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Keene Little : 4/10/2007 11:31:40 PM

re-posts of pivot tables and roadmap updates:

Wednesday's pivot tables: Link and Link

Updates to the 60-min roadmaps for Wednesday: the general theme seems to be the same across the indices--we have negative divergences against the highs on March 23rd and today and shorter term divergences against the highs from last week. The bullish interpretation of the shorter term divergences (as noted on the DOW chart) is that price is instead consolidating for a run higher. I show the potential for a push higher but I feel this market is vulnerable and ready to drop quickly and without warning.

DOW: Link
SPX: Link
NDX: Link
RUT: Link
CME: Link
GOOG: Link
Gold (June contract): Link

With tightening going on in the credit world and an apparent slowing in money creation, as shown in this updated calculated M3 chart: Link (note the significant slowing in the rate of change), the market should experience some trouble with liquidity contraction. I'm not sure what's holding this market up.

It seems most who believe in the bull market have already jumped aboard. Cash levels in mutual funds are at near-record lows (as a percent of assets). I just don't feel comfortable recommending the long side of this market. Bears continue to have a hard time with this market but I feel it's worthwhile to somehow be exposed to the short side, if only for at least a hedge position.

OI Technical Staff : 4/10/2007 9:59:59 PM

The Market Monitor has been archived. You may view it and any previous days here: Link

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Jeff Bailey : 4/10/2007 8:19:18 PM

May Unleaded (rb07k) settled up $0.0284, or +1.36% at $2.123.

Jeff Bailey : 4/10/2007 8:18:26 PM

May Crude Oil (cl07k) settled up $0.38, or +0.62% at $61.89.

Jeff Bailey : 4/10/2007 8:14:55 PM

Closing Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/10/2007 8:03:36 PM

Closing U.S. Market Watch found at this Link

Keene Little : 4/10/2007 6:19:00 PM

Updates to the 60-min roadmaps for Wednesday: the general theme seems to be the same across the indices--we have negative divergences against the highs on March 23rd and today and shorter term divergences against the highs from last week. The bullish interpretation of the shorter term divergences (as noted on the DOW chart) is that price is instead consolidating for a run higher. I show the potential for a push higher but I feel this market is vulnerable and ready to drop quickly and without warning.

DOW: Link
SPX: Link
NDX: Link
RUT: Link
CME: Link
GOOG: Link
Gold (June contract): Link

With tightening going on in the credit world and an apparent slowing in money creation, as shown in this updated calculated M3 chart: Link (note the significant slowing in the rate of change), the market should experience some trouble with liquidity contraction. I'm not sure what's holding this market up.

It seems most who believe in the bull market have already jumped aboard. Cash levels in mutual funds are at record lows (as a percent of assets). I just don't feel comfortable recommending the long side of this market. Bears continue to have a hard time with this market but I feel it's worthwhile to somehow be exposed to the short side, if only for at least a hedge position.

Keene Little : 4/10/2007 6:17:18 PM

Wednesday's pivot tables: Link and Link

Keene Little : 4/10/2007 5:05:23 PM

For AA I noticed that the Feb 27 gap down gets closed at 35.39 which has been tagged in after hours. It should hit it tomorrow morning as well. The pattern of the move up from March 5th is similar to the broader market and counts well as an A-B-C bounce. The first Fib projection at 35.09 was tagged yesterday and today. With what looks like a small ascending wedge to finish its c-wave I see the possibility for a quick flare up tomorrow morning followed by selling. It could just tank right out of the gate but with the after-hours bounce that doesn't look likely at the moment. Link

Keene Little : 4/10/2007 4:51:31 PM

The earning's report from AA looks to be a snoozer. While it showed strong sales it missed earning's by a penny (75 cents vs. expected 76 cents). AA got a boost after hours, up as high as 35.76 after closing at 34.91. It's currently trading near 35.40. DOW futures are up a little but basically flat on the day. So unless AA says something nasty in their guidance it doesn't appear this one will move the market.

Jeff Bailey : 4/10/2007 4:07:11 PM

Alcoa (AA) $34.90 +0.08% ... earnings any minute.

Consensus looking for EPS of $0.77 on Revenue of $7.57B

Keene Little : 4/10/2007 4:04:56 PM

The banks left an inside and doji day today so no clues from them today.

Keene Little : 4/10/2007 4:03:27 PM

The small caps did not participate with the techs so that's a non-confirmation if that holds into tomorrow.

