007 9:37:58 AM

I do not have any AD volume data. I certainly rely a lot on this data and lost without it.

Jane Fox : 4/9/2007 9:37:20 AM

AD line is +225, basically neutral.

Keene Little : 4/9/2007 9:25:22 AM

The US dollar is up and metals are rallying so we have at least a short term divergence between the two. Very likely the metals are rallying because of the concerns about inflation. Which of course begs the question why equities are rallying. Truly a stock market that has its cake and is eating it too. If the rally from last summer was based on expectations for a Fed easing in interest rates then the stock market should be tanking on all this inflation talk and expectation for the Fed to follow through on a rate increase instead of a decrease.

Once again it shows you can't trade the stock market short term on news. It does however raise the risk this morning about what might happen in the stock market after the cash open. At least be aware of the Feb 27 gaps and the potential for double tops against the February highs.

Jane Fox : 4/9/2007 9:23:26 AM

Here is a daily chart of Oil's Emini QM. A close below the 50% retracement at 62.00/bl which just happens to be the 50EMA as well would have me stepping aside and selling my long USO position. Link

Jane Fox : 4/9/2007 9:18:33 AM

Yesterday after we finished all the turkey and the chocolate bunnies and after all my Easter guests had left I sat down to peruse the charts. I happened to notice the $ up, Oil was down and Gold was testing overnight lows. I thought I could get a quick short here before it heads back up again. I never did get a fill and am I very glad I didn't. Gold is now testing its PDHs. Link

Jane Fox : 4/9/2007 9:08:51 AM

The U.S. Labor Department said Friday that nonfarm payrolls expanded by 180,000 in March, while the unemployment rate slipped to 4.4% from 4.5% in February. Economists surveyed by MarketWatch had been expecting jobs growth of 168,000 and a jobless rate of 4.5%, on average

Jane Fox : 4/9/2007 9:06:31 AM

As I am sure you are all aware of by now, the employment figures out on Friday were very good and the futures reacted accordingly. I agree with Keene you probably do not want to buy this right out of the gate but I do believe it sets us up for a bullish day. Of course I will be watching the AD line and volume and the VIX to tell me if this is so or not. Link

Jane Fox : 4/9/2007 8:58:17 AM

Dateline WSJ - Soaring prices for farm goods, driven in part by demand for crop-based fuels, are pushing up the price of food world-wide and unleashing a new source of inflationary pressure.

The rise in food prices is already causing distress among consumers in some parts of the world -- especially relatively poor nations like India and China. If the trend gathers momentum, it could contribute to slower global growth by forcing consumers to spend less on other items or spurring central banks to fight inflation by raising interest rates.

Politicians in markets where food costs are a particularly sensitive matter are moving to counter rising prices before they take a bigger economic toll or fuel unrest. But it remains unclear whether those policies will be enough to contain the current pressures, or whether a longer-term bout of food-price inflation -- similar in ways to the recent climb in prices for oil and other commodities -- is in the offing.

One of the chief causes of food-price inflation is new demand for ethanol and biodiesel, which can be made from corn, palm oil, sugar and other crops. That demand has driven up the price of those commodities, leading to higher costs for producers of everything from beef to eggs to soft drinks. In some cases, producers are passing the costs along to consumers. Several years of global economic growth -- led by China and India -- is also raising food consumption, further fanning the inflationary pressures

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