Jeff Bailey : 4/10/2007 4:03:25 PM

So close ... eBay (EBAY) $33.99 +0.74% ... couldn't quite get the $34.00 or higher close. Some action today in the Jul $32.50 Calls (XBA-GZ).

Keene Little : 4/10/2007 4:03:40 PM

Ding ding ding, the DOW closes in the green! That's 8 days in a row for the DOW. A whole 5 points for today, but shhh, let's not bother with such minor details.

Keene Little : 4/10/2007 3:59:35 PM

NDX has broken out of its sideways triangle so that looks bullish as we head for the close. Needless to say it can't tolerate a collapse back under 1815 now otherwise it will look like a head fake break.

Keene Little : 4/10/2007 3:43:55 PM

The pullback on the DOW since yesterday's high looks corrective in that it has overlapping highs and lows and looks like a 3-wave pullback. That suggests it should rally out of this. Bearishly it would be interpreted as a 1-2, 1-2 wave count to the downside and the next move will be a strong 3rd of a 3rd wave down first thing tomorrow morning. I guess the reation to AA will tell us which it will be. Unless you can stop out of your position quickly, it's a risky play heading into the close. Perhaps a straddle option play and then exit the losing side first thing tomorrow.

Keene Little : 4/10/2007 3:37:45 PM

As Denise reminded me, if they can get a positive close for the DOW today, making it 8 in a row for the DOW, that would be the best performance in the last 4 years. That would keep the sheeple excited about buying the market at the top. The bottom line is that the Fib zone of 12592-12596 is still holding it down. Until that gets taken out I don't see enough to get me excited about the upside here.

Keene Little : 4/10/2007 3:29:24 PM

Here's the put/call chart from stockcharts.com (as of yesterday's close). It's hard to see but the blue 10-dma has pulled back from its early March high. This chart has turned more neutral since early March. Link

Jane Fox : 4/10/2007 3:27:04 PM

VIX to new daily lows and AD volume to new daily highs. It doesn't look the needed retracement will be today.

Keene Little : 4/10/2007 3:26:07 PM

NDX is nearing the top of its little sideways triangle from Monday's high--at 1815. Watch the head fake break but buy the breakout of a retest holds. The other option is to short that downtrend line from Monday.

Jeff Bailey : 4/10/2007 3:26:03 PM

Apex Silver Mines (SIL) $15.16 +2.29% ... reverses losses. Works its way above $15.00 strike.

Marc Eckelberry : 4/10/2007 3:25:58 PM

Odds are we get a pullback, but we are not done with highs overall.

Jane Fox : 4/10/2007 3:24:38 PM

Today is the 6th up day for the SPX and it needs to take a breather. A retracement would be very good this week.

Marc Eckelberry : 4/10/2007 3:23:41 PM

YM is headed for 12684 at least.

Jeff Bailey : 4/10/2007 3:22:57 PM

A "lift from the bottom" ... BHI $69.44 +3.37% ...

Keene Little : 4/10/2007 3:21:55 PM

One thing's for sure--if the market is being held up on expectations for a good earning's report out of AA tonight, it's possible we'll get a downside reaction, no matter what Alcoa says.

Marc Eckelberry : 4/10/2007 3:21:02 PM

NDX and COMP already had a down day yesterday. COMP held 2468 and that is a very bullish sign. I'm having a hard time seeing anything bearish other than overbought conditions.Big bullish candle for chips and I am not going to argue with billions of dollars going long. The Yen is the only caveat, we will see how it behaves.

Jane Fox : 4/10/2007 3:20:54 PM

Keene Brinker uses a 10MA P/C ratio . This is also only one of "internals" he uses.

Jane Fox : 4/10/2007 3:19:19 PM

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Friedman, Billing, Ramsey Group Inc. said on Tuesday that it plans to sell shares in its capital markets business in an initial public offering that could raise as much as $243 million.

Friedman, Billings Ramsey (FBR) hopes to sell shares in FBR Capital Markets, which specializes in investment banking, institutional brokerage services, asset management and private wealth management, the company said.

Up to 13.51 million shares will likely be sold at between $16 and $18 each, Friedman, Billings added

Keene Little : 4/10/2007 3:18:42 PM

Jane, the put/call ratio since March 14th has since pulled back into neutral range and therefore probably not much help in determining the next move.

Jeff Bailey : 4/10/2007 3:18:23 PM

Mmm, mmm, mmmm ... OIH $151.69 +1.83% ... busting a move today. Threatens a close above $150.00.

Keene Little : 4/10/2007 3:16:52 PM

Looks like there's a lot of effort to make it 8 days in a row for the winning streak for the DOW. It's a good place to finish--on a Fibonacci 8 days.

The NYSE is pressing back up to this morning's high and the short term up-channel supports the idea it could press up towards 9500. But the bearish divergences on the 60-min chart, and now on the 15-min chart at today's potential double top (if it doesn't rally much higher than this morning's high), would have me a nervous long here. Link

It wouldn't take much of a drop to break its uptrend line from March 14th, currently near 9444 (which is also the bottom of its little up-channel from Arpil 4th).

Jane Fox : 4/10/2007 3:13:02 PM

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The U.S. economy is in a slowdown, but the pace of growth should accelerate as the year unfolds, Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher said Tuesday.

"I believe that we will continue to grow, and the pace of growth will pick up as we go through the year," he told a business group in McAllen, Texas.

Fisher said that the economy was downshifting from an unsustainably fast pace early last year.

"We are in a bit of a slowdown here," he added.

Most of the difficulties were due to the woes in the housing sector. "There is a correction taking place. The issue is how severe is that correction."

Marc Eckelberry : 4/10/2007 3:12:24 PM

I agree Jane. The obvious trade is to be short. It's the wrong trade I think.

Marc Eckelberry : 4/10/2007 3:11:42 PM

SMH Aug 35 calls at 1.90, buying on a break above 34.72, 61.8%. Chips are VERY bullish if 34.72 holds.

Jane Fox : 4/10/2007 3:10:51 PM

Investor sentiment is showing there is a lot of fear out there and that is always good for the bulls. The bulls get scared when the sentiment turns bullish.

Jeff Bailey : 4/10/2007 3:10:14 PM

03:00 Internals found at this Link

Jane Fox : 4/10/2007 3:09:33 PM

Keene one of the reasons Brinker is bullish is because the Investor sentiment (put/call ratio) reading is so bearish. On March 14 the 10MA of the P/C index was the highest it has ever been 1.32. Once again it is a game of odds and from my camp the odds are in favor of the bulls.

Keene Little : 4/10/2007 3:02:22 PM

Jane, Bernie Schaeffer has become a rabid bull as well as McMillan and Brinker. Seems most have become over-the-top bullish again. It's either real or an indication of the excessive bullish sentiment typically found during the first bear market rally from the decline off the top. We'll soon find out.

Jeff Bailey : 4/10/2007 3:02:09 PM

03:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 4/10/2007 2:54:02 PM

Here is a look at Regan's VLO. It is continuing its bullish ways. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/10/2007 2:53:57 PM

It feels like spring, but it also feels/looks like mid-September'06.

Jane Fox : 4/10/2007 2:51:49 PM

This chart of the SPX supports both Larry McMillan's and Bob Brinker's stance that the market will move higher. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/10/2007 2:51:34 PM

BIIIG volume in the RKH yesterday. 1.76 million shares.

Jeff Bailey : 4/10/2007 2:49:46 PM

RKH.X ... old bar chart we've used in the past has 38.2% retracement juuuust above at $158.05. Look how that bugger traded up at 19.1% of $162.53.

Jeff Bailey : 4/10/2007 2:47:21 PM

Regional Bank HOLDRs (AMEX:RKH) $157.74 +0.34% ... actually above their WEEKLY Pivot of $157.12.

Jeff Bailey : 4/10/2007 2:45:50 PM

BIX.X 383.77 +0.10% ... "bound tighter than a roll of quarters"

Jeff Bailey : 4/10/2007 2:42:51 PM

GoldCorp (GG) daily interval bar chart with two (2) nested retracement at this Link

Jane Fox : 4/10/2007 2:39:48 PM

I also subscribe to Bob Brinker's Markettimer and he is bullish and thinks the market will move higher as well. I believe Bob Brinker is the best Market timer out there IMHO.

Jane Fox : 4/10/2007 2:37:38 PM

Here is McMillan's weekly report as of last Friday.

The broad market successfully tested support and moved higher. Specifically, $SPX dropped all the way down to 1410 (intraday), and then managed to stage a rather impressive rally for the remainder of the week. The 1410 area, of course, is what we had previously mentioned as the important level -- and it remains so, although now it is well below current prices. The chart of $SPX has taken on a bullish shape, with higher highs and higher lows. Some are saying that this past week was not representative of the 'true' state of the market since it was a holiday week. That sounds more like an excuse than an analysis. What we do know is that $SPX has exceeded the highs of a couple of weeks ago, and that makes the chart bullish. The next important resistance is the February highs at 1460.

The equity-only put-call ratios have finally succumbed and are now both on buy signals. This is an important intermediate-term development. Moreover, since they're coming from such high levels on their charts, these should be strong signals as well.

Market breadth continues to be a lagging indicator. We have always contended that a new bullish phase should ideally be accompanied by overbought breadth readings, and so we don't see a problem with the oscillators being overbought now.

Finally, the volatility indices have fallen this week, confirming the bullish nature of the market. Furthermore, the volatility futures and options are showing a bullish construct as well -- for the first time in over a month.

In summary, this looks to be a bullish market that can continue higher for some time. There is always geopolitical risk and the risk that 'too much' bullishness will occur again. But for now, there are seemingly plenty of doubters and so we think the market will move higher

Jeff Bailey : 4/10/2007 2:27:38 PM

Goldcorp (GG) $25.80 +1.13% ... slap a retracement on GG from its 10/11/06 low close of $21.13 to its recent 12/04/06 high close of $31.18.

Keene Little : 4/10/2007 2:25:22 PM

The VIX is looking like a bullish setup though (bullish for VIX, bearish for stocks). This is the updated daily chart I showed last week with a potential bullish wave count that calls for a sharp rise. VIX continues to hold at its 200-dma (12.59). Link

The descending wedge pattern, shown on this 30-min chart, looks bullish. It has the bullish divergences supporting this pattern. If this resolves to the upside I think the selling pressure in stocks could be significant. Link

Keene Little : 4/10/2007 2:14:36 PM

Another push higher would also likely get the VIX down near 10.50 which is where I was hoping to see it so that it would set up a higher-confidence longer term short play. I may get my wish if stocks continue higher from here.

Keene Little : 4/10/2007 2:11:13 PM

The other bullish thing I see about NDX is its sideways triangle that has formed since Monday morning's high. If this is a 4th wave correction in the move up from March 29th then it's pointing to the final move up as the 5th wave. It can also be counted as complete so any rally above this morning's high would be bullish for a ride at least up to the 1823 area if not 1839 as I had pointed out earlier on its chart.

Keene Little : 4/10/2007 2:04:30 PM

GOOG is starting to look weaker to me so the additional push up to its downtrend line from January is looking less and less likely. It's beginning to look like this one could waterfall lower. But, if it does push higher then the downtrend line near 477 and the Fibs near 480 are the upside targets. Any higher than that and it should get up near 500. The bearish wave count calls for a decline from here and back into its gap (top of gap is at 464). Link

Keene Little : 4/10/2007 1:57:42 PM

CME thrashed around a bit today and is also now near the flat line. I had mentioned this one could have a real choppy ride between its trend lines. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/10/2007 1:59:41 PM

NDE's Option Montage looks $32.50-ish "Max Pain" to me based on last night's Open Interest Link

Keene Little : 4/10/2007 1:51:42 PM

The RUT continues to give me a different short term picture. It looks like it could run higher before it's set up for at least a deeper pullback. The 821-824 continues to be a potential high for this one. At this point it simply means both sides need to be a little more cautious right now as we have different indices giving different pictures from right here. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/10/2007 1:59:35 PM

NDE could be a pretty good lottery play from the call side into April's expiration. It has been volatile and we've seen some jumps from $30 to $33, then $33 to $30 in quick fashion.

Jeff Bailey : 4/10/2007 1:43:22 PM

Decent volume spike in IndyMac (NDE) $30.30 -3.07% last 10-minutes. WEEKLY S1 right here.

Keene Little : 4/10/2007 1:43:06 PM

We got the minor push higher so now we have the setup for a sell into the close. It's a good spot to go short but you need to have your stop above this morning's high so trade accordingly.

Keene Little : 4/10/2007 1:42:04 PM

The DOW has the same wave counts as SPX. One thing I didn't show on SPX that is shown on the DOW's chart is the possibility for a push higher to the 12700 area that wouldn't necessarily be longer term bullish. It could be the completion of an A-B-C bounce off the March 14th low and that count calls for another big leg down to match the one from the February high. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/10/2007 1:37:24 PM

BIX.X 383.49 +0.03% ... inches back green.

Keene Little : 4/10/2007 1:34:35 PM

Here are the updated counts on SPX with the key levels for the bears to break. A rally above 1451 would be bullish but there's layered resistance above, up to the 1460 area. Link

Keene Little : 4/10/2007 1:27:35 PM

There are small differences in the pattern today but using the DOW and SPX as examples, the bounce off today's low is now a a-b-c bounce. The current leg up (wave-c) needs to be a 5-wave move so one small consolidation here followed by a minor push higher should set us up for the next leg down. This is all very small time frame stuff and therefore subject to more error (may not get the last little push higher) but it would be a good setup. That's the bearish scenario. The bullish scenario says the current bounce will continue higher to new daily highs.

Marc Eckelberry : 4/10/2007 1:21:34 PM

If NDX loses 1780, trendline and 20 DMA, I would say bears take the reins back, Until then, this is normal ebb and flow of a rally.

Jane Fox : 4/10/2007 1:21:22 PM

TICKS +1000

Jeff Bailey : 4/10/2007 1:19:01 PM

01:05 Internals found at this Link

Marc Eckelberry : 4/10/2007 1:17:29 PM

I would definitely NOT bet the bank on the downside. It is a swing trade only, IMHO.

Marc Eckelberry : 4/10/2007 1:10:47 PM

I think bears should be careful on betting too much on a move like last April. The markets never make it that easy. I expect a pullback to all 10 DMA's, which would be normal and nothing to get all bearish about. There are just too many shorts out there looking at the same gaps and the same pattern as last April/May.

Jeff Bailey : 4/10/2007 1:07:18 PM

01:05 Market Watch found at this Link

Keene Little : 4/10/2007 12:58:24 PM

The bullish wave count shown on the NDX 30-min chart here shows upside potential to 1839 if there's a 5th wave up yet to come. Otherwise the bearish wave count shows a decline right around the corner. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/10/2007 12:50:09 PM

Sector Status Changes ... AEROspace reversed up to "bull confirmed" from "bear alert."

BIOMedics reversed up to "bull confirmed" from "bull correction."

MACHinery/Tools reversed up to "bull confirmed" from "bull correction."

PRECious metals reversed up to "bull confirmed" from "bear correction."

Jeff Bailey : 4/10/2007 12:46:14 PM

Bull Confirmed! ... Dorsey/Wright's S&P 500 Bullish % (BPSPX) reversed up to "bull confirmed" from "bear alert" at the conclusion of yesterday's trade at 72.00% bullish.

Keene Little : 4/10/2007 12:43:58 PM

The market is moving in slow motion today (either that or I'm over anxious). But we're getting the small bounce which could be completing soon so watch for the start of the next leg down, which if it goes should be relatively quick--DOW 12500 before the end of the day kind of thing. A rally to a new daily high would have me abandoning the short side for now until I see what's developing.

Jeff Bailey : 4/10/2007 12:41:43 PM

I did see the OptionInvestor.com play list showing the CAT-EA as a possible play.

I think CAT has $72.50 in it by May expiration, I also think those may eventually trade $0.90 at some point.

Today's trade figures out of China may provide some near-term profit taking.

Jeff Bailey : 4/10/2007 12:33:06 PM

DR Horton (DHI) $21.62 -1.90% Link ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/10/2007 12:31:58 PM

D.R. Horton 2Q Orders Fall 37%

AP Story Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/10/2007 12:30:22 PM

Citigroup (C) $52.01 +0.83% ... action here made letting GS go a very difficult one indeed.

Bear Streans (BSC) $147.03 -1.31% ... kind'a the swing vote with BIX.X rather flat.

Jeff Bailey : 4/10/2007 12:27:59 PM

I should probably say that I don't see ANYTHING, or have ANY reason to be bearish GS. Just not seeing the ability to trade $215 by Friday.

Last night, as I looked at the BIX.X, I thought to myself that GS needed to get the break above the $210 strike this morning, and BIX.X needed to clear its WEEKLY Pivot.

Tuesday's can be an important day for pivot traders. For bullishness, need things ABOVE their WEEKLY Pivots.

Keene Little : 4/10/2007 12:24:41 PM

Today's 60-min chart of gold (June contract) shows why I like the short side here. In hindsight I should have just waited for this setup but at least my attempts have only cost me time and commissions. It was a nice call by Marc when he kept saying he was looking for 685. Today's early morning rally took gold above the top of its ascending wedge pattern for a throw-over and in so doing it tagged its Fib level near 686.50 which is also where its downtrend line from May 2006 is located. It was a nice setup so I tried it again by shorting 686. Link

Price has since dropped back down under the top of the wedge so that's a sell signal. It's currently bouncing and looks like it could find resistance at the trend line just above 684. As long as that continues to hold gold down then the next move should be to a new daily low. Filling the gap at 676.80 should happen relatively quickly in that case. My stop is at a new daily high.

Jane Fox : 4/10/2007 12:24:37 PM

I haven't shown these charts in a while but whenever I look at them I am reminded as to how important the VIX is when trading the S&P futures and by extension, the rest of the indexes as well. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/10/2007 12:23:42 PM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made and Watch List at this Link

Closed out the GPY-DB at the bid of $2.45.

Have a Good Til Cancel order to buy back the CAT-EA for less-than, or equal to $0.10/contract.

Jane Fox : 4/10/2007 12:15:52 PM

TRIN continues to make new daily highs and I would not be long here.

Jeff Bailey : 4/10/2007 12:15:43 PM

Swing trade covered call place order alert ... Please place a GTC order to buy back the Caterpillar CAT May $72.50 Call (CAT-EA) for $0.10/contract.

CAT-EA $0.32 x $0.35

CAT $66.81 -0.78% ...

Jane Fox : 4/10/2007 12:00:03 PM

AD volume is falling and the VIX is climbing but both are still within their daily ranges. The TRIN on the other hand is making new daily highs and at 1.24 should have the attention of the bulls.

Jeff Bailey : 4/10/2007 11:56:10 AM

U.S. Files 2 New WTO Cases Against China

AP Story Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/10/2007 11:55:28 AM

China's Trade Surplus Dives In March

AP Story Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/10/2007 11:54:28 AM

Bear Stearns to open in Paris for Europe growth

Reuters Story Link

BSC $147.07 -1.31%

Jeff Bailey : 4/10/2007 11:49:21 AM

Simon Property Group (SPG) $114.03 (unch) ...

Keene Little : 4/10/2007 11:47:52 AM

Looking at the DOW's 30-min chart gives me the impression of a rolling top. This is bearish pattern (think opposite to a saucer at lows) and usually results in a fast decline from it--a waterfalling decline starts off slow and then accelerates lower. A quick drop to 12500 before consolidating would be a typical move from here. We could see another minor bounce before it gets started to the downside (if it gets started).

Jeff Bailey : 4/10/2007 11:45:38 AM

Until the BIX.X can clear 385 at a minimum, "financials" for out-the-money April are going to be a tough trade in my opinion.

Jeff Bailey : 4/10/2007 11:44:11 AM

Bullish call exit alert on the Goldman Sachs GS Apr $210 Call (GPY-DB) at the bid of $2.45.

GS $208.64 -0.14% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/10/2007 11:43:10 AM

My "gut" and the BIX.X are saying move to the sidelines.

Jeff Bailey : 4/10/2007 11:41:11 AM

BIX.X 383.26 -0.02% ... slips red.

Keene Little : 4/10/2007 11:40:41 AM

Banks are back in the red and now the DOW drops into the red. It seems the bears are very timid lately but maybe a few leading the charge here will get others to get out of their caves.

Jeff Bailey : 4/10/2007 11:30:43 AM

Current OPEN MM Profiles that I've made at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/10/2007 11:24:44 AM

11:10 Internals found at this Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/10/2007 11:11:54 AM

11:10 Market Watch found at this Link

Keene Little : 4/10/2007 10:58:40 AM

The stock market seems to be stuck. My bearish bias says distribution. My bearish concern is that it looks like consolidation before pressing higher again. Bearish divergences on just about all time frames tell me the short side is the lower risk side but so far that's not amounting to a hill of beans.

Jeff Bailey : 4/10/2007 10:56:41 AM

Apex Silver Mines (SIL) $14.76 -0.40% ... found some selling at $15.00 strike this morning.

Jeff Bailey : 4/10/2007 10:52:15 AM

Chesapeake Energy (CHK) $33.13 +1.65% ... bulk of properties onshore.

Jeff Bailey : 4/10/2007 10:49:53 AM

Pattern objective points to $10.00.

Jeff Bailey : 4/10/2007 10:48:40 AM

BIIIG volume this morning in the May Nat Gas (ng07k) contract.

Has broken above descending neckline of h/s bottom.

Jeff Bailey : 4/10/2007 10:46:07 AM

US Dollar Index (DXY) 82.65 -0.53% (30-minute delayed) ... sits right on WEEKLY S1.

Jeff Bailey : 4/10/2007 10:44:49 AM

BIX.X high has been 384.40 ... not much above WEEKLY Pivot (384.36).

Jeff Bailey : 4/10/2007 10:41:07 AM

Euro +0.66% and pound +0.56% notably strong against the dollar this morning.

Jeff Bailey : 4/10/2007 10:39:31 AM

USD/JPY 119.06 -0.21% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/10/2007 10:33:35 AM

Nuvelo (NUVO) $5.79 +1.93% ... atop this morning's most active list. Yesterday, stock jumped from Thursday's close of $3.72 to trade as high as $5.84 on rumor that Bayer might take the company's experimental blood clot dissolver for further trials.

Jane Fox : 4/10/2007 10:27:01 AM

I really don't like trading QM, it has too much leverage and moves too fast for me so I am very glad I was able to raise my stop and lessen my risk.

Jane Fox : 4/10/2007 10:24:53 AM

Nope I entered my QM at 61.975.

Keene Little : 4/10/2007 10:24:44 AM

At least the banks are green today although they're off the early morning pop up. They continue to put in lower highs and that will need to break before something more bullish can be declared there.

Jane Fox : 4/10/2007 10:24:22 AM

I will be raising my QM stop now to 61.85. In at 61.950.

Jane Fox : 4/10/2007 10:23:50 AM

VIX to new daily lows and AD Volume to new daily highs. Need I say more?

Jeff Bailey : 4/10/2007 10:19:02 AM

Goldman Sachs (GS) $209.68 +0.35% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/10/2007 10:18:29 AM

Broker/Dealer Index (XBD.X) 240.60 +0.57% ... working on 240 resistance.

Jane Fox : 4/10/2007 10:15:59 AM

TICKS +1000

Keene Little : 4/10/2007 10:10:02 AM

The other thing the bulls need to worry about here is the fact that volume has been dropping during this past week's rally. Yesterday was almost as light as last Thursday, the pre-holiday light trading day. It's not the stuff of new bull rallies but instead the indication of an end to one.

Keene Little : 4/10/2007 10:07:58 AM

One other very short term way to count the NYSE move shows a Fib projection for the small 5th of the 5th wave at 9465. Regardless, this is the area NYSE will top out if it's finishing its rally.

Jeff Bailey : 4/10/2007 10:07:06 AM

I thought it would be a closer race between the NYA.X and Russell 2000 Index (RUT.X) 813.72 +0.25% ... still off its 52-week high close of 829.44.

Keene Little : 4/10/2007 10:04:47 AM

While the rally leg up from March 14th is not pretty (from an EW perspective) in trying to call it an impulsive move but since it doesn't violate any EW rules it needs to be considered. As shown on this NYSE 60-min chart, I've got it counted as a 5-wave move up. What's interesting are the Fib projections for the 5th wave and how they point to the same 9455 area as the big projection on the weekly chart (a projection of the 2000-2002 decline on top of the 2000 high is at 9455). Link

For the move up from March 14th the 5th wave equals the 1st wave at 9456.63. Within the 5th wave its 5th wave equals 162% of the 1st wave at 9457.56. And of course the previous high is at 9463.62. If this rally is to top out soon, this is where it will be. Otherwise once again something a lot more bullish is going on here.

Jeff Bailey : 4/10/2007 10:04:10 AM

All-time high alert ... NYSE Composite ($NYA.X) 9459.01 +0.31% ...

Jeff Bailey : 4/10/2007 10:02:59 AM

PetroChina (PTR) $116.86 +0.81% ... trades ex-dividend.

Jeff Bailey : 4/10/2007 10:02:27 AM

10:00 Market Watch found at this Link

Jane Fox : 4/10/2007 9:58:29 AM

I am trying a long QM position here. This market is testing its overnight highs and looks like it is about to break through. This is a hard market to trade because the leverage is so much that you have to keep a fairly close stop in order to stay within your money management rules.

Jeff Bailey : 4/10/2007 9:54:22 AM

Simon Property Group (SPG) $115.35 +1.15% ... trades WEEKLY R1.

Keene Little : 4/10/2007 9:50:34 AM

You could get your wish Jane since gold will have to break its downtrend line from May 2006, here at 686. Considering the daily oscillators are now into overbought and volume is tailing off on its rally I think it unlikely that it will break that downtrend line now. Maybe after a pullback but that will become clearer depending on the pattern of the pullback. But a rally above 689 would be good confirmation of a break of that resistance and the reason for my stop there.

Jane Fox : 4/10/2007 9:49:48 AM

Here is a picture of your numbers today. Notice ER made a daily high right at its weekly open. Link

Jeff Bailey : 4/10/2007 9:48:39 AM

GSTI Software Index (GSO.X) 190.47 +0.33% ... challenges its 52-week high close from 02/22/07.

Jane Fox : 4/10/2007 9:47:17 AM

Before Gold reaches its yearly highs I think (hope) it will make some sort of retracement that could take it all the way back to its 50EMA. Then again look at the run from early January to its yearly highs. The thing that bothers me about not making a retracement before it gets to its yearly highs is that when it does retrace it is will be violent and very hard to stay the course.

Jane Fox : 4/10/2007 9:43:02 AM

Next Stop is yearly highs. Link

Keene Little : 4/10/2007 9:40:15 AM

If yesterday's high was the end of the rally then this spike up is completing an a-b-c correction to the afternoon drop. If true, get ready for a quick reversal back down. Obviously taking out yesterday's high would be more bullish than that.

Jane Fox : 4/10/2007 9:39:18 AM

AD line a bullish +692, AD Volume climbing, VIX falling. Me thinks the bulls have the ball this morning.

Jane Fox : 4/10/2007 9:36:50 AM

Here is the jtHMA spreadsheet this morning. Notice how the US$ has gone all red now. Link

Keene Little : 4/10/2007 9:26:12 AM

Oil is now at support by its uptrend line from January and 50-dma (61.40). It will need to hold above $61 otherwise it turns bearish, confirmed with a break below its last pullback to $58.50. It bounced off its 50-sma but I don't see enough evidence of bottoming here to suggest buying support but if you feel bullish about oil, this is the area to watch for a long play. Link

Jane Fox : 4/10/2007 9:20:55 AM

These charts show you the influence the US $ has over gold. Oil does as well but to a much lesser extent. Link

Jane Fox : 4/10/2007 9:14:09 AM

It was a relatively volatile overnight session but not giving many clues as to intraday direction. I see ES broke its PDL overnight and YM tested its PDL. ER has made a double bottom at ON lows so that should give you a very good clue as to where its support will be today. Link

Jane Fox : 4/10/2007 9:10:36 AM

BOSTON (MarketWatch) -- D.R. Horton Inc. said Tuesday its cancellation rate remains elevated and that it hasn't seen a rebound in market activity that's typically associated with the spring home-selling season.

D.R. Horton (DHI) said second-quarter cancellations were basically unchanged from the previous quarter at 32%. For the three months ended March 31, the Ft. Worth, Texas-based company said net sales orders dropped 37% to 9,983 homes.

Donald Horton, chief executive at the nation's largest builder of residential homes, in a prepared statement said the spring sales period "has not gotten off to its usual strong start." The assessment is the latest piece of evidence that the hoped-for housing recovery is still on hold.

"Market conditions for new home sales continue to be challenging in most of our markets as inventory levels of both new and existing homes remain high," the CEO said, adding the company still sees the use of more incentives to lure buyers in many of its markets.

Jane Fox : 4/10/2007 9:09:37 AM

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The dollar fell across the board early Tuesday, reversing recent gains amid concerns over the U.S. housing market and rising trade tensions with China.

The dollar had risen to a six-week high against the yen and gained against the euro in previous sessions after a report showed the U.S. economy added many more jobs than expected last month, raising expectations that the Federal Reserve's next move on interest rates may be a further hike rather than a cut.

The dollar "enters a new selling wave" as the U.S. trade action "is fuelling speculation of retaliatory acts from Beijing , which is already reported it will not attend this week's [Group of Seven] meeting in Washington, D.C.," said Ashraf Laidi, chief foreign-exchange analyst at CMC Markets in New York.

Keene Little : 4/10/2007 9:04:54 AM

While equities were basically flat overnight I see the US dollar dropped hard, back down near its lows, and that helped boost the metals to new highs. With gold (YG) having now hit the 78.6% Fib retracement at 686.47, and doing a throw-over above the top of its ascending wedge, I shorted it again at 686 with a stop at 689 for now. This is my last attempt at shorting gold. It needs to turn back down now otherwise we've got something a lot more bullish in progress.

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